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Sourcing food at home has become a lot more attractive for consumers against the backdrop of economic concerns in 2024. In Kroger’s earnings call, CEO Rodney McMullen called out that out of home food costs are outpacing in home food costs, leading shoppers to focus more on in-home meal solutions. Cooking can be seen as a cost saving lever for visitors, but the pandemic period also fostered a love of cooking and spending time in the kitchen, even for higher income households not necessarily looking to save money. And it appears through Placer’s location insights that retailers that focus on outfitting the kitchen have been benefiting from this change in consumer behavior.
Despite the home industry having its challenges in foot traffic after the pandemic, housewares retailers have had some positive momentum over the past few months. Beyond that, houseware retailers that specialize in kitchen wares, such as Crate & Barrel and Sur La Table, have seen traffic growth throughout 2024. Williams-Sonoma, despite challenging year-over-year declines in traffic, reported comparable sales growth in the first quarter of 2024, which signals a higher level of conversion in-store.
Sur La Table, a retailer that’s been challenged in the past, has found new life in changing consumer needs. One of Sur La Table’s core competencies is in-store cooking classes, and experiential retail continues to be one way the industry can provide inherent value to visitors. Dwell times are almost 10 minutes longer than Williams-Sonoma, its closest competitor (below). It also has the highest median household income of visitors and has the highest share of visits from households over $150k. Certainly at-home cooking has increased across income brackets, but high-end consumers also appear to be interested in adjacent home categories to take their skills to the next level. Blending product knowledge, experiences and assortment has greatly benefitted Sur La Table, and even against a challenging specialty retail landscape, the retailer has once again found its niche.
These retailers are often at the top of wedding registry lists, which could benefit traffic as we head into the summer months and the height of wedding season. Crate & Barrel, while not solely a kitchen focused retailer, has long been known as a registry destination that helps registrants outfit a kitchen with all of the cookware and gadgets one could need. Year to date through June, Crate & Barrel traffic is up 3% year-over-year, which is even more impressive considering that its assortment features an array of home furnishings categories, including furniture. Looking at demographic segments using Spatial.ai, Crate & Barrel over indexes in visits from Educated Urbanites and Young Professionals and Sunset Boomers compared the the average of other housewares chains, a signal that the wedding registry business, typically fueled by kitchen goods, could be attracting these particular subsets. Crate & Barrel also has a high level of loyalty in visits compared to other competitors in the space.
As we reported about Wayfair a few weeks ago, home retailers that have created exciting experiences and reasons to visit are still resonating with consumers, despite the tempered interest in the home category. An increased interest in cooking by consumers certainly plays a part in these retailers' success, but they have also had to provide even more incentive to drive traffic growth as consumers shift their attention away from purchasing for their homes. Having an experiential component or registry business have kept kitchen focused retailers more aligned with their consumer’s needs, which drive inherent value in today’s retail landscape, something not easy to come by.
Thrifting is on the rise. Whether fueled by a desire to shop more sustainably, find unique pieces, or save money, consumers have been increasingly turning to secondhand clothing stores for their new threads. And interest in thrift shopping is only expected to grow over the next few years – with some estimates putting the U.S. secondhand market at $73 billion by 2028.
With 2024 nearly at the midway point, we dove into the data to take a closer look at the segment.
The past few years have seen a growing interest among consumers in all things value, and thrift shops have been reaping the benefits. Between January and May 2024, the segment experienced strong monthly year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth. And compared to pre-COVID, too, thrift stores drew 29.6% more foot traffic in Q1 2024 than in Q1 2019.
Diving into the visit performance of individual thrift store chains reveals strength across a variety of brands. YoY visits to Goodwill, Crossroads Trading Co., and Savers were consistently elevated between January and May 2024.
Who are the shoppers driving thrift shop visit growth? Analyzing the demographics of thrift store visitors’ trade areas reveals that in 2024, thrift stores serve an economically diverse customer base. Data from the STI: PopStats dataset combined with Placer.ai captured market data shows that Goodwill draws customers from areas with a median household income (HHI) below the nationwide median $76.1K. Savers, for its part, draws shoppers from average-income areas, while Crossroad Trading Co. attracts a high-HHI customer base – likely due to the chain’s strong presence in affluent California and focus on high-end items.
Still, a look at the wider apparel shopping habits of thrift store visitors shows that these shoppers tend to be bargain hunters: Between January and May 2024, visitors to Crossroads Trading Co. and Savers were more likely to visit Goodwill than any other clothing chain. But they – together with Goodwill visitors – also did plenty of shopping at off-price chains like Ross Dress For Less, Marshall’s, and T.J. Maxx. (Crossroad Trading Co., which places a strong emphasis on selling on-trend, high-end items, also saw many of its customers shopping at Macy’s, while Savers visitors were more likely to frequent Kohl’s).
This consistent interest in budget-friendly venues underscores the strong preference for value among the growing ranks of thrift store shoppers
Thrifting is proving its staying power, with visits to major thrift stores outpacing those of other apparel categories. Will the secondhand market continue on its upward trajectory?
Follow Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail trends.
Limited-assortment value grocery stores like Aldi and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market have thrived in recent years, as inflation-wary consumers sought out ways to save money at the till.
But how are these chains faring in 2024? Have cooling inflation and increased consumer confidence put a dent in their performance? We dove into the data to find out.
As the name suggests, limited-assortment grocery stores are known for carrying fewer products than traditional grocery stores in a bid to cut down on overhead costs and pass savings on to consumers. These chains also utilize other methods, such as private label brands, opportunistic merchandising, and fewer in-store amenities, to keep prices low.
And foot traffic data shows that in the first part of 2024, consumers continued flocking to these brands to grab groceries at a discount – driving year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth that far outperformed that of traditional grocery stores. In May 2024, for example, visits to the overall grocery segment grew by 7.9% YoY, while Aldi and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market experienced YoY growth of 26.3%, 14.3%, and respectively.
Some of this foot traffic growth can be attributed to the two chains’ continued expansion: Aldi added dozens of new stores in 2023 – with hundreds more in the pipeline – and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market also significantly grew its footprint. But the average number of visits to both brands’ individual locations also increased, again outpacing traditional grocery, showing that their expansion is meeting robust demand.
Looking into the loyalty rates of visitors to these limited-assortment value chains provides more reason for optimism for the sector: Over the past three years, Aldi and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market both saw an increase in loyal visits – defined as those made by people who frequented the chains at least four times in a month.
In April 2022, for example, 28.0% of visits to Aldi and 27.0% of visits to Grocery Outlet Bargain Market were made by people who visited the chains at least four times during the month – but by 2024, these shares grew to 30.1% and 30.2%, respectively. A similar trend was observed in May 2024.
Increasingly, it seems, people are doing at least part of their routine weekly grocery shopping at these limited-assortment chains. And with consumers continuing to seek ways to save money, these grocers are well-positioned to continue growing their visit shares.
The limited-assortment, value grocery model continues to prove its staying power, with impressive foot traffic, visits per location, and loyalty rates.
Will the segment continue on its upward trajectory?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. Among the notable chains featured are Walmart, Target, Costco, Kroger, Ulta Beauty, The Home Depot, McDonald’s, Chipotle, Crunch Fitness, and Trader Joe's. The goal of the list is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining, and shopping center segments.
Foot traffic patterns at leading chains can serve as an interesting proxy for consumer sentiment – offering a glimpse into the overall health of the retail and dining spaces. And analyzing the YoY foot traffic performance of the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining over the past twelve months reveals that, for the most part, major retail and dining players have enjoyed consistently strong visit growth. In November and December 2023 – during the height of last year’s holiday shopping season – foot traffic to the chains included in the Index increased 2.9% and 3.7% respectively, compared to the equivalent period of 2022.
And although 2024 opened with a slight, weather-driven YoY decline in visits, retail and dining foot traffic quickly bounced back, finishing out May with a 5.1% increase. This springtime jump was partly due to two special calendar days – Mother’s Day weekend, and Memorial Day weekend – both of which drove bigger visit spikes this year than in 2023.
These robust visitation patterns highlight consumer resilience in the face of headwinds – and may be an encouraging indicator of a thriving summer ahead.
Zooming into the Index’s regional performance during May 2024 uncovers impressive positive YoY visit growth across the nation.
The Midwest led the way, buoyed by strong YoY foot traffic growth in South Dakota (6.7%), Michigan (6.4%), and North Dakota (6.4%). But the two states with the biggest YoY visit boosts – Vermont (7.4%) and New Hampshire (7.0%) – were in the Northeast, and the South and West performed well too. This impressive increase in retail and dining visits was observed across the vast majority of the continental U.S., regardless of population size and local weather conditions. Such widespread growth indicates a robust and uniform recovery in consumer activity nationwide, suggesting that factors beyond regional characteristics, such as slowing inflation and increased consumer confidence, played a significant role in driving this trend.
Drilling down into the rankings of individual chains in the index can highlight some of the key trends shaping retail and dining this year.
Value-oriented retailers – including Aldi, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, and Dollar General, – featured prominently among May’s top performers, both for YoY chain-wide visits and for YoY average visits per location. This robust showing demonstrates the continued draw of budget fare, which has been observed across a wide range of segments – from grocery to apparel.
The quest for savings spilled over into other segments as well. Value gym Crunch Fitness, which grew its footprint significantly over the past year, ranked among the top performers both for overall visits and for visits per location – showcasing the success of its expansion strategy. And casual dining chains Chili’s Grill & Bar and Buffalo Wild Wings also made the list, with YoY visit growth likely driven by successful value promotions.
Indeed, Chili's Grill & Bar – propelled by its hit Big Smasher Burger promotion – has emerged as this month's leading chain, topping the charts both for overall visits (26.3%) and for average visits per location (26.1%).
Hungry, budget-conscious diners can get Chili’s Big Smasher as part of the chain’s signature 3 for Me deal, which lets diners choose a beverage, starter, and main course starting at $10.99. And the offering, which was launched on April 29th, 2024, has become a sensation – going viral on TikTok and garnering significant media attention.
The promotion is competitively priced against QSR offerings, at a time when fast-food chains have seen slowing sales due to cutbacks by inflation-wary consumers. Chili's has been praised for delivering exceptional value – and taking a closer look at weekly visitation trends shows that this strategy is paying off. Chili’s saw a surge of weekly visit growth beginning the week of the promotion (April 29th), and has continued thriving since. This highlights the importance of understanding consumer needs and finding ways to deliver value.
Will June continue to see a rise in retail and dining visits as summer approaches? Will the success of retail and dining foot traffic remain evenly spread across regions, even as some areas are more affected by summer heat? And will value-oriented retailers continue to dominate the ten top performers in retail and dining?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
It’s no secret that the restaurant category is starting to get more promotional. As consumers–especially lower income consumers–have shifted toward substitute food retail channels like value grocers, warehouse clubs, and convenience stores due to the compounded effect of food-away-from home inflation, restaurant chains across all tiers are resorting to increased promotional activity to drive visit trends.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve discussed that several casual dining chains had seen success through all-you-can eat and other deep discount promotions. Last week, we noted that Chili’s had been outperforming broader casual-dining category averages through its value messaging. We also noted the success of Buffalo Wild Wings All-You-Can Eat wings promotions on Monday and Wednesdays starting in mid-May. Below, we show visit trends to Buffalo Wild Wings on Mondays and Wednesdays compared to their year-to-date averages since the beginning of March. The promotion has helped to drive incremental visits on two traditionally slower days. During May, the chain was seeing visits greater than 30% its normal daily visit count for Mondays and Wednesdays during the earlier part of the promotion and exceeding 50% during the latter part of the month. While it's unlikely that this promotion will be permanent–restaurants have to work with their suppliers ahead of time to make sure they have sufficient food for promotions like this–but given the success, the chain may consider running during other months (and potentially other days of the week) later this year.
However, as we noted in our recap of this year’s National Restaurant Association show, QSR chains have started to get more promotional ahead as they look to recapture visit share lost to value grocers, dollar stores, and c-stores (especially within lower-income trade areas). McDonald’s will launch a national $5 value menu promotion on June 25, but it’s clear that other QSR chains are already seeing success with their competing $5 promotions. Below, we show year-over-year weekly visit trends from March through early June for the major QSR burger chains. Burger King launched its own $5 Your Way Meal value menu this past week, and has seen visit trends accelerate since then. Starbucks–which has historically stayed away from discounts as a way to protect its premium brand position–also surprised the industry by announcing a $5-$7 “pairings menu” this week.
Easing commodity costs have allowed restaurants to get more promotional, although when paired with rising labor costs (especially in California, which we covered last week), it does set up an environment where restaurant profits will likely be squeezed over the next several months. Also, substitute food retail channels are likely to introduce their own price reductions in the months to come (as we’ve already seen from Walmart).
Summer has unofficially arrived, and with that comes the desire to relax, unwind and travel. And despite some of the economic uncertainty still facing consumers, 2024 is off to a surprising start for traffic in certain parts of retail. According to AAA, auto traffic growth for Memorial Day weekend was projected to grow by 4% compared to last year and by almost 2% versus 2019. Car travel has long been seen as the value-based travel method across the U.S., and who can forget the allure of the “summer road trip”. But inflationary pressures may have made it less appealing over the past few years. In the most recent consumer price index for May 2024, a drop in gasoline prices was a large positive contributor to the overall rate of 3.3%, which could provide a stronger consumer push for summer car travel.
With the positive momentum in auto traffic and gas prices, gas station and convenience store traffic has greatly benefited since Memorial Day weekend. In fact, visits to chains from May 20 to June 10 this year increased by 11% compared to the same weeks in 2023 and 15% versus 2022. Traffic to convenience stores and gas chains is up almost 30% compared to the same weeks in 2019. Traffic growth steadily climbed over the course of the three weekends measured, and the weeks had some of the highest growth rates so far in 2024 with the exception of a week in March. Even with the projected increase in auto traffic across the country, convenience and gas is the summer blockbuster, building on the consumer trends of the past year and the successful strategies of various retailers.
Wawa, in particular, saw strong visit patterns in the first unofficial few weeks of summer travel. The chain at a total level is up an impressive 14% year-over-year for the measured weeks. Looking at Wawa’s performance across various states, Florida drove much of the growth in traffic as the weather heats up, and outperformed some of the brand’s stronghold states like Pennsylvania & New Jersey. Average dwell times at Wawa locations in Florida are almost a minute higher than the chain average, highlighting that stores are not only pulling in more visits, but keeping visitors in-store for longer. The strong performance of the Florida locations, even during the off season, corroborates the brand’s investment in expansion across the state. One might suspect that Wawa is well positioned heading into the remainder of the summer with its coastal strategy.
Will C-stores continue to grow traffic as we officially enter the summer season? All signs point to yes, even if gas prices rise due to increased demand. Chains have done a fantastic job of enticing consumers with unique food offerings and might become the must-visit destination before heading to the beach this summer.
1. AI is raising the bar for physical retail as shoppers arrive more informed, more intentional, and less tolerant of friction – though the impact varies by category and format.
2. As discovery shifts upstream, stores increasingly serve as confirmation rather than discovery points where shoppers validate decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
3. AI-based tools can improve in-store performance by removing operational friction – shortening trips in efficiency-led formats and supporting deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
4. By embedding expertise directly into frontline workflows, AI helps retailers deliver consistent, high-quality service despite high turnover and limited training windows.
5. AI enables precise, location-specific marketing and execution, allowing retailers of any size to align assortments, staffing, and messaging with real local demand.
6. Retailers can also use AI to manage their store fleets with greater discipline and understand where to expand, where to avoid cannibalization, and where to rightsize based on observed demand rather than static assumptions.
7. AI is not a universal lever in physical retail; its value depends on the store format, and in discovery-driven models it should support operations behind the scenes rather than reshape the customer experience.
Physical retail has faced repeated claims of obsolescence, from the rise of e-commerce to the shock of COVID. Each time, analysts predicted a structural decline in brick-and-mortar. And each time, physical retail adapted.
AI has triggered a similar round of predictions. Much of the current discussion frames retail’s future as a binary outcome: either stores become heavily automated, or e-commerce becomes so optimized that physical locations lose relevance altogether.
But past disruptions point in a different direction. E-commerce changed how physical retail operated by raising expectations for omnichannel integration, speed, and clarity of purpose. Retailers that adjusted store formats, merchandising, and operations accordingly went on to drive sustained growth.
AI likely represents another inflection point for physical retail. As shoppers arrive with more information, clearer intent, and even less tolerance for friction than in the age of "old-fashioned" e-commerce, physical stores will remain – but the standards they are held to continue to rise.
This report presents four ways retailers are using AI to get – and stay – ahead as physical retail adapts to this next wave of disruption.
E-commerce moved discovery earlier in the shopping journey. Instead of beginning the process in-store, many shoppers now arrive at brick-and-mortar locations after having deeply researched products, comparing options, and narrowing choices online – entering the store to validate rather than initiate their purchasing decision.
AI-powered shopping accelerates this pattern. Conversational assistants, recommendation engines, and AI-driven discovery across search and social reduce the time and effort required to evaluate options – and this shift is changing consumers' expectations around the in-store experience.
Apple shows what it looks like when a physical store is built for well-informed shoppers. Given the prevalence of AI-powered search and assistants in high-consideration categories like consumer electronics, Apple customers likely arrive at the Apple Store with more preferences already shaped by AI-assisted research than other retail categories.
Apple Stores were designed for this kind of customer long before AI became widespread. The layout puts working products directly in customers’ hands, merchandising emphasizes live use over promotional signage, and associates are trained to answer detailed technical questions rather than walk shoppers through basic options.
That alignment is showing up in store behavior. Even as AI-powered shopping expands, Apple Stores continue to see rising foot traffic and longer visits thanks to the store's specific and curated role in the customer journey – a place where customers confirm decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
Some applications of AI extend trends that e-commerce has already introduced. Others address operational challenges that previously required manual coordination or tradeoffs.
AI can reduce friction and make store visits more predictable by improving staffing allocation, reducing checkout delays, optimizing inventory placement, and managing traffic flow. These changes reduce friction without altering the visible customer experience.
Sam's Club offers a clear, recent example of AI solving a specific in-store bottleneck. For years, customers completed checkout only to face a second line at the exit, where an employee manually scanned paper receipts and spot-checked carts.
In early 2024, Sam’s Club introduced computer vision-powered exit gates, allowing customers to exit the store without stopping as AI algorithms instantly captured images of the items in their carts and matched them against digital purchase data. Employees previously tasked with receipt checks could now shift their focus to member assistance and in-store support.
The impact was measurable. Sam’s Club reported that customers now exit stores 23% faster than under manual receipt checks, a result confirmed by a sustained nationwide decline in average dwell time. During the same period, in-store traffic increased 3.3% year-over-year – demonstrating how removing friction with AI can deliver tangible gains.
AI optimizes stores for different outcomes. At Sam’s Club, it shortens visits by removing friction from task-driven trips. At Apple, upstream research leads to longer visits focused on testing, questions, and decision validation. In both cases, AI aligns store execution with shopper intent – prioritizing speed and throughput in efficiency-led formats and deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
Beyond shaping store roles and streamlining operations, AI can also address a long-standing challenge in physical retail: delivering consistent, high-quality expertise on the sales floor despite high turnover and seasonal staffing. In the past, retailers relied on heavy training investments that often failed to pay off. AI can now embed that expertise directly into frontline workflows, allowing associates to deliver confident, informed service regardless of tenure and strengthening the in-store experience at scale.
In May 2025, Lowe’s rolled out a major in-store AI enhancement called Mylow Companion, an AI-powered assistant that equips frontline staff with real-time, expert support on product details, home improvement projects, inventory, and customer questions.
Mylow Companion is embedded directly into associates’ handheld devices, delivering instant guidance through natural, conversational interactions, including voice-to-text. This enables even newly hired employees to provide confident, expert-level advice from day one, while helping experienced associates upsell and cross-sell more effectively. The tool complements Mylow, a customer-facing AI advisor launched the same year to help shoppers plan projects and discover the right products, leading to increased customer satisfaction.
While AI alone cannot solve demand challenges—especially amid macroeconomic pressure on large-ticket discretionary spending—early signals suggest it may still play a meaningful role. Location analytics indicate narrowing year-over-year visit gaps at Lowe’s post-deployment, pointing to a potentially improved in-store experience. And Home Depot’s recent announcement of agentic AI tools developed with Google Cloud suggests that these technologies are becoming table stakes in this category.
As more retailers roll out similar capabilities, those that moved earlier are better positioned to help set the bar – and benefit as the market adapts.
Beyond improving the in-store experience, AI also gives retailers a powerful way to drive foot traffic through precision marketing. By processing large volumes of behavioral, location, and timing data, AI can help retailers decide who to reach, when to engage them, where to activate, and what message or assortment will resonate – shifting marketing from broad seasonal pushes to campaigns grounded in local demand.
Target offers an early example of this approach before AI became widespread. Stores near college campuses have long tailored assortments and messaging around the academic calendar, especially during the back-to-school season. In August, these locations emphasize dorm essentials, compact storage, bedding, tech accessories, and affordable décor – supported by campaigns aimed at students and parents preparing for move-in. That localized approach has been effective in driving in-store traffic to Target stores near college campuses, with these venues seeing consistent visit spikes every August and outperforming the national average across multiple back-to-school seasons from 2023 to 2025.
AI makes local execution repeatable at scale. By analyzing visit patterns, past performance, and timing signals across thousands of locations, retailers can decide which products to promote, how to staff stores, and when to run campaigns at each location. Marketing, merchandising, and store operations then act on the same demand signals instead of separate assumptions.
Crucially, AI makes this level of localization accessible to retailers of all sizes. What once required the resources and institutional knowledge of a big-box giant can now be achieved through precision marketing and demand forecasting tools, allowing brands to adapt each store’s messaging, assortment, and execution to the unique rhythms of its community.
Beyond improving performance at individual stores, AI can also give retailers a clearer view of how their entire store fleet is working – and where it should grow, contract, or change. By analyzing foot traffic patterns, trade areas, customer overlap, and visit frequency across locations, AI helps retailers identify which sites are truly reaching their target audiences and which are underperforming relative to local demand.
AI also plays a critical role in smarter expansion. Retailers can use it to identify markets and neighborhoods where demand is growing, customer overlap is low, and incremental visits are likely – reducing the risk of cannibalization when opening new stores. By modeling how shoppers move between existing locations, AI can flag when a proposed site will attract new customers versus simply shifting traffic from nearby stores, grounding expansion decisions in observed behavior rather than demographic proxies or intuition alone.
Equally important, AI helps retailers recognize when expansion no longer makes sense. By tracking total fleet traffic, visit growth, and trade-area saturation, retailers can assess whether new stores are adding net demand or diluting performance. The same signals can identify locations where demand has structurally declined, informing rightsizing decisions and store closures. In this way, AI supports a more disciplined approach to physical retail – one that treats the store fleet as a dynamic system to be optimized over time, rather than a footprint that only grows.
The impact of AI on physical retail will vary significantly by category and format. Not every successful store experience is built around efficiency, prediction, or pre-qualification. Retailers with clearly differentiated offline value don’t necessarily benefit from forcing AI into customer-facing experiences that dilute what makes their stores work.
“Treasure hunt” formats are a clear example. Off-price retailers like TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington continue to drive strong traffic by offering unpredictability, scarcity, and discovery that cannot be replicated – or meaningfully enhanced – through AI-driven search or recommendation. The appeal lies precisely in not knowing what you’ll find. For these retailers, heavy investment in AI-led personalization or pre-shopping guidance risks undermining the core experience rather than improving it.
Similar dynamics apply in other categories. Independent boutiques, vintage stores, resale shops, and certain specialty retailers succeed by offering curation, serendipity, and human taste rather than optimization. In these cases, AI may still play a role behind the scenes – supporting inventory planning, pricing, or site selection – but it should not reshape the customer-facing experience. AI is most valuable when it reinforces a retailer’s existing value proposition. Formats built around discovery, surprise, or experiential browsing should protect those strengths, even as other parts of the retail landscape move toward greater efficiency and intent-driven shopping.
AI is forcing physical retail to evolve with intention. By creating a supportive environment for customers who arrive with made-up minds, removing friction inside the store, offering the best in-store services, and orchestrating demand with greater precision, retailers are adapting to the new world standards set by AI. All five strategies focus on aligning stores with shopper intent – what customers want, how the store supports it, and when the interaction happens.
The retailers that win in this next era won’t be the ones that use AI to simply automate what already exists. They’ll be the ones that use it to sharpen the role of physical retail – turning stores into places that help shoppers validate decisions, deliver value beyond convenience, and show up at exactly the right moment in a customer’s journey.
In the age of AI, physical retail wins by becoming more intentional – designed around informed shoppers, optimized for the right outcome in each format, and activated at moments when demand is real.
If 2025 proved anything, it’s that the American consumer hasn’t stopped spending – they’ve just become incredibly selective about who earns their dollar. As we look toward 2026, success isn't just about weathering headwinds; it's about identifying the specific operational levers that drive traffic.
We analyzed the data to identify ten retail and dining standouts (presented in no particular order) that are especially well-positioned for the year ahead. From grocery icons mastering hyper-authenticity to fitness challengers proving that low price doesn't mean low quality, these companies have demonstrated a powerful understanding of their audience and the operational agility to meet them where they are.
Here – in no particular order – are the brands setting the pace for 2026.
When we pick retailers for our Ten Top list, there are some that rest on the edgier side and others that look fairly down the middle. Picking H-E-B, a grocer that has seen monthly visits up year over year (YoY) for all but one month since April of 2021, is clearly not one of the bolder claims. But consistent success shouldn’t preclude a retailer from receiving its well deserved kudos, and there are some unique reasons that H-E-B specifically needs to be included this year.
H-E-B exemplifies the single most important trend in retail: the need for a brand to have authenticity and a clear reason for being. The retailer understands its audience, and as a result, it’s able to optimize its merchandising, promotions, and experience to best serve that loyal customer base. This pops in the data when we see the loyalty H-E-B commands, especially when compared to the grocery average.
In addition, the chain has also embraced adjacent innovation, leveraging its existing fleet by adding True Texas BBQ to a growing number of locations. The offering not only helps maximize the revenue potential of each visit, it taps into the core identity of the brand, further deepening customer connection and authenticity. The strategy also signals H-E-B’s understanding of emerging consumer behaviors – particularly the increase in shoppers turning to grocery stores for affordable, restaurant-quality lunches. And this combination of expanding revenue channels while heightening H-E-B’s uniqueness should also carry over into the value and impact of its retail media network.
In short, H-E-B has not only identified a critical route to success, it continues to embrace channels that widen revenue potential while doubling down on foundational strengths.
In 2024, Michaels held nearly 32.0% of overall visit share among the top four retailers in the wider crafts and hobby space. By the second half of 2025, that number had skyrocketed to just over 40.0% – driven largely by the closures of key competitors JoAnn Fabrics and Party City.
And it isn’t just that the removal of competitors is increasing the share of overall visits; the rate of capture appears to be accelerating. In Q2 2025, visits rose 7.3% YoY as Michaels began absorbing traffic from Party City, which closed the bulk of its locations by March. Growth strengthened further in Q3, with visits up 13.1% YoY following the completion of JoAnn’s shutdown in May. But during the all-important Q4, traffic surged even higher YoY, suggesting that that consolidation alone doesn’t fully explain the gains.
While the tailwinds of competitor closures clearly help, there are other strategies that are helping the retailer maximize this wave. Whether it be NFL partnerships to boost the retailer’s Sunday role in American households, a push into the framing space with 10-minute custom framing, the addition of JoAnn’s branded merchandise to its offerings, or even a challenge to Etsy’s online dominance with a new marketplace – Michaels is making moves to take full advantage of their improved positioning. There is also an argument to be made that Michaels is the retailer best poised to benefit from the segment’s consolidation, given that it is also the most oriented to a higher income consumer among top players in the category. This could help unlock other more focused concepts and promotions, and better align with an audience now looking for a retail replacement.
Walmart is the dominant player in physical retail.
And they leverage this position to push forward new offerings that extend revenue potential while maximizing per-store impact. They are a pioneer in the retail media space and have been using their unique reach to push that side of the business forward. Add to that the fact that they have been among the savviest players in all of retail in identifying the ideal approach to omnichannel, utilizing their massive physical footprint to improve their reach via BOPIS and store-fulfilled e-commerce.
All good reasons for inclusion, right?
But, here’s the kicker - from a pure visit perspective, things are going from good to better. Between January and September 2025, Walmart visits were essentially flat year over year – a good position for a retailer with such a massive reach and such strength shown in recent years. Yet, since October, visits have actually been on the rise, with Q4 2025 showing a 2.5% YoY traffic increase and several weeks exceeding 4.0% YoY.
A retail giant with even more potential growth than we might have expected – and one that’s pushing the very strategies we believe are the key to future success? That’s certainly a reason for inclusion.
Including a department store again on this year’s list? It seems counterintuitive to many of the narratives that ran through 2025, especially as middle-class consumers continue to be squeezed financially. However, Dillard’s still appears to be an exception to the rule, with performance more closely aligned to that of luxury department store brands like Bloomingdales & Nordstrom than to its true competitive set.
In 2025, visitation to Dillard’s was essentially flat YoY – though the chain has consistently outperformed the wider department store category. Dillard’s stands at a unique point somewhere between a mid-tier and luxury department store, and that distinction may be its secret to success. The retailer continues to wow with strong private label offerings that rival and often exceed national brands, a diverse merchandise mix, and locations that often benefit from indoor mall traffic trends.
While Dillard’s lags behind the wider department store category, for example, in terms of repeat visitation and the share of wealthy visitors, these factors may actually create an advantage. Efforts by Dillard's to refresh its product mix through limited-edition capsule collections and new brand launches may be helping it attract a steady inflow of economically diverse new shoppers. And the ability to continually win over new segments without alienating a “core customer” could be a strength amid economic headwinds and waning consumer sentiment.
At the same time, a more diverse visitor profile means that Dillard’s can truly be the department store for many consumers, with a product range that strikes a chord with different shopper segments.
Department stores truly aren’t dead, and those who have found their reason to exist continue to garner attention with shoppers.
If the retail industry had a symbol for 2025, it was probably Labubu. The toy-and-collectible-turned–bag charm took consumers by storm in the second quarter of the year, and POP MART – the retailer responsible for bringing Labubus stateside – quickly became an overnight sensation. Visits to the chain surged over the summer at the height of the craze, while trade areas expanded as customers traveled significant distances to get their hands on a doll.
And although the frenzy cooled somewhat in early fall, visits to POP MART locations like the one in Tulalip, WA began trending upward once again in November 2025 as the holiday season approached, surging even higher in December. Trade area size also increased dramatically during the holiday shopping period, as consumers rushed to get their hands on the chain’s coveted line of festive blind boxes.
As demonstrated by the recent Starbucks Bearista craze, consumers are all-in on cool collectible items that make life more fun – a trend POP MART, strategically located in high-traffic malls popular with younger shoppers, is uniquely positioned to ride. During times of economic uncertainty, consumers crave small ways to indulge, and affordable collectibles that are cute, cuddly, and fun have worked their way into the American zeitgeist.
So, what is next for POP MART? Can it continue to sustain its momentum? It seems likely that Labubus are here to stay, at least for a little while longer, before the retailer hopefully strikes it big with the next “must have”.
When all is said and done, 2021-2025 will likely be viewed as a pivotal turning point for the U.S. coffee industry. As the country recovered from the pandemic, consumer interaction with coffee brands fundamentally shifted. With more employees working from home – bypassing the traditional pre-work coffee run – visit trends migrated to later in the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, industry-wide dwell times shortened as consumers renewed their focus on convenience.
This move away from the sit-down café experience placed significant pressure on industry leaders, accelerating the shift toward drive-thru and mobile order-and-pay options. This moment of friction also created space for drive-thru-centric challengers like Dutch Bros, which rapidly expanded on the strength of speed and menu innovation.
Among these challengers, 7 Brew stands out as a fast-rising powerhouse heading into 2026. Expanding outward from its Arkansas roots, 7 Brew has been strategic about market entry and site selection for its unique double-drive-thru format. And with a concept that resonates with younger demographics and a footprint adaptable to various geographies, the coffee chain has become a go-to destination for rural and small-town communities, while also maintaining solid reach among more traditional coffee segments like wealthy suburbanites and urban singles. Thanks in part to this broad appeal, 7 Brew is well-positioned for future growth, even as it faces stiffer competition in new markets.
It is no secret that most of the growth in the QSR space over the past two decades has been driven by chicken concepts. Chick-fil-A, rising from a regional chain to a national player throughout the late 1990s and 2000s, was the first to disrupt the burger’s stranglehold on QSR. Raising Cane’s followed in the 2010s with a model built on menu simplicity and operational excellence, earning its place as one of the largest chains in the category. More recently, hot chicken has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments – and Dave’s Hot Chicken is leading the charge.
No single factor accounts for Dave’s growth from a lone unit in Los Angeles to over 350 units today. Certainly, a wide assortment of sauces and flavor profiles has resonated with U.S. consumers who are increasingly seeking spicier products, while Dave’s 'rebel' brand positioning has successfully attracted younger audiences. And at a time when many QSR and fast-casual chains are abandoning urban locations in favor of suburban markets, Dave’s Hot Chicken continues to open predominantly in urban settings – a strategy that may prove advantageous as migration patterns shift back toward major cities this year.
With so much of the industry’s expansion driven by chicken concepts, it is natural to ask: Have we reached 'peak chicken'? While we are certainly seeing other categories gain traction – think CAVA – Dave’s unique product mix and edgier marketing should help it stand out, even amidst increased competition.
While many discretionary retail categories – including consumer electronics, sporting goods, home improvement, and furniture – are still waiting for post-pandemic demand to recover, housewares retailers have generally enjoyed solid visit trends in 2025. Although consumers may not be financially positioned for large-scale remodels, we are now five years past the pandemic, and many residents (many of whom still work from home) are looking to refresh their living spaces.
It may therefore come as no surprise that TJX Companies’ HomeGoods and Homesense brands had an exceptional 2025 and are well-positioned to repeat this success in 2026.
This year, we observed a behavioral shift among middle-income consumers, including a clear “trade down” from mid-tier department stores and other discretionary categories. In addition, accumulated housing wear-and-tear, the recent bankruptcies of value-oriented competitors such as Conn’s and At Home, and the enduring appeal of the treasure hunt retail model, have all reinforced the brands’ momentum. Taken together, these trends leave HomeGoods and Homesense poised for both continued unit growth and increased traffic in the year ahead.
With the heightened emphasis on health and wellness post-pandemic, fitness is proving to be a category with remarkable staying power well beyond New Year’s resolution season – even in an era of macroeconomic uncertainty. Whether it’s pumping iron, hitting the treadmill, or joining fitness classes, staying healthy no longer requires breaking the bank – for just a dollar a day or less, gymgoers can build strength and endurance, achieve their rep goals, and hit their mileage targets. And affordable fitness chains – those that charge less than $30 per month – are reaping the benefits, outperforming more expensive gyms for YoY visit growth.
Among this value-oriented fitness cohort, EōS saw outsized traffic growth in 2025, with both overall visits and average visits per location outpacing competitors as the chain expands its footprint. EōS’s motto, “High Value, Low Price,” appears to be resonating strongly – especially in a year when similar value propositions are driving momentum across off-price retailers, value grocers, and dollar stores. Longer-than-average dwell times at EōS provide another encouraging signal, suggesting that its amenities, including pools, saunas, basketball courts, and equipment assortments typically found in higher-priced gyms, are truly connecting with visitors. And since visitors who stay longer are more likely to return – and to renew their memberships – EōS is well-positioned to convert this year’s traffic gains into lasting market share.
Eating and entertainment are a match made in heaven — and by leaning into a subscription model that meets price-sensitive customers where they are, Chuck E. Cheese has solidified its position as a standout in the eatertainment category.
Nearly 50 years old, this evergreen children’s entertainment concept has stood the test of time and now boasts roughly 500 venues nationwide. Its perennial tagline – “where a kid can be a kid” – still resonates with today’s children and with the parents who grew up with the brand. After languishing for several years in the wake of COVID, the company turned things around with a revamped Summer Fun Pass launched on April 30th, 2024. The offer of unlimited play per month sparked a dramatic boost in customer loyalty, and the model proved so successful that the company extended it year-round with a family pass as low as $7.99 per month.
This strategy has helped sustain visit growth throughout 2025. Despite closing several locations during the year, visits to Chuck E. Cheese rose 8.3% YoY – well above the flat eatertainment average. And the company’s loyalty rates outpaced last year from August through November, indicating that the offering isn’t losing steam and that customers continue to respond enthusiastically.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlights that there is no single path to success in 2026.
H-E-B and Chuck E. Cheese demonstrate the power of deepening loyalty through authentic experiences and value-driven memberships. Michaels and HomeGoods show how savvy retailers can capitalize on competitor consolidation and changing consumer spending habits. Meanwhile, Walmart and 7 Brew prove that even in saturated markets, operational innovation can drive fresh momentum.
As we move deeper into 2026, the brands that win will be those that, like the ten profiled here, combine a clear understanding of their unique value proposition with the agility to execute on it.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
