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With their experiential vibes and treasured blends of well-known brands and local gems, high-street retail corridors are experiencing something of a renaissance. Iconic shopping districts like Fifth Avenue and SoHo in New York City, Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills, and Newbury Street in Boston are seeing steady influxes of luxury and high-end apparel brands. And economic headwinds notwithstanding, consumers continue to flock to these important retail destinations to shop, grab a bite to eat, and take in all the sights and sounds they have to offer.
So with the new year upon us, we dove into the data to see how major urban shopping districts nationwide fared this holiday season. How did visits to these corridors in the final months of 2023 compare to last year? And who are the consumers driving the high-street revival?
Over the past six months, visits to major urban shopping districts have been consistently higher than they were last year. And as the holiday season kicked into gear, the year-over-year (YoY) growth trajectory trended upwards – indicating a robust turnout during this holiday period.
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To examine some of the factors behind this growth, we analyzed the demographic profiles of the captured markets of POIs (points of interest) corresponding to major high-street corridors throughout the country.
The analysis shows that throughout the U.S., high-street shopping districts hold special appeal for affluent audiences – and for consumers belonging to Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive’s “Educated Urbanite” psychographic segment. This segment encompasses well-educated young singles that live in dense urban areas and make relatively high salaries. Given the demographic profile of their visitors, it’s no wonder that high-street corridors are finding success while expanding their luxury and high-end apparel portfolios.
In Q4 2023, the captured markets of Fifth Avenue, SoHo, and Times Square all featured higher median household incomes (HHIs), and greater shares of the “Educated Urbanite” segment than New York’s statewide baselines. Each of these quintessential New York City landmarks, however, drew a somewhat different visitor base.
Fifth Avenue, with its array of museums, luxury high-rises, and expensive department stores, drew the most affluent crowd, with a captured market median HHI of $105.6K – some 35.7% above the statewide median. SoHo, for its part, known for designer apparel stores, trendy cafes, and whimsical tourist attractions (Museum of Ice Cream, anyone?), attracted the largest share of “Educated Urbanites.” And Times Square, a top Big Apple attraction with broad popular appeal, boasted a visitor profile closest to statewide baselines.
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A look at the visitor profiles of major California shopping districts reveals a similar trend. The captured markets of Beverly Hills’ Rodeo Drive, Santa Monica’s 3rd Street Promenade, Hayes Valley in San Francisco, and Abbot Kinney in Los Angeles all had higher median HHIs in Q4 2023 than the statewide median of $85.7K. Of these, the captured market with the highest median HHI was that of Hayes Valley in San Francisco – an unsurprising finding given the relative affluence of the Bay Area. Not far behind was Rodeo Drive, with a median HHI of $113.9K.
Hayes Valley also led the charge for “Educated Urbanites,” with no less than 61.4% of the population of its captured market – nearly two-thirds – belonging to this segment. But all four of the analyzed high-street corridors were significantly over-indexed for this demographic compared to the California baseline of 13.1%.
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Looking at urban shopping districts in other major cities nationwide – including Newbury Street in Boston, Fulton Market in Chicago, and Walnut Street in Philadelphia – shows that the unique draw of these corridors for young, affluent singles isn’t confined to New York and Chicago. In all three corridors, the median HHIs and shares of “Educated Urbanites” in the captured markets
also exceeded statewide baselines – oftentimes by a wide margin.
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Evolving work routines and post-COVID population shifts continue to present municipalities and other civic stakeholders with significant challenges. But the revival of high-street retail corridors shows that cities are up to the task. How will major urban shopping districts fare in the new year? And how will their audiences continue to evolve?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail foot traffic analyses to find out.
How did the brick-and-mortar divisions of Walmart, Target, and other leading retailers perform this holiday season? Which days drove the most visits, and how did foot traffic performance this year compare to 2022? We dove into the data to find out.
Looking at daily visits to Target, Walmart, mid-tier department stores (including Macy’s, JCPenney, Kohl’s Belk, and Dillard’s), luxury department stores (including Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, Bloomingdale’s, and Nordstrom) and Best Buy reveals several common trends.
In all cases, retail visits began to creep up over the days leading up to Thanksgiving (Monday through Wednesday) as consumers took advantage of early Black Friday discounts. And the visit increase on Black Friday 2023 relative to the Q4 daily average was larger than in 2022 – perhaps thanks to budget-conscious consumers holding out for the steep discounts offered the day after Thanksgiving. The Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and Super Saturday spikes were also particularly pronounced in 2023, likely thanks to the combination of both retail events falling on the same day this year.
All retailers and retail segments analyzed also saw smaller surges on Boxing Day (December 26th) 2023 when compared to 2022, likely due to calendar differences. Christmas fell on a Sunday in 2022, so December 26th was declared a federal holiday in lieu of December 25th, and many private-sector employers likely gave time off as well – giving consumers the opportunity to hit the stores and enjoy after-Christmas sales. But Boxing Day still drove visit peaks across the board in 2023 (albeit not smaller peaks than in 2022) – indicating that Boxing Day is now a U.S. phenomenon as well.
December 27th, 28th, and 29th saw a greater increase relative to the daily Q4 average in 2023 compared to 2022, culminating in a larger New Years Eve Eve (December 30th) spike. The December 30th surge may be because this year’s December 30th fell on a Saturday, which is a major shopping day in its own right. But the increase in the days prior to New Years Eve Eve, when after-Christmas sales were in full force, could indicate that consumers are still particularly attune to sales events.
Still, despite the similarities across retail categories, foot traffic data also reveals some important differences between the segments.
Visits to Target began to increase in November 2023 relative to October as the retailer offered “Four Weeks of Early Black Friday Deals,” starting October 29th. And like the other categories analyzed, Target saw its first small visit peak of the season on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving (also known as Turkey Wednesday thanks to the massive Grocery visit spikes on the day). Visits on the day before Thanksgiving were up by 21.5% and 22.1%, in 2022 and 2023, respectively, despite foot traffic on an average Wednesday tends to be lower than the Q4 daily average – indicating that “Turkey Wednesday” also holds retail significance for grocery-adjacent categories.
Visits then spiked on Black Friday and returned to seasonally normal levels on Saturday. Throughout December, foot traffic continued to swell, with every week exceeding the previous week’s visit performance. The intensity of the visit growth picked up the week before Christmas, with Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday seeing a significant jump. Finally, Target visits on Boxing Day and the week following Christmas also exceeded the Q4 daily average as consumers took advantage of end-of-season sales and looked for festive attire for their New Year’s Eve celebrations.
The holiday season visit pattern at Walmart differs from those at Target in several instances. The superstore’s Turkey Visit spike was significantly more pronounced than Target’s, likely thanks to Walmart’s more extensive grocery offerings. Walmart also saw smaller spikes on Black Friday – perhaps due to the retailer’s famous “everyday low prices,” which may reduce the appeal of specific sales events. The Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday surge were also lower than for Target, but the Super Saturday increase relative to Black Friday spike was more pronounced, with some consumers probably visiting Walmart for last-minute groceries ahead of their Christmas dinners.
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Visits to luxury department stores (Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, and Bloomingdale’s) followed the general retail foot traffic trends, with larger peaks on Black Friday and on Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday in 2023 compared to 2022. Boxing Day 2023 drove a smaller visit spike relative to last year, but foot traffic was still 98.2% higher than the Q4 2023 daily average – indicating that the day is still emerging as an important retail milestone, especially for pricier segments.
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Mid-tier department stores (Macy’s, Kohl’s, JCPenney, Belk, and Dillard’s) saw more significant spikes on Black Friday and Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday, and smaller spikes on Boxing Day. Luxury’s department stores’ biggest post-Christmas visit peak was on Boxing Day, but mid-tier department stores experienced their largest end-of-year increase on New Year’s Eve Eve (December 30th).
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Best Buy saw the strongest Q4 visit spike on Black Friday out of all the retailers and retail segments analyzed, with foot traffic up a whopping 510.9% compared to its Q4 2023 daily average. The electronics leader also had the largest Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday bump – with visits up 188.1% – and Boxing Day boost, with traffic up 112.9% compared to the Q4 daily average. The visit surges over the holiday season’s retail milestones indicate that demand for electronics remains strong – even as some consumers may be putting off large purchases due to economic headwinds.
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The holiday season drove significant retail foot traffic across categories, with every segment displaying its own unique Q4 visitation pattern. How will these sectors perform in the year ahead?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
2023 was a year that forced restaurant operators to stay agile. Inflation was top-of-mind for most consumers throughout the year, resulting in a trade-down to value-oriented restaurants (or trading out to value grocery chains, dollar stores, and convenience stores). That said, value wasn’t the only factor driving visits, as new menu innovations (Taco Bell was a standout) or marketing partnerships (McDonald’s Famous Orders and “adult” happy meals helping the chain to outperform from a visitation perspective). While we’ve seen visitation trends for the morning daypart improve due to a steady recovery in return to office trends, we continue to see visits during late morning and early afternoon for coffee and QSR chains due to changes in consumer routines (not to mention a resurgence in late night dining). This has also prompted several chains to refine their approach to drive-thrus and pick-up windows (Shake Shack, Chipotle, Taco Bell, among several others). On top of these trends, we’ve seen massive changes in restaurant trade areas, driving many chains to rethink their expansion plans (including an emphasis on South and Southeast, which have seen population growth due to migration).
McDonald’s new exploratory restaurant concept CosMc’s sits at the intersection of several of these trends. The smaller-format (approximately 2,800 square feet, compared to 4,000-4,500 square feet for the average McDonald’s), drive-thru only concept opened its doors last month in Bolingbrook, IL, and is part of a “limited test run”. Its menu heavily focuses on beverages, including four “Signature Galactic Boosts” (featuring Sour Cherry Energy Boost and Island Pick-Me-Up Punch drinks), iced teas and lemonades (such as a Tropical Spiceade and Blackberry Mist Green Tea), slushes and frappes (including a Chai Frappe Burst and Popping Pear Slush), and coffee-based products (highlighted by the S’Mores Cold Brew and Turmeric Spiced Latte). While beverages are the focal point, there are also a variety of breakfast and snack food options, including a Spicy Queso and Creamy Avocado Tomatillo breakfast sandwiches, McPops (filled doughnuts), Savory Hash Brown Bites, and Pretzel Bites. In addition to the experimental fare, the menu also features a host of traditional breakfast sandwiches and beverage offerings.
Given the early buzz, we decided to check out the concept for ourselves this week. It was immediately apparent how much interest CosMc’s was drawing, as the drive-thru lane spanned roughly 80 vehicles upon arrival (which required use of a separate parking lot at the Maple Park Place shopping center, which also features Burlington, Ross Dress for Less, Dollar Tree, Aldi, and Best Buy stores).
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While its unique menu has rightfully generated a significant amount of attention, it’s also clear that McDonald’s is also using CosMc’s as a test for other potential drive-thru only locations in the future. Customers order from dynamic menu boards and cashless payment devices are used to expedite the payment process. Visitors wait at the menu board until their order is ready, and then pickup windows are assigned when the order is ready.
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Admittedly, it’s tough to make definitive conclusions about CosMc’s with the location being open for only a few weeks. Placer’s data suggests that CosMc’s saw more than double the number of visits that a typical McDonald’s saw chainwide during December 2023 (despite being open only since Dec. 7) and more than triple the number of visits per square foot (given CosMc’s smaller, roughly 2,500 square feet footprint). However, it’s also worth noting that CosMc’s visitation numbers would likely have been much higher if the location had additional capacity to satisfy the overwhelming demand.
Still, Placer offers some other ways to evaluate CosMc’s early trends. Based on 2019 Census Block Group data, CosMc’s trade area size (using a 70% of visit threshold) was just over 155 square miles during December 2023 (below). This is roughly 2.5 times the size of the trade area for the average McDonald’s location during December 2023 (62 miles) and significantly larger than the average trade area for most coffee brands (25-35 miles for more urban focused brands to 50-60 miles for more suburban/secondary market brands). In fact, the closest recent comparison we could find for CosMc’s was Raising Cane’s Post Malone and Dallas Cowboys restaurant collaboration, which had an impressive 264-mile trade area during its initial month of opening (though also helped by cross-traffic from Dallas Cowboys home game visitors from across the state of Texas). In some ways, there were also similarities between CosMc's and the Hello Kitty Cafe Trucks, which the Placer.ai Blog team wrote about last September.
Given that McDonald’s also appears to be targeting a younger demographic with CosMc’s, we thought we’d also look at the age breakdown for the potential market trade area (the population living within the trade area for the CosMc’s store). McDonald’s collective potential market trade area largely mirrors U.S. trends given its reach (the company has previously stated that 85% of the population in its top five markets–the U.S., France, the U.K., Germany and Canada–are within three miles of a McDonald’s location), it’s interesting that the potential market trade area for CosMc’s does skew to a younger audience, particularly the 22–29-year-old cohort.
By the end of 2024, McDonald’s plans to open an additional 10 CosMc’s test units, including locations in the Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio markets (notably some of the fastest growing markets in the U.S.). Does CosMc’s have the potential to be something more than a 10-unit test over a longer horizon? McDonald's has attempted to differentiate its coffee business in the past with its McCafe menu and standalone McCafe locations in international markets, but competition with Starbucks and others made it difficult for the company to distinguish McCafe as a standalone retail brand in the U.S. CosMc's is interesting from this perspective, as it may allow the company to build a brand more naturally and stand out with a younger audience (which appears to be working). It’s unlikely that future CosMc’s will look or operate like the pilot location in Bolingbrook. Nevertheless, the excitement around new products, an expansive trade area, and potential to connect with younger audience make it a worthwhile test (especially with 2024 shaping up to be a strong year for unit growth within the coffee category).
In December 2023, Placer.ai released two white papers: How Physical Stores Help DNBs Thrive and East Coast Migration Hubs. Below is a taste of our findings. To read more data-driven consumer research, visit our library.
DNBs – Digitally Native Brands – refer to retailers that began their retail journey exclusively online, selling their product line direct-to-consumers through their owned digital channel. But although all these businesses start out as a pure e-commerce play, many DNBs eventually move offline, choosing to leverage the various benefits of brick-and-mortar channels to grow their business even further.
Analyzing year-over-year (YoY) data for Q3 2023 shows that, while many retailers struggled, DNB leaders such as Vuori, Allbirds, Everlane, and Warby Parker all saw significant growth in quarterly visits per venue. Many of these brands also underwent significant expansions, but the increase in visits per venue reveals that many of the DNBs are seeing more crowded stores despite the increase in number of overall venues. The success of these brands in operating stores that consumers want to keep visiting – even in times of economic headwinds – suggests that DNBs are particularly well positioned to take advantage of the diverse benefits of offline stores.
How Physical Stores Help DNBs Thrive uses location intelligence to reveal the different brick-and-mortar strategies helping DNBs broaden their reach, build their brand, and acquire new audiences. Several DNBs are building massive store fleets, while others focus on a couple well-placed stores – and some focus on temporary pop-ups to reap the benefits of physical stores without the long-term commitment.
Read the full report here to discover the diverse methods that digitally native brands are enlisting to to drive growth through brick-and-mortar expansion.
Much has been written about the recent population outflows from New York, Massachusetts, and other northeastern states. But many states on the East Coast – including Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, North and South Carolina, and Florida – are actually seeing influxes of newcomers.
Each of these states – and each of the metropolitan areas attracting relocators within them – offers its own set of benefits. But those willing to make the move often fit a similar profile – younger individuals or families looking for a more favorable housing market, better schools, or more job opportunities.
East Coast Migration Hubs looks at several states and metro areas on the East Coast to explore the factors driving migration to these emerging hubs. Using location data to understand who is moving, and harnessing Niche’s Neighborhood Grades dataset to identify differences between origin and destination areas, the report seeks to shed light on recent domestic migration trends in the Eastern United States.
Read the full report here to discover the factors driving domestic migration to several popular relocation destinations on the East Coast.
For more data-driven consumer research, visit our library.
Last year was marked by inflation and consumer cutbacks as shoppers adjusted to price hikes across key retail and dining categories. But despite the challenges, many categories and retailers not only weathered the storm but positively thrived under the ongoing headwinds.
Now, with a new year offering fresh opportunities for growth, what are the retail and dining segments positioned for success in 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Last year’s high grocery prices led to a surge in foot traffic to affordable supermarket chains – but food-away-from-home inflation also seems to have driven visits to high-end grocers. Visits to chains such as New York-based Uncle Giuseppe’s, Illinois-based Cermak Fresh Market, and California-based Lazy Acres saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit increases as consumers sought specialty ingredients to recreate restaurant-quality dishes at home. Rising interest in sustainability, natural products, and organic ingredients – especially among Gen-Z – likely helped drive traffic growth as well.
But the success of specialty grocers isn’t just coming from singles willing to splurge on the latest influencer-backed food trend – trade area demographic data reveals that families with children are overrepresented in the captured market trade area of all three specialty grocers analyzed. With restaurant prices likely increasing slightly in 2024, consumers looking to feed their families tasty dishes without breaking the bank – or shoppers feeding the growing demand for natural food products – will likely keep visits to specialty grocers high in the coming year.
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Along with the rise in specialty grocers selling natural and organic ingredients, restaurants focusing on whole, healthy foods are also seeing a boost – and the segment is positioned for further growth in 2024. Consumers are flocking to concepts such as Mendocino Farms, honeygrow, and Crisp & Green that boast fresh ingredients and made-from-scratch dishes – and these chains are all expanding to meet the growing demand.
Visits to healthy dining concepts are no longer reserved for special occasions – weekday foot traffic is also on the rise, with all three dining brands analyzed seeing a YoY rise in the share of Monday to Friday visits. With employees slowly but surely returning to the office and looking to grab a nutritious lunch mid-day or meet up with friends for a balanced dinner on their way home, demand for health-focused dining concepts is likely to continue growing in 2024.
Dave’s Hot Chicken was one of 2023’s biggest dining success stories, and the chain was not the only fried chicken franchise attracting significant foot traffic. Raising Cane’s, which has been on a roll for several years, and Huey Magoo’s Chicken Tenders – which serves grilled chicken and other fare alongside its signature fried tenders – are also taking the country by storm.
Foot traffic to the chains surged in 2023, driven in part by aggressive expansions. But zooming into November 2023 data reveals that average visits per venue are also up YoY, despite all three brands’ much larger store fleets – indicating that the fried chicken boom is meeting a ready demand. It seems, then, that while some diners will favor healthy foods in the new year, other consumers are likely to continue driving visits to fried chicken chains in 2024.
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Fried chicken isn’t the only indulgence positioned to thrive in 2024. Other affordable luxuries raked in visits last year and are likely to continue seeing growth in the year ahead.
Although inflation appears to be cooling, prices across many goods and services still remain elevated, with some shoppers still putting off large purchases. But consumers are willing to splurge on small treats that won’t break the bank, and tasty snacks and food items – from craft doughnuts to gourmet deli sandwiches to specialty coffee concoctions – could provide the perfect affordable and guilt-free pick-me-up. Parlor Doughnuts, Pickleman’s Gourmet Cafe, and Dutch Bros. Coffee are some of the chains that benefited from this trend in 2023 and will likely continue to grow in the new year.
The trade areas of the three chains analyzed all include a larger-than-average share of “non-family households” – people living with unrelated individuals. As high housing costs continue to lead more U.S. adults to live with roommates, the number of consumers looking to escape their daily grind with an affordable indulgence is likely to increase in 2024 – and drive even larger visit surges to chains offering budget-friendly treats.
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Non-comestible affordable indulgence such as tanning salons, hair-removal parlors, and eyelash salons are also seeing a rise in visits that will likely continue in the coming year. Deka Lash, Tan Republic, Glo Tanning, and LaserAway are some of the chains that saw their YoY visits increase significantly in 2023, and the growth does not appear to be slowing down.
All four chains’ trade areas included a larger share of Gen-Z visitors (aged 18-24) than the share of 18-24 year olds nationwide. And since, despite inflation, younger shoppers tend to spend more than the average American on beauty and self care – and Gen Z’s spending power is only expected to grow in the coming year – personal grooming chains are well positioned to succeed even further in 2024.
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Another personal care-adjacent segment slated for growth in 2024 is themed fitness. Gyms and studios that focus on a particular type of activity or fitness regimen – such as climbing, yoga, pilates, or HIIT are seeing their visits skyrocket, with both the number of monthly visits and the average visit frequency on the rise YoY.
The rising popularity of themed fitness concepts may be aided by the sense of community fostered by many of these chains. Touchstone Climbing organizes meetup groups geared towards specific audiences, while F45 Training prides itself on facilitating a sense of purpose and belonging among its members. And yoga and pilates classes have long been recognized for their capacity for connection-building.
With loneliness on the rise and many consumers looking to incorporate a fun, social element into their fitness routines, the demand for themed fitness concepts will likely keep on growing in 2024.
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Cost-effectiveness does not necessarily mean cheap. And while some retail segments to watch in 2024 stand out for their low price points, other segments that offer consumers a particularly strong value proposition also appear well positioned to thrive in the coming year. Chains such as Theory, Anthropologie, and Marine Layer all saw YoY increases in monthly visits every month of 2023, perhaps aided by the “quiet luxury” trend that drove demand for high-quality, non-ostentatious fashion. And while these brands may not offer the cheapest price, the focus on good craftsmanship and premium fabrics may help consumers feel better about shelling out a little more for each item.
All three brands analyzed have a significant presence in California. Diving into their captured market in the Golden State reveals that visitors to these upscale apparel retailers tend to be wealthier and are more likely to live alone when compared to the average California resident. So even as many companies look to cater to the increasing share of budget-conscious consumers, other retailers willing to invest in quality materials and offer a premium customer experience can still thrive in 2024 by meeting the needs of more affluent audiences.
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From healthy foods to fried fare, and from affordable treats to higher-priced apparel, the diversity of retail and dining segments to watch in 2024 highlights the many opportunities for success in the coming year. Where will visits skyrocket? Which brands will hit it out of the park?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
Streets adorned in holiday lights, bustling Christmas stores and pop-ups, and local festivals all make the holiday season a truly magical time of year. So with Christmas in the rearview mirror, we dug into the data to explore some of the most beloved holiday spots throughout the country. Who visits Christmas stores? How do holiday events affect foot traffic to local hangouts? And what impact do annual parades have on major retail corridors like Chicago’s Mag Mile?
We dove into the data to find out.
Bronner’s Christmas Wonderland in Frankenmuth, MI is the biggest Christmas store in the country – nay, the world. Spanning some 27 acres, the store carries everything from personalized holiday ornaments to Christmas trees. And the venue, which is open 361 days a year, has emerged as a true destination, where visitors can enjoy a taste of the holiday spirit and load up on all their Christmas essentials.
People visit Bronner’s all year round – but foot traffic to the store really picks up during the holiday season: Between November 1st and December 21st, 2023, the holiday wonderland drew a stunning 438.0% more daily visits, on average, than it did between January and October of this year.
Drilling down deeper into the data shows that much of this visit bump is driven by locals, who flock to Bronner’s during the Christmas season. Throughout the year, Bronner’s draws tourists from all over the country – and in the summer, most visits to the shop are by shoppers living more than 100 miles away. Individuals living within 100 miles of Bronner’s tend to visit closer to Christmas, when the time comes to stock up on supplies for the holiday. And as the holiday approaches, the share of true locals in Bronner’s visitor base – i.e. those living less than 50 miles away from the store – increases significantly.
As the Yuletide season kicks into gear, special holiday-themed pop-ups and happenings also spring up throughout the country, with bars, malls, and restaurants all hosting special events filled with holiday cheer.
One venue that goes all out for the holidays is Mozart’s Coffee Roasters, the lakeside Austin, TX coffee shop that’s been a local landmark since 1993. With free wifi, expansive seating, and bottomless coffee, Mozart’s is the perfect place for remote employees to get some work done. And with hundreds of artists performing at the venue each year and a weekly open mic night, it’s also a great place to go out in the evenings. In the run-up to Christmas, Mozart’s hosts its famed annual holiday lights show, replete with a Bavarian Marketplace, a silent disco, and this year, an actual piece of Taylor Swift’s dance floor.
During the light show, Mozart’s is positively teeming with customers: Since the start of the event this year (November 9th), the coffee shop drew 104.3% more daily visitors, on average, than it did between January 7th (the end of last year’s show) and November 8th, 2023. And unsurprisingly, foot traffic data shows that most of this visit bump is driven by evening customers: During most of the year, the majority of visits to Mozart’s take place before 6:00 PM, with 24.4% concentrated in the morning hours. But when the festival kicks off, this pattern reverses – with 66.7% of visits taking place between 6:00 PM and midnight.
Local parades and festivals are another mainstay of the holiday season. From New York’s iconic Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade to the Hollywood Christmas Parade in Los Angeles, cities across America draw massive crowds to streets decked out with holiday cheer.
One of the nation’s most timeless Christmas celebrations is Chicago’s Wintrust Magnificent Mile Lights Festival – an all-day bonanza that features a slew of booths and activities, a televised parade, and an impressive fireworks display. The festival, which famously illuminates the city with a million lights, is one of the Mag Mile’s prime events of the year. And comparing November 18th, 2023 foot traffic to the popular Chicago retail corridor – the day of the big event – to a September 1st 2023 baseline, shows that the festivities generated a tremendous 179.5% visit spike.
And a look at the demographic characteristics of visitors to the Mag Mile during the Lights Festival reveals that the celebration draws a more economically diverse crowd, as well as a larger share of families with children. Throughout most of this year, the median household income (HHI) of the Magnificent Mile’s captured market was relatively high – $85.4K. At the same time, the share of parental households in the retail corridor’s captured market increased from 21.0% to 23.4%, highlighting the event’s special appeal for families.
Everybody needs some seasonal cheer – and the sheer variety of holiday-themed events and festivals means there’s something for everybody. How will Christmas stores fare as the retail environment continues to evolve? And how will shifting urban landscapes impact local events, parades, and festivals in the years to come?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail and civic analyses to find out.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.
Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Many stadiums host concerts and other shows in addition to regularly held sporting matches and can accommodate tens of thousands of spectators at once – creating massive retail, dining, and advertisement opportunities.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence metrics for some of the biggest stadiums across the country to reveal the commercial potential of these venues beyond simple ticketing revenue. Where do visitors of various stadiums like to shop? Do specific sporting and cultural events impact the nearby restaurant scene differently? How can stadium operators, local businesses, and advertisers tailor their offerings to a stadium’s particular audience and make the most of the stadium and the space throughout the year?
We take a closer look below.
The three major sports leagues – the National Basketball League (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Football League (NFL) – play at different points of the year, and the number of games each league holds during the season also varies.
MLB leads in game frequency, with each team playing 162 games during the regular season, which runs approximately from April through September. Basketball season is also around six months – roughly from mid-October to mid-April – but each NBA team plays only 82 games a season. And the NFL has both the shortest season – 18 weeks running from early September to early January (with the pre-season starting in August) – and the fewest number of matches per team. Understanding the monthly visitation patterns for the various types of stadiums can help advertisers, stadium operators, and other stakeholders ensure that they are leveraging the full potential of the venue throughout the year.
Unsurprisingly, the sports arenas serving the different leagues see visit spikes during their leagues’ respective season. But comparing visit numbers throughout the year to the average monthly visit numbers for each category in 2023 reveals that the relative visit increases and decreases during the on- and off-season vary for each type of stadium.
MLB stadiums display the steadiest visit strength during the on-season – perhaps due to MLB’s packed game schedule. MLB tickets also tend to be relatively affordable compared to tickets to pro football or basketball matches, which may also contribute to MLB’s consistently strong visit numbers throughout the season. During the MLB off-season, baseball fields – which tend to be uncovered – are relatively empty.
The seasonal visit spike to NBA arenas is less steady. The beginning and end of the season see strong peaks, and visits slow down slightly during the mid-season months of January and February. Visits then drop during the off-season spring and summer, but the off-season visit dip is not as low as it is for MLB fields – perhaps because the NBA arenas’ indoor nature make them suitable locations for concerts and other non-basketball events.
Meanwhile, NFL stadiums see the least dramatic drop in visits during the NFL off-season, as these venues’ enormous size also make them the ideal location for concerts and other cultural events that draw large crowds. These arenas’ strong almost year-round visitation numbers mean that sponsors and advertisers looking to expand beyond sports fans to reach a diverse audience may have the most success with these venues.
Although MLB offers the most budget-friendly outing, combining STI: Popstats demographic metrics with trade area data reveals that MLB stadium visitors reside in higher-income areas when compared with visitors to NBA or NFL stadiums.
Baseball fans tend to be older than fans of the other sports, which could partially explain MLB stadium visitors’ higher household income (HHI). The combination of lower ticket prices, higher median HHI among fans, and many games per season offers baseball stadiums significant opportunities to engage effectively with their fan bases.
But while NBA and NFL stadium attendees may not come from as high-income areas as do MLB stadium visitors, fans of live basketball and football still reside in trade areas with a higher HHI compared to the nationwide median. So by leveraging stadium space, advertisers and other stakeholders can reach tens of thousands of relatively high-income consumers easily and effectively.
Sports fans are known to be passionate, engaged, and willing to spend money on their team – but stadium visitors also shop for non-sports related goods and services. Retailers and advertisers can draw on location analytics to uncover the consumer preferences of stadium visitors and tailor campaigns, sponsorships, and collaborations accordingly.
Visitation data to the top five most visited MLB stadiums during 2023 showed differences between the apparel and sporting goods shopping preferences of the various stadiums’ attendees. While 39.4% of visitors to Truist Park also visited DICK’s in 2023, only 30.8% of Yankee Stadium visitors stopped by the sporting goods retailer in the same period. Similarly, while 29.9% of visitors to Yankee Stadium frequented Kohl’s, that percentage jumped to 47.3% for Busch Stadium visitors.
Harnessing location intelligence to see the consumer preferences of a stadium’s visitor base can help retailers, stadium operators, and even team managers choose partnerships and merchandising agreements that will yield the most effective results.
Sports and snacks go hand in hand – what would a baseball game be without a hot dog or peanuts? But while every stadium likely provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. And by leveraging location analytics to gain visibility into stadium-goers dining habits, stadium operators and local food businesses can understand how to best serve each arena’s audience.
Mapping where stadium visitors dine before and after games can help stakeholders in the stadium industry reach more fans.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
All of the stadiums analyzed exhibited unique visitor dining tastes, a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
Zooming in to look at consumer behavior around individual events reveals further variability in dining preferences even among visitors to the same stadium, with different types of events driving distinct dining behaviors.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is home to the Arizona Cardinals. The stadium hosted the 2023 Super Bowl, but the NFL stadium also acts as a concert venue for acts ranging from Taylor Swift to Metallica. And location intelligence reveals that the dining preferences of stadium visitors vary based on the events held at the venue.
During the Super Bowl, sports bars such as Yard House and Buffalo Wild Wings saw the largest increase in visits compared to the chains’ daily average. A month later, attendees at Taylor Swift's concert gave fried-chicken leader Raising Cane’s a significant boost.
Local restaurants can leverage location analytics to see what types of events are popular with their visitor base and craft collaborations and advertising campaigns that resonate effectively with their patrons.
Sports stadiums and arenas are not just spaces for sports and music enthusiasts to gather; they also offer significant commercial opportunities for the surrounding communities. Stadium operators and local businesses can fine-tune their offerings by utilizing location analytics to better connect with their visitor bases and uncover new retail opportunities.
