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Consumers continue to prioritize health and wellness, putting the fitness space in a strong position even as economic headwinds and value-seeking shape discretionary spending. With 2026 now underway – and the industry’s peak sign-up season in motion – we took a closer look at Planet Fitness, one of the category’s largest players, alongside broader fitness trends to put our finger on the pulse of fitness in 2026.
Through most of 2025, Planet Fitness – and the fitness category as a whole – maintained YoY monthly visit growth. February 2025 marked the lone dip in visits for both Planet Fitness and the broader category, likely driven by inclement weather that temporarily kept some consumers out of gyms.
And Planet Fitness’ growth outpaced the wider category nearly every month, with the chain's momentum likely reflecting continued expansion – part of its multi-year growth strategy. Planet Fitness’ average visits per location were also up YoY – aligned with overall category levels – suggesting new gyms are meeting incremental demand rather than redistributing existing traffic.
In January 2026, Planet Fitness continued to experience visit growth, perhaps as New Year’s resolution-driven sign-ups helped lift traffic. Combined with the chain’s ongoing unit expansion, this dynamic could support continued gains as the brand moves further into 2026.
Planet Fitness’ recent gains may also reflect a broader shift within the fitness landscape toward low-priced membership models.
The chart below shows that since at least the start of 2024, visits to budget-friendly gym chains (monthly fees under $30) such as Planet Fitness have consistently outpaced those to mid-tier ($30-$60) and premium competitors ($60+).
But the divergence became more pronounced beginning in early 2025, when traffic growth of premium fitness chains fell off sharply while low-priced gyms continued to see visits accelerate. In a retail environment defined by heightened price sensitivity and value-seeking, lower-cost memberships appear to be resonating with consumers looking to manage discretionary spending while higher-cost concepts face mounting pressure.
Moreover, once a gym membership is paid for, price-conscious consumers could be leaning more heavily into fitness visits as a way to spend time outside the home without opening their wallets – especially as other “going out” activities have become more expensive.
As the fitness industry moves through the early months of 2026, one of the most telling indicators to watch is visitor frequency. During the peak sign-up season, this metric offers an early read on member engagement – and on whether new joiners are building habits that support longer-term retention.
In January 2026, visitor frequency to Planet Fitness held steady, even as several other analyzed gym chains saw slight declines. The dip elsewhere may be partly attributable to Storm Fern, which likely disrupted routines and temporarily curtailed gym visits across affected regions. Against that backdrop, Planet Fitness’ stable frequency stands out as a relative bright spot.
Still, with resolution-driven sign-ups typically extending through much of Q1, it may be too early to draw firm conclusions about full-year performance. As weather-related effects fade and new members settle into routines, frequency trends over the coming months should offer clearer insight into how the category – and Planet Fitness in particular – is positioned for the rest of 2026.
Planet Fitness’ ability to grow visits, sustain per-location demand, and hold visitor frequency steady early in 2026 suggests the brand is benefiting from both internal strategy and favorable category-level tailwinds. While it remains early in the year, the underlying trends indicate that low-cost fitness models, and Planet Fitness in particular, are well-positioned as consumers prioritize cost-effective ways to stay active.
Which gyms will grow in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Super Bowl LX kicked off on Sunday, February 8th at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, but celebrations across the Bay Area – from fan festivals and concerts to immersive cultural activations – began well before game day.
An AI-powered analysis of two marquee Super Bowl week events – the Ferry Building Projection Show and Chris Stapleton’s concert at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium – highlights the role pre-game attractions played in extending the championship into a multi-day driver of regional foot traffic.
Between February 5th and 7th – the three nights leading up to the Super Bowl – San Francisco’s iconic Ferry Building became the canvas for a large-scale projection show celebrating 60 years of Super Bowl history. Comparing evening visits during the installation to the nightly average since January 1st, 2025 highlights the magnitude of the crowds drawn downtown for the spectacle.
The Ferry Building is no stranger to major surges in visitation tied to visual events. On July 4th, 2025, visits to the area were 217.5% above the daily average as fireworks lit up the Bay, while New Year’s Eve drove an even larger spike of 336.9%. Other recent activations – including a drone light show on October 8th and the multi-day “Let’s Glow SF” installation from December 5th to 14th – also generated noticeable visit increases.
But, the pre-Super Bowl Projection Show stood apart. Evening visits to the Ferry Building spiked by 141.6% on the first night of the installation and by 265.7% on the second. On the eve of the Super Bowl, February 7th, visits surged 479.1% above the nightly average, surpassing every other evening visit peak observed over the previous twelve months. This shows that the event was not only visually compelling, but also exceptionally effective at drawing crowds into the city core during Super Bowl week.
While the Ferry Building Projection Show was a major draw in its own right, many attendees treated it as just one stop on a broader evening itinerary.
Location intelligence shows that 18.2% of visitors to the projection show also made an evening visit to Moscone Center, home of the Super Bowl LX Experience between February 3rd and 7th. Other popular destinations included Pier 39, Ghirardelli Square, and the Fillmore Shopping District – all well-established tourist and retail corridors.
Regional indoor shopping centers also benefited from an influx of visitors. Serramonte Center and Stonestown Galleria ranked among the more common evening stops for projection show attendees, a pattern that could suggest travelers sought warm, indoor environments for dining and shopping after spending time along the waterfront.
Taken together, the data indicates that Super Bowl-themed activations drove visit spikes while generating spillover benefits for a diverse mix of retail, dining, and entertainment destinations across the Bay Area.
Among Super Bowl week’s most anticipated and in-demand ticketed events was Chris Stapleton’s concert at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium on February 7th.
With limited ticket availability and a premium price-tag, the concert drew a notably affluent audience. On the day of the show, households classified as “Ultra Wealthy Families” accounted for 45.5% of the venue’s captured market, compared to 23.5% across the prior twelve months. Similarly, households earning more than $175K represented 46.5% of the venue’s captured market on concert day, well above the 34.9% average observed over the previous year. These shifts demonstrate the robust demand for exclusive Super Bowl week experiences among higher-income music fans.
But affluence alone only tells part of the story. Using location intelligence to examine visitor journeys offers clearer insight into the concert’s audience – whether it skewed local or was bolstered by visiting Super Bowl guests.
Trade area analysis reveals that 36.6% of visitors to the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium on the day of the show traveled between 10 and 30 miles – a higher share than usual for the venue, indicating stronger representation from the extended Bay Area.
At the same time, the event also drew a meaningful influx of long-distance travelers. Visitors coming from more than 250 miles away accounted for 12.9% of concertgoers on February 7th, up from 8.0% over the previous twelve months. This increase suggests that many Super Bowl tourists incorporated the high-profile live show into their itineraries, reinforcing the role of major concerts as drivers of valuable traffic during destination sporting events.
For civic leaders, major activations like these highlight how strategic programming can amplify the regional impact of tentpole sporting events – generating surges in visitation and meaningful spillover to retail corridors, entertainment districts, and shopping centers.
For more data-driven civic insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Wingstop closed out Q4 2025 with soft same-store traffic but a clearly defined strategic trajectory. While same-store visits remained under pressure, performance in Dallas – the brand’s most mature market – suggests that improvements in operational efficiency could play a central role in unlocking Wingstop’s next phase of growth.
Wingstop continued to expand its physical footprint in Q4 2025, driving total chain-wide traffic up 1.0% year over year (YoY) for the quarter and 4.5% for 2025 as a whole. At the same time, same-store traffic remained soft, extending a pattern that persisted throughout the second half of the year.
Some of that pressure reflects a challenging baseline comparison. Wingstop is lapping an unusually strong 2024, when domestic same-store sales surged nearly 20% YoY – setting a high bar for subsequent growth. The decline in same-store visits also aligns with the brand’s deliberate shift toward off-premise occasions: By Q3 2025, 72.8% of Wingstop’s sales were digital, underscoring the brand’s evolution into a tech-led, delivery-forward concept.
Still, looking more closely at Wingstop’s Dallas, TX market – home to the majority of its company-owned restaurants – offers a compelling signal for how the brand can reverse recent traffic trends. In 2025 earnings calls, management repeatedly pointed to Dallas as a top performer, attributing its resilience to the early integration of the chain’s AI-powered Smart Kitchen platform.
Piloted in Dallas before its nationwide rollout in late 2025, the AI-powered system is designed to optimize throughput and accuracy to deliver a more consistent pickup experience. And location analytics appear to support management’s view: In Q4 2025, 44.5% of Wingstop visits in the Dallas DMA lasted under ten minutes, compared to 40.8% nationwide.
Comparing YoY performance for shorter and longer visits to Wingstop – both in Dallas and nationwide – further highlights the growing importance of speed of service. In Q4 2025, visits lasting under ten minutes increased YoY on a per-location basis nationwide, with even stronger gains in Dallas, while longer visits continued to lag.
Crucially, although Dallas was not immune to the broader pressures weighing on longer visits, its YoY decline was notably less severe than the national trend. This divergence suggests that, beyond reducing wait times, the faster and more accurate service enabled by the Smart Kitchen platform may be contributing to a stronger overall visitor experience.
Location analytics suggest that operational improvements and faster service are beginning to translate into stronger traffic for Wingstop. And with the chain’s new loyalty platform set to launch nationwide later this year the brand may be poised for renewed same-store momentum.
For more data-driven dining insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The return to office was put to the test last month as a slew of new RTO mandates took effect – coinciding with the late-January arrival of Winter Storm Fern. With policies pulling in one direction and weather disruptions pulling in the other, how were offices impacted on the ground?
January 2026 delivered a reminder that return-to-office progress is anything but linear – but it is still gaining ground. Despite Winter Storm Fern disrupting travel and commutes across large parts of the country toward the end of the month, office attendance continued its gradual recovery. Visits to the Nationwide Office Index were 38.3% below January 2019 levels, a modest improvement from January 2025, when a Polar Vortex similarly inhibited commutes.
And while total monthly visits came in slightly below January 2024 levels, adjusting for the number of working days reveals a more encouraging picture. On a per-working-day basis, January 2026 was the busiest in-office January since COVID – no small feat in a month when ice and snow covered large swaths of the contiguous U.S. for several days. The fact that offices were generally fuller than in prior Januaries, even amid widespread disruptions, points to a robust underlying RTO trajectory.
Fern’s influence becomes clearer, however, when zooming in on individual metros. Cities that avoided the worst of the storm generally posted stronger year-over-year (YoY) gains, while heavily impacted markets saw flatter or negative results. Miami, for example, continued to record YoY increases, while New York City – hit hard by Fern – saw visits edge down 0.3% YoY.
Last year’s winter conditions also played a meaningful role in YoY comparisons. Both Dallas and Houston were affected by Fern this January, though Dallas bore the brunt of the storm, with snow, ice, travel disruptions, and flight cancellations contributing to a 6.7% YoY drop in office visits. Houston, by contrast, experienced more limited disruption in January 2026 and posted a YoY increase – in part because it was lapping the January 2025 Gulf Coast Blizzard, which saw rare snow accumulations effectively shut the city down. In other words, Houston’s biggest weather-related disruption occurred last winter, while Dallas faced a more acute shock this year.
Washington, D.C.’s 3.2% YoY uptick and Atlanta’s 9.1% gain similarly reflect comparisons to January 2025, when both markets were hampered by extreme winter weather. But these rebounds also point to underlying recovery momentum – especially for Atlanta, which, despite being impacted by Fern, ranked third among the analyzed cities for post-pandemic office recovery.
Meanwhile, West Coast markets that were largely spared severe winter conditions posted the strongest year-over-year gains. Los Angeles and San Francisco led the pack, with YoY increases of 15.6% and 10.9%, respectively.
In today’s hybrid workplace, weather disruptions have become an increasingly accepted reason to skip the commute and work from home. And as a result, January – one of the most weather-prone months of the year – has emerged as a softer period for office attendance, regardless of broader RTO momentum.
Still, when adjusting for the number of working days, office visits this January marked a meaningful improvement over last year – further evidence that return-to-office progress continues to move steadily forward.
For more data-driven office recovery analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
The fast casual space has become an increasingly competitive battleground for share-of-stomach as price-sensitive consumers trade down to lower-cost food channels. Against this backdrop, CAVA and sweetgreen offer a timely case study in resilience. Both brands continue to expand their footprints and diversify their audiences while leaning on loyalty programs and menu innovation to sustain growth during a volatile period for the dining sector. Using AI-powered location analytics, we uncover how macroeconomic pressures have shaped foot traffic trends to both chains and explore the strategies helping to keep them on a positive growth trajectory.
CAVA and sweetgreen continue to pursue aggressive expansion strategies, contributing to the overall visit growth of both brands. But while CAVA showed relative stability in both overall visits and same-store performance in H2 2025, sweetgreen experienced softer year-over-year (YoY) visit growth and moderate same-store visit declines in most months – raising the possibility of emerging “bowl fatigue.”
In Q4 2025, CAVA posted 16.6% YoY visit growth, with loyalty program enhancements and a holiday campaign likely helping to sustain visits.
Sweetgreen’s 4.4% visit growth in Q4 2025 was moderate by comparison, although December stood out for delivering positive YoY visits and same-store visits. This boost may have been driven by the value-focused $10 Harvest Bowl promotion alongside continued adoption of the brand’s refreshed loyalty program.
For both chains, revamped loyalty programs and continued expansion may set the stage for growth in the year ahead.
Even as refreshed loyalty programs and expansion act as growth levers, both chains have recently called out a shared headwind – softer engagement among Gen Z and Millennial diners amid sustained financial pressure on younger consumers.
However, AI-powered captured market analysis combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset suggests early signs of renewed momentum. In Q4 2025, both chains saw an increased share of visitors from the “Young Urban Singles” segment – a cohort that skews heavily Gen Z and Millennial – compared to Q4 2024. And sweetgreen saw growth in its “Educated Urbanites” segment – another cohort that skews heavily Gen Z and Millennial, and which makes up a large share of the chain’s captured market. These shifts could indicate that both brands reclaimed some younger traffic toward the end of the year.
At the same time, both brands saw broader audience diversification within their captured markets. Sweetgreen increased its share of “Wealthy Suburban Families”, while CAVA saw gains among “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” and “Near-Urban Diverse Families”. This suggests that growth among older and more financially stable segments is likely helping to offset some of the pullback from younger diners.
And while some of CAVA and sweetgreen’s suburban and near-urban audience gains likely reflect both chains’ continued unit expansion beyond urban cores, the rise in young urban traffic indicates that strategic initiatives are resonating with traditional audiences. Menu innovation and tools that give diners greater control over nutritional inputs – particularly offerings aligned with protein-forward trends – may be helping to re-engage young urban diners.
As consumer budgets remain under pressure, CAVA and sweetgreen illustrate that sustaining momentum in today’s dining landscape requires a deliberate, multi-pronged strategy. Thoughtful real estate decisions can expand a brand’s consumer base while innovation and loyalty programs keep existing audiences engaged.
The broader industry takeaway is clear: brands that deepen relevance across multiple consumer segments may be best positioned to compete for share-of-stomach in the months ahead.
Which restaurant brands will succeed in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Malls started the year on a strong note, with year-over-year traffic increases across all three mall formats. Open-air shopping centers received the largest gains, with visits up 6.2% compared to January 2025. Indoor malls, which outperformed the other formats for much of 2025, also posted solid growth of 4.5% YoY – a notable result given their already strong performance last January. Even outlet malls, which struggled to maintain growth momentum for most of 2025, saw a 3.6% increase in visits – perhaps suggesting that consumers are entering 2026 more willing to return to discretionary shopping destinations after a cautious 2025.
A closer look at the data suggests that a meaningful share of last month’s mall traffic may have been driven by post-holiday retail returns. There is some evidence that return activity was higher this January than in January 2025, and the timing of visits supports this interpretation.
Mall traffic was heavily front-loaded to the first two weeks of the year – consistent with the post-holiday returns window – with visit growth already beginning to moderate during the third week of January. (The more pronounced decline in traffic observed in the final week of the month was likely driven by the impact of Winter Storm Fern, which weighed on visits across all mall formats).
Visit duration patterns further support the idea that increased returns activity drove much of January’s mall traffic surge – the largest gains were concentrated in short visits, with trips lasting 10 minutes or less increasing by double digits across all mall formats.
At the same time, the data also shows year-over-year growth in longer visits, indicating that higher-quality, more engaged mall trips increased in January 2026 as well. So while post-holiday returns clearly played a role in driving January foot traffic, the simultaneous growth in longer trips suggests that shoppers were also spending time browsing or making additional purchases.
As 2026 unfolds, this blend of efficiency and engagement will be a key dynamic to watch: consumers appear increasingly willing to re-enter physical retail spaces, but they remain intentional about how they shop. Mall formats that can seamlessly support quick, frictionless visits while also encouraging extended dwell time may be best positioned to capture both sides of evolving consumer behavior in the year ahead.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
