.svg)
Limited-assortment value grocery stores like Aldi and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market have thrived in recent years, as inflation-wary consumers sought out ways to save money at the till.
But how are these chains faring in 2024? Have cooling inflation and increased consumer confidence put a dent in their performance? We dove into the data to find out.
As the name suggests, limited-assortment grocery stores are known for carrying fewer products than traditional grocery stores in a bid to cut down on overhead costs and pass savings on to consumers. These chains also utilize other methods, such as private label brands, opportunistic merchandising, and fewer in-store amenities, to keep prices low.
And foot traffic data shows that in the first part of 2024, consumers continued flocking to these brands to grab groceries at a discount – driving year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth that far outperformed that of traditional grocery stores. In May 2024, for example, visits to the overall grocery segment grew by 7.9% YoY, while Aldi and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market experienced YoY growth of 26.3%, 14.3%, and respectively.
Some of this foot traffic growth can be attributed to the two chains’ continued expansion: Aldi added dozens of new stores in 2023 – with hundreds more in the pipeline – and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market also significantly grew its footprint. But the average number of visits to both brands’ individual locations also increased, again outpacing traditional grocery, showing that their expansion is meeting robust demand.
Looking into the loyalty rates of visitors to these limited-assortment value chains provides more reason for optimism for the sector: Over the past three years, Aldi and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market both saw an increase in loyal visits – defined as those made by people who frequented the chains at least four times in a month.
In April 2022, for example, 28.0% of visits to Aldi and 27.0% of visits to Grocery Outlet Bargain Market were made by people who visited the chains at least four times during the month – but by 2024, these shares grew to 30.1% and 30.2%, respectively. A similar trend was observed in May 2024.
Increasingly, it seems, people are doing at least part of their routine weekly grocery shopping at these limited-assortment chains. And with consumers continuing to seek ways to save money, these grocers are well-positioned to continue growing their visit shares.
The limited-assortment, value grocery model continues to prove its staying power, with impressive foot traffic, visits per location, and loyalty rates.
Will the segment continue on its upward trajectory?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. Among the notable chains featured are Walmart, Target, Costco, Kroger, Ulta Beauty, The Home Depot, McDonald’s, Chipotle, Crunch Fitness, and Trader Joe's. The goal of the list is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining, and shopping center segments.
Foot traffic patterns at leading chains can serve as an interesting proxy for consumer sentiment – offering a glimpse into the overall health of the retail and dining spaces. And analyzing the YoY foot traffic performance of the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining over the past twelve months reveals that, for the most part, major retail and dining players have enjoyed consistently strong visit growth. In November and December 2023 – during the height of last year’s holiday shopping season – foot traffic to the chains included in the Index increased 2.9% and 3.7% respectively, compared to the equivalent period of 2022.
And although 2024 opened with a slight, weather-driven YoY decline in visits, retail and dining foot traffic quickly bounced back, finishing out May with a 5.1% increase. This springtime jump was partly due to two special calendar days – Mother’s Day weekend, and Memorial Day weekend – both of which drove bigger visit spikes this year than in 2023.
These robust visitation patterns highlight consumer resilience in the face of headwinds – and may be an encouraging indicator of a thriving summer ahead.
Zooming into the Index’s regional performance during May 2024 uncovers impressive positive YoY visit growth across the nation.
The Midwest led the way, buoyed by strong YoY foot traffic growth in South Dakota (6.7%), Michigan (6.4%), and North Dakota (6.4%). But the two states with the biggest YoY visit boosts – Vermont (7.4%) and New Hampshire (7.0%) – were in the Northeast, and the South and West performed well too. This impressive increase in retail and dining visits was observed across the vast majority of the continental U.S., regardless of population size and local weather conditions. Such widespread growth indicates a robust and uniform recovery in consumer activity nationwide, suggesting that factors beyond regional characteristics, such as slowing inflation and increased consumer confidence, played a significant role in driving this trend.
Drilling down into the rankings of individual chains in the index can highlight some of the key trends shaping retail and dining this year.
Value-oriented retailers – including Aldi, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, and Dollar General, – featured prominently among May’s top performers, both for YoY chain-wide visits and for YoY average visits per location. This robust showing demonstrates the continued draw of budget fare, which has been observed across a wide range of segments – from grocery to apparel.
The quest for savings spilled over into other segments as well. Value gym Crunch Fitness, which grew its footprint significantly over the past year, ranked among the top performers both for overall visits and for visits per location – showcasing the success of its expansion strategy. And casual dining chains Chili’s Grill & Bar and Buffalo Wild Wings also made the list, with YoY visit growth likely driven by successful value promotions.
Indeed, Chili's Grill & Bar – propelled by its hit Big Smasher Burger promotion – has emerged as this month's leading chain, topping the charts both for overall visits (26.3%) and for average visits per location (26.1%).
Hungry, budget-conscious diners can get Chili’s Big Smasher as part of the chain’s signature 3 for Me deal, which lets diners choose a beverage, starter, and main course starting at $10.99. And the offering, which was launched on April 29th, 2024, has become a sensation – going viral on TikTok and garnering significant media attention.
The promotion is competitively priced against QSR offerings, at a time when fast-food chains have seen slowing sales due to cutbacks by inflation-wary consumers. Chili's has been praised for delivering exceptional value – and taking a closer look at weekly visitation trends shows that this strategy is paying off. Chili’s saw a surge of weekly visit growth beginning the week of the promotion (April 29th), and has continued thriving since. This highlights the importance of understanding consumer needs and finding ways to deliver value.
Will June continue to see a rise in retail and dining visits as summer approaches? Will the success of retail and dining foot traffic remain evenly spread across regions, even as some areas are more affected by summer heat? And will value-oriented retailers continue to dominate the ten top performers in retail and dining?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
It’s no secret that the restaurant category is starting to get more promotional. As consumers–especially lower income consumers–have shifted toward substitute food retail channels like value grocers, warehouse clubs, and convenience stores due to the compounded effect of food-away-from home inflation, restaurant chains across all tiers are resorting to increased promotional activity to drive visit trends.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve discussed that several casual dining chains had seen success through all-you-can eat and other deep discount promotions. Last week, we noted that Chili’s had been outperforming broader casual-dining category averages through its value messaging. We also noted the success of Buffalo Wild Wings All-You-Can Eat wings promotions on Monday and Wednesdays starting in mid-May. Below, we show visit trends to Buffalo Wild Wings on Mondays and Wednesdays compared to their year-to-date averages since the beginning of March. The promotion has helped to drive incremental visits on two traditionally slower days. During May, the chain was seeing visits greater than 30% its normal daily visit count for Mondays and Wednesdays during the earlier part of the promotion and exceeding 50% during the latter part of the month. While it's unlikely that this promotion will be permanent–restaurants have to work with their suppliers ahead of time to make sure they have sufficient food for promotions like this–but given the success, the chain may consider running during other months (and potentially other days of the week) later this year.
However, as we noted in our recap of this year’s National Restaurant Association show, QSR chains have started to get more promotional ahead as they look to recapture visit share lost to value grocers, dollar stores, and c-stores (especially within lower-income trade areas). McDonald’s will launch a national $5 value menu promotion on June 25, but it’s clear that other QSR chains are already seeing success with their competing $5 promotions. Below, we show year-over-year weekly visit trends from March through early June for the major QSR burger chains. Burger King launched its own $5 Your Way Meal value menu this past week, and has seen visit trends accelerate since then. Starbucks–which has historically stayed away from discounts as a way to protect its premium brand position–also surprised the industry by announcing a $5-$7 “pairings menu” this week.
Easing commodity costs have allowed restaurants to get more promotional, although when paired with rising labor costs (especially in California, which we covered last week), it does set up an environment where restaurant profits will likely be squeezed over the next several months. Also, substitute food retail channels are likely to introduce their own price reductions in the months to come (as we’ve already seen from Walmart).
Summer has unofficially arrived, and with that comes the desire to relax, unwind and travel. And despite some of the economic uncertainty still facing consumers, 2024 is off to a surprising start for traffic in certain parts of retail. According to AAA, auto traffic growth for Memorial Day weekend was projected to grow by 4% compared to last year and by almost 2% versus 2019. Car travel has long been seen as the value-based travel method across the U.S., and who can forget the allure of the “summer road trip”. But inflationary pressures may have made it less appealing over the past few years. In the most recent consumer price index for May 2024, a drop in gasoline prices was a large positive contributor to the overall rate of 3.3%, which could provide a stronger consumer push for summer car travel.
With the positive momentum in auto traffic and gas prices, gas station and convenience store traffic has greatly benefited since Memorial Day weekend. In fact, visits to chains from May 20 to June 10 this year increased by 11% compared to the same weeks in 2023 and 15% versus 2022. Traffic to convenience stores and gas chains is up almost 30% compared to the same weeks in 2019. Traffic growth steadily climbed over the course of the three weekends measured, and the weeks had some of the highest growth rates so far in 2024 with the exception of a week in March. Even with the projected increase in auto traffic across the country, convenience and gas is the summer blockbuster, building on the consumer trends of the past year and the successful strategies of various retailers.
Wawa, in particular, saw strong visit patterns in the first unofficial few weeks of summer travel. The chain at a total level is up an impressive 14% year-over-year for the measured weeks. Looking at Wawa’s performance across various states, Florida drove much of the growth in traffic as the weather heats up, and outperformed some of the brand’s stronghold states like Pennsylvania & New Jersey. Average dwell times at Wawa locations in Florida are almost a minute higher than the chain average, highlighting that stores are not only pulling in more visits, but keeping visitors in-store for longer. The strong performance of the Florida locations, even during the off season, corroborates the brand’s investment in expansion across the state. One might suspect that Wawa is well positioned heading into the remainder of the summer with its coastal strategy.
Will C-stores continue to grow traffic as we officially enter the summer season? All signs point to yes, even if gas prices rise due to increased demand. Chains have done a fantastic job of enticing consumers with unique food offerings and might become the must-visit destination before heading to the beach this summer.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. operates a portfolio that includes some of the biggest names in full-service dining, including Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, Yard House, Ruth’s Chris Steak House, Bahama Breeze, and Eddie V’s Prime Seafood.
How are these restaurants performing as Q3 2024 approaches? We took a closer look at the location analytics to find out which restaurant chains are thriving in today’s challenging economic climate.
Darden’s three largest restaurant chains – Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen – are some of the best-known names in casual, full-service dining. These chains have a strong presence across the country and have experienced mainly positive YoY foot traffic this year so far.
Although foot traffic was lower YoY in January and April 2024, these dips can be attributed to external factors, such as January’s inclement weather and an April calendar shift (i.e. the timing of Easter, as well as the extra Saturday in April 2023). And in May the three chains quickly rebounded, ending the month with respective YoY visit increases of 2.4%, 6.4%, and 2.3%.
Darden operates various smaller brands offering different dining styles and price points, ranging from upscale options like Eddie V’s and Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse to more casual spots like Bahama Breeze and Yard House. These smaller chains also experienced strong visitation patterns in early 2024 – with May YoY visits up between 3.9% and 8.5%.
Darden’s strong February and May showings were likely fueled, in part, by two distinctly important days on the Darden restaurant calendar: Valentine’s Day and Mother’s Day.
In absolute terms, Olive Garden – Darden’s largest chain by far – drew the most visits on both holidays as compared to a January 1, 2024 baseline, claiming the top spot this year as America’s favorite Mother’s Day destination. But on a relative basis, Darden’s premium brands Eddie V’s and Ruth Chris experienced the biggest visit spikes, as people splurged on celebratory outings. And laid-back chain Bahama Breeze saw a sustained visit boost from Valentine’s Day through Mother’s Day, likely owing to its strong presence in Florida – making it an attractive destination for the snowbirds and vacationers who visit the state during the winter.
And surprisingly, even casual dining venue Yard House – known for its beer and sports atmosphere rather than romantic setting – experienced a Valentine’s Day visit boost. This suggests that there is a tangible benefit from these holidays across a wide range of dining styles – and restaurant operators can use these insights to encourage visits on such occasions.
Darden continues to attract customers to its restaurants in spite of a challenging economy by offering a variety of dining choices and capitalizing on popular dining-out occasions such as Mother’s Day and Valentine’s Day.
Will the company’s visit growth continue to trend upward as 2024 wears on?
Follow Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining insights.
After a frigid start to the year, how have retail and dining foot traffic fared in the subsequent months? We dove into the data to find out.
Last year was all about experiences. But in 2024, consumer demand is once again striking a balance between “fun and stuff.” Though both retail and dining foot traffic were weighed down by January 2024’s extreme temperatures, the two categories bounced back in February, going on to see consistently positive YoY foot traffic growth through May.
May 2024’s strong showing was likely driven in part by impressive visit boosts on two important calendar highlights: Mother’s Day weekend and Memorial Day weekend. On both of these occasions, retail and dining foot traffic outperformed 2023 levels, a further sign of consumer resilience this year.
And drilling down deeper into data shows that some of this dining growth is being driven by full-service restaurants – another sign that the segment may be experiencing a comeback.
For quite some time, casual dining concepts – including both fast-casual & QSR – have had the upper hand among dining formats, as consumers sought inexpensive ways to splurge and cut back on full-service indulgences. But FSR has begun to rally, with experiential concepts, eatertainment, and breakfast-first chains driving significant traffic.
And location analytics points to a much more level playing field this year, with FSR YoY visit growth outperforming fast-casual & QSR in both March and in May. May’s visit boost in particular was likely aided by holiday visits – on both Mother’s Day and Memorial Day, full-service restaurants drew outsize crowds eager to enjoy nice meals out with friends and family.
A look at statewide visit data for both fast-casual & QSR and for full-service chains during the past three months – comparing March to May 2024 to the equivalent period of last year – shows both segments doing remarkably well throughout most of the U.S.
In the fast-casual & QSR space, all 50 states enjoyed positive YoY visit growth over the past three months – led by North Dakota (6.8%), New Hampshire (5.3%), Minnesota (5.1%), New Mexico (4.3%), and Rhode Island (4.2%). And in FSR, 42 states enjoyed positive growth – with some of the same states, including Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, claiming top spots.
Will full service continue its turnaround in the second half of 2024 and can fast-casual & QSR maintain its strength? How will overall retail traffic fare during the summer months and critical back-to-school season?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
