Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In
Retail

Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2023

How will the current economic climate affect the upcoming holiday shopping season? We dive into the data to find out.

By 
Shira Petrack
October 26, 2023
Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2023
SHARE
Explore our free tools to get timely insights into key industries
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.
Key Takeaways

Economic headwinds have been impacting retail performance for most of 2023. Could Black Friday and the upcoming holiday season bring relief? We dove into the data to find out. 

More Muted Extended Holiday Season

Ongoing inflation and high interest rates resulting in tighter consumer budgets have kept retail visits below 2022 levels since late July. The visit gaps remained relatively small throughout August, when Back-to-School requirements gave families and students a reason to shop, but traffic fell in September after the season ended. And while the year-over-year (YoY) visit gap has narrowed slightly since the beginning of October – perhaps thanks to a slew of early promotions – this year’s early holiday season appears off to a slow start.

But comparing 2023 retail visits to pre-pandemic 2019 numbers reveals the staying power of the extended holiday season that characterized 2021 and 2022. The year-over-four year (Yo4Y) visit gap between mid-August to mid-September was wider than the YoY gap, perhaps due to the different macroeconomic environment in 2023 and 2019. But since the week of September 25th, the Yo4Y visit gap has remained narrower than the YoY visit gap – perhaps because this year’s consumers have already begun buying their gifts. Still, the impact of this year’s early holiday shopping was more muted than in 2022 – so at least some consumers may be waiting for the deeper Black Friday discounts or the urgency of the approaching holidays to begin shelling out for gifts.

The weaker extended holiday season in 2023 also comes through when analyzing the foot traffic performance during Target and Walmart’s recent October sales days. Both chains launched promotional events intended to compete with Amazon’s Prime Day – Target Circle Week on October 1-7 and Walmart Deals Holiday Kickoff on October 9-12. Neither chain received a significant foot traffic boost from these promotions – though there we declines in visit gaps and the impact may have been more pronounced online – which also indicates that many consumers are potentially still holding off on major holiday shopping. 

How Are Key Categories Performing Ahead of Black Friday? 

With some holiday shopping already underway, analyzing recent foot traffic numbers to key retail categories may reveal which categories are likely to come out ahead in Q4. 

As expected, Discount & Dollar Stores have consistently outperformed other sectors throughout the summer and into the fall, and are likely to continue drawing visits from consumers looking to save on both essential and discretionary products. Clothing chains – boosted by the ongoing strength of off-price brands – have also stayed ahead of other sectors and may well see an influx of visits as the end of the year draws near and shoppers look to purchase festive holiday attire. Superstores have also seen smaller YoY visit gaps than some other categories, although visits have slowed down in recent weeks. 

A little more surprisingly, the Office Supplies category is also staying close to its 2022 visit numbers, following a slump at the height of the Back-to-School season when some shoppers likely traded down in favor of Discount & Dollar Stores. Although office supplies are not traditionally a strong contender for holiday-related shopping, the segment’s relative strength could indicate that consumers are still willing to visit specialty stores to purchase brand-name items for specific uses. 

Meanwhile, YoY visit gaps at Recreational & Sporting Goods chains, Electronics Stores, and Department Stores widened significantly since the end of August – but more recent data looks a little more promising, with all three categories now seeing their visit gaps begin to shrink. If this trend continues, a variety of categories may well receive a much-needed Black Friday boost. 

Unknowns Abound Ahead of a Key Holiday Season 

Early October foot traffic data does not seem to offer much information regarding the fate of the upcoming holiday season. Although YoY visit gaps do appear to be shrinking – a sign that the retail space is moving in the right directions – the lack of significant traffic spikes during major promotional events also indicate that most shoppers have yet to get into the holiday spending spirit. The wider macroeconomic uncertainty – including the impact of the reinstatement of student loan payments – also make it difficult to predict the upcoming months. Still, one thing does appear likely: consumers are remaining cautious, and retailers that want to benefit from the traditional holiday retail boost might need to get creative to convince shoppers to walk through their doors. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog

Learn how downtown regions across US cities are measuring up with our free tools.
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.
Explore our free tools to get timely insights into key industries
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.
SHARE
Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week
Subscribe to the newsletter
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Recent Publications

Get 3 brand & industry breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter
Text Link
Black Friday
Text Link
Target
Text Link
Walmart
Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index: Strong Kickoff to the Holiday Season
Placer.ai Office Index: November 2024 Recap
Placer.ai November 2024 Mall Index: Black Friday Boosts Mall Visits
“Glicked” and Moana 2: A Thanksgiving Box Office Surge
‍Placer.ai Ranked Number 160 Fastest-Growing Company in North America on the 2024 Deloitte Technology Fast 500™‍
Jersey Mike’s: On A (Sandwich) Roll
Black Friday Weekend: Plenty of Reason for Cheer
Pre-Thanksgiving Travel & Leisure Visitation Patterns
2024 Pre-Thanksgiving Consumer Traffic Trends 
Turkey Wednesday 2024: A Veritable Grocery Feast 
Starbucks’ Red Cup Day Makes a Comeback 
Eatertainment in Q3 2024: Dave & Buster’s and Chuck E. Cheese
Dollar Stores Ahead of the Holidays
Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: A Pre-Holiday Snapshot
Kroger: Getting into The Seasonal Swing 
Avison Young Launches Office Busyness Index Powered by Placer.ai to Provide Unmatched Insights on Office Utilization Across Major U.S. Markets
Off-Price Ahead of the 2024 Holiday Season
A Beautiful Season Ahead: Ulta and Sally Beauty Supply
Sportswear Ahead of the 2024 Holiday Season 
Placer 100 Index: October 2024 Recap 
Placer.ai Office Index: October 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: October 2024 Recap 
Halloween’s 2024 Retail & Dining Impact – Party City Carries the Season
Checking in With Department Stores: Nordstrom and Macy’s
Superstores and Wholesale Clubs Ahead of the Holidays
Home Depot and Lowe’s Heading Into the Holidays
Starbucks and Dutch Bros: Short Visits Lead the Way
Planet Fitness: Raising the Bar(bell)
Checking in With Full-Service Restaurants: First Watch, Chili’s, and Outback Steakhouse
RBI and Yum!: QSR Resilience in 2024
Boot Barn and DSW: Stepping Up Their Game
Target’s October Circle Week: A Data-Driven Snapshot
Chipotle, Shake Shack & Wingstop: Dining Success in Q3 2024
Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe: Berry Big Business
Cheesecake Factory & BJ’s Restaurants: Full-Service Success
Checking in on McDonald's and Wendy's 
Sprouts Farmers Market: A Specialty Grocer With a Traditional Twist
CAVA: The Craze Continues
Placer.ai Reaches $100M Annual Recurring Revenue
Catching Up With Carter's 
A Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse Showdown
Placer.ai Mall Index: September 2024 Recap – Labor Day Peaks and Holiday Season Predictions
Albertsons Q3 Check-In
Looking Ahead to the 2024 Holiday Season
Trader Joe's: Continuing to Thrive in 2024
Bowlero and AMF: A Ten-Pin Knockout
Recreational Retail: Store Performance in 2024
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – September 2024
A QSR and Fast-Casual Face-Off
Sam’s Club’s In-Store Retail Media Network Opportunity
The Rising Stars: Six Metro Areas Welcoming Young Professionals
Costco in 2024: A Deep Dive
Sherwin-Williams in 2024: Brighter Than a New Lick of Paint
Life Time and Orangetheory: Premium Fitness Flourishing
C-Stores: More Than A Pit Stop
Darden: Dining Dominance Undeterred 
Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining: August 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Office Index: August 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: August 2024 Recap – Back-To-School In Full Swing
Auto Parts Retailers: The Traffic Continues
Pumpkin Spice Works its Magic Once Again
School Season Sparks Retail Growth
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – July & August 2024
Big Lots’ Big Rightsizing Move in Four Data Points
Fun Away From The Sun: Checking in With Eatertainment
Domestic Migration and Population Growth: Strong Currents Off The Carolina Coast
The Civic Impact of Summer Events
Retail Trends in College Towns: A Back-to-School Snapshot
Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: Consumers Still on the Hunt for Discounts
Macy’s & Bloomingdale’s: Into 2024 and Beyond
Limited Time Only: The Trend Continues
Beauty in 2024: Many Ways to Win
Dollar General & Dollar Tree: Powering Ahead in Q2 2024
The Home Depot and Lowe's Foot Traffic Remodel in Q2 2024
Superstore Update: Summer Savings Spree
Placer.ai Mall Index: July 2024 Recap – From Fourth of July to Back-to-School
Placer.ai Office Index: July 2024 Recap
Summer Movie Madness: Blockbuster Films Boost Foot Traffic
Driving Success: Toyota in 2024
Denny’s and IHOP: An All-Day Breakfast Matchup
Warby Parker: Seeing Clearly Now
Planet Fitness at the 2024 Halfway Point
Serving Summer 2024: RBI and Yum! Brands Q2 Foot Traffic
Starbucks, Dutch Bros., Dunkin’: Finding Summer Success
Fast Food and Fast Casual Favorites, Plus CosMc’s Takeoff
Chipotle and Sweetgreen: Fast-Casual in Q2 2024
First Watch, Texas Roadhouse, and Applebee’s: An FSR Roundup
Albertsons Companies: H1 2024 Recap
Teaming Up For Success: Sports Stadium Sponsorships
Limited Time Offers: Price Wars Boost Visits
Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: June 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: June 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Office Index: June 2024 Recap
Inside Out 2: The New Blockbuster Bringing Crowds Back to Theaters
Petco and PetSmart: A Head to Head
Frozen Delights: Exploring Ice Cream Chains Across America
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – June 2024
Barnes & Noble: Writing a New Story
Small Format Stores - Sprouting, Blooming, and Expanding
Retail and Dining on Father’s Day