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“Turkey Wednesday” – the day before Thanksgiving – is the Black Friday of the grocery sector. Shoppers flock to supermarkets nationwide to pick up everything from turkey to cranberry sauce. And for grocery retailers, the resulting traffic surge marks one of the most important days of the year.
So with the holiday just under our (admittedly, slightly loosened) belts, we dug into the data to see how this year’s milestone performed. Did economic uncertainty or online alternatives keep shoppers home? Or did the milestone drive results?
The data leaves little room for doubt: Turkey Wednesday delivered once again. On November 26th, 2025, visits to grocery stores surged 82.6% above the average day from November 2024 through October 2025. And across the full pre-Thanksgiving week (November 20th–26th), traffic climbed 26.8% above the weekly average.
Turkey Wednesday this year also outperformed 2024: Year over year (YoY), overall grocery visits increased 5.8% on Turkey Wednesday, while the average number of visits per individual location rose 4.8%. And looking at the entire week before Thanksgiving, overall traffic and average visits per location rose 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively.
Which grocery segments contributed the most to the pre-holiday traffic surge? Digging into the data for different grocery formats reveals a clear divide between Turkey Wednesday itself and the days leading up to the milestone, with each segment contributing at different moments.
On Turkey Wednesday, traditional supermarkets came out on top. Visits to chains like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B climbed 85.6% above their 12-month daily average, a larger jump than in 2024. Value and specialty chains also posted YoY gains that outpaced last year – though their spikes were smaller than those seen at traditional grocers.
But widening the lens to the entire week before Thanksgiving reveals a more nuanced picture. While traditional grocery chains dominated Turkey Wednesday itself, value grocery stores have become increasingly vital destinations during the broader pre-holiday period. Over the full week, value grocery visits rose 27.8% above their weekly baseline, edging out the 26.8% increase for traditional supermarkets.
This early-week advantage for budget chains suggests that many price-sensitive shoppers may be planning ahead, spreading trips across multiple days and hunting for better deals before the last-minute rush.
Daily visit patterns further highlight the split between early value planners and day-of shoppers. As the chart below shows, value grocery chains consistently outperformed traditional grocers from Thursday, November 20th through Tuesday, November 24th, as shoppers did the bulk of their shopping. Specialty grocers also kept close pace with traditional supermarkets during this period, occasionally pulling slightly ahead.
Then, on Turkey Wednesday, traditional grocery took the lead with a 104.1% jump over a typical Wednesday – well above the other segments. When shoppers move into last-minute mode, it’s the traditional chains’ broad assortments and familiar layouts that draw them in for those final items.
But while value grocers benefit most from the early phase of holiday shopping, visit-duration data shows that the two-phase pattern plays out across all segments. Between November 20th and 25th, average dwell times rose across grocery formats, peaking on Monday and Tuesday for traditional chains and over the weekend for value and specialty grocers.
Then, on Turkey Wednesday, dwell times eased back from those peak levels – reflecting a shift toward faster, more targeted trips to grab missing ingredients or finalize meal prep. The shift from longer, more deliberate outings to shorter, last-minute stops underscores the two-step rhythm of Thanksgiving shopping: thoughtful planning early on, followed by efficient wrap-ups as the holiday approaches.
Differences between segments notwithstanding, leading grocery chains across formats saw meaningful YoY traffic gains, both on Turkey Wednesday and during the full pre-holiday week. As shown by the chart below, major chains from Trader Joe’s to Meijer experienced YoY increases in the average number of visits to each location during the pre-Thanksgiving rush, pointing to widespread sector-wide strength during the milestone.
Grocery’s strong performance on Turkey Wednesday – the first big milestone of the holiday period – offers a welcome sign of shopper resilience in a season defined by concerns over confidence.
And as the festive season continues, grocery chains across formats can use these insights to refine their layouts, promotions, and assortments to capture even more pre-holiday traffic. Traditional grocery chains, for example, may look to strengthen their value-focused offerings to appeal to early planners in the pre-Christmas period, while value grocers might consider strategies to capture more of the last-minute traffic that intensifies as the holiday approaches.
For more data-driven grocery insights check out Placer.ai’s free industry trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
During the quarter ending August 16, 2025, Kroger’s same-store sales (excl. fuel) rose 3.4% year over year, slightly outperforming the prior reporting period’s 3.2% increase. Behind that steady sales growth is a surge in digital engagement: E-commerce sales – including BOPIS (buy-online-pickup-in-store) – jumped 16.0%, building on an already impressive 15.0% increase the previous quarter.
This digital momentum is showing up in store traffic as well. Over the past several months, total visits to Kroger’s banners have grown modestly, between 0.4% and 3.3% year over year (YoY). But short visits (under ten minutes) have really accelerated, suggesting rising shopper appetite for curbside and in-store pickup – an especially promising sign for the grocery leader as it doubles down on digital profitability. Last week, Kroger announced the closure of several automated facilities and a pivot toward store-based fulfillment and third-party delivery partnerships. And with the increasing use of BOPIS, that strategy appears well-aligned with how many customers are already choosing to shop.
Zooming in on Kroger’s individual brands reveals a similar trend. Short visits led the way across all major Kroger banners, from its namesake stores to Fred Meyer’s hypercenter format. At the same time, longer in-store visits also trended upward, showing that traditional in-store shopping remains resilient even as digital and pickup channels expand.
And like many other retailers, all Kroger brands saw positive YoY visit growth in October. This renewed strength in a category like grocery that doesn’t typically feature major October promotions may signal improving consumer resilience heading into the holidays.
Foot traffic patterns highlight Kroger’s growing strength in balancing digital convenience with in-store engagement. And as the company refines its fulfillment model, its ability to efficiently serve customers across channels may prove to be a key competitive edge as Q4 wears on.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The holiday season is apparel’s time to shine. Steep seasonal markdowns draw budget-conscious consumers eager to save a few bucks on refreshing their wardrobes, while a wide array of gift options entices those hunting for that perfect sweater their sister would never buy for herself.
But to make the most of this opportunity, retailers need to understand their shoppers. Who is driving holiday visit traffic to clothing stores – and what are they after?
If last year is any indication, off-price brands will likely see a steady climb in visits from early November onward, fueled by continuous markdowns and the treasure-hunt appeal of new inventory. Traditional apparel retailers, by contrast, are more likely to see sharper, event-driven spikes – especially around key milestones like Black Friday.
The two apparel categories also differ in how shoppers spend their time once they’re in-store.
Traditional retailers see visit durations rise on Black Friday, as shoppers looking to restock their closets take time to browse and try on clothes. But during key December milestones like Super Saturday and the days leading up to Christmas, dwell times actually dip below average as shoppers focus on quick gift purchases rather than personal shopping.
Off-price retailers, on the other hand, sustain longer dwell times throughout most of the season. This suggests that many off-price shoppers are combining gift buying with taking advantage of seasonal prices to purchase clothing for themselves and their families. Only on Christmas Eve do visit durations to off-price retailers fall below average, as shoppers make their final dash for stocking stuffers.
Unsurprisingly, off-price retailers draw less affluent shoppers than traditional apparel chains. But during the holiday shopping season, both segments attract broader audiences than usual. Last December, the captured markets of both types of retailers included higher shares of middle- and lower-income consumers that may not typically splurge on new clothes – though as illustrated by the chart below, the shift was more pronounced for off-price retailers.
While off-price retailers have seen stronger foot traffic trends this year, the holidays remain a critical period for both segments. And by understanding shifts in consumer behavior, retailers across apparel categories can better tailor their strategies to capture demand:
For more data-driven apparel insights check out Placer.ai’s free industry trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Visits to DICK’S Sporting Goods remained below 2024 levels through most of 2025, but the year-over-year (YoY) gap has narrowed – improving from -6.0% in Q1 to -2.6% in Q3. This YoY visit gap is partly due to store closures: Over the past year, DICK’s has closed several locations, leading to a drop in its total unit count. And monthly data points to renewed momentum for Q4 – October visits climbed 2.2% YoY, marking the company’s strongest performance of the year and a promising sign for the holiday season.
DICK’s solid positioning ahead of the holidays is also supported by recent sales results. For the quarter ending August 2nd, 2025, comparable sales rose 5.0% YoY, driven primarily by a 4.1% increase in average ticket size and supported by a 0.9% uptick in transactions – with e-commerce once again outpacing overall company performance.
The retailer is also deepening its digital engagement through its Game Changer youth sports app, which last quarter reached 7.4 million unique active users. At the same time, DICK’S recent acquisition of Foot Locker opens new opportunities to drive in-person shopping growth, while its expanding House of Sport concept strengthens the brand’s experiential footprint.
As the all-important holiday season approaches, will DICK’S continue to grow its foot traffic? Or will inflation fatigue keep shoppers at home?
Follow Placer.ai's data driven retail analyses to find out what lies ahead for DICK’S.
Consumer sentiment has fallen to historic lows as financial strain and inflation fatigue take their toll. Yet some retail categories continue to see steady visit growth, and dollar stores are among the standouts.
We dove into the visit data for two major players in the space – Dollar Tree and Dollar General – to see how they are faring in 2025.
Dollar Tree and Dollar General are entering the final quarter of the year on the tails of consistent, meaningful visit growth, with visits to both chains elevated every quarter from Q1 2024 onward. These results are consistent with both chains’ reporting, with Dollar Tree’s Q2 2025 net sales up 12.3% YoY, and comp sales rising 6.5%. Dollar General delivered similarly steady growth, with Q2 2025 net sales up 5.1% while same-store sales grew 2.8%.
Monthly visits, like quarterly trends, were elevated, with a notable uptick in October. Dollar Tree’s YoY visits climbed from -0.1% in September to 2.8% in October, while Dollar General’s rose from 4.4% to 6.0% over the same period, likely driven by Halloween shopping and early seasonal momentum ahead of the holidays.
Both brands continue to focus on expanding their fleets, signalling that both Dollar Tree and Dollar General are confident that their value propositions will continue to resonate with shoppers.
Dollar Tree and Dollar General continue to grow, propelled by consumers’ ongoing prioritization of value and affordability. As the holiday season approaches, both retailers seem well-positioned to capture increased traffic and spending from cost-conscious shoppers.
For the most up-to-date retail insights, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The world of work remains in flux as companies and employees keep redefining the new “normal”. On the one hand, hybrid work has become ubiquitous – and remote-driven concepts like “microshifting” are reshaping how we think about maximizing productivity. At the same time, growing awareness of co-location’s role in sustaining the social infrastructure that fuels innovation and success is prompting more companies to call employees back to the office. In 2025 alone, employers from Toyota to JP Morgan Chase, the Washington Post, Paramount/Skydance, and even the federal government joined the wave with five-day-a-week in-office mandates.
But how are these countervailing currents playing out on the ground? Is office foot traffic reaching a plateau or is the return to office (RTO) still gaining momentum?
In October 2025, visits to Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index were 30.8% below October 2019 levels. While this represents a larger year-over-six-year (Yo6Y) visit gap than in September, it still signals meaningful progress: September 2025 included one extra working day compared to 2019, whereas October had one fewer. And when controlling for the number of business days, October actually saw 1.2% more traffic than September.
Year over year (YoY), too, nationwide office visits grew 4.7% in October 2025 (see second graph below) – showing that even amid entrenched hybrid norms and ongoing pushback against in-person requirements, office visit numbers continue to trend steadily upwards.
Turning to regional RTO trends, Miami and New York continued to lead the post-pandemic recovery pack. In another sign of San Francisco’s emerging turnaround, the city once again outpaced Chicago for Yo6Y growth and recorded the fastest YoY visit growth of any analyzed city. Southern hubs Dallas and Houston also outperformed the nationwide Yo6Y benchmark of -30.8%, while Houston just slightly lagged at 34.9%.
And in another indication of on-the-ground resistance to five-day mandates, location analytics suggests that employees really are quiet-quitting Fridays – at least when it comes to in-office work. Between January and October 2025, just 12.4% of weekday visits to office buildings took place on Fridays, compared to 24.3% on Tuesdays, 23.7% on Wednesdays, and 21.8% on Thursdays.
The extent of the phenomenon varies by market – employees were most likely to make the end-of-week trek to the office in Miami and Dallas and least likely to do so in Boston and Chicago – though no analyzed city saw a share of Friday visits above 15.0%. And despite New York City’s strong overall RTO, the Big Apple trailed the national baseline in Friday attendance.
October 2025’s Office Index data shows that the RTO story is still far from settled. Hybrid habits remain deeply ingrained, yet steady progress suggests a gradual rebalancing between flexibility and presence – one that will continue to shape the workplace landscape in the months ahead.
For more data-driven office visit insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
