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Back-to-school shopping is a major driver of retail visits and sales – and this year, spending on the upcoming school year was set to be the second-highest on record. So with the frenzy winding down, we took a look at how several key retail categories and chains performed during this important season.
Overall, retail rallied throughout July and August, with weekly visits to major back-to-school categories – including superstores, department stores, and other apparel retailers – mainly outperforming last year’s visit levels. Though department stores and apparel chains saw very slight YoY declines in late July, all the analyzed categories enjoyed YoY boosts beginning the week of August 5th. And since the back-to-school season is traditionally a high-traffic period, the ability of these categories to sustain YoY growth is particularly impressive.
Digging deeper into individual brands reveals substantial visit boosts at superstores Target and Walmart and warehouse membership club Costco.
Target, already enjoying positive momentum from summer sales events, drove visits even higher with steep discounts on essential back-to-school items. In addition to attracting parents on the hunt for kids’ school supplies, Target has emerged as a favorite destination for college students seeking to load up on dorm decor and other collegian necessities. And between the weeks of July 9th, 2024 and August 19th, 2024, the retailer saw weekly visits jump a remarkable 9.7% to 20.8% compared to a year-to-date (YTD) weekly average. Walmart and Costco, too, saw significant visit boosts in July August, as they drew crowds with discount and bulk offerings.
The strong performance of these retailers during the back-to-school season bodes well as they head into the critical holiday shopping period. With momentum on their side, Target, Walmart, and Costco are poised to capitalize on their competitive pricing and value offerings, potentially driving another period of robust growth.
Back-to-school often means outfitting kids and teens with new clothing, and off-price retailers – including Burlington, Marshalls, Ross, and T.J. Maxx – are reaping the benefits. With a reputation for low prices and everything from apparel to backpacks, these chains are popular choices for the back-to-school crowd. And this year, weekly visits to these retailers got a significant boost, with August 19th foot traffic up 11.0% at Burlington, 13.9% at Marshalls, 6.0% at Ross, and 15.8% at T.J. Maxx, compared to a YTD weekly average.
Superstores, department stores, and apparel retailers aren’t the only ones to benefit from the back-to-school craze – office supply stores, predictably, also experience major boosts. While weekly visits to Office Depot, OfficeMax (both owned by The ODP Corporation), and Staples had lagged behind the chains’ year-to-date (YTD) weekly visit averages during April and May, they began to recover in early July. By August, visits were surging, with the week of August 19th showing increases of 24.4% for Office Depot, 32.7% for OfficeMax, and 39.2% for Staples.
Getting a pair of new shoes for school is another time-honored tradition – and DICK’s Sporting Goods has heeded the call with massive markdowns. The chain drew back-to-school shoe and apparel shoppers with a major 50%-off sale, and visits jumped significantly – peaking during the week of August 12th at 40.5% above a January 1st, 2024 baseline.
Hibbett, meanwhile, supercharged its back-to-school campaign with discounts and free children’s haircuts, offered between July 28th and August 25th at different locations. And the events boosted foot traffic dramatically, with the week of July 29th seeing a whopping 76.1% visit increase compared to a January 1st, 2024 baseline. Though visits to both sporting goods chains began to taper off as August wore on, they remained elevated – serving as a reminder of the power of back-to-school shopping and sales.
Back-to-school season remains one of the most important shopping periods of the year, with significant consumer demand drawing visit growth across major retail categories.
Can these retailers continue drawing on this momentum into the holiday season?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
In July & August 2024, Placer.ai released multiple white papers: Los Angeles Office Trends in 2024, Q2 2024 – Retail & Restaurant Review, Domestic Tourism Trends in NYC and LA, 2024 Hotel Visit Trends, Emerging Trends for CRE in 2024, and Retail Giants in 2024: Walmart, Costco, and Target's Competitive Edge.
Below is a taste of our findings from two white papers: 2024 Hotel Visit Trends and Retail Giants in 2024: Walmart, Costco, and Target's Competitive Edge. The two white papers take a look at the visitation data to explore how leading hotel chains are driving visits in 2024, as well as exploring how Walmart, Costco, and Target are maintaining their success.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
Analyzing the captured markets* of Upper Midscale chains Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Walmart, Target, and Costco are three of the country’s most popular retailers, drawing millions of shoppers each day. Each has distinct strengths that cater to their unique customer bases, helping them thrive in a competitive market.
Costco’s wholesale club model led the way in H1 2024, with consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth ranging from 6.1% in January 2024 to 13.3% in June. Walmart followed closely, with YoY foot traffic growth during all but two months. Target had a slower start, with visits below 2023 levels from January to April, and a 3.7% decline in YoY comparable sales. However, visits rebounded in May (2.5%), June (8.9%), and July (4.7%). This renewed growth bodes well for Target, especially as the back-to-school season ramps up.
For all three chains, Q2 2024’s visit success was likely bolstered by summer deals and intensifying price wars aimed at attracting inflation-weary consumers back to the store.
While inflation is cooling, prices remain high, and discount and dollar stores are increasingly challenging Walmart, Target, and Costco. Many customers, especially those of more modest means, are drawn to the rock-bottom prices at dollar stores.
Analysis of cross-shopping patterns shows that a growing share of Walmart, Target, and Costco visitors also frequent Dollar Tree regularly. In Q2 2019, between 9.8% and 13.7% of visitors to these retailers visited Dollar Tree at least three times, but by Q2 2024, that share rose to 16.7%-21.6%.
Dollar Tree is capitalizing on this interest. Over the past year, it added 350 Dollar Tree locations while closing nearly 400 Family Dollar stores. The chain also acquired leases for 170 99 Cents Only Stores, gaining access to customers who buy everything from groceries to household goods. As Dollar Tree expands its footprint and food offerings, it poses a growing challenge to Walmart, Target, and Costco.
Read the full reports to discover more hotel and superstore insights. For more data-driven consumer research, visit our resource library.
Big Lots – the big-box discount store offering everything from snacks to higher-ticket items like furniture and mattresses – recently announced a major rightsizing initiative. Against the backdrop of declining sales, the company disclosed its intention to shutter up to 315 stores in coming months.
We dove into the data to explore some of the factors that may be impacting Big Lots’ store closure decisions – and to see which chains stand to benefit the most from Big Lots’ big move.
Store closures mean major markdowns – and the some 280 Big Lots locations already slated to close are drawing crowds with big sales. Analyzing monthly visit fluctuations at Big Lots shows that the shuttering locations experienced an impressive 19.2% month-over-month (MoM) visit spike in July 2024, even as the chain as a whole saw just a 1.9% uptick. Customers, it seems, are flocking to the stores on the chopping block to snag high-ticket items at even steeper discounts.
Rightsizing is all about fleet optimization – trimming underperforming locations and retaining those stores best equipped to meet the needs of a chain’s evolving customer base. And identifying common denominators among stores slated for closure can shed light on the considerations informing a retailer’s rightsizing strategy.
Analyzing the median household incomes (HHIs) of Big Lots’ closing locations' captured markets shows that the retailer is shuttering stores that serve more affluent consumers than the chain as a whole. Nationwide, for example, Big Lots drew visitors from areas with a median HHI of $65.5K in H1 2024. But the Big Lots slated for closure drew shoppers from areas with a median HHI of $73.5K. This pattern repeated itself across major markets where Big Lots is reducing its footprint – including Ohio, Florida, Washington, California, and Arizona.
Big Lots has noted a revitalization strategy focused on value and even more extreme bargain offerings. And the decision to shutter stores in more affluent areas may reflect a move by the retailer to lean into its core audience of price-conscious shoppers – though higher HHI customers can still benefit from the chain’s value offerings.
As Big Lots reduces its fleet, shoppers will naturally seek out alternatives. But which chains are best poised to reap the benefits? Cross-shopping data shows, unsurprisingly, that the vast majority of Big Lots visitors also frequent superstores – especially Walmart. In Q2 2024, a whopping 92.3% of Big Lots visitors nationwide stopped by a Walmart – compared to 52.7% for Target and just 20.8% for Costco.
But shopping behaviors vary significantly between regions. And zooming in on California, where Big Lots plans to close a majority of its 109 locations, paints a different picture. Golden State Big Lots shoppers, to be sure, also visit Walmart in high numbers (74.6% in Q2 2024). But they are much more likely than nationwide visitors to the chain to frequent Target and Costco. Given Big Lots’ significant fleet reduction in California, these two chains appear well-positioned to acquire some of this new regional business.
And drilling down even deeper into the habits of California shoppers at Big Lots, Walmart, Target, and Costco shows that of the three retail giants, Costco may be especially well-positioned to benefit from Big Lots’ Golden State closures.
Like Big Lots, Costco draws a high share of visits during the mornings and afternoons – with just over 50.0% of 10:00 AM - 8:00 PM visits taking place between 10:00 AM and 3:00 PM. As Big Lots’ California footprint contracts, some of these mid-day shoppers may hop over to Costco, which is also bustling during these hours.
Rightsizing creates opportunities – both for chains taking proactive steps to optimize their fleets, and for competitors seeking to pick up extra business. How will Big Lots’ big rightsizing move continue to play out in the months ahead?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Dave & Buster's and Main Event, two leading chains in the eatertainment industry, offer a unique mix of dining, arcade games, and immersive experiences, successfully drawing crowds seeking more than just a meal out.
We took a closer look at the two chains – both of them owned by parent company Dave & Busters Entertainment, Inc. – to see how they are faring as summer winds down.
Dave & Buster’s and Main Event have plenty of games for children – but with extensive drinks menus, they also decidedly cater to adults, offering both groups a much-needed opportunity to kick back, play some games, and enjoy a meal out with friends.
And recent foot traffic data shows that despite challenges, both chains are seeing overall YoY visit increases – partially driven by the chains’ fleet expansions. On a quarterly basis, foot traffic to Dave & Buster’s and Main Event has remained elevated year over year (YoY) since Q3 2023, finishing out Q2 2024 with respective visit boosts of 6.9% and 4.7%.
As prime eatertainment destinations, Dave & Buster’s and Main Event are busiest on weekends – with Saturday evening between 7:00 to 10:00 PM drawing the biggest crowds to both chains.
Between August 2023 and July 2024, 11.9% of visits to Dave & Buster’s and 9.4% of visits to Main Event took place during the Saturday evening time slot. Friday and Sunday also experienced increased foot traffic, with hourly fluctuations reflecting the rhythms of weekend activities: Friday visits picked up between 7:00 and 10:00 PM, as people likely wrapped up their work weeks and headed out to unwind with a drink and some skee ball. Sunday visits followed the opposite pattern, with stronger foot traffic earlier in the day that tapered off towards evening, as people put down their pool cues and got ready for the upcoming week.
But Dave & Buster’s and Main Event are both adept at harnessing special promotions to drive visits on off-peak, weekday hours. Dave & Buster’s famous Wednesdays half-off deals fueled significant visit upticks throughout the analyzed period – so it may come as no surprise that the chain recently stepped up its off-peak offerings with a new all-you-can-eat weekday wings deal. And Main Event, which has long offered a Monday Night Madness promotions, also unveiled a “Summer Season Pass” to encourage weekday visits among its customers.
Visitor behavior to Dave and Buster’s and Main Event also changes throughout the week. Analyzing the average driving distances of visitors to the two chains shows, unsurprisingly, that people drive further distances to visit the venues on the weekends – when they have more time on their hands.
Between August 2023 and July 2024, 43.9% of weekend visits (Friday to Sunday) to Dave & Buster’s, and 49.7% of weekend visits to Main Event were made by people traveling 10 miles or less to reach the restaurant. On Weekdays (Monday to Thursday), these numbers increased to 49.4% and 55.3%, respectively – indicating that on weekdays, the eatertainment chains are particularly appealing to locals looking for a convenient night out.
But interestingly, it was on weekdays that visitors to the two chains were most likely to come from more than 100 miles away, suggesting that these customers may be on vacation away from home – the perfect time to pop into an arcade mid-week and “unlearn adulthood.”
Dave & Buster's and Main Event Entertainment continue to flourish, attracting weekend crowds and drawing visitors from near and far. Can the two eatertainment chains continue to draw crowds as summer draws to a close?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven dining and entertainment trends.
The last several years have seen many Americans relocate to states like Texas, Florida, Montana, and Maine. We checked in with another region of the country that’s become a domestic migration hotspot in recent years – South Carolina – to explore what’s attracting movers to the state.
Analyzing domestic migration trends throughout the United States between June 2020 and June 2024 reveals several regions of the country that have attracted new residents over the past four years. Idaho led the charge with positive domestic net migration of 4.5%, meaning that the total number of people that moved to Idaho from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left, constituted 4.5% of the state’s June 2024 population.
And South Carolina – with a thriving economy, a robust job market, and plenty of affordable living – came in a close second, with a net domestic migration increase of 3.5%. Several other Southeastern states also saw a net inflow of relocators – including Tennessee (2.0%), Alabama (0.7%), Georgia (0.5%), Florida (2.4%), and North Carolina (2.1%).
To uncover local trends driving South Carolina’s net migration growth we analyzed the quarterly cumulative migration to several of the state’s largest CBSAs, focusing on the period between Q1 2020 and Q2 2024.
Of the CBSAs analyzed, Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach saw the most significant influx of new residents – with a whopping 12.9% cumulative net migration as of Q2 2024. With a low cost of living, a vibrant job market, and plenty of access to the outdoors, it may come as no surprise that Myrtle Beach has become the nation’s fastest-growing city and most popular relocation hotspot. The CBSA is also home to The Grand Strand – a collection of unique communities spanning 60 miles of pristine beaches.
The Charleston-North Charleston metro area also experienced substantial cumulative migration between early 2020 and Q2 2024 (4.7%). The CBSA’s primary municipality, Charleston, has been acclaimed as a top destination for relocators, due in part to its rich history, culture, and sense of community. And like Myrtle Beach, Charleston is also on the coast.
And diving deeper into population growth patterns in South Carolina’s Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach metro area showcases the unique lifestyle that is attracting many new residents. In many regions of the country, suburban areas are experiencing the most substantial population growth. But in Myrtle Beach – and in South Carolina more generally – it is urban areas that are on the rise.
Between June 2020 and June 2024, South Carolina’s urban population grew by 4.3%, compared to 3.3% for suburban communities, and 2.3% for rural ones. Over the same period, urban areas in the Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach metro area saw a remarkable 9.9% population increase, likely driven by the popularity of hubs like Myrtle Beach and North Myrtle Beach – coveted by lovers of the year-round beach lifestyle. Still, the CBSA’s suburban and rural communities also experienced significant population growth, outperforming statewide baselines.
South Carolina is home to several metro areas seeing positive net migration, and its coastline is one of the most popular regions for new residents. Will these areas continue to see population growth? Which other parts of the country are popular for those taking on relocation?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Summer events and concerts are more than just entertainment – they drive community engagement and have a significant economic impact on local businesses.
We took a closer look at the effect of major summer events, like Lollapalooza in Chicago and Governors Ball in New York, on foot traffic to local venues.
The first Lollapalooza – a four-day music festival – took place in 1991. Chicago’s Grant Park became the event’s permanent home (at least in the United States) in 2005, drawing thousands of revelers and music fans to the park each year.
This year, the festival once again demonstrated its powerful impact on the city. On August 1st, 2024, visits to Grant Park surged by 1,313.2% relative to the YTD daily average, as crowds converged on the park to see Chappell Roan’s much-anticipated performance. And during the first three days of the event, the event drew significantly more foot traffic than in 2023 – with visits up 18.9% to 35.9% compared to the first three days of last year’s festival (August 3rd to 5th, 2023).
Lollapalooza led to a dramatic spike in visits to Grant Park – and it also attracted a different type of visitor compared to the rest of the year.
Analyzing Grant Park’s captured market with Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals that Lollapalooza attendees are more likely to belong to the “Young Professionals” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment groups than the typical Grant Park visitor.
By contrast, the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” segment group, comprising middle-class diverse families living in or near cities, made up only 6.5% of visitors during the festival, compared to 12.0% during the rest of the year.
Additionally, visitors during Lollapalooza came from areas with higher HHIs than both the nationwide baseline of $76.1K and the average for park visitors throughout the year. Understanding the demographic profile of visitors to the park during Lollapalooza can help planners and city officials tailor future events to these segment groups – or look for ways to make the festival accessible to a wider range of music lovers.
Lollapalooza’s impact on Chicago extended beyond the boundaries of Grant Park, with nearby hotels seeing remarkable surges in foot traffic. The Congress Plaza Hotel on South Michigan Avenue witnessed a staggering 249.1% rise in visits during the week of July 29, 2024, compared to the YTD visit average. And Travelodge on East Harrison Street saw an impressive 181.8% increase. These spikes reflect the festival’s draw not just for locals but for out-of-town visitors who fill hotels across the city.
The North Michigan Avenue retail corridor also enjoyed a significant increase in foot traffic during the festival, with visits on Thursday, August 1st 56.0% higher than the YTD Thursday visit average. On Friday, August 2nd, visits to the corridor were 55.7% higher than the Friday visit average. These numbers highlight Lollapalooza’s role in driving economic activity across Chicago, as festival-goers venture beyond the park to explore the city’s vibrant retail and hospitality offerings.
City parks often serve as community hubs, and Flushing Meadows Corona Park in Queens, NY, has been a major gathering point for New Yorkers. The park hosted one of New York’s most beloved summer concerts – Governors Ball – which moved from Governors Island to Flushing Meadows in 2023.
During the festival (June 9th -11th, 2024), musicians like Post Malone and The Killers drew massive crowds to the park, with visits soaring to the highest levels seen all year. On June 9th, the opening day of the festival, foot traffic in the park was up 214.8% compared to the YTD daily average, and at its height, on June 8th, the festival drew 392.7% more visits than the YTD average.
The park also hosted other big events this summer – a July 21st set by DMC helped boost visits to 185.1% above the YTD average. And the Hong Kong Dragon Boat Festival on August 3rd and 4th led to major visit boosts of 221.4% and 51.6%, respectively.
These events not only draw large crowds, but also highlight the park’s role as a space where cultural and civic life can find expression, flourish, and contribute to the health of local communities.
Analyzing changes in Flushing Meadows Corona Park’s trade area size offers insight into how far people are willing to travel for these events. During Governors Ball, for example, the park’s trade area ballooned to 254.5 square miles, showing the festival's wide appeal. On July 20th, by contrast, when the park hosted several local bands and DJs, the trade area was a much more modest 57.0 square miles.
Summer events drive community engagement, economic activity, and civic pride. Cities that invest in their parks and event hubs, fostering lively and inclusive spaces, can create lasting value for both residents and visitors, enriching the cultural and social life of urban areas.
For more data-driven civic stories, visit Placer.ai.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
