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Department stores across the country have been evolving to meet changing consumer wants and needs, and Macy’s & Bloomingdale’s are no exception. Owned by the same company – Macy’s, Inc – these two brands have been recalibrating their store fleets and experimenting with new formats.
We took a closer look at visitation trends to both brands to understand how they diverge, analyze their respective strengths, and explore what might be ahead for both.
In recent years, Macy’s, Inc. has focused on optimizing its store fleet, a long-running project that gained momentum with the 2023 appointment of former Bloomingdale’s executive Tony Spring as CEO. This change coincided with a turnaround strategy involving the closing of some 30% of the brand’s traditional department stores; the expansion of Macy’s small-format model; and the addition of more Bloomingdale’s locations.
And a look at foot traffic trends at Bloomingdale’s shows that the high-end brand is indeed experiencing an uptick in demand, making it ripe for expansion. For much of the period between January and July 2024, Bloomingdale’s saw YoY monthly visit increases, with only January, April, and July seeing YoY declines. January’s drop was likely due to the inclement weather that weighed on retailers nationwide, while the April 2024 YoY downturn may have been due in part to the comparison to an April 2023 that had five weekends. And though July 2024 as a whole saw visits down 1.5% YoY, a look at weekly foot traffic to Bloomingdale’s shows that throughout most of that month and into August, the chain continued to draw more visits than in 2023.
Macy’s, for its part, had a slower start to 2024 – with YoY monthly visits down through April 2024. But in May and June, Macy’s visit gap closed, with foot traffic just above 2023 levels. And though Macy’s also saw monthly YoY visits decline in July, the chain’s weekly foot traffic has remained at or above 2023 levels since the middle of the month – likely spurred by back-to-school shopping and sales.
With the upcoming holiday season expected to bring a surge in foot traffic, both Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s are well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities and potentially drive further growth.
Analyzing the median household incomes (HHI) of Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s captured markets shows how Macy’s, Inc.’s revitalization strategy is helping the company further diversify the range of options available for shoppers of all kinds underneath its umbrella.
Between January and July 2024, for example, luxury-focused Bloomingdale’s attracted visitors from areas with the highest median HHI of the three brands – $122.2K, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Bloomingdale’s affluent audience may be less prone to inflation-driven cutbacks than the average American, contributing to the chain’s stronger positioning this year.
By contrast, Macy’s shoppers came from areas with a median HHI of $82.4K, while visitors to Macy’s small-format stores (some 13 locations nationwide) came from areas with a median HHI of $78.5K – just above the nationwide baseline. By expanding its small-format footprint, Macy’s may succeed at increasing its draw among more average-income shoppers.
This income variation underscores the broad retail potential of each chain, ensuring that consumers can find options that cater to their specific needs across Macy’s diverse offerings.
Analyzing the psychographic characteristics of Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s captured markets can shed additional light on how the chain’s turnaround strategy may help it reach new audiences. Macy’s traditional department stores already draw a diverse mix of consumers. But the addition of new Bloomingdale’s locations will help the company make further inroads into affluent segment groups like “Ultra Wealthy Families” – which makes up a whopping 32.0% of Bloomingdale’s captured market. At the same time, Macy’s smaller-format stores will offer the company greater access to the more modest-income “City Hopefuls” and “Near-Urban Diverse Families”, as well as the upper-middle-class “Upper Suburban Diverse Families”.
Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s continue to adapt to shifting consumer preferences by focusing on their strengths in specific markets and among their demographic segments, and by expanding its small-format stores. With the holiday season approaching, can both chains continue to drive visits?
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Summer 2024 has seen fierce competition among fast food and dining chains, with many embracing limited-time offers (LTOs) to attract customers and drive visits. As restaurant price wars continue unabated, these promotions are proving crucial in keeping consumer interest alive.
We dove into the visit performance of four brands – McDonald’s, Burger King, Taco Bell, and Smoothie King – to see how their LTOs are driving visits.
On June 25th, 2024, McDonald’s launched a limited-time offer, allowing customers to purchase a McDouble or McChicken, a 4-piece Chicken McNuggets, small fries, and a small soft drink for just $5. Originally intended to run for about a month, the promotion was so successful that it was extended through August. Foot traffic began to trend upwards following the promotion’s launch, with visits during the week of June 24th up 2.5% compared to the chain’s weekly average between April 1st and August 5th. And foot traffic to McDonald’s has remained consistently elevated in the weeks since.
Like McDonald’s, Burger King has also been leaning into value-driven promotions, launching the "$5 Your Way" value meal on June 10th, 2024. And the promotion seems to be driving visits in a significant way. While weekly YoY visits to the chain have fluctuated throughout 2024, they jumped 3.8% YoY during the week of June 10th, and have remained consistently elevated since. Burger King, recognizing the power of the value meal, has chosen to keep the special running until October.
And following its recent rightsizing efforts, Burger King isn’t resting on its laurels. Building on the success of its $5 value meal, the chain also launched a limited-time, extra-spicy menu update on July 18th. This new offering appears to have helped keep visits elevated: After waning slightly during the week of July 8th, foot traffic to Burger King picked up once again during the week of the launch.
Tex-Mex favorite Taco Bell kicked off the 20th anniversary of its popular lime-flavored drink, Baja Blast, with a special "Bajaversary" promotion on July 29th, 2024, offering free drinks and freezes both in-store and on the app. The deal seems to have resonated strongly with customers, with visits growing by 12.3% year-over-year (YoY) for the week of July 29th. Daily visits also experienced a major increase – on the day of the special, visits surged by 17.1% compared to the YTD Monday visit average and were 5.9% higher than the overall YTD visit average.
The Summer Olympics were a major event, with millions of viewers tuning in to watch athletes at their best. And many fast food chains jumped on the Olympics bandwagon, offering discounts, deals, and limited-time menu items inspired by the event.
Smoothie King, known for its health-focused beverages, was one such brand with an Olympics special. The chain offered 32-oz smoothies for just $5 on Friday, July 26th, 2024, to coincide with the Olympic kickoff. The deal ran for one day only and fueled a significant foot traffic boost. Visits to Smoothie King on July 26th were 22.9% higher than the YTD Friday visit average – highlighting the effectiveness of well-timed, event-based offers.
For now at least, it seems that LTOs – particularly those focused on offering diners more bang for their buck – are reigning supreme in the fast-food space.
Will these promotions continue to drive foot traffic and maintain customer engagement?
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With Q3 2024 underway, we checked in with beauty chains Ulta Beauty and Sally Beauty Supply, owned by Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. How did they fare in the first half of the year? And what are some of the factors driving their success?
We dove into the data to find out.
Ulta Beauty thrived in 2022 and 2023, propelled by the lipstick effect – which sees consumers splurging on low-cost indulgences when times are tight – and by the post-pandemic consumer obsession with wellness. And though the beauty giant’s visit growth has moderated somewhat in recent months, it continues to see year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth.
Between January and July 2024, Ulta consistently outperformed the wider beauty segment, with monthly YoY visit increases ranging between 2.8% and 11.2%. On a quarterly basis, visits to the chain jumped 6.6% YoY in Q2 2024. Though some of Ulta’s visit growth can be attributed to the chain’s growing store count, the average number of visits to each Ulta location also increased 4.6% YoY in Q2 2024.
Sally Beauty Supply – the hair care-oriented beauty chain with more than 3,100 stores nationwide – is another beauty brand to watch this year. In 2022, Sally Beauty announced a store optimization plan that included the shuttering of more than 300 stores. And foot traffic data shows that the chain’s rightsizing efforts are paying off.
Comparing quarterly visits to Sally Beauty to a Q2 2022 baseline shows that after declining throughout 2023, overall visits to the chain have begun to pick up once again – with Q2 2024 foot traffic up 3.6%.
One factor that appears to be driving success for both Ulta and Sally Beauty is their unusually broad appeal. Analyzing the two chains’ captured markets with data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive and STI: PopStats shows that though there are differences between Ulta and Sally Beauty’s captured markets, both brands draw large shares of customers from across demographic groups.
Overall, the median household income of Ulta’s captured market is higher than that of Sally Beauty – $78.6K, compared to $67.1K. Ulta’s distinct mix of prestige and budget products is especially likely to draw Wealthy Suburban Families, while Sally Beauty’s offerings hold special appeal for Small Towns.
But both brands’ captured markets include higher-than-average shares of the Blue Collar Suburbs and Near-Urban Diverse Families segment groups – showing that despite their differences, Ulta and Sally Beauty both boast diverse customer bases.
Still, visitors interact with the two beauty chains differently. During the 12-month period ending in July 2024, some 32.1% of visits to Sally Beauty lasted less than 10 minutes – compared to just 15.3% of visits to Ulta.
Sally Beauty’s far greater share of visits under ten minutes may be partly a result of its hair-focused product mix. In Q2 2024, some 64.8% of Sally Beauty’s net sales were in the hair color and care segments, while just 8.1% were in skincare and cosmetics. Ulta’s offerings, by contrast, are very much centered on cosmetics. And while shoppers buying hair care products may be more likely to take advantage of options like BOPIS (buy online, pick up in-store), those on the hunt for makeup may be more intent on trying out products and browsing in-store. Beauty professionals, who make up a larger share of Sally Beauty’s customer base than that of Ulta’s, may also be more inclined to use this service.
On the flip side, Ulta drew a much higher share of extended visits (30+ minutes) during the analyzed period – 31.8%, compared to 20.7% for Sally Beauty. In addition to browsing the aisles and trying new products, many Ulta customers likely remain longer in-store to avail themselves of the chain’s varied in-store salon services.
Ulta and Sally Beauty have different offerings – and serve different customer bases. But the success and broad appeal of both brands shows that in the beauty space of 2024, there’s plenty of room at the top.
For more data-driven insights, visit Placer.ai.
Discount & dollar stores had a strong Q2 2024, as consumers continued to prioritize value amid persistent high prices. We dove into the data for category leaders Dollar General and Dollar Tree to take a closer look at the drivers of these chains’ most recent success.
Dollar General – the nation’s largest dollar store player – opened nearly 200 stores last quarter, surpassing 20,000 U.S. locations. And Dollar Tree, the second-biggest dollar store chain by real estate footprint, stands at over 8,300 locations, including more than 100 new additions in the first months of 2024.
These chains’ significant fleet expansions continue to fuel foot traffic growth. Both Dollar General and Dollar Tree saw consistently positive YoY visit growth during the first seven months of 2024. Only in April 2024 did Dollar Tree’s YoY foot traffic appear to falter, likely as a result of decreased YoY demand for its traditional holiday merch due to an Easter calendar shift.
On a quarterly basis, YoY visits to Dollar General and Dollar Tree in Q2 2024 rose 13.1% and 8.4%, respectively. Over the same period, the two chains also experienced YoY increases in the average number of visits to each of their locations (10.3% for Dollar General and 3.7% for Dollar Tree), indicating that visits to individual stores remained robust as the brands grew.
And both brands plan on continuing to expand in the near future. Dollar General expects to open a total of 730 new stores in 2024, while Dollar Tree announced the takeover of 170 99 Cents Only Stores to complement the banner’s other openings. These strategic initiatives should continue to drive foot traffic gains for both brands in the coming months.
What’s behind Dollar General and Dollar Tree’s visit success? A look at changes in visitor interaction with the two chains suggests that for both dollar leaders, rising customer loyalty has played an important role.
Since July 2022, the share of visitors frequenting the two brands on a regular basis has been on an upward trajectory. In July 2024, 35.5% of Dollar General visitors frequented the chain at least three times during the month – up from 34.1% in July 2022. This increase in visitor frequency may be due in part to Dollar General’s inroads into the grocery space – giving consumers even more of a reason to visit the chain for daily essentials on a regular basis.
And though Dollar Tree’s somewhat more modest fleet drives a slightly smaller share of repeat visitors, it too has seen an increase in frequent visitors while investing in diversified offerings at various price-points – including consumables. In July 2024, 16.6% of Dollar Tree’s visitors also visited the chain at least three times, up from 13.9% in July 2022.
For both chains, visitor frequency is driven in part by seasonality, with loyalty upticks in December and May, likely driven by holiday season and Mother’s Day shoppers. Still, Dollar Tree, which remains a more traditional dollar store than Dollar General, experiences more dramatic seasonal visit peaks than its prime competitor – and its loyalty also follows a more pronounced seasonal pattern.
With the biggest players in the discount & dollar category seemingly going strong, will the second half of 2024 bring even more success to this retail space?
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Midway through 2024, foot traffic to Lowe’s and Home Depot – the leaders in the home improvement space – is climbing. What’s driving these retailers’ recent visit growth? We dove into the data to find out.
After a meteoric rise in foot traffic during the pandemic, the home improvement segment has experienced a turbulent few years – one of the primary reasons being a cool housing market that has curbed demand for projects. But after a significant period of consistent YoY visit gaps, visits to Lowe’s and Home Depot in 2024 appear to be matching and even slightly surpassing 2023 levels.
Between Q3 2023 and Q2 2024, Lowe’s and Home Depot both saw their YoY visit gaps gradually narrow and then close – finishing out Q2 with modest YoY gains. This turnaround may have been partly due to modest lifts in new home sales at the start of 2024 compared to 2023 – spurring an uptick in home improvement projects in the following months.
And though YoY visits to both retailers experienced a decline in July 2024 – perhaps due to May and June’s YoY declines in new and existing home sales – recent indications that the housing market may be heating up may bode well for the home improvement category in the second half of 2024 and beyond.
In addition to an increase in YoY visits, the resurgence of cross-shopping behavior between Home Depot and Lowe’s further suggests that a turnaround may be unfolding in the home improvement space. Location analytics shows that during recent home improvement booms, cross shopping between the two retailers was common, perhaps as judicious consumers taking on large projects looked to explore their options.
In Q2 of 2020 and 2021 – periods of strong foot traffic for both retailers – a large share of Lowe’s visitors also visited Home Depot. And although Lowe’s maintains a smaller retail footprint than Home Depot, many of Home Depot’s visitors visited a Lowe’s store as well.
But in the years that followed, economic headwinds led many consumers to defer their projects, and cross-shopping behavior began to moderate. In Q2 2023, only 48.8% of visitors to Lowe’s also visited Home Depot, and just 44.8% of Home Depot’s visitors visited Lowe’s.
However, in Q2 2024, consumers’ home improvement cross-shopping showed signs of a potential change of course. During the period, cross shopping between the brands climbed to 51.5% for Lowe’s and 45.7% for Home Depot. A return to in-store comparison shopping could mean that consumers are again taking on higher-stakes home improvement projects, which justify a visit to both retailers.
After an extended period of YoY visit gaps, foot traffic to the home improvement leaders is on the rise. Will Lowe’s and Home Depot continue to build on these positive visitation trends?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
With H2 2024 underway, we took a look at the foot traffic performance of superstores Walmart and Target, and membership warehouse clubs BJ’s Wholesale Club, Sam’s Club, and Costco. How did foot traffic compare to 2023’s visitation patterns? And what special events helped propel visits?
Superstores have been thriving – with YoY visits to retail giants Walmart and Target elevated consistently since May 2024. And though Target had a slower start to the year, YoY foot traffic to the chain picked up in Q2, and the retailer has been flourishing since. (Target and Walmart's April 2024 YoY foot traffic drops are likely attributable in part to calendar shifts: April 2023 had one more weekend than April 2024 – and one of them was Easter.)
Membership warehouse clubs have been faring even better, with Costco leading the pack in Q2. BJ’s and Sam’s Club also experienced strong visit growth, with July visits elevated by 5.6% YoY for both brands.
A closer look at the baseline change in quarterly visits since Q2 2019 further highlights the strong positioning of superstores and wholesale clubs in 2024. All five retailers drew more visits in Q2 2024 than they did pre-pandemic (Q2 2019).
But these visit increases have not been equally distributed across the retailers: While all of them experienced growth relative to a Q2 2019 baseline, membership warehouse visits have been outpacing those of superstores on a consistent basis since Q1 2023. As prime destinations for inexpensive, bulk buying, the segment has likely been buoyed by families and younger consumers seeking ways to save money on groceries and other basics amid high prices.
But superstores have also been having a moment. And one factor which may have contributed to Target’s Q2 2024 turnaround is its doubling down on loyalty: In April 2024, the chain revamped its Target Circle Rewards, adding, among other things, a new paid tier called Target Circle 360.
A key benefit of Target’s loyalty program, which is free to join for the regular tiers, is access to deep discounts during Target Circle Week. This year, the big sales event took place between July 7th and 13th – and examining foot traffic trends to the chain reveals that the promotion fueled a major visit boost: During the week of July 8th, weekly visits to Target were the highest they’ve been since the start of the year, and 6.8% higher than 2024’s weekly visit average. This year’s Circle Week visits also outperformed last year’s by 8.7%.
This demonstrates how the revamped loyalty program and exclusive sales events are successfully driving more customers to Target stores. And other retailers are taking note, with Walmart debuting its own major summer sales events and Costco and Sam’s Club battling it out for the most affordable prices – a major win for shoppers nationwide.
Superstores enjoyed elevated visitation patterns in Q2 2024. Will the superstore and wholesale club price wars continue? And with back-to-school shopping well underway, and the holiday shopping season quickly approaching, how will these retailers continue to perform?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
