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Dave’s Hot Chicken and Dutch Bros represent two stages of competitive maturity in the dining industry. Dave’s, the rookie powerhouse, is still in its breakout phase – driven by speed, excitement, and growth at any cost. Dutch Bros, on the other hand, is the seasoned veteran entering a more disciplined period of its career, focused on refinement, endurance, and strategic precision.
A snapshot of nationwide foot traffic data clearly shows the difference between the two brands. Between January and October 2025, Dave’s Hot Chicken recorded a remarkable 59.3% increase in total visits, driven by an aggressive pace of new openings. And the average number of visits to each individual store also rose 4.8%, signaling robust and growing demand.
Dutch Bros, meanwhile, experienced a more measured 13.1% growth in total visits, with visits per location holding steady at 0.2%. This stability suggests that while new units continue to perform, many established markets are reaching maturity – a hallmark of a seasoned brand transitioning from rapid expansion to optimization.
The contrast between the two brands becomes even more striking when analyzing major markets. While Dutch Bros’ visit growth reflects slower gains tied to market maturity, Dave’s is posting explosive per-location surges in major DMAs like Chicago (+18.4%), Orlando (+15.5%), and Houston (+15.0%). It’s the classic rookie hot streak – fast, fearless, and full of momentum.
Dutch Bros is now a massive operation with 1,080 locations in 24 states as of September 2025. Though much of the company's early growth was achieved through a franchise system, Dutch Bros stopped selling franchises to operators who didn’t grow up in the company in 2008 – and stopped franchising completely in 2017 to maintain consistency and preserve its distinctive brand and culture.
Today, only about 30% of Dutch Bros locations are franchise-operated. And as illustrated by the map below, while new stores are fueling growth, older markets – particularly in the Pacific Northwest – are reaching maturity. Dutch Bros is no longer just sprinting to open new stores; it’s managing endurance and refining its playbook – optimizing store placement, leveraging data analytics, and deepening engagement through its digital rewards program. This maturity mirrors what Starbucks went through two decades ago: fewer easy wins, but a much higher floor for long-term performance.
Then there’s Dave’s Hot Chicken – fast, fearless, and still in its hyper-growth phase. From a parking-lot pop-up in 2017 to around 300 locations today, Dave’s is scaling at a speed rarely seen in food service.
Like Dutch Bros in its early days, Dave’s still embraces a franchise-first approach. Backed by Roark Capital and celebrity investors including Drake, the brand is leveraging multi-unit operators to plant flags nationwide and abroad. The company aims to open 150 new locations a year and recently signed an 180-unit European deal with Azzurri Group – proof that the rookie’s winning streak is turning into a global phenomenon.
And the map below highlights how Dave’s Hot Chicken is playing offense with no signs of slowing down. The brand’s franchise-first model allows for rapid scaling with lower capital risk, while Roark Capital’s involvement brings big-league operational infrastructure. But like any breakout player, the challenge will be endurance – ensuring franchisees maintain consistency and profitability as the system races toward 1,000+ units.
For operators and investors, the Dutch Bros/Dave’s contrast is a roadmap to growth sequencing. Early-stage brands can learn from Dave’s: Invest in buzz, speed, and market saturation while consumer curiosity is high. Maturing chains, on the other hand, can look to Dutch Bros as proof that disciplined growth, data-led decisions, and cultural integrity are what sustain relevance once expansion slows.
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Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
How is lululemon performing in a challenging retail environment, and what does Black Friday data suggest about the holiday shopping season already under way? We dove into the data to find out.
Visits to lululemon were up 4.2% year over year (YoY) in Q3 2025 – a promising sign ahead of the holidays. And though monthly same-store visits trended slightly negative YoY, same-store traffic grew in October – a positive sign ahead of a critical holiday season.
Looking back at previous holiday seasons provides further room for optimism for lululemon. The retailer reliably sees late-year traffic spikes – on Black Friday and especially at the end of December, when its End-of-Year sale and Boxing Day discounts pull in last-minute and bargain-seeking shoppers.
Black Friday 2025 data shows that luluemon is already off to a strong start, with visits surpassing even last year's strong performance – the chain experienced a 350.8% increase in visits compared to its January to September 2025 daily visit average.
Looking ahead, this early momentum positions lululemon to reclaim share during what many retailers expect to be a tighter holiday season. Given macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer sentiment, early wins like this may be critical – strong traffic now could translate into outsized holiday-season revenue, reinforce customer loyalty, and help offset any softening in post-Black-Friday demand.
Lululemon is driving increased foot traffic despite visit softness earlier in the year and persistent consumer headwinds. With the all-important holiday season fast-approaching, will the chain continue to drive visit growth?
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Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Prior to Black Friday, mall visits across the three formats (indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls) were running comfortably ahead of 2024 levels. But during the week of Black Friday 2025, visits to indoor malls and open-air centers flattened or even dropped year over year – suggesting that many shoppers had moved their trips to earlier in November, when mall retailers had begun rolling out early Black Friday promotions.
A closer look at daily traffic across the Black Friday weekend reveals how this shift played out. Friday performed well across all formats, with indoor mall visits rising 3.1% year over year, open-air centers up 1.7%, and outlet malls essentially flat but still slightly positive. But Saturday and Sunday traffic declined YoY, weighing down on Friday's gains and pulling the whole week into negative YoY territory.
So Friday retained its status as the high-impact day, but the rest of the weekend showed signs of promotional fatigue – or simply that shoppers had already taken advantage of the deals they wanted.
If visit counts capture one dimension of consumer behavior, dwell time reveals another. The share of visits lasting more than an hour declined across all mall formats relative to last year, indicating a more mission-driven shopper – someone who arrives with a plan, moves efficiently, and heads on to the next task. The trend may also hint at a strategic shift: some consumers may have used earlier November visits to scout specific items or sizes, allowing them to streamline their Black Friday trips and focus on securing the best deals both inside and outside the mall.
Most importantly, a broader look at year-over-year monthly visits shows that the early surge in November traffic more than offset the softness during Black Friday week, ultimately providing November 2025 with an overall YoY traffic boost. This pattern suggests that the holiday season’s momentum is becoming less dependent on a single weekend and increasingly shaped by how effectively retailers engage shoppers throughout the month – and the longer holiday season as a whole.
Black Friday mall data suggests that consumers are still engaging deeply with physical retail, yet the cadence of that engagement is evolving. They are starting earlier, concentrating their in-person activity in shorter bursts, and reserving their longest visits for fewer occasions. For retailers, this dynamic underscores the importance of capturing Friday’s surge, aligning promotions with earlier November interest, and offering experiences compelling enough to draw shoppers back later in the weekend. For landlords, the data highlights opportunities to support purposeful shopping with frictionless navigation, efficient operations, and programming that encourages dwell at moments when the natural impulse may be to move quickly.
As December data comes into view – from Super Saturday to the final week before Christmas – the key question will be whether these patterns continue or whether late-season urgency reshapes the curve once again. For now, the early read is clear: shoppers are showing up, but on their own terms, and malls that adapt to this more intentional consumer are positioned to capture the strongest returns.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Black Friday 2025 offered an early look at how consumers are approaching a holiday season defined by tighter budgets and more deliberate spending. Foot traffic trends across regions and retail categories show that while the traditional Black Friday playbook still generates major surges for core retail segments, value-oriented formats and convenient, low-cost treats are playing a larger role in shaping how and where shoppers decide to spend. The data points to a consumer who is highly selective: willing to pursue standout deals, but just as focused on stretching their dollars and fitting purchases into packed holiday routines.
The map below shows retail visits on Black Friday (November 28, 2025) compared to each DMA’s year-to-date daily average. Purple areas indicate DMAs where Black Friday traffic rose more than the national average increase of 53.0%, while yellow areas represent markets where the surge fell below that benchmark.
Once again, the Midwest led the country in in-person Black Friday activity, far outpacing major coastal metros. The region’s strong turnout reflects how sharply Midwestern shoppers respond to clear, compelling value. For retailers and dining brands hoping to grow their footprint in the region, the takeaway is straightforward: transparent pricing, well-structured promotions, and messaging that reinforces everyday value can go a long way in capturing visits.
Several value-focused categories – thrift stores, wholesale clubs, off-price retailers, and discount & dollar stores – posted year-over-year (YoY) visit gains, even though their increases relative to typical daily traffic were relatively modest. This YoY growth on a day defined by aggressive discount-hunting suggests that these formats are becoming meaningful Black Friday destinations – and could indicate that more consumers are motivated by the final price they pay rather than the size of the advertised markdown.
Still, the data also makes clear that traditional Black Friday winners can draw crowds. Mid-tier department stores, beauty, sporting goods, and electronics all saw outsized visit spikes relative to their YTD averages, with department stores more than doubling typical weekend traffic.
Together, the data paints a picture of a holiday season defined by careful tradeoffs: Even amid macroeconomic pressure, mid-tier retailers can still draw high-intent shoppers – especially if offering the right discount. At the same time, value-focused formats are gaining traction among consumers watching their budgets more closely.
Consumers’ in-store behavior over Black Friday also reflected a strong focus on value. The share of longer visits (30+ minutes) increased across all four Black Friday mainstays – mid-tier department stores, beauty & self care, sporting goods, and electronics – reflecting a consumer base willing to invest more time to secure the right deal. Many shoppers likely used in-store browsing as a strategy to compare options, verify value, and assemble baskets made up of multiple smaller-ticket items rather than focusing their spend on a single high-priced purchase. The uptick in extended visits suggests that Black Friday is becoming as much about maximizing savings as it is about fulfilling gift lists – an approach aligned with shoppers’ heightened price sensitivity and the growing emphasis on strategic, mission-driven store trips.
Overall, the rise in longer visits also underscores that value – not just discounts – shaped the in-store experience this year, prompting consumers to slow down, evaluate options, and leave with fuller baskets.
Coffee chains were one of Black Friday’s most unexpected standouts, with visits to drive-thru forward formats in particular (Dutch Bros, 7 Brew Coffee, and Scooter's Coffee) surging 47.5% to 52.6% higher than their YTD daily average. These spikes show how strongly convenient, low-ticket beverages resonate on a day otherwise dominated by big purchases and aggressive deal-hunting.
The Black Friday visit boosts also reveal that, even as budgets tighten, consumers continue to make space for small, affordable indulgences – especially those that fit naturally into a day of errands and shopping. For coffee chains, this underscores the value of speed, seamless access, and timely seasonal offerings. For retailers, it highlights the role food-and-beverage stops play in the broader holiday journey, creating opportunities for cross-promotion and helping stabilize traffic around peak shopping windows.
As the holiday season continues, the trends emerging from Black Friday suggest retailers should prepare for a consumer defined by cautious but purposeful spending. Regions that respond most strongly to value, categories anchored in everyday affordability, and concepts that offer convenience and small indulgences all appear well positioned to capture incremental holiday visits. Retailers that adapt with localized value messaging, balanced promotional strategies, and partnerships or offerings that align with shoppers’ broader journeys stand to benefit as consumers prioritize both savings and ease.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Home-cooked meals may anchor the holidays, yet dining out remains a key part of the seasonal rhythm. Examining how visits trended last year helps illuminate which segments could gain the most traction this December and where holiday dining demand may concentrate.
While the holiday season is a major period for retail, some dining segments also experience a notable lift. Visits to the coffee category outperformed their 2024 weekly average in November, likely boosted by the appeal of leading chains' holiday menu and the popularity of Starbucks' Red Cup Day. The category saw another surge the week before Christmas, as shoppers sought out caffeine to power through last-minute errands.
Full-service restaurants tend to see visitation build towards the end of the holiday season – visits were 7.1% higher than average the week of December 16th, 2024, and remained elevated during the week of Christmas, even as other dining categories experienced slight dips. This likely reflects the shift from workday and errand-driven routines to family gatherings, out-of-town guests, and special-occasion meals. Meanwhile, categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to soften as commuting, shopping, and other everyday behaviors pause for the holiday.
Meanwhile, fast-casual and quick-service segments trended lower during holidays than they did during the rest of the year – though the week before Christmas bucked the trend, likely lifted by shoppers stopping for quick meals amid last-minute errands.
Within full-service dining, upscale and fine-dining concepts were the clear standouts of the season. The segment saw steady gains throughout December, culminating in a 33.7% jump the week of December 16th and remaining elevated into Christmas week – a pattern likely supported by companies and large groups booking higher-end restaurants for end-of-year celebrations.
Breakfast-first chains, by contrast, showed softer performance for most of the period and only saw meaningful lifts during family-focused holiday weeks, when out-of-town visitors and holiday traditions drove more morning and brunch outings.
Casual dining and eatertainment concepts also experienced holiday-related bumps, but in distinct ways. Casual dining saw a brief boost the week of November 11th, likely tied to Veterans Day promotions, and then a more meaningful lift the week before Christmas as consumers grabbed convenient meals while running last-minute errands. Eatertainment venues, on the other hand, peaked during Christmas week, benefiting from families seeking activity-based outings once holiday gatherings were underway. While neither category matched the sustained strength of upscale dining, each captured demand consistent with the role they play in the holiday dining cycle.
Looking ahead to this year’s holiday season, the year-over-year dining patterns point to a dining landscape led once again by upscale and fine dining. This segment is the only one showing consistent momentum heading into November, with steady gains that suggest another strong December for premium full-service concepts.
The rest of the full-service category is entering the season on more uneven footing. Breakfast-first chains, eatertainment venues, and casual dining brands are all tracking close to or below last year’s levels, with several weeks of declines and only brief periods of improvement. While the weeks of November 10th and 17th offer early signs of stabilization for some segments, the broader picture remains mixed.
Still, holiday dining behaviors typically shift sharply as Thanksgiving, Christmas travel, and family gatherings come into focus. If past patterns hold, all four segments may see meaningful late-season lifts – but upscale dining is the category best positioned to outperform as the holidays accelerate.
Upscale and fine dining, coffee, and breakfast-first chains demonstrated clear seasonal lifts last year. As December approaches, will these patterns re-emerge, or will consumer caution lead to wider pull-backs among the dining segment?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Thanksgiving brought a healthy rise in movie theater traffic while still trailing 2024’s exceptional highs. The gap points to a growing reality in the theatrical space: In 2025, audiences show up strongest when franchises – and preferably, multiple franchises at once – lead the way.
Thanksgiving reliably drives a surge in theater visits, as families seek shared holiday activities and studios lean into the demand by releasing family-friendly blockbusters. This year was no different, when the release of Wicked: For Good on November 21st and Zootopia 2 on November 26th – both installments in well-established franchises – helped fuel a holiday bump. Movie theater visits climbed 218% higher than the YTD average for a typical Wednesday on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, while Black Friday traffic rose 103.2% above the average Friday so far in 2025.
Still, movie theater traffic fell significantly short of 2024 levels, dropping 27.9% on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and 31.7% on Black Friday. These gaps underscore just how extraordinary last year’s slate was, when Wicked and Gladiator II opened the Friday before Thanksgiving, followed by Moana 2 the next Wednesday. These franchise titles – and, in the case of Wicked, a film backed by a major existing IP – produced unusually large attendance spikes throughout the 2024 holiday window.
Analyzing year-to-date traffic patterns at movie theaters reinforces just how dependent theaters have become on major franchise installments. Throughout 2025, nearly every pronounced traffic peak aligns with a franchise launch – from Captain America: Brave New World on Valentine’s Day to Minecraft in April, Jurassic World: Rebirth and Superman in July, and The Conjuring: Last Rites in September.
These weekends routinely spiked movie traffic over the release weekend – and the strongest releases produced multi-week periods of elevated visitation. As shown in the chart below, titles like Minecraft, Jurassic World, and the latest Mission: Impossible kept both weekday and weekend traffic meaningfully higher for two to four weeks – often until the next major blockbuster arrived.
The data suggests that moviegoing has shifted from a routine outing to an event-driven decision. Audiences aren’t heading to theaters just for the experience anymore – they go when a specific film feels worth the trip, typically a sequel or another piece of well-known IP. As a result, theaters no longer see steady week-to-week demand, though blockbusters can still drive weeks of elevated traffic.
As the holiday season continues, theaters have an opportunity to extend the strong, IP-driven momentum that has shaped 2025 so far. December brings a lineup of major sequels and family-friendly releases – including Avatar: Fire and Ash and The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, both arriving the Friday before Christmas. These titles are poised to draw large holiday audiences and, if recent patterns hold, generate multi-week lifts that support not only theaters but the broader mix of surrounding businesses.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
