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The last full week before Christmas (December 15th to 21st) saw massive seasonal spikes in traffic across the board, underscoring the continued importance of physical retail during the holiday season. But while visits rose broadly compared to the year-to-date (YTD) average, year-over-year comparisons tell a more nuanced story, with many traditional gifting categories experiencing modest declines relative to 2024.
Part of this softness likely reflects the calendar shift. Super Saturday fell on December 20th in 2025 but on December 21st in 2024, so 2025 holiday shoppers enjoyed an extra day between Super Saturday and Christmas to complete last-minute purchases. Yet a deeper look at the data suggests that timing alone does not tell the full story. Value-oriented retailers – including dollar stores, thrift stores, and off-price chains – saw traffic remain flat or even increase year over year (YoY) despite the same calendar shift.
So consumers are still spending, but they are trading down, actively seeking deals, and gravitating toward “treasure hunt” retail experiences rather than traditional discretionary splurges.
In a season defined by economic prudence, the most immediate winners were the retailers promising the most bang for the buck. Discount & Dollar Stores – not a traditional holiday category – saw a healthy seasonal uplift of 37.3% compared to their weekly average as well as a 3.8% traffic increase compared to 2024. In contrast, Superstores saw smaller spikes compared to the YTD average and YoY visits dips of 4.6%.
The outperformance of dollar stores suggests that shoppers were making targeted, smaller-basket trips for affordable essentials and stocking stuffers rather than relying solely on the "one-stop-shop" giants.
The "traditional" holiday categories, including apparel and electronic stores, experienced their expected massive seasonal "pop," but – like superstores – struggled to match the highs of 2024.
And while some of the decline can be explained by the calendar shift, the double-digit YoY drop in traffic to key holiday categories such as department stores suggests that timing alone does not account for the slowdown. Instead, the data indicates that consumers are still showing up to buy gifts, but are purchasing fewer items or choosing lower-priced alternatives – forcing traditional discretionary retailers to compete more aggressively for a shrinking share of wallet.
Malls showed a similar pattern, with strong seasonal traffic surges alongside YoY declines – although these YoY gaps were far smaller than in other discretionary categories. This resilience suggests that, despite headwinds facing individual retailers, the mall itself remains the central hub of the holiday shopping experience.
The off-price sector delivered one of the strongest signals this season, posting sharp seasonal traffic surges alongside modest YoY gains despite unfavorable calendar shifts. Thrift stores also stood out, recording a notable YoY increase in visits even as traffic came in slightly below the category’s YTD weekly average – likely reflecting the category’s year-round strength and its relatively recent emergence as a holiday shopping destination.
This data underscores the outsized role of value perception in shaping holiday shopping behavior and highlights the growing appeal of the “thrill of the find.” Whether hunting for a designer deal or uncovering a one-of-a-kind vintage piece, consumers increasingly favored discovery-driven experiences over the standardized assortments of traditional retail.
For retailers looking ahead to 2026, the lessons of this holiday season are stark. First, value is non-negotiable – consumers are actively migrating to formats that offer perceived savings. Second, the mall is not dead, but it is evolving. The format remains a critical seasonal traffic driver, but it must compete harder on convenience and experience. Finally, the success of the off-price and thrift sectors suggests that inventory freshness and the "treasure hunt" dynamic are powerful tools to combat consumer fatigue. As we close the books on 2025, it’s clear that while the consumer is still shopping, they are doing so with a sharper, more critical eye.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Black Friday has long served as a reliable anchor in the retail calendar. But some retailers place less weight on the post-Thanksgiving rush – or even opt out of it altogether – in favor of promotional windows that better align with their customers or brand values.
We analyzed foot traffic patterns at two such retailers, REI and IKEA, to see how alternative promotional strategies can shape visit performance throughout the year.
Mission-driven REI’s decision to close on Black Friday is a deliberate break from retail tradition. The brand’s long-running #OptOutside initiative reflects its commitment to outdoor activity and to the well-being of its employees, who get the day off to spend with friends and family.
The graph below highlights the foot traffic impact of the decision: while the traditional apparel and recreational & sporting goods categories experienced a sharp surge during the week of Black Friday, REI’s visits dropped below its 2025 YTD average.
Even so, the data indicates that REI still captures seasonal momentum. The retailer’s pre-Thanksgiving Holiday Sale delivered a modest visit lift that partially offset its voluntary pause on one of the category’s highest-traffic days. And REI’s post-Black Friday sales – Cyber Monday and last-minute gifts sale – appeared to do some heavy lifting for the brand, while the anticipated end-of-year sale is likely to provide an additional foot traffic boost as shoppers gear up for winter activities.
And beyond the holidays, REI follows a distinct promotional rhythm of its own, leaning into moments – like the start of summer – that reflect the seasonal outdoor needs of its customers. The retailer’s annual Anniversary Sale in May delivered the largest weekly visit spike of 2025, with demand for warm-weather gear sustaining elevated traffic in the weeks that followed. And unlike traditional apparel and recreational and sporting goods retailers, which saw a pronounced back-to-school visit surge in early August, the brand saw a smaller bump during its end-of-summer Labor Day sale.
REI’s alternative holiday cadence sets up an interesting comparison with other retailers – like IKEA – that hold Black Friday sales events but rely less heavily on the milestone than their wider category.
As shown in the graph below, the furniture and home furnishings segment received its largest visit boost of the year in the weeks leading up to and including Black Friday, as consumers likely took advantage of big sales events to spruce up their spaces in anticipation of hosting family and friends for the holidays. IKEA, however, saw just a modest November lift, with weekly visits remaining below the chain’s year-to-date average.
Instead, IKEA anchors its promotional calendar around several event-driven periods throughout the year – most notably its summer sale window from June through August, when the brand capitalizes on home furnishing demand during the peak moving season. Other events, such as IKEA’s winter clearance sale from December 2024 through early January 2025 helped stabilize post-holiday traffic at a moment when category visits softened.
REI and IKEA’s visit trends underscore the value of a promotional calendar built around brand alignment rather than conventional retail expectations. Neither retailer maximizes Black Friday in the way their respective categories do, yet both demonstrate how targeted seasonal events can cultivate consistent demand outside of traditional peak periods.
For more retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Luxury apparel retailers have long been central to the holiday experience, carrying premium gifts for the special people in our lives and offering intricate window displays to admire while out and about. And more recently, thrift stores have also entered the holiday shopping conversation as budget-conscious and sustainability-minded consumers increasingly turn to this segment.
We dove into the data for the luxury apparel and thrift store segments to explore the trends defining each space this holiday season.
Bifurcation in apparel, which has been one of the defining themes of 2025, remains a factor during the holiday season thus far. Many consumers continue to prioritize value as inflation weighs on household budgets, while high-end segments are sustained by affluent shoppers less affected by near-term economic headwinds.
The graph below shows the latest visit trends for thrift stores and luxury apparel retailers, highlighting this bifurcation. Thrift stores have posted consistent double-digit visit growth through the second half of 2025, suggesting that economic pressure, sustainability concerns, and the appeal of the treasure-hunt experience are pushing more consumers toward secondhand shopping. And even though thrift store visits don’t generally surge during the holidays (consumers, it seems, prefer gifting from traditional retail channels), Black Friday traffic to the segment surged this year – highlighting the category's growth potential this holiday season.
At the same time, luxury retailers are also maintaining their footing, outperforming traditional apparel. With the exception of a few softer months, luxury visits have hovered near or above 2024 levels for most of the year, as higher-income shoppers continue to stabilize the segment’s performance.
With the core holiday period in full swing, both ends of the apparel spectrum appear positioned to succeed in the current bifurcated retail landscape.
The bifurcation in apparel and its impact on consumer behavior becomes even more apparent when analyzing the trade area median household income (HHI) of the thrift and luxury segments.
The chart below shows that since 2022, the median HHI of luxury apparel retailers’ captured markets has continued to rise – reinforcing the category’s growing dependence on higher-income shoppers as prices climb and more aspirational consumers shift to other segments.
And this trend is also impacting holiday consumer dynamics. Historically, the median household income (HHI) for luxury retailers dips in October and November as middle-income shoppers enter the market for gifts. However, as the sector's baseline affluence rises, the holiday audience is following suit, with the income gap between year-round and seasonal shoppers narrowing. This suggests that the traditional middle-income splurge is waning, replaced by a holiday consumer who increasingly mirrors the high-income profile of the core luxury client.
On the opposite side of the apparel spectrum, the thrift segment appears to be benefitting from the economic headwinds that have put luxury out of reach for many average-income consumers. The data shows that the segment’s captured market median HHI has inched upward since 2022 (although still below the nationwide median of $79.6K) – suggesting that some higher-income consumers are seeking price relief by trading down to thrift stores.
And while the segment's captured market median HHI also decreases slightly in October and November, the decline is less marked than for the luxury segment, indicating only limited leakage of higher-income thrift visitors during the holiday season. These trends suggest that the thrift segment is benefiting from a more price-sensitive consumer base, as its trade area continues to broaden to include a greater share of higher-income households.
Foot traffic and consumer trends across the luxury and thrift segments reveal deeper shifts in the apparel industry. For luxury retailers, a core affluent audience continues to anchor year-round performance, while the aspirational holiday shopper who once traded up for premium gifts appears less engaged than in previous years. Meanwhile, the thrift segment – and other segments traditionally catering to lower-income shoppers – seem to be benefitting from an increasingly bifurcated landscape that has expanded their reach among a wider range of consumers.
While luxury retailers can’t control macroeconomic conditions, they can double-down on the authentic, premium experiences that sustain high-income loyalty and have historically drawn aspirational shoppers during the holidays. At the same time, thrift stores can’t simply introduce premium merchandise to attract higher-income shoppers, but they can continue to invest in store operations in ways that enhance the treasure-hunting experience and strengthen their overall value proposition.
For more holiday retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
The Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom metro area is emerging as one of California’s most resilient growth stories. Between 2021 and 2023, the region added residents at a steady, if modest, pace, even as the state overall faced declining or stagnant population trends. And by 2024, the CBSA pulled ahead of the national metro average for year-over-year (YoY) population growth, outpacing major California peers including Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego.
What’s driving this momentum? And how is Sacramento’s rise shaping local retail and dining trends?
One factor behind Sacramento’s rise may be its economic diversity. The metro area is over-indexed for a broad cross-section of audience segments, ranging from wealthy and upper suburban families earning more than $100K to young urban singles and professionals bringing in less than $75K. And though the area’s median household income (HHI) sits below the California baseline, the diversity of household types – each contributing different spending patterns – creates a strong foundation for continued economic growth.
Location analytics also show that Sacramento’s expanding, economically diverse population is fueling a flourishing retail scene. From May through October 2025, overall retail visits in the CBSA rose YoY, outperforming California’s state average and keeping pace with national trends. In several key categories – including discount and dollar stores, home furnishings, superstores, and traditional apparel – the metro area exceeded both state and national benchmarks, underscoring Sacramento’s rising consumer strength and regional momentum.
Greater Sacramento’s dining scene is also thriving. Fast-casual and quick-service chains overperformed during the analyzed period, reflecting the region’s growing base of young professionals, urban singles, and families who may favor convenient, affordable dining choices. And while full-service chain visits dipped slightly below 2024 levels, they represented only 12.2% of total traffic across the three dining segments for the period.
Sacramento’s broader rise is also closely tied to the vitality of the city itself. The chart below shows that out-of-market visits – defined here as visits by people who neither live nor work in the city – rose 3.5% YoY over the past 6 months. This influx includes visitors from across the metro and beyond – and HHI data indicates that, on average, they tend to be more affluent than local residents.
These visitors are drawn to Sacramento’s concentration of independent restaurants, bars, retail, and cultural hubs, including its bustling Midtown neighborhood. And a growing calendar of major annual events, from Aftershock to Farm to Fork, is also helping to supercharge local tourism and cement the city’s regional appeal.
Bolstered by investments in major new semiconductor plants and medical centers, the Sacramento CBSA was recently ranked among LinkedIn’s 25 fastest-growing U.S. metro areas for jobs and new talent. And the region’s demographic breadth, strong retail and dining performance, and increasingly magnetic urban core position it for continued growth.
For more data-driven analyses of the trends shaping America’s cities follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Retail corridors have long been central to the holiday experience, offering festive spaces for shopping and intricate window displays to admire. But retail corridors can vary significantly – some cluster large global flagship stores, while others lean into smaller regional formats and boutique-style shops, creating a more lifestyle-oriented setting for spending time with friends and family.
We dove into the data for these two types of retail corridors to explore the foot traffic trends defining each space this holiday season.
Flagship-led corridors such as SoHo in New York City and Union Square in San Francisco typically see their visitation peak in December, when consumers come to browse elegant window displays, holiday lights, and seasonal attractions – often turning a shopping trip into a full outing with friends or family. Union Square’s towering Macy’s Christmas tree, outdoor ice rink, and “Winter Walk” draw crowds looking for a quintessential holiday atmosphere. And SoHo, home to numerous high-end flagship stores, remains one of Manhattan’s most sought-after luxury shopping districts during the holidays.
Both corridors have seen rising visits throughout 2025, suggesting that their December 2025 lifts could exceed last year’s levels.
However, retail corridors that center on boutiques, independent retailers, and lifestyle-oriented offerings rather than global luxury flagships – like Back Bay in Boston and South Congress Avenue in Austin – follow a different seasonal rhythm. Rather than peaking at year-end, visits to these districts spike earlier in the calendar.
Back Bay perhaps benefits from “Open Newbury,” the summer program that closes Newbury Street to vehicular traffic and turns the corridor into a pedestrian promenade, while South Congress sees heightened activity in the spring, before the Texas heat arrives. Both have also seen solid visit growth in 2025, indicating the potential for a healthy December – even if holiday foot traffic plays a smaller role in their overall annual performance compared to flagship-led districts.
As both flagship-led and lifestyle-driven corridors head into December with solid year-to-date momentum, high street retailers have a clear opportunity to capitalize on distinct seasonal strengths. Flagship districts should be prepared for an especially pronounced holiday surge, while lifestyle-oriented corridors can focus on converting growing spring and summer foot traffic bumps into sustained engagement year-round.
For more foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Traffic for manufacturing facilities included in the Placer.ai Manufacturing Index declined 3.5% year over year (YoY) in November 2025, indicating reduced operational intensity that may reflect fewer production shifts, lower output volumes, or scaled-back facility utilization. While part of the decline reflects calendar shifts – November 2025 contained one fewer working day than the prior year – the broader trend aligns with official data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction during the month, underscoring a subdued end to 2025 for the U.S. manufacturing sector.
But even as macro headwinds weighed on other parts of the economy – particularly goods production – e-commerce operators seem to be scaling capacity, expanding hiring, and investing in distribution efficiency. This momentum is reflected in visit gains to e-commerce fulfillment facilities nationwide, with November posting the strongest growth of 2025 at 6.6% YoY.
The consistent upward trajectory in foot traffic indicates that digital retail channels remain a key engine of economic activity, with robust consumer demand fueling the growth of fulfillment networks despite broader industrial softness. The steady gains through the fall in particular suggest that operators are expecting strong holiday demand and are well prepared to handle it.
The softness of the Industrial Index combined with the strength of the E-Commerce Distribution Index highlights a growing paradox: manufacturing activity is weakening even as consumer demand remains firm.
This divergence is likely due to a confluence of factors. Consumer spending may be flowing toward lower-cost online goods and everyday essentials rather than the higher-priced durable goods that drive factory output. Retailers may also be working through excess inventories and placing fewer new orders, while high interest rates make it more expensive for businesses to invest in equipment or expand production. Together, these dynamics point to a two-speed economy heading into 2026 – one powered by resilient consumption and digital commerce, while traditional production continues to recalibrate.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Convenience stores, or c-stores, have been one of the more exciting retail categories to watch over the past few years. The segment has undergone significant shifts, embracing more diverse offerings like fresh food and expanded dining options, while also exploring new markets and adapting to changing consumer needs. We looked at the recent foot traffic data to see what this category's successes reveal about the current state of brick-and-mortar retail.
Convenience stores are increasingly viewed not only as places to fuel up, but as affordable destinations for quick meals, snacks, and other necessities. And analyzing monthly visits to the category shows that it is continuing to benefit from its positioning as a stop for food, fuel, and in some cases, tourism.
Despite lapping a strong H1 2023, visits to the category either exceeded last year’s levels or held steady during all but one of the first eight months of 2024 – highlighting the segment’s ongoing strength. Only in January 2024 did C-stores see a slight YoY dip, likely reflecting a weather-induced exaggeration of the segment’s normal seasonality.
Indeed, examining monthly fluctuations in visits to c-stores (compared to a January 2021 baseline) shows that foot traffic to the category tends to peak in summer months – perhaps driven by summer road trips and vacations – and slow down significantly in winter. Given summer’s importance for convenience stores, the category’s August YoY visit bump is a particularly promising indication of c-stores’ robust positioning this year.
While some C-store chains, like 7-Eleven, have a nationwide presence, others are concentrated in specific areas of the country. But as the popularity of C-stores continues to grow, regional chains like Wawa, Buc-ee’s, and Sheetz are expanding into new territories, broadening their reach.
Wawa, a beloved brand with roots in Pennsylvania, has become synonymous with its fresh sandwiches, coffee, and a highly loyal customer base. Wawa has been a major player in the c-store space in recent years, with a revamped menu driving ever-stronger foot traffic to its Mid-Atlantic region stores. Between January and August 2024, YoY visits to the chain were mostly elevated. And the chain is now venturing into states like Florida – where its store count has grown significantly over the past few years – as well as Georgia and Alabama.
Meanwhile, Texas favorite Buc-ee’s, though known for its enormous stores and mind boggling array of dining options, has a relatively small footprint – but that might be changing. The chain, which also outpaced its already-strong 2023 performance this year, is opening locations in Arkansas and North Carolina, further building on its reputation as a destination for travelers. And Sheetz, another regional chain with a strong presence in Pennsylvania, is also expanding, with plans to open locations in Southern states like North Carolina and Tennessee.
This trend toward regional expansion offers significant opportunities for growth, not only by increasing store count, but also by reaching new consumer bases and target audiences. Customer behavior differs between markets – and by expanding into new areas, c-stores can tap into unique local visitation patterns.
One metric that highlights local differences in consumer behavior is dwell time, or the amount of time a customer spends inside a convenience store per visit. In some regions, visitors tend to move in and out quickly, while in others, customers linger for longer periods of time.
Analyzing convenience store dwell times by state highlights substantial differences in visitor behavior. During the first eight months of 2024, coastal states (with the exception of Oregon) tended to see shorter average dwell times (between 7.5 and 11.8 minutes). On the other hand, in states like Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota, average dwell times ranged between 21.2 and 28.2 minutes.
Interestingly, the states with the longest dwell times also have some of the highest percentages of truck traffic on interstate highways – suggesting that these longer stops are perhaps made by long-haul truckers looking for a place to shower, relax, and grab a bite to eat.
Even as regional favorites expand their reach, nationwide classic 7-Eleven is taking steps to further cement its growing role as a prime grab-and-go food and beverage destination. And like other dining destinations, the chain relies on limited-time offers (LTOs) to fuel excitement – and visits.
One of the most iconic, and beloved c-store LTOs is 7-Eleven’s Slurpee Day, which falls each year on July 11th. The event, during which all 7-Eleven locations hand out free slurpees, tends to drive significant upticks in foot traffic – and this year was no exception. Visits to the convenience store jumped by a whopping 127.3% on July 11th, 2024 relative to the YTD daily visit average – proving that good deals will bring customers in the door.
The convenience store sector continues building on the impressive growth seen in 2023. As many chains double down on expanding both their regional presence and their offerings, will they continue to drive growth in the coming years?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven convenience store updates.
Grocery chains in the United States are increasingly investing in on-site healthcare clinics, transforming their stores into hubs for both food and wellness. While grocery stores have long featured pharmacies and some basic healthcare services like vaccinations, recent years have seen a shift towards more extensive healthcare offerings.
Today, many grocery stores offer a range of services – from primary and urgent care to dental and mental health care. In addition to providing an important community service, grocery-anchored healthcare clinics can boost foot traffic at chains, help health providers reach more patients, and allow shoppers to manage their health and home needs in one convenient trip.
This white paper examines the impact these in-store clinics have on grocery chain visitation patterns and trade area characteristics. Are shoppers more or less likely to make repeat visits to grocery stores with healthcare services? And how does the addition of a clinic affect the demographic profile of a grocery store’s captured market? The report examines these questions and more, offering insights for stakeholders across the grocery and healthcare industries.
Analyzing foot traffic to grocery stores with and without in-store clinics shows the positive impact of these services: Across chains, locations with on-site healthcare offerings drew more visits in H1 2024 than their chain-wide averages.
The Kroger Co., which operates numerous regional banners as well as its own eponymous chain, has been a leader in in-store healthcare services since the early aughts. The company introduced its in-store medical center, The Little Clinic in 2003 – and today operates over 225 Little Clinic locations across its Kroger banner, as well as regional chains Dillons, Jay C Food Stores, Fry’s, and King Soopers.
And in H1 2024, the eight Dillons locations with clinics saw, on average, 93.0% more visits per location than the chain’s banner-wide average. Jay C, which offers two in-store clinics, also saw visits to these venues outpace the H1 2024 banner-wide average by 92.9%. For both chains, relatively small overall footprints may contribute to their outsize visit differences: Indiana-focused Jay C operates just 22 locations, all in the Hoosier State, while Kansas-based Dillons has some 64 locations.
But similar patterns, if somewhat less pronounced, could be observed at Kroger (43.0%), Fry’s (19.2%), and King Soopers (16.5%) – as well as at H-E-B (14.5%), which boasts its own expanding network of in-store clinics.
Analyzing the trade areas of grocery stores with healthcare clinics shows that these services tend to draw more affluent visitors from within the stores’ trade areas.
For some chains, including King Soopers, H-E-B, and Jay C, the clinics are positioned to begin with in areas serving higher-income communities. The median household income (HHI) of King Soopers’ in-store clinic’s potential markets, for example, came in at $92.3K in H1 2024 – significantly above the chain’s overall potential market median HHI of $88.1K. Similarly, the potential markets of H-E-B and Jay C Food Stores with clinics had higher median HHIs than the chains’ overall averages.
And for all three chains, stores with clinics tended to attract visitors from captured markets with even higher median HHIs – showing that within these affluent communities, it is the more well-to-do customers that tend to frequent these venues. (A chain or store’s potential market is obtained by weighting each CBG in its trade area according to the size of the population – thus reflecting the general composition of the community it serves. A chain or store’s captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the business in question – and thus represents the population that actually visits it in practice.)
Other brands, including Fry’s, Kroger, and Dillons, have positioned clinics in stores with potential market median HHIs slightly below chain-wide averages. But within these markets, too, it is the more affluent consumers that are visiting these stores, pushing up the median HHI of their captured markets.
These patterns highlight that, for now, grocery store clinics tend to attract consumers on the upper ends of local income spectrums. This information can be utilized by healthcare professionals and grocery store owners to pinpoint neighborhoods that may be open to grocery-anchored clinics, or to take steps to increase penetration in other areas.
Supermarket giant Kroger is a major player in the world of grocery-anchored healthcare, offering visitors access to pharmacies, clinics, and telehealth options via its grocery stores. What impact has the company’s embrace of healthcare had on visits and loyalty?
An analysis of household compositions across the potential and captured markets of Kroger-owned stores with and without Little Clinic offerings suggests that families with children are extremely receptive to these services.
In H1 2024, Kroger, King Soopers, Fry’s, Jay C, and Dillons all featured captured markets with higher shares of STI: PopStats’ “Households With Children” segment than their potential ones – highlighting the chains’ appeal for families. But the share of parental households in those stores with Little Clinics jumped significantly higher for all five banners.
The share of families with children in King Soopers’ overall captured market stood at 28.3% in H1 2024, higher than the 27.2% in its potential one. But the households with children in the captured markets of King Soopers locations with Little Clinics was significantly higher – 30.6% – and similar patterns emerged at Jay C, Dillons, Kroger, and Fry’s.
This special draw is likely linked to the clinics' focus on family health services like physicals, nutrition plans, and vaccines. The convenience of being able to take care of healthcare, grocery shopping, and pharmacy needs all in one go makes these stores particularly attractive to parents. And this jump in foot traffic shows the strategic advantage of incorporating healthcare services into the retail environment.
Providing essential healthcare services at the supermarket can establish a grocery chain as a crucial part of a shopper's daily life, enhancing visitor loyalty, and helping nurture long-term customer relationships. Indeed, in-store clinics offer a unique opportunity for grocery providers to connect with customers on a level that extends beyond the transactional.
An analysis of several Kroger-branded locations in the Cincinnati metro area showcases the profound impact in-store clinics can have on customer loyalty. In H1 2024, stores with Little Clinics had significantly higher shares of repeat visitors – defined as those making six or more stops at the store during the analyzed period – than those without.
For instance, 36.4% of visitors to a Kroger Marketplace store with an in-store clinic in Harrison, Ohio, frequented the location at least six times during the first half of 2024. But over the same period, only 29.0% of visitors stopped by at least six times to a nearby Kroger location in Cleves, Ohio – just ten miles away. Similarly, 30.7% of visitors to the Beechmont Ave. Kroger Food & Drug location with a clinic visited at least six times in H1 2024, compared to 23.0% for the nearby Ohio Pike Kroger store.
This trend was consistent across the analyzed locations, with those offering in-store clinics attracting significantly higher shares of loyal visitors. These metrics support the value of offering additional services as a draw for frequent visitors, while also providing the clinics themselves with the visitor volume needed to operate profitably.
Texan grocery chain H-E-B is beloved across the state – and though the chain isn’t new to the healthcare scene, it has been doubling down on wellness. In 2022, H-E-B launched H-E-B Wellness, a healthcare platform that offers patrons a variety of medical services, including – as of today – some 12 primary care clinics, many of them inside stores.
H-E-B stores with primary care clinics are helping to cement the grocer’s role as a convenient one-stop for local residents – allowing them to drop in to a nearby location for both daily grocery needs and wellness care.
H-E-B has always placed a premium on community, stepping up to help local residents in times of need. And though the chain as a whole draws an overwhelming majority of its visitors from nearby areas, those with clinics do so even more effectively. In H1 2024, some 83.6% of visitors to H-E-B came from less than 10 miles away. But for locations with primary care clinics, this share increased to 88.0%.
This suggests that wellness services are particularly appealing to nearby residents, strengthening H-E-B’s connection with local consumers even further. And for a grocery store centered on community engagement, the integration of health services into its offerings is proving to be a winning strategy.
H-E-B has been steadily expanding its primary care offerings since it launched the Wellness concept, adding two primary clinics at locations in Cypress, TX and Katy, TX in June 2023. Following the opening of these clinics – which operate Mondays through Fridays – both locations saw marked increases in the share of “Urban Cliff Dwellers” in their weekday captured markets. This STI: Landscape segment group encompasses families both with and without children, earning modest incomes and enjoying middle-class pleasantries.
Between June 2022 - May 2023, the share of “Urban Cliff Dwellers” in the weekday captured markets of the Cypress and Katy locations stood at 9.5% and 7.2%, respectively. But once the stores had clinics in place, those numbers jumped to 12.4% and 11.0%, respectively.
This increase in the stores’ reach among “Urban Cliff Dwellers” immediately following the clinics’ openings suggests that in addition to more affluent consumers, middle-class families also harbor considerable interest in these services. As more retailers continue making inroads into the healthcare sector, they may find similar success in attracting diverse groups of convenience-seeking shoppers.
As grocery stores lean into healthcare, they are transforming into multifaceted hubs that offer both essential health services and everyday shopping needs. Retailers like Kroger and H-E-B are reaping the benefits of boosted foot traffic, higher-income visitors, and strengthened community ties – while offering their shoppers convenience that helps streamline their daily routines.
Walmart, Target, and Costco are three of the most popular retailers in the country, drawing millions of shoppers through their doors each day. Each of these retail giants boasts distinct strengths and strategies that cater to their unique customer bases, allowing them to thrive in a highly competitive market.
This white paper takes a closer look at some of the factors that are helping the three chains flourish. How does Walmart’s positioning as a family-friendly retailer help it drive visits in its more competitive markets? How can Target leverage its reach to drive more loyal visits? And what does the increase in young shoppers frequenting membership warehouse clubs mean for Costco?
We dove into the location analytics to explore these questions further.
Examining monthly visitation patterns for the three retail giants shows Costco’s wholesale club model leading the way with consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth – ranging from 6.1% in stormy January 2024 to 13.3% in June. Family favorite Walmart followed closely behind, seeing YoY foot traffic growth during all but two months, when visits briefly trailed slightly behind 2023 levels before rebounding.
Target, meanwhile, had a slower start to the year, with visits trending below 2023 levels for most of January to April. Over this same period (the three months ending May 2024), Target reported a 3.7% decline in YoY comparable sales. But since then, things have begun to turn around for the chain, with YoY visits rising in May (2.5%), June (8.9%), and July (4.7%). This renewed visit growth into the second half of the year bodes well for the superstore – and the ongoing back-to-school season may well push visits up further as the summer winds down.
For all three chains, Q2 2024’s visit success has likely been bolstered in part by summer deals and intensifying price wars – as the retailers slash prices to woo inflation-weary consumers back to the store.
Over the past few years, consumer behaviors have been changing rapidly in response to shifting economic conditions. This next section explores some of these changes at Walmart, Target, and Costco, to better understand what may be driving these shifts.
One way that consumers have traditionally responded to inflation and other headwinds has been through the adoption of mission-driven shopping – making fewer, but longer, trips to retailers, so that every visit counts. Superstores and wholesale clubs, which offer one-stop shopping experiences, have long been prime destinations for these extended shopping trips. And even during periods when visits have lagged, these retailers have often benefited from extended dwell times – leading to bigger basket sizes.
A look at changes in average dwell times at Walmart and Target suggests that as YoY visits have picked up, dwell times have come down – perhaps reflecting a normalization of consumers’ shopping patterns. With inflation stabilizing and gas prices lower than they were in 2022 and 2023, customers may feel less pressure to consolidate shopping trips than they have in recent years.
In contrast, Costco’s comparatively long dwell times have remained stable over the past several years. The warehouse club’s bulk offerings, plentiful free samples, and inexpensive food court encourage shoppers to spend more time browsing the aisles than they would at other retailers. And even if mission-driven shopping continues to subside, Costco customers will likely keep on making extra-long shopping trips.
While inflation is cooling faster than expected, prices remain high, and new players are stepping into the retail space occupied by Walmart, Target, and Costco – especially dollar stores. Though higher-income customers increasingly rely on the three retail giants for many of their purchases, customers of more modest means are often drawn to the rock-bottom prices offered at dollar stores.
And analyzing the cross-shopping patterns of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco shows that growing shares of visitors to the three behemoths also visit Dollar Tree on a regular basis. In Q2 2019, the share of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco who frequented Dollar Tree at least three times ranged between 9.8% and 13.7%. But by Q2 2024, that share rose to 16.7%-21.6%.
Dollar Tree is leaning into this increased interest among superstore shoppers. Over the past year, Dollar Tree added some 350 Dollar Tree locations, even as it shuttered nearly 400 Family Dollar stores. And the chain recently acquired the leases of some 170 99 Cents Only Stores – offering Dollar Tree access to a customer base accustomed to buying everything from groceries to household goods. As Dollar Tree continues to grow its footprint and expand its food offerings, the chain will be better positioned than ever to provide a real challenge to Walmart, Target, and Costco.
Still, the three retail giants each have unique offerings that distinguish them from dollar stores. This next section examines what sets Walmart, Target, and Costco apart – and how they can continue to strengthen their competitive edge.
With competition on the rise, Walmart, Target, and Costco must display agility in navigating an ever-evolving market landscape. This section dives into the data for each chain’s more successful metro areas to see what factors are helping them outperform nationwide averages – and what metrics the retailers can harness to try to replicate these results nationwide.
Target recently expanded its Target Circle Rewards program, rolling out three new tiers for its 100 million members. And this focus on loyalty has proven successful for the chain. Demographic and visitation data reveal a strong correlation between the median household incomes (HHIs) of Target locations’ captured markets across CBSAs (core-based statistical areas), and their share of loyal visitors in Q2 2024: CBSAs where Target locations’ captured markets had higher median HHIs also tended to draw more repeat monthly visitors.
Target’s captured markets in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, LA CBSA, for example, featured a median HHI of $89.8K in Q2 2024 – and 48.0% of the chain’s LA visitors frequented a Target at least twice a month during the quarter. Target stores in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI CBSA, where the chain’s captured markets had a median HHI of $88.7K in Q2 2024, also had a loyalty rate of 48.0%.
Target generally attracts a more affluent audience than Walmart. And even as the superstore slashes prices to attract more price-conscious consumers, the retailer is also taking steps likely to enhance its popularity among higher-income households. In April 2024, Target debuted a paid membership tier within its loyalty program offering perks like same-day delivery for a fee. Maintaining and expanding these premium offerings will be key for Target as it seeks to attract more affluent customers and replicate its high-performing results in CBSAs nationwide.
The persistent inflation of the past few years, while challenging for some retailers, has also created new opportunities – particularly for wholesalers. Membership warehouse clubs, including Costco, are gaining popularity among younger shoppers, a cohort often looking for new ways to stretch their more limited budgets. An October 2023 survey revealed that nearly 15% of respondents aged 18 to 24 and 17% of those aged 25 to 30 shop at Costco.
A closer look at some of Costco’s best-performing CBSAs for YoY visit-per-location growth highlights the significance of these younger shoppers: In H1 2024, the company’s YoY visit-per-location growth was strongest in areas with higher-than-average shares of young urban singles.
For example, the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA CBSA experienced visit-per-location growth of 10.4% YoY in H1 2024, while the nationwide average stood at 7.9%. And the CBSA’s share of Young Urban Singles, defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset as “singles starting their careers in trade and service jobs,” was 12.1%, well above Costco’s nationwide average of 7.3%.
Walmart is a one-stop shop for everything from affordable groceries to clothing to home furnishings, making it especially popular among families. The retailer actively courts this segment with baby offerings designed to meet the needs of both kids and parents, virtual offerings in the metaverse, and collectible toys.
And visitation data reveals a connection between the extent of different Walmart locations’ YoY visit growth and the share of households with children in their captured markets.
In H1 2024, nationwide visits to Walmart increased by 4.1% YoY, while the share of households with children in the chain’s overall captured market hovered just under the nationwide baseline. But in some CBSAs where Walmart outpaced this nationwide growth, the retail giant also proved especially adept at attracting parental households – outpacing relevant statewide baselines.
In Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA, for example, Walmart experienced 5.0% YoY visit growth in H1 2024 – while the share of households with children in the chain’s local captured market stood 7% above the Massachusetts state average. And in Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI, where Walmart’s share of parental households outpaced the Minnesota state average by an even wider 15% margin, the retailer saw impressive 7.3% YoY visit growth. This pattern repeated itself in other metro areas, suggesting that there may be a correlation between local Walmart locations’ visit growth and their relative ability to draw households with children.
Walmart can continue solidifying its market position by leaning into its family-oriented offerings and expanding its footprint in regions with growing populations of young families.
Walmart, Target, and Costco all experienced YoY visit growth in the final months of H1 2024, with Costco leading the way. And though the three chains still face considerable challenges, each one brings unique strengths to the table. By continuously innovating and responding to changing market conditions, Walmart, Target, and Costco can not only overcome obstacles but also leverage them to reinforce their market positions and drive continued growth.
