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Pacsun has seen its fair share of challenges in its more than forty years of business. Now, the brand is entering a new phase of growth, with a major brick-and-mortar expansion alongside concrete steps to engage Gen Z consumers. We dove into the data for several Pacsun locations outperforming their host malls to understand what a growing footprint could mean for shopping centers and how the brand is connecting with young consumers online and off.
Pacsun has faced its share of challenges over the years. More recently, however, the legacy brand and mall staple appears to be in the midst of a renaissance – with plans to further expand its domestic brick-and-mortar footprint in 2026.
Foot traffic data for several Pacsun locations that experienced notable foot traffic growth in 2025 suggests that the brand’s stores have the potential to help drive traffic to the shopping centers that host them. At The Promenade Shops at Centerra in Colorado, visits to Pacsun rose 35.7% YoY in 2025, significantly outpacing the -5.5% visit gap of the mall as a whole.
Psychographic segmentation suggests that beyond driving visits, these locations also help attract key young demographics to the mall.
At Winter Garden Village, for example, the Gen Z-aligned "Young Professionals" segment accounted for 19.4% of the Pacsun store’s captured market, compared to the mall’s 16.2% share of the segment.
These locations may be an example of how Pacsun’s physical retail presence works together with its social-sales strategy to engage with a younger generation; driving traffic, in part, by serving as spaces to experience products seen on trusted social channels or at creator-led events.
And Pacsun appears firmly committed to its younger audience as part of its wider strategy. Although the brand looks to move upmarket, the latest example of which being the launch of a premium eyewear collection, by maintaining what it views as an accessible price point, Pacsun remains focused on consumers yet to reach their peak earning years.
Pacsun’s ability to drive traffic from this key demographic makes it an attractive potential tenant for malls looking to build long-term loyalty among younger audiences with earning potential.
The Pacsun model demonstrates that physical retail remains a critical touchpoint for brands investing in digital engagement and younger audiences. With plans to open dozens of new locations over the next few years, Pacsun emerges as a compelling tenant for shopping centers seeking cultural relevance and the next generation of consumers.
For more retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The grocery category saw notable shifts in consumer behavior in 2025 as inflation and tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on household budgets. Analyzing consumer traffic trends for several grocery formats – including wholesale clubs, which serve as primary grocery destinations for many families – reveals how evolving consumer preferences shaped grocery performance in 2025 and highlights key lessons for grocers and CPG companies heading into 2026.
Like many retail categories in 2025, grocery was shaped by continued economic uncertainty and value-seeking behavior. But AI-powered location analytics shows that consumers also prioritized quality when forming a value perception in the grocery space.
The graph below shows that grocery visits increased across formats, likely reflecting consumers’ shift toward more meals at home as a way to save money in a persistently inflationary environment.
Fresh format grocers posted the strongest year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, perhaps due to their selection of prepared foods and salad bars as an alternative to eating out, as well as their emphasis on health and wellness – an emerging priority among grocery shoppers. Meanwhile, value grocers and wholesale clubs, known for their ability to deliver savings, consistently outperformed traditional grocers in YoY visit growth.
These patterns indicate that consumers are increasingly weighing up quality and price in the grocery aisle, a trend that is driving the expansion of private-label offerings.
As consumers substituted restaurant meals with more cost-conscious options, grocery stores also emerged as increasingly important destinations for quick, convenient lunches.
Analyzing relative visit share between the grocery category and quick-service restaurants (QSRs) shows that between 2024 and 2025, grocery stores claimed an increasingly large share of short midday visits – i.e. visits lasting less than ten minutes between 11:00 AM and 3:00 PM.
And while some of QSR’s relative decline in short lunchtime visits could be due to discontent with rising fast-food prices among highly value-conscious consumers, it also suggests that a growing share of consumers see grocery stores – where they can pick up ready-to-eat items – as convenient options during the lunch rush. Traditional grocers saw the largest increase in short midday visits (from 15.9% to 16.6%) while value and fresh format grocers saw more modest increases. Notably, the share of short midday visits to wholesale clubs was unchanged between 2024 and 2025 (2.1%), perhaps since these chains don’t offer the same pre-prepared and small-package options like other grocery formats.
These metrics underscore the strong demand for on-the-go meal options and single-serving, shelf-stable products that both grocery stores and CPG companies can provide.
Beyond the lunchtime rush, celebration-driven demand continued to play a central role in grocery traffic this year. Like in past years, Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – was by far the busiest grocery shopping day of the year, with category visits up 80.5% compared to the 2025 daily average. Several of the year’s other busiest grocery days similarly fell immediately ahead of major holidays, including New Year’s Eve, Easter, Mother’s Day, and the 4th of July, as consumers stocked up ahead of gatherings with family and friends.
Leading up to Christmas, grocery shopping appeared to be spread across several high-traffic days rather than concentrated on a single peak; Christmas Eve and December 23rd had nearly identical foot traffic boosts of 57.9% and 58.0%, respectively. And even December 22nd – three days before Christmas – stood out as one of the year’s busiest grocery shopping days, with visits running 28.9% above average for 2025.
Some consumers may have made multiple “re-stocking” grocery trips in the days leading up to Christmas – potentially driven by the presence of out-of-town guests requiring ongoing food replenishment – or visited multiple stores to secure specific ingredients for holiday meals.
Grocers could leverage this trend by stocking a wide range of holiday-specific ingredients and rotating promotions that encourage repeat visits ahead of Thanksgiving and Christmas.
The grocery landscape in 2025 was also shaped by distinct shopping preferences across demographic groups.
AI-powered captured market data combined with the STI: PopStats dataset shows that singles – defined as non-family and one-person households – heavily favored fresh-format grocers, while households with children were most likely to visit wholesale clubs and value grocers.
Grocers and CPGs can unlock growth by tailoring assortments and promotional strategies to their target audience – emphasizing bulk value and price-driven messaging for family shoppers, while leaning into curated selection, prepared foods, and convenience to engage singles.
Several consumer trends shaped the grocery space in 2025 – including holiday visit surges, the prioritization of value, and convenient on-the-go meals.
How will these trends shape the grocery space in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Even as return-to-office (RTO) mandates continue to accumulate, December operates on a different rhythm – shaped as much by holiday flexibility and inclement weather as by formal policy. We dove into the data to see how office attendance reflected these dynamics this year.
In December 2025, visits to office buildings nationwide were 33.1% below 2019 levels – 36.2% below when accounting for working days – the widest year-over-six-year (Yo6Y) gap seen in recent months on a per-working-day basis.
But the softness appears to reflect shifting work patterns rather than a stalled recovery. Despite slowing from recent months, December 2025 was still the busiest in-office December since COVID, suggesting that the slowdown was driven by seasonal rhythms rather than any substantive pullback in office attendance.
December has long followed a different in-office rhythm than the rest of the year – and despite return-to-office mandates, many companies likely relax on-site expectations during the holidays, allowing employees to work remotely while traveling or spending time with family. Much like the TGIF workweek, which sees a consistent drop-off in office activity on Fridays despite RTO pushes, the December dip may simply reflect the solidification of a new post-COVID seasonal norm.
Local factors also appear to have impacted December office attendance. Miami saw a visit gap of just 10.9% versus 2019, followed by Dallas at 18.8%. As warm-weather cities that also see the highest Friday office attendance among the analyzed markets, both may be less susceptible to holiday-adjacent work-from-home behavior.
New York City, by contrast, recorded a 19.6% visit gap, likely weighed down by harsher winter weather and an early, severe flu season. And Chicago trailed the pack with a 47.6% visit gap, pointing to a sharper seasonal pullback that may have been amplified by winter conditions, elevated flu activity, and workers opting to travel to warmer destinations during the holidays.
The year-over-year (YoY) analysis further reinforces that December’s softness is seasonal rather than a reflection of a true RTO slowdown. Even after adjusting for the number of working days, nationwide office visits rose 4.9% YoY, and every tracked market posted gains.
That said, growth remained uneven across major cities. San Francisco posted the strongest YoY gains, even as it continued to trail most other analyzed markets in overall office recovery – reflecting an ongoing vibe shift in a city once defined by post-pandemic pessimism. And with the city’s AI-driven leasing boom showing no signs of slowing, that momentum appears likely to carry into 2026.
Elsewhere, YoY gains were smaller than in San Francisco but still meaningful, pointing to steady progress across markets even as recovery paths vary by city.
The data suggests that December’s softening reflects predictable holiday-season flexibility rather than weakening momentum. And with several high-profile return-to-office mandates set to take effect in early 2026 – and other employers continuing to nudge attendance higher through quieter forms of “hybrid creep”– the broader office recovery appears poised to reassert itself in the new year.
For more data-driven office insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Back in April 2025, I channeled my inner Peter King and made nine predictions about retail's biggest players in my article "All The Things I Think I Think About Retail Over The Last Quarter."
Now, with eight months of hindsight and fresh data in my rearview, it's time for a reckoning. It is time to examine what I got right, what I got wrong, and, most importantly, what I learned from the overall exercise.
Or, put simply, I guess you could say that what lies in front of you, dear reader, is my assessment of how well I think I thought.
Grade: F (Spectacularly Wrong)
What I predicted: "Buchanan did a wonderful job instilling an omnichannel foundation at Michaels... Buchanan is the right man for the job at Kohl's. But I do not envy Buchanan. Not. One. Bit."
What actually happened: Well, I was right that I should not have envied him. Ashley Buchanan was fired for cause after just over 100 days in May 2025 following an investigation that revealed he violated company policies by directing Kohl's to engage in vendor transactions involving undisclosed conflicts of interest. Specifically, he had a romantic relationship with a vendor (Incredibrew CEO Chandra Holt) that he failed to disclose while pushing through deals with what has been reported as "highly unusual terms favorable to the vendor."
The twist: This wasn't about performance. It was about ethics. Kohl's board found Buchanan guilty of serious misconduct, and he was forced to forfeit $15 million in stock awards and repay $2.5 million of his signing bonus. The company is now on its fourth CEO in four years, with Michael Bender (a retail veteran from Walmart and PepsiCo) taking the helm in late 2025.
The reality: Buchanan's tenure at Kohl's will go down as one of the shortest and most ignominious CEO stints in retail history. I predicted he'd have his work cut out for him, but I didn't predict he'd be fired before he could even start the real work it would take to turn Kohl’s around.
The Lesson: Sometimes the biggest risk isn't the turnaround. It's the person at the helm. And, fortunately for Kohl’s, the Street appears to be responding to Mr. Bender, as the stock price has appreciated by a factor of four since he took over for Buchanan in April.
Grade: A+ (Nailed It)
What I predicted: "Costco held to a position that many others, including Walmart, Target, and Tractor Supply Company, have not... for all intents and purposes, at least initially, Costco appears to be holding strong to its principles and doing just fine."
What actually happened: I was spot on. Costco's Q3 2025 results immediately following the decision by shareholders to vote down a measure to assess DEI risks showed 8% revenue growth, U.S. comparable sales up 7.9% (excluding gas deflation), and net income up 13.2% year-over-year.
Even more telling: While Target hemorrhaged traffic following its DEI rollback, Costco gained during the same period, and took many shoppers from Target I might add.
Flash forward to year-end performance: Costco's fiscal year-end results, for its fiscal year that ended on August 31, 2025, demonstrated sustained strength. Net sales for Q4 increased 8.0% to $84.4 billion, while full-year sales reached $269.9 billion, up 8.1%. Comparable sales for the full year grew 5.9% (7.6% adjusted for gas and foreign exchange), with e-commerce sales exceeding $19.6 billion for the year, up 15%. Membership fee income, Costco's profit engine, also reached $5.32 billion, up 10.4% over the previous year.
Most recent results (Q1 Fiscal 2026): The momentum continued into the new fiscal year. For the quarter ended November 23, 2025, Costco reported net sales of $66.0 billion, up 8.2% year-over-year, with EPS of $4.50 beating analyst expectations of $4.27. Comparable sales rose 6.4%, while digitally-enabled sales surged an impressive 20.5%. Digital traffic jumped 24% and app traffic exploded 48% year-over-year.
But what about the stock?: While Costco's business has been phenomenal, Costco’s stock price tells a more nuanced story. After spectacular gains of 49% in 2023 and 39.6% in 2024, shares hit an all-time high of $1,078 in February 2025. However, at the time this article was written, the stock has since pulled back approximately 20% from that peak, ending 2025 down roughly 6% year-to-date and about 12% over the trailing twelve months, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 17% gain over the same period.
Zoom out: Over the past two years, Costco’s stock price is still far beyond where it was at the close of 2023, when it sat right around $700 per share. The stock currently trades around $850-860 per share at a forward P/E of approximately 46x, which analysts cite as the primary reason for the recent underperformance as opposed to any fundamental business weakness (Target, for comparison, trades at a P/E of 11-12x).
The Lesson: Principles and profits aren't mutually exclusive when backed by operational excellence. Costco proved that standing firm on values, combined with relentless execution, membership growth, digital transformation, and an unwavering focus on member value can strengthen your brand and drive superior business results. Short-term stock volatility driven by valuation concerns shouldn’t diminish the fundamental vindication of the strategy.
Grade: A (Nearly Perfect)
What I predicted: "Sprouts has done a masterful job rightsizing its store prototype... The one driving an 11.5% comp in Sprouts' most recent quarter? It still has a lot more room to grow."
What actually happened: Sprouts absolutely crushed it. In Q2 2025, Sprouts delivered a 17% net sales increase and 10.2% comparable sales growth, and followed that up in Q3 with another 5.9% comp on top of a big 2024 Q3 comp of 8.4% The company also plans to open 37 new stores in 2025 and saw e-commerce sales jump 21% in the most recent quarter.
Even more impressive: EBIT margins expanded from 6.7% to 8.1% in Q2 and also performed nicely in Q3 at 7.2%, demonstrating that Sprouts is achieving both top line and profitable growth. CEO Jack Sinclair's strategy of right-sizing stores, improving differentiation, and launching a loyalty program (rolled out in Q3) is firing on all cylinders.
The only minor caveat: Growth moderated slightly in Q3 (comp sales of 5.9%) and Q4 guidance calls for just 0-2% comp growth, suggesting some normalization. But with 464 stores across 24 states and record numbers at its back, Sprouts is still positioned for continued expansion.
The Lesson: When a retailer gets the fundamentals right, i.e. store format, location strategy, and customer experience, that’s when lightning gets caught in a bottle.
Grade: B+ (Appropriately Skeptical)
What I predicted: "One should take the results of tests like these (Macy’s First 50 store strategy) with a fine grain of salt... As the focus wears off, tests like these usually revert back to the mean. And, the mean... won't keep the Macy's Day parade balloons afloat."
What actually happened: Macy’s ended 2025 on a high note. Not necessarily a Celine Dion-like high note but a high note nonetheless. In its most recent quarter (Macy’s Q3), Macy’s Inc. posted its strongest performance in the last three years, with comps increasing 3.2% and also putting its two-year stack at a respectable 2.0%.
The First 50 stores, aka the Macy’s stores alluded to above that have received extra special attention from Macy’s, have consistently outperformed the rest of the Macy's chain throughout 2025, posting relative comparable sales gains while the overall chain has lagged behind. So much so that, by the end of Q3, Macy's had expanded the program to 125 stores (now called the "First 125").
But here's where my skepticism may still be justified: The overall Macy's namesake banner is still bleeding. Net sales for the namesake brand fell 2.3% in Q3, while comps for stores slated to remain open rose 2.3% and those at revamped stores (aka the “First 125”) rose 2.7%. Comparable sales for fiscal 2025 at Macy’s are now expected to be flat to up to 1%, compared to the previous flat to down 1.5% outlook from the previous quarter.
CEO Tony Spring, to his immense credit, is right that the investments are showing results. The stores with enhanced staffing, better merchandising, and improved visuals are indeed performing. However, I was also right that 50 (now 125) is a long way from 350, and the "mean" performance of the rest of the chain is still dragging the Macy’s namesake brand down. The First 50/125 strategy may indeed be working, at least for now, but anniversarying growth year-over-year is no easy feat.
The Lesson: The jury is still out on whether tactical improvements can overcome larger strategic challenges. Macy's First 50 could end up being the equivalent of putting premium gas in a car that needs a new engine. Right now, I am only willing to go so far as to say that the new paint job, however, is making a difference.
Grade: A- (Strong Directional Call)
What I predicted: "Bloomingdale's, unlike Macy's, could be onto something with its small format strategy... The majority of the country has no idea what a Bloomingdale's experience is like."
What actually happened: Bloomingdale's absolutely shined in 2025. Q4 comparable sales jumped 9% year-over-year on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis, making it the strongest performer in the Macy's Inc. portfolio. The smaller-format Bloomie's stores continued to show promising traffic patterns, with year-over-year visit growth outpacing the general department store industry by a wide margin.
CEO Tony Spring has resisted calls to spin off Bloomingdale's, citing synergies, but the performance gap between Bloomie's and Macy's continues to widen, validating my assessment that "Bloomie's is a different story," both as an overall concept and as a smaller store idea.
The Lesson: Scarcity creates value. When you only have 33 full-line stores, a smaller format can be a growth vehicle rather than a cannibalizer, so I expect to see more of the small format Bloomie’s stores in 2026 and 2027.
Grade: A+ (Depressingly Accurate)
What I predicted: "Target's former beachheads are now all under siege... Something is causing the temperature of Target's porridge to feel just not quite right... Its new $15 billion growth plan is potentially a step in the right direction. However, I worry that, when one looks under the covers of that plan, all he or she will find is the same owned brand gobbledygook."
What actually happened: Target imploded. According to CNBC, the retailer posted negative comp store sales declines in every quarter of 2025, with Q2 comp sales down 1.9% and then down another 2.7% in Q3. Brian Cornell announced he's stepping down as CEO in February 2026 after 11 years, to be replaced by COO Michael Fiddelke, an insider who helped develop the current struggling strategy.
The stock has been decimated: down 49% over five years (while Walmart is up 118% and Costco up 135%), and down 30% in the past year alone. Analysts now rate Cornell as one of the worst CEOs in America, with 28 of 38 analysts rating Target as Sell or Hold.
My concerns about the $15 billion growth plan were prescient. It's heavily dependent on the same owned-brand strategy that's been failing, and the recent DEI rollback in January 2025 resulted in a boycott that, as we discussed above, cost Target shoppers this year.
Activist investors are now calling for an independent board chair, and the succession to Fiddelke has been widely criticized as more "entrenched groupthink" from a company that's lost touch with consumers.
The Lesson: Don’t believe the hype. When you're the goldilocks story whose success rested upon competitors going bankrupt and being one of the few available one-stop-shop options during the pandemic, eventually borrowed time runs out.
Grade: A (Excellent Timing)
What I predicted: "Wayfair's CEO Niraj Shah is as shrewd as they come, and he may just be betting on stores right as a big tailwind is ready to hit his back."
What actually happened: Wayfair announced not one, not two, but FOUR new large-format stores since my article. Atlanta (early 2026), Yonkers (2027), Denver (late 2026), and Columbus (late 2026, testing a smaller 70,000 sq ft format). The inaugural Wilmette, Illinois store, also appears to be what I would call a success. According to Wayfair:
Even more validating: The home furnishings industry is due for a rebound (at some point), and Wayfair's physical retail push could be timed exactly as that rebound crests.
The Lesson: Sometimes the best time to invest is when everyone else is pulling back, which is why Niraj Shah's timing and execution, I predict, will one day be viewed as a stroke of genius in the annals of retail history.
Grade: C (Directionally Correct, But Still Needs Improvement)
What I predicted: "Given that Niccol (Starbucks’ CEO) has only been in his role since September, these results at least have the aroma of an early turnaround."
What actually happened: This one's complicated. Starbucks' turnaround under Brian Niccol has shown signs of life but it's been slower and messier than hoped. For most of fiscal 2025, same-store sales continued to decline (down 1% in Q2 and down 2% in Q3). However, Q4 2025 finally delivered positive global comparable sales growth for the first time in seven quarters.
The bright spots: North America comps improved to flat in Q4, and U.S. comp sales turned positive in September and stayed positive through October. Its "Green Apron Service" initiative, Starbucks says, is showing early promise, with pilot locations seeing transaction growth and service time improvements and its August rollout also being correlated to the recent improvement in results.
The challenges: The turnaround required significant corporate restructuring, store closures, labor strikes, and China being moved to a joint venture. Revenue was up modestly, but adjusted EPS fell significantly for most of the year.
My prediction about Niccol "righting the ship" was directionally correct. By late 2025, momentum has been building. But it's been a longer, harder journey than the "early aroma" suggested. While some critics have also labeled him among 2025's "worst CEOs" for the ongoing struggles, that moniker, in my opinion, is incredibly harsh and unfounded so early in his tenure, and especially when Buchanan and Cornell have about a 50 furlong lead as we round the turn on 2025.
The Lesson: Turnarounds in retail are hard, even with proven talent. Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" strategy may in fact be working. It may just take longer than investors had hoped.
Grade: A+ (Absolute Bullseye)
What I predicted: "For the past six years, Sam's Club has sat atop my list as the most innovative retailer in America not named Amazon... The combination of a digital-first shopping experience and a growing percentage of younger people shopping in its stores means that Sam's Club is positioned to create the most one-to-one personalized shopping experience out there."
What actually happened: Sam's Club absolutely dominated in 2025. Q4 comparable sales (excluding fuel) were up 6.8%, e-commerce sales grew 24%, and membership income achieved five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth (up 12.5% in Q4). The numbers I cited, specifically in my April article, 1 in 3 shoppers using Scan & Go, 63% growth in Gen Z membership over two years, and 14% growth in millennial membership, appear to be fueling the fire.
For example, Sam’s Club announced ambitious plans in April to double memberships and more than double sales and profit over the next 8-10 years. Its Member's Mark private label brand represents 50% of its merchandise sales growth over the last two years. Its digital penetration is at a record high, with e-commerce now accounting for an astounding 18% of sales and expected to reach 40% in the next few years, a Sam’s Club goal that 1) if true and 2) if accomplished, will leave many retailers eating Sam’s dust.
Oh, and one more thing, Sam's Club also surpassed Costco in the American Customer Satisfaction Index because of its technology innovations like Scan & Go and its AI powered exit archways. And its new Grapevine, Texas store will serve as a laboratory to push the boundaries of this tech even further.
Everything I said about Sam's Club being "the retailer more people should be talking about" was vindicated. They're crushing it across every metric. You name it. Sales, innovation, membership growth, younger demographics, retail media potential. Sam’s has simply been hitting it out of the park.
The Lesson: Innovation doesn’t happen overnight. It comes from a hell or high water commitment to R&D year-over-year, something for which many retailers don’t have the stomach.
| Prediction | Grade | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Kohl's / Buchanan | F | Fired for ethics violations in 100 days |
| Costco DEI Stance | A+ | Revenue up 8%, vindicated completely |
| Sprouts Growth | A | 17% sales growth, margin expansion |
| Macy's First 50 | B+ | Working but not enough to save chain |
| Bloomingdale's Small Format | A- | 9% comp growth, clear differentiation |
| Target Struggles | A+ | Stock down 49%, CEO stepping down |
| Wayfair Physical Retail | A | 4 new stores announced, Illinois success |
| Starbucks Turnaround | C | Turning positive but slower than hoped |
| Sam's Club Innovation | A+ | 6.8% comps, crushing all metrics |
Overall GPA: 3.22 / 4.0 (B+)
Looking across these nine predictions, several themes emerge:
1. Innovation Without Execution Is Worthless – Target had digital tools, owned brands, and a PR-loving CEO. But without operational excellence and strategic clarity, none of it mattered. Meanwhile, Sam's Club, Costco and Sprouts all executed relentlessly on clear strategies.
2. Values Can Be a Competitive Advantage – Costco proved that standing firm on DEI didn't hurt business. It helped. While competitors retreated, Costco gained traffic, membership loyalty, and shareholder confidence.
3. Physical Retail Isn't Dead. It's Just Evolving – Wayfair, Sam's Club, and even Bloomingdale's showed that physical stores still matter, and especially when they're reimagined around experience, convenience, and brand differentiation.
4. Turnarounds Take Time – Starbucks and Macy's both demonstrated that fixing broken operations is harder and slower than expected. Even great CEOs need patience and resources.
5. The Gap Between Winners and Losers Is Widening – There's less middle ground than ever. You're either innovating and winning, or you're falling behind.
So, what do I think of what I thought?
I think I’ll take it. In this topsy turvy year of retailing, I will take a B+. The Stanford-educated Phi Beta Kappa in me is admittedly kind of pissed about the grade, but given that my average was taken down by a tawdry love drama not seen since a Friday evening with the Lifetime channel, I can still rest easy going into 2026.
More importantly, these predictions remind me why I love this industry. Retail is theater. It's strategy. It's execution. It's about understanding people, both customers and, let’s not forget, leaders and corporate cultures, too. Sometimes you get surprised (for example, who knew coffee would impact two of my predictions this year!), but more often than not, the fundamentals win out.
The retailers that focused on customer experience, operational excellence, and genuine innovation, e.g. Costco, Sprouts, Sam's Club, Wayfair, are continuing to thrive. The ones that lost their way strategically or culturally (yes, I’m looking squarely at you, Target), along with the ones in transition, like Starbucks, are showing that turnarounds are possible but that the road will also be long and difficult.
As we head into 2026, I'm watching to see if these trends accelerate. Will Target's new CEO make meaningful changes, or will it be more of the same? Can Macy's First 125 strategy actually scale? Will Wayfair's physical store expansion continue to exceed expectations? And more pressing: Which retailers will inspire my predictions for 2026?
Stay tuned. Because I don’t just think I think we're in for another interesting year. I know I know we are.
Limited-service restaurants faced a challenging landscape in 2025, with many price-sensitive consumers pulling back on dining out in favor of grocery prepared meals and brown-bag lunches. Traffic was harder to come by, and everyday demand softened across much of the category.
Even so, chains found creative ways to stand out. We dug into the data behind the busiest weeks of the year for quick-service and fast-casual restaurants to understand what actually moved traffic – and which strategies are most likely to help brands compete in what’s shaping up to be another value-conscious year.
Everyday value became table stakes across limited service in 2025, with $5 meals, bundles, and loyalty pricing no longer serving as clear differentiators. Yet unsurprisingly, freebies and truly memorable discounts still drew crowds.
The chains featured in the chart below all saw their highest weekly traffic peaks during promotions that felt distinctive, easy to understand, and clearly worth acting on. Some – like Dairy Queen’s Free Cone Day and Dave’s Hot Chicken’s Free Slider Day – involved no-purchase-necessary giveaways. Others relied on steep, attention-grabbing discounts, such as Whataburger’s Anniversary 75-cent burger and Pizza Hut’s $2 Tuesday promo, or culturally timed activations like Chipotle’s Stanley Cup–inspired hockey jersey BOGO.
For 2026, the takeaway is clear: Discounting still works, but the offers likely to truly motivate consumers are the ones that stand out from the everyday value they already expect.
Fortunately for restaurants, however, deep discounts and giveaways aren’t the only way to draw crowds - if they were, the economics wouldn’t be sustainable for long. In 2025, culture-driven moments came surprisingly close to matching the power of freebies, without the same margin trade-offs.
Take Krispy Kreme, for example. The chain’s annual National Donut Day promotion – including a no-purchase-necessary free donut and a $2 dozen with the purchase of 12 more – produced the chain’s largest single-day visit spike of the year (+219.7% versus an average day on June 6th, 2025) and helped push weekly visits to a yearly high.
But Krispy Kreme’s Back to Hogwarts collection which launched on August 18, 2025, generated a more sustained lift that nearly matched National Donut Day’s impact at the weekly level. While the campaign did include a free donut giveaway on Saturday, August 23rd for fans representing their favorite house, the data shows the surge wasn’t driven by the freebie alone: Traffic jumped 40.7% above an average Monday on launch day, compared with a 30.9% lift over an average Saturday on the day of the giveaway.
At McDonald’s and Burger King, too, pop-culture tie-ins dominated the promotional calendar. For both chains, the week of December 1st emerged as the busiest week of 2025, and also delivered the largest YoY weekly visit increase.
At Burger King, the lift came from the chain’s SpongeBob Movie Menu – starring the Krabby Whopper – launched on December 1st ahead of the film’s December 19th release. The promotion drove an 18.4% YoY traffic increase, with traffic – largely flat or down since September – remaining elevated in the weeks that followed.
At McDonald’s, momentum was fueled by a holiday-themed Grinched Menu, which arrived on the heels of the fast food leader’s highly successful Boo Bucket merchandise drop in October. The Boo Buckets drove McDonald’s second- and third-largest year-over-year visit spikes during the weeks of October 20 and 27, and the Grinch Meal built on that lift, pushing visits higher yet during the week of December 1st and sustaining momentum through the rest of the month.
The lesson here is twofold: Well-timed promotions tied to widely recognized cultural moments can still drive outsized traffic on their own, as Krispy Kreme and Burger King’s activations showed. But McDonald’s performance also underscores the value of sequencing – using one successful launch to carry momentum into the next.
Speaking of timing and sequencing, Starbucks’ viral Bearista offering, launched strategically just before the Brand’s iconic Red Cup Day, shows how well-timed promotions can compound impact.
Red Cup Day during the week of November 10th was Starbucks’ busiest day of 2025. But the week of Bearista (November 3rd) came awfully close – and delivered the brand’s largest YoY weekly visit increase of 2025. Just as importantly, the Bearista launch helped build visit momentum, setting the stage for what ultimately became Starbucks’ biggest Red Cup Day ever.
Consumers lining up to pay $30 for the Bearista also challenged another long-held assumption about QSR traffic in 2025: that offerings have to be cheap to deliver results. What makes this especially notable is that Bearista wasn’t tied to a movie release or external cultural IP. It was brand-first, premium-priced merchandise that still drove traffic at scale. And while not easily replicated, Starbucks’ Bearista success shows that scarcity, storytelling, and timing can unlock value beyond low-price promotions.
If you’ve gotten this far, you might be wondering: What about food? Don’t people still go to restaurants to eat – and aren’t craveable menu items supposed to drive traffic?
The answer is yes. Amid all the noise around discounts, collaborations, and merchandise, food still mattered in 2025. At Popeyes, the June 2nd launch of Chicken Wraps, priced accessibly at $3.99, drove the chain’s busiest week of the year. While wraps weren’t totally new to Popeyes’ menu, this rollout was framed as a value-forward, easy-to-understand innovation at a moment when affordability mattered – and consumers responded.
At Taco Bell and KFC, food-driven traffic spikes leaned more heavily on nostalgia. Taco Bell’s limited-time revival of Cheesy Street Chalupas and Quesaritos lifted visits roughly 8% above average, while KFC saw an even larger jump (11.4%) with the return of Potato Wedges and Hot & Spicy Wings. These weren’t experimental launches, but deliberate re-releases of proven favorites, giving diners something familiar and a reason to act quickly.
Together, these examples show that even in a crowded promotional landscape, menu remains a core traffic lever – and that clearly positioned items can rise above the noise without flashy add-ons.
The busiest weeks of 2025 show that even in a tough, value-conscious environment, limited-service restaurants still have multiple, proven ways to drive traffic. From clear deep discounts that rise above the noise to culture-led moments, narrative-driven merchandise, and well-timed menu strategies also delivered some of the year’s strongest results.
As QSRs and fast-casual chains look ahead to 2026, the data suggests that winning won’t hinge on any single tactic, but on choosing the right lever for the right moment, and executing it clearly enough to cut through a crowded landscape.
For more data-driven dining insights, follow Placer.a/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Indoor malls outperformed both open-air centers and outlet malls on a full-year basis as the only format to post visit gains during all four quarters – signaling a shift from recovery into growth.
Open-air shopping centers came in second – and though the format trailed indoor malls on a full-year basis, open-air shopping centers came out on top over the holidays, with Q4 visits up 2.0% year over year (YoY) and December traffic up 1.5%. This seasonal strength can be attributed to the format's sit-down and alcohol-forward dining options, which attract social holiday visits, as well as layouts that support quick trips and easy access to both essential and discretionary retail.
Meanwhile, outlet malls remained the weakest-performing format throughout 2025, with an annual traffic decline driven in part by a 1.1% drop in visits during the critical holiday season. This softness could reflect a broader shift in value perception. Price-conscious consumers may be increasingly weighing time cost alongside monetary savings, and long drives can offset the appeal of discounted pricing – particularly when promotions and loyalty incentives are widely available online and in traditional retail formats. To win consumers back, outlet malls may need to reduce the perceived time tradeoff by strengthening food and entertainment offerings and positioning themselves as curated, experience-driven value destinations rather than purely price-led ones.
Malls continue to resonate with a wide range of family segments, though different formats appeal to different household profiles. Across formats, higher-income and suburban family segments over-index among mall visitors. Indoor malls and open-air centers attract a disproportionate share of ultra-wealthy and affluent suburban households, underscoring malls’ ongoing relevance for consumers seeking family-friendly activities and experiences. Outlet malls, meanwhile, skew more heavily toward near-urban diverse families, reflecting their positioning as value-oriented destinations rather than lifestyle hubs.
At the same time, young professionals also play a meaningful role in mall traffic, over-indexing across all formats relative to their 5.8% share of the national population.
Across all formats, mall visitors also frequented mass merchants, big-box retailers, and off-price chains at high rates in 2025, underscoring that mall trips are often embedded within broader, multi-stop shopping routines rather than standing alone.
More than 70% of visitors across all mall formats also visited Walmart and Target at some point in 2025, and over half of mall visitors also visited Dollar Tree – underscoring how deeply mass merchants and discount chains are embedded in consumers’ retail lives. This indicates that malls face stiff competition as an everyday shopping destination. Malls that want to pull ahead in 2026 may focus on differentiating themselves from superstores by leaning into experiences and services that mass merchants cannot efficiently deliver – using tenant mix and programming to capture discretionary spend beyond routine retail needs.
Of the three formats, outlet malls showed the highest overlap with value-oriented and off-price chains, highlighting both their competitive pressure and their opportunity to redefine value. As discounted retail becomes increasingly ubiquitous, outlets can differentiate by extending value beyond merchandise—pairing sharp pricing with affordable dining, family-friendly entertainment, and experience-led programming that reinforces the outlet trip as a high-value day out, not just a bargain hunt.
Mall success in 2026 will likely hinge on maximizing the quality and purpose of each visit. Indoor malls are best positioned to double down on experiential retail, entertainment, and family-friendly programming that supports longer dwell times and higher discretionary spend. Open-air centers can continue to capitalize on convenience and dining-led visitation by optimizing for short, high-intent trips – particularly during peak seasonal periods.
For outlet malls, the opportunity lies in expanding the definition of value. As discounts become easier to access everywhere, outlets can differentiate by applying value thinking to food, entertainment, and experiences – turning the outlet trip into an affordable day out rather than a pure bargain hunt. Across all formats, operators and retailers that align tenant mix, layout, and programming with how consumers actually shop – across channels and formats – will be best positioned to capture wallet share in an increasingly fragmented retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
