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With Q3 2024 underway, we checked in with beauty chains Ulta Beauty and Sally Beauty Supply, owned by Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. How did they fare in the first half of the year? And what are some of the factors driving their success?
We dove into the data to find out.
Ulta Beauty thrived in 2022 and 2023, propelled by the lipstick effect – which sees consumers splurging on low-cost indulgences when times are tight – and by the post-pandemic consumer obsession with wellness. And though the beauty giant’s visit growth has moderated somewhat in recent months, it continues to see year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth.
Between January and July 2024, Ulta consistently outperformed the wider beauty segment, with monthly YoY visit increases ranging between 2.8% and 11.2%. On a quarterly basis, visits to the chain jumped 6.6% YoY in Q2 2024. Though some of Ulta’s visit growth can be attributed to the chain’s growing store count, the average number of visits to each Ulta location also increased 4.6% YoY in Q2 2024.
Sally Beauty Supply – the hair care-oriented beauty chain with more than 3,100 stores nationwide – is another beauty brand to watch this year. In 2022, Sally Beauty announced a store optimization plan that included the shuttering of more than 300 stores. And foot traffic data shows that the chain’s rightsizing efforts are paying off.
Comparing quarterly visits to Sally Beauty to a Q2 2022 baseline shows that after declining throughout 2023, overall visits to the chain have begun to pick up once again – with Q2 2024 foot traffic up 3.6%.
One factor that appears to be driving success for both Ulta and Sally Beauty is their unusually broad appeal. Analyzing the two chains’ captured markets with data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive and STI: PopStats shows that though there are differences between Ulta and Sally Beauty’s captured markets, both brands draw large shares of customers from across demographic groups.
Overall, the median household income of Ulta’s captured market is higher than that of Sally Beauty – $78.6K, compared to $67.1K. Ulta’s distinct mix of prestige and budget products is especially likely to draw Wealthy Suburban Families, while Sally Beauty’s offerings hold special appeal for Small Towns.
But both brands’ captured markets include higher-than-average shares of the Blue Collar Suburbs and Near-Urban Diverse Families segment groups – showing that despite their differences, Ulta and Sally Beauty both boast diverse customer bases.
Still, visitors interact with the two beauty chains differently. During the 12-month period ending in July 2024, some 32.1% of visits to Sally Beauty lasted less than 10 minutes – compared to just 15.3% of visits to Ulta.
Sally Beauty’s far greater share of visits under ten minutes may be partly a result of its hair-focused product mix. In Q2 2024, some 64.8% of Sally Beauty’s net sales were in the hair color and care segments, while just 8.1% were in skincare and cosmetics. Ulta’s offerings, by contrast, are very much centered on cosmetics. And while shoppers buying hair care products may be more likely to take advantage of options like BOPIS (buy online, pick up in-store), those on the hunt for makeup may be more intent on trying out products and browsing in-store. Beauty professionals, who make up a larger share of Sally Beauty’s customer base than that of Ulta’s, may also be more inclined to use this service.
On the flip side, Ulta drew a much higher share of extended visits (30+ minutes) during the analyzed period – 31.8%, compared to 20.7% for Sally Beauty. In addition to browsing the aisles and trying new products, many Ulta customers likely remain longer in-store to avail themselves of the chain’s varied in-store salon services.
Ulta and Sally Beauty have different offerings – and serve different customer bases. But the success and broad appeal of both brands shows that in the beauty space of 2024, there’s plenty of room at the top.
For more data-driven insights, visit Placer.ai.
Discount & dollar stores had a strong Q2 2024, as consumers continued to prioritize value amid persistent high prices. We dove into the data for category leaders Dollar General and Dollar Tree to take a closer look at the drivers of these chains’ most recent success.
Dollar General – the nation’s largest dollar store player – opened nearly 200 stores last quarter, surpassing 20,000 U.S. locations. And Dollar Tree, the second-biggest dollar store chain by real estate footprint, stands at over 8,300 locations, including more than 100 new additions in the first months of 2024.
These chains’ significant fleet expansions continue to fuel foot traffic growth. Both Dollar General and Dollar Tree saw consistently positive YoY visit growth during the first seven months of 2024. Only in April 2024 did Dollar Tree’s YoY foot traffic appear to falter, likely as a result of decreased YoY demand for its traditional holiday merch due to an Easter calendar shift.
On a quarterly basis, YoY visits to Dollar General and Dollar Tree in Q2 2024 rose 13.1% and 8.4%, respectively. Over the same period, the two chains also experienced YoY increases in the average number of visits to each of their locations (10.3% for Dollar General and 3.7% for Dollar Tree), indicating that visits to individual stores remained robust as the brands grew.
And both brands plan on continuing to expand in the near future. Dollar General expects to open a total of 730 new stores in 2024, while Dollar Tree announced the takeover of 170 99 Cents Only Stores to complement the banner’s other openings. These strategic initiatives should continue to drive foot traffic gains for both brands in the coming months.
What’s behind Dollar General and Dollar Tree’s visit success? A look at changes in visitor interaction with the two chains suggests that for both dollar leaders, rising customer loyalty has played an important role.
Since July 2022, the share of visitors frequenting the two brands on a regular basis has been on an upward trajectory. In July 2024, 35.5% of Dollar General visitors frequented the chain at least three times during the month – up from 34.1% in July 2022. This increase in visitor frequency may be due in part to Dollar General’s inroads into the grocery space – giving consumers even more of a reason to visit the chain for daily essentials on a regular basis.
And though Dollar Tree’s somewhat more modest fleet drives a slightly smaller share of repeat visitors, it too has seen an increase in frequent visitors while investing in diversified offerings at various price-points – including consumables. In July 2024, 16.6% of Dollar Tree’s visitors also visited the chain at least three times, up from 13.9% in July 2022.
For both chains, visitor frequency is driven in part by seasonality, with loyalty upticks in December and May, likely driven by holiday season and Mother’s Day shoppers. Still, Dollar Tree, which remains a more traditional dollar store than Dollar General, experiences more dramatic seasonal visit peaks than its prime competitor – and its loyalty also follows a more pronounced seasonal pattern.
With the biggest players in the discount & dollar category seemingly going strong, will the second half of 2024 bring even more success to this retail space?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Midway through 2024, foot traffic to Lowe’s and Home Depot – the leaders in the home improvement space – is climbing. What’s driving these retailers’ recent visit growth? We dove into the data to find out.
After a meteoric rise in foot traffic during the pandemic, the home improvement segment has experienced a turbulent few years – one of the primary reasons being a cool housing market that has curbed demand for projects. But after a significant period of consistent YoY visit gaps, visits to Lowe’s and Home Depot in 2024 appear to be matching and even slightly surpassing 2023 levels.
Between Q3 2023 and Q2 2024, Lowe’s and Home Depot both saw their YoY visit gaps gradually narrow and then close – finishing out Q2 with modest YoY gains. This turnaround may have been partly due to modest lifts in new home sales at the start of 2024 compared to 2023 – spurring an uptick in home improvement projects in the following months.
And though YoY visits to both retailers experienced a decline in July 2024 – perhaps due to May and June’s YoY declines in new and existing home sales – recent indications that the housing market may be heating up may bode well for the home improvement category in the second half of 2024 and beyond.
In addition to an increase in YoY visits, the resurgence of cross-shopping behavior between Home Depot and Lowe’s further suggests that a turnaround may be unfolding in the home improvement space. Location analytics shows that during recent home improvement booms, cross shopping between the two retailers was common, perhaps as judicious consumers taking on large projects looked to explore their options.
In Q2 of 2020 and 2021 – periods of strong foot traffic for both retailers – a large share of Lowe’s visitors also visited Home Depot. And although Lowe’s maintains a smaller retail footprint than Home Depot, many of Home Depot’s visitors visited a Lowe’s store as well.
But in the years that followed, economic headwinds led many consumers to defer their projects, and cross-shopping behavior began to moderate. In Q2 2023, only 48.8% of visitors to Lowe’s also visited Home Depot, and just 44.8% of Home Depot’s visitors visited Lowe’s.
However, in Q2 2024, consumers’ home improvement cross-shopping showed signs of a potential change of course. During the period, cross shopping between the brands climbed to 51.5% for Lowe’s and 45.7% for Home Depot. A return to in-store comparison shopping could mean that consumers are again taking on higher-stakes home improvement projects, which justify a visit to both retailers.
After an extended period of YoY visit gaps, foot traffic to the home improvement leaders is on the rise. Will Lowe’s and Home Depot continue to build on these positive visitation trends?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
With H2 2024 underway, we took a look at the foot traffic performance of superstores Walmart and Target, and membership warehouse clubs BJ’s Wholesale Club, Sam’s Club, and Costco. How did foot traffic compare to 2023’s visitation patterns? And what special events helped propel visits?
Superstores have been thriving – with YoY visits to retail giants Walmart and Target elevated consistently since May 2024. And though Target had a slower start to the year, YoY foot traffic to the chain picked up in Q2, and the retailer has been flourishing since. (Target and Walmart's April 2024 YoY foot traffic drops are likely attributable in part to calendar shifts: April 2023 had one more weekend than April 2024 – and one of them was Easter.)
Membership warehouse clubs have been faring even better, with Costco leading the pack in Q2. BJ’s and Sam’s Club also experienced strong visit growth, with July visits elevated by 5.6% YoY for both brands.
A closer look at the baseline change in quarterly visits since Q2 2019 further highlights the strong positioning of superstores and wholesale clubs in 2024. All five retailers drew more visits in Q2 2024 than they did pre-pandemic (Q2 2019).
But these visit increases have not been equally distributed across the retailers: While all of them experienced growth relative to a Q2 2019 baseline, membership warehouse visits have been outpacing those of superstores on a consistent basis since Q1 2023. As prime destinations for inexpensive, bulk buying, the segment has likely been buoyed by families and younger consumers seeking ways to save money on groceries and other basics amid high prices.
But superstores have also been having a moment. And one factor which may have contributed to Target’s Q2 2024 turnaround is its doubling down on loyalty: In April 2024, the chain revamped its Target Circle Rewards, adding, among other things, a new paid tier called Target Circle 360.
A key benefit of Target’s loyalty program, which is free to join for the regular tiers, is access to deep discounts during Target Circle Week. This year, the big sales event took place between July 7th and 13th – and examining foot traffic trends to the chain reveals that the promotion fueled a major visit boost: During the week of July 8th, weekly visits to Target were the highest they’ve been since the start of the year, and 6.8% higher than 2024’s weekly visit average. This year’s Circle Week visits also outperformed last year’s by 8.7%.
This demonstrates how the revamped loyalty program and exclusive sales events are successfully driving more customers to Target stores. And other retailers are taking note, with Walmart debuting its own major summer sales events and Costco and Sam’s Club battling it out for the most affordable prices – a major win for shoppers nationwide.
Superstores enjoyed elevated visitation patterns in Q2 2024. Will the superstore and wholesale club price wars continue? And with back-to-school shopping well underway, and the holiday shopping season quickly approaching, how will these retailers continue to perform?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news.
Summer is underway, and malls are still bustling. In July 2024, visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers were up 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively, compared to the equivalent period of 2023. Though these year-over-year (YoY) increases were more moderate than the significant jumps observed in May and June, they underscore the segment’s continued solid positioning. Outlet malls, for their parts, saw a slight 0.4% decline in mall visits compared to July 2023.
At first glance, July’s softer numbers – particularly for outlet malls – may appear to herald the start of a retail and mall visit summer slow-down. But zooming into weekly visit data offers further context that can shed light on what may lie ahead in the coming months.
Analyzing week-over-week (WoW) visit trends shows that during the last two weeks of June and the first two weeks of July, all three mall indexes saw visits either decline or hold steady from week to week. The one notable exception was outlet malls – which experienced an impressive and sudden 13.7% WoW surge in visits to outlet malls during the first week of July, driven by the segment's exceptional Independence Day draw. Outlet malls’ subsequent WoW visit drop also reflects this exceptional Fourth of July peak.
The final two weeks of July showed a change in visit trajectory, with all three mall segments experiencing growing WoW visit gains as traffic picked up towards the end of the month. This upward trend can likely be attributed to the back-to-school season getting into full swing, with sales typically running from mid to late July through August and into mid-September.
Here too, the late July WoW visit gains were strongest for outlet malls – perhaps showcasing consumers' prioritization of budget shopping ahead of the new school year.
The Placer.ai Mall Index has frequently highlighted the power of special calendar milestones to drive significant shopping center visit spikes. And Independence Day is no exception.
On July 4th, shoppers nationwide flock to stores for holiday deals, often after enjoying hotdogs, hamburgers, and other festive treats. But though all three mall types have shops that are open on the holiday, it is outlet malls that really draw the crowds. On July 4th, 2024, visits to outlet malls shot up 50.7% compared to an average YTD Thursday. Foot traffic to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers, on the other hand, remained below levels usually seen on Thursdays.
Between Fourth of July sales and a long, summer holiday weekend, many consumers chose to spend their time off this year driving out to outlet malls and browsing their offerings to find the best deals.
Between the Fourth of July and back-to-school shopping, July was yet another busy month across shopping malls nationwide. But how will malls continue to fare in August as school goes back into session and summer vacationers go back to work?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
Employers from local governments to major corporations are tightening their return-to-office (RTO) policies – cracking down on practices like coffee-badging and requiring employees to relocate closer to the workplace. Last month, the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index showed that offices throughout much of the U.S. were the busiest they’d been since the pandemic. But what happened in July 2024?
We dove into the data to find out.
In July 2024, visits to office buildings nationwide were down just 27.8% compared to July 2019 – outpacing even June 2024’s impressive showing. Stated differently, July 2024 office building foot traffic reached 72.2% of July 2019 levels – and the highest it’s been since the pandemic. So even if some RTO mandates are intended to encourage “voluntary turnover” – i.e. make some workers quit – stricter face time policies are also having an appreciable impact on the ground.
Drilling down into the data for major cities nationwide shows that, once again, Miami and New York led the regional recovery pack in July – with visits to offices in both cities reaching about 90% of July 2019 levels. For both cities, as well as Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, July 2024 was the single busiest in-office month since 2020. And though Dallas and Washington, D.C. experienced busier months earlier in the year, both hubs outperformed the nationwide baseline in July – with local offices recouping 76.9% and 73.9%, respectively, of July 2019 office foot traffic.
Houston office visits, for their part, continued to be weighed down by stormy weather – with flooding and power outages in the wake of hurricane Beryl keeping many local residents hunkered down at home.
Despite these differences, all 11 analyzed cities experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in July 2024 – further evidence that the office recovery remains very much underway. Miami led with 22.8% YoY visit growth, followed by West Coast hubs San Francisco and Los Angeles. And though hurricane-hit Houston unsurprisingly lagged behind other cities, it too saw YoY growth.
“Hushed hybrid” trends notwithstanding, offices were busier in July 2024 than during any other month since the pandemic. How much longer will the RTO continue to accelerate?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven office recovery analyses to find out.
This report leverages location intelligence data to analyze the auto dealership market in the United States. By looking at visit trends to branded showrooms, used car lots, and mixed inventory dealerships – and analyzing the types of visitors that visit each category – this white paper sheds light on the state of car dealership space in 2023.
Prior to the pandemic and throughout most of 2020, visits to both car brand and used-only dealerships followed relatively similar trends. But the two categories began to diverge in early 2021.
Visits to car brand dealerships briefly returned to pre-pandemic levels in mid-2021, but traffic fell consistently in the second half of the year as supply-chain issues drove consistent price increases. So despite the brief mid-year bump, 2021 ended with overall new car sales – as well as overall foot traffic to car brand dealerships – below 2019 levels. Visits continued falling in 2022 as low inventory and high prices hampered growth.
Meanwhile, although the price for used cars rose even more (the average price for a new and used car was up 12.1% and 27.1% YoY, respectively, in September 2021), used cars still remained, on average, more affordable than new ones. So with rising demand for alternatives to public transportation – and with new cars now beyond the reach of many consumers – the used car market took off and visits to used car dealerships skyrocketed for much of 2021 and into 2022. But in the second half of last year, as gas prices remained elevated – tacking an additional cost onto operating a vehicle – visits to used car dealerships began falling dramatically.
Now, the price of both used and new cars has finally begun falling slightly. Foot traffic data indicates that the price drops appear to be impacting the two markets differently. So far this year, sales and visits to dealerships of pre-owned vehicles have slowed, while new car sales grew – perhaps due to the more significant pent-up demand in the new car market. The ongoing inflation, which has had a stronger impact on lower-income households, may also be somewhat inhibiting used-car dealership visit growth. At the same time, foot traffic to used car dealerships did remain close to or slightly above 2019 levels for most of 2023, while visits to branded dealerships were significantly lower year-over-four-years.
The situation remains dynamic – with some reports of prices creeping back up – so the auto dealership landscape may well continue to shift going into 2024.
With car prices soaring, the demand for pre-owned vehicles has grown substantially. Analyzing the trade area composition of leading dealerships that sell used cars reveals the wide spectrum of consumers in this market.
Dealerships carrying a mixed inventory of both new and used vehicles seem to attract relatively high-income consumers. Using the STI: Popstats 2022 data set to analyze the trade areas of Penske Automotive, AutoNation, and Lithia Auto Stores – which all sell used and new cars – reveals that the HHI in the three dealerships’ trade areas is higher than the nationwide median. Differences did emerge within the trade areas of the mixed inventory car dealerships, but the range was relatively narrow – between $77.5K to $84.5K trade area median HHI.
Meanwhile, the dealerships selling exclusively used cars – DriveTime, Carvana, and CarMax – exhibited a much wider range of trade area median HHIs. CarMax, the largest used-only car dealership in the United States, had a yearly median HHI of $75.9K in its trade area – just slightly below the median HHI for mixed inventory dealerships Lithia Auto Stores and AutoNation and above the nationwide median of $69.5K. Carvana, a used car dealership that operates according to a Buy Online, Pick Up in Store (BOPIS) model, served an audience with a median HHI of $69.1K – more or less in-line with the nationwide median. And DriveTime’s trade areas have a median HHI of $57.6K – significantly below the nationwide median.
The variance in HHI among the audiences of the different used-only car dealerships may reflect the wide variety of offerings within the used-car market – from virtually new luxury vehicles to basic sedans with 150k+ miles on the odometer.
Visits to car brands nationwide between January and September 2023 dipped 0.9% YoY, although several outliers reveal the potential for success in the space even during times of economic headwinds.
Visits to Tesla’s dealerships have skyrocketed recently, perhaps thanks to the company’s frequent price cuts over the past year – between September 2022 and 2023, the average price for a new Tesla fell by 24.7%. And with the company’s network of Superchargers gearing up to serve non-Tesla Electric Vehicles (EVs), Tesla is finding room for growth beyond its already successful core EV manufacturing business and positioning itself for a strong 2024.
Japan-based Mazda used the pandemic as an opportunity to strengthen its standing among U.S. consumers, and the company is now reaping the fruits of its labor as visits rise YoY. Porsche, the winner of U.S New & World Report Best Luxury Car Brand for 2023, also outperformed the wider car dealership sector. Kia – owned in part by Hyundai – and Hyundai both saw their foot traffic increase YoY as well, thanks in part to the popularity of their SUV models.
Analyzing dealerships on a national level can help car manufacturers make macro-level decisions on marketing, product design, and brick-and-mortar fleet configurations. But diving deeper into the unique characteristics of each dealership’s trade area on a state level reveals differences that can serve brands looking to optimize their offerings for their local audience.
For example, analyzing the share of households with children in the trade areas of four car brand dealership chains in four different states reveals significant variation across the regional markets.
Nationwide, Tesla served a larger share of households with children than Kia, Ford, or Land Rover. But focusing on California shows that in the Golden State, Kia’s trade area population included the largest share of this segment than the other three brands, while Land Rover led this segment in Illinois. Meanwhile, Ford served the smallest share of households with children on a nationwide basis – but although the trend held in Illinois and Pennsylvania, California Ford dealerships served more households with children than either Tesla or Land Rover.
Leveraging location intelligence to analyze car dealerships adds a layer of consumer insights to industry provided sales numbers. Visit patterns and audience demographics reveal how foot traffic to used-car lots, mixed inventory dealerships, and manufacturers’ showrooms change over time and who visits these businesses on a national or regional level. These insights allow auto industry stakeholders to assess current demand, predict future trends, and keep a finger on the pulse of car-purchasing habits in the United States.
