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There are so many ways to say Happy New Year in Asian languages, such as “Gong Xi Fa Cai” in Mandarin, which means wishing you prosperity in the coming year, “Saehae Bok Mani Badeuseyo” in Korean, wishing you lots of luck, and “Chuc mung nam moi” in Vietnamese, with a similar meaning of wishing you a joyful year. Along with these auspicious greetings are traditional foods such as dumpling soup, mung bean pancake, BBQ beef, sticky rice cakes, and candied fruits. Within the melting pot that is the USA, one can often find an Asian-themed shopping center in which to partake of the festivities. In Westminster, CA, Asian Garden Mall is one of the largest Vietnamese shopping centers in the U.S. At The Source OC, Korean shops and eateries abound. In the Midwest, one can visit Asia Mall Minnesota, with a pan-Asian panoply of offerings.
Last year, Lunar New Year kicked off on Jan. 22, and we can see that Asian Garden Mall visits skyrocketed on that day (below)
During the summer, there is also a vibrant night market there, open from 7-11pm on the weekends. Finds include pork skewers and buns, grilled scallops, mini shrimp crepes, and sugar cane juice.
The night market takes place in the parking lot of Asian Garden Mall and draws accretive business. What would normally be empty during the Feb-May period without a night market becomes a thriving evening adventure during the summer months.
In comparing Feb-May visits (blue) versus Jun-Sept visits (red) below, the mall also draws from a much larger trade area when the night market is occurring.
In terms of festivities, parades and food stalls abound at celebrations like the Tet festival in New Orleans, which takes place this year on Feb. 16-18 in the Village de l’Est neighborhood. There will be fireworks and a dragon dance and of course vats of simmering pho, crispy spring rolls, and puffy fried bananas. In San Jose, CA, home to one of the US’s largest Vietnamese populations, a Tet celebration will be held in the former Sears parking lot at Eastridge Center from Feb 16-18. There will be a talent contest, a visit from Miss Vietnam California, carnival rides, and of course plenty of food booths and desserts.
One of the newer Korean-themed malls is the Source OC, which opened in 2019. While the majority of the food options transport you to being in Korea, there is also Italian at Il Fiora, Japanese at Izakaya Ichie, and Mexican at La Huasteca. One can indulge in Gangnam House Korean BBQ, Monday to Sunday shaved ice, and Cheesetella Japanese Cheesecake. We saw the Source OC dip during Covid like practically all retail, but it has bounced back and is now exceeding pre-Covid visitation levels. Besides the draw of the food, there is also an indoor golf-simulator, a VR experience, and a children’s playground.
Both Koreatown Plaza and Koreatown Galleria are long-standing stalwarts in the heart of LA, but as Americans of all ethnicities increasingly migrate to suburbs, we will no doubt see more shopping center options catering to ethnic tastes outside of downtowns.
The nation’s first enclosed shopping mall was Southdale Center in Edina, MN, a project that opened in 1956, by Victor Gruen, an Austrian-American who would henceforth be known as the “father of the shopping mall.” His original vision was a community hub with access to many shops as well as medical centers, schools, and even residences. This did not occur in the 50s, but three-quarters of a century later, many mall developers are re-envisioning malls to be places to live, eat, play, and shop as well as have access to essential services and to be that third space for community gatherings and celebrations. How fitting that another recent mall in Minnesota, the Asia Mall has been conceived as a reflection of the local community. It opened in November 2022, inspired by the desire for a one-stop pan-Asian mall to get all groceries as opposed to dashing around Minneapolis, St. Paul, Brooklyn Park, and Brooklyn Center to obtain the desired goods. Food and drinks are procured from various Asian countries, such as Vietnam, China, and Korea and anchored by grocery store Asian Mart 88. Dining includes Pho Mai, Hot Pot City with all-you-can-eat hot pot, Cruncheez Korean hot dogs, and Mochi Dough doughnuts. As part of the trend for including essential services, this mall also has a hair salon, insurance company, and travel agency.
It also appears the concept of one-stop-shop, be it for Asian groceries or for warehouse-sized purchases, is prized by the inhabitants of Eden Prairie who really value efficiency. Asia Mall does half the visits of the nearby Costco, which is impressive. Besides home and work, visitors of Asia Mall are most likely to visit Costco before or after a shopping trip (below).
How did off-price leaders T.J. Maxx, Marshalls (both owned by TJX Companies), Burlington, and Ross perform in last year? And how is 2024 shaping up for the category? We dove into the foot traffic data to find out.
Off-price apparel retailers typically employ a straightforward method: sell excess or off-season merchandise that would otherwise remain unsold at a discount, benefiting both shoppers and manufacturers.
This retail model has consistently performed well, as evidenced by the consistent growth in visits to T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington over the past few years. And despite the overall sluggishness experienced by much of the apparel retail category in 2023, visits to these stores continued to increase year-over-year (YoY) in every quarter analyzed.
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January 2024 YoY visit growth slowed slightly – perhaps due to Q1 2023’s exceptionally strong performance. But despite the difficult comparison, foot traffic for most chains remained close to 2023 levels while YoY January visits to Ross increased 5.5%, highlighting the resilience of the off-price sector.
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The demographic and psychographic makeup of a chain’s trade area – which shows the types of visitors who frequent the chain – can be determined by looking at the chain’s potential or captured market. A chain’s potential market is calculated by weighing the Census Block Groups (CBGs) feeding visits to the chain according to the size of the CBG, while the captured market weighs each CBG according to the relative number of visits to the chain originating from that CBG.
Using these tools to analyze the median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of the four chains reveals a divergence between the two TJX-owned chains T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, on one side, and Ross Dress for Less and Burlington, on the other. The median HHI in T.J. Maxx and Marshalls’ potential market is higher than the potential median HHI for Ross and Burlington – and the two TJX brands’ captured market median HHI is even higher. Meanwhile, the median HHI in Ross and Burlington’s captured market is lower than the median HHI in their own potential markets.
The variance in median HHI between the chains may have to do with differences in branding and product selection. Marshalls and T.J. Maxx tend to have the higher price points, with T.J. Maxx in particular expanding its designer offerings over the past few years through its Runway stores. Ross and Burlington, known for their no-frills approach to clothing shopping, have relatively lower price points – and may see more customers seeking bargains over high fashion.
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While an analysis of trade area median HHI highlights differences between the chains’ visitor bases, a deeper exploration of Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington’s trade areas suggests that the retailers also share common ground – specifically, their popularity with middle-income families. For almost all brands, the captured market share of households categorized by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset as “Family Union” and “Cultural Connections” was larger than the potential market share. T.J. Maxx, which had a slightly lower share of “Cultural Connection” households in its captured market relative to its potential market, was the sole exception.
All four chains continue to add stores to their fleets – Ross opened 97 stores in fiscal 2023, and Burlington is looking to expand in over 60 former Bed Bath and Beyond locations. Focusing on trade areas with diverse families, then, may serve Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington. And T.J. Maxx, which has been enjoying a resurgence of interest from younger shoppers, might consider expanding into areas that attract young professionals.
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Off-price apparel retailers continue to succeed despite – or perhaps because of – a challenging economic climate. Will their success continue into 2024?
Visit placer.ai to keep up-to-date on the latest data-driven retail trends.
With shopping center vacancy rates now lower than they were pre-COVID, we dove into the demographic and psychographic trade area data for leading Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls to understand who visited malls in 2023.
Diving into the demographics of the trade areas of the various mall types in 2023 reveal both similarities and differences between the typical visitor to Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls.
In all three mall types, the median trade area household income (HHI) in the three mall types was higher than the nationwide median HHI of $69.5K (according to the STI: Popstats 2022 dataset). But Open-Air Shopping Centers drew the highest income visitors, with a trade area median HHI of $87.8K in 2023. The trade area of Open-Air Shopping Centers also had the lowest share of Households with Children and the highest share of singles (One-Person and Non-Family Households).
Outlet Malls lay at the other end of the spectrum, with a trade area median trade HHI of $73.9K, the highest share of Households with Children, and the lowest share of single households. And the median HHI and household composition for the trade area of Indoor Malls stood between those of the other two types.
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Even though Outlet Malls tend to draw the highest, and Open-Air Shopping Centers draw the lowest share of family visitors (Households with Children), diving deeper into various family segments reveals a more nuanced picture.
For example, the trade areas of Outlet Malls do indeed contain the highest shares of the “Family Union” and “Promising Families” segments – defined by Experian: Mosaic as blue-collar families and young families in starter homes, respectively. But Open-Air Shopping Centers tend to draw the highest share of the more affluent “Flourishing Families” segment – perhaps thanks to the Open-Air Shopping Centers’ higher trade area median HHI.
So while the demographic analysis can provide an overall snapshot of the various mall types’ audience, diving into the psychographics can yield a higher-resolution picture of the types of shoppers frequenting each shopping center category.
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For the most part, malls – especially Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers – succeeded in exceeding or staying close to 2022 visit levels last year, despite the economic headwinds. And while January data indicates that the space may be entering a challenging period, there are plenty of reasons to think that the dip in early 2024 foot traffic is just a temporary setback driven by a unique set of circumstances. As the year continues to unfold, tracking visits in this sector will offer more insights into the state of the 2024 consumer.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
When we last checked in with the home improvement category, high interest rates and a cooling housing market had impacted visits to retailers The Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Tractor Supply. As 2024 gets underway, what might lie ahead for these chains? We take a look at the data to find out.
Home Depot and Lowe’s, two of the largest home improvement retailers in the country, command a significant share of the industry. The two chains experienced ups and downs over the past few years, from a pandemic-era spike in visits to a more recent slowdown as rising prices and slowing home sales led many would-be shoppers to rethink a renovation.
The turbulence in the Home Improvement space continued in 2023. In the first half of the year, foot traffic to The Home Depot and Lowe’s showed modest increases on a year-over-year (YoY) basis – but that momentum slowed into the years’ second half as home sales dropped to a six-month low.
Visit performance to these retailers may well improve in 2024. Should home sales pick up as mortgage rates continue on their expected downward trajectory, home improvement chains would likely see an increase in visits as new homeowners grab equipment for renovations.
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Analyzing median household income (HHI) of visitors to The Home Depot and Lowe’s, segmented by potential and captured markets, may provide insights into The Home Depot's stronger year-over-year foot traffic performance. (A chain's potential market looks at the Census Block Groups (CBGs) where visitors to a chain originate, weighted according to the CBG’s population. In contrast, captured market visit data reflects figures weighted by the actual number of visits from each CBG.)
The trade area median HHI tends to be higher for Home Depot than for Lowe’s in the chains’ potential markets – and the differences grow even more pronounced when analyzing the captured market. The Home Depot’s potential market median HHI stood at $71.5K/year – just slightly higher than Lowe’s $69.6K/year. But The Home Depot’s captured market median HHI was $74.3K/year in 2023 – around 4% higher than the chain’s potential market median HHI. Meanwhile, Lowe’s captured market median HHI of $69.0K/year was around 1% lower than its potential market median HHI.
The income disparity between the visitor bases of the two chains may provide context for The Home Depot’s foot traffic strength compared to Lowe’s – The Home Depot’s wealthier customers may be more insulated from the effects of inflation. And as inflation eases and demand for home renovations creeps up, Lowe’s may yet see visits tick up as its customers return to the chain.
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Tractor Supply Co. – another major home improvement chain – also offers a variety of products geared toward farm and ranch living, including animal feed and farm equipment. The company was a surprising pandemic winner, seeing its sales and foot traffic grow significantly as people moved to the countryside.
The chain's popularity has remained strong even as the pandemic-induced migration trends subside and the influx of city-dwellers to rural areas slows down. Visits to Tractor Supply remained consistently high throughout 2023, with only two months experiencing YoY foot traffic lags. Tractor Supply visits also outpaced visits to the home improvement category as a whole, indicating sustained demand for farm products.
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A deeper exploration of the three home improvement chains’ psychographic compositions indicates that Tractor Supply’s popularity with rural segments (as defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset) may be fueling some of its sustained visit success.
All three chains saw a higher share of rural visitors in their captured market compared to their potential market – indicating that rural consumers are particularly interested in home improvement tools and products. And of the three chains, Tractor Supply served the largest share of rural visitors by far. The share of rural audience segments in Tractor Supply’s potential markets significantly exceeded the share of these segments in the trade areas of Lowe’s and The Home Depot’s, and the relative share of rural segments in Tractor Supply’s captured market was even more impressive.
Lowe’s, which has bolstered its rural presence over the past year, had the second-highest percentage of rural segments in both its potential and captured markets – although its share of rural visitors was still considerably lower than Tractor Supply’s.
Meanwhile, The Home Depot saw the smallest share of rural visitors across all rural segments analyzed. The company’s captured market had just slightly more Rural High Income and Rural Low Income visitors relative to its potential market, and there was no difference between its captured and potential market shares of Rural Average Income consumers.
The impressive over-representation of rural customers to Lowe’s and Tractor Supply suggest that the rural potential for home improvement chains is significant – and chains that tap into the segment may see further foot traffic to their stores.
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The home improvement space has seen plenty of variance over the past few years, from the pandemic-fueled DIY highs of 2020 and 2021 to the overall slowdown brought on by inflation in 2023. Will visits begin to pick up again into 2024?
Visit placer.ai/blog for the latest data-driven retail insights.
How did Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club perform offline last year? Who visited the chains in 2023? And what does 2024 have in store for the space? We dove into the foot traffic and trade area composition data to find out.
The superstore and wholesale space performed well across the board in 2023, with leading retailers seeing consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth throughout the year. Costco led the pack in terms of overall YoY visit performance, followed by Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club. The wholesale clubs’ strength may be due in part to the chains’ attractive gas prices, which were likely particularly tempting to 2023 consumers looking to stretch their budget.
Visits to Target also remained above the chain’s 2022 baseline during all four quarters, and Walmart – which closed several stores last year – mostly beat its 2022 visit performance, with the exception of Q4 where traffic remained essentially on par with last year’s levels.
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Visits to four out of five of the analyzed superstores and wholesale clubs dipped slightly in January 2024 relative to January 2023, perhaps due to comparisons to a strong Q1 2023 performance or to post-holidays consumer cutbacks. But despite the challenging circumstances, the YoY drops remained minimal – so the softer start to the year is not necessarily an indication of things to come.
And in contrast to the subdued visit performance in the rest of the category, Costco foot traffic exceeded its January 2023 visit baseline – revealing the potential for the superstore space to grow in a positive direction in 2024.
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Analyzing monthly visits to leading superstore and wholesale clubs in 2023 compared to each chain’s monthly visit average reveals different consumer patterns for each brand.
While all chains saw their monthly visits peak in December, Target experienced the most significant holiday peak, with a 33.9% increase in monthly visits compared to its 2023 monthly average – more than double the increases of the other four chains analyzed. Target also saw the strongest August visit growth relative to its 2023 monthly average as parents and students likely flocked to the chain in search of Back-to-School apparel and supplies.
In June and July, Walmart’s relative visit growth exceeded that of the other four chains – possible thanks to consumers stocking up on summer supplies. And the wholesale clubs saw larger relative increases in November, as those chains’ bulk grocery offerings may have helped consumers shop for a crowd ahead of Thanksgiving dinner.
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The trade areas of all five chains analyzed included a higher share of Households with Children when compared to the nationwide average. But the two superstore brands – Walmart and Target – also had larger percentages of 1-Person and Non-Family (roommate) Households when compared to the nationwide average, while the three wholesale clubs had smaller shares.
So while average wholesale clubs and their large selection of bulk packaged items cater primarily to families, superstores seem to attract a wider range of shoppers, including consumers shopping for one and living alone or with roommates.
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Diving into the psychographic composition of the trade areas highlights additional differences between the various chains’ audiences.
The trade areas of Walmart and of its subsidiary Sam’s Club had the highest share of Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s small town and rural audience segments, including “Small Town Low Income,” “Rural Low Income,” “Rural Average Income,” and “Rural High Income.”
Suburban segments were more distributed. Walmart and Sam’s Club served a higher share of “Blue Collar Suburbs” while Target and Costco drew more “Wealthy Suburban Families” – and BJ’s Wholesale Club received the largest percentage of “Upper Suburban Diverse Families.”
BJ’s trade area also included the largest shares of almost all the urban segments with the exception of “Educated Urbanites” – defined by Spatial.ai as “well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs” – for which Target came out on top.
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The leading superstore and wholesale clubs performed well in 2023 as consumers relied on their bulk-packaging and value-pricing to stretch their increasingly strained budgets.
What does 2024 have in store? Visit the placer.ai blog to find out.
It only comes around once every 12 years, and for those born in the Year of the Dragon, they are considered to be the luckiest of the Zodiac signs. This year’s element is wood, and thus a Wood Dragon year can portend good fortune, action, and expansion. Let’s take a look at some Asian concepts, brands, and shopping centers and see if our Placer trends indicate whether they might be in for a lucky, powerful year.
Tea drinks, especially those including tapioca pearls otherwise known as boba have created billionaires in China, and global expansion means that you can get your fill of the chewy goodies all over the world nowadays. Some of the largest chains in the US include Kung Fu Tea, with over 350 locations; Gong Cha; Sharetea with more than 500 stores in 15 locations; Boba Guys known for their famous strawberry puree matcha tea latte; and It’s Boba Time, Happy Lemon, YiFang Taiwan Fruit Tea, and Boba Loca.
Tea has been an integral part of our global history. As a precious commodity, it was traded along the Silk Road, leading to increased transcontinental commerce. In American history, the Boston Tea Party was perhaps not so much about tea itself but about taxation and representation, but in any words, it was definitely a catalyst towards American independence. And now, thousands of years later, tea continues to be a tour de force for antioxidants, anti-aging, and an overall delicious base for a bevy of creative drinks. Economists often talk about the “latte index” - used to estimate purchasing power parity in 16 countries around the world compared to the cost of a tall Starbucks latte in NYC.
With the way things are going with teas, could a boba index not be far behind? We examined year-over-year traffic for some of the leading tea/boba chains compared to specialty coffee chains. Boba has seen gains compared to last year, usually at a higher percentage than coffee. Both beverage type chains have trended upwards in 2023, although coffee had a bit of a dip in the latter part of the year.
To be fair, one can often order a coffee at a tea store and vice versa, but there are certainly toppings and color sensations at tea stores that are uniquely suited to social media, such as butterfly pea, which is an intense shade of violet, or various vibrant toppings such as popping boba in pink and orange. In some creations, the tea is even dispensed with entirely, such as Tiger Sugar’s brown sugar boba milk with a deep caramel flavor, or their highly-coveted ice cream bar version of the drink.
For those wishing for an authentic taste of an Asian shopping mall experience during Lunar New Year, there are many options around the US including Chinese shopping malls in the west like Focus Plaza/San Gabriel Square in San Gabriel Valley, Diamond Jamboree in Irvine, Shanghai Plaza in Chinatown Las Vegas, and Great Wall Mall in Kent, WA as well as in the east like Tangram and New World Mall in Flushing, NY.
Of these malls, Diamond Jamboree is the most visited. It has local favorites like The Kickin' Crab, Hai Di Lao, and Pepper Lunch. For dessert, head on over to Meet Fresh, with its refreshing grass jelly or chewy taro balls or SomiSomi for the cutest fish-shaped pancakes and a delectable choice of soft-serve flavors like ube and sesame.
Next is Shanghai Plaza, which is located in Las Vegas Chinatown. At Shanghai Taste, one can slurp xiao long bao soup dumplings, and another favorite - sheng jian bao - which is basically the love child of the more well known bao zi (meat bun) and the aforementioned xiao long bao. Somehow, it manages to have the fluffiness of the outer dough with a burst of soup and filling inside. Add the slight crunchiness of a pan-fried base and your mouth will be amazed by the variety of flavors and textures.
San Gabriel Square, also known as Focus Plaza, is the granddaddy of San Gabriel Valley larger-than-life malls. Also lovingly named “Chinese Disneyland” it offers a famous restaurant Five Star Seafood, a 99 Ranch, as well as other restaurants and jewelry stores. It opened in 1990 and became the place where one could go to buy laserdiscs for karaoke machines, as well as buy delicacies like honey-dried mangoes or salted plums. Nearly 25 years later, it is poised for renovation as it competes with other Chinese malls in the Greater Los Angeles and Orange County area for hot new restaurants and bakeries.
Moving across the country, we have Tangram in Queens, NY. Who doesn’t love an Asian food hall, with its dizzying array of hawkers, smells, and bustle? Tangram opened its Food Hall in January 2023, with a mix of international cuisine such as Joju for Vietnamese sandwiches, Zaab Zaab for Thai food, and Na Tart for egg tarts. One unique offering at Xi’an Famous Food is their piece de resistance lamb noodles. Topped with melt-in-your-mouth lamb, the broth is composed of both cumin and chili, and the hand-pulled noodles offer you that perfect texture referred to as “qq” in Chinese, whose closest renditions for noodles in another language might be “al dente.” This food hall spans 24,000 square feet and is lit with neon to mimic the non-stop night market energy in cosmopolitan Asian cities.
Great Wall Mall in Kent, Seattle is another Pan-Asian shopping center, despite its Chinese-centric name. Anchored by a 99 Ranch market, it also includes Chinese and Vietnamese restaurants, a Korean clothing store, hair and nail salons, and home decor. Architecturally, the outside is flanked by a fortress-style wall that mimics the Great Wall of China.
Last, but not least, we have New World Mall. Another sprawling food hall awaits, with over two dozen eateries to choose from. The exciting part of visiting food halls is the ability to get to the level of regional cuisine. Whether its Chongqing xiao mian featuring spicy Sichuan noodles or knife-cut noodles from Lanzhou, one has the opportunity to try a variety of cooking styles, nuances in similar-sounding dishes, and basically explore an entire country through its diversity of tastes.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
