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Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty, year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic trends to brick and mortar retail chains has been generally positive all year, with only three out of the first fourteen weeks of the year posting visit declines.
During Easter week, visits rose 5.7% compared to the week of March 31 to April 4, 2025 – the second biggest YoY increase of the year so far, following Valentine's Day week. And while some of this lift likely reflects calendar shifts, as Easter fell later in April in 2025, it also underscores consumers’ continued willingness to shop – especially for special occasions – despite broader headwinds.
Indeed, AI-powered location intelligence also shows a 1.9% increase in traffic compared to Easter Week 2025, and a 7.4% lift compared to the year-to-date weekly retail traffic average – highlighting current consumer resilience.
Easter generated increases in retail foot traffic across most of the country, but the strongest lift was in the Southeast, as can be seen on the map below. The region’s outsized performance likely reflects a combination of factors, including stronger cultural emphasis on Easter-related gatherings and traditions, favorable spring weather that supports in-store shopping, and a higher reliance on brick-and-mortar retail formats.
Retail traffic data for Easter Week 2026 suggests that retail traffic in 2026 is being supported by stable underlying demand, with holidays like Easter acting as accelerators rather than compensating for weakness. At the same time, the Southeast’s outperformance reinforces the need for regionally tailored strategies, as the ability to convert seasonal demand into store visits varies significantly across markets.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Q1 2026 is in the books and there were some key elements that popped when we looked at the data.
While we’re all about location data, few things get us as excited as the glorious combination of behavioral location analytics with sentiment data. So, we ran a poll of retail industry professionals with our friends at ShopTalk, and the results were fascinating. But two answers really stood out.
First, only 30% of respondents felt that ‘inspiration’ was a key element of the store experience. This was shockingly low considering how powerful the ‘discover mode’ aspect of the shopper journey can be. It also speaks to the massive potential in better maximizing this component to drive product engagement, sales and retail media opportunities.
Second, while 44% of respondents expected Agentic AI to boost digital commerce and 22% expected to simply fragment digital’s current share, 34% felt it would be a tide that lifted all boats. This is hugely positive in that it indicates a growing recognition that the benefit of digitally native innovations is not limited to the digital environment.
In January, all mall formats in the Placer.ai Mall Index saw a boost. A nice start for malls, but maybe just a fluke?
The February data came in and showed that all mall formats once again saw a boost. This gives more evidence to the going hypothesis that top tier malls are in the midst of a significant and ongoing renaissance. While this clearly has huge ramifications for site selection and placemaking at these centers, it also speaks to an ongoing potential for a significant swath of lower tier malls to drive their own revolutions with a greater focus on driving complementary offerings and local audiences.
I’m hardly unbiased when it comes to Target, but since the week beginning January 26th through the week beginning March 23rd – the retailer has seen nothing but visit growth, with visits averaging a 7.8% year over year lift during that period.
Does this mean that every problem is solved? No. But it does show that while there were clearly challenges faced in recent years, there is a unique potential for Target because of their market positioning and brand. We called them out as one of the clear candidates for a major recovery in 2026 and they are showing early signs that validate that call.
In September of 2024 Costco raised the cost of membership. Did this deter potential members and limit visits? Nope.
Instead, Costco has seen continued growth and an expansion of its audience with new groups becoming a bigger part of its overall mix. The result is the latest sign that Costco’s growth could actually have many more levels to hit with just the expansion of its audience.
In a guest post for The Anchor dunnhumby’s Erich Kahner broke down the grocery segment and powerful positioning that two groups had. Savings-First grocers like Aldi or Lidl were well positioned to grab visits with a clear value offering that emphasized price, an especially powerful tool in a period of seemingly endless economic volatility. On the other hand, Quality-First grocers like Sprouts were leading with an emphasis, not on price, but on exceptional product quality. And while these two concepts may seem like obvious draws for consumers, the ability to so effectively center an offering around a core promise gives these brands a unique market position and the ability to effectively deliver on and prioritize this position.
But there is a third group – the unicorns. In this case, Kahner focused on brands like Trader Joe’s and H-E-B and their ability to leverage authenticity, ideal product mix and a powerful understanding of their audience to deliver an exceptional and targeted experience. And this is critical because it represents the latest example that the antidote to bifurcation – the push to exceptional quality and exceptional value across categories – is authenticity. The ability to create an experience and product offering that stands out and truly resonates for a core audience.
Yes, there are continued improvements in office visitation led largely by more dramatic year over year lifts in areas that took longer to recover like San Francisco. However, there is an overall sense that the current state of affairs in office is generally stable. And this is great for office real estate.
Hybrid work has absolutely changed behavior, but it didn’t stop professionals from coming to the office – or many businesses from demanding this return. But there are clear indications of what drives more office visits. Proximity, industry, and family status all present clear signals of how often an audience will visit the office during a specific period. The positive here is that it shows a clear rationale for why people don’t visit, and it is not because they don’t value the office.
The takeaway? Expect an office-centric version of hybrid work to continue setting the overall pace.
For more data-driven retail & CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Club Pilates’ journey since its acquisition by Xponential Fitness represents a rare and large-scale success in the boutique fitness space. Since 2019, the chain has increased its monthly visits by over 200%, largely by expanding aggressively and saturating existing markets.
But same-store data suggests that the brand, having built a dense and expansive studio footprint, may be hitting its first ceiling, and expansion alone may not be enough to sustain the momentum of the past couple of years. Instead, the chain will likely need to combine new location openings with unlocking the latent value within its existing network of 1,400+ studios – growing membership, driving more engagement, improving utilization, and deepening customer relationships.
To that end, Xponential is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy aimed at boosting unit-level economics, including improving member acquisition and investing in digital upgrades to enhance conversion and retention. The company is also testing pricing and packaging strategies alongside studio refreshes and new class formats to increase engagement and utilization with the goal of improving profitability across the existing studio base.
But even as Xponential Fitness works to improve performance at existing locations, expansion – which has been Club Pilates’ primary growth engine to date – will remain an important part of the strategy, with the company aiming to open locations in both "new and existing geographies."
AI-powered location analytics reveal that most Club Pilates visits come from local clients, a trend which has remained remarkably consistent throughout the chain's aggressive expansion. In 2025, around 70% of visits came from patrons travelling less than five miles to reach the studio and more than 85% originated within a 10-mile radius – underscoring the highly local nature of the business.
Because most customers come from nearby, opening additional studios allows the brand to reach new local audiences rather than relying on a single location to cover an entire market. When spaced appropriately, this can grow total demand with limited overlap, while marketing across the market helps reduce the cost of acquiring each new member. As a result, even if same-store visits begin to level off, the brand can continue to grow by expanding its footprint – capturing new pockets of local demand that existing studios do not fully serve.
As Club Pilates enters its next phase, growth will depend both on opening new studios and on optimizing its existing network – improving utilization, deepening engagement, and refining pricing. With strong local density and a loyal, routine-driven customer base, the brand is well positioned to increase member lifetime value through digital enhancements and more personalized experiences. If executed well, this shift from pure expansion to expansion and optimization could elevate Club Pilates from a fast-growing chain to a true fitness super-brand.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Traffic to malls increased in Q1 2026 across all three formats analyzed – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls – largely thanks to strong performances in the first two months of the year.
But March 2026 visits were more subdued, with indoor malls seeing a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline of 1.1% and outlet malls experiencing a steeper drop of 4.1% compared to March 2025. Open-air shopping centers were the only format to maintain growth, though their 3.2% YoY visit increase – though solid – was still more modest than the stronger gains seen by the format in January and February.
So what happened in March? Why did open-air shopping centers fare better than their peers? And how can malls return to growth across formats going into Q2?
Some of the dip may be due to calendar differences – March 2026 had one less Saturday than March 2025 – and since Saturdays are typically malls' busiest day, the shift likely impacted overall visits for the month.
But a closer look at daypart trends can shed additional light on both the strength earlier in the quarter and the slowdown in March. In Q1 overall, growth was concentrated at the edges of the day: traffic before 11 AM and after 8 PM saw the strongest gains, with additional support from the early evening (5 PM–8 PM). In contrast, midday traffic – the largest share of visits – was relatively flat for open-air centers and slightly negative for indoor and outlet malls. Still, robust edge growth was sufficient to offset this softness and drive overall quarterly gains.
But in March, growth in morning and evening hours slowed – particularly for indoor and outlet malls – while midday declines became more pronounced. This meant that the off-peak gains were no longer sufficient to offset weakness in the core of the day – leading to the YoY traffic declines for indoor and outlet malls.
But even as traffic to indoor and outlet malls declined, open-air shopping centers maintained growth momentum due to two key advantages. First, the format maintained most of its morning and evening gains, and its midday traffic trends ease from growth to stability rather than from stability to decline like for indoor and outlet malls – so the growth at the edges was still enough to offset the flat visits midday. Second, open-air centers are less dependent on midday visits, with around 77% of visits to open-air shopping centers occurring between 11 AM and 8 PM, compared to 83% to 84% for indoor and outlet malls. This means that open-air shopping centers are more resilient to dips in midday visits than the other two formats.
The softness seen in March at indoor and outlet malls does not negate the strong start to 2026, which drove overall YoY visit growth in Q1. However, it does highlight what will be required to sustain that momentum going forward.
The data points to two paths to more durable growth: reigniting demand during peak midday hours through programming, tenant mix, and convenience-driven visits or reducing reliance on that window by expanding traffic in the morning and evening. Open-air shopping centers provide a model for the latter, with a more balanced daypart mix – likely driven by their dining, entertainment, and extended-hour experiences – that has helped cushion midday softness. For indoor and outlet malls, long-term stability will likely depend on a combination of both – strengthening midday performance while also building consistent off-peak demand.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Lands’ End is entering a new chapter. The recently announced joint venture with WHP Global signals a strategic shift for the heritage apparel brand – one that could expand its reach through licensing, brand partnerships, and new distribution channels.
Under the agreement, WHP assumes control of Lands’ End’s licensing business, while the brand retains its retail operations. And while Lands’ End has long been associated with its catalog and e-commerce dominance, AI-powered location analytics suggest that its physical store fleet maintains an important role.
As an apparel brand with a history of catalogue retail, Lands’ End continues to generate the majority of its sales online. Yet its physical stores remain a critical component of the business – and an increasingly bright spot.
Lands’ End outpaced the broader apparel category in year-over-year visit growth in three of the past four quarters, with the only decline in Q1 2026 likely tied to store closures as part of ongoing optimization. At the same time, visits per location have remained consistently positive and above category benchmarks, highlighting the strength of the remaining fleet. This suggests that brick-and-mortar continues to be an effective driver of growth as the brand moves into its next phase.
Further evidence of the fleet’s strength – and its long-term potential – can be seen in the audience it attracts.
AI-powered audience segmentation indicates that in 2025, the brand captured an outsized share of visits from Ultra Wealthy Families, as well as from singles – the combined one-person and non-family households – segments, relative to the traditional apparel category.
The significant share of affluent families points to a customer base with both spending power and relative insulation from macroeconomic pressure. Meanwhile, strength among singles – a cohort that skews younger and includes a meaningful share of Gen Z consumers – highlights traction with a target demographic critical to long-term relevance.
The prevalence of both these audiences in Land's End's trade area suggests a dual advantage. Strong engagement from affluent households may help support near-term stability, while resonance with younger shoppers could indicate a developing pipeline for sustained growth in the years ahead.
The performance of Lands’ End’s store fleet, coupled with the composition of its audience, suggests a brand with momentum in physical retail – a notable advantage as it retains control of that side of the business. A productive fleet and a resilient, evolving customer base provide stability today, and could offer a strong foundation for broader brand expansion in the years ahead.
How will Lands’ End leverage this momentum as it enters its next phase? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Lane Bryant faced significant challenges during the pandemic and has continued to gradually shrink its store fleet in the years since. And now, with nearly one in eight U.S. consumers using GLP-1 medications, plus-size apparel demand is beginning to shift in meaningful ways – introducing a new layer of complexity for the legacy retailer.
How is Lane Bryant navigating these challenges, and what does its customer base reveal about its ability to adapt?
In July 2020, Lane Bryant’s parent company filed for bankruptcy and closed more than 150 stores. But following its acquisition later that year by Sycamore Partners, the brand began to regain its footing – and recent location analytics suggest those stabilization efforts are taking hold.
While the reduced footprint has, unsurprisingly, led to lower overall traffic, average annual visits per location remain above 2019 levels, suggesting that demand has been successfully consolidated into existing locations. Average visits per location also held steady between 2024 and 2025, even as the company continued to quietly trim its unit count. The result is a smaller but more productive fleet, with steady activity supported by fewer, better-aligned stores.
Still, as Lane Bryant continues to stabilize, the question becomes how it can further increase store-level productivity. And analyzing the demographic profile of its trade areas offers insight into both its core strengths and where the next phase of optimization may emerge.
One of the brand’s clearest advantages is Lane Bryant’s strong reach among family-oriented segments, which are overrepresented in its captured market – the areas within its trade area generating the highest share of visits – compared both to its overall trade area (its potential market) and to the national baseline. These segments, including parents of young children and households with teenagers at home, tend to skew younger than peak GLP-1 users, potentially offering the chain some near-term insulation from rapid GLP-1-driven disruption. Still, these cohorts are also seeing growing adoption – and as usage expands within this demographic, Lane Bryant will need to increasingly support customers through evolving size needs rather than rely on demand tied to a stable size identity.
At the same time, the data points to opportunities to expand reach across other segments. Among older households, Lane Bryant’s captured audience aligns with its trade area but falls below the nationwide average, highlighting potential whitespace that could be unlocked through footprint adjustments or more targeted engagement in markets where this segment is more concentrated.
Among younger “Contemporary Households,” by contrast – a segment that includes singles, non-family households, and married couples without children – the brand under-indexes relative to its trade area while slightly outperforming the national benchmark. This suggests Lane Bryant has geographic access to a larger pool of these consumers but has yet to fully capture their demand, pointing to an opportunity for growth through more targeted marketing and merchandising.
GLP-1 adoption is disrupting traditional plus-size apparel demand, while also creating new opportunities as consumers undergoing weight loss journeys increase spend while moving through sizes. Retailers that can support customers across these transitions with more flexible assortments will be better positioned to capture this shift. And Lane Bryant’s steady operational footing and well-defined core audience provide it with a solid foundation to compete in this next phase of growth.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Downtown districts in the nation’s major cities attract domestic travelers all year long with their iconic sights, lively entertainment, and diverse dining offerings. But each hub follows its own rhythm, shaped by distinct seasonal peaks and dips in visitor flow.
This white paper examines downtown hotel visitation patterns in four of the nation’s most popular destinations for domestic tourists: Miami, Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. Focusing on 20 downtown hotels in each city, the analysis explores seasonal variations in domestic travel, city-specific dynamics, and differentiating factors.
Domestic tourism has rebounded strongly in recent years, and hotels in Miami and Chicago have been the biggest beneficiaries. In 2024, visits to analyzed hotels in each of these cities’ downtown areas grew by 8.9% and 7.4%, respectively, compared to 2023. Meanwhile, hotels in downtown and midtown Manhattan saw a more modest 2.0% increase, while Los Angeles experienced a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline in downtown hotel visits.
One factor that may be driving Miami and Chicago’s stronger performance is their higher proportion of long-distance visitors, defined as those visiting from over 250 miles away. Miami remains a top destination for snowbirds and spring breakers, while Chicago serves as a cultural and entertainment hub for the sprawling Midwest. These long-distance leisure travelers may be more likely to splurge on downtown hotel stays during their trips, helping drive hotel visit growth in the two cities.
By contrast, hotels in the Los Angeles and Manhattan city centers drew lower shares of domestic travelers coming from less than 250 miles away. These shorter-haul domestic tourists may be less likely to splurge on downtown hotels than those taking longer vacations. Both cities are also surrounded by numerous regional getaway options that can draw long-haul leisure travelers away from their downtown cores.
Each of the four analyzed cities has its own unique ebbs and flows – and city center hotel visits reflect these patterns. Miami, with its warm, sunny climate, experiences influxes of tourists during the winter and spring, with March seeing the biggest jump in downtown hotel visits last year (13.0% above the monthly visit average). Chicago, which thrives in the summer with its many festivals and events, saw its biggest downtown hotel visit bump in August. Meanwhile, Manhattan experienced a major uptick in December, likely fueled by holiday tourism and New Year celebrations, and Los Angeles visits were highest in the summertime.
What drives these seasonal visit peaks? Miami has long been a top tourism destination, especially in early spring, when snowbirds and spring breakers flock to the city for sun and relaxation. In recent years, the city has seen a rise in short-term domestic tourism, suggesting that the city is becoming increasingly popular for weekend getaways. According to the Placer.ai Tourism Dashboard, the share of domestic tourists staying just one or two nights grew from 71.7% in March 2022 to 78.3% in March 2024.
This shift aligns with an impressive increase in the magnitude of downtown Miami’s springtime hotel visit peak: In March 2022, visits to downtown hotels were 5.0% above the monthly average for the year, a share that more than doubled by 2024 to 12.9%.
These numbers may mean that more people are choosing to head to Miami for a quick break from the cold – and staying in downtown hotels to make the most of their short getaway.
Chicago’s major August visit spike was likely driven by the Windy City’s impressive lineup of major summer festivals, from Lollapalooza to the Chicago Air and Water Show, which draw thousands of attendees from across the country.
Lollapalooza fueled the largest visit spike to the city – between Thursday, August 1st and Sunday, August 4th, visits to downtown Chicago hotels surged between 51.1% and 63.8% above 2024 daily averages for those days of the week. The Air and Water Show and the Chicago Jazz Festival also generated significant hotel visit increases – highlighting the boost these events bring to the city’s tourism and hospitality sector.
The Big Apple draws a diverse mix of visitors throughout the year. But in December – the city’s peak tourist season – visitors pour in from all over the country to skate in Rockefeller Center, browse Fifth Avenue’s festive window displays and experience the city’s unique holiday magic.
And analyzing data from hotels in midtown and downtown Manhattan reveals a striking shift in the types of visitors who stay in the heart of NYC during the holiday season. While visitors from other urban centers dominated downtown hotel stays throughout most of the year – accounting for 47.9% of visits from January to November 2024 – their share dropped to 42.0% in December 2024. Meanwhile, the share of guests from suburban areas and small towns rose from 37.3% to 41.0%, and the share of guests from rural and semi-rural areas nearly doubled, from 3.5% to 6.1%.
These patterns suggest that, though Manhattan typically attracts a wide range of visitors, the holiday season is uniquely appealing to tourists from smaller towns and suburban areas. Understanding these trends can provide crucial context for hotels and civic stakeholders alike as they work to maximize the opportunities presented by the city’s December visit surge.
Los Angeles hotels also experience significant demographic shifts during peak season. In July, visits to downtown LA hotels surged by 15.3% relative to the 2024 monthly visit average. And a closer look at audience segmentation data suggests a corresponding surge in the share of "Flourishing Families" – an Experian: Mosaic segment consisting of affluent, middle-aged households with children. Throughout the year, "Flourishing Families" comprised between 7.7% and 8.7% of the census block groups (CBGs) driving visits to downtown LA hotels. But in July, this share jumped to 9.9%.
These families may be taking advantage of summer vacations to enjoy Los Angeles’ cultural attractions and entertainment. Hotels and city stakeholders who understand the appeal the city holds for this demographic can better cater to them through family-friendly promotions and strategic marketing efforts to target these households.
Downtowns are making a comeback – and hotels in the heart of the nation’s major tourist hubs are reaping the benefits. By understanding who frequents these downtown hotels and when, local businesses and civic leaders can optimize their resource management and strategic planning to make the most of these opportunities.
The New York office scene is buzzing once again, as companies from JPMorgan to Meta double down on return-to-office (RTO) mandates. But just how did New York office foot traffic fare in 2024? How did Big Apple office foot traffic compare to that of other major business hubs nationwide? And how is New York’s office recovery impacting post-COVID trends like the TGIF work week? Are office visits still concentrated mid-week, or are people coming in more on Fridays and Mondays? And how has Manhattan’s RTO affected local commuting patterns?
We dove into the data to find out.
In 2024, New York City cemented its position as the nationwide leader in office recovery. Thanks in part to remote work crackdowns by banking behemoths like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, visits to NYC office buildings in 2024 were just 13.1% below pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
For comparison, Miami’s office foot traffic remained 16.2% below pre-pandemic levels, while Atlanta, Washington D.C., and Boston saw significantly larger gaps at 28.6%, 37.8%, and 43.9%, respectively.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the Big Apple’s robust year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) recovery, the pace of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth to NYC office buildings was somewhat slower in 2024 than in other major East Coast business centers. Still, New York’s YoY office recovery rate of 12.4% outpaced the nationwide baseline, and came in just slightly below Washington, D.C.’s 15.2% and Atlanta’s 14.6%.
Interestingly, New York’s return to office has not led to a significant retreat from the TGIF work week that emerged during COVID. In 2024, just 11.9% of weekday (Monday to Friday) visits to NYC offices took place on Fridays – only slightly more than the 11.5% recorded in 2023 and significantly below the pre-pandemic baseline of 17.2%.
Meanwhile, Monday has quietly regained its footing as the dreaded start of the New York work week. After dropping significantly in 2022 and 2023, the share of weekday office visits taking place on Mondays rebounded to 18.2% in 2024 – just slightly below 2019’s 19.5%. Still, Tuesday remained the Big Apple’s busiest in-office day of the week last year, accounting for nearly a quarter (24.6%) of weekday NYC office foot traffic.
And diving into Yo5Y data for each day of the work week shows just how much New York’s overall recovery is driven by mid-week visits – and especially Tuesday ones. In 2024, Friday visits to NYC office buildings were down 40.2% compared to 2019. But on Tuesdays, visits were essentially on par with pre-pandemic levels (-0.3%), even as nationwide office visits remained 24.6% below 2019.
Another post-COVID trend that has shown staying power in New York is the growing share of office visits coming from employees who live nearby. As hybrid schedules become the norm, it seems that those commuting more frequently are often just a short subway ride -or even a stroll- away.
The share of NYC office workers coming from less than five miles away, for example, has risen steadily since COVID, reaching 46.0% in 2024. Over the same period, the share of workers coming from 5-10 miles, 10-15 miles, or 25+ miles away has declined.
Looking at commuting trends across the East Coast helps put New York City’s shift into perspective. In 2019, NYC’s share of nearby commuters was on par with Washington, D.C. and slightly below Boston. But while both cities experienced moderate increases in local commuters between 2019 and 2024, New York pulled ahead, outpacing all other analyzed cities in its share of nearby office workers last year.
Miami and Atlanta – two other standout cities in office recovery – also saw significant growth in the percentage of short-distance commuters over the past five years. This trend underscores a broader shift: As hybrid work reshapes commuting habits, employees across multiple markets are more likely to go into the office if they live nearby, reducing reliance on long-haul commutes.
As the nation’s office recovery leader, New York offers a glimpse into what other cities can expect as office visitation rates continue to improve. Even at just 13.1% below pre-pandemic levels, NYC office visit levels continue to rise. And as recovery nears completion, trends that took hold during COVID remain firmly entrenched.
The full-service dining segment has experienced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with pandemic-era closures, rising food and labor costs, and cutbacks in discretionary spending contributing to visit lags. In 2024, visits were down 0.2% year over year (YoY) and remained 8.4% below 2019 levels – a reflection of the significant number of venues that permanently closed over COVID and a testament to the industry's ongoing struggle to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Yet, even in a difficult environment, some full-service restaurant (FSR) chains are thriving. These brands aren’t waiting for the industry to rebound – they're becoming trendsetters in their own right, proving that stand-out strategy is everything in a challenging market.
This white paper explores brands that are harnessing three key differentiators – fixed-price value offerings, elevated social experiences, and a laser focus on product – to drive full-service dining success in 2025.
One of the most defining trends over the past few years has been the unrelenting march of price increases. And as consumers continue to seek out ways to save, some chains are staying ahead of the pack with fixed-price value offerings that help diners squeeze out the very best bang for their buck.
Golden Corral, the all-you-can-eat buffet chain that lets kids under three eat for free, is one FSR that is benefiting from consumers’ current value orientation. Despite closing several locations in 2024, overall visits to the chain still tracked closely with 2023 levels, declining by just 0.5% – while the average number visits to each Golden Corral restaurant grew 3.8% YoY.
Golden Corral’s value proposition is resonating strongly with budget-conscious Americans eager to enjoy a wide variety of comfort foods at an affordable price. The chain’s visitors tend to come from trade areas with lower median household incomes (HHIs) than traditional full-service restaurant (FSR) diners. And these patrons are willing to travel to enjoy the chain’s value buffet offerings, many of which are situated in rural areas and may require a longer drive. In 2024, 25.2% of Golden Corral’s diners came from over 30 miles away – compared to just 19.2% for the wider FSR segment.
Golden Corral’s continued flourishing proves that in an era of rising costs, diners are willing to go the extra mile (literally) for a restaurant that delivers both quality and affordability.
Children’s party space and eatertainment destination Chuck E. Cheese has had a transformative few years. Following the retirement of its iconic animatronic band, the chain shifted its focus to a new membership model, announcing a revamped Summer of Fun pass in May 2024 – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. The pass proved incredibly popular, with YoY visits surging by 15.6% in May 2024, when the offer launched – a sharp turnaround from the YoY visit declines of the previous months. Recognizing the strong demand, Chuck E. Cheese extended the program year-round – and the strategy has paid off as YoY visits remained positive through the end of 2024.
A closer look at the data suggests that parents are making full use of their unlimited passes: The share of weekday visits was higher in H2 2024 than in H2 2023, likely due to families using their passes for weekday entertainment rather than reserving visits for weekends and special occasions.
At the same time, the share of repeat visitors – those frequenting the chain at least twice a month – also grew. Although these repeat visitors may not purchase additional gameplay beyond the flat fee, their more frequent on-site presence likely translates into increased sales of pizza and other menu items.
While value has been a major motivator for restaurant-goers in recent years, low prices aren’t the only drivers of FSR success. Brands offering unique experiences aimed at maximizing social interaction are also seeing outsized gains.
Though many of these more innovative venues tend to be on the more expensive side, they draw enthusiastic crowds willing to pony up for concepts that combine good food with fun social occasions. And some of the more successful ones bolster perceived value through offerings like fixed-price menus or club memberships.
Korean cuisine has been on the rise in recent years, with restaurants like Bonchon Chicken and GEN Korean BBQ House making significant waves in the dining space. Another chain drawing attention is KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot, which began modestly in 2018 and has since expanded to over 150 locations nationwide.
Diners at KPOT can customize their meals by selecting from a variety of proteins, broths, sauces, and side dishes, known as banchan, while barbecuing or cooking in a hotpot at their table and sipping on the drinks from the menu’s extensive selection. And though pricier than Golden Corral, KPOT also offers an all-you-can-eat experience that lets customers squeeze the most value out of their indulgence.
Location intelligence shows that KPOT’s experiential dining model is resonating with customers: Since Q4 2019, the average number of visits to each KPOT location has risen steadily – even as the chain has grown its footprint – while the average dwell time has also increased. Indeed, rather than a quick dining stop, KPOT has become a destination for guests to linger, enjoying both food and drinks – and an interactive and social experience.
By positioning themselves as gathering places for fine wine aficionados, wine-club-focused concepts such as Postino WineCafe and Cooper’s Hawk Winery are also benefiting from today’s consumers’ emphasis on social experiences. The two upscale dining destinations offer club memberships that combine periodic wine releases with a variety of perks.
And the data suggests that the model is strongly resonating with diners. Both Postino and Cooper’s Hawk have grown their footprints over the past year, driving substantial YoY chain-wide visit increases while average visits per location grew as well – showing that the expansions and experiential offerings are meeting robust demand.
And analyzing the two chains’ captured markets shows that the wine club model enjoys broad appeal across a variety of audience segments.
Unsurprisingly, both wine clubs’ visitor bases include higher-than-average shares of affluent consumers with money to spend, including Experian: Mosaic’s “Power Elite”, “Booming with Confidence”, and “Flourishing Families” segments (the nation’s wealthiest families, as well as affluent suburban and middle-aged households). But the two chains also attract younger, more budget-conscious consumers – Postino, which has many downtown locations, is popular among “Singles and Starters”, while Cooper’s Hawk is popular among “Promising Families” - i.e. young couples with children.
The success of the two brands across various segments underscores the impact of a distinctive experience – especially when paired with a loyalty-boosting membership – in attracting today’s consumers.
Value offerings and unique experiences have the power to drive restaurant visits – but ultimately, a good meal in an inviting atmosphere is a draw in and of itself, as is shown by the success of First Watch and Firebirds Wood Fired Grill.
Breakfast-only restaurant First Watch excels at ambiance and menu innovation, changing up its offerings five times a year and striving to maintain a neighborhood feel at each of its locations.
First Watch has made a point of leaning into its strengths, eschewing discounts in favor of a consistently elevated dining experience and doubling down its strongest day part (weekend brunch), rather than trying to artificially drive up interest at other times.
And the strategy appears to be working: In 2024, visits to First Watch increased 6.6% YoY – with Saturdays and Sundays between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M. remaining its busiest dayparts by far. Visitors to First Watch also tend to linger over their meals more than at other breakfast chains – in 2024, the restaurant experienced an average dwell time of 54.9 minutes, significantly longer than the 48.7-minute average at other breakfast-focused restaurants.
By focusing on what matters most to its diners – innovative and exciting food and a welcoming atmosphere that allows patrons to enjoy their meals at a leisurely pace – First Watch is continuing to flourish.
Another chain that is growing its footprint and its audience on the strength of a menu and ambiance-focused approach is Firebirds Wood Fired Grill. The chain, known for its “polished casual” vibe and bold, unique flavors, added several new restaurants last year, leading to a 6.5% increase in overall visits. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Firebirds location held steady – showing that the new restaurants aren’t cannibalizing existing business.
The chain’s success may rest, in part, on its locating its venues in areas rife with enthusiastic foodies. Data from Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph shows that in 2024, Firebird’s trade areas had significantly higher shares of “BBQ Lovers”, “Gourmet Burger Lovers,” and “Foodies” than the nationwide average. This suggests that Firebirds is attracting diners who prioritize the experience of eating – key for a chain that prides itself on putting good food first. The chain is also known for its welcoming decor and design – another aspect that may lead to its strong visit success.
Necessity often serves as the mother of invention, and challenging economic periods continue to spark new trends and innovations in the dining scene. From a heightened focus on value – drawing families and lower-HHI consumers willing to travel for a good deal – to the growing appeal of social dining and the timeless draw of good food – new trends are emerging to meet changing consumer expectations.
