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Summer is underway, and malls are still bustling. In July 2024, visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers were up 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively, compared to the equivalent period of 2023. Though these year-over-year (YoY) increases were more moderate than the significant jumps observed in May and June, they underscore the segment’s continued solid positioning. Outlet malls, for their parts, saw a slight 0.4% decline in mall visits compared to July 2023.
At first glance, July’s softer numbers – particularly for outlet malls – may appear to herald the start of a retail and mall visit summer slow-down. But zooming into weekly visit data offers further context that can shed light on what may lie ahead in the coming months.
Analyzing week-over-week (WoW) visit trends shows that during the last two weeks of June and the first two weeks of July, all three mall indexes saw visits either decline or hold steady from week to week. The one notable exception was outlet malls – which experienced an impressive and sudden 13.7% WoW surge in visits to outlet malls during the first week of July, driven by the segment's exceptional Independence Day draw. Outlet malls’ subsequent WoW visit drop also reflects this exceptional Fourth of July peak.
The final two weeks of July showed a change in visit trajectory, with all three mall segments experiencing growing WoW visit gains as traffic picked up towards the end of the month. This upward trend can likely be attributed to the back-to-school season getting into full swing, with sales typically running from mid to late July through August and into mid-September.
Here too, the late July WoW visit gains were strongest for outlet malls – perhaps showcasing consumers' prioritization of budget shopping ahead of the new school year.
The Placer.ai Mall Index has frequently highlighted the power of special calendar milestones to drive significant shopping center visit spikes. And Independence Day is no exception.
On July 4th, shoppers nationwide flock to stores for holiday deals, often after enjoying hotdogs, hamburgers, and other festive treats. But though all three mall types have shops that are open on the holiday, it is outlet malls that really draw the crowds. On July 4th, 2024, visits to outlet malls shot up 50.7% compared to an average YTD Thursday. Foot traffic to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers, on the other hand, remained below levels usually seen on Thursdays.
Between Fourth of July sales and a long, summer holiday weekend, many consumers chose to spend their time off this year driving out to outlet malls and browsing their offerings to find the best deals.
Between the Fourth of July and back-to-school shopping, July was yet another busy month across shopping malls nationwide. But how will malls continue to fare in August as school goes back into session and summer vacationers go back to work?
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Employers from local governments to major corporations are tightening their return-to-office (RTO) policies – cracking down on practices like coffee-badging and requiring employees to relocate closer to the workplace. Last month, the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index showed that offices throughout much of the U.S. were the busiest they’d been since the pandemic. But what happened in July 2024?
We dove into the data to find out.
In July 2024, visits to office buildings nationwide were down just 27.8% compared to July 2019 – outpacing even June 2024’s impressive showing. Stated differently, July 2024 office building foot traffic reached 72.2% of July 2019 levels – and the highest it’s been since the pandemic. So even if some RTO mandates are intended to encourage “voluntary turnover” – i.e. make some workers quit – stricter face time policies are also having an appreciable impact on the ground.
Drilling down into the data for major cities nationwide shows that, once again, Miami and New York led the regional recovery pack in July – with visits to offices in both cities reaching about 90% of July 2019 levels. For both cities, as well as Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, July 2024 was the single busiest in-office month since 2020. And though Dallas and Washington, D.C. experienced busier months earlier in the year, both hubs outperformed the nationwide baseline in July – with local offices recouping 76.9% and 73.9%, respectively, of July 2019 office foot traffic.
Houston office visits, for their part, continued to be weighed down by stormy weather – with flooding and power outages in the wake of hurricane Beryl keeping many local residents hunkered down at home.
Despite these differences, all 11 analyzed cities experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in July 2024 – further evidence that the office recovery remains very much underway. Miami led with 22.8% YoY visit growth, followed by West Coast hubs San Francisco and Los Angeles. And though hurricane-hit Houston unsurprisingly lagged behind other cities, it too saw YoY growth.
“Hushed hybrid” trends notwithstanding, offices were busier in July 2024 than during any other month since the pandemic. How much longer will the RTO continue to accelerate?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven office recovery analyses to find out.
After theaters were dominated by Barbenheimer in 2023, 2024 is shaping up to be another record-breaking year, with several big-name releases. We took a closer look at visitation patterns at major movie theater chains – AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark – to analyze how foot traffic has been impacted by the highly anticipated summer releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twisters.
Last year was one of the most exciting ones in recent memory for cinema, with multiple films breaking box-office records and driving foot traffic at movie theaters across the country. But 2024 has had plenty of tricks up its cinematic sleeve, and several summer releases have been meeting the high bar set by Barbenheimer. Inside Out 2, released nationwide on June 14th 2024, kickstarted the summer with a major movie-goer visit boost– and Deadpool & Wolverine, released on July 26, 2024 brought out even bigger crowds.
Indeed, the superhero crossover movie Deadpool & Wolverine is set to be one of the best-performing films of 2024. During the week of July 22nd, 2024 – when Deadpool & Wolverine was released – visits to movie leaders AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark jumped by 132.7% to 140.5% compared to a YTD weekly average. Twisters, released on July 19th, also drove impressive visit boosts ranging from 39.8% to 48.3% during the week of July 15th.
Early screenings have always been a big driver of visits for those lucky enough to grab tickets. And on the day before Deadpool & Wolverine’s big July 26th release, movie theaters already started filling up. On Thursday, July 25th, 2024, visits to AMC, Regal, and Cinemark were up a whopping 231.4% to 249.7% compared to a YTD Thursday average. And Friday, Saturday, and Sunday continued to see visit numbers significantly higher than the YTD visit averages for those days of the week, confirming the movie’s ability to drive visits to theaters. (In absolute terms, Saturday, July 27th was the cinema leaders’ busiest day of the year so far – but since Saturdays tend to be busier than Thursdays, the relative visit spike was somewhat smaller).
Drilling down into the data for major markets shows that though Deadpool & Wolverine was the runaway hit of the summer, Twisters also drove significant visit spikes throughout the country. And of the major markets, some of Twisters’ biggest visit boosts took place in states with plenty of hands-on tornado experience – like Texas, where July 19th visits to AMC, Regal, and Cinemark (combined) were up 98.5% compared to a YTD daily average.
Indeed, looking at the states where Twisters drove the biggest visit spikes shows that many of the top performers were in tornado-prone areas. Oklahoma – where much of the movie was filmed – saw the most impressive Twisters foot traffic bump, with visits to leading cinemas up 224.1% on July 19th, 2024 compared to a YTD daily average. And the tornado-focused thriller also drew outsize crowds in other states where the theme of the movie was more likely than average to resonate with local audiences’ personal experiences – including Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas.
Blockbuster releases like Deadpool & Wolverine, Twisters, and Inside Out 2 highlight the enduring appeal of out-of-home entertainment, and proves that movie theaters are as relevant as ever.
With more highly-anticipated releases still yet to come in 2024, can movie theaters across the country continue to break visit records?
Visit Placer.ai to stay on top of the latest data-driven leisure and entertainment stories.
Ahead of Toyota’s August 1st earnings call, we dove into the data to explore Q2 2024 visitation patterns at Toyota dealerships nationwide. How did year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic to Toyota showrooms perform in Q2 2024 – and what happened in June 2024, when the CDK Global outage caused paralysis across the industry? Who are the customers driving growth for Toyota – and what lies in store for the brand in the months ahead?
We dove into the data to find out.
During the second quarter of 2024, Toyota subsidiary TMNA (Toyota Motor North America, Inc.) reported a remarkable 9.2% year-over-year (YoY) increase in U.S. Toyota vehicle sales, buoyed by rising demand for hybrid cars. (The company also owns the luxury Lexus line).
And foot traffic data shows that U.S. Toyota dealerships have indeed been significantly busier in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2023, outperforming the wider space. Apart from the regular portion of repair and maintenance visits, the auto brand’s YoY visit growth also reflects an increase in interested buyers. In April and May 2024, Toyota dealerships saw respective YoY visit boosts of 8.6% and 7.4%. And though the pace of YoY foot traffic growth to dealerships dropped in June 2024 – likely due in part to the CDK outage – the brand appears poised for continued visit success throughout the rest of the year.
Toyota’s outsize success is likely due, in part, to its broad appeal – amongst everyone from price-conscious families seeking to maximize reliability and fuel efficiency to more affluent consumers that place a high premium on style. Toyota’s Certified Used Vehicles offering also draws in customers looking for trustworthy, pre-owned cars.
Analyzing Toyota dealerships’ captured markets with psychographics from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive shows that their trade areas are economically diverse. Toyota attracts customers from areas with higher-than-average shares of both middle and working-class families, as well as more affluent ones. And Young Urban Singles are also more likely than average to visit Toyota dealerships.
Still, in Q2 2024, Toyota dealerships attracted a slightly more affluent consumer than average. The median household income (HHI) of the dealerships’ captured markets was $77.0K, just above the nationwide baseline of $76.1K. And looking at changes in Toyota’s audience over time also shows that the median HHI of its customer base has increased steadily over the past few years – rebounding to, and even exceeding, pre-pandemic levels. In the face of high interest rates, consumers with less room in their budgets may be cutting back on visits to car dealerships. And Toyota’s hybrid first strategy may also be increasing its appeal among more affluent car owners, who are more likely to purchase hybrid vehicles.
Will Toyota continue to thrive in the months ahead? And how will its customer base continue to evolve as inflation stabilizes and interest rates eventually come down?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
All-day breakfast mainstays Denny’s and IHOP (owned by Dine Brands) are two of the most popular full-service restaurants (FSRs) in the United States. But though the chains occupy similar niches, there are some differences between them. We dove into the data to check in with the two breakfast leaders – and see how they stack up against one another on key visitation metrics.
Both Denny’s and IHOP are major players in the FSR space. With its somewhat larger footprint, IHOP captured 6.0% of visits to full-service restaurant chains in the U.S in H1 2024, while Denny’s captured 5.0%. And despite the headwinds that continued to weigh on the sector this year, both chains saw modest YoY foot traffic gains in May and June 2024.
(The relatively big YoY fluctuations that both chains experienced in March and April 2024 are likely due in part to calendar shifts: March 2024 had one more weekend than March 2023, while April 2024 had one fewer weekend than April 2023. The two chains’ YoY June performance was also likely buoyed by an extra weekend in June 2024.)
Who are IHOP’s and Denny’s typical customers? Given the two diners’ affordable offerings, it may come as no surprise that both restaurants draw visitors from captured markets with median household incomes below the nationwide baseline of $76.1K – $67.5K for Denny’s and $69.2K for IHOP.* Both chains also draw substantial shares of customers from Blue Collar Suburbs.
But each breakfast leader also draws a unique mix of visitors from a range of segments – with Denny’s attracting higher shares of middle-class urbanites and IHOP attracting higher shares of wealthy and upper-middle-class suburbanites.
Wealthy Suburban Families, for example, made up 9.5% of IHOP’s captured market and 8.1% of Denny’s in H1 2024 – while Young Urban Singles made up 10.5% of Denny’s captured market and 9.2% of IHOP’s. And while Denny’s visitors were more likely to hail from middle-class Near-Urban Diverse Families, IHOP visitors were more likely to be from upper-middle-class Upper Suburban Diverse Families.
The ability of both chains to attract a wide variety of audiences across economic strata is an important factor in their success and staying power.
*Based on STI: PopStats, combined with Placer.ai trade area data for January-June 2024.
Plenty of people eat at all-day breakfast chains on a regular basis: In June 2024, for example, 16.9% and 14.1% of visitors to Denny’s and IHOP, respectively, frequented the chains at least twice during the month. But for both restaurants, holidays and other special milestones – including Christmas, Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, and Veteran’s Day – drive major visit spikes.
Here too, however, the data reveals important differences between the two chains. Generally speaking, IHOP’s special-occasion visit boosts (compared to annual daily averages) are more substantial than those of Denny’s. And while for Denny’s, Christmas Day is the busiest day of the year, for IHOP, Mother’s Day reigns supreme. And Veteran’s Day – which both IHOP and Denny’s mark with free meals for current and former servicemen and women – is more important for IHOP than for Denny’s.
A look at the daily and hourly breakdown of visits to IHOP and Denny’s shows that the two chains also follow similar visitation patterns – but with a twist. For both restaurants, Sunday morning between 10:00 AM and 1:00 PM is the single most busiest daypart of the week – when many customers likely visit the chains to enjoy leisurely weekend brunches. Predictably, the 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM daypart is also bustling for both breakfast brands throughout the rest of the week.
But though IHOP and Denny’s both have many restaurants that are open 24/7, Denny’s sees a greater share of evening and late night visits than IHOP – perhaps reflecting the chain’s recent push to increase the number of locations open in the wee hours. Between January and June 2024, Friday and Saturday evenings between 10:00 PM and 1:00 AM drew 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively, of weekly visits to Denny’s – compared to just 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively, for IHOP.
IHOP and Denny’s are two of the most important FSR chains on the category landscape. And location analytics shows that there’s plenty of room at the top for both chains, which despite similar offerings serve audiences with somewhat different profiles and behaviors.
For more data-driven restaurant insights, follow Placer.ai.
Warby Parker continues to impress. The company got its start as an online eyewear retailer before opening its first brick-and-mortar location in 2013, and has since expanded rapidly to operate over 200 stores nationwide.
What is driving its success? We dove into the data to find out.
Warby Parker debuted its innovative retail model in 2010, disrupting an eyewear industry dominated by legacy brands. The company’s direct-to-consumer model and online try-on options proved highly popular, and as the brand moved offline, its physical stores flourished.
And more than decade after Warby Parker opened its first brick-and-mortar store, the chain’s offline locations continue to thrive. Between January and June 2024, YoY visits to Warby Parker increased significantly as the chain continued to expand – growing from 204 U.S. locations at the end of Q1 2023 to over 250 today. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Warby Parker store also rose (except in January, when retail was hard hit by inclement weather) – showing that the brand’s growing footprint is meeting robust demand.
Zooming out on Warby Parker’s monthly visit trajectory – compared to a July 2019 baseline – reveals just how well-positioned the company is heading into the summer. Aside from a brief dip during the early days of the pandemic, the company’s visits have been on a remarkable upward trend, outpacing visits to eye care retailers by a wide margin.
The baseline trend analysis also shows that Warby Parker is particularly prone to seasonal visit fluctuations – with notable foot traffic boosts during the December holiday season. And like other eye care chains, Warby Parker also experiences smaller visit increases during the summer months, as back-to-school shopping gets underway. Given Warby Parker’s strong June 2024 performance, the chain appears poised to enjoy a strong July and August this year.
Warby Parker’s robust positioning heading into the summer may be driven, in part, by its special appeal to college students. Analyzing Warby Parker’s captured market with demographics and psychographics from STI’s PopStats and Landscape datasets shows that the eyewear brand draws customers from trade areas with significantly higher shares of this coveted demographic than the wider eyewear segment: Between January and June 2024 STI: Landscape’s Collegian segment made up 4.2% of Warby Parker’s captured market, compared to just 1.2% for the wider eyewear category. As back-to-college shopping picks up steam, college students may flock to the chain to upgrade their wardrobes with trendy eyeglasses.
And though Warby Parker’s captured market features a lower share of families with children than the category average, parents – who may also get their kids fitted for new glasses before the start of the school year – make up a significant portion of the brand’s visitor base.
Warby Parker has successfully transitioned from an online retailer to a brick-and-mortar powerhouse. Will the chain continue to meet with success as it expands even further?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail insights.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
