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Fast casual extended its winning streak into April 2026, while shifting visit durations across all restaurant formats point to deeper changes in how consumers are choosing to dine.
April 2026 marked another month of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth for fast casual, with traffic rising 1.9% compared to April 2025. The consistency of that trend – visible in the chart below – speaks to the ongoing strength of the segment’s value perception as consumer sentiment declines and energy costs spike – putting pressure on household budgets. Consumers continue to weigh quality and experience against price, and fast casual – sitting between the affordability of QSR and the elevated cost of full-service – keeps clearing that bar. This could also explain the slight decline in QSR visits – for the second consecutive month – which may be reflecting rising prices that are narrowing the gap with fast casual and prompting some consumers to trade up.
Full service restaurants, meanwhile, saw their visit gap improve following March's 4.8% YoY decline – which may indicate that March's dramatic decrease may have been due to calendar shifts rather than to a sharp drop in demand. (March 2025 had five Saturdays compared to March 2026's four, which likely hurt full-service's total monthly traffic last month.) The return to modest dips suggests that, while underlying demand is facing broader macro headwinds, the pressure is less severe than last month’s outsized drop implied.
Beyond visit counts, April 2026 brought a slight shift in visit duration. Mid-length visits (10 to 30 minutes) grew their share YoY across all three segments, while the share of very short visits (under 10 minutes) declined for QSR and fast-casual and the share of longer visits (30+ minutes) fell for all three categories.
For QSR, the 10 to 30 minute visit bucket grew from 30.2% of visits in April 2025 to 31.2% in April 2026 – a meaningful shift for a segment where speed is a core value. This could reflect consumers skipping the drive-thru, and opting to park and dine-in instead, as fuel costs make idling a less economical proposition.
Fast casual visits revealed a similar pattern, as mid-length visits in the segment edged up from 34.2% in April 2025 to 35.4% in April 2026. Given that fast casual is already designed for a more relaxed dining pace than QSR, the uptick in mid-length visits might reflect a combination of factors – consumers leaning into the sit-down experience, and slightly longer wait times as the segment's sustained popularity pressures throughput.
Meanwhile, full-service visits saw a decline in the share of longer visits (30+ minutes) while the share of both short and mid-length visits increased – though longer visits still lead in overall share. Lighter checks, smaller parties, or a more purposeful approach to dining occasions could all be contributing factors.
Fast casual's sustained outperformance and the industry-wide shift toward mid-length visits both point in the same direction: consumers are engaging more selectively with dining, and the segments and brands that offer a compelling experience are pulling ahead.
For more dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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In April 2026, Home Depot's five-day return-to-office mandate took effect for corporate employees – the latest addition to a growing list of major employers requiring more in-person presence. What does the latest data reveal about the pace of recovery on the ground?
Nationwide office visits landed 29.1% below April 2019 levels in April 2026 – a slight improvement compared to April 2025. While this marks continued progress, the pace of recovery was more measured than in March, which saw a 4.2 percentage point gain when controlling for the number of working days. (April 2025 and April 2026 had the same number of working days, offering a clean basis for comparison).
Alongside the growing wave of mandates, a survey from MyPerfectResume early this year found that just 7% of employees would quit outright over a mandatory RTO policy in 2026 – down from 51% in January 2025. The shift reflects a labor market that has continued to soften, leaving workers with less leverage to push back on policies they might have resisted just a year ago.
On the other side of the ledger, rising gas prices introduced a meaningful counterweight in April, with the national average surpassing $4.00 per gallon for the first time since 2022. For daily commuters already reassessing the cost of in-office work, a jump of more than $1.00 per gallon in a single month is a significant headwind – and likely one factor behind the slower pace of gains.
Looking across eleven major office markets, nearly all posted modest YoY visit growth, led again by West Coast hubs Los Angeles and San Francisco. Once viewed as a persistent laggard, San Francisco’s AI-powered recovery has helped it avoid the bottom spot for several months running. And as the city’s narrative continues shifting from “doom loop” to “boom loop,” it is likely to keep gaining ground in the months ahead.
Denver, on the other hand, finished last in April across both measures – down 45.3% versus April 2019 and 1.1% from a year ago. With one of the most remote-friendly labor markets in the country and downtown office vacancy still hovering around 38%, the city is increasingly leaning on alternative strategies such as office-to-residential conversions to revive its urban core. Still, prime and Class A buildings remain a bright spot, as employers look to draw workers back with higher-quality spaces and perks rather than mandates alone – and as these efforts gain traction, Denver could begin to narrow the gap.
April’s data reinforces a familiar theme: The return to office remains non-linear, marked by steady but uneven progress. Mandates continue to accumulate and employer leverage has strengthened compared to last year, helping push attendance higher. But rising gas prices are adding friction – and the gap between the nation’s strongest and weakest office markets remains wide.
For more data-driven RTO reports follow Placer.ai/anchor.
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Location intelligence for Walmart and Target highlights two distinct storylines in the superstore space – one defined by sustained momentum, and the other by the early stages of a rebound.
Over the past several months, Walmart has recorded consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, with same-store visits closely tracking overall traffic – suggesting that gains are being driven primarily by existing locations rather than new store openings. This trend aligns with the company’s previously reported transaction growth, reinforcing the strength of underlying demand and serving as a positive signal as Q2 2026 progresses.
Target, on the other hand, entered 2026 under pressure, as visits trailed prior-year levels in both November and December 2025 – partly reflecting continued softness in discretionary categories, which represent a significant portion of its business.
January 2026, however, appeared to mark the beginning of a notable shift, with both overall visits and same-store visits stabilizing. The months that followed brought a meaningful traffic rebound, indicating that February’s positive sales trends may have continued, and new CEO Michael Fiddelke’s turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit. These improvements are particularly noteworthy in light of ongoing weakness in consumer sentiment and the impact of energy price hikes.
An analysis of visits to both brands by day of week adds further context to their recent performance. At Walmart and Target alike, weekday visits rose sharply YoY in Q1 2026 – marking a clear improvement for both retailers – while weekend visits remained essentially flat YoY.
For Target, this stabilization in weekend visits is notable, as prior declines had weighed on overall performance. This matters because weekends tend to capture more discretionary browsing and higher-margin categories that are central to Target’s model.
At the same time, with non-essential spending under pressure, growth anchored in steady weekday demand – reflecting routine, need-based shopping trips – suggests that both brands are reinforcing their roles as essential retail destinations. A measured, but steady, start to 2026.
AI-powered location intelligence indicates that Walmart continues to benefit from steady, need-based demand, while Target appears to be regaining traction after a softer period. Whether Target can build on this early momentum and translate it into sustained growth may be one of the more closely watched dynamics in the sector in the months ahead.
For updates, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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We're living through one of the most consequential technology shifts of our lifetimes. Generative AI is reshaping how people analyze information, make decisions, and do their work at a pace that would have seemed implausible only a few years ago. For industries like ours, where professionals rely on data to make high-stakes decisions about the physical world, the opportunity is especially exciting. Insights that once took weeks can now surface in minutes. Analytical workflows that once required specialized training can become accessible to anyone.
But that opportunity comes with real responsibility. The same capabilities that make GenAI so powerful also introduce risks such as bias, accuracy, privacy, and misuse - and those risks compound when the underlying technology is moving faster than the norms and regulations around it. The companies building with AI today are, in many ways, writing the operating rules in real time. How we choose to do that matters.
At Placer, we want to be clear about how we choose to do it. Placer doesn't build its own large language models (LLMs). Instead, we use well-established, trusted models from leading providers - the same foundation models that power the most widely adopted AI tools in the enterprise today. That's a deliberate choice. Our value to customers comes from the depth and quality of our data and the analytical expertise built around it, not from reinventing general-purpose AI infrastructure.
But not building the models ourselves doesn't let us off the hook for how we use them. If anything, it raises the bar. When we embed GenAI into our platform, whether as an analytical assistant, an automated summary, or a future agent that helps professionals move faster through their workflows, our customers trust us with the outcome. They're trusting us to pick the right models, apply the right guardrails, protect their data, and be transparent about what the technology is and isn't doing.
That's why we're publishing our Responsible AI Principles today. They're clear, concise, and they reflect how we actually operate.
The four Responsible AI principles address the issues we believe matter most to the professionals who rely on Placer every day:
Fairness and bias mitigation. AI systems can reflect and amplify existing biases in their training data. Our core defense is something we've been doing since long before GenAI: continuously validating our models, monitoring our AI practices and de-biasing outputs where appropriate.
Transparency and accountability. When we use GenAI in customer-facing features, we say so. We build feedback mechanisms into the product and treat that feedback as a real input to how the system evolves.
Privacy by design. Our AI tools are built to identify patterns about places and brands, not individuals. The same strict privacy measures that govern the rest of the Placer platform apply to every new GenAI feature we ship.
Security and safety. We are responsible custodians of our customers' data and are committed to safeguarding its integrity using industry leading standards.
We've also published a clear statement on how Placer's GenAI capabilities may be used and what restrictions we apply. These aren't new restrictions; they extend the responsible-use commitments that have always governed how our data can be used.
We're excited about the era of GenAI and about the value these new capabilities will create for our customers. The AI principles we're publishing are part of a broader effort across the company that’s grounded in a simple idea: trust isn't something we claim once and move on from. It's something we earn in every feature we ship.
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April 2025 set a high bar for movie theater performance, with A Minecraft Movie (April 4) and Sinners (April 18) driving significant spikes in foot traffic. Against this strong comparison, year-over-year (YoY) theater visits trended negative through much of April 2026. This followed a stronger March 2026, when releases like Scream 7 and Project Hail Mary – and easier comparisons – helped sustain significant YoY traffic gains
While the highly anticipated The Devil Wears Prada 2 (released May 1) did not generate a meaningful YoY uplift – given the difficult April 2025 comparison – it appears to have helped stabilize visitation trends, halting the declines seen in prior weeks.
Overall, the data reinforces that theater traffic remains highly blockbuster-driven, with consumers still willing to return to theaters when content feels like a must-see experience. With a slate of major releases ahead – including Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu in late May and Toy Story 5 in mid-June – the sector is likely to see renewed spikes in visitation tied to tentpole premieres.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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April data indicates positive momentum for the mall sector, with year-over-year (YoY) traffic increases across all three formats analyzed – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls. This performance is particularly notable given the strong April baseline last year, when traffic rose between 3.7% and 4.3% across formats compared to April 2024.
Open-air centers came out on top, extending a trend in place since December 2025, with visits rising 3.5% YoY. This marks a return to the top growth position after ceding the lead to indoor malls for much of 2025. Indoor malls followed with a 2.2% increase, while outlet malls lagged behind, posting a modest 0.5% YoY gain in April 2025 – potentially reflecting greater sensitivity to elevated gas prices in recent weeks.
At the same time, the average visit duration declined YoY, with all formats experiencing a shift toward shorter visits (under 30 minutes) and a corresponding drop in longer visits (45+ minutes).
This divergence between rising traffic and shorter dwell times suggests that a growing share of consumers are engaging in more mission-driven trips – visiting with a specific purpose in mind rather than for extended browsing. As a result, malls may be seeing more targeted, efficiency-oriented behavior that could concentrate spend within fewer stores per trip.
Still, this shift does not signal a wholesale move away from malls as destinations: across formats, over 40% of visits continue to last more than 60 minutes, indicating that a significant segment of consumers remains engaged in longer, more experiential visits even as quick trips become more prevalent.
April’s data suggests that malls are evolving to meet a wider range of consumer needs. The combination of rising traffic and varied visit lengths suggests that malls are successfully functioning both as convenient, mission-driven retail hubs and as destinations for longer, experiential outings. This dual role may ultimately prove to be a strength, enabling operators and tenants to capture multiple trip types and occasions. If sustained, these trends position the sector for continued resilience, with opportunities to further optimize tenant mix, merchandising strategies, and on-site experiences to align with increasingly dynamic consumer behavior.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Grabbing a coffee or snack at a convenience store is a time-honored road trip tradition – but increasingly, Convenience Stores (C-Stores) have also emerged as places people go out of their way to visit.
Convenience stores have thrived in recent years, making inroads into the discretionary dining space and growing both their audiences and their sales. Between April 2023 and March 2024, C-Stores experienced consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, generally outperforming Overall Retail. Unsurprisingly, C-Stores fell behind Overall Retail in November and December 2023, when holiday shoppers flocked to malls and superstores to buy gifts for loved ones. But in January 2024, the segment regained its lead, growing YoY visits even as Overall Retail languished in the face of an Arctic blast that had many consumers hunkering down at home.
C-Stores’ current strength is partially due to the significant innovation by leading players in the space: Chains like Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s are investing in both in their product offerings and in their physical venues to transform the humble C-Store from a stop along the way into a bona fide destination. Dive into the data to explore some of the key strategies helping C-Stores drive consumer engagement and stay ahead of the pack.
While chain expansion may explain some of the C-Store segment growth, a look at visit-per-location trends shows that demand is growing at the store level as well. Over the past year (April 2023 to March 2024), average visits per location on an industry-wide basis grew by 1.8%, compared to the year prior (April 2022 to 2023).
And within this growing segment, some brands are distinguishing themselves and outperforming category averages. Casey’s, for example, saw the average number of visits to each of its locations increase by 2.3% over the same time frame – while Maverik, Buc-ee’s and Rutter’s saw visits per location increase by 3.2%, 3.4% and 3.9%, respectively.
Each in its own way, Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s, are helping to transform C-Stores from pit stops where people can stretch their legs and grab a cup of coffee to destinations in and of themselves.
Midwestern gas and c-store chain Casey’s – famous for its breakfast pizza and other grab-and-go breakfast items – has emerged as a prime spot for fast food pizza lovers to grab a slice first thing in the morning. And Salt Lake City, Utah-based Maverik – which recently acquired Kum & Go and its 400-plus stores – is also establishing itself as a breakfast destination thanks to its specialty burritos and other chef-inspired creations.
Casey’s and Maverik’s popular breakfast options are likely helping the chains receive its larger-than-average share of morning visits: In Q1 2024, 16.3% of visits to Maverik and 17.5% of visits to Casey’s took place during the 7:00 AM - 10:00 AM daypart, compared to just 14.9% of visits to the wider C-Store category.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – also suggests that Casey’s and Maverik’s have opened stores in locations that allow them to reach their target audience. Compared to the average consumer, residents of Casey’s potential market are 7% more likely to be “Fast Food Pizza Lovers” than both the average consumer and the average C-Store trade area resident. Residents of Maverik’s potential market are 16% more likely than the average consumer to be “Mexican Food Enthusiasts,” compared to residents of the average C-Store’s trade area who are only 1% more likely to fall into that category.
With both chains expanding, Casey’s and Maverik can hope to introduce new audiences to their unique breakfast options and solidify their hold over the morning daypart within the C-Store space over the next few years.
Everything is said to be bigger in the Lone Star State, and Texas-based convenience store chain Buc-ee’s – holder of the record for the worlds’ largest C-Store – is no exception. With a unique array of specialty food items and award-winning bathrooms, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a well-known tourist attraction. And the popular chain’s status as a visitor hotspot is reflected in two key metrics.
First, Buc-ee’s attracts a much greater share of weekend visits than other convenience store chains. In Q1 2024, 39.6% of visits to Buc-ee’s took place on the weekends, compared to just 28.3% for the wider C-Store industry. And second, Buc-ee’s captured markets feature higher-than-average shares of family-centric households – including those belonging to Experian: Mosaic’s Suburban Style, Flourishing Families, and Promising Families segments.
Rather than merely a place to stop on the way to work, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a favored destination for families and for people looking for something fun to do on their days off.
Buc-ee’s isn’t the only C-Store chain that believes bigger is better. Pennsylvania-based Rutter’s is increasing visits and customer dwell time by expanding its footprint – both in terms of store count and venue size. New stores will be 10,000 to 12,000 square feet – significantly larger than the industry average of around 3,100 square feet. And in more urban areas, where space is at a premium, the company is building upwards.
Rutter’s added a second floor to one of its existing locations in York, PA in December 2023. The remodel, which was met with enthusiasm by customers, provided additional seating for up to 30 diners, a beer cave, and an expanded wine selection. And in Q1 2024, the location experienced 15.6% YoY visit growth – compared to a chainwide average of 7.6%. Visitors to the newly remodeled Rutter’s also stayed significantly longer than they did pre-renovation. The share of extended visits to the store (longer than ten minutes) grew from 20.8% in Q1 2023 to 27.0% in Q1 2024 – likely from people browsing the chain’s selection of beers or grabbing a bite to eat.
Convenience stores are flourishing, transforming into some of the most exciting dining and tourist destinations in the country. Today, C-Store customers can expect to find brisket sandwiches, gourmet coffees, or craft beers, rather than the stale cups of coffee of old. And the data shows that customers are receptive to these innovations, helping drive the segment’s success.
The first quarter of 2024 was generally a good one for retailers. Though unusually cold and stormy weather left its mark on the sector’s January performance, February and March saw steady year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit growth that grew more robust as the quarter wore on.
March ended on a high note, with the week of March 25th – including Easter Sunday – seeing a 6.1% YoY visit boost, driven in part by increased retail activity in the run-up to the holiday. (Last year, Easter fell on April 9th, 2023, so the week of March 25th is being compared to a regular week.)
Though prices remain high and consumer confidence has yet to fully regain its footing, retail’s healthy Q1 showing may be a sign of good things to come in 2024.
Drilling down into the data for leading retail segments demonstrates the continued success of value-priced, essential, and wellness-related categories.
Discount & Dollar Stores led the pack with 11.2% YoY quarterly visit growth, followed by Grocery Stores, Fitness, and Superstores – all of which outperformed Overall Retail. Dining also enjoyed a YoY quarterly visit bump, despite the segment’s largely discretionary nature. And despite the high interest rates continuing to weigh on the housing and home renovation markets, Home Improvement & Furnishings maintained just a minor YoY visit gap.
Discount & Dollar Stores experienced strong YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – and as go-to destinations for groceries and other other essential goods, they held their own even during mid-January’s Arctic blast. In the last week of March, shoppers flocked to leading discount chains for everything from chocolate Easter bunnies to basket-making supplies – driving a remarkable 21.5% YoY visit spike.
Dollar General continued to dominate the Discount & Dollar Store space in Q1, with visits to its locations accounting for nearly half of the segment’s quarterly foot traffic (44.7%). Next in line was Dollar Tree, followed by Family Dollar and Five Below. Together, the four chains – all of which experienced positive YoY quarterly visit growth – drew a whopping 91.6% of quarterly visits to the category.
Rain or shine, people have to eat. And like Discount & Dollar Stores, traditional Grocery Stores were relatively busy through January as shoppers braved the storms to stock up on needed items. Momentum continued to build throughout the quarter, culminating in a 10.5% foot traffic increase in the week ending with Easter Sunday.
Like in other categories, it was budget-friendly Grocery banners that took the lead. No-frills Aldi drove a chain-wide 24.4% foot traffic increase in Q1, by expanding its fleet – while also growing the average number of visits per location. Other value-oriented chains, including Trader Joe’s and Food Lion, experienced significant foot traffic increases of their own. And though conventional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger, and Albertsons saw smaller visit bumps, they too outperformed Q1 2023 by meaningful margins.
January is New Year’s resolution season – when people famously pick themselves up off the couch, dust off their trainers, and vow to go to the gym more often. And with wellness still top of mind for many consumers, the Fitness category enjoyed robust YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – despite lapping a strong Q1 2023.
Predictably, Fitness’s visit growth slowed during the last week of March, when many Americans likely indulged in Easter treats rather than work out. But given the category’s strength over the past several years, there is every reason to believe it will continue to flourish.
For Fitness chains, too, cost was key to success in Q1 – with value gyms experiencing the biggest visit jumps. EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, both of which offer low-cost membership options, saw their Q1 visits skyrocket 28.9% and 22.0% YoY, respectively – helped in part by aggressive expansions. At the same time, premium and mid-range gyms like Life Time and LA Fitness are also finding success – showing that when it comes to Fitness, there’s plenty of room for a variety of models to thrive.
Superstores – including wholesale clubs – are prime destinations for big, planned shopping expeditions – during which customers can load up on a month’s supply of food items or stock up on home goods. And perhaps for this reason, the category felt the impact of January’s inclement weather more than either dollar chains or supermarkets – which are more likely to see shoppers pop in as needed for daily essentials.
But like Grocery Stores and Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores ended the quarter with an impressive YoY visit spike, likely fueled by Easter holiday shoppers.
As in Q4 2023, membership warehouse chains – Costco Wholesale, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club – drove much of the Superstore category’s positive visit growth, as shoppers likely engaged in mission-driven shopping in an effort to stretch their budgets. Still, segment mainstays Walmart and Target also enjoyed positive foot traffic growth, with YoY visits up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively.
Moving into more discretionary territory, Dining experienced a marked January slump, as hunkered-down consumers likely opted for delivery. But the segment rallied in February and March, even though foot traffic dipped slightly during the last week of March, when many families gathered to enjoy home-cooked holiday meals.
Coffee Chains and Fast-Casual Restaurants saw the largest YoY visit increases, followed by QSR – highlighting the enduring power of lower-cost, quick-serve dining options. But Full-Service Restaurants (FSR) also saw a slight segment-wide YoY visit uptick in Q1 – good news for a sector that has yet to bounce back from the one-two punch of COVID and inflation. Within each Dining category, however, some chains experienced outsize visit growth – including favorites like Dutch Bros. Coffee, Slim Chickens, In-N-Out Burger, and Texas Roadhouse.
Since the shelter-in-place days of COVID – when everybody had their sourdough starter and DIY was all the rage – Home Improvement & Furnishings chains have faced a tough environment. Many deferred or abandoned home improvement projects in the wake of inflation, and elevated interest rates coupled with a sluggish housing market put a further damper on the category.
Against this backdrop, Home Improvement & Furnishings’ relatively lackluster Q1 visit performance should come as no surprise. But the narrowing of the visit gap in March – which also saw one week of positive visit growth – may serve as a promising sign for the segment. (The abrupt foot traffic drop during the week of March 25th, 2024 is likely a just reflection of Easter holiday shopping pattern.)
Within the Home Improvement & Furnishings space, some bright spots stood out in Q1 – including Harbor Freight Tools, which saw visits increase by 10.0%, partly due to the brand’s growing store count. Tractor Supply Co., Menards, and Ace Hardware also registered visit increases.
January 2024’s stormy weather left its mark on the Q1 retail environment, especially for discretionary categories. But as the quarter progressed, retailers rallied, with healthy YoY foot traffic growth that peaked during the last week of March – the week of Easter Sunday. All in all, retail’s positive Q1 performance leaves plenty of room for optimism about what’s in store for the rest of 2024.
