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Although headlines often highlight a decline in alcohol consumption – particularly among younger generations – the data paints a more nuanced picture, with liquor store traffic remaining well above pre-pandemic baselines. So how has BevAlc consumer behavior changed since 2019? And where is traffic still growing year-over-year? We dove into the data to find out.
As shown in the left-hand chart below, visits to BevAlc chains skyrocketed since 2018, with traffic hovering 40 to 60% above Q1 ’19 – a significantly larger increase than that seen in the wider grocery sector as a whole. But the year-over-year growth has largely flattened, as seen in the right-hand chart, with overall grocery traffic now seeing higher year-over-year growth in H1 2025.
Taken together, these two charts suggest that BevAlc remains a core part of consumers' shopping mix – even if the explosive, pandemic-era acceleration has stabilized into a new normal.
And although BevAlc visits nationwide have flattened, visitation data highlights regional pockets of BevAlc growth. Florida metros such as Port St. Lucie, Sebastian–Vero Beach, and Homosassa Springs posted some of the strongest year-over-year gains, supported by population inflows and steady tourism activity. Similar momentum appeared in select Southern markets, including parts of Texas and the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, many Northeastern and West Coast markets experienced steady pullbacks. Pennsylvania metros like Sunbury, Johnstown, and Erie registered consistent declines, while California hubs including Sacramento, Modesto, and Stockton saw negative traffic trends as well.
This divergence suggests that national averages mask meaningful local variation: while consumers overall are steady in their liquor purchases, certain regions are emerging as growth hubs while others cool.
The opportunity in BevAlc retail now isn't in chasing broad national growth, but in aligning with regional demand dynamics. In Florida and Texas, where visitation is climbing, retailers can lean into assortment expansion, premium products, and in-store promotions to capture incremental spend. In slower markets like California and the Northeast, focusing on loyalty programs, distribution through grocery stores, and smaller format stores that emphasize convenience and value might yield better results.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
It’s that time again. The time where I share my thoughts on everything I think I think about retail...at this very moment.
Over the first nine months of 2025, we have witnessed some pretty darn amazing things across the retail industry. We've witnessed traditional competitive boundaries blur as some large scale grocery players (at least, one that is one and one that wants to be one) venture into same-day delivery logistics, we’ve seen warehouse clubs reimagine convenience, and we have also had more than one retailer experiment with what the right size of its store footprint should be.
What emerges from this chaos is a revalidation of what omnichannel retailing really is. It is about the reimagining of how consumers shop, where they shop, and why they choose to shop one retailer over another.
Therefore, the following observations represent not just trends to watch, but strategic inflection points that could determine which retailers will have the greatest probability to thrive going forward in this beautiful and increasingly complex omnichannel world.
In Q2 2025, Walmart delivered comparable sales growth of +4.5% (excluding fuel), driven largely by profitable e-commerce, and maintained stable store traffic. Monthly same-store visits, according to Placer.ai, were also remarkably steady between +0.7% and -1.8%, from May through August, amid industry-wide macroeconomic pressures.
Meanwhile, the other U.S. retailing behemoth, Amazon, began pushing (or is it forcing?) its way into grocery in August by way of same-day delivery. Walmart, on the flip side, and not to be outdone, also began putting significant resources behind its Walmart Fulfillment Services offering.
All told, it is a game of anything you can do, I can do better. It is one-upmanship at its finest.
The only question is – who stands the better chance of winning? Or at least drawing blood from the other?
From my vantage point, Walmart has a much better chance of holding onto its grocery reign because it already is a grocer, and quite a large one at that – drawing nearly half as many visits as the entire brick-and-mortar grocery category. Walmart’s 4,600+ store advantage is sizable. Amazon may take from others but the moat around Walmart is pretty large.
On the other hand, will Amazon keep a similar hold on its vendor logistics business?
If I were a betting man, Walmart has a better chance of making inroads on Amazon’s logistics revenue than Amazon has on hurting Walmart in grocery.
Said another way, I guess the box may soon be on the other porch, Amazon.
The size of one’s store base is dependent upon so many factors.
Location, the overall experience design, the ROI of “the box,” and more can all impact the size and shape of a retailer’s store base, and, more often than not, all of them actually work in concert together. Which is why anyone pontificating on the trend in the “size” of stores likely hasn’t put much thought into his or her argument.
Despite the recent run-up of retailers trying to get smaller (Macy’s, in particular, comes to mind), there is no tried-and-true rule that smaller stores will work or vice versa.
In some cases, like in dense or urban markets, smaller stores might work, while in others, if the approach is one of creating destination-type stores, like Hy-Vee or Buc-ees, larger stores might work, too.
My favorite example of someone “getting smaller” is Sprouts. As Sprouts CEO Jack Sinclair told me at Groceryshop, Sprouts realized its format had gotten too large, went back to its roots of differentiated products and great looking fresh produce in a smaller box, and has not looked back since.
At the end of the day – smaller, bigger, uncut – none of it matters as much as what your brand is trying to accomplish for your customers and what, in turn, resonates with them the most.
I think we can all agree that, generally speaking, Walmart and the warehouse clubs are noted for having great prices. On the flip side, what they haven’t been known as much for in the past is a quick and convenient shopping experience.
But that is about to change for two reasons.
The first is economics. There is always a trade-off between convenience and price. As budgets continue to get constrained, people will begin to trade off waiting in lines or navigating the dreaded Costco parking lot to save money.
The second is the evolution of these retailers as omnichannel retailers. For example, Walmart’s Chief E-Commerce Officer David Guggina told me recently that one-third of Walmart’s scheduled deliveries are delivered to Walmart customers in under three hours (see video of interview). This behavior itself gives rise to the theory that people are starting to leverage Walmart for quick trips.
Delivery is only one leg of the omnichannel stool, however.
The other two legs are buy online, pickup in-store (BOPIS) and the actual speed of the in-store experience itself. Much has been documented already about the rise of BOPIS following the pandemic, so I won’t belabor the point here because it, too, is likely driving the data below.
The other aspect is that places like Sam’s Club have done a masterful job of making their stores more convenient and time-efficient. Sam’s Club is leading the way on cashierless checkout in the club channel. Sam’s Club Scan & Go shoppers, which account for an amazing one-third of the Sam’s Club customer base, can simply walk through an AI-powered exit arch and then have a digital receipt sent to them upon exit.
Allow me to take a moment to put this last statement into perspective with a concrete example.
Pretend my wife calls me on my way home from work and asks me to pick up some milk. I have a choice: Do I go to the local grocer or do I go to Sam’s? If I decide to go local, I likely will end up paying more ,and I could also possibly have to wait in line to check out at either a manned till or a self-checkout machine. On the other hand, if I go to Sam’s Club, I can just walk in, scan the milk I want, pay at a paystation and then walk through the arch.
Which experience would you choose?
Enough said.
The number one answer any retailer needs to answer in today’s omnichannel world is, “Why come to my store in the first place.”
And that answer begins and ends with good merchandising.
Take a look at some of the more creative merchandising efforts this year as depicted in the graph below:
What they all have in common is a “hook.” Someone got creative and went outside of the box to compel customers into their stores for new and exciting reasons. It is the definition of good merchandising.
Therefore, retailers, convenience store operators, and QSRs can never rest on their laurels. They constantly need to push the envelope to one-up the year before and the competition.
The best merchants get supercharged by the creative demands of this challenge. The worst merchants get their answers from interpolating spreadsheets and making decisions solely off of last year’s data.
Speaking of merchandising, the convergence of technology and the increasing tendency of consumers to use supermarkets as their mid-day lunch or snack source versus QSRs could inspire a unique opportunity for those grocers adventurous enough to seize it.
I have long been a proponent of electronic shelf labels. The use cases in support of them are almost endless at this point. One of my favorite use cases is the ability to run intra-day promotions, an idea that is virtually impossible with paper price tags, and one that also gets supercharged when the component of in-store digital media screens gets added to the equation as well.
Imagine a grocer who uses electronic shelf labels and then starts running unique daily promotions at lunch time. These promotions could be done on ANYTHING:
You get the idea. It is the Venn diagram of retail media and in-store execution at its finest.
The convergence of these above trends signals a tried-and-true retail axiom, i.e. that success is determined not by what you sell per se, but by how you can integrate convenience, value, and your brand (a better word choice than experience) across every touchpoint.
And this axiom will manifest itself in a number of self-affirming, yet sizable ways.
First, as the Walmart/Amazon tête-à-tête illustrates, a single channel advantage will become almost impossible to defend. Retailers need to decide in which channels they want to speak to their customers or risk being outflanked by competitors who will. This creates both vulnerability for established players and opportunities for agile newcomers who can build omnichannel capabilities from the ground up.
Second, technology will play an even bigger role as the industry equalizer. The Sam's Club scan-and-go example is the perfect encapsulation of this idea. It shows how technology can completely flip traditional competitive dynamics. Warehouse clubs, once seen as inconvenient despite their pricing advantages, are at the tipping point of becoming more convenient (and value-laden) than traditional grocers. Retailers who boldly invest in finding new ways to use technology to flip their positioning on the convenience-value-brand spectrum stand to capture disproportionate market share, regardless of their historical positioning.
Third, merchandising is and will forever be the epicenter of retailing. As physical store differentiation becomes harder to achieve, creative merchandising becomes the primary weapon for driving foot traffic and brand loyalty. Retailers who cannot consistently surprise and delight customers with consistent in-stocks, innovative in-store displays, exciting product collaborations, and limited-time offerings will find themselves relegated to utility shopping only, which is about as big as a “Danger Will Robinson” position as there is.
As I look back on 2025, Walmart, hands down, is “winning.” Sure, it has scale. It is the biggest retailer going. But scale isn’t why Walmart is on the hot streak that it is. The real secret to Walmart’s success has been its incredible speed of adaptation, rather than the scale of its operation. Its scale only enhances the impact of successful adaptation.
That is the real punchline to the joke.
What got you here won’t get you there. The task at hand is to transform fast enough to remain relevant in a world where the rules of engagement are being rewritten all the time, by competitors both large and small.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
2025 has been a year of comebacks for legacy retailers. Brands like Barnes & Noble, Gap, and Abercrombie & Fitch are seeing renewed momentum. And amid this wave of revivals, Beyond, Inc. and The Brand House Collective (formerly Kirkland’s Inc.) are betting on one of retail’s most iconic banners: Bed Bath & Beyond (BBB).
After acquiring Kirkland’s intellectual property, Beyond Inc. plans to rebrand 250–275 Kirkland’s stores as Bed Bath & Beyond Home and close the rest. The strategy aims to merge Kirkland’s real estate footprint with the trust and recognition of BBB – once the undisputed leader in home furnishings retail. Can the pull of nostalgia and the equity of a trusted brand rewrite the trajectory of a struggling home furnishings chain?
Kirkland’s, known for accessible home décor and furnishings, has long been a staple of the home furnishings sector. Yet like many of its peers, it has grappled with headwinds from softening discretionary spending. Since 2019, overall visits to the chain have steadily declined as the company downsized its store fleet – and most months of 2025 have continued to register year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic declines. Online performance has also lagged, with digital comparable sales dropping last quarter by double digits.
Still, the data also reveals signs of underlying brick-and-mortar strength. Over the past several quarters, Kirkland’s in-store comparable sales have remained relatively stable, with some quarters seeing slight increases and others modest declines. And as illustrated by the chart below, the chain’s reduced fleet has posted modest same-store visit gains through much of this year, suggesting that the company’s remaining stores may be well-positioned for a turnaround.
Against this backdrop, plans to merge Kirkland’s real estate footprint with the trust and recognition of BBB offer significant promise. The pie chart below offers a reminder of just how influential Bed Bath & Beyond once was: In 2019, BBB accounted for nearly one-fourth of all visits to the home furnishings sector nationwide, far outpacing rivals. While the company’s bankruptcy in 2023 suggested that brand power alone couldn’t offset operational missteps, the name still carries significant weight with consumers. For Kirkland’s, this partnership could provide the spark it needs for renewed growth.
The combination of Kirkland’s streamlined fleet and BBB’s brand equity creates a compelling recipe for revival. With the right execution – balancing nostalgia with modern retail practices – this collaboration could transform a fading chain into a leader once more.
To see up-to-date retail traffic trends, visit our free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Homewares and home decor chains have seen their share of ups and downs over the past few years, from pandemic highs to a discretionary retail slowdown – but some chains, especially high-end ones, are thriving. We took a look at visit data to four retailers – Restoration Hardware (RH), Le Creuset, and Sur La Table – to see what the visit data and demographics reveal about the segment.
Homewares are having a cultural moment – a shift that first gained momentum during the pandemic, when people stuck at home began investing deeply in their living spaces. Since then, social media’s influence has helped lifestyle-forward brands like RH and Le Creuset gain cultural cachet – and visits to these retailers have significantly outpaced the broader home improvement sector, as shown in the chart below.
This resilience – especially amid a broader retail slowdown – underscores how home decor and kitchenware are evolving into status and lifestyle symbols, with culinary aesthetics even finding expression in decor trends.
Although RH, Sur La Table, and Le Creuset all compete in the premium home goods segment, their different brand identities attract distinct audiences and lead to very different in-store behaviors.
RH and Sur La Table attract some of the most affluent, luxury-oriented shoppers in retail and consistently post long dwell times. Both brands use their store fleets not just as showrooms, but as platforms for high-margin services and experiences that extend engagement and drive revenue between product cycles.
Many flagship RH stores include a fine-dining restaurant, and the chain ties complimentary design consultations to a paid annual membership – both of which may resonate with younger “Educated Urbanites” who value elevated dining experiences and expert guidance as they furnish their first homes. Sur La Table, by contrast, generates fee-based revenue from cooking classes and curated international culinary trips, offerings that appeal most to “Booming with Confidence” households – prosperous, established couples eager to invest in premium food and travel experiences. By tailoring experiential services to the distinct aspirations of their core audiences, RH and Sur La Table demonstrate how luxury retailers can extend brand relevance, and sustain growth beyond traditional product sales.
Le Creuset, by contrast, follows a more sales-driven model. With a lower share of high-income households, the brand reaches aspirational, luxury-adjacent shoppers who may have less discretionary income for premium experiences. Store activations such as Factory-to-Table events are designed primarily to drive transactions rather than prolong visits. Le Creuset also over-indexes among “Singles and Starters” – younger, upwardly mobile shoppers who frequently discover the brand on social media. This group tends to conduct heavy online research before visiting, leading to shorter, purpose-driven trips where shoppers arrive ready to buy.
Together, the patterns suggest two distinct playbooks: RH and Sur La Table use experience to lengthen visits and monetize engagement between product cycles, while Le Creuset relies on highly considered, research-led purchases that translate into shorter, purpose-driven store trips.
The success of RH, Sur La Table, and Le Creuset highlights that there is no single formula for winning in luxury retail. Some brands lean on immersive experiences that extend and monetize engagement. Others focus on sales-driven activations that convert researched shoppers. What unites them is a sharp alignment between strategy and the values and behaviors of their core audiences – a positioning that enables them to thrive even amid broader retail headwinds.
For more retail data, visit our free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The recent revival of McDonald’s Extra Value Meal has fueled speculation that the quick-service restaurant (QSR) space might be gearing up for another round of value wars. Yet the data suggests that basic value offerings may no longer be enough to reliably drive traffic. To overcome consumer fatigue and heightened price sensitivity, brands must deliver promotions that truly stand out – whether through unusually deep discounts, memorable giveaways, or culturally resonant collaborations.
McDonald’s recent foot traffic trends illustrate this dynamic. Despite the chain’s Extra Value Meals relaunch, visits to McDonald’s dropped 4.4% year over year (YoY) during the week of September 8th and fell a further 5.2% and 3.7% over the next two weeks. These results pale in comparison to the brand’s April 2025 Minecraft Movie Meal collaboration, which generated consistent traffic boosts throughout its run.
The muted YoY impact of the new value meal doesn’t necessarily signal failure – after all, McDonald’s is lapping last year’s $5 Summer of Value campaign, which extended through 2024. But it highlights the limits of standard deals in a marketplace where consumers expect baseline value from QSR leaders. In an environment crowded with offerings – from Taco Bell’s Luxe Boxes, to Wendy’s Biggie Bags and Burger King’s 2 for $5 promotions – incremental savings feel less like innovation and more like table stakes.
Still, truly eye-catching promotions continue to break through – and McDonald’s 50-cent Double Cheeseburger deal on National Cheeseburger Day (September 18th, 2025) is a case in point. On the day of the promotion, visits jumped 6.4% compared to the chain’s recent Thursday average – showing that consumers remain highly responsive to promotions that feel unique and unmissable.
Pizza Hut’s summer promotions tell a similar story. The chain’s $2-Buck Tuesday deal, which offered a one-topping Personal Pan Pizza for just $2, drove a remarkable 63.2% YoY surge in Tuesday visits during its run (July 8th through August 26th, 2025). And although foot traffic continued to decline on other days of the week, the promotion’s Tuesday lift was enough to push overall weekly visits into positive territory for much of its duration.
Yet when Pizza Hut followed up with a more conventional $5 Crafted Flatzz menu in late August – available all week long until 5:00 PM – the response was far less dramatic. Though traffic held steady YoY during the first weeks of the launch, and the brand’s YoY visit gap has remained somewhat narrower since, consumers clearly differentiated between a “can’t-miss” deal and a “reasonable” discount.
Dairy Queen provides further illustration of both the power and the limits of value promotions in 2025. The chain’s annual Free Cone Day, held at the start of spring, generated an astonishing 326.7% spike in visits on Thursday, March 20th compared to the prior same-day average. The deal even outperformed 2024’s Free Cone Day, boosting weekly traffic 23.8% YoY despite lapping last year’s March 19th event. And an 85-cent Blizzard deal the following week extended the surge, lifting visits 31.2% YoY.
But when Dairy Queen relaunched the same 85-cent Blizzard offer in September (September 8th to 21st, 2025), results were far more muted. Seasonality likely played a role – ice cream naturally peaks in spring and summer, and wanes in colder weather. But repetition also dulls impact, and without the momentum of a free giveaway just days before, the fall promotion may have felt more routine.
The mixed results of McDonald’s, Pizza Hut, and Dairy Queen’s 2025 promotions show that standard value menus are no longer enough to stand out in today’s price-sensitive QSR market. The most effective deals offer consumers something they can’t get anywhere else – whether freebies, unusually deep discounts, or resonant pop-culture tie-ins. For QSRs, the challenge is to capture attention and disrupt routines without eroding margins through unsustainable discounting.
For more QSR insights, explore Placer.ai’s free industry trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Even as overall retail and dining visits show signs of slowing amid economic uncertainty, dollar stores continue to thrive. In July and August 2025, overall foot traffic to Dollar General and Dollar Tree rose 2.7% and 3.9% year over year (YoY), with average visits per location up 1.8% and 5.7%, respectively.
This momentum has not necessarily come at the expense of other discount giants like Walmart and Target. But what does the dollar-store surge mean for the grocery sector? We dove into the data to find out, focusing on category leader Dollar General. Is the retailer siphoning visits away from supermarkets, or is it serving as a complementary stop alongside other formats?
Over the past several years, Dollar General has steadily deepened its grocery presence. Fresh produce rollouts, expanded frozen assortments, and a focus on “everyday essentials” have helped shift its positioning from an occasional convenience stop to a more frequent shopping destination.
Foot traffic trends align with this shift. From Q2 2019 to Q2 2025, Dollar General’s share of grocery visits – across both traditional and value chains – rose consistently, while traditional chains like Kroger and Albertsons lost nearly four percentage points. Value grocers, meanwhile, (i.e. Aldi) remained stable through 2022 before gaining ground themselves, suggesting that Dollar General has primarily pulled shoppers away from traditional supermarkets even as other budget-oriented grocers strengthened.
Cross-visitation data also supports this pattern. Kroger visitors are increasingly supplementing their shopping routines with Dollar General, while Dollar General customers are gradually reducing their reliance on Kroger. This points to Dollar General’s growth coming, at least in part, at the expense of traditional grocers.
So far, this shift has yet to make a major dent in grocery performance. Even as the share of Dollar General shoppers visiting Kroger has declined, Kroger’s overall traffic has remained relatively steady – up 1.3% between Q2 2019 and Q2 2022, and down just 1.2% between Q2 2022 and Q2 2025. This indicates that Kroger has so far managed to offset losses to Dollar General by drawing in new visits, potentially including shoppers trading down from restaurants to prepared foods in the grocery aisle. Looking ahead, grocers may continue to hold their ground by adapting to consumers' changing food routines, even as dollar stores expand their role in food retail.
Meanwhile, Dollar General’s relationship with Aldi has evolved differently. From 2019 to 2022, overlap between the two chains held flat or dipped slightly. But from 2022 to 2025, cross-visitation rose in both directions: More Dollar General shoppers visited Aldi, and vice versa. The pattern suggests the two are increasingly functioning as complementary stops for value-driven households – similar to how Dollar General coexists with Walmart, Target, and Costco. Aldi's positioning as a complement rather than a direct competitor is likely also one of the tailwinds behind the grocer's sustained nationwide growth.
And these patterns extend nationwide. Dollar General’s footprint remains strongest in the South, where it accounted for one in five visits to grocery stores in Q2 2025. But the chain’s fastest grocery visit growth is occurring elsewhere. Between 2019 and 2025, its grocery visit share climbed by over four points in the Midwest and more than three points in the Northeast. And despite Dollar General’s relatively limited presence in the West, it nearly doubled its grocery visit share over the same period.
Location analytics further reveal that Dollar General’s growth has been fueled largely by its dominance in short visits – ”in-and-out” trips lasting less than ten minutes for essentials like milk, bread, eggs, or snacks. Dollar General now accounts for 28.0% of all under-ten minute visits to Dollar General, traditional grocery stores, and value grocery stores. This is a sharp increase from the 24.1% relative short visit share going to Dollar General in Q2 2019.
Dollar General's share of extended visits (over 10 minutes) also grew between Q2 2019 and Q2 2025, but these still account for just 10.2% of combined Dollar General and grocery visits. Together, these trends underscore how Dollar General has solidified its role as a quick-stop destination, carving out a niche that complements rather than fully replaces the traditional grocery trip.
As Dollar General continues expanding its footprint and grocery offerings, its impact on how – and where – Americans shop for food is poised to keep growing. By capturing short-visit traffic and offering a broader grocery selection, the chain is reshaping the competitive landscape and prompting both traditional and value grocers to adapt.
For the most up-to-date dollar store visit data, check out Placer.ai's free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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As consumer sentiment hovers near historic lows and the cost of goods remains elevated, value has become a defining theme across the dining industry. Yet within the sector's diverse restaurant categories – and for individual brands – the question is no longer whether consumers are seeking value, but what value actually means. A closer look at chains across the industry suggests that, amid ongoing economic pressure, perceptions of value are evolving. For some consumers, value may be tied to affordability and promotions; for others, it may come from quality, convenience, or experience. The result is a market with multiple paths to winning consumer traffic.
After an uneven but largely resilient 2025, dining traffic in 2026 tipped into a sustained decline.
Monthly visits to the overall dining industry have trailed year-ago levels throughout 2026, with February standing as the lone exception. That month saw a 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) increase in visits, driven in part by comparisons to the period of initial tariff announcements in early 2025. But broader trends remained challenged, and May's 2.5% YoY decline marked the steepest monthly drop of the past twelve months as rising gas prices and weakening consumer sentiment appear to have added pressure to an industry already navigating a difficult environment.
These headwinds, though, have not landed evenly. Across the dining sector, some segments have faced more intense pressure than others, with much of the divide coming down to how consumers are perceiving value against experience.
Over the past several years, inflation and rising menu prices have gradually weakened a cost-based value proposition that has long been central to the QSR segment. More recently, elevated gas prices have added another deterrent, making a trip through the drive-thru a less compelling choice for some consumers.
Strong performance at grocery stores and superstores suggests that competition for share-of-stomach is increasingly extending beyond traditional restaurant rivals. With expanding selections of ready-to-eat and pre-prepared meals, these channels are offering consumers a combination of value, convenience, and quality that can increasingly match limited-service dining options. At the same time, ongoing pressure on household budgets appears to be driving more consumers toward lower-cost meals made at home, creating additional headwinds for the QSR segment.
Yet for many consumers, there is still a time and place for dining out, and in the face of mounting economic pressure, several dining formats have found foot traffic success. Fine dining has posted traffic growth in nearly every month of 2026, with March standing as the lone exception. That decline was likely influenced by a calendar shift, as March 2026 contained one fewer Saturday than March 2025 – a meaningful headwind for full-service restaurants given the outsized role weekends play in driving visits. The segment's sustained growth points to the resilience of higher-income consumers and the enduring appeal of premium, occasion-driven dining experiences.
Fast casual and casual dining have also proven relatively resilient. The fast casual category saw positive YoY foot traffic in every month of 2026 so far, while casual dining's performance has rebounded since the March calendar shift that likely weighed on YoY traffic. A second calendar shift in May 2026 led to an extra Saturday in the month, which likely helped the segment's overall trend. These trends suggest that both fast casual and casual dining occupy an increasingly attractive middle ground where value is defined as a combination of affordability and experience. At the same time, years of menu price hikes at QSR chains have altered the cost equation in fast casual and casual dining's favor, narrowing the price gap between fast food and more elevated dining formats. As that gap has narrowed, consumers may be placing greater emphasis on experience and quality when deciding where to dine.
The balance between price and elevated experience has made fast casual a favorite for value in the dining industry in 2026. A closer look at two of the segment's largest players, CAVA, a relatively young concept, and Chipotle, a legacy chain navigating operational challenges, shows how brands can deliver on that value proposition in different ways and win in today’s dining landscape.
Chipotle's traffic trends in 2026 have improved compared to 2025, with the brand offering a clear example of how fast casual brands can create value by pairing menu innovation with loyalty perks.
Chipotle outpaced the broader fast casual category in YoY visits nearly every week of 2026 so far. And the graph below shows that the chain's strongest traffic gains tended to coincide with major menu launches and loyalty initiatives – a key component of its ongoing "Recipe for Growth" strategy.
The return of fan-favorite Chicken al Pastor in the week of February 9, 2026 helped drive a 16.6% YoY increase in visits. Two months later, the launch of "Rewards on Repeat" – a refreshed loyalty program offering freebies upon sign-up – generated the period's largest weekly traffic gain, with visits rising 18.2% YoY. And the introduction of Honey Chicken on April 28 provided another boost, as the chain continued to rotate limited-time protein offerings and give customers reasons to return.
These performance peaks suggest that Chipotle has been particularly effective at pairing menu novelty with loyalty perks to reinforce a value proposition anchored by quality and experience.
Year-over-Year Change in Weekly Visits, Chipotle vs. Fast Casual, Jan.–Jun. 2026
Dashed lines mark key Chipotle promotional launch dates. Week-of dates shown; launches may have occurred mid-week.
If Chipotle illustrates the power of menu innovation and loyalty-driven engagement, CAVA highlights a different approach to creating value – one rooted in variety, customization, and a consistently differentiated dining experience.
CAVA's overall visits climbed well above 20% YoY in every month of 2026, a pace largely driven by aggressive unit expansion. Meanwhile, same-store visits, which measure traffic at locations open for at least twelve months, sustained positive YoY growth – evidence of genuine demand at existing restaurants alongside a rapidly growing footprint.
While Chipotle leans on limited-time offers, CAVA's growth rests on a consistent, customizable experience. A deep roster of proteins paired with a wide range of bases, dips, and toppings, gives the chain built-in variety that helps keep the concept feeling fresh. In addition, CAVA's Mediterranean-inspired menu offers flavors and combinations that are less easily replicated at home, helping the brand maintain a differentiated experiential value proposition and drive growth.
O Though Chipotle and CAVA are at different points in their evolution and have taken different paths to growth, both highlight the enduring appeal of fast casual's balance of value and quality. In a dining environment where consumers are increasingly weighing cost against experience, the segment's ability to deliver on both has helped make it one of the industry's strongest-performing formats.
Fast casual isn't the only dining segment benefiting from consumers' evolving perception of value. In 2026, several casual dining chains have found success by pairing accessible price points with the elevated experience of a sit-down meal.
Brands such as BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse, Chili's Grill & Bar, Bonefish Grill, Cicis, and The Cheesecake Factory all posted positive YoY visit growth in multiple months this year, demonstrating that even in a challenging economic environment, diners are motivated when they feel they are getting more in return. These results are particularly notable given the impact of calendar shifts, which weighed on March 2026 comparisons – and provided a tailwind to May performance.
Unlike many fast casual chains, these brands have not relied heavily on a steady stream of limited-time offers to drive traffic. While menu innovation remains part of the playbook, promotions often serve as ticket builders or engagement tools rather than primary traffic catalysts. Instead, these successful casual dining chains have focused on creating everyday value that diners can depend on, narrowing the price gap between limited-service restaurants and full-service dining.
The result is a value equation that encompasses table service, a more relaxed dining environment, and a place to socialize or celebrate an occasion. In an environment where consumers are increasingly weighing cost against overall experience, that combination appears to be helping several casual dining chains maintain positive traffic momentum.
Although dining traffic has softened in 2026, the industry's performance suggests that consumers have not stopped spending on restaurants altogether. Instead, they have become more selective about where they dine and what they expect in return.
Across segments, the strongest performers have found different ways to deliver value. For some brands, that means menu innovation, loyalty engagement, and differentiated experiences. For others, it means dependable affordability paired with the service and atmosphere of a sit-down meal. As economic pressures continue to shape consumer behavior, the data suggests that value is no longer defined by price alone, but by the balance of cost, convenience, quality, and experience.
During the pandemic and its aftermath, Americans were on the move. Millions left expensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt, while boomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with the influx of new residents.
That wave of relocation has since cooled, as return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage rates, and a shrinking affordability gap between coastal cities and many COVID-era hotspots have dampened the incentive to move. But even in a slower market, domestic migration remains one of the most powerful forces shaping local economies, housing markets, and consumer demand.
This report leverages AI-powered location analytics to examine the relocation patterns reshaping the United States in 2026 – where Americans are moving, the demographic and economic forces driving those decisions, and how retailers, investors, developers, and policymakers can respond to the opportunities and challenges created by these shifts.
Which major metros are attracting the most new residents? Which pandemic-era standouts have seen growth stall or reverse? And what factors best predict a large metro area's domestic migration growth potential in 2026?
The latest statewide migration data shows that the slower relocation pace observed in 2024 persisted into 2025. No state recorded net inflows or outflows exceeding 0.7% of its starting population. And while several smaller states continued to attract new residents at meaningful rates, none of the nation's six most populous states saw net in-migration exceed 0.2%.
Among those smaller states, South Carolina and Delaware led the nation with net in-migration equal to 0.7% of their populations, followed by Idaho (0.6%), Maine (0.5%), Tennessee (0.4%), and North Carolina (0.3%). For most of these states, migration accelerated relative to 2024, though Delaware's inflow rate moderated slightly and North Carolina held steady.
Despite their differences, these states tend to offer a similar mix of lifestyle amenities, relatively low congestion, and opportunities for growth. Many also benefit from business-friendly climates, favorable tax policies, or housing costs that remain attractive relative to the higher-cost markets from which they draw new residents.
At the other end of the spectrum was Vermont, which saw the nation’s largest net outflow as share of population in 2025, losing 0.4% of its population to domestic relocation. The decline deepens a reversal that first emerged in 2024, when the state swung to a net loss of 0.2%, after attracting inflows of 0.8% and 0.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Vermont's reversal likely reflects a combination of factors, including return-to-office mandates and the waning appeal of remote work. Housing undersupply in the state may have also contributed, illustrating how important infrastructure investments are to sustaining migration gains over time.
Among the nation's six most populous states, Florida was the only one to see accelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents equal to 0.2% of its starting population, up from 0.1% the year before. Texas, by contrast, slowed from 0.1% net in-migration in 2024 to essentially flat in 2025, highlighting the cooling of what was once one of the country's strongest pandemic-era migration magnets.
Meanwhile, the legacy "exodus" states continue to lose residents, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Illinois and California have seen their migration deficits steadily narrow, with further improvement in 2025. Between 2022 and 2025, Illinois moved from -0.8% → -0.2% → -0.2% → -0.1%, while California moved from -0.9% → -0.4% → -0.3% → -0.2%. And though New York has held steady at -0.2% over the past two years, this marks a significant moderation from 2022, when the state experienced net outmigration equal to 1.1% of its population.
Statewide trends reveal important shifts, but a closer look at the nation's ten largest metropolitan areas suggests that broader interstate averages increasingly mask diverging local realities. Several metros are attracting residents through interstate domestic migration even when their states as a whole are experiencing little or no net migration growth.
Phoenix (+0.3%), for example, stood out as the nation's top-performing large metro in 2025, despite Arizona's absence from the list of leading migration destinations – with the majority of its inflow coming from out of state.
Dallas (+0.2%) ranked second, continuing its rebound from -0.1% in 2023 even as Texas' statewide migration gains cooled. Like Phoenix, Dallas drew a majority of its new residents from outside the state, underscoring its growing appeal as a national migration destination. Houston, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, falling from 0.1% net in-migration in 2023 to -0.1% in 2025. While it is too early to call this a sustained reversal, the divergence between the two metros may reflect Dallas's growing pull as a corporate magnet alongside rising housing costs and weather-related challenges in Houston.
Metro-level data also suggests that the pandemic-era "big-city exodus" narrative is continuing to fade. Los Angeles improved from -0.8% in 2023 to -0.3% in 2025, while New York held steady at -0.3% after improving in 2024. Even Miami (-0.6%), which ranked last among major metros despite Florida's continued statewide gains, saw its outflows moderate from 2023 levels. And while Illinois continued to post net outmigration, Chicago (0.0%) reached migration neutrality in 2025 after recording losses in both 2023 and 2024.
Despite Miami's struggles – and Florida’s relatively modest 0.2% inflow – a look beyond the top 10 large metros reveals that the Sunshine State is home to six of the nation's eight fastest-growing large metros nationwide.
Those top-performing metros, defined as CBSAs with 500K+ residents that added at least 0.8% of their population through net domestic migration over the past year, share a similar profile: lower housing costs, retiree appeal, suburban density, and an easy drive to a larger economic hub.
Much of the growth of these Florida metro areas, however, is being fueled from within Florida itself. While major out-of-state metros such as New York (6.1%) and Chicago (2.0%) remained important sources of new residents, nearly half of the net migration into Florida's top destination metros came from elsewhere in the state. In 2025, Miami (22.5%), Orlando (13.0%), Tampa (5.8%), and Naples (4.2%) together accounted for 45.5% of the net positive migration feeding these fast-growing markets.
The migration flows feeding the nation’s fastest-growing large metros suggest that affordability remains a powerful driver of domestic relocation.
In 2025, seven of the eight top destination metros analyzed above had lower typical home values than their largest feeder markets. Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL, for example, had a typical home value of $313.4K in December 2024, compared with $404.9K in Orlando and $380.2K in Tampa – its two largest sources of net migration. Even North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL – the most expensive Florida metro in this group – drew its largest share of net migration from the New York metro area, where home values are substantially higher.
The lone exception was Charleston–North Charleston, SC, whose largest source of net migration was Baltimore – a market with lower typical home values than the destination. Even in Charleston, however, affordability appears to have played a role. New York, a significantly more expensive market, ranked a close second in 2025, accounting for 6.5% of net positive migration into Charleston, just behind Baltimore’s 6.8%.
While housing costs are only one factor influencing migration decisions, the data suggests that households continue to gravitate toward markets where homeownership is comparatively more attainable than in the places they leave behind.
Typical Home Values* in Top Feeder Markets to Destination Hubs, 2025
*Typical home value based on Zillow Research’s Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for Dec. 2024, immediately preceding the analyzed migration period (Jan.–Dec. 2025).
But as important as affordability is in explaining today’s domestic migration patterns, age appears to be an even stronger determinant of where people choose to relocate.
Among mid-sized and large metros (250K+ residents) experiencing significant population shifts – defined as gaining or losing at least 1.0% of their starting population through domestic migration over the past two years – households are increasingly moving toward older, more established communities.
The data reveals a clear negative relationship between migration performance and age differential – a metric calculated by subtracting the median age of the destination market from the weighted median age of its feeder markets. Negative values indicate movement toward older communities, while positive values indicate movement toward younger ones. In other words, the metros attracting the strongest migration inflows tend to be older than the markets sending them residents.
The data also shows a clear positive relationship between migration performance and retiree concentration. Metros with larger shares of residents aged 65 and older generally saw stronger migration gains over the past two years, while younger metros tended to attract fewer newcomers. This suggests that retiree-driven relocation has become an increasingly important driver of migration. At the same time, the influx of younger residents points to the broader appeal of these communities, which offer a mix of affordability, amenities, and lifestyle advantages.
Net Migration as Share of Starting Population, 2024–2025*
*Analysis includes metro areas with 250K+ residents and domestic migration gains or losses of at least 1.0% during the study period. Weighted Age Differential compares the destination market’s median age with the weighted median age of origin markets, with positive values indicating migration toward younger markets and negative values indicating migration toward older markets. Age data: Census ACS 2020–2024.
The pandemic-era urban exodus is giving way to a more nuanced migration landscape. Large urban markets are stabilizing, while growth is increasingly concentrated in smaller states, secondary metros, and intra-state corridors. Affordability remains a powerful pull, but retirees, lifestyle considerations, and local market dynamics are also playing an increasingly important role in where Americans choose to live.
To capitalize on these shifts in 2026, civic leaders, commercial real estate (CRE) investors, retailers, and developers should:
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
