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Last year’s retail vibe was nothing if not experiential. Inflation led consumers to trade down and cut back on discretionary spending – but people still sought out fun, affordable venues to meet up with friends and let off some steam.
So with 2023 firmly in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc., owner of eatertainment chain Dave & Buster's, and – since 2022 – Main Event Entertainment. How did the company’s two brands fare in the final months of 2023 and at the start of 2024? And what lies in store for them in the months ahead?
Dave & Buster’s, the sports bar arcade that invites harried grown-ups to cast aside their worries and “unlearn adulthood”, is thriving. With some 160 venues across 42 states, Dave and Buster’s offers the most tightly-wound consumers an inexpensive escape from real life – someplace they can unwind with friends over a beer, some mouthwatering shareables, and a bit of friendly skee-ball.
Over the past several years, Dave & Buster’s has grown its store count, and in 2022 broadened its portfolio with Main Event Entertainment – the family-oriented eatertainment concept that pairs arcade games with larger format activities such as laser tag and bowling. And since November 2023, both brands have sustained mainly positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, disrupted only by January 2024’s inclement weather.
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Main Event Entertainment’s purchase by Dave & Buster’s appears to have been a natural move on the company’s part. Overlaying foot traffic data with demographics from STI’s PopStats reveals that the two chains’ comparable offerings attract customers with similar income profiles: In 2023, Dave & Buster’s’ and Main Event’s captured markets featured median household incomes (HHIs) of $67.3K and $67.6K, respectively – just under the nationwide baseline of $69.5K.
But the acquisition of Main Event has also allowed Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. to broaden its visitor base. Both of the company’s brands attract plenty of singles and families with children. But while Dave & Buster’s young-adult-oriented vibe holds special appeal for people living on their own, Main Event’s child-friendly activities make it a particularly attractive destination for parental households. Together, the two chains offer something for everyone – cementing the company’s role as an eatertainment leader.
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Dave & Buster’s and Main Event also enjoy similar weekly visitation patterns. Unsurprisingly, the two chains are busiest on Saturdays, followed by Sundays and Fridays, and quieter during the rest of the week. But both brands have also found creative ways to boost weekday visits. On Wednesdays, Dave & Buster’s offers a 50%-off deal, letting customers play their favorite games at half the price – and fueling a significant midweek foot traffic spike. Main Event Entertainment, for its part, draws weekday crowds on Mondays with an afternoon all–you-can-play special.
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Everybody needs to let their hair down sometimes – and with Spring Break right around the corner, both Dave & Buster’s and Main Event are building momentum with seasonal specials aimed at making their offerings even more affordable.
For both chains, March is an important milestone – in 2023, Dave & Buster’s and Main Event drew 41.0% and 82.9% more traffic during the week of March 13th, respectively, than they did, on average, throughout the rest of year. And if recent visit trends are any indication, the two brands appear poised to enjoy a healthy Spring Break and a strong rest of 2024.
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This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Despite the individual restaurant success stories in 2023, last year was also a period of economic headwinds in the dining industry. But Darden Restaurants – and its largest chains Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen – continued to drive foot traffic. We dove into the location analytics for these three Darden brands and took a closer look at the shifts in consumer behavior impacting the dining space.
Foot traffic in 2023 was largely positive for Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, with the strong visit trends likely helping drive Darden’s recent sales growth.
All three brands posted impressive YoY visit growth in Q1 2023, perhaps aided by the comparison to an Omicron-impacted, muted Q1 2022. LongHorn Steakhouse then pulled ahead of the pack in Q2 and Q3 with YoY foot traffic up 3.7% and 4.8%, respectively, before finishing the year off strong with a 3.8% YoY visit increase in Q4. But the real Darden star in Q4 was Olive Garden. The Italian-focused chain’s success was likely bolstered by the return of the Never Ending Pasta Bowl – offered from late September 2023 through mid-November – which appears to have attracted even more hungry diners than it did the previous year.
Meanwhile, YoY visits to Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen increased during the first three quarters of 2023 and held relatively steady in Q4 – YoY visits during the last quarter of the year were down just 0.7% – highlighting the overall strength of Darden’s portfolio.
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Though 2023 was a particularly successful year for Darden foot traffic, Olive Garden, LongHorn, and Cheddar’s were not immune to this year’s arctic blast. The extreme weather in January 2024 impacted dining visits and put a damper on traffic to these chains. But once the weather warmed up in February 2024, YoY visits to Olive Garden, LongHorn, and Cheddar’s began to heat up as well – outpacing even the strong early 2023 traffic – indicating that Darden brands are likely in for another year of robust visits.
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Diving deeper into the analytics for Darden’s brands indicated that shifts in consumer behavior may be a factor in the restaurants’ recent foot traffic gains. Analysis of hourly visits to Olive Garden, LongHorn, and Cheddar’s since 2019 revealed that a greater share of visitors are now engaging with their favorite restaurants during non-traditional dayparts in the mid and late afternoon.
The share of daily Olive Garden, LongHorn, and Cheddar’s visitors visiting between 2 PM and 5:59 PM was higher in 2023 than in 2019 for all three brands. Olive Garden had the largest share of mid and late afternoon visits in 2022 at 32.6% and maintained its share of 2:00 PM to 5:59 PM visitation in 2023. Meanwhile, LongHorn and Cheddar’s share of visits during the 2:00 PM to 5:59 PM daypart continued increasing in 2023 relative to the previous year, which suggests that this trend of late afternoon and early dinner visits is becoming the new normal.
As eating out early is becoming more prevalent in the casual dining space – as well as in fine dining and steakhouse restaurants – Darden might capitalize on this trend by adding more happy hours and other late-afternoon specials to its restaurants’ menus.
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Darden’s biggest chains succeeded in driving foot traffic growth in 2023 and early 2024. Location analytics indicated that while demand for the brands is consistent, consumer behavior is always changing. How will these restaurants navigate the rest of 2024? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Athleisure and sportswear are a go-to for consumers looking to move seamlessly between activities – from a workout to work-from-home. That functionality has kept the category running hot in recent years even while more consumers are getting back to the office and socializing. And since athleisure and sportswear are now bonafide wardrobe staples, more consumers are investing in high-end items. We dove into the data for two of the category’s biggest upscale players – Nike and lululemon – in order to take a closer look at the consumer behavior driving visit growth.
During all four quarters of 2023, Nike and lululemon saw year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth that surpassed the visit increases in the wider Athleisure & Sportswear space. Part of Nike’s sizable 2023 YoY visit gains were likely due to the addition of a large number of stores relative to its somewhat modest footprint. Nike is continuing to invest in own-brand stores to boost DTC business including the first U.S. Michael Jordan "World of Flight" store coming to Philadelphia, PA. Lululemon also expanded its store count – albeit more modestly – which likely also helped the company stay ahead of the competition.
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Fueled by significant store growth, Nike managed to keep YoY foot traffic positive in the first two months of 2024 despite the arctic blast that plagued overall retail visits in January.
Lululemon and the wider Athleisure & Sportswear space were less insulated from the effects of the storm, and the comparison to a strong 2023 made for mild YoY visit gaps in January 2024. But by the end of February 2024, both lululemon and the Athleisure & Sportswear space had narrowed their visit gaps and appeared to be on an upward trajectory.
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Diving deeper into the demographic data for Nike’s trade area indicated that the aggressive expansion is not the only factor driving the brand’s recent foot traffic gains. Analysis using the AGS: Demographic Dimensions dataset revealed that since the 2021 retail reopening – and specifically Q3 2021 – the median household income (HHI) of Nike’s captured market has been higher than that of its potential market*. And the gap between the median HHI in the brand’s captured and potential markets seems to have widened even further in 2022-2023.
Driving traffic from affluent consumers appears to be an intentional strategy by the brand. Nike CEO John Donahoe recently noted that the brand is expanding in products across price points and now offers more expensive womenswear than ever before – and location intelligence indicates that this strategy is working. By Q4 2023, the median HHI of Nike’s captured market had climbed to $95.6K – the highest in nearly five years. This suggests that despite the adverse impact of inflation on some aspirational shoppers, Nike is succeeding in driving high-value foot traffic.
*A chain’s potential market refers to the population residing in a given trade area, where the Census Block Groups (CBGs) making up the trade area are weighted to reflect the number of households in each CBG. A chain’s captured market weighs each CBG according to the actual number of visits originating to the chain from that CBG.
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Will the success of upscale athleisure and sportswear continue in 2024? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The big news coming out of Dollar Tree’s Q4 2023 update was that the company plans to close 1,000 stores following a comprehensive portfolio review (which we first discussed in December). Management plans to close approximately 600 Family Dollar stores in the first half of fiscal 2024, with another 370 Family Dollar and 30 Dollar Tree stores expected to close over the next several years as store lease terms expire. The 970 anticipated Family Dollar store closures represent 11.6% of the banner’s 8,359 stores opened as of the end of February. Dollar stores were one of the strongest performing categories from a visitation (new stores and perspective during 2023 (below), so it may seem surprising that Dollar Tree plans to close so many Family Dollar stores during 2024.
Dollar Tree’s decision to close Family Dollar stores echoes a lot of what we’ve heard from other retailers closing stores in recent years, including Macy’s, CVS/Walgreens, and others. For the most part, retailers’ decisions to close stores comes down to a combination of factors: (1) population migration has changed the supply/demand balance in a given market; (2) consumer behavior has changed post-COVID; (3) the retailer is facing new sources of competition and eroding consumer loyalty; and (4) retailers are replacing underperforming stores with a modernized store layout.
Management cited changing demographics and market saturation as key considerations driving its consolidation efforts for Family Dollar. While the company has not announced which locations it plans to close, we’ve plotted Family Dollar’s 1,000 lowest performing locations over the trailing twelve months on a visit per square foot basis below.
If we compare this to a map of changes in Origin/Destination Household Income Ratio over the past four years (using Placer’s Migration Trends report), the changing demographics that Dollar Tree cited becomes evident. Many underperforming Family Dollar locations are in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast markets, several of which have seen an increase in higher household income population due to migration (represented by the green dots below). As populations in these markets have shifted, it’s not surprising that the company is reevaluating its store portfolio in these markets.
The other factor at play behind these store closures is increasing competition. We’ve discussed disruption from Temu and other online marketplaces in the past, but dollar stores are also fighting for visitor share with value grocery chains, superstores, and convenience stores. And it’s not just lower-income consumers that these chains are fighting over–we’re seeing increasing evidence that dollar stores are seeing visits from middle income consumers. In fact, Dollar Tree CEO Rick Dreiling noted that Dollar Tree added 3.4 million new customers in 2023, mostly from households earning over $125,000 a year. We’ve previously noted how Walmart has been successful attracting more middle-income consumers but if we look at captured trade area demographics for the Dollar Tree banner (and not including Family Dollar) from Q3 2023 to Q4 2023, we do see an increase in the trade areas between $50-$150K in household income (below).
Admittedly, some of the increase in higher-income consumers can be explained by the aforementioned migration trends, but management also attributes the pick up in middle-income consumers to its multi-price point strategy called “More Choices” (which we’ve discussed in the past). In particular, we believe the company has seen success driving visits to Dollar Tree stores with its $3, $4, and $5 frozen and refrigerated assortment, which have been rolled out to more than 6,500 locations today (almost 80% of the banner’s store base as of February). The company has also discussed adding cooler capacity at Family Dollar stores; 17,000 cooler doors were added at Family Dollar last year, which brought the average to 26 coolers per store (versus a long-term goal of 30 coolers per store). We suspect that many of the closed Family Dollar stores will be replaced with new stores featuring expanded cooler offerings to better compete for customers across all demographic groups.
There are also more practical reasons for the store closures, including improved execution. Dreiling pointed out that underperforming stores can “take the bulk of a district manager's time”. By closing them, the company can better focus on service and execution at existing stores. Also, management believes that the closings will be accretive from a cash perspective (i.e., it’s cheaper to run these underperforming stores dark than it is to operate them at a loss).
When closing stores, there is always the risk that customers will churn to competing retail brands and categories. In fact, we’ve seen a meaningful number of visitors to CVS and Walgreens locations that closed the past two years migrate to nearby grocery and superstore chains. However, by replicating many of Dollar Tree’s successful strategies–including expanded cooler assortments–at future Family Dollar store openings, it gives the chain an opportunity to offset potential visitors lost to this round of closures.
While many retailers have embraced smaller format stores, one chain bucking this trend is Dick’s Sporting Goods through its large-format House of Sport concept. This format offers shoppers an “elevated assortment and service model, premium experiences and enhanced visual expressions”. We discussed the early success of the House of Sport last summer, and with a few months of additional data to look at, we can now better assess the longer-term potential of this concept sporting goods retail category.
Below, we’ve presented visit per location data for the 12 Dick’s House of Sport locations currently open versus Dick’s chainwide average since the beginning of 2023. The strong visits per location trends that we identified last July continued into the back half of 2023 and early 2024, with House of Sport locations now seeing 5-6 times the number of visits per location compared to the rest of the chain. For reference, the average Dick’s Sporting Goods store is roughly 50K square feet square feet compared to 100K-120K square feet for House of Sport, indicating that House of Sport is also outperforming on a visit per square foot basis.
Given the strong visitation trends, it’s not surprising that Dick’s plans to invest more in the House of Sport concept in the years ahead. In 2024, the company plans to open eight new locations, with seven being planned relocations/conversions of existing Dick’s stores and one new store at Prudential Center in Boston. The company also plans to begin construction this year on approximately 15 House of Sport locations that will open throughout 2025, bringing the total number of House of Sport locations to 35 by the end of 2025. Longer-term, management sees an opportunity for 75-100 House of Sport locations by 2027.
Interestingly, Dick’s plans to incorporate experiential elements similar to House of Sport across the rest of its store portfolio. During its Q4 2023 update this past week, management also announced plans to open 16 next-generation 50K square foot Dick’s Sporting Goods stores in 2024, including the relocation/remodeling of 12 existing stores (on top of the 11 next-generation stores already opened). These next generation stores were inspired by the House of Sport format and incorporate expanded product assortments for certain categories, emphasis on services, and improved visuals. The company also plans to open 10 Golf Galaxy Performance Center locations in 2024 (aligning well with golf’s post-COVID comeback).
In total, Dick’s Sporting Goods plans to increase square footage by approximately 2% in 2024, marking the retailer's largest annual square footage increase since 2017. Importantly, the economics behind Dick’s nascent store formats are compelling. The House of Sport formats generate approximately $35 million in omnichannel sales per store, approximately 20% EBITDA margins, and cash-on-cash returns of 35% on an initial investment of $18.5M ($11.5M capex, $3.5M inventory, and $3.5M pre-opening costs). The next-generation Dick’s stores are expected to generate $14M in omnichannel sales per store, 20% EBITDA margins, and cash-on-cash returns of 65% on an initial investment of $4.5M ($2.5M capex, $1.5M inventory, and $0.5M in pre-opening costs).
Meow Wolf’s Omega Mart in Las Vegas is an immersive entertainment experience that is sui generis and requires an in-person visit to truly understand this one-of-a-kind adventure. It’s a bit like an escape room, a bit of a psychedelic art show, with tongue-in-cheek humor and a satiric take on our consumerist tendencies. Make sure to keep an open mind when you visit and don’t be afraid to touch and feel the objects. In addition to Las Vegas, there are also locations in Denver “Convergence Station”, Grapevine “The Real Unreal”, and Santa Fe “House of Eternal Return”, with Houston opening in 2024.
When we look at participants from Las Vegas, Denver, and Grapevine, per Spatial.ai Followgraph, they have a higher propensity for being enthusiasts about Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Electric Vehicles, Celebrity Entrepreneurs, Mental Health Advocates, and Athleisure. They are more likely than average to Chase Credit Card Rewards, Invest in Real Estate, eat Mexican Food, and Love BBQ.
The segments they come from are varied, per Spatial.ai PersonaLive. Las Vegas tends to attract the most Near-Urban Diverse Families, followed by Young Professionals. Nearly 1 in 5 at the Denver location are Young Professionals, as are 14.1% in Grapevine.
Those visiting the Denver location stay the longest, with a median dwell time of 120 minutes. Santa Fe is next at 109 minutes.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
