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After reaching new heights in October 2024, how did the office recovery fare in November? We dove into the data to find out.
In November 2024, visits to office buildings nationwide were 62.4% of what they were in November 2019, down from 66.7% in November 2023. This marks the most substantial drop in office foot traffic since January 2024 – and a sharp decline from October 2024.
But though significant, November’s downturn is likely a reflection of this year’s record-breaking Thanksgiving travel rather than of any real office recovery slowdown. Millions of Americans took to the skies and roads to spend the holiday with loved ones. And with remote work making it easier than ever before for professionals to plug in from virtually anywhere, many likely extended their trips without taking extra days off – leading to fewer office visits in the days leading up to the holiday.
Taking a look at regional trends, Miami continued to outshine other cities in November 2024, with visits at 84.0% of pre-pandemic levels – perhaps due in part to strict return-to-office (RTO) policies implemented by major players within the city’s growing tech and finance sector. New York came in second with recovery at 81.9%, while San Francisco continued to lag behind other major cities. But with major projects like the September 2024 grand opening of the revamped Transamerica Pyramid set to revitalize the city’s Financial District, more accelerated recovery may be ahead for this West Coast hub.
Indeed, San Francisco was among November 2024’s regional leaders for year over year (YoY) office visit growth. Nationwide, office building foot traffic was down 6.5% YoY. But in San Francisco, visits increased 1.6% – likely bolstered by recent RTO mandates from major local employers like Salesforce. The city’s temperate climate may also have played a role in encouraging residents to stay local for the holidays. Miami, too – a popular holiday destination in its own right – saw visits increase 1.7% YoY.
Denver, meanwhile, experienced its fourth snowiest November on record, which may have contributed to a larger portion of its workforce embracing remote work during the month – and an 11.3% YoY visit decline. And in New York, extended “workcations” by remote-capable finance employees, as well as potential disruptions in public transit and increased congestion during the holiday season, may have fueled a larger-than-average drop. Given the Big Apple’s strong overall recovery trajectory, we will likely see a rebound to more robust YoY growth by January, when the holiday season winds down.
While Thanksgiving travel created a temporary headwind for office recovery, cities like Miami and San Francisco demonstrate that the story is far from uniform. And looking ahead to the coming months, the office recovery still appears poised to continue apace.
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Following weaker foot traffic performances in September and October, mall visits swung positive in November: Indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls received year-over-year (YoY) visit boosts of 6.4%, 4.8%, and 3.8%, respectively. The strong YoY growth across all mall types underscores the continued attraction of brick-and-mortar retail – particularly during the holiday season.
While much of the November boost is likely due to the malls’ strong Black Friday performance, foot traffic data indicates that early deals also drove visits before the big day: Comparing daily visits during the week before Black Friday (from Friday November 22nd to Wednesday November 27th) to visits during the equivalent days in 2023 (November 17th to 22nd 2023) reveals that malls received more pre-Black Friday mall visits this year than in 2023.
This willingness to shop ahead of Black Friday instead of waiting for the best deals on the day itself may highlight the effectiveness of retailers’ early promotions– or it could signal the readiness of some consumers to spend more freely this holiday season.
Still, despite the positive pre-Black Friday showing, the majority of the November visit boost can likely be attributed to malls’ impressive Black Friday Performance. All three formats saw YoY visit growth over Black Friday weekend, with open-air shopping centers seeing the largest visit increases – foot traffic for this sub-category was up 6.0% compared to Black Friday weekend 2023. In fact, this year’s Black Friday numbers were so strong that visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers even exceeded pre-pandemic Black Friday weekend.
These numbers reveal that, despite the rise in early Black Friday deals and online shopping, many consumers still want to experience the excitement of Black Friday bargain hunting in person. And this powerful kickoff to the 2024 holiday season indicates that the unique experiential offering of malls – combining shopping, dining, and entertainment all under one roof – continue to play a central role in the wider retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai.
Hot on the heels of last year’s Barbenheimer phenomenon, 2024 brought us “Glicked”— the powerhouse pairing of Gladiator II and Wicked that lit up movie theaters across the country. How did these box office juggernauts – followed just a few days later by Disney’s much-anticipated release of Moana 2 – impact movie theater foot traffic during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend?
We dove into the data to find out.
On its premiere day (Friday, November 22nd, 2024) “Glicked” drew a 69.2% increase in movie theater visits compared to the daily average between June 1, 2023 and December 1, 2024. By Saturday, November 23rd, foot traffic surged by a dramatic 147.3%, solidifying the weekend as one of the most memorable of the year. And on Wednesday, November 27th, the release of Moana 2 drove an impressive 142.6% foot traffic increase.
But the real box office magic came on Black Friday (November 29th), when the combined power of Glicked, Moana 2, and the holiday shopping frenzy fueled an epic 263.2% surge in theater visits – making November 29th the third busiest for theaters since June 1st 2023. Foot traffic to movie theaters on this year’s Black Friday even outpaced the unforgettable levels seen on Barbenheimer Saturday (July 22nd, 2023), when visits soared to 241.0% above the daily average.
Black Friday is always a busy time for movie theaters. In 2019, movie theater visits on Black Friday (November 29th, 2019) were up 80.2% compared to an average 2019 Friday – while in 2022 and 2023 (November 25th, 2022 and November 24th, 2023), they were up 40.8% and 39.4% compared to an average Friday for each of those years.
And in 2024, Black Friday cinematic foot traffic surged past previous years’ benchmarks – surpassing even pre-pandemic levels. On November 29th, 2024, visits to movie theaters were 13.1% higher than on Black Friday in 2019 – and the effect lasted through the weekend, pushing visits up 9.5% and 27.8% on the Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving compared to the equivalent period of 2019.
But the Black Friday foot traffic surge wasn’t distributed equally throughout the day. Unsurprisingly given the holiday weekend, morning and early afternoon screenings saw the most impressive visit increases – with foot traffic up an incredible 524.0% between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM compared to an average year-to-date (YTD) Friday. Afternoons (2:00 PM–5:00 PM) weren’t far behind, with visits climbing 389.9%. But impressively, even though Friday evenings are typically busy times for movie theaters year round, visits on the evening of Black Friday surged by more than 200% between 5:00 PM and 11:00 PM.
Black Friday’s box office boost also wasn’t evenly spread across the map. Leading the charge was the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington area, where theater visits soared by an astonishing 373.5% compared to its 2024 year-to-date average. Close on its heels were Washington, D.C. (322.8%) and New York (321.9%), proving that East Coast audiences were all in for some big-screen magic.
Interestingly, Black Friday was less resonant on the West Coast, particularly in California, where the cultural pull of the big shopping day seems to be less strong. Los Angeles, for example, saw a more modest boost in visits, reflecting the region’s typically lighter Black Friday enthusiasm.
Black Friday, it turns out, isn’t just about shopping – it also has the power to supercharge movie theater foot traffic. And while Gladiator II, Wicked, and Moana 2 all drew crowds on their opening days, the strategic timing of their pre-holiday releases drove a Black Friday visit surge for the ages. Whether driven by the thrill of a new hit or the magic of the holiday season, people are returning to theaters – and in record numbers.
For more data-driven consumer behavior insights, visit placer.ai.
Holiday shoppers in November 2024 turned out in greater numbers than last year, particularly at malls. Following a strong spring and summer year-over-year performance (despite April having one fewer weekend and Easter falling in March, as well as July having one less weekend than 2023), and a weaker early fall, it seems many consumers held off on their mall visits until November.
Indoor malls saw the highest total visits, followed by open-air lifestyle centers and outlet malls.
Deal-hunting was a major theme this year, drawing shoppers in large numbers to outlet malls. For most of November, Arundel Mills in Hanover, MD, led in total visits. However, when it came to post-Thanksgiving steps and walking off turkey-induced calories, Ontario Mills in Southern California claimed the top spot. Sawgrass Mills in Florida secured third place, while the Assyrian fortress-themed Citadel Outlets in Los Angeles landed fourth—complete with a massive Black Friday traffic jam on the 5 Freeway. Gurnee Mills in Illinois rounded out the top five for national outlet mall traffic.
We watched Moana 2 on Black Friday at the Outlets of Orange, the sixth most-visited outlet mall in America. Judging by the unbelievably crowded parking lot, it might be worth checking the Placer app for historical traffic comparisons. The silver lining to the 25-minute parking hunt? With half an hour of previews now the norm, no one missed a moment of the movie! The mall was bustling, with lines stretching around the corners of some stores. Crowds filled the main thoroughfare, and eager shoppers formed long queues at popular spots like Victoria’s Secret and Pink.
Shoppers at juniors' retailers like American Eagle needed a bit of patience, as did those heading to Skechers.
Great Lakes Crossing Outlets in Michigan secured seventh place, while Dolphin Mall in Miami, FL rounded out the top eight.
From November 1 to December 1, the top five most-visited indoor malls were Mall of America in Minnesota, Roosevelt Field in New York, Westfield Valley Fair in California, Del Amo Fashion Center in California, and Woodfield Mall in Illinois. However, Black Friday brought a shift in rankings. Woodfield Mall claimed the top spot for Black Friday visits, with the other malls each moving down one position compared to their overall November visitation rankings.
From November 1 to December 1, Ala Moana Center in Hawaii consistently held its #1 spot among open-air shopping centers, including on Black Friday. If you're enjoying the aloha spirit this holiday season, don’t miss unique Hawaiian stores like Honolulu Cookie Co., Island Slipper, and Malie Organics. The rankings saw some shifts on Black Friday, with Irvine Spectrum climbing from third place throughout November to the #2 spot. Easton Town Center secured third place, while St. Johns Town Center and Victoria Gardens rounded out the fourth and fifth spots, respectively, on the busiest shopping day of the year.
Black Friday 2024 provided valuable insights into consumer behavior as we look ahead to 2025. Placer’s blog highlighted a +2.7% increase in Black Friday weekend visits compared to last year, with shoppers focusing on value while also seeking unique and differentiated products, evidenced by strong year-over-year trends at off-price retailers like HomeGoods, Marshalls, and T.J. Maxx. Pandemic-era categories like home furnishings and sporting goods may also be seeing signs of a resurgence.
The standout takeaway, however, was the evolving role of malls. Mixed-use developments and placemaking, a key trend for malls heading into 2024, proved pivotal this Black Friday weekend. Open-air and indoor malls saw larger year-over-year visit increases (6.7% and 5.0%, respectively) than retailers across all property types (up 2.7%). This was a trend echoed by operators like Simon, further underscoring the mall’s continued relevance in modern retail.
Retailers remain integral to malls, but seasonal attractions, entertainment options, and a more diverse tenant mix have transformed malls into community hubs and prime destinations for both residents and tourists. These attractions have a symbiotic effect, driving greater foot traffic to mall tenants compared to standalone stores of the same brands.
Need evidence that this strategy works? Consumers are staying longer. Our data shows that open-air malls experienced a 7.2% increase in dwell time over Black Friday weekend, while indoor malls saw a 5.1% rise. As we've highlighted before, the longer consumers spend at a mall, the more likely they are to make a purchase.
A strong box office undeniably played a role in Black Friday visit trends and dwell time. Our data shows a nearly 250% increase in visits to movie theaters this Black Friday compared to last year (below). However, the data also reveals that many malls with unique holiday attractions and effective marketing strategies experienced increased visits, indicating that mall traffic was driven by more than just blockbuster movies.
Taken together, our data reinforces that malls have become more vital than ever to modern retail, evolving from traditional shopping hubs into multifaceted destinations that blend commerce, entertainment, and community experiences. Changes in tenant mix have introduced a diverse array of retailers, including digitally native brands, experiential stores, and unique local offerings, catering to broader consumer tastes. Increased visitor attractions, such as dine-in theaters, fitness studios, and immersive art installations, create compelling reasons that drive repeat visits for more than just shopping. Mall-focused events, from seasonal pop-ups to live performances, further enhance the draw by fostering engagement and creating a sense of occasion. This strategic evolution has positioned malls as essential anchors in the retail ecosystem, blending convenience and experience to meet the demands of today’s shoppers.
The holiday shopping season is in full swing, and with Black Friday weekend behind us, it's time to assess how this season is shaping up for retailers. As we noted before Thanksgiving, the shortened window between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year places added pressure on retailers to drive store traffic during key holiday events and weekends.
In 2023, Black Friday accounted for approximately 7% of holiday season retail visits, making it crucial for retailers this year to attract consumers early to mitigate potential slowdowns later in the season. Without burying the lede, Black Friday weekend (Friday through Sunday) delivered on this goal, with six of the seven analyzed retail sectors experiencing visitation growth. While the fervor around Black Friday may not match the excitement of the 1990s and 2000s, this year reaffirmed its enduring importance as a cornerstone of holiday shopping.
From a category perspective, luxury department stores had a strong performance this year, with traffic up 4% compared to Black Friday weekend last year. Nordstrom, in particular, stood out with a successful event. Throughout 2024, luxury department stores have worked hard to align more closely with consumer expectations in terms of assortment, in-store experience, and value, which clearly paid off during this key retail event. According to PersonaLive segmentation, Ultra Wealthy Families made up a quarter of visitors to luxury department stores during Black Friday weekend, bolstering traffic as these consumers tend to be less price-sensitive.
Full-line department stores, mass merchants, beauty, and home furnishing retailers also saw a 2-3% increase in traffic year-over-year. Overall, while discretionary retail still faces challenges, the weekend showed more positive momentum than we've seen in recent years.
Placer’s traffic estimates revealed that while most categories experienced an increase in weekend traffic, there was a noticeable shift in the distribution of visits across the days compared to last year. This year, Friday accounted for a smaller share of event visits than in 2023, while Sunday saw a higher percentage of traffic. Despite this shift, Friday still represented nearly 50% of event visits on average across retail sectors. It’s possible that consumers delayed their shopping trips until later in the weekend, potentially after conducting online research on Friday and Saturday.
What about the iconic lines outside retailers—did they make a comeback? Our data indicates that a few specific items drove consumers to camp out and arrive early for store openings on Black Friday. Notably, Target's exclusive release of the Taylor Swift Eras Tour book and a vinyl edition of her latest album, The Tortured Poets Department, attracted early crowds. Hourly visit data shows a higher share of visits between 4 AM and 6 AM compared to 2023. While last year saw a greater share of visits during regular store hours, this year shoppers arrived earlier, likely drawn by these exclusive products.
What does Black Friday weekend reveal about the rest of the holiday season? The industry successfully overcame its first hurdle—boosting overall holiday visitation despite fewer shopping days—thanks to the growth seen last weekend. However, challenges remain with more lull weeks ahead and an earlier Super Saturday this year. As we noted previously, a shorter season also means tighter shipping windows, which could drive increased in-store visits in the final days before Christmas. On the positive side, discretionary retail saw strong visitation, with key items and promotions effectively capturing the holiday spirit and engaging consumers during this critical period.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Grabbing a coffee or snack at a convenience store is a time-honored road trip tradition – but increasingly, Convenience Stores (C-Stores) have also emerged as places people go out of their way to visit.
Convenience stores have thrived in recent years, making inroads into the discretionary dining space and growing both their audiences and their sales. Between April 2023 and March 2024, C-Stores experienced consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, generally outperforming Overall Retail. Unsurprisingly, C-Stores fell behind Overall Retail in November and December 2023, when holiday shoppers flocked to malls and superstores to buy gifts for loved ones. But in January 2024, the segment regained its lead, growing YoY visits even as Overall Retail languished in the face of an Arctic blast that had many consumers hunkering down at home.
C-Stores’ current strength is partially due to the significant innovation by leading players in the space: Chains like Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s are investing in both in their product offerings and in their physical venues to transform the humble C-Store from a stop along the way into a bona fide destination. Dive into the data to explore some of the key strategies helping C-Stores drive consumer engagement and stay ahead of the pack.
While chain expansion may explain some of the C-Store segment growth, a look at visit-per-location trends shows that demand is growing at the store level as well. Over the past year (April 2023 to March 2024), average visits per location on an industry-wide basis grew by 1.8%, compared to the year prior (April 2022 to 2023).
And within this growing segment, some brands are distinguishing themselves and outperforming category averages. Casey’s, for example, saw the average number of visits to each of its locations increase by 2.3% over the same time frame – while Maverik, Buc-ee’s and Rutter’s saw visits per location increase by 3.2%, 3.4% and 3.9%, respectively.
Each in its own way, Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s, are helping to transform C-Stores from pit stops where people can stretch their legs and grab a cup of coffee to destinations in and of themselves.
Midwestern gas and c-store chain Casey’s – famous for its breakfast pizza and other grab-and-go breakfast items – has emerged as a prime spot for fast food pizza lovers to grab a slice first thing in the morning. And Salt Lake City, Utah-based Maverik – which recently acquired Kum & Go and its 400-plus stores – is also establishing itself as a breakfast destination thanks to its specialty burritos and other chef-inspired creations.
Casey’s and Maverik’s popular breakfast options are likely helping the chains receive its larger-than-average share of morning visits: In Q1 2024, 16.3% of visits to Maverik and 17.5% of visits to Casey’s took place during the 7:00 AM - 10:00 AM daypart, compared to just 14.9% of visits to the wider C-Store category.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – also suggests that Casey’s and Maverik’s have opened stores in locations that allow them to reach their target audience. Compared to the average consumer, residents of Casey’s potential market are 7% more likely to be “Fast Food Pizza Lovers” than both the average consumer and the average C-Store trade area resident. Residents of Maverik’s potential market are 16% more likely than the average consumer to be “Mexican Food Enthusiasts,” compared to residents of the average C-Store’s trade area who are only 1% more likely to fall into that category.
With both chains expanding, Casey’s and Maverik can hope to introduce new audiences to their unique breakfast options and solidify their hold over the morning daypart within the C-Store space over the next few years.
Everything is said to be bigger in the Lone Star State, and Texas-based convenience store chain Buc-ee’s – holder of the record for the worlds’ largest C-Store – is no exception. With a unique array of specialty food items and award-winning bathrooms, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a well-known tourist attraction. And the popular chain’s status as a visitor hotspot is reflected in two key metrics.
First, Buc-ee’s attracts a much greater share of weekend visits than other convenience store chains. In Q1 2024, 39.6% of visits to Buc-ee’s took place on the weekends, compared to just 28.3% for the wider C-Store industry. And second, Buc-ee’s captured markets feature higher-than-average shares of family-centric households – including those belonging to Experian: Mosaic’s Suburban Style, Flourishing Families, and Promising Families segments.
Rather than merely a place to stop on the way to work, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a favored destination for families and for people looking for something fun to do on their days off.
Buc-ee’s isn’t the only C-Store chain that believes bigger is better. Pennsylvania-based Rutter’s is increasing visits and customer dwell time by expanding its footprint – both in terms of store count and venue size. New stores will be 10,000 to 12,000 square feet – significantly larger than the industry average of around 3,100 square feet. And in more urban areas, where space is at a premium, the company is building upwards.
Rutter’s added a second floor to one of its existing locations in York, PA in December 2023. The remodel, which was met with enthusiasm by customers, provided additional seating for up to 30 diners, a beer cave, and an expanded wine selection. And in Q1 2024, the location experienced 15.6% YoY visit growth – compared to a chainwide average of 7.6%. Visitors to the newly remodeled Rutter’s also stayed significantly longer than they did pre-renovation. The share of extended visits to the store (longer than ten minutes) grew from 20.8% in Q1 2023 to 27.0% in Q1 2024 – likely from people browsing the chain’s selection of beers or grabbing a bite to eat.
Convenience stores are flourishing, transforming into some of the most exciting dining and tourist destinations in the country. Today, C-Store customers can expect to find brisket sandwiches, gourmet coffees, or craft beers, rather than the stale cups of coffee of old. And the data shows that customers are receptive to these innovations, helping drive the segment’s success.
The first quarter of 2024 was generally a good one for retailers. Though unusually cold and stormy weather left its mark on the sector’s January performance, February and March saw steady year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit growth that grew more robust as the quarter wore on.
March ended on a high note, with the week of March 25th – including Easter Sunday – seeing a 6.1% YoY visit boost, driven in part by increased retail activity in the run-up to the holiday. (Last year, Easter fell on April 9th, 2023, so the week of March 25th is being compared to a regular week.)
Though prices remain high and consumer confidence has yet to fully regain its footing, retail’s healthy Q1 showing may be a sign of good things to come in 2024.
Drilling down into the data for leading retail segments demonstrates the continued success of value-priced, essential, and wellness-related categories.
Discount & Dollar Stores led the pack with 11.2% YoY quarterly visit growth, followed by Grocery Stores, Fitness, and Superstores – all of which outperformed Overall Retail. Dining also enjoyed a YoY quarterly visit bump, despite the segment’s largely discretionary nature. And despite the high interest rates continuing to weigh on the housing and home renovation markets, Home Improvement & Furnishings maintained just a minor YoY visit gap.
Discount & Dollar Stores experienced strong YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – and as go-to destinations for groceries and other other essential goods, they held their own even during mid-January’s Arctic blast. In the last week of March, shoppers flocked to leading discount chains for everything from chocolate Easter bunnies to basket-making supplies – driving a remarkable 21.5% YoY visit spike.
Dollar General continued to dominate the Discount & Dollar Store space in Q1, with visits to its locations accounting for nearly half of the segment’s quarterly foot traffic (44.7%). Next in line was Dollar Tree, followed by Family Dollar and Five Below. Together, the four chains – all of which experienced positive YoY quarterly visit growth – drew a whopping 91.6% of quarterly visits to the category.
Rain or shine, people have to eat. And like Discount & Dollar Stores, traditional Grocery Stores were relatively busy through January as shoppers braved the storms to stock up on needed items. Momentum continued to build throughout the quarter, culminating in a 10.5% foot traffic increase in the week ending with Easter Sunday.
Like in other categories, it was budget-friendly Grocery banners that took the lead. No-frills Aldi drove a chain-wide 24.4% foot traffic increase in Q1, by expanding its fleet – while also growing the average number of visits per location. Other value-oriented chains, including Trader Joe’s and Food Lion, experienced significant foot traffic increases of their own. And though conventional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger, and Albertsons saw smaller visit bumps, they too outperformed Q1 2023 by meaningful margins.
January is New Year’s resolution season – when people famously pick themselves up off the couch, dust off their trainers, and vow to go to the gym more often. And with wellness still top of mind for many consumers, the Fitness category enjoyed robust YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – despite lapping a strong Q1 2023.
Predictably, Fitness’s visit growth slowed during the last week of March, when many Americans likely indulged in Easter treats rather than work out. But given the category’s strength over the past several years, there is every reason to believe it will continue to flourish.
For Fitness chains, too, cost was key to success in Q1 – with value gyms experiencing the biggest visit jumps. EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, both of which offer low-cost membership options, saw their Q1 visits skyrocket 28.9% and 22.0% YoY, respectively – helped in part by aggressive expansions. At the same time, premium and mid-range gyms like Life Time and LA Fitness are also finding success – showing that when it comes to Fitness, there’s plenty of room for a variety of models to thrive.
Superstores – including wholesale clubs – are prime destinations for big, planned shopping expeditions – during which customers can load up on a month’s supply of food items or stock up on home goods. And perhaps for this reason, the category felt the impact of January’s inclement weather more than either dollar chains or supermarkets – which are more likely to see shoppers pop in as needed for daily essentials.
But like Grocery Stores and Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores ended the quarter with an impressive YoY visit spike, likely fueled by Easter holiday shoppers.
As in Q4 2023, membership warehouse chains – Costco Wholesale, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club – drove much of the Superstore category’s positive visit growth, as shoppers likely engaged in mission-driven shopping in an effort to stretch their budgets. Still, segment mainstays Walmart and Target also enjoyed positive foot traffic growth, with YoY visits up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively.
Moving into more discretionary territory, Dining experienced a marked January slump, as hunkered-down consumers likely opted for delivery. But the segment rallied in February and March, even though foot traffic dipped slightly during the last week of March, when many families gathered to enjoy home-cooked holiday meals.
Coffee Chains and Fast-Casual Restaurants saw the largest YoY visit increases, followed by QSR – highlighting the enduring power of lower-cost, quick-serve dining options. But Full-Service Restaurants (FSR) also saw a slight segment-wide YoY visit uptick in Q1 – good news for a sector that has yet to bounce back from the one-two punch of COVID and inflation. Within each Dining category, however, some chains experienced outsize visit growth – including favorites like Dutch Bros. Coffee, Slim Chickens, In-N-Out Burger, and Texas Roadhouse.
Since the shelter-in-place days of COVID – when everybody had their sourdough starter and DIY was all the rage – Home Improvement & Furnishings chains have faced a tough environment. Many deferred or abandoned home improvement projects in the wake of inflation, and elevated interest rates coupled with a sluggish housing market put a further damper on the category.
Against this backdrop, Home Improvement & Furnishings’ relatively lackluster Q1 visit performance should come as no surprise. But the narrowing of the visit gap in March – which also saw one week of positive visit growth – may serve as a promising sign for the segment. (The abrupt foot traffic drop during the week of March 25th, 2024 is likely a just reflection of Easter holiday shopping pattern.)
Within the Home Improvement & Furnishings space, some bright spots stood out in Q1 – including Harbor Freight Tools, which saw visits increase by 10.0%, partly due to the brand’s growing store count. Tractor Supply Co., Menards, and Ace Hardware also registered visit increases.
January 2024’s stormy weather left its mark on the Q1 retail environment, especially for discretionary categories. But as the quarter progressed, retailers rallied, with healthy YoY foot traffic growth that peaked during the last week of March – the week of Easter Sunday. All in all, retail’s positive Q1 performance leaves plenty of room for optimism about what’s in store for the rest of 2024.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
