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How did the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining fare in June 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
As the first half of the year comes to a close, retail and dining visits continue to demonstrate resilience. Analyzing the YoY foot traffic performance of the Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining highlights this positive trend, with June visits increasing 6.8% relative to June 2023. This growth follows May 2024's YoY visit growth of 5.3%.
This upward visitation pattern shows that despite continued concerns, consumers are feeling cautiously optimistic about the current economic climate. With back-to-school shopping set to ramp up over the next two months, retail visits may well continue on their upward trajectory.
Drilling down deeper into the data highlights the priority shoppers continue to place on value – with bargain retailers claiming many of the top spots for YoY visit growth. Grocery stores were also major winners in June 2024, likely buoyed by consumers seeking to cut costs by making more of their food at home.
Three grocery chains ranked among June 2024’s top YoY visit performers: Aldi (28.4%), Trader Joe’s (17.4%) and H-E-B (13.3%). These chains, as well as three others – Food Lion Grocery Store, ShopRite, and Walmart Neighborhood Market – were also among the top performing chains for YoY visits per location.
Within the already-strong grocery segment, one chain – H-E-B – continues to prove its staying power. Despite being concentrated in Texas, the chain consistently ranks as one of the most popular grocery chains in the country, as evidenced by its consistently elevated foot traffic.
Since January 2024, YoY visits to H-E-B have increased substantially – outperforming the wider traditional grocery sector. Though very much a full-service supermarket, H-E-B’s foot traffic growth has been more akin to that seen by budget-oriented, limited assortment chains like Aldi and Trader Joe's.
One factor that may be contributing to H-E-B’s ongoing success is its growing role as a purveyor of takeout and inexpensive prepared food options. Many of H-E-B’s grocery stores have in-store restaurants – and the chain also offers a variety of other ready meals and snacks.
The focus on takeout and convenience food seems to be a solid move for H-E-B, as evidenced by the chain’s YoY increase in short visits – i.e., those lasting under ten minutes. In Q2 2024, short visits to H-E-B increased by 14.3% compared to Q2 2023, while over the same period, longer visits increased by a more modest 10.7%. Some of these quick-stop visitors may be dropping by to grab a snack or to-go meal.
In recognition of the growing demand for quick-stop grocery and prepared food options, H-E-B has also been making inroads into the c-store space, with a chain of twelve convenience stores recently rebranded as H-E-B Fresh Bites. And as a grocer with its finger on the pulse of what shoppers want, H-E-B appears poised for further success.
As the summer gets underway, retail and dining visitation patterns remain strong – with value chains and grocery retailers leading the way. How will these trends continue to play out throughout the summer?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
How did indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls fare in June 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Fresh on the heels of May’s strong showing, malls continued to impress in June 2024. Weekly year-over-year (YoY) visits to all three mall types (indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls) remained robust throughout the month, as shoppers took advantage of the warm weather to go shopping.
YoY foot traffic to malls was especially high during the week of June 17th – when a record-breaking heat wave likely drove shoppers to seek refuge in air-conditioned spaces – including both malls and individual stores. During that week, indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls saw YoY visit increases of 9.4%, 9.9%, and 4.5%, respectively.
Malls’ positive June performance appears to herald a strong summer shopping season for the sector – which tends to draw larger crowds in summer months.
Comparing monthly mall visits to a January 2019 baseline shows that all three mall types experience substantial summer foot traffic boosts. For indoor malls and open-air shopping centers, the summer foot traffic increases – though significant – pale in comparison to those of the holiday season. But for outlet malls, the July and August foot traffic spikes rival those seen in December.
Outlet malls’ special summertime opportunity may be driven by a variety of factors. People may have more time to travel to outlet malls during summer vacations and may be more inclined to embrace the experience of a leisurely shopping day trip when the weather is warm. College students and parents eager to find back-to-school deals may also flock to outlet malls in July and August as they gear up for the academic year.
And with such a strong June under their belts, outlet malls – as well as indoor malls and open-air shopping centers – appear poised for a successful summer indeed.
The warm summer months not only bring more shoppers to malls, but also lead to longer visits. Analyzing monthly shifts in malls’ average visit durations since May 2023 shows that like foot traffic, mall dwell time also has a seasonal element – with people staying longer during holiday shopping seasons, as well as in the summer. Visit durations peak in July, and then again in November and December – with smaller jumps seen in March, likely a result of Easter and Spring Break.
And looking more closely at dwell time trends over the past six months shows that since the beginning of 2024, mall visit length increased slightly each month for all three mall types. June 2024 average visit durations to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls were 1.9, 1.3, and 3.1 minutes longer, respectively, than in January 2024. While these differences are subtle, the consistency of the shift is striking – and considering that the averages are derived from millions of visits to hundreds of malls, it reflects a significant trend.
As the temperatures warm up, shoppers are happy to hit the mall. All three mall types saw a strong June, indicating a promising summer ahead.
Will July and August meet these high expectations for shopping malls across the country?
Visit our blog at placer.ai to find out.
Return-to-office (RTO) mandates are once again the talk of the town, with growing numbers of employers requiring workers to move back closer to the office and come into the office more frequently. Despite employee pushback, the trend is leaving its mark on everything from downtown retailers to local housing markets.
But how is the RTO push impacting office attendance? We dove into the data to find out.
In June 2024, visits to offices nationwide were just 29.4% below June 2019 levels – and the highest they’ve been since before the pandemic. June’s strong year-over-year (YoY) showing is particularly impressive given the fact that June 2024 had one fewer workday than June 2019 (Juneteenth was declared a federal holiday in 2021).
Digging down into regional data shows Miami continuing to lead the office recovery pack, with June 2024 visits down just 9.8% compared to the equivalent period of 2019. New York was once again close on Miami’s heels – driven in part by strict RTO policies on Wall Street. Atlanta, Dallas, and Washington, D.C. also outperformed the nationwide baseline, while Boston, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, Houston, and San Francisco took up the rear.
A look at regional YoY visitation patterns offers additional insight into each city’s unique office recovery trajectory. Houston, which was hit hard by inclement weather in May 2024, suffered an additional setback in June – with tropical storm warnings and extreme heat waves likely inducing many locals to stay home.
Atlanta and Boston, on the other hand, experienced their busiest in-office month since the pandemic – with respective June 2024 YoY visit increases of 10.0% and 10.3%. Atlanta, which has been outperforming nationwide averages for some months now, has seen an accelerated recovery fueled by accumulating RTO mandates. And in Boston, too, growing numbers of companies are calling on employees to put in more face time.
San Francisco, meanwhile, surrendered its YoY visit growth lead, even as the San Francisco Federal Reserve president urged tech companies to tighten their in-office policies.
The new hybrid normal may be firmly entrenched – but foot traffic data shows that the RTO story is still very much ongoing. How will office visits continue to shape up as the year wears on?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out.
Movie theaters, among the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, have faced challenges in foot traffic recovering to pre-COVID levels. However, the release of major blockbusters including Barbie, Oppenheimer, Spiderman: No Way Home, Top Gun: Maverick, and others, led to dramatic surges in movie theater visits, proving that the silver screen can still draw crowds.
While some of these films shattered box-office records upon release, the recently premiered "Inside Out 2" – an animated coming-of-age film – is poised to exceed even those impressive metrics, setting a new benchmark for success.
Expectations for the new Disney-Pixar powerhouse sequel “Inside Out 2” were high long before its theatrical premiere on June 14th, 2024. Fans and critics alike were eagerly anticipating the return of Riley and her emotions. But even among these high expectations, the film’s effect was astonishing, becoming the fastest-ever animated feature to surpass the billion-dollar mark.
And the film's huge success is only further emphasized by foot traffic data of major movie theater chains across the country. On the week of June 10th, when the film was released, AMC theaters, Cinemark, and Regal Cinemas saw remarkable respective visit peaks of 76.7%, 70.5%, and 83.2% compared to the previous week.
But the momentum didn’t stop there. Theater visits continued to surge into the second week following the film’s release, driven by the ongoing hype surrounding "Inside Out 2." Week over week, AMC theaters, Cinemark and Regal Cinemas experienced respective visits increases of 14.8%, 18.2%, and 14.3%.
The "Inside Out 2" visit effect was not only impressive on its own but also remarkable when compared to other major blockbuster films released in the past two years. Visits to the three biggest theater chains nationwide saw extraordinary upticks ranging from 67.5% to 72.6% compared to the weekly average of the second quarter of 2024. The closest comparable accomplishment in the past two years was the release of the “Super Mario Bros. Movie” in April 2023, which generated theater visits between 32.2% and 35.8% higher than the weekly average visits for that quarter.
The visit surge brought on by "Inside Out 2" highlights the movie’s massive draw and sets a new industry benchmark, solidifying its place as a monumental success in recent cinema history.
Theater chains know in advance that a highly anticipated Disney-Pixar film will fill their theaters with the joyful squeals of little ones. However, family films don’t just attract families; they also draw visitors from a wider range of socioeconomic backgrounds, all eager to enjoy a much-talked-about film and an affordable outing for the entire family. This was especially true for "Inside Out 2," which premiered just as a record-breaking heat wave hit the country, driving millions to seek refuge in an air-conditioned movie theater.
Indeed, analyzing the captured markets of the most-visited AMC, Cinemark, and Regal Cinemas during the week of the film’s release showed that not only did they attract a higher percentage of visitors from households with children, as anticipated, but they also drew more visitors with lower household incomes. This influx significantly lowered the median household income of the theater’s captured markets, highlighting the film’s broad appeal and its ability to provide accessible entertainment to all.
The impressive visit surge from the release of "Inside Out 2" highlights the still-strong demand for out-of-home entertainment and the staying power of the movie theater industry. And with a lineup of highly anticipated releases this summer, theaters are poised to continue satisfying the demand for in-cinema entertainment well into 2024 and beyond.
Will major blockbuster films continue to be the main factor driving the movie theater industry forward? Can the industry maintain strong visit volumes between top releases?
Visit our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
How did Petco and PetSmart, the two big-box leaders of the pet sector, fare in early 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
In recent months, Inflation and sagging consumer confidence have taken their toll on the pet supplies industry, which relies at least partially on discretionary spending, and in its Q1 2024 earnings report, Petco reported a minor YoY drop in revenue. But while Petco saw YoY visit dips in January and April – softened by minor upticks in February and March – visits increased 3.7% YoY in May.
PetSmart, for its part, experienced even more consistent YoY visit lags in early 2024. But like its competitor, the pet supplies giant also saw signs of a potential softening or even reversal of this trend in May. And for both chains, May’s positive showing may be a sign of even better things to come heading into summer.
But while Petco led PetSmart in YoY visit performance in early 2024, PetSmart hasn’t relinquished its position as the most-visited pet store chain in the country. Between January and May 2024, 62.1% of total foot traffic to the two chains went to PetSmart, compared to just 37.9% for Petco, and PetSmart was the top-visited chain in most regions nationwide.
Still, drilling down into statewide-level data reveals a more complex picture. In New England, Petco was the dominant player in early 2024. And in the Pacific region, the two chains were neck in neck.
PetSmart’s visit share lead is partially driven by its larger fleet. But foot traffic data shows that other factors are likely at play as well.
Indeed, though both chains boast loyal visitor bases, PetSmart customers generate more repeat visits than Petco ones – a factor likely further contributing to PetSmart’s increased visit share.
During the first part of 2024, some 21.1% to 21.8% of PetSmart visitors visited the chain at least twice each month – compared to 18.1% to 19.0% for Petco. PetSmart’s enhanced loyalty may be driven in part by the greater selection in-house pet services offered by the chain.
Pet store visits tend to be seasonal – December is generally the industry’s busiest month of the year, followed by March and July. Do Petco’s and PetSmart’s May upticks herald strong July peaks this year?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven retail analyses to find out.
Everybody loves ice cream – so with summer underway, we dove into the data to explore the performance of ice cream shops nationwide.
The past couple of years have been all about affordable indulgences – and ice cream chains have been riding the wave. Comparing monthly category-wide visits to a January 2020 baseline shows the industry reaching new peaks each summer, with May 2024 seeing the most monthly foot traffic in 4.5 years.
In June 2024, weekly YoY visits trended upwards even more sharply – as a record-breaking heat wave during the week of June 17th sent Americans nationwide seeking ways to cool down. The scorching temperatures left no doubt that summer had officially arrived, and as consumers fired up their ACs and got their summer wardrobes ready, they also flocked to ice-cream chains to chill out with a sweet treat.
With such strong performance under their belts, ice cream chains appear poised to continue to flourish as the peak summer season wears on.
It’s no secret that ice cream is one of the most seasonal food sectors – and the success of many ice cream chains hinges on their ability to make the most of the summer months, when foot traffic is generally at its highest. But a look at seasonal visitation trends for four major chains – Dairy Queen (focusing on “treat only” locations that do not include a full-service restaurant), Cold Stone Creamery, Carvel, and Ben & Jerry’s – shows that the extent of this seasonality varies among chains – and among different regions of the country.
Visits to Dairy Queen locations in New York, for example, are highly driven by seasonality – with May foot traffic more than 300% higher than that seen in January. Dairy Queen locations in Florida, on the other hand, experience much more subdued summer visit peaks. Similar trends can be observed for the other analyzed chains.
Ice cream’s seasonality impacts consumer behavior in other ways as well. Though there are once again important differences between ice cream chains, all analyzed brands saw visitor dwell time jump during the summer and decline in winter.
In May 2023 and 2024, for example, a respective 49.1% and 48.6% of visits to Dairy Queen lasted more than ten minutes. But between November 2023 and February 2024, less than 40.0% of visits lasted more than ten minutes – as customers likely ordered their ice-cream to go. Visitors to Ben and Jerry’s, on the other hand, are more likely to linger in-store, with over 70.0% of visits lasting more than ten minutes year-round. But like Dairy Queen, the chain also sees a significant jump in longer visits during the summer.
The ice cream industry continues to show strong performance across the board, with indications of an even stronger summer ahead. Are there more visit peaks in store for the category this year?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
