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Quick-service restaurants have faced significant headwinds, even as value offerings and limited-time promotions have helped stabilize traffic across the segment. Still, the largest restaurant groups are finding ways to outperform.
The latest visit data shows Yum! Brands and Restaurant Brands International (RBI) pulling ahead of the category – with growth in both cases driven by their leading brands and supported by the strength of their fast-casual concepts.
In Q1 2026, traffic to QSRs rose just 0.1% year over year (YoY), as increasingly cautious consumers pulled back on dining out. Against this backdrop, Yum! Brands’ 2.1% increase in overall portfolio traffic and 3.0% rise in average visits per location represent meaningful outperformance. While RBI lagged slightly in overall traffic, it still modestly outpaced the segment average in per-location traffic.
Diving into brand-level data, Taco Bell – which accounted for nearly three quarters of total Yum! visits in Q1 2026 – remained the company’s clear growth engine. A combination of strategic value pricing, ongoing menu innovation, and a strong digital loyalty program continued to drive same-store traffic growth and broaden the brand’s appeal across income cohorts – including higher-income consumers, families, and younger diners alike.
The Habit Burger Grill, Yum!’s fast-casual concept, also performed well in Q1, with same-store visits up in the mid- to high-single digits throughout the quarter. KFC, meanwhile, in the midst of a turnaround, saw mixed same-store visit trends – as did Pizza Hut, currently the subject of a strategic review.
On the RBI side, QSR leader Burger King continued to lead performance. After reporting a 2.6% same-store sales increase in Q4 2025, the chain delivered a 1.4% YoY rise in overall traffic in Q1 2026, with same-store visits increasing in both February and March. This momentum likely reflects ongoing execution of RBI’s “Reclaim the Flame” strategy, alongside ongoing menu innovation – including the January launch of the Ultimate Steakhouse Whopper, which was met with strong consumer response.
Fast-casual Firehouse Subs, which similarly posted a 2.4% increase in same-store sales in Q4 2025, also remained a bright spot in Q1, with positive same-store visit growth in January and February, and March performance roughly in line with the prior year.
By contrast, Tim Hortons continued to see traffic softness in the U.S., though ongoing expansion plans suggest confidence in its long-term opportunity. And Popeyes faced continued pressure, with RBI actively working to reposition the brand.
Both Yum! and RBI are successfully navigating a challenging QSR environment, driven by the strength of their flagship brands, solid performance in fast-casual concepts, and ongoing investments to stabilize underperforming chains. Will the companies be able to sustain this momentum in the coming months?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
After the rollercoaster performance of the retail industry in 2025, the first quarter of 2026 would serve as a barometer for consumer sentiment, resilience and industry stability. In actuality, this past quarter has once again provided obstacles, including winter weather, geo political conflict and retail bankruptcies. However, even for discretionary categories, the outlook still remains positive amidst the uncertainty.
Foot traffic to major brick-and-mortar retail chains were up 1.5% year-over-year Q1 2026. And while some of that growth is due to somewhat easy comparisons, with discretionary industries stagnating over the past few years – especially in the first quarter of last year – the slight increase also suggests that some discretionary categories are beginning to regain traction. And while non-discretionary industries continue to outperform their general merchandise counterparts, there is still plenty to celebrate over the last three months.
The visitation trends this past quarter underscore that consumer resilience remains strong, as consumerism doesn’t take a backseat to economic uncertainty. All of the macro-economic trends point otherwise, with unemployment and layoffs rising, debt accumulating and the housing market cooling, but consumers are still shopping. Retail bifurcation continues, with value based offerings still driving much of the growth, but consumers in the U.S. can’t seem to talk themselves out of being influenced to buy.
Digging into some of the top trends and performances of the quarter, it is easier to see where consumers are putting their attention, and in turn how those categories highlight the shifts in consumer behavior.
One of the largest overall stories of the quarter was the intense winter weather that span across the majority of the country. Winter Storm Fern, which hit the eastern half of the U.S. during the last week of January, had a material impact on foot traffic across categories, in particular non-essential store trips. The week prior (January 19th) brought stock-ups and pre-emptive trips, while the following week brought temporarily shuttered stores and fewer trips in many states. While winter weather has always created disruptions for shoppers, this year felt particularly impactful with more store closures than in previous years.
In times of uncertainty, consumers crave hobbies and experiences that are celebratory and help them to feel good. Participating in or picking-up a new hobby gives consumers some agency and also allows them to connect to others in their communities or through social media. The power of the hobby began to show up on foot traffic in 2025, and the trend has only accelerated faster in the first quarter.
Michaels, Paper Source and Barnes & Noble have all grown traffic in the first quarter of this year, truly underscoring that there is still a place for discretionary spending with today’s consumer. These retailers have all succeeded in building a foundation for shoppers to see these visits as indispensable. This could be due in part to the experiences and services that these retailers offer alongside tangible products, such as stationary & invitations, author signings and readings, and framing service or classes, which help separate a visit from a simple transaction.
The consolidation of retail banners has also benefitted the major names in the hobby, gift and craft category, particularly in the case of Michaels. But, less competition in today’s retail industry doesn’t instantly signal success; these chains have had to define their reason to exist in a digital-first shopping world.
The home improvement category is another area that has reversed its 2025 trend in the first quarter. This category did benefit from favorable comparable periods, but its growth also reflects larger shifts amongst consumers.
Both Lowe’s & Home Depot posted growth in store visits in Q1 2026, a sign that traffic from professionals and do-it-yourself consumers are heading back into building and repair. This traffic increase is all the more impressive given the housing market's current uncertainty as sales slump amidst lower inventory and rising costs – which in some cases may push consumers to pull back on moving or upgrade plans.
It was anticipated that 2025 might bring about a replacement cycle for those who invested in their homes during the pandemic, whether through home improvement or decorating, but this prediction never fully materialized. Now, the positive traffic may indicate that some of that demand may have been delayed, shifting some of the consumption into 2026 as consumers are less bullish on the housing and job markets, and trying to improve what is currently in their possession.
Winter weather was also a factor in the growth for the major retailers, as consumers looked to prepare for storms in advance or outfit their homes with generators, snow removal equipment and other essentials. Looking at the week leading up to winter storm Fern, both major chains benefited from the increased stooking up.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, home improvement retail demand can be subject to volatility in the market. If geopolitical conflict continues and oil prices remain elevated, the cost of home materials could rise and cool the demand for the category once again.
One of the most watched categories as a barometer for discretionary demand has been apparel. It is a category that, in many ways, best exemplifies the current bifurcation of the retail industry based on consumer priorities. Value remains the north star of the category, while full-price chains in apparel, sporting goods and department stores struggle to find their place in the crowd. Even the luxury market has stalled over the last nine months, despite the resilience of higher-income households. Apparel continues to be the bellwether for demand.
Looking at the performance of the category in the first quarter, off-price was once again the winning sector, comping its strong performance last year. Even winter weather didn’t deter shoppers too much, as they looked to off-price chains for key items and winter gear. The frequency of visits to off-price retailers remains a key to their success; repeat visitation is higher for these chains, which helps to boost overall traffic.
Apparel chains and sporting goods retailers fared similarly, with slower traffic overall. Within these subcategories, shifting athleisure preference, value orientation and digital focus all play a role in the tepid performance. There are still some bright spots, with Gap Inc. and Victoria’s Secret improving their business.
A major headline early in the first quarter was the announced bankruptcy and restructuring of Saks Global. As part of the restructuring, the off-price based Saks Off Fifth banner has been shuttered as well as some full line Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue locations.
The luxury market has not been immune to the shift in consumer behavior over the past year, and the first quarter of this year has shown a deceleration of traffic to luxury department stores, even despite the gains made last year from brands like Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom. The stall in traffic to this category reverses much of what happened in 2025, and it will be interesting to see if shoppers return in the coming months.
Beauty, despite some small setbacks in early 2025, continues its dominance as the category to watch for growth. The category began to rebound in the middle of last year, and traffic grew in the first quarter of 2026. Beauty has maintained its momentum through innovation, in-store experience and shifting consumer needs, as the category responds seamlessly to its shoppers.
Major chains like Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works led the charge in terms of performance, while smaller brands like Bluemercury faced slower traffic trends. Beauty has always been a category that thrives in economic uncertainty, and with the expansion of the store footprints over the last few years, beauty retailers have been ready for the increased attention.
As mentioned earlier, consumers still want to shop despite lower consumer sentiment, and the dopamine boost of a beauty retail visit can sustain shoppers who might otherwise be trying to limit their spend. Small indulgences are still top of mind for consumers, which certainly will continue to benefit beauty throughout the remainder of the year.
Finally, at the end of the first quarter, it was announced that digitally native footwear retailer, Allbirds, would sell for only $39 million, despite its prior valuation at $4 billion. Digitally native brands have been expanding store fleets once again, but Allbirds serves as a discretionary cautionary tale.
The footwear category has always been dominated by fashion trends; one day a brand is on fire, the next day it’s almost extinct. Allbirds followed a similar trend, with rapid retail expansion during the pre-pandemic period.
As has been the case, remaining relevant to audiences is still a challenge, even for buzz-worthy digitally native brands. Building lasting relationships with shoppers extends beyond being the product of the moment, and many of these brands are pivoting to focus on planting deeper roots.
Digitally native brands have a right to exist in discretionary retail. In many ways, they are responsible for much of the innovation that has come out of general merchandise categories over the past decade. But, there is still a lot of risk in the business of building new brands, and in the case of Allbirds, diversification that might be needed to keep shoppers coming back.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Traffic to brick and mortar retail chains remained essentially flat in March 2026 following a period of steady year-over-year (YoY) gains – although calendar shifts may account for some of the apparent slowdown.
Saturday is typically the busiest day for in-store shopping, and March 2026 had one fewer Saturday than March 2025, which likely weighed on overall foot traffic, as average daily visits on each weekday in March 2026 were all higher than the monthly average. At the same time, the increase in average visits per weekday on most days was smaller than the YoY monthly growth in January and February – suggesting that consumer caution may have also played a role in the March traffic trends. April data should bring more clarity as to how much of the slowdown was driven by a calendar shift versus emerging consumer caution.
Meanwhile, traffic to e-commerce distribution centers skyrocketed in March – with visits rising 16.2% compared to March 2025 – perhaps helped by a different calendar shift. The shift in Easter – from April 20 in 2025 to April 5 in 2026 – likely pulled some holiday shopping into late March, boosting activity.
On the manufacturing side, foot traffic to plants remained relatively flat in March 2026, rising just 0.7% YoY nationwide.
The March ISM Manufacturing PMI showed growth in new orders and production compared to February, while employment declined – pulling foot traffic trends in opposite directions. The muted visit growth suggests facilities are maintaining operational intensity even as headcounts shrink, pointing to manufacturing activity becoming less labor-dependent, with output continuing to drive facility usage despite subdued hiring.
March’s data suggests that underlying consumer and industrial activity remains resilient, with calendar dynamics distorting headline trends rather than signaling a true slowdown. Looking ahead, as calendar effects normalize, retail and logistics activity may better reflect this underlying strength, while manufacturing continues its shift toward higher output with leaner workforces.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Dining closed out Q1 2026 on uneven ground. While February offered renewed momentum across segments, macroeconomic headwinds continue to influence dining behavior – putting some categories on more favorable growth trajectories than others. We dive into the data below.
Quarterly dining data underscores a clear standout. Fast casual posted a 3.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in Q1 2026 visits – outperforming other dining formats and signaling strong demand for the segment.
The trend likely reflects the current economic climate. Fast casual’s perception of quality, at a price point still below full-service dining, appears to be resonating as consumers weigh discretionary spending.
By contrast, traffic for the QSR segment remained essentially on par with last year in Q1 2026 – a sign that LTOs and value offerings are helping maintain traffic, even as the segment faces pressure from lower-income pullback.
Lastly, full-service restaurants showed the weakest performance, with visits declining 1.4% YoY in Q1 2026 – potentially reflecting softer demand as consumers scale back on higher-cost dining occasions.
A broader view of monthly visit patterns provides additional context to these trends.
The graph below shows that between April and October 2025, QSR traffic was essentially flat or below the previous year’s levels, likely a reflection of consumer sentiment regarding inflation and a degraded value perception in fast food.
But during the same window, full-service restaurants mustered several YoY visit lifts, suggesting that higher-income consumers continued to support sit-down dining – even as more price-sensitive audiences reeled from inflation.
However, the landscape began to shift toward the end of 2025. QSR trends improved, reflecting refreshed value strategies and LTOs designed to re-engage cost-conscious diners.
At the same time, full-service performance weakened. After a sharp dip in December 2025, the segment saw only a partial recovery before declining again in March 2026 – likely influenced by one fewer Saturday compared to March 2025. But overall, this pattern suggests that sustained economic pressure may be prompting even higher-income consumers to moderate discretionary spending in recent months.
Fast casual, meanwhile, has maintained an upward growth trajectory throughout the last twelve months, reinforcing its role as a middle-ground that can succeed in dynamic economic conditions.
Examining visit patterns by day of week reveals another layer of evolving consumer dining behavior amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
Fast casual’s Q1 2026 strength was driven primarily by weekday traffic, which rose 4.7% YoY, alongside a more modest 1.3% increase on weekends. This imbalance suggests that fast casual’s momentum is tied to workweek routines – lunch breaks, quick dinners, and on-the-go meals – where demand for convenience and perceived quality intersect. In the current macroeconomic environment, these habitual visits appear more resilient than discretionary weekend outings.
QSR’s visits followed a more muted version of this pattern. Weekday visits rose 0.6%, while weekend traffic dipped slightly (-0.4%), indicating that mid-week promotions may be sustaining convenience-driven demand, but basic value may be less effective at driving weekend traffic.
Full service visits, meanwhile, declined across both weekparts, with a steeper drop on weekends (-1.9%) than weekdays (-0.6%). Weekends – when busy schedules free-up for socializing and celebrations – are a cornerstone for sit-down dining, and this gap may point to the increased vulnerability of the full-service segment as consumers reassess discretionary spend.
The data points to a dining environment increasingly defined by value – with nuance in how that value is delivered.
QSR’s steady performance underscores the importance of affordability, particularly for budget-conscious consumers, while fast casual’s growth suggests that value is increasingly defined by price, quality, and convenience that justify spend.
On the other hand, full-service restaurants, and their elevated experience, appear more exposed to value-conscious decision-making. If economic pressures persist, more discretionary, sit-down dining occasions may come under greater scrutiny from consumers.
For more dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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After a weather-disrupted start to the year, March delivered a clear signal that the office recovery is once again moving forward. The latest data points to a seasonal rebound alongside tightening workplace policies translating into sustained return-to-office (RTO) gains.
March 2026 marked the busiest March for office visits since the onset of COVID, with traffic just 26.5% below 2019 levels.
Part of this strength was calendar-driven, as the month included 22 working days compared to 21 in both 2019 and 2025. But even after adjusting for this difference, the underlying trend remained firmly positive. Average visits per working day were 29.8% below 2019 levels and 6.4% higher than March 2025, pointing to real and continuing momentum in the market.
On a regional basis, substantive year-over-year (YoY) gains were seen across every major market but Washington, D.C., where adjusting for working days revealed a 3.4% YoY visit gap – possibly influenced by a mid-month severe storm event that may have kept some workers home in a region relatively unaccustomed to such disruptions.
Miami and New York remained at the top of the recovery curve, with office visits exceeding 90% of pre-COVID baselines.
But the more interesting story is unfolding on the West Coast, where some of the nation’s biggest recovery laggards are making steady progress. Los Angeles recorded the strongest YoY growth of any analyzed market, supported in part by the comparison to early 2025, when the city was still reeling from January’s wildfires. San Francisco, where an AI-driven recovery remains in full swing, also continued to build momentum, with visits up 15.4% YoY. The city is steadily climbing the post-pandemic recovery rankings – after avoiding the bottom spot since September 2025, it edged up to third from last for the second month in a row.
As hybrid policies continue to tighten and companies like Stellantis join the growing list of employers requiring five-day-a-week attendance, workplace behavior is shifting slowly but surely toward more in-person work. And While office attendance is unlikely to return to pre-COVID norms, additional mandates set to take effect later this year at organizations ranging from Home Depot to the California state government point to continued gains in office utilization in the months ahead.
For more data-driven RTO analyses, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
While artificial intelligence was the undeniable protagonist of Shoptalk Spring 2026, the discussions illuminated a landscape far more nuanced than simple automation. Retailers are currently navigating a perfect storm of behavioral shifts, ranging from the physiological impact of GLP-1 medications to the cultural resurgence of the mall driven by Gen Alpha. In response, the industry is moving away from rigid demand planning toward a model defined by extreme operational agility, where the lines between digital agents and physical storefronts are increasingly blurred – an evolution reflected in the four key takeaways from this year’s event.
The most significant evolution in the digital space is the transition from traditional e-commerce to Agentic Commerce, or "A-Commerce" (hat tip Shoptalk’s Joe Laszlo). As AI agents begin to autonomously manage discovery, price comparison, and purchasing for consumers, the retail industry must pivot to serve these non-human decision-makers. This shift has the potential to disrupt the long-standing trend of retail concentration. By lowering the cost of customer acquisition and brand formation, AI is effectively leveling the playing field, allowing niche brands to challenge established giants and potentially reversing a decade of market consolidation.
Consumer behavior is currently evolving faster than at any point in recent history. The widespread adoption of GLP-1 medications has created a "lifestyle domino effect" that stretches far beyond the pharmacy. Data shows these medications are not only shifting primary grocery destinations but are also triggering a chain reaction in discretionary spending. A significant weight loss often prompts a total wardrobe refresh, which in turn leads to increased spending on housewares as consumers feel a renewed desire to host social gatherings and showcase their updated personal aesthetic.
Simultaneously, Gen Alpha is coming of age and bringing a surprising nostalgia for the physical "mall hangout" culture. Brands are responding by leaning heavily into "recommerce" and resale markets to build long-term community engagement. In this environment, lifetime value is no longer just about the initial transaction but about fostering a continuous cycle of brand interaction through niche marketplaces and circular economies.
The physical store is not dying; it is being re-engineered to function like a high-end service environment. The industry is moving toward a "hotel check-in" model where computer vision and loyalty integrations allow retailers to identify customers the moment they cross the threshold. This level of tracking is part of a new value exchange: consumers grant access to their data in return for hyper-personalized in-store media and a frictionless shopping experience. This evolution notably aims to eliminate "security friction," such as locked display cabinets, by replacing them with seamless, background-monitoring technologies.
Behind these front-end changes lies a total re-engineering of the supply chain. The traditional discipline of demand planning, which relies on historical data, is being replaced by "demand sensing." This model uses real-time AI to create highly reactive inventory flows that can pivot instantly based on current market signals. Furthermore, the economics of fulfillment have reached a tipping point; micro-fulfillment centers are now financially viable at a threshold of just 500 orders per day. This democratization of automation allows a broader range of retailers to offer localized, rapid delivery that was once the exclusive domain of the industry's largest players.
The retail playbook is being aggressively rewritten in 2026 as the industry moves past the era of mere experimentation and into one of total operational integration. The convergence of autonomous "A-Commerce" agents, the physiological lifestyle shifts triggered by GLP-1 medications, and the unexpected cultural resurgence of the physical mall among Gen Alpha has rendered legacy forecasting models obsolete. Success in this new landscape now depends on a retailer’s ability to bridge the gap between high-tech digital convenience and hyper-personalized, frictionless physical experiences. Ultimately, the winners of this cycle will be those who replace static planning with real-time demand sensing, ensuring they remain as agile as the rapidly evolving consumers they serve.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.
Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Many stadiums host concerts and other shows in addition to regularly held sporting matches and can accommodate tens of thousands of spectators at once – creating massive retail, dining, and advertisement opportunities.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence metrics for some of the biggest stadiums across the country to reveal the commercial potential of these venues beyond simple ticketing revenue. Where do visitors of various stadiums like to shop? Do specific sporting and cultural events impact the nearby restaurant scene differently? How can stadium operators, local businesses, and advertisers tailor their offerings to a stadium’s particular audience and make the most of the stadium and the space throughout the year?
We take a closer look below.
The three major sports leagues – the National Basketball League (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Football League (NFL) – play at different points of the year, and the number of games each league holds during the season also varies.
MLB leads in game frequency, with each team playing 162 games during the regular season, which runs approximately from April through September. Basketball season is also around six months – roughly from mid-October to mid-April – but each NBA team plays only 82 games a season. And the NFL has both the shortest season – 18 weeks running from early September to early January (with the pre-season starting in August) – and the fewest number of matches per team. Understanding the monthly visitation patterns for the various types of stadiums can help advertisers, stadium operators, and other stakeholders ensure that they are leveraging the full potential of the venue throughout the year.
Unsurprisingly, the sports arenas serving the different leagues see visit spikes during their leagues’ respective season. But comparing visit numbers throughout the year to the average monthly visit numbers for each category in 2023 reveals that the relative visit increases and decreases during the on- and off-season vary for each type of stadium.
MLB stadiums display the steadiest visit strength during the on-season – perhaps due to MLB’s packed game schedule. MLB tickets also tend to be relatively affordable compared to tickets to pro football or basketball matches, which may also contribute to MLB’s consistently strong visit numbers throughout the season. During the MLB off-season, baseball fields – which tend to be uncovered – are relatively empty.
The seasonal visit spike to NBA arenas is less steady. The beginning and end of the season see strong peaks, and visits slow down slightly during the mid-season months of January and February. Visits then drop during the off-season spring and summer, but the off-season visit dip is not as low as it is for MLB fields – perhaps because the NBA arenas’ indoor nature make them suitable locations for concerts and other non-basketball events.
Meanwhile, NFL stadiums see the least dramatic drop in visits during the NFL off-season, as these venues’ enormous size also make them the ideal location for concerts and other cultural events that draw large crowds. These arenas’ strong almost year-round visitation numbers mean that sponsors and advertisers looking to expand beyond sports fans to reach a diverse audience may have the most success with these venues.
Although MLB offers the most budget-friendly outing, combining STI: Popstats demographic metrics with trade area data reveals that MLB stadium visitors reside in higher-income areas when compared with visitors to NBA or NFL stadiums.
Baseball fans tend to be older than fans of the other sports, which could partially explain MLB stadium visitors’ higher household income (HHI). The combination of lower ticket prices, higher median HHI among fans, and many games per season offers baseball stadiums significant opportunities to engage effectively with their fan bases.
But while NBA and NFL stadium attendees may not come from as high-income areas as do MLB stadium visitors, fans of live basketball and football still reside in trade areas with a higher HHI compared to the nationwide median. So by leveraging stadium space, advertisers and other stakeholders can reach tens of thousands of relatively high-income consumers easily and effectively.
Sports fans are known to be passionate, engaged, and willing to spend money on their team – but stadium visitors also shop for non-sports related goods and services. Retailers and advertisers can draw on location analytics to uncover the consumer preferences of stadium visitors and tailor campaigns, sponsorships, and collaborations accordingly.
Visitation data to the top five most visited MLB stadiums during 2023 showed differences between the apparel and sporting goods shopping preferences of the various stadiums’ attendees. While 39.4% of visitors to Truist Park also visited DICK’s in 2023, only 30.8% of Yankee Stadium visitors stopped by the sporting goods retailer in the same period. Similarly, while 29.9% of visitors to Yankee Stadium frequented Kohl’s, that percentage jumped to 47.3% for Busch Stadium visitors.
Harnessing location intelligence to see the consumer preferences of a stadium’s visitor base can help retailers, stadium operators, and even team managers choose partnerships and merchandising agreements that will yield the most effective results.
Sports and snacks go hand in hand – what would a baseball game be without a hot dog or peanuts? But while every stadium likely provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. And by leveraging location analytics to gain visibility into stadium-goers dining habits, stadium operators and local food businesses can understand how to best serve each arena’s audience.
Mapping where stadium visitors dine before and after games can help stakeholders in the stadium industry reach more fans.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
All of the stadiums analyzed exhibited unique visitor dining tastes, a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
Zooming in to look at consumer behavior around individual events reveals further variability in dining preferences even among visitors to the same stadium, with different types of events driving distinct dining behaviors.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is home to the Arizona Cardinals. The stadium hosted the 2023 Super Bowl, but the NFL stadium also acts as a concert venue for acts ranging from Taylor Swift to Metallica. And location intelligence reveals that the dining preferences of stadium visitors vary based on the events held at the venue.
During the Super Bowl, sports bars such as Yard House and Buffalo Wild Wings saw the largest increase in visits compared to the chains’ daily average. A month later, attendees at Taylor Swift's concert gave fried-chicken leader Raising Cane’s a significant boost.
Local restaurants can leverage location analytics to see what types of events are popular with their visitor base and craft collaborations and advertising campaigns that resonate effectively with their patrons.
Sports stadiums and arenas are not just spaces for sports and music enthusiasts to gather; they also offer significant commercial opportunities for the surrounding communities. Stadium operators and local businesses can fine-tune their offerings by utilizing location analytics to better connect with their visitor bases and uncover new retail opportunities.
The dining industry showcased its agility over the past couple of years as it rapidly adapted to shifts in consumer preference brought on by COVID and rising prices. And with a new year around the corner, the pace of change shows no signs of slowing down.
This white paper harnesses location analytics, including visitation patterns, demographic data, and psychographic insights, to explore the trends that will shape the dining space in 2024. Which dining segments are likely to pull ahead of the pack? How are chains responding to changes in visitor behavior? And where are brands driving dining foot traffic by taking advantage of a new advertising possibility? Read on to find out how dining leaders can tap into emerging trends to stay ahead of the competition in 2024.
Comparing quarterly visits in 2023 and 2022 highlights the impact of the ongoing economic headwinds on the dining industry. The year started off strong, with year-over-year (YoY) dining visits up overall in Q1 2023 – perhaps aided by the comparison to an Omicron-impacted muted Q1 2022. And while overall dining growth stalled in Q2 2023, several segments – including QSR, Fast Casual, and Coffee – continued posting YoY visit increases, likely bolstered by consumers trading down from pricier full-service concepts.
Foot traffic slowed significantly in Q3 2023 as inflation and tighter consumer budgets constrained discretionary spending. Overall dining visits fell 2.4% YoY, and full-service restaurants – with their relatively high price point compared to other dining segments – seemed to be particularly impacted by the wider economic outlook. But the data also revealed some bright spots: Fast Casual still succeeded in maintaining positive YoY visit numbers and Coffee saw its Q3 visit grow an impressive 5.4% YoY. As the return to office continues, a pre-work coffee run or lunchtime foray to a fast-casual chain may continue propelling the two segments forward.
Restaurant visitation patterns have evolved over the past few years. Although an 8 PM seating was once the most coveted slot at fine-dining restaurants, recent visitation data suggests that sitting down to dinner earlier is rising in popularity.
But among the QSR segment, the opposite trend is emerging, with late-night visits rising. Analyzing hourly foot traffic to several major QSR chains reveals that the share of visits between 9 PM and 12 AM increased significantly between Q3 2019 and Q3 2023. Even Taco Bell – already known for its popularity among the late-night crowd – saw a substantial increase in late-night visits YoY – from 15.4% to 20.3%.
Who is driving the late night visit surge? One reason restaurants have been expanding their opening hours is to capture more Gen-Z diners, who tend to seek out nighttime dining options. But location intelligence reveals that younger millennials are also taking advantage of the later QSR closing times.
An analysis of the captured market for trade areas of top locations within one of Taco Bell’s major markets – the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan area – reveals a year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) increase in “Singles & Starters.” The “Singles & Starters” segment is defined by Experian: Mosaic as young singles and starter families living in cities who are typically between 25 and 30 years old. As consumers continue to prioritize experiential entertainment and going out with friends, late-night dining may continue to see increased interest from young city-dwellers.
Millennials and Gen-Z consumers aren’t only heading to their favorite fast food joint for a late-night bite – these audience segments are also helping drive visits on the weekends. Smoothie King is one chain feeling the benefits of young, health-conscious consumers.
The chain, which opened in New Orleans, LA, in 1973 as a health food store, has since grown to over 1,100 locations nationwide and is currently expanding, focusing on the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA. The area’s Smoothie King venues have seen strong visitation patterns, particularly on the weekends – weekend visits were up 3.4% YoY in Q3 2023. The smoothie brand’s trade areas in the greater Dallas region is also seeing a YoY increase in weekend visits from “Young Professionals” – defined by the Spatial.ai PersonaLive dataset as “well-educated young professionals starting their careers in white-collar or technical jobs.”
While some dining chains are appealing to the late-night or weekend crowd, others are driving visits by appealing to sports lovers. How have recent rule changes around student athletes changed the restaurant game, and how can college football teams drive business in their hometowns?
College sports have long been a major moneymaker, with top-tier teams raking in billions of dollars annually. And as of 2021, college athletes can enjoy a piece of the significant fan following of college sports thanks to the change in the NCAA’s Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rules, which now allows student athletes to sign endorsement deals.
Since then, multiple restaurants have jumped on the opportunity to partner with student athletes, some of whom have millions of followers on Instagram and TikTok. Chains like Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Slim Chickens, and Hooters have all signed college athletes to various brand deals.
How can brands ensure they partner with athletes their customers will want to engage with? Analyzing a chain’s audience by looking at the interests of residents in a given chain’s trade area can reveal which type of athlete will be the most attractive to each brand’s customer base. For example, data from Spatial.ai: Followgraph provides insight into the social media activity of consumers in a given trade area and can highlight desirable partnerships.
Examining the trade areas of Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Slim Chickens, and Hooters, for instance, reveals that Sweetgreen’s visitors tended to have the largest share of Women’s Soccer followers. Conversely, Sweetgreen’s trade area had lower-than-average shares of College Football Fans or College Basketball Fans, while residents of the trade areas of the other three chains showed greater-than-average interest in these sports. Leveraging location intelligence can help companies choose brand deals that their customers resonate with and find the ideal athletes to represent the chain.
Finding the right college athlete partnership is one way for dining brands to appeal to college sports enthusiasts. But dining chains and venues located near major college stadiums also benefit from the popularity of their local team by enjoying a major game day visit boost.
One of the country’s most popular college football teams, the Ohio State Buckeyes, can draw millions of TV viewers, and its stadium has a capacity of 102,780 – one of the largest stadiums in the country. And while tailgating is a popular activity for Buckeyes fans, nearby restaurants are some of the biggest beneficiaries of the college football craze. Panera experienced a 235.3% increase on game days as compared to a typical day, Domino’s Pizza visits grew by 283.3%, and Tommy’s Pizza, a local pie shop, saw its visits jump by a whopping 600.9%.
This influx in diners also causes a major shift in game day visitor demographics, as revealed by changes in visitors at dining venues located near stadiums of two of the nation’s best college football teams – the Ohio State Buckeyes and Ole Miss Rebels. Based on Spatial.ai: Personalive data for the captured market of these dining venues, game day visitors tended to come from “Ultra Wealthy Families” when compared to visitors during a typical non-game day in September or October.
The analysis indicates that popular sporting events create a unique opportunity for restaurants near college stadiums to attract high-income customers game day after game day, year after year.
While some spend game day tailgating or visiting a college restaurant, others hold a viewing party – with a six-foot submarine. And the sub’s popularity extends beyond Superbowl Sundays. Sandwich chains including Jersey Mike’s, Firehouse Subs, Jimmy John’s, and Subway (recently purchased by the same company that owns Jimmy John’s) have seen sustained YoY increases in visits and visits per venue in the first three quarters of 2023.
Some of the growth to these chains may be related to their affordability, a draw at all times but especially during a period marked by consumer uncertainty and rising food costs. And subway leaders seem to be seizing the moment and striking while the iron is hot – Jersey Mike’s opened 350 stores in 2023 and still saw its YoY visits per venue grow by 6.6%. And Subway reported ten consecutive quarters of positive sales, a promising sign for its new owner.
The love for a healthy, affordable sandwich extends across all income levels, with all four chains seeing a range in their visitors' median household income (HHI). Out of the four chains analyzed, Jersey Mike’s – which has long prioritized a suburban, middle-income customer – had the highest trade area median household income of the four chains at $77.3K/year. Subway, known for its affordability, had the lowest, with $62.9K/year. The variance in median HHI combined with the strong foot traffic growth shows that when it comes to sandwiches, there’s something for everyone.
Persistent inflation and declining consumer sentiment may pose serious challenges for the dining space, but emerging trends are helping boost some restaurants. Customers seeking out a late-night bite drive visits to QSR chains, and health-conscious diners are boosting foot traffic to smoothie bars and sandwich shops. Meanwhile, sports sponsorships and game-day restaurant visits can provide a boost to dining businesses that take advantage of these opportunities.
