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Like so many tourism hot spots, the pandemic brought visitation to Las Vegas to a near halt. Since then, the city has invested heavily in several new entertainment and sports venues – redefining Las Vegas for the post-pandemic era.
Yet standing in the way of Las Vegas’ next tourism boom is a growing challenge: affordability. For many travelers, a Vegas getaway has become increasingly out of reach, starting with the rising cost of staying on the iconic Strip. But the Strip itself may also hold the solution. AI-powered location intelligence suggests that activations designed to bring visitors directly to the corridor can boost foot traffic and attract mainstream audiences, reinforcing the Strip’s role as a central tourism engine.
After a brief foot traffic recovery in 2021 and 2022, visits to the Strip have remained below pre-pandemic levels. But since last year, the traffic decline appears to have tapered off– signaling a fresh baseline upon which visitation can build in the months and years ahead.
While the Strip's overall foot traffic has stabilized, major pop culture moments continue to drive meaningful spikes in visitation. Across a range of major events in 2026, out-of-market traffic jumped significantly above the same-day-of-week average.
The recent BTS ARIRANG World Tour was a tourism powerhouse, as the city rolled out weeks-long activations that drove traffic beyond the performance venue and onto the Strip itself. Similarly, the EDC World Party Parade, Bruno Mars Day, and the NASCAR Cup Series Hauler Parade all served as prime examples of broader venue-based events with an on-Strip element that ignited foot traffic – a formula that could be key to Las Vegas’s next chapter of tourism growth.
Diving into the demographics of Strip visitors highlights why boosting these event-based audiences could be critical.
Since the pre-pandemic period, the Strip's everyday visitor base has become notably more affluent – likely in part due to rising costs at hotels and resorts. In January through May of 2019, the median household income (HHI) of Strip visitors was $93.2K, compared to $101.1K during the same window in 2026.
However, on nearly all of the event days analyzed – with the exception of Bruno Mars Day – the Strip’s median HHI declined, in several cases pulling back toward 2019 levels. The EDC World Party Parade drew a median HHI of $94.7K, and on BTS concert days, the median HHI on the Strip ranged from $95.9K to $97.4K.
This shows that events driving traffic to the Strip are attracting audiences that more closely reflect the broad, mass-market appeal on which Las Vegas built its identity. By attracting a broader cross-section of visitors, widely accessible on-Strip events could help rekindle both the scale and diversity of visitation that characterized the city before the pandemic.
Las Vegas has invested heavily in new sports and entertainment venues. But as the city enters its next era of tourism, maximizing the role of the Strip could be key to driving visitation, engagement, and economic activity.
For more data-driven civic storylines, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
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Retail corridors – with their orientation towards apparel flagships, aspirational brands, and dining – have not been immune to the macroeconomic pressures weighing on discretionary retail. Declining consumer sentiment and tariff uncertainty appear to have impacted visits, which decreased year-over-year (YoY) most months since September 2025. And after a relatively resilient January and February, three of the steepest YoY visit gaps of the past year came in March, April, and May 2026, as rising fuel prices added another layer of financial pressure to household budgets.
Zooming in on monthly visit duration provides further evidence that economic headwinds – and pressure at the pump in particular – are having a meaningful impact on retail corridor traffic as the year progresses.
In January and February 2026, visits of less than 30 minutes decined compared to 2025 while visits of 30 minutes or more increased. This could reflect ongoing cost-of-living concerns – with consumers shopping more deliberately, checking prices, and taking longer to decide. In addition, consumers continue to prioritize elevated retail experiences and third-places, which can be cost-effective forms of recreation while encouraging longer dwell times. These factors likely helped fuel growth in extended visits while supporting overall traffic resilience for the first two months of the year.
But since March 2026, economic uncertainty has been compounded by rising fuel prices – perhaps making driving downtown less appealing to some. As a likely consequence, visits under 30 minutes dipped further, and visits of over 30 minutes flattened or declined outright, indicating that retail corridors are seeing an overall contraction of the discretionary-oriented activity they typically depend on.
To be sure, extended visits are still the norm. The average visit to retail corridors remained above two hours throughout the first five months of 2026, as they remain ideal destinations for discovery and leisure time. That strength, alongside incremental improvements in the longest visit buckets could signal an overall visit resurgence in the months ahead.
Retail corridor visitation trends show that consumer behavior can shift quickly in response to macroeconomic conditions. While early 2026 showed signs of more intentional, third-place style visits, the current fuel price spike appears to be putting a damper on mid-to-extended length trips. For retailers and civic stakeholders, resilience may depend on enhancing the consumer experience, in-store and along the corridor, giving consumers a reason to visit – and stay a while.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
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The broader restaurant industry continues to navigate a challenging economic environment, and rising gas prices have made value perception an even more important factor for consumers in determining where – and how – they choose to eat. With fuel costs remaining elevated throughout May 2026, we turned to the latest Placer.ai Dining Index data to assess how different dining segments performed and whether these emerging trends continued to gain momentum.
Dining traffic in May 2026 painted a mixed picture for the restaurant industry. Visits to full-service chains rose year-over-year (YoY) after two consecutive months of declines, likely benefiting from both Mother's Day and a favorable calendar shift. May 2026 included five Sundays compared to four in May 2025 – a subtle but meaningful tailwind for sit-down dining. The rebound suggests that even amid a challenging economic backdrop, consumers remain willing to spend on special occasions.
At the same time, pressure continued to build in the more value-oriented dining segments. QSR visit declines widened YoY, while fast-casual traffic growth slowed. Together, these trends provide additional evidence that persistent inflation and tighter household budgets are weighing on consumer behavior – particularly among the typically value-conscious audiences of QSR and fast casual chains.
Some of the weakness in QSR traffic – and even the slowdown in fast casual growth – may be tied to shifting consumer preferences around drive-thru usage and other convenience-based ordering channels
Location intelligence reveals that sub-10-minute visits to the two limited-service segments have underperformed compared to overall visits for several months. And in May 2026, short visits to QSR chains fell sharply YoY, while short visits to fast casual chains also decreased – their first such decline of 2026. The drop in visits under 10 minutes to both segments – a duration typically associated with drive-thru, but also pickup, and delivery orders – suggests that diners are not only looking to reduce fuel consumption but are increasingly prioritizing the experience of dining out over the convenience of picking up food to go.
With summer travel season around the corner and some modest relief at the pump beginning to emerge, drive-thru traffic, for its part, could shift into a higher gear in the weeks and months ahead.
May's dining data highlights a growing divide within the restaurant industry. While consumers continue to make room for special-occasion dining, value-oriented segments face mounting challenges as economic pressures persist. And with short-duration visits declining across both QSR and fast casual chains, elevated fuel costs may be reshaping how consumers approach their favorite chains.
For the latest dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Following five consecutive quarters of declining same-store sales, Wendy's has appointed Robert D. “Bob” Wright – fresh off a successful turnaround at Potbelly – to steer the Dublin, Ohio-based chain back to growth. Can Wright work his magic once again? We dove into the data to understand what it will take to engineer another comeback.
Wendy's appointment of Bob Wright is rooted in his success leading Potbelly through a strong post-pandemic recovery. During Wright's tenure, Potbelly outperformed the broader fast-casual segment, while Wendy's has struggled to keep pace with the QSR industry's recovery – and Wendy's is likely betting that Wright can bring a similar turnaround playbook to Wendy's.
But whether Wright can replicate his success at Potbelly depends, in part, on what's driving Wendy's current challenges.
While macroeconomic headwinds have pressured value-oriented restaurant spending, they do not fully explain Wendy’s recent traffic struggles.
Wendy’s, McDonald’s, Burger King, and Taco Bell all attract visitors from trade areas with similar median household incomes, yet Wendy’s has been the only chain to consistently post substantially weaker same-store visit performance over the past year.
Cross-visitation data further suggests that Wendy's challenges extend beyond macroeconomic headwinds. Since 2019, Wendy's customers have become increasingly likely to visit competing restaurant chains, indicating that the brand may be losing differentiation in an increasingly crowded market.
The encouraging news for Wendy's is that the traffic data points to several areas of underlying strength. If Wendy's can reconnect with consumer segments and dayparts where it has historically demonstrated traction, it may be able to reignite growth without fundamentally reinventing the brand.
On the demographic front, AI-based location analytics suggests that Wendy's may already possess an advantage that many restaurant chains are trying to build – a meaningful connection with younger consumers. Compared to the broader QSR industry, Wendy's captured market includes a larger share of younger, nonfamily households, indicating that the brand has established a stronger foothold among Gen Z and younger millennials than many of its peers.
So rather than trying to fundamentally reshape its customer base, Wendy's may have a greater opportunity to build on an audience that is already engaging with the brand. The success of initiatives such as the SpongeBob SquarePants collaboration demonstrates how culturally relevant campaigns can translate that engagement into traffic gains, giving Wendy's a potential blueprint for strengthening its relevance with younger consumers even further.
At the same time, the chain also overindexes on older consumers, positioning it to appeal to two demographic groups that many brands struggle to reach simultaneously. This positions the brand to appeal to two demographic groups that many restaurant concepts struggle to reach simultaneously and may create opportunities across multiple dining occasions. In particular, older consumers could represent a valuable audience for breakfast, a daypart where Wendy's has historically invested heavily but has recently begun to pull back.
Indeed, Wendy's has recently allowed some franchisees to reduce breakfast hours as demand has softened across the industry. Yet the data suggests that the brand's breakfast's challenges are not solely a function of weakening consumer demand for QSR breakfast – Wendy's morning traffic has fallen substantially faster than the category as a whole, pointing to a meaningful share loss.
That dynamic – especially given the brand's overindexing among older diners – raises questions about whether further retrenchment is the right long-term strategy. Even though breakfast accounts for a relatively small share of overall visits (less than 9% of Wendy's visits take place between 6 AM and 10 AM) abandoning the daypart risks accelerating traffic declines, and it is not clear that consumers who stop visiting Wendy's for breakfast will simply shift their visits to lunch or dinner. Instead, targeted efforts to improve breakfast awareness, relevance, and differentiation could help Wendy's close one of its largest performance gaps and recapture incremental visits that might otherwise be lost to competitors.
While Wendy's challenges are real, location analytics suggest that the chain is far from starting from scratch. Between its established appeal among younger consumers, its strength with older diners, and a breakfast business that still has room to improve, Wendy's has several levers it can pull to regain momentum. If Bob Wright can apply the same combination of focus, differentiation, and disciplined execution that fueled Potbelly's turnaround, Wendy's may be better positioned for a comeback than recent traffic trends suggest.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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May 2026 brought a fresh round of return-to-office (RTO) pressure – PNC Financial's five-day mandate took effect at the start of the month, while EY told its U.S. tax teams to plan for more in-person time this summer. Both join a growing list of employers tightening face-time policies. At the same time, gas prices climbed to an average of $4.61 in May, making the commute more expensive for employees who drive to work.
How did these competing forces play out on the ground? Did the office recovery continue, or was May the first month this year to show signs of slowing down? We dove into the data to find out.
At first glance, May's results suggest a slowdown. Total visits to the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Index were 38.6% below May 2019 levels and 1.2% below May 2025.
But the apparent weakness is largely explained by the calendar. May 2026 included only 20 working days, compared to 21 in May 2025 and 22 in May 2019. When adjusting for business days, visits were actually 3.7% higher than last year and just 32.4% below the 2019 baseline – compared to 34.9% for May 2025. In other words, May 2026 was the busiest May for per-working-day office attendance since the pandemic, extending the streak in which every month so far this year has set a post-pandemic high for its respective calendar month.
Still, even when normalized, the pace of YoY growth was modest, suggesting that higher commuting costs may be tempering some of the gains from ongoing return-to-office initiatives.
Nationwide Office Index, May 2026
The same calendar effect carried across the major markets, where most cities showed year-over-year declines on raw visits that turned positive once working days were accounted for. San Francisco led the year-over-year (YoY) field, with per-working-day visits up 8.2% – tracking the city's AI-driven leasing recovery. With its strongest leasing quarter this year since 2014, declining office availability, and robust net absorption, the city appears increasingly well-positioned to sustain its momentum.
Los Angeles followed at +6.5% YoY per working day, with Dallas, Chicago, Miami, New York, and Boston all in positive territory. Only three markets stayed slightly negative: Denver, down 1.4% from a year ago, Houston, down 0.6%, and Washington, D.C., essentially flat at -0.1%.
Denver's continued softness likely reflects the same dynamics noted last month – a particularly remote-friendly labor market and record-high downtown vacancy. Still, improving net absorption and gradually strengthening demand for Class A office space may portend stronger visitation trends in the months ahead. Houston's slight decline, meanwhile, may partly stem from contraction in its dominant energy sector, where major employers such as Chevron have reduced local headcount.
On the longer view versus 2019, the RTO rankings held their usual shape. Miami remained the clear leader, sitting 11.0% below its pre-pandemic baseline on a per-working-day basis, with New York next at 18.3% below. Denver finished last once more, down 48.4% from 2019. And San Francisco held onto third-to-last position, showing how far it has come from its former status as the nation's weakest-performing office market.
The pace of office recovery moderated in May, but the calendar accounted for most of the apparent weakness. On a per-working-day basis, office attendance continued to rise, with gains recorded across most major markets.
Whether lower gas prices or additional RTO mandates will reignite a faster recovery later in the year remains to be seen. For now, however, the data suggests that office utilization continues to inch upward, even as the pace of improvement becomes more gradual.
For more data-driven office recovery analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Despite reports of record-low consumer sentiment in May 2026, consumer foot traffic increased year-over-year across all mall formats in May, marking the second straight month of gains and the fourth positive month of 2026.
Some of May's gains may be attributable to a calendar shift. May 2026 included one additional Sunday and one fewer Thursday than May 2025 – and because Sundays typically generate stronger mall traffic than Thursdays, the difference in weekday composition likely provided a tailwind for visitation.
Still, even after adjusting for differences in weekday composition, YoY traffic growth remained positive for both indoor malls and open-air centers. Even outlet malls – which typically require longer drives and cater to less affluent shoppers – maintained traffic levels in line with last year despite ongoing economic pressures.
Year-over-Year Change in Average Daily Visits by Weekday and Mall Format, With Each Format's Calendar-Normalized Monthly Trend
Bars show the year-over-year change in average daily visits for each weekday; dashed lines show each format's calendar-normalized monthly figure.
The stable-to-positive mall visitation trends are particularly notable given the broader discretionary retail environment, where consumer traffic has declined YoY since mid-April as rising gas prices and economic uncertainty have begun to weigh on spending behavior.
What is setting malls apart? One potential explanation is that mall visits and traditional retail spending are increasingly decoupled. Unlike standalone retail stores, malls serve a variety of purposes beyond shopping, including dining, fitness, entertainment, and socializing. As a result, consumers may be scaling back purchases of discretionary goods without materially reducing their mall visits. And while they may be spending less on apparel, accessories, or other retail categories, they may still be spending money within the mall ecosystem through restaurants, entertainment venues, and other services.
But that does not necessarily mean that mall traffic is disconnected from retail demand – as mall resilience may also simply be a reflection of the ongoing bifurcation of the U.S. consumer. Compared to the broader discretionary retail sector, malls draw from more affluent trade areas, giving them greater exposure to households that have remained relatively insulated from recent economic pressures. In this view, consumers are not simply visiting malls for non-retail activities – they are continuing to shop there as well. The combination of a more affluent customer base and an increasingly diversified mix of uses may help explain why mall traffic has remained resilient even as visitation across much of discretionary retail has softened.
While economic uncertainty and weak consumer sentiment are likely to remain headwinds in the months ahead, recent traffic data suggests that malls continue to occupy a unique position within the retail landscape. As malls increasingly blend retail, dining, entertainment, and services – and continue to attract relatively affluent consumers – the sector may remain better positioned than much of discretionary retail to weather a more challenging consumer environment.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
