Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a account? Log In Mall Indexes- October 2022 Update

Ethan Chernofsky
November 7, 2022 Mall Indexes- October 2022 Update

About the Mall Indexes: These Indexes analyze data from more than 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air lifestyle centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. uses anonymized location information from a panel of 30 million devices and processes the data using industry-leading AI and machine learning capabilities to make estimations about overall visits to specific locations. 

The end of the pandemic was supposed to trigger an extended period of retail success, with brands finally seeing the wider constraints of COVID removed. Yet, with the decline of the pandemic came the rise of significant economic headwinds like rising inflation and gas prices. And so the challenges have continued with the retail sector pushing to cope with a seemingly endless period of volatility. 

But how would malls cope in October following challenging summer months ahead of a critical holiday shopping season?

Falling Short of 2021 Heights

For the third consecutive month, the year-over-year (YoY) visit gap increased for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Lifestyle Centers with the two Indexes down 5.7% and 5.8% respectively. Outlet Malls also saw the continuation of YoY visit gaps, with traffic down 4.8%, a slight increase on September’s 4.7% visit gap. 

However, the declines remained fairly limited in the face of significant economic headwinds, especially when considering the comparison to the unique strength that was seen in October 2021 for all three formats.

Potential to Overperform in 2022

And in fact, the deeper one dives in, the more positive the scenario looks. Comparing these same months to their pre-pandemic equivalents in 2019 shows a much narrower visit gap across the board in October, showing the challenging comparison being made to October 2021. 

But looking at weekly visits reveals the true patterns currently impacting top tier malls and shopping centers. 2021 saw retailers aggressively communicate the need to begin the shopping season earlier than in the past in order to ensure visitors ended up with the products on their wish list in the face of significant supply chain and COVID concerns. The result was higher than normal visits in October. 

Yet, these same pressures do not exist in 2022, and while a healthy portion of consumers do appear to be taking advantage of early shopping, the urgency is not the same. As a result, the weekly YoY visit gap has been shrinking steadily since mid-October, with the visit gap narrowing significantly by the end of the month. And this trend is unlikely to slow as the YoY comparison shifts from a particularly strong October in 2021 to a November that was heavily affected by rising COVID case numbers. 

This could add fuel to a trend that has already been showing itself in October, as visits to all three shopping center formats were up Month-over-Month (MoM) after a difficult September. Indoor Malls saw an increase of 4.0% MoM, while Open-Air Lifestyle Centers and Outlet Malls were up 6.3% and 7.5% respectively. And Outlet Malls could be uniquely well positioned because of their orientation to value in a period of continued inflation.

These shifts are also only part of the reason for optimism. There is a high likelihood that key retail holidays like Black Friday play a bigger role in physical retail in 2022 than they did in 2021 considering the impact of Omicron in 2021. Pushes to handle excess inventory could drive more ‘door buster’ sales that incentivize in-store visits. In addition, the heavy limitations on 2021’s holiday season could power a renewed vigor for brick-and-mortar shopping in 2022 – especially considering the greater emphasis on experiences malls have made in recent years. The ability to provide a ‘full day experience’ alongside external shifts that privilege in-store visits should position all three formats well in the coming months.

Will malls see the culmination of their 2022 bounceback in the holiday season? 

Visit to find out.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Text Link
Indoor Malls
Text Link
Outlet Malls
Pent-Up Demand Ahead of October Sales Events
4 Strategies Retailers are Using to Drive Traffic to Their Venues
5 Key Regional Grocery Players Impressing in 2023
Upscale Kitchenware Trending Up
Costco Finds More Room for Growth
Four C-Store Chains Making an A-Grade
National Parks + Outdoor Summer Activities
Diving Into Darden: Summer 2023 Update
The Summer Event Effect
Messi: Massive in Miami
Looking Back on Back to School 2023
The Anchor Recap: August 2023 Office Index: August 2023 Recap Mall Index: August 2023 Recap White Paper Recap: August 2023
Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte Strikes Again
Big Scoop: We All Scream For Ice Cream
Sports Away: Lululemon & Nike’s Momentum Continues
Summer Visits Heat Up For Recreation and Outdoor Gear Chains
No CSS overwrite - July 2023 Office Index Recap
Staging - August 2023 Mall Indec
Mid-Atlantic Grocery Deep Dive
Experiential Chains Heating Up This Summer
Petco Goes Big by Going Small
Ulta Beauty: Leading the Discretionary Pack
Discount and Dollar Chains Continue to Thrive
Summer of Sports: DICK’s Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports
Off-Price: Succeeding Into Summer
The Anchor Recap: July 2023
Superstores Maintaining Pandemic Gains Amidst Economic Headwinds
2023: Home Improvement at the Halfway Point
July 2023 Office Index Recap Mall Index: July 2023 Recap
widget test
The Taylor Swift Visit Lift
Southwestern Grocery Dive
July 2023 White Paper Recap: Halfway Point Review & Quarterly Index
Yum! Brands: Driving Dining Visits
Slurpees and Summer Movies Stimulate Consumer Foot Traffic
Cool Beans: Summer Coffee Update
Checking In on Back to School 2023
Crocs and New Balance Tip The Scales
Burger Bliss: Shake Shack and In-N-Out Stacking Visits
Chipotle & McDonald's Continue to Reign Supreme
Vibenomics and Partner to Enhance Retail Media In-Store Measurement
California Grocers Here We Come!
Marriott’s Different Audiences
Bonchon and Kura Sushi Thrive in the Fast-Casual Scene
A Shoe In: Footwear Climbs to the Top
Cheers! Raising a Glass to Beverage Retail Office Index: June 2023 Recap Mall Index June 2023 Recap – A Turn of the Tide and a Dive into Open-Air Lifestyle Centers
Local Kitchens: Redefining the Restaurant
Unlocking Urban Insights: The Value in Manhattan’s Employees
Ohio State Parks On The Rise
How is Inflation Impacting the High-Income Shoppers?
Five Fast-Growing Dining Chains
What To Expect From Prime Day and July Sales Events in 2023
The State Of Fashion: How Are Apparel Retailers Faring in 2023?
2023’s Latest Dining Success Story: GEN Korean BBQ House
The NBA Finals: A Location Intelligence Perspective
Moving the Market: The Impact of Domestic Migration on Housing Costs
Post-Pandemic Museum Update
The Darden-est Things
The Enduring Demand for Urban and Suburban Retail
Leveraging Data to Evaluate the Impact of Municipal Investments
Trader Joe's Success Amidst Food Inflation and Changing Consumer Behavior Office Index: May 2023 Recap
Fitness at its Fittest: Staying Strong in 2023
Movie Theaters, Off-Price, and Home Improvement: May 2023 Recap Mall Index - May 2023 Recap
What’s Working for Bath & Body Works?
Why Are Specialty Grocers Thriving in 2023?
The CAVA Craze: A Location Intelligence Perspective on the Mediterranean Marvel
How Will Primark’s US Expansion Impact Target?
All Eyes on Eyewear
Northwestern U.S. Grocery Dive
Return of the Lunch: Salad Chains Are Thriving
Retail Media Networks – Off the Beaten Track
Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Discount and Dollar Stores Drive Foot Traffic
Ulta & Lululemon: Discretionary Spending On The Up
The Score After Q1: Sporting Goods Chains
Who Uses NYC Airports: Biting Into The Big Apple’s Main Transport Hubs
Off Price: Strength in The Face of Retail Challenges
Visits Improve for Home Improvement
Walmart, Target & Wholesalers in Q1 2023 – The Return of Mission-Driven Shopping?
Department Store Roundup: Q1 2023 Office Index: April 2023 Recap Mall Index, April 2023 – A Rebound on the Horizon?
How Will Bed Bath & Beyond’s Bankruptcy Impact the Retail Space?
Buffet Restaurants: Filling Up on Foot Traffic
Thrift Stores: Vintage Visits Drive New Age in Apparel
The Windy City: A Hub of Post-Pandemic Opportunity
Diving into Dining Traffic - Q1 2023
Bring On The Joe
A Dollar (or more) For Your Thoughts: Five Below and pOpshelf
Dining Out With The Cheesecake Factory
Retail Foot Traffic Recap – March 2023
Digging Into 2023: McDonald’s and Chipotle Update Office Index: March 2023 Recap