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Following five consecutive quarters of declining same-store sales, Wendy's has appointed Robert D. “Bob” Wright – fresh off a successful turnaround at Potbelly – to steer the Dublin, Ohio-based chain back to growth. Can Wright work his magic once again? We dove into the data to understand what it will take to engineer another comeback.
Wendy's appointment of Bob Wright is rooted in his success leading Potbelly through a strong post-pandemic recovery. During Wright's tenure, Potbelly outperformed the broader fast-casual segment, while Wendy's has struggled to keep pace with the QSR industry's recovery – and Wendy's is likely betting that Wright can bring a similar turnaround playbook to Wendy's.
But whether Wright can replicate his success at Potbelly depends, in part, on what's driving Wendy's current challenges.
While macroeconomic headwinds have pressured value-oriented restaurant spending, they do not fully explain Wendy’s recent traffic struggles.
Wendy’s, McDonald’s, Burger King, and Taco Bell all attract visitors from trade areas with similar median household incomes, yet Wendy’s has been the only chain to consistently post substantially weaker same-store visit performance over the past year.
Cross-visitation data further suggests that Wendy's challenges extend beyond macroeconomic headwinds. Since 2019, Wendy's customers have become increasingly likely to visit competing restaurant chains, indicating that the brand may be losing differentiation in an increasingly crowded market.
The encouraging news for Wendy's is that the traffic data points to several areas of underlying strength. If Wendy's can reconnect with consumer segments and dayparts where it has historically demonstrated traction, it may be able to reignite growth without fundamentally reinventing the brand.
On the demographic front, AI-based location analytics suggests that Wendy's may already possess an advantage that many restaurant chains are trying to build – a meaningful connection with younger consumers. Compared to the broader QSR industry, Wendy's captured market includes a larger share of younger, nonfamily households, indicating that the brand has established a stronger foothold among Gen Z and younger millennials than many of its peers.
So rather than trying to fundamentally reshape its customer base, Wendy's may have a greater opportunity to build on an audience that is already engaging with the brand. The success of initiatives such as the SpongeBob SquarePants collaboration demonstrates how culturally relevant campaigns can translate that engagement into traffic gains, giving Wendy's a potential blueprint for strengthening its relevance with younger consumers even further.
At the same time, the chain also overindexes on older consumers, positioning it to appeal to two demographic groups that many brands struggle to reach simultaneously. This positions the brand to appeal to two demographic groups that many restaurant concepts struggle to reach simultaneously and may create opportunities across multiple dining occasions. In particular, older consumers could represent a valuable audience for breakfast, a daypart where Wendy's has historically invested heavily but has recently begun to pull back.
Indeed, Wendy's has recently allowed some franchisees to reduce breakfast hours as demand has softened across the industry. Yet the data suggests that the brand's breakfast's challenges are not solely a function of weakening consumer demand for QSR breakfast – Wendy's morning traffic has fallen substantially faster than the category as a whole, pointing to a meaningful share loss.
That dynamic – especially given the brand's overindexing among older diners – raises questions about whether further retrenchment is the right long-term strategy. Even though breakfast accounts for a relatively small share of overall visits (less than 9% of Wendy's visits take place between 6 AM and 10 AM) abandoning the daypart risks accelerating traffic declines, and it is not clear that consumers who stop visiting Wendy's for breakfast will simply shift their visits to lunch or dinner. Instead, targeted efforts to improve breakfast awareness, relevance, and differentiation could help Wendy's close one of its largest performance gaps and recapture incremental visits that might otherwise be lost to competitors.
While Wendy's challenges are real, location analytics suggest that the chain is far from starting from scratch. Between its established appeal among younger consumers, its strength with older diners, and a breakfast business that still has room to improve, Wendy's has several levers it can pull to regain momentum. If Bob Wright can apply the same combination of focus, differentiation, and disciplined execution that fueled Potbelly's turnaround, Wendy's may be better positioned for a comeback than recent traffic trends suggest.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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May 2026 brought a fresh round of return-to-office (RTO) pressure – PNC Financial's five-day mandate took effect at the start of the month, while EY told its U.S. tax teams to plan for more in-person time this summer. Both join a growing list of employers tightening face-time policies. At the same time, gas prices climbed to an average of $4.61 in May, making the commute more expensive for employees who drive to work.
How did these competing forces play out on the ground? Did the office recovery continue, or was May the first month this year to show signs of slowing down? We dove into the data to find out.
At first glance, May's results suggest a slowdown. Total visits to the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Index were 38.6% below May 2019 levels and 1.2% below May 2025.
But the apparent weakness is largely explained by the calendar. May 2026 included only 20 working days, compared to 21 in May 2025 and 22 in May 2019. When adjusting for business days, visits were actually 3.7% higher than last year and just 32.4% below the 2019 baseline – compared to 34.9% for May 2025. In other words, May 2026 was the busiest May for per-working-day office attendance since the pandemic, extending the streak in which every month so far this year has set a post-pandemic high for its respective calendar month.
Still, even when normalized, the pace of YoY growth was modest, suggesting that higher commuting costs may be tempering some of the gains from ongoing return-to-office initiatives.
Nationwide Office Index, May 2026
The same calendar effect carried across the major markets, where most cities showed year-over-year declines on raw visits that turned positive once working days were accounted for. San Francisco led the year-over-year (YoY) field, with per-working-day visits up 8.2% – tracking the city's AI-driven leasing recovery. With its strongest leasing quarter this year since 2014, declining office availability, and robust net absorption, the city appears increasingly well-positioned to sustain its momentum.
Los Angeles followed at +6.5% YoY per working day, with Dallas, Chicago, Miami, New York, and Boston all in positive territory. Only three markets stayed slightly negative: Denver, down 1.4% from a year ago, Houston, down 0.6%, and Washington, D.C., essentially flat at -0.1%.
Denver's continued softness likely reflects the same dynamics noted last month – a particularly remote-friendly labor market and record-high downtown vacancy. Still, improving net absorption and gradually strengthening demand for Class A office space may portend stronger visitation trends in the months ahead. Houston's slight decline, meanwhile, may partly stem from contraction in its dominant energy sector, where major employers such as Chevron have reduced local headcount.
On the longer view versus 2019, the RTO rankings held their usual shape. Miami remained the clear leader, sitting 11.0% below its pre-pandemic baseline on a per-working-day basis, with New York next at 18.3% below. Denver finished last once more, down 48.4% from 2019. And San Francisco held onto third-to-last position, showing how far it has come from its former status as the nation's weakest-performing office market.
The pace of office recovery moderated in May, but the calendar accounted for most of the apparent weakness. On a per-working-day basis, office attendance continued to rise, with gains recorded across most major markets.
Whether lower gas prices or additional RTO mandates will reignite a faster recovery later in the year remains to be seen. For now, however, the data suggests that office utilization continues to inch upward, even as the pace of improvement becomes more gradual.
For more data-driven office recovery analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Despite reports of record-low consumer sentiment in May 2026, consumer foot traffic increased year-over-year across all mall formats in May, marking the second straight month of gains and the fourth positive month of 2026.
Some of May's gains may be attributable to a calendar shift. May 2026 included one additional Sunday and one fewer Thursday than May 2025 – and because Sundays typically generate stronger mall traffic than Thursdays, the difference in weekday composition likely provided a tailwind for visitation.
Still, even after adjusting for differences in weekday composition, YoY traffic growth remained positive for both indoor malls and open-air centers. Even outlet malls – which typically require longer drives and cater to less affluent shoppers – maintained traffic levels in line with last year despite ongoing economic pressures.
Year-over-Year Change in Average Daily Visits by Weekday and Mall Format, With Each Format's Calendar-Normalized Monthly Trend
Bars show the year-over-year change in average daily visits for each weekday; dashed lines show each format's calendar-normalized monthly figure.
The stable-to-positive mall visitation trends are particularly notable given the broader discretionary retail environment, where consumer traffic has declined YoY since mid-April as rising gas prices and economic uncertainty have begun to weigh on spending behavior.
What is setting malls apart? One potential explanation is that mall visits and traditional retail spending are increasingly decoupled. Unlike standalone retail stores, malls serve a variety of purposes beyond shopping, including dining, fitness, entertainment, and socializing. As a result, consumers may be scaling back purchases of discretionary goods without materially reducing their mall visits. And while they may be spending less on apparel, accessories, or other retail categories, they may still be spending money within the mall ecosystem through restaurants, entertainment venues, and other services.
But that does not necessarily mean that mall traffic is disconnected from retail demand – as mall resilience may also simply be a reflection of the ongoing bifurcation of the U.S. consumer. Compared to the broader discretionary retail sector, malls draw from more affluent trade areas, giving them greater exposure to households that have remained relatively insulated from recent economic pressures. In this view, consumers are not simply visiting malls for non-retail activities – they are continuing to shop there as well. The combination of a more affluent customer base and an increasingly diversified mix of uses may help explain why mall traffic has remained resilient even as visitation across much of discretionary retail has softened.
While economic uncertainty and weak consumer sentiment are likely to remain headwinds in the months ahead, recent traffic data suggests that malls continue to occupy a unique position within the retail landscape. As malls increasingly blend retail, dining, entertainment, and services – and continue to attract relatively affluent consumers – the sector may remain better positioned than much of discretionary retail to weather a more challenging consumer environment.
A common theme that spanned across the post-pandemic period of the retail industry has been resilience. Each time consumers throughout the United States faced adversity, they seemed to come back even stronger, often defying logic and expectations. Revenge spending often became the norm for many shoppers over the past six years, even as consumers accumulated mounting debts, utilized buy-now-pay-later services, and faced steep price increases due to tariffs and inflation. It has led to the question or if – or when – consumers might finally reach their breaking point.
The answer to that question might just be revealing itself to the retail industry in real time. In the face of rising prices across retail goods, services, and gasoline – particularly since the outbreak of the Iran War – consumers appear to be finally hitting the pause button on retail visitation in a stark way.
This coincides with another sobering statistic regarding consumer sentiment. According to the University of Michigan’s Monthly Survey of Consumers, which tracks consumer sentiment over time since the 1950’s, the May 2026 sentiment index fell to 44.8 – the lowest sentiment recorded since the inception of the survey. Consumers are feeling the pressure in all aspects of life, and their outlook is bleak on areas like the economy and their personal financial situations.
Despite the somewhat strong start to retail visitation in 2026, partially due to favorable comparable periods against early 2025, since mid-April there has been a noticeable change in retail traffic, both to discretionary and non-discretionary sectors. According to the same consumer sentiment index, April stood at 49.8, which was down 4 points from March.
While visitation to the Placer 100 Index, which includes 100 of largest retail chains across the U.S., and non-discretionary retail categories are still showing slight growth year-over-year, discretionary categories have declined. At the same time, it should be remembered that this period is being compared to last year’s pre-tariff rally among shoppers, which may also be impacting discretionary consumption.
Still, discretionary purchases are a logical place for the consumer to begin altering their consumption, especially for lower and middle-income shoppers who might be disproportionately impacted by rising fuel costs. Even with value-based options – like off-price retail – anything that is considered a “want” vs. a “need” are being reconsidered.
Waning consumer sentiment and increased economic uncertainty can both spur this change in behavior, and with sentiment at a record low, it’s clear that shoppers are trying to save instead of splurge right now.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
We recently attended the 2026 National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago, and the mood on the floor reflected an industry navigating a more complicated demand environment than it faced a year ago. With gas and grocery prices ticking higher over the past few months, consumers are once again tightening their belts and scrutinizing every dining decision, leaving operators to fight harder for share of stomach against a wider range of food retailers. Yet despite the headwinds, the show also surfaced plenty of bright spots: some chains are still driving traffic gains through new products, sharper value messaging, and operational improvements – from menu innovation to loyalty and tech-enabled efficiency – that are resonating with cautious diners. The takeaways below unpack where the pressure is greatest, who's breaking through anyway, and what it all signals for the back half of 2026.
Placer’s visitation trends reinforce this uncertain consumer environment. Below, we show weekly year-over-year visit trends for the QSR, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining categories. After a strong start to February – partly the result of lapping the macroeconomic uncertainty a year ago amid the initial tariff announcements – visitation trends for the QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments have generally fallen year-over-year (YoY) the past few months. Meanwhile, visits to fine dining restaurants have generally increased YoY, with affluent consumers feeling more confident about the macroeconomic environment given recent stock market highs.
Even as caution returned to the consumer, several chains showcased at and around the show stood out as clear traffic winners through Q1. In fast casual, CAVA continued to look like the category's runaway story, posting 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth driven by a striking 6.8% jump in guest traffic – outpacing peers including Chipotle, which has been working through a "Recipe for Growth" turnaround after stretches of negative comps.
In the burger and Mexican QSR space, Burger King delivered a 5.8% U.S. comp gain in Q1 – its biggest lift in years – fueled by family-friendly SpongeBob and Mandalorian tie-ins, while Taco Bell once again served as Yum! Brands' growth engine, leveraging sharp value pricing, steady menu innovation, and a deep digital loyalty program to broaden its appeal across income cohorts.
Coffee was also a frequent topic of conversation at the 2026 NRA Show. Dutch Bros has now strung together five-plus quarters of traffic-led same-store sales gains and is rolling out hot breakfast nationwide. Meanwhile, 7 Brew has emerged as the segment's hottest growth story – posting eye-popping traffic gains and on pace to add more than 400 units in 2026 alone – even as Starbucks continues to navigate a turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol.
Regional QSR burger favorites are pressing their advantage as well. In-N-Out is pushing into Tennessee, Washington, and other new markets, Whataburger continues to extend its footprint outside the Southeast, and Culver's is rolling out a series of menu, technology, and experience updates aimed at sustaining the cult-like loyalty that has long set these regional players apart. In fact, Culver’s might be the story of the QSR category right now, posting same-store visits that ranked among the upper echelon of QSR chains during the first quarter.
One of the most persistent themes at this year's show was that restaurants are no longer just competing with each other for share of stomach. Grocery stores, convenience chains, and warehouse clubs are rapidly upgrading their prepared food offerings, and in many cases capturing everyday meal occasions that restaurants once owned.
Grocery retailers are expanding prepared foods and meals-on-the-go and positioning them as a more affordable alternative to both home cooking and a drive-thru run, while c-stores like 7-Eleven, QuikTrip, and Wawa have invested heavily in made-to-order menus, full kitchens, and even branded QSR partnerships that increasingly rival traditional fast food. Warehouse clubs are pushing in the same direction – Sam's Club, for example, is rolling out fresh, ready-to-serve meals – leaving restaurant operators to defend their turf against a much broader, and noticeably hungrier, retail food ecosystem. YoY visit trends for the QSR category have underperformed other food-at-home categories like grocery stores and superstores over the past twelve months, underscoring this meaningful channel shift.
Taken together, the 2026 show painted a picture of an industry at an inflection point. The tailwinds of pent-up post-pandemic demand have given way to a more discerning consumer, a wider competitive set, and thinner margins for error. The chains that are winning share are doing so with a clear playbook: relevant menu innovation, disciplined value, sticky loyalty, and operational investments that make the experience faster and easier.
As we head into the back half of 2026, the gap between the operators executing on those fundamentals and those still searching for an answer is likely to widen further. The pressure on the industry is real, but so is the opportunity – and the brands willing to keep adapting to where the consumer is actually headed should remain well-positioned to come out ahead.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie dominated the 2026 box office and drove a massive spike in theater visits – but the real story goes beyond ticket sales.
Location analytics as well as audience survey data from The People's Platform reveal how the blockbuster reshaped who went to the movies, how they spent their time, and where they spent their money afterward. Families with children made up a larger share of theater audiences, with theater trade areas reflecting broader economic diversity than any Q1 2026 release. The film also fueled a surge in morning matinee attendance and contributed to shorter average theater dwell times thanks to its family-friendly runtime. And during the first two weeks of the movie's release, the data shows an increase in post-movie theater QSR visitation as families extended the outing beyond the screening itself.
For the full analysis, read the article here.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
1. AI is raising the bar for physical retail as shoppers arrive more informed, more intentional, and less tolerant of friction – though the impact varies by category and format.
2. As discovery shifts upstream, stores increasingly serve as confirmation rather than discovery points where shoppers validate decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
3. AI-based tools can improve in-store performance by removing operational friction – shortening trips in efficiency-led formats and supporting deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
4. By embedding expertise directly into frontline workflows, AI helps retailers deliver consistent, high-quality service despite high turnover and limited training windows.
5. AI enables precise, location-specific marketing and execution, allowing retailers of any size to align assortments, staffing, and messaging with real local demand.
6. Retailers can also use AI to manage their store fleets with greater discipline and understand where to expand, where to avoid cannibalization, and where to rightsize based on observed demand rather than static assumptions.
7. AI is not a universal lever in physical retail; its value depends on the store format, and in discovery-driven models it should support operations behind the scenes rather than reshape the customer experience.
Physical retail has faced repeated claims of obsolescence, from the rise of e-commerce to the shock of COVID. Each time, analysts predicted a structural decline in brick-and-mortar. And each time, physical retail adapted.
AI has triggered a similar round of predictions. Much of the current discussion frames retail’s future as a binary outcome: either stores become heavily automated, or e-commerce becomes so optimized that physical locations lose relevance altogether.
But past disruptions point in a different direction. E-commerce changed how physical retail operated by raising expectations for omnichannel integration, speed, and clarity of purpose. Retailers that adjusted store formats, merchandising, and operations accordingly went on to drive sustained growth.
AI likely represents another inflection point for physical retail. As shoppers arrive with more information, clearer intent, and even less tolerance for friction than in the age of "old-fashioned" e-commerce, physical stores will remain – but the standards they are held to continue to rise.
This report presents four ways retailers are using AI to get – and stay – ahead as physical retail adapts to this next wave of disruption.
E-commerce moved discovery earlier in the shopping journey. Instead of beginning the process in-store, many shoppers now arrive at brick-and-mortar locations after having deeply researched products, comparing options, and narrowing choices online – entering the store to validate rather than initiate their purchasing decision.
AI-powered shopping accelerates this pattern. Conversational assistants, recommendation engines, and AI-driven discovery across search and social reduce the time and effort required to evaluate options – and this shift is changing consumers' expectations around the in-store experience.
Apple shows what it looks like when a physical store is built for well-informed shoppers. Given the prevalence of AI-powered search and assistants in high-consideration categories like consumer electronics, Apple customers likely arrive at the Apple Store with more preferences already shaped by AI-assisted research than other retail categories.
Apple Stores were designed for this kind of customer long before AI became widespread. The layout puts working products directly in customers’ hands, merchandising emphasizes live use over promotional signage, and associates are trained to answer detailed technical questions rather than walk shoppers through basic options.
That alignment is showing up in store behavior. Even as AI-powered shopping expands, Apple Stores continue to see rising foot traffic and longer visits thanks to the store's specific and curated role in the customer journey – a place where customers confirm decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
Some applications of AI extend trends that e-commerce has already introduced. Others address operational challenges that previously required manual coordination or tradeoffs.
AI can reduce friction and make store visits more predictable by improving staffing allocation, reducing checkout delays, optimizing inventory placement, and managing traffic flow. These changes reduce friction without altering the visible customer experience.
Sam's Club offers a clear, recent example of AI solving a specific in-store bottleneck. For years, customers completed checkout only to face a second line at the exit, where an employee manually scanned paper receipts and spot-checked carts.
In early 2024, Sam’s Club introduced computer vision-powered exit gates, allowing customers to exit the store without stopping as AI algorithms instantly captured images of the items in their carts and matched them against digital purchase data. Employees previously tasked with receipt checks could now shift their focus to member assistance and in-store support.
The impact was measurable. Sam’s Club reported that customers now exit stores 23% faster than under manual receipt checks, a result confirmed by a sustained nationwide decline in average dwell time. During the same period, in-store traffic increased 3.3% year-over-year – demonstrating how removing friction with AI can deliver tangible gains.
AI optimizes stores for different outcomes. At Sam’s Club, it shortens visits by removing friction from task-driven trips. At Apple, upstream research leads to longer visits focused on testing, questions, and decision validation. In both cases, AI aligns store execution with shopper intent – prioritizing speed and throughput in efficiency-led formats and deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
Beyond shaping store roles and streamlining operations, AI can also address a long-standing challenge in physical retail: delivering consistent, high-quality expertise on the sales floor despite high turnover and seasonal staffing. In the past, retailers relied on heavy training investments that often failed to pay off. AI can now embed that expertise directly into frontline workflows, allowing associates to deliver confident, informed service regardless of tenure and strengthening the in-store experience at scale.
In May 2025, Lowe’s rolled out a major in-store AI enhancement called Mylow Companion, an AI-powered assistant that equips frontline staff with real-time, expert support on product details, home improvement projects, inventory, and customer questions.
Mylow Companion is embedded directly into associates’ handheld devices, delivering instant guidance through natural, conversational interactions, including voice-to-text. This enables even newly hired employees to provide confident, expert-level advice from day one, while helping experienced associates upsell and cross-sell more effectively. The tool complements Mylow, a customer-facing AI advisor launched the same year to help shoppers plan projects and discover the right products, leading to increased customer satisfaction.
While AI alone cannot solve demand challenges—especially amid macroeconomic pressure on large-ticket discretionary spending—early signals suggest it may still play a meaningful role. Location analytics indicate narrowing year-over-year visit gaps at Lowe’s post-deployment, pointing to a potentially improved in-store experience. And Home Depot’s recent announcement of agentic AI tools developed with Google Cloud suggests that these technologies are becoming table stakes in this category.
As more retailers roll out similar capabilities, those that moved earlier are better positioned to help set the bar – and benefit as the market adapts.
Beyond improving the in-store experience, AI also gives retailers a powerful way to drive foot traffic through precision marketing. By processing large volumes of behavioral, location, and timing data, AI can help retailers decide who to reach, when to engage them, where to activate, and what message or assortment will resonate – shifting marketing from broad seasonal pushes to campaigns grounded in local demand.
Target offers an early example of this approach before AI became widespread. Stores near college campuses have long tailored assortments and messaging around the academic calendar, especially during the back-to-school season. In August, these locations emphasize dorm essentials, compact storage, bedding, tech accessories, and affordable décor – supported by campaigns aimed at students and parents preparing for move-in. That localized approach has been effective in driving in-store traffic to Target stores near college campuses, with these venues seeing consistent visit spikes every August and outperforming the national average across multiple back-to-school seasons from 2023 to 2025.
AI makes local execution repeatable at scale. By analyzing visit patterns, past performance, and timing signals across thousands of locations, retailers can decide which products to promote, how to staff stores, and when to run campaigns at each location. Marketing, merchandising, and store operations then act on the same demand signals instead of separate assumptions.
Crucially, AI makes this level of localization accessible to retailers of all sizes. What once required the resources and institutional knowledge of a big-box giant can now be achieved through precision marketing and demand forecasting tools, allowing brands to adapt each store’s messaging, assortment, and execution to the unique rhythms of its community.
Beyond improving performance at individual stores, AI can also give retailers a clearer view of how their entire store fleet is working – and where it should grow, contract, or change. By analyzing foot traffic patterns, trade areas, customer overlap, and visit frequency across locations, AI helps retailers identify which sites are truly reaching their target audiences and which are underperforming relative to local demand.
AI also plays a critical role in smarter expansion. Retailers can use it to identify markets and neighborhoods where demand is growing, customer overlap is low, and incremental visits are likely – reducing the risk of cannibalization when opening new stores. By modeling how shoppers move between existing locations, AI can flag when a proposed site will attract new customers versus simply shifting traffic from nearby stores, grounding expansion decisions in observed behavior rather than demographic proxies or intuition alone.
Equally important, AI helps retailers recognize when expansion no longer makes sense. By tracking total fleet traffic, visit growth, and trade-area saturation, retailers can assess whether new stores are adding net demand or diluting performance. The same signals can identify locations where demand has structurally declined, informing rightsizing decisions and store closures. In this way, AI supports a more disciplined approach to physical retail – one that treats the store fleet as a dynamic system to be optimized over time, rather than a footprint that only grows.
The impact of AI on physical retail will vary significantly by category and format. Not every successful store experience is built around efficiency, prediction, or pre-qualification. Retailers with clearly differentiated offline value don’t necessarily benefit from forcing AI into customer-facing experiences that dilute what makes their stores work.
“Treasure hunt” formats are a clear example. Off-price retailers like TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington continue to drive strong traffic by offering unpredictability, scarcity, and discovery that cannot be replicated – or meaningfully enhanced – through AI-driven search or recommendation. The appeal lies precisely in not knowing what you’ll find. For these retailers, heavy investment in AI-led personalization or pre-shopping guidance risks undermining the core experience rather than improving it.
Similar dynamics apply in other categories. Independent boutiques, vintage stores, resale shops, and certain specialty retailers succeed by offering curation, serendipity, and human taste rather than optimization. In these cases, AI may still play a role behind the scenes – supporting inventory planning, pricing, or site selection – but it should not reshape the customer-facing experience. AI is most valuable when it reinforces a retailer’s existing value proposition. Formats built around discovery, surprise, or experiential browsing should protect those strengths, even as other parts of the retail landscape move toward greater efficiency and intent-driven shopping.
AI is forcing physical retail to evolve with intention. By creating a supportive environment for customers who arrive with made-up minds, removing friction inside the store, offering the best in-store services, and orchestrating demand with greater precision, retailers are adapting to the new world standards set by AI. All five strategies focus on aligning stores with shopper intent – what customers want, how the store supports it, and when the interaction happens.
The retailers that win in this next era won’t be the ones that use AI to simply automate what already exists. They’ll be the ones that use it to sharpen the role of physical retail – turning stores into places that help shoppers validate decisions, deliver value beyond convenience, and show up at exactly the right moment in a customer’s journey.
In the age of AI, physical retail wins by becoming more intentional – designed around informed shoppers, optimized for the right outcome in each format, and activated at moments when demand is real.
If 2025 proved anything, it’s that the American consumer hasn’t stopped spending – they’ve just become incredibly selective about who earns their dollar. As we look toward 2026, success isn't just about weathering headwinds; it's about identifying the specific operational levers that drive traffic.
We analyzed the data to identify ten retail and dining standouts (presented in no particular order) that are especially well-positioned for the year ahead. From grocery icons mastering hyper-authenticity to fitness challengers proving that low price doesn't mean low quality, these companies have demonstrated a powerful understanding of their audience and the operational agility to meet them where they are.
Here – in no particular order – are the brands setting the pace for 2026.
When we pick retailers for our Ten Top list, there are some that rest on the edgier side and others that look fairly down the middle. Picking H-E-B, a grocer that has seen monthly visits up year over year (YoY) for all but one month since April of 2021, is clearly not one of the bolder claims. But consistent success shouldn’t preclude a retailer from receiving its well deserved kudos, and there are some unique reasons that H-E-B specifically needs to be included this year.
H-E-B exemplifies the single most important trend in retail: the need for a brand to have authenticity and a clear reason for being. The retailer understands its audience, and as a result, it’s able to optimize its merchandising, promotions, and experience to best serve that loyal customer base. This pops in the data when we see the loyalty H-E-B commands, especially when compared to the grocery average.
In addition, the chain has also embraced adjacent innovation, leveraging its existing fleet by adding True Texas BBQ to a growing number of locations. The offering not only helps maximize the revenue potential of each visit, it taps into the core identity of the brand, further deepening customer connection and authenticity. The strategy also signals H-E-B’s understanding of emerging consumer behaviors – particularly the increase in shoppers turning to grocery stores for affordable, restaurant-quality lunches. And this combination of expanding revenue channels while heightening H-E-B’s uniqueness should also carry over into the value and impact of its retail media network.
In short, H-E-B has not only identified a critical route to success, it continues to embrace channels that widen revenue potential while doubling down on foundational strengths.
In 2024, Michaels held nearly 32.0% of overall visit share among the top four retailers in the wider crafts and hobby space. By the second half of 2025, that number had skyrocketed to just over 40.0% – driven largely by the closures of key competitors JoAnn Fabrics and Party City.
And it isn’t just that the removal of competitors is increasing the share of overall visits; the rate of capture appears to be accelerating. In Q2 2025, visits rose 7.3% YoY as Michaels began absorbing traffic from Party City, which closed the bulk of its locations by March. Growth strengthened further in Q3, with visits up 13.1% YoY following the completion of JoAnn’s shutdown in May. But during the all-important Q4, traffic surged even higher YoY, suggesting that that consolidation alone doesn’t fully explain the gains.
While the tailwinds of competitor closures clearly help, there are other strategies that are helping the retailer maximize this wave. Whether it be NFL partnerships to boost the retailer’s Sunday role in American households, a push into the framing space with 10-minute custom framing, the addition of JoAnn’s branded merchandise to its offerings, or even a challenge to Etsy’s online dominance with a new marketplace – Michaels is making moves to take full advantage of their improved positioning. There is also an argument to be made that Michaels is the retailer best poised to benefit from the segment’s consolidation, given that it is also the most oriented to a higher income consumer among top players in the category. This could help unlock other more focused concepts and promotions, and better align with an audience now looking for a retail replacement.
Walmart is the dominant player in physical retail.
And they leverage this position to push forward new offerings that extend revenue potential while maximizing per-store impact. They are a pioneer in the retail media space and have been using their unique reach to push that side of the business forward. Add to that the fact that they have been among the savviest players in all of retail in identifying the ideal approach to omnichannel, utilizing their massive physical footprint to improve their reach via BOPIS and store-fulfilled e-commerce.
All good reasons for inclusion, right?
But, here’s the kicker - from a pure visit perspective, things are going from good to better. Between January and September 2025, Walmart visits were essentially flat year over year – a good position for a retailer with such a massive reach and such strength shown in recent years. Yet, since October, visits have actually been on the rise, with Q4 2025 showing a 2.5% YoY traffic increase and several weeks exceeding 4.0% YoY.
A retail giant with even more potential growth than we might have expected – and one that’s pushing the very strategies we believe are the key to future success? That’s certainly a reason for inclusion.
Including a department store again on this year’s list? It seems counterintuitive to many of the narratives that ran through 2025, especially as middle-class consumers continue to be squeezed financially. However, Dillard’s still appears to be an exception to the rule, with performance more closely aligned to that of luxury department store brands like Bloomingdales & Nordstrom than to its true competitive set.
In 2025, visitation to Dillard’s was essentially flat YoY – though the chain has consistently outperformed the wider department store category. Dillard’s stands at a unique point somewhere between a mid-tier and luxury department store, and that distinction may be its secret to success. The retailer continues to wow with strong private label offerings that rival and often exceed national brands, a diverse merchandise mix, and locations that often benefit from indoor mall traffic trends.
While Dillard’s lags behind the wider department store category, for example, in terms of repeat visitation and the share of wealthy visitors, these factors may actually create an advantage. Efforts by Dillard's to refresh its product mix through limited-edition capsule collections and new brand launches may be helping it attract a steady inflow of economically diverse new shoppers. And the ability to continually win over new segments without alienating a “core customer” could be a strength amid economic headwinds and waning consumer sentiment.
At the same time, a more diverse visitor profile means that Dillard’s can truly be the department store for many consumers, with a product range that strikes a chord with different shopper segments.
Department stores truly aren’t dead, and those who have found their reason to exist continue to garner attention with shoppers.
If the retail industry had a symbol for 2025, it was probably Labubu. The toy-and-collectible-turned–bag charm took consumers by storm in the second quarter of the year, and POP MART – the retailer responsible for bringing Labubus stateside – quickly became an overnight sensation. Visits to the chain surged over the summer at the height of the craze, while trade areas expanded as customers traveled significant distances to get their hands on a doll.
And although the frenzy cooled somewhat in early fall, visits to POP MART locations like the one in Tulalip, WA began trending upward once again in November 2025 as the holiday season approached, surging even higher in December. Trade area size also increased dramatically during the holiday shopping period, as consumers rushed to get their hands on the chain’s coveted line of festive blind boxes.
As demonstrated by the recent Starbucks Bearista craze, consumers are all-in on cool collectible items that make life more fun – a trend POP MART, strategically located in high-traffic malls popular with younger shoppers, is uniquely positioned to ride. During times of economic uncertainty, consumers crave small ways to indulge, and affordable collectibles that are cute, cuddly, and fun have worked their way into the American zeitgeist.
So, what is next for POP MART? Can it continue to sustain its momentum? It seems likely that Labubus are here to stay, at least for a little while longer, before the retailer hopefully strikes it big with the next “must have”.
When all is said and done, 2021-2025 will likely be viewed as a pivotal turning point for the U.S. coffee industry. As the country recovered from the pandemic, consumer interaction with coffee brands fundamentally shifted. With more employees working from home – bypassing the traditional pre-work coffee run – visit trends migrated to later in the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, industry-wide dwell times shortened as consumers renewed their focus on convenience.
This move away from the sit-down café experience placed significant pressure on industry leaders, accelerating the shift toward drive-thru and mobile order-and-pay options. This moment of friction also created space for drive-thru-centric challengers like Dutch Bros, which rapidly expanded on the strength of speed and menu innovation.
Among these challengers, 7 Brew stands out as a fast-rising powerhouse heading into 2026. Expanding outward from its Arkansas roots, 7 Brew has been strategic about market entry and site selection for its unique double-drive-thru format. And with a concept that resonates with younger demographics and a footprint adaptable to various geographies, the coffee chain has become a go-to destination for rural and small-town communities, while also maintaining solid reach among more traditional coffee segments like wealthy suburbanites and urban singles. Thanks in part to this broad appeal, 7 Brew is well-positioned for future growth, even as it faces stiffer competition in new markets.
It is no secret that most of the growth in the QSR space over the past two decades has been driven by chicken concepts. Chick-fil-A, rising from a regional chain to a national player throughout the late 1990s and 2000s, was the first to disrupt the burger’s stranglehold on QSR. Raising Cane’s followed in the 2010s with a model built on menu simplicity and operational excellence, earning its place as one of the largest chains in the category. More recently, hot chicken has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments – and Dave’s Hot Chicken is leading the charge.
No single factor accounts for Dave’s growth from a lone unit in Los Angeles to over 350 units today. Certainly, a wide assortment of sauces and flavor profiles has resonated with U.S. consumers who are increasingly seeking spicier products, while Dave’s 'rebel' brand positioning has successfully attracted younger audiences. And at a time when many QSR and fast-casual chains are abandoning urban locations in favor of suburban markets, Dave’s Hot Chicken continues to open predominantly in urban settings – a strategy that may prove advantageous as migration patterns shift back toward major cities this year.
With so much of the industry’s expansion driven by chicken concepts, it is natural to ask: Have we reached 'peak chicken'? While we are certainly seeing other categories gain traction – think CAVA – Dave’s unique product mix and edgier marketing should help it stand out, even amidst increased competition.
While many discretionary retail categories – including consumer electronics, sporting goods, home improvement, and furniture – are still waiting for post-pandemic demand to recover, housewares retailers have generally enjoyed solid visit trends in 2025. Although consumers may not be financially positioned for large-scale remodels, we are now five years past the pandemic, and many residents (many of whom still work from home) are looking to refresh their living spaces.
It may therefore come as no surprise that TJX Companies’ HomeGoods and Homesense brands had an exceptional 2025 and are well-positioned to repeat this success in 2026.
This year, we observed a behavioral shift among middle-income consumers, including a clear “trade down” from mid-tier department stores and other discretionary categories. In addition, accumulated housing wear-and-tear, the recent bankruptcies of value-oriented competitors such as Conn’s and At Home, and the enduring appeal of the treasure hunt retail model, have all reinforced the brands’ momentum. Taken together, these trends leave HomeGoods and Homesense poised for both continued unit growth and increased traffic in the year ahead.
With the heightened emphasis on health and wellness post-pandemic, fitness is proving to be a category with remarkable staying power well beyond New Year’s resolution season – even in an era of macroeconomic uncertainty. Whether it’s pumping iron, hitting the treadmill, or joining fitness classes, staying healthy no longer requires breaking the bank – for just a dollar a day or less, gymgoers can build strength and endurance, achieve their rep goals, and hit their mileage targets. And affordable fitness chains – those that charge less than $30 per month – are reaping the benefits, outperforming more expensive gyms for YoY visit growth.
Among this value-oriented fitness cohort, EōS saw outsized traffic growth in 2025, with both overall visits and average visits per location outpacing competitors as the chain expands its footprint. EōS’s motto, “High Value, Low Price,” appears to be resonating strongly – especially in a year when similar value propositions are driving momentum across off-price retailers, value grocers, and dollar stores. Longer-than-average dwell times at EōS provide another encouraging signal, suggesting that its amenities, including pools, saunas, basketball courts, and equipment assortments typically found in higher-priced gyms, are truly connecting with visitors. And since visitors who stay longer are more likely to return – and to renew their memberships – EōS is well-positioned to convert this year’s traffic gains into lasting market share.
Eating and entertainment are a match made in heaven — and by leaning into a subscription model that meets price-sensitive customers where they are, Chuck E. Cheese has solidified its position as a standout in the eatertainment category.
Nearly 50 years old, this evergreen children’s entertainment concept has stood the test of time and now boasts roughly 500 venues nationwide. Its perennial tagline – “where a kid can be a kid” – still resonates with today’s children and with the parents who grew up with the brand. After languishing for several years in the wake of COVID, the company turned things around with a revamped Summer Fun Pass launched on April 30th, 2024. The offer of unlimited play per month sparked a dramatic boost in customer loyalty, and the model proved so successful that the company extended it year-round with a family pass as low as $7.99 per month.
This strategy has helped sustain visit growth throughout 2025. Despite closing several locations during the year, visits to Chuck E. Cheese rose 8.3% YoY – well above the flat eatertainment average. And the company’s loyalty rates outpaced last year from August through November, indicating that the offering isn’t losing steam and that customers continue to respond enthusiastically.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlights that there is no single path to success in 2026.
H-E-B and Chuck E. Cheese demonstrate the power of deepening loyalty through authentic experiences and value-driven memberships. Michaels and HomeGoods show how savvy retailers can capitalize on competitor consolidation and changing consumer spending habits. Meanwhile, Walmart and 7 Brew prove that even in saturated markets, operational innovation can drive fresh momentum.
As we move deeper into 2026, the brands that win will be those that, like the ten profiled here, combine a clear understanding of their unique value proposition with the agility to execute on it.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
