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A common theme that spanned across the post-pandemic period of the retail industry has been resilience. Each time consumers throughout the United States faced adversity, they seemed to come back even stronger, often defying logic and expectations. Revenge spending often became the norm for many shoppers over the past six years, even as consumers accumulated mounting debts, utilized buy-now-pay-later services, and faced steep price increases due to tariffs and inflation. It has led to the question or if – or when – consumers might finally reach their breaking point.
The answer to that question might just be revealing itself to the retail industry in real time. In the face of rising prices across retail goods, services, and gasoline – particularly since the outbreak of the Iran War – consumers appear to be finally hitting the pause button on retail visitation in a stark way.
This coincides with another sobering statistic regarding consumer sentiment. According to the University of Michigan’s Monthly Survey of Consumers, which tracks consumer sentiment over time since the 1950’s, the May 2026 sentiment index fell to 44.8 – the lowest sentiment recorded since the inception of the survey. Consumers are feeling the pressure in all aspects of life, and their outlook is bleak on areas like the economy and their personal financial situations.
Despite the somewhat strong start to retail visitation in 2026, partially due to favorable comparable periods against early 2025, since mid-April there has been a noticeable change in retail traffic, both to discretionary and non-discretionary sectors. According to the same consumer sentiment index, April stood at 49.8, which was down 4 points from March.
While visitation to the Placer 100 index, which includes 100 of largest retail chains across the U.S., and non-discretionary retail categories are still showing slight growth year-over-year, discretionary categories have declined. At the same time, it should be remembered that this period is being compared to last year’s pre-tariff rally among shoppers, which may also be impacting discretionary consumption.
Still, discretionary purchases are a logical place for the consumer to begin altering their consumption, especially for lower and middle-income shoppers who might be disproportionately impacted by rising fuel costs. Even with value-based options – like off-price retail – anything that is considered a “want” vs. a “need” are being reconsidered.
Waning consumer sentiment and increased economic uncertainty can both spur this change in behavior, and with sentiment at a record low, it’s clear that shoppers are trying to save instead of splurge right now.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
We recently attended the 2026 National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago, and the mood on the floor reflected an industry navigating a more complicated demand environment than it faced a year ago. With gas and grocery prices ticking higher over the past few months, consumers are once again tightening their belts and scrutinizing every dining decision, leaving operators to fight harder for share of stomach against a wider range of food retailers. Yet despite the headwinds, the show also surfaced plenty of bright spots: some chains are still driving traffic gains through new products, sharper value messaging, and operational improvements – from menu innovation to loyalty and tech-enabled efficiency – that are resonating with cautious diners. The takeaways below unpack where the pressure is greatest, who's breaking through anyway, and what it all signals for the back half of 2026.
Placer’s visitation trends reinforce this uncertain consumer environment. Below, we show weekly year-over-year visit trends for the QSR, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining categories. After a strong start to February – partly the result of lapping the macroeconomic uncertainty a year ago amid the initial tariff announcements – visitation trends for the QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments have generally fallen year-over-year (YoY) the past few months. Meanwhile, visits to fine dining restaurants have generally increased YoY, with affluent consumers feeling more confident about the macroeconomic environment given recent stock market highs.
Even as caution returned to the consumer, several chains showcased at and around the show stood out as clear traffic winners through Q1. In fast casual, CAVA continued to look like the category's runaway story, posting 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth driven by a striking 6.8% jump in guest traffic – outpacing peers including Chipotle, which has been working through a "Recipe for Growth" turnaround after stretches of negative comps.
In the burger and Mexican QSR space, Burger King delivered a 5.8% U.S. comp gain in Q1 – its biggest lift in years – fueled by family-friendly SpongeBob and Mandalorian tie-ins, while Taco Bell once again served as Yum! Brands' growth engine, leveraging sharp value pricing, steady menu innovation, and a deep digital loyalty program to broaden its appeal across income cohorts.
Coffee was also a frequent topic of conversation at the 2026 NRA Show. Dutch Bros has now strung together five-plus quarters of traffic-led same-store sales gains and is rolling out hot breakfast nationwide. Meanwhile, 7 Brew has emerged as the segment's hottest growth story – posting eye-popping traffic gains and on pace to add more than 400 units in 2026 alone – even as Starbucks continues to navigate a turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol.
Regional QSR burger favorites are pressing their advantage as well. In-N-Out is pushing into Tennessee, Washington, and other new markets, Whataburger continues to extend its footprint outside the Southeast, and Culver's is rolling out a series of menu, technology, and experience updates aimed at sustaining the cult-like loyalty that has long set these regional players apart. In fact, Culver’s might be the story of the QSR category right now, posting same-store visits that ranked among the upper echelon of QSR chains during the first quarter.
One of the most persistent themes at this year's show was that restaurants are no longer just competing with each other for share of stomach. Grocery stores, convenience chains, and warehouse clubs are rapidly upgrading their prepared food offerings, and in many cases capturing everyday meal occasions that restaurants once owned.
Grocery retailers are expanding prepared foods and meals-on-the-go and positioning them as a more affordable alternative to both home cooking and a drive-thru run, while c-stores like 7-Eleven, QuikTrip, and Wawa have invested heavily in made-to-order menus, full kitchens, and even branded QSR partnerships that increasingly rival traditional fast food. Warehouse clubs are pushing in the same direction – Sam's Club, for example, is rolling out fresh, ready-to-serve meals – leaving restaurant operators to defend their turf against a much broader, and noticeably hungrier, retail food ecosystem. YoY visit trends for the QSR category have underperformed other food-at-home categories like grocery stores and superstores over the past twelve months, underscoring this meaningful channel shift.
Taken together, the 2026 show painted a picture of an industry at an inflection point. The tailwinds of pent-up post-pandemic demand have given way to a more discerning consumer, a wider competitive set, and thinner margins for error. The chains that are winning share are doing so with a clear playbook: relevant menu innovation, disciplined value, sticky loyalty, and operational investments that make the experience faster and easier.
As we head into the back half of 2026, the gap between the operators executing on those fundamentals and those still searching for an answer is likely to widen further. The pressure on the industry is real, but so is the opportunity – and the brands willing to keep adapting to where the consumer is actually headed should remain well-positioned to come out ahead.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie dominated the 2026 box office and drove a massive spike in theater visits – but the real story goes beyond ticket sales.
Location analytics as well as audience survey data from The People's Platform reveal how the blockbuster reshaped who went to the movies, how they spent their time, and where they spent their money afterward. Families with children made up a larger share of theater audiences, with theater trade areas reflecting broader economic diversity than any Q1 2026 release. The film also fueled a surge in morning matinee attendance and contributed to shorter average theater dwell times thanks to its family-friendly runtime. And during the first two weeks of the movie's release, the data shows an increase in post-movie theater QSR visitation as families extended the outing beyond the screening itself.
For the full analysis, read the article here.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Iran conflict and resulting supply disruptions pushed average U.S. gas prices from $2.80 per gallon in early January to $4.49 by mid-May – a nearly 60% increase. And while consumers initially appeared willing to absorb higher fuel costs, recent traffic patterns suggest that sustained pressure at the pump may finally be impacting behavior.
When gas prices initially began rising in early March 2026, both retail and fuel demand remained relatively resilient. As the chart below shows, discretionary retail and gas station visits hovered near or above prior-year levels – indicating that consumers were largely maintaining their shopping and driving habits. Meanwhile, non-discretionary retail traffic continued to post modest year-over-year (YoY) gains, perhaps a product of ongoing macroeconomic instability and the overall strength of essentials-based retail.
The Easter calendar shift – with the holiday falling on April 20th in 2025 and April 5th in 2026 – even provided a temporary lift across all three categories, which may have masked some of the early effects of rising fuel prices. Non-discretionary retail saw the strongest Easter impact – visits rose 10.0% YoY during the week of March 30th, 2026 – as consumers prepared for holiday gatherings. Easter-related travel also appears to have supported gas station visits, which increased 1.3% and 2.2% YoY the weeks of March 30th and April 6th, respectively. Discretionary retail benefited from the calendar shift as well, with visits increasing 5.0% YoY the week of April 6th, and 5.8% YoY the week of April 13th – likely driven by a combination of post-Easter promotions and spring break travel.
Following a temporary Easter-related lift, location intelligence suggests that consumer behavior reached an inflection point in mid-April. The week of April 13th marked both the second consecutive week in which average gas prices exceeded $4.00 per gallon and the first week since the start of the supply disruption that gas station visits fell below year-ago levels. Since then, gas stations have experienced persistent YoY visitation declines, suggesting that consumers may be driving less or holding out between fill-ups.
Beginning the week of April 20th, discretionary retail traffic also slipped below prior-year levels – pointing to a potential pullback in non-essential shopping trips. Non-discretionary retail proved more resilient, remaining near or above the previous year’s levels from that week onward (a brief YoY visit gap the week of April 13th was likely due to the Easter calendar shift). And yet, even visits to essentials-based categories dipped below prior-year levels the week of May 18th, indicating that consumers may be shopping more deliberately or consolidating trips as transportation costs rise.
While consumers initially appeared willing to absorb higher fuel costs, recent foot traffic trends suggest that prolonged high prices at the pump have influenced fill-up and retail behavior across the board. However, if consumers continue to see some relief, that pressure could ease in the weeks ahead.
Want to stay informed on the latest consumer behavior trends? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Jersey Mike's is perhaps the fastest-growing sandwich chain in America, and now, a planned IPO at a reported $12 billion valuation has put the brand firmly in the spotlight.
But can Jersey Mike’s sustain its monumental growth? Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed the data to understand whether demand is strong enough to support the chain's ambitious expansion, and see how its consumer base is evolving as its footprint grows.
Jersey Mike’s ended 2025 with approximately 3,256 locations, adding 238 net new units over the course of the year – part of a multi-year expansion strategy that ultimately envisions roughly 8,000 U.S. restaurants. Maintaining that pace without cannibalizing existing foot traffic is the central operational challenge for any aggressively expanding chain.
As the chart below shows, Jersey Mike’s sustained year-over-year (YoY) overall visit growth over the last twelve months – consistent with the chain’s continued expansion. Meanwhile, same-store visits – which capture traffic to restaurants open for at least a year – remained stable through most of the period before turning positive in early 2026. This pattern suggests that new locations are generating incremental traffic without pulling visits from existing stores, signaling sustained demand even as Jersey Mike's continues to expand rapidly.
Beyond raw visit growth, analysis of Jersey Mike’s offline audience offers additional insight into the brand's expansion strategy.
According to management, Jersey Mike’s audience skews affluent – a trend that is reflected in the data. The median household incomes (HHIs) of the chain’s potential market (the census block groups (CBGs) from which restaurants attract visitors) and captured market (which reflects the share of actual visits from each CBG) both sit firmly above the nationwide benchmark of $87.3K/year.
However, the gap between Jersey Mike’s potential and captured median HHI appears to be closing. Since 2022, potential market median HHI has risen steadily, pointing to a disciplined real estate strategy. By placing new stores in trade areas that already align with the brand's higher-income visitor profile, these locations may be better positioned for success from day one.
Meanwhile, captured median HHI has eased, signaling increased demand among a more diverse segment of diners. This growing mainstream appeal may partly reflect high-profile marketing campaigns featuring Danny DeVito and Eli Manning – the latter tied to the chain's recent partnership with the NFL. Macroeconomic conditions may also be contributing, with fast casual concepts increasingly emerging as a sweet spot for value-conscious consumers balancing quality, experience, and price.
The narrowing gap between potential and captured median HHI suggests Jersey Mike's has both a well-defined core consumer and meaningful room to expand beyond it – a powerful combination as the chain enters its next phase of growth.
Jersey Mike’s growth story is about more than rapid expansion. The data suggests the chain is pairing disciplined real estate growth with widening mainstream appeal – a combination that could support both its potential IPO ambitions and its continued dominance in the sub sandwich space.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Consumers aren’t shying away from testing out new hobbies, despite economic headwinds and changes in sentiment. Perhaps, it is actually a response to those factors that have consumers rushing to embrace new activities or socializing with others. Hobbies can act as a small indulgence for shoppers looking for ways to treat themselves at retail without a larger financial investment.
Typically small indulgences are often associated with categories like beauty or coffee chains, but hobby related retail traffic is also on the rise in areas like craft, books and paper. Consumers looking for activities and third places outside of their homes and offices to socialize have boosted games like Mahjong over the past year, which have prompted retailers to follow the trends and increase assortments that speak to these new interests.
Hobby related retailers have been steadily growing visits over the past year, particularly in the book and craft spaces.
Crafting activities like junk journaling, scrapbooking, needlepoint, and diamond art are all trending, leading to increased interest for chains like Michaels and Hobby Lobby to capture. Crafting retail has consolidated over the past few years with the loss of JOANN, but the demand has shifted to the remaining retailers.
The book category was a leader in 2025, and that momentum hasn’t slowed in 2026. The rise in book clubs as a socialization method has boosted the book industry as a hobby adjacent category. Barnes & Noble also has embraced retail as a third place through community events like storytimes and author events, as well as its cafe. Hobbies can be a catalyst for consumers to check out these retailers, but each of these chains has created reasons for shoppers to return frequently.
The paper category is one that hasn’t seen the same meteoric rise as crafts or books, but it is on the rebound. Paper Source has taken a few pages from its sister-brand Barnes & Noble on diversifying its assortment through areas like gifting and crafting. As consumers grapple with an increasingly digital existence, there does seem to still be a growing affinity for analogue activities and communication including invitations and thank-you notes. Retailers like Paper Source represent how small indulgences can show up for consumers in 2026; even with a smaller price tag, finding joy at retail is unmatched.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth.
The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
What is driving the coffee industry’s remarkable category-wide growth? And who are the customers behind it? This white paper dives into the data to explore key factors driving foot traffic to leading coffee chains in early 2024. The report explores the demographic and psychographic characteristics of visitors to major players in the coffee space and examines strategies brands can use to make the most of the opportunity presented by a thriving industry.
One factor shaping the surge in coffee visit growth is the slow-but-sure return-to-office (RTO). Hybrid work may be the post-COVID new normal – but RTO mandates and WFH fatigue have led to steady increases in office foot traffic over the past year. And in some major hubs – including New York and Miami – office visits are back to more than 80.0% of what they were pre-pandemic.
A look at shifting Starbucks visitation patterns shows that customer journeys and behavior increasingly reflect those of office-goers. In April and May 2022, for example, 18.6% of Starbucks visitors proceeded to their workplace immediately following their coffee stop – but by 2024, this share shot up to 21.0%.
Over the same period, the percentage of early morning (7:00 to 10:00 AM) Starbucks visits lasting less than 10 minutes also increased significantly – from 64.3% in 2022 to 68.7% in 2024. More customers are picking up their coffee on the go – many of them on the way to work – rather than settling down to enjoy it on-site.
Dunkin’ is another chain that is benefiting from consumers on the go. Examining the coffee giant’s performance across major regional markets – those where the chain maintains a significant presence – reveals a strong correlation between the share of Dunkin’ visits in each state lasting less than five minutes and the chain’s local YoY trajectory.
In Wisconsin, for example, 50.9% of visits to Dunkin’ between January and May 2024 lasted less than five minutes. And Wisconsin also saw the most impressive YoY visit growth (5.9%). Illinois, Ohio, Maine, and Connecticut followed similar patterns, with high shares of very short visits and strong YoY showings.
On the other end of the spectrum lay Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, where very short visits accounted for a low share of the chain’s statewide total – under 40.% – and where visits declined YoY.
Dunkin’s success with very short visits may be driven in part by its popular app, which makes it easy for harried customers to place their order online and save time in-store. And this is good news indeed for the coffee leader – since customers using the app also tend to generate bigger tickets.
Dutch Bros.’ meteoric rise has been fueled, in part, by its appeal to younger audiences. Recently ranked as Gen Z’s favorite quick-service restaurant, the rapidly-expanding coffee chain sets itself apart with a strong brand identity built on cultivating a positive, friendly customer experience.
And Dutch Bros.’ people-centered approach is resonating especially well with singles – including young adults living alone – who may particularly appreciate the chain’s community atmosphere.
Analyzing the relative performance of Dutch Bros.’ locations across metro areas – focusing on regions where the chain has a strong local presence – shows that it performs best in areas with plenty of singles. Indeed, the share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ local captured markets is very strongly correlated with the coffee brand’s CBSA-level YoY per-location visit performance. Areas with higher concentrations of one-person households saw significantly more YoY visit growth in the first part of 2024. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
The share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ Tucson, AZ captured market, for example, stands at 33.4% – well above the nationwide baseline of 27.5%. And between January and May 2024, Tucson-area Dutch Bros. saw a 6.0% increase in the average number of visits per location. Tulsa, OK, Medford, OR, and Oklahoma City, OK – which also feature high shares of one-person households (over 30.0%) – similarly saw per-location visit increases ranging from 3.6% - 7.0%. On the flip side, Fresno, CA, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, which feature lower-than-average shares of single-person households, saw YoY per-location visit declines ranging from 1.5%-9.5%.
As Dutch Bros. forges ahead with its planned expansions, it may benefit from doubling down on this trends and focusing its development efforts on markets with higher-than-average shares of one-person households – such as university towns or urban areas with lots of young professionals.
Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE is another java winner in expansion mode. With a growth strategy focused on emerging markets with less brand saturation, BIGGBY has been setting its sights on small towns and rural areas throughout the Midwest and South. Though the chain does have locations in bigger cities like Detroit and Cincinnati, some of its most significant markets are in smaller population centers.
And a look at the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top-performing locations in early 2024 shows that they are significantly over-indexed for suburban consumers – both compared to BIGGBY as a whole and compared to nationwide baselines. (Top-performing locations are defined as those that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth between January and May 2024).
“Suburban Boomers”, for example – a Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment encompassing middle-class empty-nesters living in suburbs – comprised 10.6% of BIGGBY’s top captured markets in early 2024, compared to just 6.6% for BIGGBY’s overall. (The nationwide baseline for Suburban Boomers is even lower – 4.4%.) And Upper Diverse Suburban Families – a segment made up of upper-middle-class suburbanites – accounted for 9.6% of the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top locations, compared to just 7.2% for BIGGBY’s as a whole, and 8.3% nationwide.
Coffee has long been one of America’s favorite beverages. And java chains that offer consumers an enjoyable, affordable way to splurge are expanding both their footprints and their audiences. By leaning into shifting work routines and catering to customers’ varying habits and preferences, major coffee players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are continuing to thrive.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
