.svg)
The holiday shopping season is nearly upon us – and one category that always benefits from holiday sales is apparel. So with Q4 underway, we checked in western wear leader Boot Barn and discount footwear chain DSW (Design Shoe Warehouse, owned by Designer Brands, Inc.) to see how they fared in Q3 2024 – and what awaits them as Black Friday approaches.
Boot Barn and DSW – two very different shoe retailers – have been thriving in recent months. Since May 2024, the two chains have seen sustained monthly year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, finishing out Q3 2024 with visit upticks of 10.8% (Boot Barn) and 10.5% (DSW).
For Boot Barn in particular, Q3’s robust visit growth was at least partially driven by the chain’s aggressive expansion strategy: Between July 2023 and June 2024, Boot Barn opened some 50 new stores – and plans to open dozens more over the coming year. But foot traffic data also shows that the chain has succeeded in growing its footprint without significantly diluting traffic at existing locations. During Q3, the average number of visits to each Boot Barn location dipped just slightly below 2023 levels (2.8%), even as YoY visits to the chain surged by 10.8%.
DSW, for its part saw significant YoY visit growth throughout Q3, despite a store count that has remained relatively stable. As a store that offers shoppers access to high-quality, name-brand products at affordable prices, DSW lets consumers trade down while splurging at the same time.
DSW isn’t called a warehouse for nothing. The typical DSW store spans about 25,000 square feet (though the chain has begun experimenting with smaller formats) – compared to just 12,000 - 14,000 for Boot Barn. But despite the smaller size of Boot Barn’s locations, visitors to the western wear chain tend to spend more time in-store than visitors to DSW. Since 2022, average visitor dwell times at Boot Barn have ranged between 34.9 and 35.8 minutes, while dwell times at DSW have hovered between 32.1 and 32.8 minutes.
Customers at DSW may be more likely to know in advance what they’re looking for, making a bee-line for the discounted footwear they’ve been waiting to get their hands on. Visitors to Boot Barn, on the other hand, may spend more time browsing the brand’s wider selection of merchandise.
The difference in visitor dwell times may also be partially due to Boot Barn’s firmer positioning as a weekend destination: Over the past twelve months (October 2023 - September 2024), 59.5% of visits to Boot Barn took place between Fridays and Sundays, compared to 56.3% for DSW.
Still, visitors to both chains tend to remain in-store for more than half an hour – revealing a highly engaged customer base eager to explore the brands’ varied offerings.
With a strong Q3 2024 under their belts, what can DSW and Boot Barn expect this holiday season?
Looking at weekly fluctuations in visits to Boot Barn and DSW in 2022 and 2023 – compared to yearly weekly averages – reveals another striking difference between the two chains: Visits to Boot Barn peak in November and December each year, as customers descend upon the chain to purchase western-themed gifts for loved ones. DSW, on the other hand, sees greater visit boosts in spring, perhaps buoyed by shoppers updating their wardrobes in anticipation of warmer weather.
But zooming in on the two chains’ busiest days of the year tells a somewhat different story. Even though DSW experiences a more muted holiday shopping season, the shoe leader – like Boot Barn – draws its biggest crowds of the year on Black Friday. On November 24th, 2023, visits to DSW jumped 134.5% compared to the chain’s daily average for the 12-month period from October 2023 to September 2024 – a smaller spike than that seen by Boot Barn, but significant nonetheless.
After that, however, the chain’s visitation patterns diverged. For DSW, the next eight busiest days of the year were all Saturdays in Spring – including the Saturday before Mother’s Day (May 11th) and the Saturday before Easter (March 30th). For Boot Barn, on the other hand, December shopping days – including Super Saturday (December 23rd) – drove the biggest foot traffic spikes.
With holiday shopping just around the corner, DSW and Boot Barn both appear poised to enjoy a healthy Q4 – each in their own way. Which other footwear and apparel brands are likely to succeed this holiday season?
Follow Placer.ai's data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Holiday shopping creep is upon us once again. Though Black Friday is still several weeks away, a shorter holiday shopping window (just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas) has many retailers more eager than ever to get the ball rolling. And with Amazon’s October Prime Big Deal Days the focus of much consumer excitement, major brick-and-mortar players like Walmart, Target, and Best Buy have launched important fall sales events of their own.
Among these pre-holiday promotions, Target’s October Circle Week stands out as a favorite, offering millions of shoppers deep discounts across a wide range of categories, from household essentials to early holiday gifts. What can location analytics tell us about how this year’s Circle Week (October 6th-12th) resonated with consumers? We dove into the data to find out.
Looking first at weekly year-over-year (YoY) visits to Target shows the power of this major sales event to get shoppers moving. Following a successful back-to-school shopping season, visits began to taper off in September. But during the week of October 7th, which included most of Circle Week, visits began to trend back upwards – perhaps signaling consumer responsiveness to early holiday discounts.
A more direct comparison between this year’s fall Target Circle Week and the one held in October 2023 (October 1st to 7th of last year) shows foot traffic up 0.7% YoY, further highlighting consumer resilience in 2024. Though the increase is a modest one, it is no small feat in a retail environment still characterized by high prices and cautious consumer sentiment.
Drilling down deeper into the data for different regions of the country paints a somewhat more nuanced picture. While in some areas of the country – particularly the Midwest and Northeast – Target Circle Week drew fewer visits this year than last (in most cases a decline of less than 3.0%), in others foot traffic increased substantially. In major southern markets like Texas and Florida, visits rose 4.2% and 3.8%, respectively. South Carolina, which has emerged as a major domestic migration hotspot in recent years, saw traffic jump an impressive 12.6%. And in California, Target’s biggest market, visits increased 1.0% YoY.
But consumer behavior during Target Circle Week doesn’t just vary across regions – it also changes throughout the week-long sale period.
In both 2023 and 2024, Target’s October Circle Week started with a bang, as eager customers flocked to the chain to get first dibs on special sale items. Visits on launch day increased 5.0% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024, compared to a January 1st to October 13th daily visit average. Activity then tapered off during the work week, with Monday - Thursday visits hovering just below daily visit averages for those days of the week. But on Friday and Saturday, foot traffic picked up again as shoppers utilized their time off to hit the sales.
Early October holiday sales are quickly becoming de rigueur – and an important bellwether of overall Q4 performance. Target’s successful Circle Week this fall signals consumer resilience in the face of headwinds – though engagement levels varied throughout the country. How will the all-important Q4 continue to play out for brick-and-mortar retailers this year?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack have emerged as restaurant leaders, thriving and outperforming the wider fast-casual and quick-service restaurant (QSR) categories. How did these chains perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack have become some of the most popular dining chains in the nation, each within its own respective niche: Chipotle excels at health-focused Tex-Mex meals, Wingstop serves up chicken wings and other game-day style dishes, and Shake Shack is known for its burgers and frozen custards. All three chains are leaning into growing demand for their offerings by adding new restaurants at a brisk clip. And for all three, the investment in fleet expansion is paying off, driving double-digit YoY visit growth.
Of the three chains, Wingstop enjoyed the strongest YoY growth between June and September of this year, with visits rising 16.5% to 33.5% throughout the analyzed period. Shake Shack, for its part, saw visits increase between 12.4% and 25.9%. Meanwhile, Chipotle, continuing several years of visit growth, posted 10.0% to 12.9% YoY boosts. In contrast, the overall quick-service and fast-casual restaurant segments saw much more muted performance, with QSR visits hovering at or slightly below 2023 levels and fast-casual segments seeing modest visit upticks.
One key driver behind the significant foot traffic growth for these three chains is their aggressive expansion. Wingstop, which saw the largest year-over-year (YoY) increase in foot traffic, opened some 138 new restaurants in 2024 alone, and hopes to open around 300 by year’s end. Chipotle has also been expanding rapidly, with around 52 new stores in 2024 so far and more on the way. Shake Shack, aiming to open 80 new locations this year, is similarly focused on growth.
A closer look at shifts in the average number of visits to the chains’ individual locations shows that this expansion is being met with strong demand. Chipotle and Wingstop saw monthly YoY visit-per-location increases throughout the analyzed period, while Shake Shack saw increases between June and August and experienced just a minor dip in September.
These foot traffic trends – both across the chains and at individual locations – indicate that the new stores are successfully attracting steady customer interest.
Another key factor driving success for the three chains is their pivot towards convenient takeaway options. Chipotle has focused on expanding its Chipotlane drive-thru service, while Wingstop has invested in an in-store digital platform meant to streamline the ordering process. And despite Shake Shack’s “anti fast-food” identity, the chain has also embraced drive-thrus and ordering kiosks to speed up service.
The data suggests that consumers appreciate the increased convenience of these quicker options: In Q3 2024, short visits (10 minutes or less) to Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack surged between 17.0% and 25.5% compared to Q3 2023.
For Chipotle and Shake Shack, short visits increased significantly more than extended ones in Q3, likely due in part to the brands’ intense focus on drive-thrus: Of the 271 restaurants opened by Chipotle in 2023, 238 included Chipotlanes. And since adding its first drive-thru in 2022, Shake Shack has expanded this option to more than thirty locations. For Wingstop, longer visits increased somewhat more YoY than shorter ones – but in the wake of the chain’s rapid expansion, short and long visits both increased more than 20% YoY.
Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack are succeeding, consistently increasing foot traffic and visits per location. Through strategic expansion and the adoption of drive-through and online ordering, these brands have firmly established their presence in the fast-casual and quick-service dining landscape.
Will the three restaurants continue to drive visit growth? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
With Q3 2024 in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with two smoothie and bowl spots that are firmly in expansion mode – Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe. What lies behind their smashing success? And what awaits them in Q4?
We dove into the data to find out.
Looking first at quarterly YoY visit trends shows both Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe experiencing substantial year-over-year visit growth during the first three quarters of 2024 – driven in part by their rapidly growing fleets. In Q1 2024, Playa Bowls – recently acquired by Sycamore Partners – saw a YoY foot traffic jump of 8.7%. And Tropical Smoothie Cafe, acquired by Blackstone this year, saw a YoY visit boost of 8.7%. For both chains, this positive trajectory continued, though at a more moderate pace, through Q3 2024.
What's behind the fast expansion and visit growth of these smoothie leaders? With high food prices still weighing on consumers, and health still top of mind for many, brands that provide nutritious, affordable indulgences are poised to win. Those that do so while meeting the rising demand for quick and convenient dining options are especially well-positioned to thrive.
And drilling down deeper into the data for Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe shows that the two chains’ outsize success is being fueled, in large part, by customers dropping by for a quick pick-me-up on the go, rather than a sit-down meal.
In Q3 2024, the number of short visits to Playa Bowls (i.e. those lasting less than 10 minutes) increased 9.4% YoY, while longer visits increased just 4.5%. (In Q3 2024, short visits accounted for 31.2% of visits to Playa Bowls, compared with 30.3% in Q3 2023). This suggests that robust demand for off-premises dining has emerged as a major driver of growth for the brand.
A similar trend emerged at Tropical Smoothie Cafe, where nearly half of all Q3 2024 visits (48.4%) lasted less than 10 minutes – likely due to the chain’s ubiquitous drive-thrus. Short visits to Tropical Smoothie Cafe increased 6.0% YoY in Q3, while more extended visits increased 3.3%.
Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe have also fueled success by marking special calendar days with limited-time promotions.
For Playa Bowls, for example, the busiest day of 2024 so far was April 6th – National Acai Day – when the juice bar offered rewards members $5 off any acai bowl. The promotion was wildly successful, fueling a remarkable 122.7% visit surge compared to a year-to-date (January to September) daily average.
For Tropical Smoothie Cafe, it was National Flip Flop Day (yes, that’s a thing) that drew major crowds this year. On May 29th, 2024, the brand marked the occasion with free Island Punch Smoothies for guests who visited participating locations while wearing flip flops. And the promotion was a hit, generating enough excitement to drive a 94.0% visit spike for the brand.
Successful harnessing of the growing demand for convenient, healthy, and affordable off-premises dining options together with unbeatable limited-time promotions have helped propel growth for both Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe.
Will visits to the two chains continue to surge in the months ahead?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven dining analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Most chains attending the 2024 Fast Casual Executive Summit in Denver acknowledged that this year has been difficult (unless you happen to be Chipotle, CAVA, or sweetgreen). We’ve highlighted a number of the challenges restaurant operators faced this past year, including inclement weather to start the year, the restaurant value wars of 2024, encroachment from other food retail channels, and the rising cost of operating a restaurant, which has resulted in increased bankruptcies. Our data validates this stance–our data shows that the fast casual category excluding the three aforementioned chains has seen year-over-year visitation declines.
Why are these three chains outperforming? As we’ve discussed in the past, we believe it comes down to (1) innovation; and (2) operational excellence. Recently, we looked at the importance of Chipotle’s Chicken al Pastor relaunch for Q2 2024 sales trends, sweetgreen’s increase in comparable visits that was helped by the launch of Caramelized Garlic Steak as a protein option, and CAVA’s exceptionally strong visitation trends due the launch of grilled steak at the beginning of June. However, innovation is only part of the outperformance, as each of these chains have also done a great job integrating their digital ordering platforms and in-store assembly line efforts, allowing for greater customization (something consumers appear to be willing to pay a premium for) and driving some of the strongest throughput numbers we’ve observed with our data.
The executives we spoke to at this week’s event had a gameplan to overcome these challenges in 2025.
Another executive told us that the currently challenging backdrop would ultimately make chains better operators. Not every chain can be Chipotle, CAVA, or sweetgreen, but there are still a lot of their strategies that restaurants can adopt to improve their own operations.
The inaugural Shoptalk Fall event brought a new energy to Chicago this week. The smaller format event allowed us to dive deeper into the trends across the retail industry and hear from key retail players about their initiatives and innovations across the industry.
One thing that is clear, retailers are bullish about physical retail. Many retailers shared plans for store openings in 2025, and there is a real focus on creating the right types of store formats and finding locations that are in line with a brand’s consumers. We may truly be at a point of inflection from a channel perspective, and physical retail is likely to become a more important part of the equation.
There’s a real energy shift in the industry in regard to the importance of stores, and it’s refreshing to see. As the industry settles from the migration shifts of consumers during and after the pandemic, the opportunity for new stores to directly cater to these new groups of shoppers is immense.
And it’s not just about the rise of physical retail, but the stories that retailers are able to tell through their offline channels. Retailers are actively focused on ways to eliminate friction for shoppers, arm store employees with more insights and tools and create experiences that forge lasting bonds with shoppers. We heard from Wayfair, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Michaels and Studs, who all referenced that differentiating experiences are driving loyalty and fostering long-term connections with consumers. Stores are an essential part of building and retaining brand equity with consumers.
The other key theme centers around none other than the consumer. The retail industry feels more customer centric than ever before, especially as we get further away from the pandemic. Retailers and brands recognize that today, the shopper is in the driver’s seat, and many initiatives and innovations center around providing the consumer with more power and knowledge. This is why we are hearing more about "micro-merchandising". Retailers need and can enhance their relevancy by understanding the unique demographics/psychographic differences and preferences of their individual locations.
Executives at McDonald’s provided more insight into the success of June 2023's immensely popular birthday celebration for Grimace, including the Grimace Shake; they built the concept around the idea that many consumers celebrate a birthday at McDonald’s restaurants, but from there they let consumers drive the conversation around the promotion on social media.
We heard from many that word of mouth marketing is truly the key to success in retail today, and empowering consumers to share their thoughts and affinities with others in person or through social media platforms is driving engagement and adoption. Through the lens of foot traffic, we may see more consumers head to stores after hearing about them from others in their network. Marketing departments no longer consist of teams within an organization, but incorporate consumers as well.
Overall, we felt a lot of positivity from the industry about where we’re headed in the near term. As we see the slow rebound of the discretionary side of retail, new stores and innovations in the coming year and a consumer that still remains resilient despite many economic headwinds, the best might be ahead for the industry.
.avif)
It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
.avif)
Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
