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Commercial real estate is constantly coming up with new and inventive concepts, and one of the latest ideas is the dog park bar. Chains such as Bark Social and Fetch Park are two such entrants that noted the rise in pet ownership during Covid, and are capitalizing on pet owners’ love for their dogs, as well as desire for human companionship and playdates for their canines.
These dog park bars combine the joy of seeing your furry friend run around with other dogs, while the owners can enjoy a cold frosty brew.
Fetch Park has five locations in Georgia, including Buckhead and Alpharetta. Meanwhile, Bark Social has locations in Baltimore, Bethesda, Alexandria, and Philadelphia, with upcoming plans for Los Angeles and Columbia.
Fetch Park includes events such as “Ales, Tails, and Trivia”, weekly karaoke nights, stand-up comedy, and even a singles’ mingle to meet other like-minded pooch people. Bark Social styles itself as a bar for dog lovers, and includes Bark Rangers that oversee puppy activities such as holding your pet’s first birthday party. There is even doggy daycare and summer camp available.
And in sunny LA, it’s not the San Vicente Bungalows or SoHo House that’s getting attention, it’s Dog PPL in Santa Monica, a private dog park whose $80/month membership lets your dog play in style. There are “ruffarrees” on hand to keep the calm while owners socialize and imbibe rosé or kombucha. It can even serve as a co-working location or gym substitute with its dog yoga classes.
Source: Dog PPL
If you’re in the Midwest, check out Barkside in Detroit. This 10,000 sq ft location in the West Village combines a dog park, bar, and beer garden all in one. There is a special focus on Detroit and Michigan brands when it comes to libations, which include beer, wine, spritzers, and a variety of coffee drinks.
And if you truly can’t part from your furry friend for even a minute, new BARK Air has partnered with a jet charter service and offers a Gulfstream V so you and your pet can travel in style. For the price of $6,000 one-way, amenities include dog champagne (aka chicken broth), special blankets and pillows, and delicious dog treats. This service is only available for NY, LA, and London jetsetters, but if this concept takes off and comes to more cities, that would truly be paw-some.
If there’s one sector of the retail industry that continues to innovate, evolve and perform at a high level, it’s convenience stores. Convenience chains remained in lock step with their consumers over the past few years, a difficult feat for many retailers, and benefited from suburban and rural migration patterns. 2023 was a banner year for C-Stores, with visits to large scale chains growing by 6% compared to 2022 (though some of the growth was due to chain consolidation).
C-Stores have done a fantastic job of attracting more visitors through additions like EV charging, local autonomous delivery, and expanded service offerings. However, the winning formula for many C-Store chains has been the bet on fresh, prepared and made to order foods. Chains have transformed consumer thinking around convenience driven foodservice and the concept has won over consumer’s appetites and wallets.
Chains that prioritize prepared foods have higher dwell times, more weekend visits and strong traffic growth according to our data. In a retail industry that prioritizes uniqueness in experience and product, more foodservice options clearly move the needle for visitors. Compared to the large chain C-store average dwell time of 10 minutes in Q1 2024, chains such as Buc-ee’s, Wawa, and Sheetz have higher dwell times by at least a minute, while chains associated with grab-and-go have shorter than average dwell times.
Looking a little more closely at Buc-ee’s, the darling of both the southeast and TikTok fame, the dwell time is double the average of large chain C-Stores. Buc-ee’s has the unique ability to blend entertainment, kitsch and prepared foods in a way that enchants visitors. Maybe it’s the chain’s Beaver Nuggets or the house-smoked barbeque, or its beloved mascot?
Buc-ee’s has the highest percentage of visits lasting 15 minutes or longer, and excels in visits between 15 and 45 minutes compared to other C-Store chains (below). More than half of the visits to Buc-ee’s occur between Friday-Sunday, more than any other competitor. Buc-ee’s can be seen as a destination C-Store as opposed to a daily stop due to the size and location of stores, which certainly contributes to the higher dwell time. Other C-Store chains looking to improve food offerings can use Buc-ee’s as a source of inspiration when it comes to breadth of assortment and mix of specialty packaged items and foodservice options.
The most surprising metrics come from Casey’s, a chain that has publicly committed to foodservice, but can’t seem to capture longer visits. Casey’s dwell time more closely mirrors that of grab-and-go chains like Maverik or Kwik Trip than it does Buc-ee’s or Wawa. Looking at the differences in demographic segments between Buc-ee’s, Wawa and Casey’s, Wawa and Buc-ee’s attract a visitor that is suburban, younger and more affluent than Casey’s. There may be a correlation between made to order offerings and suburban locations that’s benefitting chains focused on both.
The C-Store evolution is quickly blurring the lines between grocery, QSR and traditional convenience models, and is a bellwether of what’s to come across other sectors in retail. The bi-furcation of c-store formats is likely to accelerate throughout the remainder of 2024. Blending the right product selection, on-demand offerings and a beneficial experience for visitors is necessary in today’s retail climate.
Sprouts, the natural and organic food focused grocery chain operating in 23 states nationwide, is going through a growth spurt. We dove into the visit and audience data to see where the chain stands today and what the rest of 2024 – and beyond – may have in store.
Sprouts is on the rise. Year-over-year (YoY) visits increased every month of last year and have been outperforming the nationwide Grocery average since mid-2023. And the chain continued to grow in Q1 2024, with visits up an impressive 13.3% and 11.9% in February and March 2024, respectively – an impressive feat given the comparison to an already strong Q1 2023.
Some of the growth is driven by expansion – the company opened 30 new stores in 2023 and expects to add 35 additional locations in 2024. But the increase in foot traffic is also a testament to the potential of specialty grocery stores to leverage their unique product selection to attract grocery shoppers, even in the face of growing competition in the space.
The relatively high income of Sprout’s visitor base is likely also helping the chain stay ahead of the grocery pack: Median HHI in Sprout’s trade areas nationwide is higher than the U.S. median HHI, and the data shows a similar trend in Sprout’s eight growth markets.
The relative affluence of Sprouts shoppers means that this segment may not be as impacted by high food prices as other grocery shoppers – so the retail headwinds predicted this year are not likely to slow down Sprout’s growth potential as the chain continues expanding its reach in 2024.
While Sprouts’ visitors across states seem to share a relatively high income level, diving deeper into the location intelligence data reveals some major differences in both in-store behavior and overall market composition.
For example, the share of weekend (as opposed to weekday) visits to Sprouts in Q1 2024 varied significantly – from 31.3% in California to 36.6% in Virginia. Shoppers in the company’s various growth markets also visited stores at different hours throughout the day: Mornings (8:00 AM to 9:59 PM) were popular with California, Delaware, and Pennsylvania residents, while evenings were favored by Pennsylvanians, Floridians, and Texans.
Understanding the in-store behavior of shoppers in each state will likely help Sprouts adapt its operations and staffing schedules as the company continues expanding in these markets.
In addition to highlighting the variance between the shopping habits of Sprouts visitors across markets, diving deeper into the location intelligence data also reveals differences in the relationship between Sprouts shoppers and the wider grocery markets in each state.
The chart below shows the most popular grocery alternative for Sprouts shoppers in each state (which other grocery chain was the most visited by Sprouts visitors) and what share of Sprouts shoppers visited that grocery chain in Q1 2024.
In Florida, over 90% of Sprouts shoppers also visited a Publix location in Q1 2024 – indicating that Sprouts in the Sunshine State is operating in a relatively consolidated grocery market and operating against an established crowd favorite. Meanwhile, only 46.9% of Texan Sprouts visitors also visited a Kroger – the other grocery chain most visited by Sprouts visitors – indicating that the Texas grocery market may be more fragmented, and so may respond to a different expansion strategy, than the Florida grocery market.
Sprouts strong visitation trends indicate that the grocery chain is expanding into willing markets, and the brand’s relatively affluent shopper base means that Sprouts is unlikely to be too impacted by whatever economic headwinds may lie ahead. As the chain continues making its presence felt in newer markets, location intelligence suggests that Sprouts has plenty of room to grow in 2024 and beyond.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
Crocs’ rebrand from ugly to chic is one of retail’s most fascinating Cinderella stories (glass clog, anyone?). We dive into the latest location analytics and demographic data to explore the consumer behavior that drives Crocs’ continued success.
Embarking on a journey to become a fashionable brand, in 2017 Crocs inked a partnership with Christopher Kane who became the first designer to collaborate with the brand. A stampede of designer and celebrity-inspired styles followed in 2018 and 2019 including Balenciaga's iconic ten-inch platform Croc and Post Malone's take on the classic clog.
During the pandemic, Crocs built on its success in fashion and celebrity circles, and gained a new following from comfort-first shoe shoppers stuck at home or running errands.
Taking a wide lens on Crocs’ foot traffic since 2018 shows how a strategy of designer partnerships as well as recognition as a functional shoe drives visits to the brand. In 2018 and 2019, as designer Crocs rolled out, visits to the brand climbed to new heights.
And since the wider retail reopening in 2021, Crocs’ foot traffic growth has accelerated as comfort reigns supreme in and out of the home.
Compared to a Q1 2018 baseline, Crocs saw its largest monthly visit peak in Q3 2023 (199.1%) – the critical summer period. And foot traffic in the most recent Q1 2024 was 43.7% above the Q1 2018 baseline. This indicates that the shoe’s acceptance within pop-culture combined with demand for comfortable footwear is elevating the brand’s traffic to new levels.
As Crocs continues to gain traction, the company appears to be pursuing a real estate strategy aimed at repositioning the brand as an affordable shoe for the whole family. Although Crocs shrank its store count in the years leading up to the pandemic, the brand has now begun opening new locations in outlet malls – five in 2023, with plans for 30 new stores in outlet malls in 2024.
Analyzing Crocs’ trade areas between 2018 and 2023 suggests that this strategy is helping the brand reach its audience. According to the STI: Popstats 2023 dataset, in 2018, there was a gap of more than $6K between the median household income (HHI) in Crocs’ potential market ($81.0K/year) and in its captured market ($74.7K/year). But by 2023, the median HHI of the brand’s potential market ($75.5K) and captured market ($75.9K) had more closely aligned. This indicates that by opening stores in outlet malls – where consumers looking for discounts are likely to shop – Crocs’ potential market more closely reflects its actual visitors and the brand can drive additional traffic from its target audience.
From humble beginnings, Crocs have become runway-famous. And yet, the clogs are more popular than ever with the everyday consumer – at home or out on the town. How will Crocs shape the next chapter of this foam fairytale?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Final Four weekend capped off the NCAA “March Madness” basketball tournaments with a full schedule of fan experiences on both the men’s and women’s sides of the ball.
The Women’s Final Four took place between April 4th and 7th, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio with on-court action at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. “Tourney Town” – an interactive basketball exhibition – ran concurrently at the Huntington Convention Center.
The Men’s Final Four commenced on April 5th at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, culminating with the championship game on April 8th. The multi-day exhibition “Final Four Fan Fest” took place at the Phoenix Convention Center.
We dove into the location analytics and audience segmentation for visitors to several Final Four events to better understand the fans in attendance throughout the tournament weekend.
The men and women’s Final Four weekend attracted spectators from near and far, with each event attracting a unique mix of out of town tourists and locals.
Both men and women’s championship games attracted a relatively large share of out-of-town guests, likely due to the excitement surrounding a national title game. Analysis of visitors by home location revealed that the men and women’s championship games had the smallest share of visitors from less than 100 miles away – 29.8% and 33.3% respectively. In other words, these two events had the largest share of visitors that lived more than 100 miles from the venues.
The men’s open practice appeared to be more popular with long-distance travelers than the women’s, perhaps because all four men’s teams participated – as opposed to just two at the women’s open practice. The men’s practice was also followed by an all-star game which likely increased its appeal for visitors traveling from afar in the hopes of spotting their favorite players. The data revealed that more than half of the spectators traveled over 250 miles to watch the men’s practice, as opposed to under a quarter of spectators for the women’s practice.
Meanwhile, the women’s experiential exhibition at Huntington Convention Center drew more out-of-towners than the men’s exhibition at Phoenix Convention Center – only 23.3% of visitors to the women’s exhibition came from under 30 miles away, compared to almost half (48.3%) of the men’s exhibition visitors. The larger share of out-of-town visitors to the women’s exhibition may be because the event was close to the arena, making it a more convenient stop for non-local fans. On the other hand, the distance between the men’s exhibition in downtown Phoenix and the stadium in Glendale meant that the off-court experience was more out-of-the-way for tourists who had traveled specifically for the on-court action.
Analysis of Final Four visitors by income level provides further insight into the differences between each event’s fan base. According to the STI: Popstats dataset, the women’s events generally drew visitors from areas with a lower median household income (HHI) compared to the men’s events, although the gaps between the men and women’s visitor bases varied from event to event. Some of the difference in trade area HHI may be due to regional variance and the mix of locals and tourists at each event.
The visitor bases of the men and women’s championship games exhibited the widest disparity, with the men’s championship spectator base coming from areas with a median HHI of $99.9K, compared to $74.6K for the women’s championship’s trade area. The difference may be due to the relatively higher face value of tickets to the men’s championship game – even though the star-power of Iowa’s Caitlin Clark drove up the price of women’s tickets on the secondary market. In contrast, both the men’s and women’s practices and exhibitions were free or nearly free events and drove traffic from relatively lower-income areas – even though visitors to the men’s practice still came from more affluent areas than the trade area of the women’s championship match.
Visitors to the men and women’s convention center exhibition displayed the smallest income differences, with respective trade area median HHI of $80.0K and $76.6K. The data also reveals that visitors to the women’s exhibition came from a trade area with a median HHI that was higher than the median HHI for both the championship game and the open practice, perhaps because the exhibition drew a relatively large share of tourists who could afford to be in town for a slightly longer stay.
Further demographic analysis indicates that a greater share of singles – who tend to be on the younger side – attended the women’s Final Four events than the men’s. During the women’s championship, 41.0% of households in the trade area of the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse were made up of one-person households. This segment also made up 34.2% and 36.3% of the households in the trade areas of the venues for the women’s practice and exhibition, respectively. On the men’s side, singles comprised just 29.3% of the championship’s trade area, 28.4% of the practice’s, and 27.0% of the exhibition’s.
This reflects the growing popularity of women’s college basketball players on social media which is bringing more viewership to the sport.
Want more data-driven visitor insights for sporting events? Visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
During last week’s solar eclipse, people from all over the country converged on cities within the path of totality to witness the excitement first hand. And for municipalities and local businesses, the influx of tourists was expected to generate a boon.
But just how did the celestial event impact business activity on the ground? Which sectors benefited from the hype – and which geographic areas saw the biggest visit spikes?
We dove into the data to find out.
On April 8th, 2024, hotels in CBSAs where the eclipse could be viewed in all its glory (or close to it) experienced major visit boosts. And mapping hotel visits on the big day to CBSAs nationwide – compared to year-to-date daily averages – shows just how significant the cosmic alignment was for areas lucky enough to be located along or near the path of totality.
Within metropolitan CBSAs (CBSAs with at least 50,000 residents), Danville, IL – where visitors could either view a near-total eclipse or drive to a nearby location with 100% totality – experienced the biggest jump in Hotel visits, with visits to the category up 111.3%. But urban centers from north to south – including in New York, Indiana, Ohio, Arkansas, and Missouri – also experienced substantial hotel visit spikes.
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Hotels weren’t the only locations to reap the rewards of the solar eclipse. Fast Food & QSR chains in and around the path of totality enjoyed meaningful April 8th visit spikes of their own. And while the Hotel visit increases were more closely concentrated in prime viewing areas, Fast Food & QSR visits increased along a wider radius as people likely grabbed a bite to eat while making their way to a sun-gazing hotspot.
And the impact of the solar eclipse wasn’t limited to locations located in or near the path of totality. Retailers and dining chains nationwide got in on the action with special deals and limited-time offers meant to make the most of the unique interstellar opportunity.
In the week leading up to April 8th, 2024, Warby Parker drew crowds with the promise of free solar eclipse glasses. And while a burger joint may not be the first place people associate with eyewear, fast food favorite SONIC Drive In also attracted astronomy aficionados with a limited-time Blackout Slush Float that came with free eclipse viewing gear.
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, for its part, marked the occasion with a limited-edition Total Solar Eclipse Doughnut. And though Mondays aren’t typically busy days for the chain, the special offering produced a clear visit uptick nationwide. In states along the path of totality, Krispy Kreme visits were up 55.5% on April 8th when compared to an average Monday this year, and in the rest of the country they were up 33.9%.
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For retailers across categories, landmark events from movie launches to cosmic occurrences have the potential to drive visit spikes and generate business. What other big opportunities lie in store for retailers this year?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
