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Target's visits shot up over the pandemic – but the chain has struggled to maintain its COVID-era momentum in recent years. Now, the upcoming back-to-school season presents an opportunity for the chain to bring visits back up.
Target's visits shot up between 2020 and 2022 as Americans stuck at home stocked up on everything from home goods to snacks to sporting equipment. But traffic has slowed since mid-2022, and although Target's visit gap has narrowed recently – May '25 visits were down just 1.7% YoY, a significant improvement from February's 9.1% YoY visit gap – year-over-year (YoY) visits were still down for five of the last six months.
Now, the upcoming back-to-school season may present just the opportunity the retailer needs to swing back into visit growth.
August is Target's second-busiest month of the year (the first is December), as the retailer sees visit upticks from everyone from families looking for back-to-school supplies to students getting ready for a new semester and renters switching leases. This seasonal strength offers more than just high traffic volume – it presents a unique comeback opportunity.
And August isn't just one of Target's busiest months – recent August traffic trends have also outperformed the broader twelve-month pattern.
While Target's overall YoY visit gap has widened over the past year (visits dropped 3.0% between June '24 and May '25 compared to the previous 12-month period, versus a smaller 2.2% decline in the prior year comparison), August's YoY visit gap has narrowed. This may suggest that shoppers who've reduced their Target visits throughout the year still prioritize the retailer during back-to-school season.
This creates a strategic window: Target can leverage this seasonal loyalty by enhancing its in-store experience and product selection during summer months, potentially winning back customers who might otherwise shop elsewhere during the rest of the year.
Families – especially middle and high-income families – make up a significant share of Target's captured market throughout the year. August is no exception – almost half (43.2%) of Target's captured market was made up of just four family segments in August '24 (according to Spatial.ai PersonaLive audience segmentation). Still, this is slightly lower than the 43.4% of family segments in Target's captured market between June '24 and May '25 – indicating that Target's August strength extends beyond its traditional family base.
Meanwhile, the share of single segments in Target's captured markets, which stood at 19.6% over the past twelve months, was up to 20.4% in August '24. So the retailer's summer boost is also driven by college students, young professionals, and other single shoppers – and these consumers may be looking for a different product mix and shopping experience than the traditional back-to-school fare.
Families remain Target's largest visitor segment, so the company should continue meeting the needs of this audience by offering a one-stop back-to-school destination along with BOPIS and curbside pickup to accommodate parents' busy lifestyles.
But the company can also make sure its offerings and shopping experience is set up to meet the needs of its Gen Z and millennial visitors when planning its back to school campaigns and in-store set up. Curating a "Singles & Students" section, carrying compact furniture and dorm room essentials, and setting up Instagram-worthy product displays may help these shoppers see Target as their retail home – building loyalty and boosting Target's traffic throughout the year.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Stanford Stadium has hosted numerous major sporting events over the years – from Super Bowl XIX to soccer matches at the 1984 Summer Olympics, and both the 1994 Men’s and 1999 Women’s World Cup. But on May 31st and June 1st, 2025, Coldplay played the first live music event ever held at the venue – part of the band’s “Music of the Spheres” tour – and what a debut it was.
We examined the data to see how attendance spiked during this landmark concert and how the audience compared to the stadium’s usual visitor base.
During the week of May 26th, 2025, when Coldplay took the stage, visits to Stanford Stadium surged by an astonishing 1425.9% compared to the venue’s weekly average since June 2024. Other recent major events – including Stanford commencement (June 16th, 2024), the big Earthquakes vs. Galaxy MLS match (June 29th, 2024), and the Stanford Cardinal’s own home opener against TCU on August 30th, 2024 – all drew much smaller crowds than the Coldplay concert.
Concertgoers came from far and wide to see Coldplay in action. Plenty of locals attended, including 15.1% who came from less than five miles away. But nearly one-fifth of visitors journeyed more than 100 miles to enjoy the music – a testament to the band’s strong draw.
To understand how the Coldplay concert impacted Stanford Stadium’s visitor profile, we compared the psychographics of Stanford Stadium’s captured market during the 2024 football season (August 24th to December 1st, 2024) to those during the Coldplay concert.
Across both analyzed periods, Stanford Stadium attracted higher-than-average shares of Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Educated Urbanites,” and “Young Professionals” segment groups. However, the concert’s audience skewed more toward “Ultra Wealthy Families,” whereas football fans were nearly twice as likely to be “Young Professionals” and slightly more likely to be “Educated Urbanites”. “Near-Urban Diverse Families” and “Wealthy Suburban Families” were underrepresented in the stadium’s market during both periods, though they both constituted a slightly higher share during the Coldplay concert – further underscoring the event’s power to attract different audiences than usual.
As universities navigate the changing nature of college athletics, NIL rights, and shifting revenue streams, using a football stadium as a concert venue is a creative way to utilize the space and bring in some dollars – as well as joy to both students and other visitors. Is this milestone event a precursor to more major cultural happenings at the Bay Area stadium?
For more data-driven live event analyses, follow The Anchor.
Nike has recently pivoted away from its "Consumer Direct Acceleration" strategy in favor of a more multi-channel distribution approach. What does the data say about this shift? We dove into traffic numbers and audience composition metrics to find out.
In 2020, Nike introduced its "Consumer Direct Acceleration" strategy that had aimed to expedite the company's DTC pivot in an effort to regain control of the brand and own the customer relationship directly. But the emphasis on owned channels did not yield the desired results – in fact, the move away from wholesale may have helped smaller sneaker companies take over shelf space and market share from the legacy sportswear brand.
In mid-2023, Nike shifted to a more balanced, multi-channel approach, and by late 2023, Nike was once again selling its products through retail partners such as DSW and Macy's. More recently, in May 2025, Nike announced that it would be resuming direct sales on Amazon – a channel the brand exited in 2019 – in an effort to reach customers where they shop.
Diving into year-over-year monthly traffic numbers for Nike stores nationwide underscores the merits of the recent strategic shift. Visits to Nike stores have been trending negative for eight months straight, validating the recent company-wide pivot back towards a more holistic, multi-channel approach.
Using Spatial.ai PersonaLive data to compare the audience composition in Nike's captured market with the audience composition in some captured markets of some of its largest retail partners further highlights the advantages of Nike's new multi-channel approach.
The data shows that Nike already does a great job of reaching "Ultra Wealthy Families," "Young Professionals," and "Educated Urbanites" through its owned stores – the share of these segments in Nike's trade area is larger than in the trade areas of any of its main partners. But both DSW and DICK's Sporting Goods reach more suburban families than Nike, with a larger share of "Wealthy Suburban Families" and "Upper Suburban Diverse Families" in their trade areas than in Nike's. And Macy's and Foot Locker seem to be better positioned to reach "Near-Urban Diverse Families" and "Young Urban Singles".
The distinct audience composition of each retail partner suggests that a varied wholesale approach is necessary to achieve comprehensive market coverage, allowing Nike to reach a far broader spectrum of consumers than its own stores can capture alone.
Nike's return to a multi-channel approach suggests that achieving comprehensive market coverage requires a balanced strategy, leveraging partners to engage with a broader spectrum of consumers in addition to building out owned DTC channels.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
In today’s challenging dining market, restaurants are battling for consumer attention through special deals, limited time offers (LTOs), and pop-culture collaborations. We dove into the data to see how several special recent events at Chipotle, IHOP, and Jack in the Box helped drive visits to these chains.
Earlier this year, Chipotle leaned into the Stanley Cup excitement with an LTO designed especially for hockey fans. On Monday, April 21st, 2025 – just two days after the start of Round 1 playoffs – Chipotle offered one of its classic BOGO (buy one get one free) deals for anyone wearing a hockey jersey who dined at a participating location after 3:00 PM.
Nationwide, the promotion sparked a substantial 34.4% visit boost during the hours of the offer compared to an average Monday. But in Minneapolis-St. Paul, at the heart of the so-called “State of Hockey”, visits surged by an astonishing 77.3% – the most seen in any metro area throughout the U.S. – underscoring just how impactful relevant LTOs can be in the right market.
It’s no secret that everybody loves free stuff. But another recent LTO shows that people also embrace the chance to do good. On March 4th, 2025, hungry diners flocked to IHOP restaurants nationwide to snag free pancakes – no purchase required! – at participating locations. The promotion, part of the chain’s month-long charitable drive, encouraged guests to donate to Feeding America.
IHOP’s promotion spurred visit increases across the country. But it struck a particular chord in certain northeastern markets – especially in New Jersey, where a local franchise owner’s interviews about the event’s charitable aspect helped motivate a remarkable 142.5% visit spike. And on the West Coast, particularly in California, the promotion’s success was supported by the chain’s “20k for Pancake Day” event in Santa Monica, held on March 1, 2025 to raise money for Feeding America, which garnered substantial media coverage.
But freebies aren’t the only way to drive traffic. On May 29th, 2025, Jack in the Box created plenty of buzz with the launch of its late-night T-Pain Munchie Meal, available after 9:00 PM. By the week of June 2nd, hungry night owls were flocking to Jack in the Box in droves, driving substantial increases in late-night traffic.
The late-night offer increased the proportion of nighttime visits to 25.1% during the week of June 2nd, compared to a 12-month average of 23.0%. The largest nighttime visit increase came on Thursday, June 5th, likely due to excitement for T-Pain’s June 6 debut in “Jack Zone Wars,” a custom in-game Fortnite world built specifically for this collaboration. And with T-Pain’s June 26th live-stream Fortnite event still ahead, momentum will likely continue to build as the month wears on.
These recent promotions at Chipotle, IHOP, and Jack in the Box highlight the power of well-timed, relevant LTOs to create excitement and boost traffic. By tapping into local cultural trends, charitable causes, and pop-culture collaborations, restaurants can stay top of mind – even in a crowded dining market.
For more data-driven dining insights follow The Anchor.
Since its emergence from bankruptcy in late 2020, JCPenney has been on a slow and steady comeback trajectory. Last year, the company continued closing underperforming stores and revamped its loyalty program, which helped it achieve a year-over-year (YoY) visit gap of just 3.0% and a YoY gap in average visits per location of just 1.8% in Q4 2024.
Part of last year's success was likely also due to the company's investments in major promotional efforts – and now JCPenney is back in the advertising game with its new "Yes, JCPenney" national ad campaign. We dove into the data to see how these marketing efforts are bearing fruit.
Although JCPenney has been gradually improving its metrics, the chain generally underperformed the department store category for most of 2024 – until traffic turned around in October and November 2024, at the height of the brand's "Really Big Deals Reveals" campaign. Visits to JCPenney then declined below the category average again, with the chain underperforming the category between December 2024 and March 2025 – with the exception of February, when the chain's "Petite Power List" campaign may have temporarily boosted visits.
But recently, the company launched a major nationwide campaign titled "Yes, JCPenney," with the goal of challenging and overcoming outdated consumer perceptions of the brand. The ads started running in April 2025, and traffic to the chain picked up significantly – with year-over-year (YoY) visits to JCPenney up 0.7% and 3.0% in April and May 2025, respectively.
Diving into May 2025 YoY traffic to the chain by DMA indicates that the "Yes, JCPenney" has been met with broad success, with the chain seeing visit strength across the country. The visit increases were especially notable in the South and Midwest – with DMAs in South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas seeing major lifts – suggesting that the focus on style and value connected deeply with consumers in these regions.
Diving into the recent audience shifts at JCPenney suggests that part of the campaign's success may be attributed to its resonance with single shoppers. Using the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that nationwide, the share of "Singles and Starters" in JCPenney's captured market edged up slightly from 11.2% in May 2024 to 11.3% in May 2025, while the share of "Significant Singles" rose from 4.4% to 4.7%.
And though these nationwide shifts are relatively small ones, in some DMAs where JCPenney saw a particularly notable YoY visit increase, the share of singles in the chain’s trade area increased more significantly. For example, May YoY data shows that JCPenney visits in New York, NY, increased by 9.8%, while the share of "Significant Singles" grew from 22.7% to 26.1%. And in Tyler-Longview, TX, visits increased 18.0% YoY in May 2025 while the share of "Singles and Starters" rose from 12.8% to 14.0% in the same period.
JCPenney's success in increasing its resonance with single consumers – who are likely younger, and who may be less familiar with the legacy brand – suggests that the "Yes, JCPenney" campaign may be attracting a new generation of shoppers to the chain.
The initial surge in May 2025 foot traffic, particularly among younger, single shoppers, is quite promising. Will the company succeed in converting shoppers brought in through the "Yes, JCPenney" campaign into sustained visitors and loyal customers?
Keep up with The Anchor to find out.
Apparel retail has experienced significant setbacks in recent years, from the COVID-19 pandemic to supply chain disruptions to inflation – and now the emerging threat of tariffs. Yet, the sector continues to adapt. We took a look at the overall performance of the luxury apparel segment to see how things are holding up as the year's first half draws to a close.
The current economic climate has posed significant challenges to the apparel retail segment, and luxury retail has not been immune. The category saw its visits slow year-over-year throughout 2024, likely owing to the accumulated strain of inflation and rising prices. Yet, a surprising opportunity is now emerging, stemming from an unexpected catalyst: tariff concerns.
While apparel visits (excluding the off-price segment) generally slowed year-over-year, luxury apparel experienced only a single month of visit declines – in February '25 – likely owing to the comparison to a leap year and a longer February 2024. And more recently, luxury apparel has been performing especially well, with the segment seeing year-over-year (YoY) increases of 4.7% and 4.4% in April and May 2024, respectively – perhaps driven by the risk of price hikes and the uncertainty around the current tariff landscape.
Diving into the audience composition for nationwide luxury brands reveals that the category's current strength is likely driven in part by a more affluent and more suburban consumer base. Over the past four years, the median household income (HHI) in luxury chains' captured market has increased – rising from $101.9K in May 2025 to $108.0K in May 2025. During this period, the share of suburban consumers in the category's trade area also grew, from 39.1% in May 2022 to 41.9% in May 2025.
This suggests that the luxury sector's current resilience is being powered by an increasingly affluent and suburban clientele who are likely better insulated from broader economic pressures.
Despite operating in a challenging environment, luxury retail is finding ways to keep its visits up. Will the segment continue to rally?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
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As consumer sentiment hovers near historic lows and the cost of goods remains elevated, value has become a defining theme across the dining industry. Yet within the sector's diverse restaurant categories – and for individual brands – the question is no longer whether consumers are seeking value, but what value actually means. A closer look at chains across the industry suggests that, amid ongoing economic pressure, perceptions of value are evolving. For some consumers, value may be tied to affordability and promotions; for others, it may come from quality, convenience, or experience. The result is a market with multiple paths to winning consumer traffic.
After an uneven but largely resilient 2025, dining traffic in 2026 tipped into a sustained decline.
Monthly visits to the overall dining industry have trailed year-ago levels throughout 2026, with February standing as the lone exception. That month saw a 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) increase in visits, driven in part by comparisons to the period of initial tariff announcements in early 2025. But broader trends remained challenged, and May's 2.5% YoY decline marked the steepest monthly drop of the past twelve months as rising gas prices and weakening consumer sentiment appear to have added pressure to an industry already navigating a difficult environment.
These headwinds, though, have not landed evenly. Across the dining sector, some segments have faced more intense pressure than others, with much of the divide coming down to how consumers are perceiving value against experience.
Over the past several years, inflation and rising menu prices have gradually weakened a cost-based value proposition that has long been central to the QSR segment. More recently, elevated gas prices have added another deterrent, making a trip through the drive-thru a less compelling choice for some consumers.
Strong performance at grocery stores and superstores suggests that competition for share-of-stomach is increasingly extending beyond traditional restaurant rivals. With expanding selections of ready-to-eat and pre-prepared meals, these channels are offering consumers a combination of value, convenience, and quality that can increasingly match limited-service dining options. At the same time, ongoing pressure on household budgets appears to be driving more consumers toward lower-cost meals made at home, creating additional headwinds for the QSR segment.
Yet for many consumers, there is still a time and place for dining out, and in the face of mounting economic pressure, several dining formats have found foot traffic success. Fine dining has posted traffic growth in nearly every month of 2026, with March standing as the lone exception. That decline was likely influenced by a calendar shift, as March 2026 contained one fewer Saturday than March 2025 – a meaningful headwind for full-service restaurants given the outsized role weekends play in driving visits. The segment's sustained growth points to the resilience of higher-income consumers and the enduring appeal of premium, occasion-driven dining experiences.
Fast casual and casual dining have also proven relatively resilient. The fast casual category saw positive YoY foot traffic in every month of 2026 so far, while casual dining's performance has rebounded since the March calendar shift that likely weighed on YoY traffic. A second calendar shift in May 2026 led to an extra Saturday in the month, which likely helped the segment's overall trend. These trends suggest that both fast casual and casual dining occupy an increasingly attractive middle ground where value is defined as a combination of affordability and experience. At the same time, years of menu price hikes at QSR chains have altered the cost equation in fast casual and casual dining's favor, narrowing the price gap between fast food and more elevated dining formats. As that gap has narrowed, consumers may be placing greater emphasis on experience and quality when deciding where to dine.
The balance between price and elevated experience has made fast casual a favorite for value in the dining industry in 2026. A closer look at two of the segment's largest players, CAVA, a relatively young concept, and Chipotle, a legacy chain navigating operational challenges, shows how brands can deliver on that value proposition in different ways and win in today’s dining landscape.
Chipotle's traffic trends in 2026 have improved compared to 2025, with the brand offering a clear example of how fast casual brands can create value by pairing menu innovation with loyalty perks.
Chipotle outpaced the broader fast casual category in YoY visits nearly every week of 2026 so far. And the graph below shows that the chain's strongest traffic gains tended to coincide with major menu launches and loyalty initiatives – a key component of its ongoing "Recipe for Growth" strategy.
The return of fan-favorite Chicken al Pastor in the week of February 9, 2026 helped drive a 16.6% YoY increase in visits. Two months later, the launch of "Rewards on Repeat" – a refreshed loyalty program offering freebies upon sign-up – generated the period's largest weekly traffic gain, with visits rising 18.2% YoY. And the introduction of Honey Chicken on April 28 provided another boost, as the chain continued to rotate limited-time protein offerings and give customers reasons to return.
These performance peaks suggest that Chipotle has been particularly effective at pairing menu novelty with loyalty perks to reinforce a value proposition anchored by quality and experience.
Year-over-Year Change in Weekly Visits, Chipotle vs. Fast Casual, Jan.–Jun. 2026
Dashed lines mark key Chipotle promotional launch dates. Week-of dates shown; launches may have occurred mid-week.
If Chipotle illustrates the power of menu innovation and loyalty-driven engagement, CAVA highlights a different approach to creating value – one rooted in variety, customization, and a consistently differentiated dining experience.
CAVA's overall visits climbed well above 20% YoY in every month of 2026, a pace largely driven by aggressive unit expansion. Meanwhile, same-store visits, which measure traffic at locations open for at least twelve months, sustained positive YoY growth – evidence of genuine demand at existing restaurants alongside a rapidly growing footprint.
While Chipotle leans on limited-time offers, CAVA's growth rests on a consistent, customizable experience. A deep roster of proteins paired with a wide range of bases, dips, and toppings, gives the chain built-in variety that helps keep the concept feeling fresh. In addition, CAVA's Mediterranean-inspired menu offers flavors and combinations that are less easily replicated at home, helping the brand maintain a differentiated experiential value proposition and drive growth.
O Though Chipotle and CAVA are at different points in their evolution and have taken different paths to growth, both highlight the enduring appeal of fast casual's balance of value and quality. In a dining environment where consumers are increasingly weighing cost against experience, the segment's ability to deliver on both has helped make it one of the industry's strongest-performing formats.
Fast casual isn't the only dining segment benefiting from consumers' evolving perception of value. In 2026, several casual dining chains have found success by pairing accessible price points with the elevated experience of a sit-down meal.
Brands such as BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse, Chili's Grill & Bar, Bonefish Grill, Cicis, and The Cheesecake Factory all posted positive YoY visit growth in multiple months this year, demonstrating that even in a challenging economic environment, diners are motivated when they feel they are getting more in return. These results are particularly notable given the impact of calendar shifts, which weighed on March 2026 comparisons – and provided a tailwind to May performance.
Unlike many fast casual chains, these brands have not relied heavily on a steady stream of limited-time offers to drive traffic. While menu innovation remains part of the playbook, promotions often serve as ticket builders or engagement tools rather than primary traffic catalysts. Instead, these successful casual dining chains have focused on creating everyday value that diners can depend on, narrowing the price gap between limited-service restaurants and full-service dining.
The result is a value equation that encompasses table service, a more relaxed dining environment, and a place to socialize or celebrate an occasion. In an environment where consumers are increasingly weighing cost against overall experience, that combination appears to be helping several casual dining chains maintain positive traffic momentum.
Although dining traffic has softened in 2026, the industry's performance suggests that consumers have not stopped spending on restaurants altogether. Instead, they have become more selective about where they dine and what they expect in return.
Across segments, the strongest performers have found different ways to deliver value. For some brands, that means menu innovation, loyalty engagement, and differentiated experiences. For others, it means dependable affordability paired with the service and atmosphere of a sit-down meal. As economic pressures continue to shape consumer behavior, the data suggests that value is no longer defined by price alone, but by the balance of cost, convenience, quality, and experience.
During the pandemic and its aftermath, Americans were on the move. Millions left expensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt, while boomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with the influx of new residents.
That wave of relocation has since cooled, as return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage rates, and a shrinking affordability gap between coastal cities and many COVID-era hotspots have dampened the incentive to move. But even in a slower market, domestic migration remains one of the most powerful forces shaping local economies, housing markets, and consumer demand.
This report leverages AI-powered location analytics to examine the relocation patterns reshaping the United States in 2026 – where Americans are moving, the demographic and economic forces driving those decisions, and how retailers, investors, developers, and policymakers can respond to the opportunities and challenges created by these shifts.
Which major metros are attracting the most new residents? Which pandemic-era standouts have seen growth stall or reverse? And what factors best predict a large metro area's domestic migration growth potential in 2026?
The latest statewide migration data shows that the slower relocation pace observed in 2024 persisted into 2025. No state recorded net inflows or outflows exceeding 0.7% of its starting population. And while several smaller states continued to attract new residents at meaningful rates, none of the nation's six most populous states saw net in-migration exceed 0.2%.
Among those smaller states, South Carolina and Delaware led the nation with net in-migration equal to 0.7% of their populations, followed by Idaho (0.6%), Maine (0.5%), Tennessee (0.4%), and North Carolina (0.3%). For most of these states, migration accelerated relative to 2024, though Delaware's inflow rate moderated slightly and North Carolina held steady.
Despite their differences, these states tend to offer a similar mix of lifestyle amenities, relatively low congestion, and opportunities for growth. Many also benefit from business-friendly climates, favorable tax policies, or housing costs that remain attractive relative to the higher-cost markets from which they draw new residents.
At the other end of the spectrum was Vermont, which saw the nation’s largest net outflow as share of population in 2025, losing 0.4% of its population to domestic relocation. The decline deepens a reversal that first emerged in 2024, when the state swung to a net loss of 0.2%, after attracting inflows of 0.8% and 0.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Vermont's reversal likely reflects a combination of factors, including return-to-office mandates and the waning appeal of remote work. Housing undersupply in the state may have also contributed, illustrating how important infrastructure investments are to sustaining migration gains over time.
Among the nation's six most populous states, Florida was the only one to see accelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents equal to 0.2% of its starting population, up from 0.1% the year before. Texas, by contrast, slowed from 0.1% net in-migration in 2024 to essentially flat in 2025, highlighting the cooling of what was once one of the country's strongest pandemic-era migration magnets.
Meanwhile, the legacy "exodus" states continue to lose residents, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Illinois and California have seen their migration deficits steadily narrow, with further improvement in 2025. Between 2022 and 2025, Illinois moved from -0.8% → -0.2% → -0.2% → -0.1%, while California moved from -0.9% → -0.4% → -0.3% → -0.2%. And though New York has held steady at -0.2% over the past two years, this marks a significant moderation from 2022, when the state experienced net outmigration equal to 1.1% of its population.
Statewide trends reveal important shifts, but a closer look at the nation's ten largest metropolitan areas suggests that broader interstate averages increasingly mask diverging local realities. Several metros are attracting residents through interstate domestic migration even when their states as a whole are experiencing little or no net migration growth.
Phoenix (+0.3%), for example, stood out as the nation's top-performing large metro in 2025, despite Arizona's absence from the list of leading migration destinations – with the majority of its inflow coming from out of state.
Dallas (+0.2%) ranked second, continuing its rebound from -0.1% in 2023 even as Texas' statewide migration gains cooled. Like Phoenix, Dallas drew a majority of its new residents from outside the state, underscoring its growing appeal as a national migration destination. Houston, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, falling from 0.1% net in-migration in 2023 to -0.1% in 2025. While it is too early to call this a sustained reversal, the divergence between the two metros may reflect Dallas's growing pull as a corporate magnet alongside rising housing costs and weather-related challenges in Houston.
Metro-level data also suggests that the pandemic-era "big-city exodus" narrative is continuing to fade. Los Angeles improved from -0.8% in 2023 to -0.3% in 2025, while New York held steady at -0.3% after improving in 2024. Even Miami (-0.6%), which ranked last among major metros despite Florida's continued statewide gains, saw its outflows moderate from 2023 levels. And while Illinois continued to post net outmigration, Chicago (0.0%) reached migration neutrality in 2025 after recording losses in both 2023 and 2024.
Despite Miami's struggles – and Florida’s relatively modest 0.2% inflow – a look beyond the top 10 large metros reveals that the Sunshine State is home to six of the nation's eight fastest-growing large metros nationwide.
Those top-performing metros, defined as CBSAs with 500K+ residents that added at least 0.8% of their population through net domestic migration over the past year, share a similar profile: lower housing costs, retiree appeal, suburban density, and an easy drive to a larger economic hub.
Much of the growth of these Florida metro areas, however, is being fueled from within Florida itself. While major out-of-state metros such as New York (6.1%) and Chicago (2.0%) remained important sources of new residents, nearly half of the net migration into Florida's top destination metros came from elsewhere in the state. In 2025, Miami (22.5%), Orlando (13.0%), Tampa (5.8%), and Naples (4.2%) together accounted for 45.5% of the net positive migration feeding these fast-growing markets.
The migration flows feeding the nation’s fastest-growing large metros suggest that affordability remains a powerful driver of domestic relocation.
In 2025, seven of the eight top destination metros analyzed above had lower typical home values than their largest feeder markets. Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL, for example, had a typical home value of $313.4K in December 2024, compared with $404.9K in Orlando and $380.2K in Tampa – its two largest sources of net migration. Even North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL – the most expensive Florida metro in this group – drew its largest share of net migration from the New York metro area, where home values are substantially higher.
The lone exception was Charleston–North Charleston, SC, whose largest source of net migration was Baltimore – a market with lower typical home values than the destination. Even in Charleston, however, affordability appears to have played a role. New York, a significantly more expensive market, ranked a close second in 2025, accounting for 6.5% of net positive migration into Charleston, just behind Baltimore’s 6.8%.
While housing costs are only one factor influencing migration decisions, the data suggests that households continue to gravitate toward markets where homeownership is comparatively more attainable than in the places they leave behind.
Typical Home Values* in Top Feeder Markets to Destination Hubs, 2025
*Typical home value based on Zillow Research’s Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for Dec. 2024, immediately preceding the analyzed migration period (Jan.–Dec. 2025).
But as important as affordability is in explaining today’s domestic migration patterns, age appears to be an even stronger determinant of where people choose to relocate.
Among mid-sized and large metros (250K+ residents) experiencing significant population shifts – defined as gaining or losing at least 1.0% of their starting population through domestic migration over the past two years – households are increasingly moving toward older, more established communities.
The data reveals a clear negative relationship between migration performance and age differential – a metric calculated by subtracting the median age of the destination market from the weighted median age of its feeder markets. Negative values indicate movement toward older communities, while positive values indicate movement toward younger ones. In other words, the metros attracting the strongest migration inflows tend to be older than the markets sending them residents.
The data also shows a clear positive relationship between migration performance and retiree concentration. Metros with larger shares of residents aged 65 and older generally saw stronger migration gains over the past two years, while younger metros tended to attract fewer newcomers. This suggests that retiree-driven relocation has become an increasingly important driver of migration. At the same time, the influx of younger residents points to the broader appeal of these communities, which offer a mix of affordability, amenities, and lifestyle advantages.
Net Migration as Share of Starting Population, 2024–2025*
*Analysis includes metro areas with 250K+ residents and domestic migration gains or losses of at least 1.0% during the study period. Weighted Age Differential compares the destination market’s median age with the weighted median age of origin markets, with positive values indicating migration toward younger markets and negative values indicating migration toward older markets. Age data: Census ACS 2020–2024.
The pandemic-era urban exodus is giving way to a more nuanced migration landscape. Large urban markets are stabilizing, while growth is increasingly concentrated in smaller states, secondary metros, and intra-state corridors. Affordability remains a powerful pull, but retirees, lifestyle considerations, and local market dynamics are also playing an increasingly important role in where Americans choose to live.
To capitalize on these shifts in 2026, civic leaders, commercial real estate (CRE) investors, retailers, and developers should:
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
