.svg)
Kohl’s has faced a challenging period marked by store closures, leadership instability and a 6.5% decline in comparable sales last year. So it may come as no surprise that the department store continued to see year-over-year (YoY) visit gaps in Q1 2025 – with YoY foot traffic down nearly every month since August 2024.
Still, Q1 2025 saw the department store’s YoY visit gap shrink to just 2.7%, with March experiencing a slight uptick in visits YoY. Kohl’s narrower Q1 visit gap may be a promising sign for the retailer, especially given the inclement weather that kept many consumers at home in February.
Sephora at Kohl’s also remains a bright spot, contributing to an 8.8% net sales increase in the department store’s Accessories category in 2024. And a regional snapshot of YoY visit trends shows that much of the western United States actually experienced a YoY visit increase in Q1 – a trend the company’s incoming CEO may wish to build upon.
What lies in store for Kohl’s in the months to come?
Follow Placer.ai's data driven retail analyses to find out.
The apparel landscape is constantly adapting to changing consumer preferences and behavior. And in Q1 2025, top sportswear and athleisure brands DICK’s Sporting Goods and lululemon athletica showed that partnering with star athletes and making bold statements at major competitions is one way to build success in the long term. What did location analytics reveal about this strategy? We dove into the data to find out.
Visits to DICK’s and lululemon declined in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, perhaps due in part to the continued emphasis on value-first apparel segments.
Still, diving deeper reveals several reasons for optimism. First, a closer look at YoY monthly visits reveals that February’s performance weighed heavily on the brands’ quarterly performance, as YoY visits dipped significantly due to the comparison to 2024’s leap year and inclement weather that kept many consumers at home. In January, March and April 2025, visits remained closer or even exceeded 2024 levels – more indicative of the brands’ overall performance.
Second, these visit gaps may have been partially offset by success through other channels: Both lululemon and DICK’s recently cited digital revenue gains and omnichannel growth, which could pave the way for other long-term growth opportunities in retail media.
And despite the slower quarter, DICK’s still demonstrated its ability to leverage partnerships and sporting events to drive in-store traffic.
Saturday is typically DICK’s busiest day of the week, and during all five Saturdays in March 2025, visits to DICK’s significantly outperformed the Q1 2025 Saturday average. This is likely due to DICK’s NCAA partnership and media investments during “March Madness”, which saw fans flock to DICK’s to stock up on college basketball gear leading up to and during The Big Dance. DICK’s also capitalized on its March Madness traction by launching a timely celebrity athlete campaign that may also have contributed to elevated Saturday traffic.
Lululemon has also adopted a bold strategy of star-athlete partnerships and high visibility at events to grow brand awareness.
At the WM Phoenix Open at the TPC Stadium Course in Scottsdale, AZ in February 2025, lululemon orchestrated an attention-grabbing crew of identically-dressed fans to accompany brand ambassador and pro-golfer Min Woo Lee. And at the BNP Paribas Open played in Indian Wells, CA, lululemon celebrated its professional tennis ambassadors Frances Tiafoe and Leylah Fernandez with an immersive installation on the tournament grounds and nearby lululemon store.
Diving into the psychographic characteristics of the regions from which lululemon and the two sports venues – TPC Stadium Course and Indian Wells Tennis Garden – receive visits reveals how making a statement during professional contests aligned with lululemon’s goal to grow brand awareness among its target audience.
Perhaps as would be expected, in 2024, lululemon’s potential trade area had more “Athleisure Enthusiasts” – Spatial.ai: FollowGraph segment for likely followers of lululemon and other athleisure brands on social media – than the nationwide average. However, the potential trade areas of Indian Well Tennis Garden and TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course had even higher concentrations of “Athleisure Enthusiasts”. This suggests that by investing in high visibility at these venues, lululemon was likely to build brand awareness among more of its potential visitor base.
Although visits to DICK’s and lululemon lagged in Q1 2025, there is still reason for optimism surrounding these brands. Seasonal sporting events like March Madness, in which DICK’s is an integral part, can play a role in driving traffic to stores. Meanwhile, lululemon appears to have found a formula to reach more of its target audience by making a statement at athletic events.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
Like many e-commerce retailers, Wayfair jumped on the brick-and-mortar bandwagon last year with a large-format flagship store at Edens Plaza in Wilmette, IL – giving customers a physical space to explore its products. To mark the store’s one year anniversary (it opened to great fanfare on May 23rd, 2024 – just a few days before Memorial Day), we dove into the data to examine the profile and behavior of its visitors – and see how they compare to the wider home furnishings space.
Location analytics show that Wayfair has emerged as a go-to furniture destination, drawing visitors from farther away than the industry standard. Wayfair’s large-format store also attracts an above-average share of weekend foot traffic, with most visits occurring on Saturdays and Sundays. During these peak times, customers can leisurely browse Wayfair’s extensive offerings, enjoy the onsite café, and take advantage of free design and home improvement consulting services. The store also attracts an affluent audience – from areas with a higher median HHI than either the nationwide baseline or the broader home furnishings segment.
Given Wayfair’s popularity – the Wilmette location has emerged as a major traffic driver to the mall – it may come as no surprise that plans are already in the works to open two more large-format Wayfair locations. How will the retailer continue to fare as it expands its footprint?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
Overall visits to Gap Banners declined 3.8% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with average visits per location falling 4.2%. The company’s performance appears to have been impacted by a particularly challenging February, when the absence of a leap year day and severe weather events led to a 10.2% drop in overall visits and an 11.0% decrease in average visits per venue compared to February 2024.
The company’s traffic was also somewhat weighed down by Banana Republic’s performance, which posted the largest year-over-year (YoY) declines of all Gap banners during the analyzed period. Meanwhile, the Athleta banner – which struggled somewhat in 2024 – returned to modest growth in Q1 2025, with overall visits up 0.4% and average visits per location up 1.1% YoY.
Gap’s performance improved significantly in April, with the Gap and Old Navy banners seeing YoY increases in both overall visits and average visits per venue. Old Navy in particular saw its overall traffic jump 10.2% and average visits per location increase by 9.1% compared to April 2024 – likely boosted by a tariff-driven pull-forward in consumer demand.
Average visits per venue also increased at Banana Republic and Athleta – although both banners saw minor YoY declines in overall traffic. The positive April data may indicate that the company is gaining traction and could suggest a more robust year ahead.
Ulta saw YoY declines of 3.7% in total visits and 7.1% in average visits per venue in Q1 2025, driven in part by difficult comparisons to a strong Q1 2024. Like Gap, the company’s February performance likely hurt its Q1 performance, with February traffic down 7.4% and average visits per venue down 10.7% compared to February 2024. But Ulta’s visit metrics improved in March 2025, with visits just 1.0% lower than in March 2024, and average visits per venue metrics narrowing to a 4.3% decline.
By April 2025, overall visits were up 0.4% YoY, and visits per venue down just 2.8% – suggesting that Ulta, like Gap, is now on a potential upward trajectory.
While Q1 2025 presented challenges for both Gap and Ulta, the rebound in April traffic offers a hopeful indication of strengthening consumer engagement. Will the companies maintain their momentum, or was the April rally the result of a temporary pull-forward of demand?
Keep up with The Anchor to find out.
In early May 2025, horse racing fans were treated to the 151st Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY, with thoroughbred Sovereignty coming out the winner. And while all eyes were on the horses, (and maybe the hats,) we dove into the location analytics and psychographic characteristics of visitors to find out who attends the Kentucky Derby.
Analysis of Churchill Downs’ captured trade area over the last twelve months reveals that the racetrack tends to drive traffic from an affluent visitor base. Between May 2024 and April 2025 the dominant trade area audience segment was “Ultra Wealthy Families” (13.2%) – the Spatial.ai: Personalive grouping for the nation’s wealthiest households. This share of this segment within the racetrack’s trade area was well above the nationwide benchmark, more so than any other leading segment.
But digging deeper reveals Churchill Downs’ trade area contained significant shares of several suburban and rural segments as well, highlighting the non-urban quality of the racetrack’s visitors. The presence of large shares of “Wealthy Suburban Families” (12.1%) and “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” (11.4%) segments reflects a significant affluent suburban audience, while above-average shares of the “Rural Average Income” (8.6%) and “Rural High Income” (7.4%) segments indicates robust visitation from rural households with a range of incomes.
But on Kentucky Derby raceday in 2025, Churchill Downs’ audience changed significantly. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” within the venue’s trade area jumped to 20.1%, indicating that the race drove traffic from an even more affluent audience than usual, likely due to the many celebrities and other affluent guests descending on the event. Meanwhile, the share of the “Young Professionals” segment – singles still in school or starting their careers in white-collar and technical jobs – also increased (from 6.0% to 10.3%), perhaps indicating that the Kentucky Derby succeeded in attracting younger urban audiences looking for recreation and a cultural experience.
Still, non-urbanized audience segments remained well-represented within the race’s trade area (only the share of “Rural Average Income” households slipped below the segment’s nationwide benchmark), indicating that the event maintained much of Churchill Down’s typical spectator base.
Analysis of the 2025 Kentucky Derby’s physical trade area, which reflects the regions from which Churchill Downs Racetrack received visitors on the day, provides further insight into the event’s attendees.
The map below shows that the event drew spectators from the country’s major metro areas – and from some of the wealthiest – including New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Miami. And some of these visitors may have come to Louisville for an extended stay – taking advantage of multiple Derby Week events and parties – contributing to a significant economic boost for the region.
Analyzing visitors’ area of origin also revealed robust visitation from Louisville and Lexington, KY, and both urban and non-urban areas in the East North Central region as a whole, as diverse local racing fans appeared to take advantage of their proximity to the most exciting two minutes in sports.
The Kentucky Derby is just the first event of thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, which continues with the fast approaching Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
What will audiences to these high-stakes races and other upcoming sporting events look like?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
In a year marked by shifting consumer habits and mounting challenges across the restaurant industry, Chili’s emerged as one of the breakout success stories of 2024 – and early signs suggest the momentum could continue into 2025.
Although many casual dining chains have struggled in recent years, Chili’s is standing out with strong year-over-year visitation growth, boosted by compelling value promotions, operational improvements, and a renewed focus on customer loyalty. The brand’s ability to balance affordability with innovation has resonated with price-conscious diners, helping it outperform both its casual dining peers and broader industry benchmarks. As economic uncertainty persists, Chili’s strategic approach may serve as a blueprint for how full-service restaurants can thrive in today’s competitive landscape.
According to our visitation data, Chili's share of the overall category has increased from approximately 6% to around 8%, a substantial jump. This growth is especially notable given that Chili’s U.S. restaurant count actually declined over the past year, from 1,230 locations in December 2023 to 1,209 as of December 2024.
Who is Chili’s taking visit share from? Essentially, everyone. Our data indicates that in Q1 2025, a meaningfully larger percentage of visitors from most leading quick-service and full-service chains also visited Chili’s, compared to Q1 2024. Admittedly, this increase in cross-visitation is partly because there are more Chili’s visitors than ever before – but the data also highlights Chili’s growing momentum, as the chain has succeeded in pulling traffic from both casual and quick-service competitors.
Chili's undeniably carved out a remarkable success story in 2024, and the compelling early 2025 data suggests the brand is strongly positioned to continue its impressive trajectory. The ability to significantly grow its market share and draw customers from a wide array of competitors speaks volumes about the effectiveness of its value promotions, operational improvements, and customer loyalty strategies.
Chili’s continues to demonstrate a potent combination of broad appeal and deepening customer engagement. While the full narrative of 2025 for the restaurant industry continues to unfold, Chili's appears to be on track to replicate its 2024 success and could very well solidify its status as the restaurant industry's standout performer for a second consecutive year.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Walmart, Target, and Costco are three of the most popular retailers in the country, drawing millions of shoppers through their doors each day. Each of these retail giants boasts distinct strengths and strategies that cater to their unique customer bases, allowing them to thrive in a highly competitive market.
This white paper takes a closer look at some of the factors that are helping the three chains flourish. How does Walmart’s positioning as a family-friendly retailer help it drive visits in its more competitive markets? How can Target leverage its reach to drive more loyal visits? And what does the increase in young shoppers frequenting membership warehouse clubs mean for Costco?
We dove into the location analytics to explore these questions further.
Examining monthly visitation patterns for the three retail giants shows Costco’s wholesale club model leading the way with consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth – ranging from 6.1% in stormy January 2024 to 13.3% in June. Family favorite Walmart followed closely behind, seeing YoY foot traffic growth during all but two months, when visits briefly trailed slightly behind 2023 levels before rebounding.
Target, meanwhile, had a slower start to the year, with visits trending below 2023 levels for most of January to April. Over this same period (the three months ending May 2024), Target reported a 3.7% decline in YoY comparable sales. But since then, things have begun to turn around for the chain, with YoY visits rising in May (2.5%), June (8.9%), and July (4.7%). This renewed visit growth into the second half of the year bodes well for the superstore – and the ongoing back-to-school season may well push visits up further as the summer winds down.
For all three chains, Q2 2024’s visit success has likely been bolstered in part by summer deals and intensifying price wars – as the retailers slash prices to woo inflation-weary consumers back to the store.
Over the past few years, consumer behaviors have been changing rapidly in response to shifting economic conditions. This next section explores some of these changes at Walmart, Target, and Costco, to better understand what may be driving these shifts.
One way that consumers have traditionally responded to inflation and other headwinds has been through the adoption of mission-driven shopping – making fewer, but longer, trips to retailers, so that every visit counts. Superstores and wholesale clubs, which offer one-stop shopping experiences, have long been prime destinations for these extended shopping trips. And even during periods when visits have lagged, these retailers have often benefited from extended dwell times – leading to bigger basket sizes.
A look at changes in average dwell times at Walmart and Target suggests that as YoY visits have picked up, dwell times have come down – perhaps reflecting a normalization of consumers’ shopping patterns. With inflation stabilizing and gas prices lower than they were in 2022 and 2023, customers may feel less pressure to consolidate shopping trips than they have in recent years.
In contrast, Costco’s comparatively long dwell times have remained stable over the past several years. The warehouse club’s bulk offerings, plentiful free samples, and inexpensive food court encourage shoppers to spend more time browsing the aisles than they would at other retailers. And even if mission-driven shopping continues to subside, Costco customers will likely keep on making extra-long shopping trips.
While inflation is cooling faster than expected, prices remain high, and new players are stepping into the retail space occupied by Walmart, Target, and Costco – especially dollar stores. Though higher-income customers increasingly rely on the three retail giants for many of their purchases, customers of more modest means are often drawn to the rock-bottom prices offered at dollar stores.
And analyzing the cross-shopping patterns of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco shows that growing shares of visitors to the three behemoths also visit Dollar Tree on a regular basis. In Q2 2019, the share of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco who frequented Dollar Tree at least three times ranged between 9.8% and 13.7%. But by Q2 2024, that share rose to 16.7%-21.6%.
Dollar Tree is leaning into this increased interest among superstore shoppers. Over the past year, Dollar Tree added some 350 Dollar Tree locations, even as it shuttered nearly 400 Family Dollar stores. And the chain recently acquired the leases of some 170 99 Cents Only Stores – offering Dollar Tree access to a customer base accustomed to buying everything from groceries to household goods. As Dollar Tree continues to grow its footprint and expand its food offerings, the chain will be better positioned than ever to provide a real challenge to Walmart, Target, and Costco.
Still, the three retail giants each have unique offerings that distinguish them from dollar stores. This next section examines what sets Walmart, Target, and Costco apart – and how they can continue to strengthen their competitive edge.
With competition on the rise, Walmart, Target, and Costco must display agility in navigating an ever-evolving market landscape. This section dives into the data for each chain’s more successful metro areas to see what factors are helping them outperform nationwide averages – and what metrics the retailers can harness to try to replicate these results nationwide.
Target recently expanded its Target Circle Rewards program, rolling out three new tiers for its 100 million members. And this focus on loyalty has proven successful for the chain. Demographic and visitation data reveal a strong correlation between the median household incomes (HHIs) of Target locations’ captured markets across CBSAs (core-based statistical areas), and their share of loyal visitors in Q2 2024: CBSAs where Target locations’ captured markets had higher median HHIs also tended to draw more repeat monthly visitors.
Target’s captured markets in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, LA CBSA, for example, featured a median HHI of $89.8K in Q2 2024 – and 48.0% of the chain’s LA visitors frequented a Target at least twice a month during the quarter. Target stores in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI CBSA, where the chain’s captured markets had a median HHI of $88.7K in Q2 2024, also had a loyalty rate of 48.0%.
Target generally attracts a more affluent audience than Walmart. And even as the superstore slashes prices to attract more price-conscious consumers, the retailer is also taking steps likely to enhance its popularity among higher-income households. In April 2024, Target debuted a paid membership tier within its loyalty program offering perks like same-day delivery for a fee. Maintaining and expanding these premium offerings will be key for Target as it seeks to attract more affluent customers and replicate its high-performing results in CBSAs nationwide.
The persistent inflation of the past few years, while challenging for some retailers, has also created new opportunities – particularly for wholesalers. Membership warehouse clubs, including Costco, are gaining popularity among younger shoppers, a cohort often looking for new ways to stretch their more limited budgets. An October 2023 survey revealed that nearly 15% of respondents aged 18 to 24 and 17% of those aged 25 to 30 shop at Costco.
A closer look at some of Costco’s best-performing CBSAs for YoY visit-per-location growth highlights the significance of these younger shoppers: In H1 2024, the company’s YoY visit-per-location growth was strongest in areas with higher-than-average shares of young urban singles.
For example, the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA CBSA experienced visit-per-location growth of 10.4% YoY in H1 2024, while the nationwide average stood at 7.9%. And the CBSA’s share of Young Urban Singles, defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset as “singles starting their careers in trade and service jobs,” was 12.1%, well above Costco’s nationwide average of 7.3%.
Walmart is a one-stop shop for everything from affordable groceries to clothing to home furnishings, making it especially popular among families. The retailer actively courts this segment with baby offerings designed to meet the needs of both kids and parents, virtual offerings in the metaverse, and collectible toys.
And visitation data reveals a connection between the extent of different Walmart locations’ YoY visit growth and the share of households with children in their captured markets.
In H1 2024, nationwide visits to Walmart increased by 4.1% YoY, while the share of households with children in the chain’s overall captured market hovered just under the nationwide baseline. But in some CBSAs where Walmart outpaced this nationwide growth, the retail giant also proved especially adept at attracting parental households – outpacing relevant statewide baselines.
In Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA, for example, Walmart experienced 5.0% YoY visit growth in H1 2024 – while the share of households with children in the chain’s local captured market stood 7% above the Massachusetts state average. And in Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI, where Walmart’s share of parental households outpaced the Minnesota state average by an even wider 15% margin, the retailer saw impressive 7.3% YoY visit growth. This pattern repeated itself in other metro areas, suggesting that there may be a correlation between local Walmart locations’ visit growth and their relative ability to draw households with children.
Walmart can continue solidifying its market position by leaning into its family-oriented offerings and expanding its footprint in regions with growing populations of young families.
Walmart, Target, and Costco all experienced YoY visit growth in the final months of H1 2024, with Costco leading the way. And though the three chains still face considerable challenges, each one brings unique strengths to the table. By continuously innovating and responding to changing market conditions, Walmart, Target, and Costco can not only overcome obstacles but also leverage them to reinforce their market positions and drive continued growth.
The first Lollapalooza – a four-day music festival – took place in 1991. Chicago’s Grant Park became the event’s permanent home (at least in the United States) in 2005, drawing thousands of revelers and music fans to the park each year.
This year, the festival once again demonstrated its powerful impact on the city. On August 1st, 2024, visits to Grant Park surged by 1,313.2% relative to the YTD daily average, as crowds converged on the park to see Chappell Roan’s much-anticipated performance. And during the first three days of the event, the event drew significantly more foot traffic than in 2023 – with visits up 18.9% to 35.9% compared to the first three days of last year’s festival (August 3rd to 5th, 2023).
Lollapalooza led to a dramatic spike in visits to Grant Park – and it also attracted a different type of visitor compared to the rest of the year.
Analyzing Grant Park’s captured market with Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals that Lollapalooza attendees are more likely to belong to the “Young Professionals” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment groups than the typical Grant Park visitor.
By contrast, the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” segment group, comprising middle-class diverse families living in or near cities, made up only 6.5% of visitors during the festival, compared to 12.0% during the rest of the year.
Additionally, visitors during Lollapalooza came from areas with higher HHIs than both the nationwide baseline of $76.1K and the average for park visitors throughout the year. Understanding the demographic profile of visitors to the park during Lollapalooza can help planners and city officials tailor future events to these segment groups – or look for ways to make the festival accessible to a wider range of music lovers.
Lollapalooza’s impact on Chicago extended beyond the boundaries of Grant Park, with nearby hotels seeing remarkable surges in foot traffic. The Congress Plaza Hotel on South Michigan Avenue witnessed a staggering 249.1% rise in visits during the week of July 29, 2024, compared to the YTD visit average. And Travelodge on East Harrison Street saw an impressive 181.8% increase. These spikes reflect the festival’s draw not just for locals but for out-of-town visitors who fill hotels across the city.
The North Michigan Avenue retail corridor also enjoyed a significant increase in foot traffic during the festival, with visits on Thursday, August 1st 56.0% higher than the YTD Thursday visit average. On Friday, August 2nd, visits to the corridor were 55.7% higher than the Friday visit average. These numbers highlight Lollapalooza’s role in driving economic activity across Chicago, as festival-goers venture beyond the park to explore the city’s vibrant retail and hospitality offerings.
City parks often serve as community hubs, and Flushing Meadows Corona Park in Queens, NY, has been a major gathering point for New Yorkers. The park hosted one of New York’s most beloved summer concerts – Governors Ball – which moved from Governors Island to Flushing Meadows in 2023.
During the festival (June 9th -11th, 2024), musicians like Post Malone and The Killers drew massive crowds to the park, with visits soaring to the highest levels seen all year. On June 9th, the opening day of the festival, foot traffic in the park was up 214.8% compared to the YTD daily average, and at its height, on June 8th, the festival drew 392.7% more visits than the YTD average.
The park also hosted other big events this summer – a July 21st set by DMC helped boost visits to 185.1% above the YTD average. And the Hong Kong Dragon Boat Festival on August 3rd and 4th led to major visit boosts of 221.4% and 51.6%, respectively.
These events not only draw large crowds, but also highlight the park’s role as a space where cultural and civic life can find expression, flourish, and contribute to the health of local communities.
Analyzing changes in Flushing Meadows Corona Park’s trade area size offers insight into how far people are willing to travel for these events. During Governors Ball, for example, the park’s trade area ballooned to 254.5 square miles, showing the festival's wide appeal. On July 20th, by contrast, when the park hosted several local bands and DJs, the trade area was a much more modest 57.0 square miles.
Summer events drive community engagement, economic activity, and civic pride. Cities that invest in their parks and event hubs, fostering lively and inclusive spaces, can create lasting value for both residents and visitors, enriching the cultural and social life of urban areas.
For more data-driven civic stories, visit Placer.ai.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
This white paper delves into location analytics across six major hotel categories – Luxury Hotels, Upper Upscale Hotels, Upscale Hotels, Upper Midscale Hotels, Midscale Hotels, and Economy Hotels – to explore the current state of the American hospitality market. The report examines changes in guest behavior, personas, and characteristics and looks at factors driving current visitation trends.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
As mid-range hotels that still offer a broad range of amenities, Upper Midscale chains strike a balance between indulgence and affordability. And perhaps unsurprisingly, hotel operators have been investing in this tier: In Q4 2023, Upper Midscale Hotels had the highest project count of any tier in the U.S. hotel construction and renovation pipeline.
The shift in favor of Upper Midscale Hotels and away from Economy chains is also evident when analyzing changes in relative visit share among the six hotel categories.
Upper Midscale hotels have always been major players: In H1 2019 they drew 28.7% of overall hotel visits – the most of any tier. But by H1 2024, their share of visits increased to 31.2%. Upscale Hotels – the second-largest tier – also saw their visit share increase, from 24.8% to 26.1%.
Meanwhile, Economy, Midscale, and Upper Upscale Hotels saw drops in visit share – with Economy chains, unsurprisingly, seeing the biggest decline. Luxury Hotels, for their parts, held firmly onto their piece of the pie, drawing 2.8% of visits in H1 2024.
Who are the visitors fueling the Upper Midscale visit revival? This next section explores shifts in visitor demographics to four Upper Midscale chains that are outperforming pre-pandemic visit levels: Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, Fairfield by Marriott, and Hampton by Hilton.
Analyzing the captured markets* of the four chains with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Much of the Upper Midscale visit growth is being driven by chain expansion. But in some areas of the country, the average number of visits to individual hotel locations is also on the rise – highlighting especially robust growth potential.
Analyzing visits to existing Upper Midscale chains in four metropolitan areas with booming tourism industries – Salt Lake City, UT, Palm Bay, FL, San Diego, CA, and Richmond, VA – shows that these markets feature robust untapped demand.
Utah, for example, has emerged as a tourist hotspot in recent years – with millions of visitors flocking each year to local destinations like Salt Lake City to see the sights and take in the great outdoors. And Upper Midscale hotels in the region are reaping the benefits. In H1 2024, the overall number of visits to Upper Midscale chains in Salt Lake City was 69.4% higher than in H1 2019. Though some of this increase can be attributed to local chain expansion, the average number of visits to each individual Upper Midscale location in the area also rose by 12.5% over the same period.
Palm Bay, FL (the Space Coast) – another tourist favorite – is experiencing a similar trend. Between H1 2019 and H1 2024, overall visits to local Upper Midscale hotel chains grew by 36.4% – while the average number of visits per location increased a substantial 16.9%. Given this strong demand, it may come as no surprise that the area is undergoing a hotel construction boom. Upper Midscale hotels in other areas with flourishing tourism sectors, like San Diego, CA and Richmond, VA, are seeing similar trends, with increases in both overall visits and and in the average number of visits per location.
Though Economy chains have underperformed versus other categories in recent years, the tier does feature some bright spots. Some extended-stay brands in the Economy tier – hotels with perks and amenities that cater to the needs of longer-stay travelers – are succeeding despite category headwinds.
Choice Hotels’ portfolio, for example, includes WoodSpring Suites, an Economy chain offering affordable extended-stay accommodations in 35 states. In H1 2024, the chain drew 7.7% more visits than in the first half of 2019 – even as the wider Economy sector continued to languish. InTown Suites, another Economy extended stay chain, saw visits increase by 8.9% over the same period.
And location intelligence shows that the success of these two chains is likely being driven, in part, by their growing appeal to young, well-educated professionals. In H1 2019, households belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Young Professionals” segment made up 9.6% of WoodSpring Suites’ captured market. But by H1 2024, the share of this group jumped dramatically to 13.3%. At the same time, InTown Suites saw its share of Young Professionals increase from 12.0% to 13.4%.
Whether due to an affinity for prolonged “workcations” (so-called “bleisure” excursions) or an embrace of super-commuting, younger guests have emerged as key drivers of growth for the extended stay segment. And by offering low–cost accommodations that meet the needs of these travelers, Economy chains can continue to grow their share of the pie.
The hospitality industry recovery continues – led by Upper Midscale Hotels, which offer elevated experiences that don’t break the bank. But today’s market has room for other tiers as well. By keeping abreast of local visitation patterns and changing consumer profiles, hotels across chain scales can personalize the visitor experience and drive customer satisfaction.
