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With sales of mountain passes up and eager skiers and snowboarders ready to hit the slopes, let’s take a look at how Backcountry has been performing of late. This brand may be familiar to many, as it has been an online retailer for the past 27 years. Lately, though, the retailer has made a foray into brick-and-mortar stores in areas where they have a strong concentration of online customers, with the store count currently up to 9 nationwide.
The Palo Alto store opened in Spring 2023. Visitation trendlines show that this store at the Stanford Shopping Center has jumped to be neck-and-neck with the Seattle store in Dec 2023.
The majority of Backcountry shoppers come from very high-income households, such as Ultra Wealthy Families, Educated Urbanites, and Sunset Boomers (using PersonaLive data for select store trade areas).
Backcountry opened its first physical store downstairs from its corporate headquarters in Park City, UT in 2021. The impetus for opening a brick-and-mortar store was to “deepen connections with its customers.” In addition to the Palo Alto store, Backcountry also opened its first east coast outpost on 14th St in Washington DC during spring 2023, one of the hot retail corridors we wrote about. The newest entrant is a 23,000 square-foot flagship location open at the Grove in Los Angeles in July, which will provide gear for all sorts of popular outdoor activities, such as hiking, camping, water sports, running and climbing.
The holidays conjure up warm, cozy images of families sitting around artfully-set tables and enjoying delicious home-cooked meals. But for many people, Christmas Day is also a time to eat out. And while many restaurants are closed on December 25th, several national and regional chains keep their doors open for patrons eager to enjoy a nice, stress-free meal with loved ones – without the clean-up.
So with the holiday season in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to explore nationwide December 25th dining trends – focusing our analysis on more than 100 chains, mostly full-service, with significant national or regional presence. Which brands are most popular on Christmas Day? And what differences can be observed in different regions of the country?
Nationwide, visits to dining chains nationwide were down 59.7% on December 25th, 2023, compared to a Q4 2023 daily average. But digging down deeper into the different areas of the country reveals significant regional differences.
The Pacific states – including California, Washington, Oregon, Alaska, and Hawaii – saw a drop of just 33.8% in dining visits on Christmas Day compared to the region’s Q4 2023 daily average. Next in line were the various regions of the South, where December 25th foot traffic dropped between 51.2% and 56.9%, followed by the Mountain states. And on the other end of the spectrum lay New England, where visits were down 83.3% compared to a Q4 baseline. Other areas of the Northeast and Midwest also experienced foot traffic dips in excess of 70.0% – indicating that residents of these areas are less likely to dine out on the holiday.
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But which chains are most popular on December 25th? Analyzing the distribution of holiday visits among 25 leading Christmas Day restaurant destinations shows that three all-day breakfast chains – Waffle House, IHOP, and Denny’s – dominated the Christmas Day dining market this year.
Together, these 24/7 eateries, which tend to experience significant holiday visit bumps, accounted for an impressive 70.4% of holiday dining foot traffic. After a leisurely morning of presents and hot cocoa, it seems, nothing quite hits the spot like waffles, pancakes, and other breakfast favorites. And with affordable prices, seasonal menus, and special holiday vibes (complete with pajama-clad customers), these restaurants offer plenty of holiday cheer.
But breakfast chains aren’t the only dining venues that draw Christmas Day crowds. Red Lobster, the popular seafood chain, cornered 4.9% of this year’s December 25th dining foot traffic. And Applebee’s, Black Bear Diner, Golden Corral, and TGI Fridays each received between 2.0% and 3.0% of Christmas Day visits.
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Drilling down deeper into the data for holiday visit trends shows that each state has its own favorite Christmas Day destination. In no fewer than 21 states nationwide – including New York, Texas, Michigan, and Florida – IHOP topped the chart. Denny’s and Waffle House, for their parts, each led the charge in 11 states, with Waffle House dominating the Christmas Day scene in much of the South.
But in some places, other chains topped the Christmas Day rankings. In Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota, people flocked to Perkins Restaurant & Bakery – the casual-dining chain known for its iconic pies and pancakes. In Wyoming and South Dakota, Red Lobster drew the biggest crowds. And in Oregon, Shari’s – a chain with some 80 locations in the western region of the country – attracted the most holiday visits.
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Foot traffic data also reveals, unsurprisingly, that visitors to the three Christmas Day leaders – Waffle House, IHOP, and Denny’s – spent more time in the restaurants on Christmas Day than they usually do. Some 17.3% of Christmas Day Waffle House visits lasted more than one hour – compared to 14.7% on an average day in 2023. IHOP and Denny’s also saw significant holiday increases in dwell time.
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Though many restaurants are closed on December 25th, chains that do stay open – especially all-day breakfast eateries – draw significant crowds. How will holiday winners like Waffle House, IHOP, and Denny’s continue to fare as people settle back into their post-holiday routines? And how will Christmas Day dining trends evolve nationwide in the years to come?
Follow placer.ai/blog to find out.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Has the remote work war run its course? For a while last year, it seemed like not a day went by without another headline proclaiming the demise of WFH. And as return-to-office mandates continued to pile up (et tu, Zoom?), the debate over offsite work productivity grew ever more rancorous.
But amidst all the noise, a new hybrid reality appears to have taken hold, offering both companies and employees the benefits of a mixed model. Yes, productivity can thrive outside the office – but there is something about the intangible spark that ignites when people interact with one another in person that has proven crucial to business success. So while recent survey data shows a precipitous drop in fully remote work over the past three years, most companies aren’t requiring people to go back to the office full time.
With these trends in mind, we dove into the data to explore the state of office foot traffic as the year drew to a close. How did December 2023 office visits compare to pre-COVID? And what impact did the holiday season have on the demographic profile of the typical office-goer?
Last month, buildings in our Nationwide Office Index received 36.5% fewer visits than they did in December 2019 – reflecting a continuation of the same general holding pattern that has seen foot traffic hovering around 40.0% of pre-COVID levels, with some minor fluctuations.
But delving further into the data for key commercial hubs nationwide highlights the persistence of important regional differences – with New York City emerging as last month’s clear office recovery winner. In December 2023, the Big Apple experienced a year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) visit gap of just 19.2% – the smallest seen by the city in some time. At the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, with a Yo4Y visit gap of 53.1%.
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But December is a bit of an outlier, work-wise. It’s the heart of the holiday season – kicked off by Thanksgiving at the end of November, and bookended by New Year’s Eve on the other side. And foot traffic data shows a small but distinct shift in the demographic profiles of office buildings’ captured markets – i.e. the areas their visitors come from – during the last month of the year.
Nationwide, and in major cities like New York and San Francisco, office-goers tend to come from relatively affluent areas with greater-than-average shares of one-person households. But over the final three months of 2023, both of these metrics in office buildings’ captured markets gradually declined. November office visitors were more likely to come from larger and lower-HHI households than October visitors – and December visitors were more likely to come from such households than November ones. This may reflect the greater flexibility of higher-HHI employees to work from home more often during the holiday season. It may also reflect a greater tendency on the part of singles to take extended trips to visit family during the holidays, and plug in from afar.
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Hybrid work may be here to stay, but employees and companies will likely continue to negotiate the exact terms of the new model in the months and years ahead. Are the remote work wars really over? And what will office recovery look like in the new year?
Follow placer.ai/blog to find out.
With their experiential vibes and treasured blends of well-known brands and local gems, high-street retail corridors are experiencing something of a renaissance. Iconic shopping districts like Fifth Avenue and SoHo in New York City, Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills, and Newbury Street in Boston are seeing steady influxes of luxury and high-end apparel brands. And economic headwinds notwithstanding, consumers continue to flock to these important retail destinations to shop, grab a bite to eat, and take in all the sights and sounds they have to offer.
So with the new year upon us, we dove into the data to see how major urban shopping districts nationwide fared this holiday season. How did visits to these corridors in the final months of 2023 compare to last year? And who are the consumers driving the high-street revival?
Over the past six months, visits to major urban shopping districts have been consistently higher than they were last year. And as the holiday season kicked into gear, the year-over-year (YoY) growth trajectory trended upwards – indicating a robust turnout during this holiday period.
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To examine some of the factors behind this growth, we analyzed the demographic profiles of the captured markets of POIs (points of interest) corresponding to major high-street corridors throughout the country.
The analysis shows that throughout the U.S., high-street shopping districts hold special appeal for affluent audiences – and for consumers belonging to Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive’s “Educated Urbanite” psychographic segment. This segment encompasses well-educated young singles that live in dense urban areas and make relatively high salaries. Given the demographic profile of their visitors, it’s no wonder that high-street corridors are finding success while expanding their luxury and high-end apparel portfolios.
In Q4 2023, the captured markets of Fifth Avenue, SoHo, and Times Square all featured higher median household incomes (HHIs), and greater shares of the “Educated Urbanite” segment than New York’s statewide baselines. Each of these quintessential New York City landmarks, however, drew a somewhat different visitor base.
Fifth Avenue, with its array of museums, luxury high-rises, and expensive department stores, drew the most affluent crowd, with a captured market median HHI of $105.6K – some 35.7% above the statewide median. SoHo, for its part, known for designer apparel stores, trendy cafes, and whimsical tourist attractions (Museum of Ice Cream, anyone?), attracted the largest share of “Educated Urbanites.” And Times Square, a top Big Apple attraction with broad popular appeal, boasted a visitor profile closest to statewide baselines.
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A look at the visitor profiles of major California shopping districts reveals a similar trend. The captured markets of Beverly Hills’ Rodeo Drive, Santa Monica’s 3rd Street Promenade, Hayes Valley in San Francisco, and Abbot Kinney in Los Angeles all had higher median HHIs in Q4 2023 than the statewide median of $85.7K. Of these, the captured market with the highest median HHI was that of Hayes Valley in San Francisco – an unsurprising finding given the relative affluence of the Bay Area. Not far behind was Rodeo Drive, with a median HHI of $113.9K.
Hayes Valley also led the charge for “Educated Urbanites,” with no less than 61.4% of the population of its captured market – nearly two-thirds – belonging to this segment. But all four of the analyzed high-street corridors were significantly over-indexed for this demographic compared to the California baseline of 13.1%.
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Looking at urban shopping districts in other major cities nationwide – including Newbury Street in Boston, Fulton Market in Chicago, and Walnut Street in Philadelphia – shows that the unique draw of these corridors for young, affluent singles isn’t confined to New York and Chicago. In all three corridors, the median HHIs and shares of “Educated Urbanites” in the captured markets
also exceeded statewide baselines – oftentimes by a wide margin.
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Evolving work routines and post-COVID population shifts continue to present municipalities and other civic stakeholders with significant challenges. But the revival of high-street retail corridors shows that cities are up to the task. How will major urban shopping districts fare in the new year? And how will their audiences continue to evolve?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail foot traffic analyses to find out.
How did the brick-and-mortar divisions of Walmart, Target, and other leading retailers perform this holiday season? Which days drove the most visits, and how did foot traffic performance this year compare to 2022? We dove into the data to find out.
Looking at daily visits to Target, Walmart, mid-tier department stores (including Macy’s, JCPenney, Kohl’s Belk, and Dillard’s), luxury department stores (including Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, Bloomingdale’s, and Nordstrom) and Best Buy reveals several common trends.
In all cases, retail visits began to creep up over the days leading up to Thanksgiving (Monday through Wednesday) as consumers took advantage of early Black Friday discounts. And the visit increase on Black Friday 2023 relative to the Q4 daily average was larger than in 2022 – perhaps thanks to budget-conscious consumers holding out for the steep discounts offered the day after Thanksgiving. The Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and Super Saturday spikes were also particularly pronounced in 2023, likely thanks to the combination of both retail events falling on the same day this year.
All retailers and retail segments analyzed also saw smaller surges on Boxing Day (December 26th) 2023 when compared to 2022, likely due to calendar differences. Christmas fell on a Sunday in 2022, so December 26th was declared a federal holiday in lieu of December 25th, and many private-sector employers likely gave time off as well – giving consumers the opportunity to hit the stores and enjoy after-Christmas sales. But Boxing Day still drove visit peaks across the board in 2023 (albeit not smaller peaks than in 2022) – indicating that Boxing Day is now a U.S. phenomenon as well.
December 27th, 28th, and 29th saw a greater increase relative to the daily Q4 average in 2023 compared to 2022, culminating in a larger New Years Eve Eve (December 30th) spike. The December 30th surge may be because this year’s December 30th fell on a Saturday, which is a major shopping day in its own right. But the increase in the days prior to New Years Eve Eve, when after-Christmas sales were in full force, could indicate that consumers are still particularly attune to sales events.
Still, despite the similarities across retail categories, foot traffic data also reveals some important differences between the segments.
Visits to Target began to increase in November 2023 relative to October as the retailer offered “Four Weeks of Early Black Friday Deals,” starting October 29th. And like the other categories analyzed, Target saw its first small visit peak of the season on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving (also known as Turkey Wednesday thanks to the massive Grocery visit spikes on the day). Visits on the day before Thanksgiving were up by 21.5% and 22.1%, in 2022 and 2023, respectively, despite foot traffic on an average Wednesday tends to be lower than the Q4 daily average – indicating that “Turkey Wednesday” also holds retail significance for grocery-adjacent categories.
Visits then spiked on Black Friday and returned to seasonally normal levels on Saturday. Throughout December, foot traffic continued to swell, with every week exceeding the previous week’s visit performance. The intensity of the visit growth picked up the week before Christmas, with Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday seeing a significant jump. Finally, Target visits on Boxing Day and the week following Christmas also exceeded the Q4 daily average as consumers took advantage of end-of-season sales and looked for festive attire for their New Year’s Eve celebrations.
The holiday season visit pattern at Walmart differs from those at Target in several instances. The superstore’s Turkey Visit spike was significantly more pronounced than Target’s, likely thanks to Walmart’s more extensive grocery offerings. Walmart also saw smaller spikes on Black Friday – perhaps due to the retailer’s famous “everyday low prices,” which may reduce the appeal of specific sales events. The Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday surge were also lower than for Target, but the Super Saturday increase relative to Black Friday spike was more pronounced, with some consumers probably visiting Walmart for last-minute groceries ahead of their Christmas dinners.
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Visits to luxury department stores (Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, and Bloomingdale’s) followed the general retail foot traffic trends, with larger peaks on Black Friday and on Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday in 2023 compared to 2022. Boxing Day 2023 drove a smaller visit spike relative to last year, but foot traffic was still 98.2% higher than the Q4 2023 daily average – indicating that the day is still emerging as an important retail milestone, especially for pricier segments.
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Mid-tier department stores (Macy’s, Kohl’s, JCPenney, Belk, and Dillard’s) saw more significant spikes on Black Friday and Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday, and smaller spikes on Boxing Day. Luxury’s department stores’ biggest post-Christmas visit peak was on Boxing Day, but mid-tier department stores experienced their largest end-of-year increase on New Year’s Eve Eve (December 30th).
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Best Buy saw the strongest Q4 visit spike on Black Friday out of all the retailers and retail segments analyzed, with foot traffic up a whopping 510.9% compared to its Q4 2023 daily average. The electronics leader also had the largest Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday bump – with visits up 188.1% – and Boxing Day boost, with traffic up 112.9% compared to the Q4 daily average. The visit surges over the holiday season’s retail milestones indicate that demand for electronics remains strong – even as some consumers may be putting off large purchases due to economic headwinds.
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The holiday season drove significant retail foot traffic across categories, with every segment displaying its own unique Q4 visitation pattern. How will these sectors perform in the year ahead?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
2023 was a year that forced restaurant operators to stay agile. Inflation was top-of-mind for most consumers throughout the year, resulting in a trade-down to value-oriented restaurants (or trading out to value grocery chains, dollar stores, and convenience stores). That said, value wasn’t the only factor driving visits, as new menu innovations (Taco Bell was a standout) or marketing partnerships (McDonald’s Famous Orders and “adult” happy meals helping the chain to outperform from a visitation perspective). While we’ve seen visitation trends for the morning daypart improve due to a steady recovery in return to office trends, we continue to see visits during late morning and early afternoon for coffee and QSR chains due to changes in consumer routines (not to mention a resurgence in late night dining). This has also prompted several chains to refine their approach to drive-thrus and pick-up windows (Shake Shack, Chipotle, Taco Bell, among several others). On top of these trends, we’ve seen massive changes in restaurant trade areas, driving many chains to rethink their expansion plans (including an emphasis on South and Southeast, which have seen population growth due to migration).
McDonald’s new exploratory restaurant concept CosMc’s sits at the intersection of several of these trends. The smaller-format (approximately 2,800 square feet, compared to 4,000-4,500 square feet for the average McDonald’s), drive-thru only concept opened its doors last month in Bolingbrook, IL, and is part of a “limited test run”. Its menu heavily focuses on beverages, including four “Signature Galactic Boosts” (featuring Sour Cherry Energy Boost and Island Pick-Me-Up Punch drinks), iced teas and lemonades (such as a Tropical Spiceade and Blackberry Mist Green Tea), slushes and frappes (including a Chai Frappe Burst and Popping Pear Slush), and coffee-based products (highlighted by the S’Mores Cold Brew and Turmeric Spiced Latte). While beverages are the focal point, there are also a variety of breakfast and snack food options, including a Spicy Queso and Creamy Avocado Tomatillo breakfast sandwiches, McPops (filled doughnuts), Savory Hash Brown Bites, and Pretzel Bites. In addition to the experimental fare, the menu also features a host of traditional breakfast sandwiches and beverage offerings.
Given the early buzz, we decided to check out the concept for ourselves this week. It was immediately apparent how much interest CosMc’s was drawing, as the drive-thru lane spanned roughly 80 vehicles upon arrival (which required use of a separate parking lot at the Maple Park Place shopping center, which also features Burlington, Ross Dress for Less, Dollar Tree, Aldi, and Best Buy stores).
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While its unique menu has rightfully generated a significant amount of attention, it’s also clear that McDonald’s is also using CosMc’s as a test for other potential drive-thru only locations in the future. Customers order from dynamic menu boards and cashless payment devices are used to expedite the payment process. Visitors wait at the menu board until their order is ready, and then pickup windows are assigned when the order is ready.
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Admittedly, it’s tough to make definitive conclusions about CosMc’s with the location being open for only a few weeks. Placer’s data suggests that CosMc’s saw more than double the number of visits that a typical McDonald’s saw chainwide during December 2023 (despite being open only since Dec. 7) and more than triple the number of visits per square foot (given CosMc’s smaller, roughly 2,500 square feet footprint). However, it’s also worth noting that CosMc’s visitation numbers would likely have been much higher if the location had additional capacity to satisfy the overwhelming demand.
Still, Placer offers some other ways to evaluate CosMc’s early trends. Based on 2019 Census Block Group data, CosMc’s trade area size (using a 70% of visit threshold) was just over 155 square miles during December 2023 (below). This is roughly 2.5 times the size of the trade area for the average McDonald’s location during December 2023 (62 miles) and significantly larger than the average trade area for most coffee brands (25-35 miles for more urban focused brands to 50-60 miles for more suburban/secondary market brands). In fact, the closest recent comparison we could find for CosMc’s was Raising Cane’s Post Malone and Dallas Cowboys restaurant collaboration, which had an impressive 264-mile trade area during its initial month of opening (though also helped by cross-traffic from Dallas Cowboys home game visitors from across the state of Texas). In some ways, there were also similarities between CosMc's and the Hello Kitty Cafe Trucks, which the Placer.ai Blog team wrote about last September.
Given that McDonald’s also appears to be targeting a younger demographic with CosMc’s, we thought we’d also look at the age breakdown for the potential market trade area (the population living within the trade area for the CosMc’s store). McDonald’s collective potential market trade area largely mirrors U.S. trends given its reach (the company has previously stated that 85% of the population in its top five markets–the U.S., France, the U.K., Germany and Canada–are within three miles of a McDonald’s location), it’s interesting that the potential market trade area for CosMc’s does skew to a younger audience, particularly the 22–29-year-old cohort.
By the end of 2024, McDonald’s plans to open an additional 10 CosMc’s test units, including locations in the Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio markets (notably some of the fastest growing markets in the U.S.). Does CosMc’s have the potential to be something more than a 10-unit test over a longer horizon? McDonald's has attempted to differentiate its coffee business in the past with its McCafe menu and standalone McCafe locations in international markets, but competition with Starbucks and others made it difficult for the company to distinguish McCafe as a standalone retail brand in the U.S. CosMc's is interesting from this perspective, as it may allow the company to build a brand more naturally and stand out with a younger audience (which appears to be working). It’s unlikely that future CosMc’s will look or operate like the pilot location in Bolingbrook. Nevertheless, the excitement around new products, an expansive trade area, and potential to connect with younger audience make it a worthwhile test (especially with 2024 shaping up to be a strong year for unit growth within the coffee category).
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
