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The widespread adoption of hybrid work continues to be one of the most significant paradigm shifts since the COVID pandemic. As employees visit offices less frequently, or not at all, corporate users are opting for less but better space which is driving office vacancy rates to record highs.
But even as utilization for many office buildings remains below capacity, some buildings are clearly prospering. So what sets these thriving properties apart from the pack? We looked at outperforming office buildings in four major metro areas – New York, Chicago, San Francisco, and Dallas – to find out.
The post-pandemic office recovery has been uneven across the country. As of February 2024, a significantly larger share of workers in the New York-Newark-Jersey City and Dallas-Fort Worth CBSAs were back in the office, while office visits in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin and San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley CBSAs remained subdued.
But throughout the country, the reality is much more nuanced as some office buildings struggle to maintain occupancy,others are thriving. We identified four office buildings in four major metropolitan areas where the recovery in utilization was significantly stronger than the respective metro:
What sets these buildings apart from the pack?
One factor that isn’t driving the office recovery at these high-occupancy office buildings is different weekly visitation patterns.
Location intelligence for offices nationwide indicates that hybrid workers appear to prefer coming to the office mid-week: The bulk of weekly visits occur on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, with fewer visits taking place on Monday and even less visits on Fridays. And this was also the weekly visitation pattern in the four CBSAs analyzed as well as in the high-occupancy office buildings. In fact, the outperforming office buildings had even more of their visits concentrated mid-week compared to the visit patterns in the wider CBSA.
It seems, then, that the higher visits to these outperforming offices is not due to more employees coming in on typical WFH days. Instead, more workers are likely coming in mid-week to make up for the lull on Mondays and Fridays.
So who are these visitors? And could they hold the key to these buildings' strong recovery numbers?
Focusing on the period between March 2023 and February 2024 reveals that in all the labor catchment areas of the analyzed Office Indexes, the share of one-person households was larger than the nationwide share of 27.5%. And during the same period, the share of one-person households in the catchment areas of the high-performing office buildings was even greater – almost 50% of households in the captured market of 2010 Flora St. in Dallas consisted of one-person households.
On the other hand, families with children were underrepresented in the catchment areas of the office indexes relative to the nationwide average of 27.1% – and the share of households with children was even lower in the catchment areas of the high-occupancy office buildings.
This indicates that those with young children at home were generally less likely to go into the office – and so the office buildings seeing the strongest post-COVID recovery are those that serve a large contingent of single employees. On the flip side, there is often a motivation for young singles to visit the office more frequently, whether driven by the desire for training and mentorship or the prospect of meeting a significant other in or around the workplace.
Much has been written on the challenging impact that return-to-office mandates can have on working parents – and especially on working mothers – so it may not come as a surprise that employees from family households are underrepresented in office buildings in 2024.
But the fact that one-person households are even more prevalent in the labor markets of the overperforming buildings (as compared to the wider CBSA Office Index) indicates that businesses and office assets can thrive even without wooing working parents back to the office.
So who are these singles driving the return to the office? Some of this segment may be made up of Gen-Zers seeking the networking and mentorship opportunities provided by an in-person office setting. But it’s not just younger workers leading the return to the office – the data indicates that executives and managers also make up an outsized portion of the outperforming buildings’ catchment areas. In all four CBSAs analyzed, the catchment area of the high-occupancy building included a significantly larger share of people in a managerial or executive role compared to the average catchment area composition of the wider CBSA Office Index.
Many of these executives are likely choosing – rather than being forced – to work on-site. Some might be looking to encourage their staff to return to the office by leading by example, while many are likely leveraging their space to host clients, driving foot traffic to these locations higher. But whatever factors are driving the trend – it appears that office buildings looking to bounce back in the new normal need to make sure they are drawing back the managerial ranks.
Analyzing the popular industries and occupations in the catchment areas of the office buildings and industries also reveals that the overperforming buildings serve a much higher share of employees working in finance, insurance, and real estate. A larger share of the catchment area population of the high-occupancy office complexes also works in professional services – including high-tech jobs – compared to the office index in the wider CBSA.
Many financial institutions and tech companies have asked employees to return to the office at least three days a week, which could explain why these industries are overrepresented in the catchment area of the high-occupancy buildings. This data may indicate, then, that while some of the foot traffic is coming from executives choosing to return to their pre-COVID work habits, the return-to-office mandates – whether full or part-time – are likely also helping these buildings stay ahead of the curve.
Although the proliferation of office vacancies across the country can make it seem like the return to office battle has already been lost, several buildings are bucking the trend. Location intelligence indicates that a combination of partial return-to-office mandates along with a larger-than-usual share of visitors from executives and non-parental households is helping these office complexes thrive.
Sweetgreen and First Watch both went public in 2021 and have since steadily increased in popularity – and in store count. So with 2024 well underway, we checked in with the two brands to see how they fared in Q1 and to explore some of the factors underlying their success.
Despite the dining challenges of much of 2023 and early 2024, sweetgreen posted impressive visits between April 2023 and March 2024, with the chain’s YoY traffic increases ranging from 21.4% to 51.6%.
The remarkable visit surge was partially driven by the sweetgreen’s significant expansion, which could explain the slight dips in average visits per location for much of 2023 while consumers around sweetgreen’s newer restaurantes familiarized themselves with the brand’s offerings. But since December 2023, YoY visits per location have been positive – with the exception of a weather-induced slump in January – indicating that the chain’s newer venues have established themselves within their community.
This narrowing of the gap between visits and visits per location may also signal the success of sweetgreen’s strategic shift towards prioritizing "quality over quantity” – slowing down expansion and investing in an enhanced customer experience.
As a salad and grain-bowl chain, sweetgreen holds special appeal for wellness-focused younger consumers, including singles and members of the coveted Gen Z demographic. But as the chain has expanded, it has also succeeded in reaching new audiences.
Sweetgreen has been explicit about its goal of reaching Gen Z consumers. And analyzing the demographic makeup of the chain’s captured market reveals that sweetgreen’s trade area includes a relatively large share of one-person households (that tend to be on the younger side) But analyzing shifts in the chain’s captured market composition over the past five years also reveals that the share of one-person households has been decreasing – while remaining above the nationwide average of 28.0% – and the share of households with children has increased. So even as sweetgreen continues serving its core consumers, the chain’s expansion has also allowed sweetgreen to reach new audiences.
First Watch is also in expansion mode, and with plans to open some 50 more restaurants this year the chain shows no signs of slowing down. And, like sweetgreen, First Watch’s expansion has driven significant growth to the chain’s overall visits – and the chain’s average visits per location numbers are up as well, indicating that the new venues are finding a receptive audience.
By staying nimble on its feet and continually changing up its menu offerings, First Watch has succeeded in differentiating itself from other breakfast chain giants – and appears poised to enjoy continued success throughout the year.
First Watch’s expansion has also helped the company reach new types of diners even as the chain continues catering to its core audience. The share of the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” segment in First Watch’s captured market has held steady over the past five years, even as the share of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Urban Low Income” segments increased. It seems, then, that First Watch has also succeeded in leveraging its store fleet expansion to reach new audience segments – without sacrificing its core patrons.
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Sweetgreen and First Watch’s expansions have helped the companies increase visits and reach new segments – without sacrificing their core audiences. What does the rest of 2024 have in store for the chains?
Visit our blog at placer.ai to find out.
Dining took a hit over the past few years, with major challenges from COVID to rising costs weighing on the category. And perhaps no food-away-from-home segment was more impacted than Full Service Restaurants (FSR) – which stagnated as consumers traded down and sought out more affordable ways to treat themselves.
But new years present new opportunities – and there are signs that sit-down restaurants may be springing back to life. So with 2024 underway, we dove into the data to explore the current state of FSR. Is cooling inflation prompting a rise in Full Service Restaurant activity? How did FSR leaders like Dine Brands (owner of casual dining favorites Applebee’s and IHOP), Bloomin’ Brands (owner of popular grill and steak chains like Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s Italian Grill along with high-end Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar), and Texas Roadhouse fare in Q1?
With some 1500 locations nationwide, Applebee’s has long been a mainstay of the American casual dining scene. Like other FSR chains, Applebee’s experienced a setback during the pandemic and has since faced industry-wide headwinds. But even though the brand’s store fleet shrunk by around 30 stores last year, overall YoY visits to Applebee’s declined just slightly between October 2023 and February 2024 (January’s weather-driven slump aside). And in March, the chain saw a promising 3.8% YoY visit uptick.
Breakfast leader IHOP also experienced negative YoY visits in October and November 2023, but in December – when the pancake chain traditionally enjoys a major holiday boost – visits jumped 2.8% YoY. Like Applebee’s, IHOP felt the effects of January’s Arctic blast, but saw its visits recover quickly in February and March 2024.
Bloomin’ Brands’ leading casual dining chains Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, and Bonefish Grill appear to be following largely similar trajectories.
Though the brands experienced YoY visit gaps through most of Q3 2023 – and were whalloped by January’s inclement weather – all three chains experienced YoY visit increases in March 2024. Given the fact that the restaurants’ store counts didn’t change significantly last year, this visit growth appears to portend good things for Bloomin’s fast casual portfolio in the year ahead.
But it is Bloomin’ Brands’ fine dining concept, Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, that really seems to be hitting it out of the park. While Fleming’s also saw visit gaps between October 2023 and January 2024, the chain experienced 9.6% and 7.5% visit growth, respectively, in February and March 2024 – closing out Q1 with a bang.
Fleming’s particularly robust recent performance may be due in part to its relatively affluent customer base. Nearly one-third of households in Fleming’s captured market have an annual income of $150K or more – compared to just 18.6% to 23.7% for Bloomin’s casual dining concepts. Though a night out at the fine-dining steakhouse can be expensive, Fleming’s well-heeled visitor base is better positioned to absorb price increases than other consumers.
Appealing to affluent consumers, however, isn’t the only way to go. Texas Roadhouse is firmly in the casual dining space and tends to cater to average-income diners. (In Q1 2024, just 15.2% of its captured market had a household income ≥$150K.) But the steakhouse’s strategy of satisfying steak lovers with high-quality, affordable offerings is working: Throughout Q1, Texas Roadhouse experienced strongly positive YoY visit growth. And while some of this growth is attributable to the brand’s increasing unit count, the average number of visits per location is generally keeping pace – showing that Texas Roadhouse’s expansion continues to meet strong demand.
Though more affordable Dining segments like QSR and Fast Casual began to spring back to life last year, FSR has yet to fully recover from the double whammy of COVID and inflation. But if March 2024’s promising numbers are any indication, the category may be in for a turnaround. How will FSR continue to perform as 2024 progresses?
Follow Placer.ai’s Dining deep dives to find out.
Restaurants continue to face headwinds, from still-high food-away-from-home prices to rising labor costs. But despite these challenges, there are promising signs that the industry may be in for an upturn. And increasingly, chains are leaning into breakfast and late night offerings to maximize revenue and foster customer loyalty.
So with Q1 2024 under our belts, we checked in with Wendy’s and Denny’s, two dining leaders with very different offerings in the breakfast space. How did they weather the first quarter of 2024 (pun intended)? And which dayparts experienced the biggest visit boosts in Q1?
After a tough Q4 2023 – and a January 2024 dragged down by cold and stormy weather – YoY visits to Wendy’s and Denny’s began to pick up in February and March 2024. And even accounting for January’s Arctic blast, Wendy’s and Denny’s came out ahead on a quarterly basis, with YoY visits up 0.7% and 1.0% respectively.
Wendy’s first launched its breakfast menu in March 2020, just before COVID sent the dining industry into a tailspin. But despite a rocky start, Wendy’s doubled down on the morning daypart, continually tweaking its breakfast offerings and investing ad dollars to boost breakfast sales.
Drilling down into hourly visit data shows that this strategy is paying off. Visits to Wendy’s during the morning daypart (between 6:00 AM and 11:00 AM) jumped 9.3% in Q1 2024 compared to Q1 2023. The chain’s nighttime daypart – which the burger giant began advertising in 2023 for the first time in four years – also saw a YoY boost. Meanwhile, Wendy’s traditional lunch and dinner time slots held steady, with just minor quarterly visit gaps, indicating that the chain’s overall YoY visit growth in Q1 was driven by its breakfast and nighttime push.
Denny’s has always been all about breakfast. And with some 75.0% of Denny’s locations open 24/7 (even on Christmas), hungry diners frequent the chain day and night to satisfy their cravings for hash browns, eggs, pancakes, and other breakfast favorites.
Unsurprisingly, the chain gets most of its visits in the morning and early afternoon. But in Q1 2024, it was the late night daypart that experienced the biggest YoY visit bump – perhaps driven in part by Denny’s push last year to increase the number of locations open in the wee hours.
But Denny’s busiest time slot, between 11:00 AM and 3:00 PM, also experienced a YoY visit increase – showing that even as the chain cements its role as a go-to nighttime destination, it continues to face healthy demand during more traditional dining dayparts.
Breakfast and late night dining offerings have emerged as important drivers of dining success. How will these dayparts continue to fare as the year wears on? And which other brands will make inroads into the breakfast and nighttime dining game?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining analyses to find out.
At a time when retail loyalty appears to be low, warehouse clubs remain the exception. Bulk is big business in the U.S. retail market, and clubs have found a way to deliver on a combination of value, convenience and experience, and sometimes $1.50 hot dogs. The allure of the warehouse club defies some current consumer logic; U.S. households are not growing according to the U.S. Census Bureau. But, clubs also represent much of what is good in retail today: a broad combination of goods and services, inherent value and high quality private labels.
These factors have aided warehouses in growing store traffic compared to their mass merchant counterparts, particularly in the first quarter of 2024. Clubs--including BJ’s Wholesale Club, Sam’s Club and Costco Wholesale--saw visits increase by almost 8% year-over-year, almost double the combined growth of Walmart and Target during the same period. Mass merchants have been squeezed by other value sectors, clubs have been able to hold their own and continue to provide “perceived” value to shoppers, contributing to their traffic volumes.
Beneath the umbrella of growth, each chain has some surprising competitive advantages, and it’s clear that each club serves a distinct purpose to its visitors. In reviewing daily visits, Sam’s Club owns Saturdays, with 22% of visits occurring that day (as shown below), the highest percentage of visits compared to its competition. In contrast, Costco sees a higher percentage of visits on weekdays, specifically Tuesday through Thursday, compared to the other chains.
While Sam’s Club and Costco stand out in terms of their daily visits, BJ’s excels in the time of day that it attracts higher levels of visitors to its locations. BJ’s draws 7% of visits between 8:00-10:00 AM (show below), which is two points higher than Sam’s Club and more than double Costco’s percentage of visits. Not only does BJ’s attract the morning shopper, but also the afterhours customer. BJ’s over indexes in the percentage of visits between 7:00-10:00 PM, with almost 11% of visits occurring during those later hours. BJ’s locations tend to open earlier and stay open later than their Sam’s Club and Costco counterparts, which vary in operational hours for the clubs themselves outside of gas stations. This creates a distinct advantage for BJ’s, especially in areas of direct competition, as visitors looking to shop at off-hours are likely to visit BJ’s.
It’s clear that each club chain has its key day and time to attract visitors that doesn’t overlap too much with its competitors. Warehouse clubs are doing a fantastic job at meeting their consumers where they are and when they prefer to shop. Clubs benefit from increased loyalty due to membership, but it appears that visitors flock to these clubs no matter the day or time. Maybe it’s time to bring breakfast to the Costco & Sam’s Club food courts?
Arrowhead Towne Centre in Glendale, AZ recently opened the newest family fun entertainment center with both a ROUND1 Bowling & Arcade as well as a Spo-Cha. Taking over an erstwhile Mervyn’s, the former includes eight bowling lanes, a variety of favorite games like a claw machine, and two party/karaoke rooms. Upstairs is Spo-Cha, short for Sports Challenge, which is an indoor sports complex where one pays a flat fee for 90 minutes to access activities like riding a mechanical bull, batting cages, a trampoline park, basketball, different sport courts, and billiards.
Spo-Cha is currently in five mall locations in the United States, with plans for more. Overall foot traffic at the malls where it’s currently operational has been positive year-over-year for the month of March.
In addition to the mechanical bull, there is also a Kids Spo-Cha climbing gym and obstacle course.
Source: Spo-Cha
Source: Spo-Cha
At an overall chain level, Round1 Entertainment tends to attract Near Urban Diverse Families and Wealthy Suburban Families the most.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Professional sports are big business – the industry is valued at nearly $1 billion in the United States alone. And beyond the economic impact of actual ticket sales and stadium and sponsorship gains, major sporting events can have significant impacts on local industries such as tourism, dining, and hospitality. Cities hosting sports events tend to see influxes of visitors who boost tourism, spend money at restaurants and hotels, and create ripple effects that benefit entire local economies.
The 2024 Copa América, typically held in South America but hosted in the United States this year, provides a prime example of the effect sports tourism can have on local economies. The games kicked off in Atlanta, Georgia on June 20th, 2024, before moving on to other host cities and boosting hospitality traffic along the way.
This white paper dives into the data to see how the games impacted hotel visits in cities across America – and especially in Atlanta. The report uncovers the hotel tiers and brands that saw the largest visit boosts and explores visitor demographics to better understand the audiences drawn to the event.
The Copa América took place in June and July 2024, with fourteen cities – mainly across the Sunbelt – hosting games. Thousands of fans attended each event, driving up demand in local hotel markets.
Arlington, TX, saw the largest hotel visit bump during the week it hosted the games, with hospitality traffic up 23.0% compared to the metro area's weekly January to September 2024 visit average. Orlando, FL, too, enjoyed a significant visit spike (22.1%), followed by Kansas City, KS-MO (17.4%).
The Atlanta metropolitan area, for its part, also saw a significant 11.0% increase in hotel visits during its hosting week compared to the city’s weekly visit average.
The Copa América games attracted fans from across the country – from as far away as Washington State and New Hampshire, as well as from neighboring states like Florida. On the day the tournament began, 26.1% of the domestic visitors to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium came from over 250 miles away, up from an average of 19.7% during the rest of the year (January to September 2024). These out-of-towners likely had a significant impact on Atlanta’s local economy – through spending on accommodations, dining, and entertainment.
During the week of the Copa América game, all of the analyzed hotel types in Atlanta received a visit bump. And while some of these visits were likely unrelated to the game, the massive scale of the event means that a significant share of the visit growth was likely driven by out-of-town soccer fans. Analyzing these patterns Atlanta can provide valuable insights for hospitality stakeholders looking to attract attendees of major sporting events.
Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest boost during the week of the event, with visits 20.8% higher than the weekly visit average between January and September 2024. Midscale and Upscale hotels also experienced significant visit increases of 15.8% and 14.0%, respectively. During the same period, visits to Luxury hotels grew by 9.0% and Economy Hotel visits rose by 7.0% compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average. Meanwhile Upper Upscale Hotels received the smallest boost, with visits up by 2.9%.
Judging by these travel patterns, it appears that most Copa América spectators prefer to stay at Midscale, Upper Midscale, or Upscale hotels during the trip.
While Upper Midscale Hotels in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta metro area generally experienced the biggest visit boost during the Copa América, visit performance varied somewhat from chain to chain. TownePlace Suites and Fairfield Inn, both Upper Midscale Marriott properties, saw increases of 27.5% and 25.3%, respectively, compared to their January to September 2024 weekly averages. Other chains in the tier also enjoyed visit boosts – visits to Home2 Suites by Hilton and Hampton Inn – both Hilton chains – jumped by 17.3% and 17.4%, respectively, during the same period.
The popularity of these Upper Midscale hotels may be driven by a multitude of factors. Some, like TownePlace Suites and Home2 Suites offer kitchenettes, something that may appeal to visitors looking to save by preparing their own meals. Others, such as Fairfield Inn and Hampton Inn which offer more locations closer to the stadium may attract visitors that prioritize convenience.
Layering the STI: PopStats dataset onto Placer.ai’s captured market can provide insights into Copa América attendees by revealing the demographic attributes of census block groups (CBGs) contributing visitors to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The CBGs feeding visitors to a chain or venue, weighted to reflect the share of visitors from each one, are collectively referred to as the business’ captured market.)
During the Copa América opener,Mercedes-Benz Stadium drew visitors from CBGs with a median household income (HHI) of $90.0K – well above the national median of $76.1K and similar to the median HHI during the Taylor Swift concert ($90.6K). The stadium’s trade area median HHI was even higher during the Super Bowl ($117.9K).
This visitor profile suggests that Copa América attendees – along with guests of other major cultural and sporting events – often have the means to splurge on comfortable, mid-range hotels for their stays. As Atlanta gears up to host the College Football National Championship in January 2025, the 62nd Super Bowl in February 2028, and the MLB All Star Game in July 2025, along with a host of smaller-scale events – the city can draw on historical data from past events, including the Copa América, to better understand the needs and preferences of stadium visitors and plan accordingly.
And although Upper Upscale hotels generally experienced relatively subdued growth during the Atlanta Copa América opener, some Upper Upscale properties – including Marriott’s Autograph Collection Twelve Downtown, saw visits jump. Visits to the hotel were up 19.7% during the week of the Copa América compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average.
The Twelve Downtown has become a popular lodging choice for major events in the city, likely due to its proximity to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The hotel is located just over a mile away from the stadium). During the Super Bowl LIII five years ago, the Twelve Downtown drew 27.9% more visits than its weekly average for January to September 2019. And during the 2023 Taylor Swift concert, the hotel saw a 25.5% visit bump.
A closer look at the median HHI of the hotel’s captured market during the three periods reveals that, despite each event attracting visitors from varying income brackets, the median HHI of visitors to the Twelve Downtown remained stable. Visitors to the hotel between January and September 2024 came from trade areas where the median HHI was $76.2K, not far off from the median HHI during the 2019 Super Bowl ($75.4K), Taylor Swift’s 2023 concert ($80.6K) and the Copa América ($76.7K).
This stability suggests that, regardless of the event, hotels attract a specific visitor base. And understanding the similarities within the demographic profiles of likely hotel visitors during different events will be key for hotels at all levels seeking to capitalize on the economic opportunities created by major local events.
The Mountain region offers employment opportunities, affordable housing, outdoors recreation, and a relatively low cost of living – which could explain why these states are emerging as major domestic migration hubs. Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming in particular have consistently attracted inbound domestic migration in recent years, as Americans continue leaving higher density regions in search of greener – and calmer – pastures.
This report uses various datasets from the Placer.ai Migration Trends Report to analyze domestic migration to Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming. Where are people coming from? And how is recent migration impacting local population centers in these states? Keep reading to find out.
Idaho emerged as a domestic migration hotspot over the pandemic, as many Americans freed from the obligation of in-person work relocated to the Gem State. Between June 2020 and June 2024, Idaho saw positive net migration of 4.7%, more than any other state in the U.S. (This metric measures the number of people moving to a state minus the number of people leaving – expressed as a percentage of the state’s total population.) And between 2023 and 2024, Idaho remained the nation’s top domestic migration performer (see map above).
Diving into the data reveals that though people moved to Idaho from across the U.S., most of Idaho’s influx over the past four years came from neighboring West Coast and Mountain States – especially California. Former residents of the Golden State accounted for a whopping 58.1% of inbound migrants to Idaho over the analyzed period.
California’s position as the top feeder of relocators to Idaho during the analyzed period may come as no surprise, given the state’s recent population outflow and the many former California residents who have settled in the Mountain region. But Washington, Oregon, and Nevada – where inbound and outbound migration remained relatively even in recent years – have also been seeing shifts to Idaho.
Idaho has a lower tax burden, robust employment opportunities, and greater overall affordability than its top four feeder states. So some of the recent relocators likely moved to the Gem State to enjoy better economic opportunities while staying relatively close to their states of origin. And these recent Idahoans may be reshaping Idaho’s demographic and economic landscape in the process.
Most inbound migration to Idaho is concentrated in the state’s metro areas, with Boise – the capital of Idaho and the major city closest to California – consistently absorbing the highest share of net inbound migration.
But recently, other CBSAs have emerged as key destinations for new Idahoans. The location of two emerging domestic relocation hubs in particular suggests that many new Idaho residents may be looking to stay close to their areas of origin: Coeur d’Alene, located near the border with Washington, attracts its largest contingent of new residents from the Spokane, WA metro area, while Twin Falls’ top feeder area is the Elko CBSA in northern Nevada.
Twin Falls in southern Idaho has a strong job market – and has received a substantial share of inbound domestic migration over the past three years. Coeur d’Alene is also flush with economic opportunities, and after declining steadily for several years, the share of relocators heading to the metro area increased to 20.7% between June 2023 and 2024.
The chart above also reveals that the share of inbound migration heading to Boise declined slightly between June 2023 and June 2024 – following a period of consistent growth between June 2020 and June 2023 – even as the share of migration to Coeur d’Alene ballooned. This may mean that, although the state’s largest metro area may have reached its saturation point, other areas in the state are still primed to receive inbound migration.
While Nevada is losing some of its population to nearby Idaho, the Silver State is also gaining new residents of its own: Between September 2020 and September 2024, the Silver State experienced positive net migration of 3.3%. And the data indicates that many new Nevadans are choosing to settle in the state's rapidly growing suburban centers.
Zooming into the Las Vegas-Henderson CBSA reveals that much of the growth is concentrated outside the main city of Las Vegas. Instead, the more suburban cities of Enterprise, Henderson, and North Las Vegas received the largest migration bump – with Henderson and North Las Vegas’ population now surpassing that of Reno. And while year-over-year migration trends suggest that the growth is beginning to stabilize, Enterprise and Henderson are still growing significantly faster than the CBSA as a whole – indicating that the suburbs continue to draw Nevada newcomers.
Analyzing the inbound domestic migration to Enterprise – one of the fastest growing areas in the country – may shed light on the aspects of suburban Las Vegas that are driving population growth.
Many new Enterprise residents moved to the city from elsewhere in Nevada, while most out-of-state newcomers came from California or Hawaii – mirroring the migration patterns for Nevada as a whole. And according to the Niche Neighborhood Grades dataset, Enterprise is a good fit for retirees and young professionals alike, with the city ranking higher than its feeder areas with regard to a range of factors – from jobs and commute to weather.
Like with migration to the rest of the Mountain region, domestic migration to Nevada – particularly to suburban areas like Enterprise and Henderson – is likely driven by newcomers looking for more economic opportunities along with higher quality of life.
Wyoming – currently the least populous state in the country – is another Mountain region state where inbound migration is driving up the population numbers. But in the Cowboy State, urban areas – as opposed to suburban ones – seem to be the main magnets for population growth.
The Cheyenne, Wyoming CBSA – home to Wyoming’s capital – is the largest metro area in the state. And analyzing the CBSA’s population trends over the past six years reveals a recent shift in Wyoming’s inbound migration patterns.
Cheyenne’s population is mostly suburban, and the CBSA’s suburban areas remain popular with newcomers – suburban Cheyenne has also seen steady population growth since January 2018. But when the CBSA became a popular relocation destination over the pandemic, many newcomers to the Cheyenne region chose to move to metro area’s more rural areas: By April 2022, Cheyenne’s rural population had jumped by 10.8% compared to a January 2018 baseline, compared to a 5.9% and 3.9% increase in the CBSA’s suburban and urban populations, respectively.
As the country opened back up, however, the number of rural Cheyenne residents dropped back down – and by September 2024, Cheyenne’s rural population was only 0.1% bigger than it had been in January 2018. The population growth in suburban Cheyenne also slowed down, with the September 2024 suburban population numbers more or less on par with the April 2022 figures.
Now, Cheyenne’s urban areas have overtaken both rural and suburban areas in terms of population growth: In September 2024, Cheyenne’s urban population was 9.4% bigger than in January 2018, compared to 5.2% and 0.1% growth for the suburban and urban areas, respectively.
Despite the growth in Cheyenne’s urban population, the suburbs still remain the most populous – as of September 2024, 71.2% of the CBSA’s population resided in suburban areas. But the continued growth of Cheyenne’s urban population may reflect a rising demand among Wyomingites for amenities and economic opportunities unavailable elsewhere in the state, mirroring the trend in Idaho’s urban CBSAs such as Boise and Coeur d'Alene.
Cheyenne’s urban growth could be partially due to shifts in migration patterns. At the height of the pandemic, most newcomers to Cheyenne were coming from out of state, perhaps drawn by the quiet and spaciousness of rural Wyoming. But since 2022, the share of migration to Cheyenne from within Wyoming has grown – coinciding with the population increase in its urban areas and suggesting that Cheyenne's amenities are attracting more residents statewide.
This growing intra-state migration to Cheyenne’s urban areas underscores the city’s evolving role as a hub within Wyoming, appealing not just to newcomers from outside the state but increasingly to Wyoming residents seeking the benefits of a more urban lifestyle relative to the rest of the state.
The Mountain States are solidifying their status as key migration hubs in the U.S., driven by economic opportunities, affordable living, and lifestyle appeal. Between September 2023 and September 2024, Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming all experienced significant population growth due to inbound domestic migration. In Idaho, newcomers from neighboring states are boosting the population of the Gem State’s major metro areas. Meanwhile the Cheyenne, Wyoming, CBSA is emerging as a focal point for intra-state migration, with urban Cheyenne seeing particularly pronounced growth. And in Nevada, suburban hubs like Henderson and Enterprise are welcoming new arrivals seeking a balance of suburban comfort and economic potential. With the cost of living continuing to increase – and the Mountain region offering something for everyone through its various states – Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming are likely to remain top migration destinations in 2025 and beyond.
2024 has been another challenging year for retailers. Still-high prices and an uncertain economic climate led many shoppers to trade down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences. Value took center stage, as cautious consumers sought to stretch their dollars as far as possible.
But price wasn’t the only factor driving consumer behavior in 2024. This past year saw the rise of a variety of retail and dining trends, some seemingly at odds with one another. Shoppers curbed discretionary spending, but made room in their budgets for “essential non-essentials” like gym memberships and other wellness offerings. Consumers placed a high premium on speed and convenience, while at the same time demonstrating a willingness to go out of their way for quality or value finds. And even amidst concern about the economy, shoppers were ready to pony up for specialty items, legacy brands, and fun experiences – as long as they didn’t break the bank.
How did these currents – likely to continue shaping the retail landscape into 2025 – impact leading brands and categories? We dove into the data to find out.
Bifurcation has emerged as a foundational principle in retail over the past few years: Consumers are increasingly gravitating toward either luxury or value offerings and away from the ‘middle.’ Add extended economic uncertainty along with rapid expansions and product diversification from top value-oriented retailers, and you have an explosion of visits in the value lane.
But we are seeing a ceiling to that growth – especially in the discount & dollar store space. Throughout 2023 and the first part of 2024, visits to discount & dollar stores increased steadily. But no category can sustain uninterrupted visit growth forever. Since April 2024, year–over-year (YoY) foot traffic to the segment has begun to slow, with September 2024 showing just a modest 0.8% YoY visit increase.
Discount & dollar stores, which attract lower-income shoppers compared to both grocery stores and superstores, have also begun lagging behind these segments in visit-per-location growth. In Q3, the average number of visits to each discount and dollar store location remained essentially flat compared to 2023 (+0.2%), while visits per location to superstores and grocery stores grew by 2.8% and 1.0%, respectively. As 2024 draws to a close, it is the latter segments, which appeal to shoppers with incomes closer to the nationwide median of $76.1K, which are seeing better YoY performance.
The deceleration doesn’t mean that discount retailers are facing existential risk – discount & dollar stores are still extremely strong and well-positioned with focused offerings that resonate with consumers. The visitation data does suggest, however, that future growth may need to focus on initiatives other large-scale fleet expansions. Some of these efforts will involve moving upmarket (see pOpShelf), some will focus on fleet optimization, and others may include new offerings and channels.
Return of the middle anyone?
Still, in an environment where consumers have been facing the compounded effects of rising prices, value remains paramount for many shoppers. And brands that have found ways to let customers have their cake and eat it too – enjoy specialty offerings and elevated experiences without breaking the bank – have emerged as major visit winners this year.
Trader Joe’s, in particular, has stood out as one of the leading retail brands for innovative value in 2024, a trend that is expected to continue into 2025.
Trader Joe’s dedicated fan base is positively addicted to the chain’s broad range of high-quality specialty items. But by maintaining a much higher private label mix than most grocers – approximately 80%, compared to an industry average of 25% to 30% – the retailer is also able to keep its pricing competitive. Trader Joe’s cultivates consumer excitement by constantly innovating its product line – there are even websites dedicated to showcasing the chain’s new offerings each season. In turn, Trader Joe’s enjoys much higher visits per square foot than the rest of the grocery category: Over the past twelve months, Trader Joe’s drew a median 56 visits per square foot – compared to 23 for H-E-B, the second-strongest performer.
Casual dining chain Chili’s has also been a standout on the disruptive value front this past year – offering consumers a full-service dining experience at a quick-service price point.
Chili’s launched its Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, adding the item to its popular ‘3 for Me’ offering, which includes an appetizer, entrée, and drink for just $10.99 – lower than than the average ticket at many quick-service restaurant chains. The innovative promotion, which has been further expanded since, continues to drive impressive visitation trends. With food-away-from-home inflation continuing to decelerate, this strategy of offering deep discounts is likely to continue to be a key story in 2025.
Convenience is king, right?
Well, probably not. If convenience truly were king, visitors would orient themselves to making fewer, longer visits to retailers – to minimize the inconvenience of frequent grocery trips and spend less time on the road. But analyzing the data suggests that, while consumers may want to save time, it is not always their chief concern.
Looking at the superstore and grocery segments (among others) reveals that the proportion of visitors spending under 30 minutes at the grocery store is actually increasing – from 73.3% in Q3 2019 to 76.6% in Q3 2024. This indicates that shoppers are increasingly willing to make shorter trips to the store to pick up just a few items.
At the same time, more consumers than ever are willing to travel farther to visit specialty grocery chains in the search of specific products that make the visit worthwhile.
Cross visitation between chains is also increasing – suggesting that shoppers are willing to make multiple trips to find the products they want – at the right price point. Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, the share of traditional grocery store visitors who also visited a Costco at least three times during the quarter grew across chains.
Does this mean convenience doesn’t matter? Of course not. Does it indicate that value, quality and a love of specific products are becoming just as, if not more, important to shoppers? Yes.
The implications here are very significant. If consumers are willing to go out of their way for the right products at the right price points – even at the expense of convenience – then the retailers able to leverage these ‘visit drivers’ will be best positioned to grow their reach considerably. The willingness of consumers to forego convenience considerations when the incentives are right also reinforces the ever-growing importance of the in-store experience.
So while convenience may still be within the royal family, the role of king is up for grabs.
Convenience may not be everything, but the drive for quicker service has emerged as more important than ever in the restaurant space. Diners want their fast food… well, as fast as possible. And to meet this demand, quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and fast-casual chains have been integrating more technology into their operations. Chipotle has been a leader in this regard, unveiling the “Autocado” robot at a Huntington Beach, California location last month. The robot can peel, pit, and chop avocados in record time, a major benefit for the Tex-Mex chain.
And the Autocado seems to be paying off. The Huntington Beach location drew 10.0% more visits compared to the average Chipotle location in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro area in Q3 2024. Visitors are visiting more frequently and getting their food more quickly – 43.9% of visits at this location lasted 10 minutes or less, compared to 37.5% at other stores in the CBSA.
Are diners flocking to this Chipotle location to watch the future of avocado chopping in action, or are they enticed by shorter wait times? Time will tell. But with workers able to focus on other aspects of food preparation and customer service, the innovation appears to be resonating with diners.
McDonald’s, too, has leaned into new technologies to streamline its service. The chain debuted its first (almost) fully automated, takeaway-only restaurant in White Settlement, TX in 2022 – where orders are placed at kiosks or on app, and then delivered to customers by robots. (The food is still prepared by humans.) Unsurprisingly, the restaurant drives faster visits than other local McDonald’s locations – in Q3 2023, 79.7% of visits to the chain lasted less than 10 minutes, compared to 68.5% for other McDonald’s in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA. But crucially, the automated location is also busier than other area McDonald’s, garnering 16.8% more visits in Q3 than the chain’s CBSA-wide average. And the location draws a higher share of late-night visits than other area McDonald’s – customers on the hunt for a late-night snack might be drawn to a restaurant that offers quick, interaction-free service.
Changing store formats is another key trend shaping retail in 2024. Whether by reducing box sizes to cut costs, make stores more accessible, or serve smaller growth markets – or by going big with one-stop shops, retailers are reimagining store design. And the moves are resonating with consumers, driving visits while at the same improving efficiency.
Macy’s, Inc. is one retailer that is leading the small-format charge this year. In February 2024, Macy’s announced its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround plan including the downsizing of its traditional eponymous department store fleet and a pivot towards smaller-format Macy’s locations. Macy’s has also continued to expand its highly-curated, small-format Bloomie’s concept, which features a mix of established and trendy pop-up brands tailored to local preferences.
And the data shows that this shift towards small format may be helping Macy’s drive visits with more accessible and targeted offerings that consumers can enjoy as they go about their daily routines: In Q3 2024, Macy’s small-format stores drew a higher share of weekday visitors and of local customers (i.e. those coming from less than seven miles away) than Macy’s traditional stores.
Small-format stores are also making inroads in the home improvement category. The past few years have seen consumers across the U.S. migrating to smaller suburban and rural markets – and retailers like Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware are harnessing their small-format advantage to accommodate these customers while keeping costs low.
Harbor Freight tools and Ace Hardware’s trade areas have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S., many of which have populations under 200K. And while it can be difficult to justify opening a Home Depot or Lowe’s in these hubs – both chains average more than 100,000 square feet per store – Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware’s smaller boxes, generally under 20,000 square feet, are a perfect fit.
This has allowed both chains to tap into the smaller markets which are attracting growing shares of the population. And so while Home Depot and Lowe’s have seen moderate visits declines on a YoY basis, Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware have seen consistent YoY visit boosts since Q1 2024 – outperforming the wider category since early 2023.
Are smaller stores a better bet across the board? At the end of the day, the success of smaller-format stores depends largely on the category. For retail segments that have seen visit trends slow since the pandemic – home furnishings and consumer electronics, for example – smaller-format stores offer brands a more economical way to serve their customers. Retailers have also used smaller-format stores to better curate their merchandise assortments for their most loyal customers, helping to drive improved visit frequency.
That said, a handful of retailers, such as Hy-Vee, have recently bucked the trend of smaller-format stores. These large-format stores are often designed as destination locations – Hy-Vee’s larger-format locations usually offer a full suite of amenities beyond groceries, such as a food hall, eyewear kiosk, beauty department, and candy shop. Rather than focusing on smaller markets, these stores aim to attract visitors from surrounding areas.
Visit data for Hy-Vee’s large-format store in Gretna, Nebraska indicates that this location sees a higher percentage of weekend visits than other area locations – 37.7% compared to 33.1% for the chain’s Omaha CBSA average – as well as more visits lasting over 30 minutes (32.9% compared to 21.9% for the metro area as a whole). For these shoppers, large-format, one-stop shops offer a convenient – and perhaps more exciting – alternative to traditionally sized grocery stores. The success of the large-format stores is another sign that though convenience isn’t everything in 2024, it certainly resonates – especially when paired with added-value offerings.
Many retail brands have entrenched themselves in American culture and become an extension of consumers' identities. And while some of these previously ubiquitous brands have disappeared over the years as the retail industry evolved, others have transformed to keep pace with changing consumer needs – and some have even come back from the brink of extinction. And the quest for value notwithstanding, 2024 has also seen the resurgence of many of these (decidedly non-off-price) legacy brands.
In apparel specifically, Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch – two brands that dominated the cultural zeitgeist of the 1990s and early 2000s before seeing their popularity decline somewhat in the late aughts and 2010s – may be staging a comeback. Bed Bath & Beyond, a leader in the home goods category, is also making a play at returning to physical retail through partnerships.
Anthropologie, another legacy player in women’s fashion and home goods, is also on the rise. Anthropologie’s distinctive aesthetic resonates deeply with consumers – especially women millennials aged 30 to 45. And by capturing the hearts of its customers, the retailer stands as a beacon for retailers that can hedge against promotional activity and still drive foot traffic growth.
And visits to the chain have been rising steadily. In Q4 2023, the chain experienced a bigger holiday season foot traffic spike than pre-pandemic, drawing more overall visits than in Q4 2019. And in Q3 2024, visits were higher than in Q3 2023.
And speaking of the 35 to 40 set – the generation that all retailers are courting? Millennials. Does that sound familiar? Yes, because this is the same generational cohort that retailers tried to target a decade ago. As millennials have aged into the family-formation stage of life, their retail needs have evolved, and the industry is now primed to meet them.
From the revival of nostalgic brands like the Limited Too launch at Kohl’s to warehouse clubs expanding memberships to younger consumers as they move to suburban and rural communities, there are myriad examples of retailers reaching out to this cohort. And Sam’s Club offers a prime example of this trend.
Over the past few years, millennials and Gen-Zers have emerged as major drivers of membership growth at Sam’s Club, drawn to the retailer’s value offerings and digital upgrades – like the club’s Scan & Go technology. Over the same period, Sam’s Club has grown the share of “Singles and Starters” households in its captured market from 6% above the national benchmark in Q3 2019 to 15% in Q3 2024. And with plans to involve customers in co-creating products for its private-label brand, Sam’s Club may continue to grow its market share among this value-conscious – but also discerning and optimistic – demographic.
Millennials are also now old enough to wax nostalgic about their youth – and brands are paying attention. This summer, Taco Bell leaned into nostalgia with a promotion bringing back iconic menu items from the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s – all priced under $3. The promotion, which soft-launched at three Southern California locations in August, was so successful that the company is now offering the specials nationwide. The three locations that trialed the “Decades Menu” saw significant boosts in visits during the promotional period compared to their daily averages for August. And people came from far and wide to sample the offerings – with a higher proportion of visitors traveling over seven miles to reach the stores while the items were available.
Hot on the heels of a tumultuous 2023, 2024’s retail environment has certainly kept retailers on their toes. While embracing innovative value has helped some chains thrive, other previously ascendant value segments, including discount & dollar stores, may have reached their growth ceilings. Consumers clearly care about convenience – but are willing to make multiple grocery stops to find what they need. At the same time, legacy brands are plotting their comeback, while others are harnessing the power of nostalgia to drive millennials – and other consumers – through their doors.
