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Kohl’s has faced a challenging period marked by store closures, leadership instability and a 6.5% decline in comparable sales last year. So it may come as no surprise that the department store continued to see year-over-year (YoY) visit gaps in Q1 2025 – with YoY foot traffic down nearly every month since August 2024.
Still, Q1 2025 saw the department store’s YoY visit gap shrink to just 2.7%, with March experiencing a slight uptick in visits YoY. Kohl’s narrower Q1 visit gap may be a promising sign for the retailer, especially given the inclement weather that kept many consumers at home in February.
Sephora at Kohl’s also remains a bright spot, contributing to an 8.8% net sales increase in the department store’s Accessories category in 2024. And a regional snapshot of YoY visit trends shows that much of the western United States actually experienced a YoY visit increase in Q1 – a trend the company’s incoming CEO may wish to build upon.
What lies in store for Kohl’s in the months to come?
Follow Placer.ai's data driven retail analyses to find out.
The apparel landscape is constantly adapting to changing consumer preferences and behavior. And in Q1 2025, top sportswear and athleisure brands DICK’s Sporting Goods and lululemon athletica showed that partnering with star athletes and making bold statements at major competitions is one way to build success in the long term. What did location analytics reveal about this strategy? We dove into the data to find out.
Visits to DICK’s and lululemon declined in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, perhaps due in part to the continued emphasis on value-first apparel segments.
Still, diving deeper reveals several reasons for optimism. First, a closer look at YoY monthly visits reveals that February’s performance weighed heavily on the brands’ quarterly performance, as YoY visits dipped significantly due to the comparison to 2024’s leap year and inclement weather that kept many consumers at home. In January, March and April 2025, visits remained closer or even exceeded 2024 levels – more indicative of the brands’ overall performance.
Second, these visit gaps may have been partially offset by success through other channels: Both lululemon and DICK’s recently cited digital revenue gains and omnichannel growth, which could pave the way for other long-term growth opportunities in retail media.
And despite the slower quarter, DICK’s still demonstrated its ability to leverage partnerships and sporting events to drive in-store traffic.
Saturday is typically DICK’s busiest day of the week, and during all five Saturdays in March 2025, visits to DICK’s significantly outperformed the Q1 2025 Saturday average. This is likely due to DICK’s NCAA partnership and media investments during “March Madness”, which saw fans flock to DICK’s to stock up on college basketball gear leading up to and during The Big Dance. DICK’s also capitalized on its March Madness traction by launching a timely celebrity athlete campaign that may also have contributed to elevated Saturday traffic.
Lululemon has also adopted a bold strategy of star-athlete partnerships and high visibility at events to grow brand awareness.
At the WM Phoenix Open at the TPC Stadium Course in Scottsdale, AZ in February 2025, lululemon orchestrated an attention-grabbing crew of identically-dressed fans to accompany brand ambassador and pro-golfer Min Woo Lee. And at the BNP Paribas Open played in Indian Wells, CA, lululemon celebrated its professional tennis ambassadors Frances Tiafoe and Leylah Fernandez with an immersive installation on the tournament grounds and nearby lululemon store.
Diving into the psychographic characteristics of the regions from which lululemon and the two sports venues – TPC Stadium Course and Indian Wells Tennis Garden – receive visits reveals how making a statement during professional contests aligned with lululemon’s goal to grow brand awareness among its target audience.
Perhaps as would be expected, in 2024, lululemon’s potential trade area had more “Athleisure Enthusiasts” – Spatial.ai: FollowGraph segment for likely followers of lululemon and other athleisure brands on social media – than the nationwide average. However, the potential trade areas of Indian Well Tennis Garden and TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course had even higher concentrations of “Athleisure Enthusiasts”. This suggests that by investing in high visibility at these venues, lululemon was likely to build brand awareness among more of its potential visitor base.
Although visits to DICK’s and lululemon lagged in Q1 2025, there is still reason for optimism surrounding these brands. Seasonal sporting events like March Madness, in which DICK’s is an integral part, can play a role in driving traffic to stores. Meanwhile, lululemon appears to have found a formula to reach more of its target audience by making a statement at athletic events.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
Like many e-commerce retailers, Wayfair jumped on the brick-and-mortar bandwagon last year with a large-format flagship store at Edens Plaza in Wilmette, IL – giving customers a physical space to explore its products. To mark the store’s one year anniversary (it opened to great fanfare on May 23rd, 2024 – just a few days before Memorial Day), we dove into the data to examine the profile and behavior of its visitors – and see how they compare to the wider home furnishings space.
Location analytics show that Wayfair has emerged as a go-to furniture destination, drawing visitors from farther away than the industry standard. Wayfair’s large-format store also attracts an above-average share of weekend foot traffic, with most visits occurring on Saturdays and Sundays. During these peak times, customers can leisurely browse Wayfair’s extensive offerings, enjoy the onsite café, and take advantage of free design and home improvement consulting services. The store also attracts an affluent audience – from areas with a higher median HHI than either the nationwide baseline or the broader home furnishings segment.
Given Wayfair’s popularity – the Wilmette location has emerged as a major traffic driver to the mall – it may come as no surprise that plans are already in the works to open two more large-format Wayfair locations. How will the retailer continue to fare as it expands its footprint?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
Overall visits to Gap Banners declined 3.8% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with average visits per location falling 4.2%. The company’s performance appears to have been impacted by a particularly challenging February, when the absence of a leap year day and severe weather events led to a 10.2% drop in overall visits and an 11.0% decrease in average visits per venue compared to February 2024.
The company’s traffic was also somewhat weighed down by Banana Republic’s performance, which posted the largest year-over-year (YoY) declines of all Gap banners during the analyzed period. Meanwhile, the Athleta banner – which struggled somewhat in 2024 – returned to modest growth in Q1 2025, with overall visits up 0.4% and average visits per location up 1.1% YoY.
Gap’s performance improved significantly in April, with the Gap and Old Navy banners seeing YoY increases in both overall visits and average visits per venue. Old Navy in particular saw its overall traffic jump 10.2% and average visits per location increase by 9.1% compared to April 2024 – likely boosted by a tariff-driven pull-forward in consumer demand.
Average visits per venue also increased at Banana Republic and Athleta – although both banners saw minor YoY declines in overall traffic. The positive April data may indicate that the company is gaining traction and could suggest a more robust year ahead.
Ulta saw YoY declines of 3.7% in total visits and 7.1% in average visits per venue in Q1 2025, driven in part by difficult comparisons to a strong Q1 2024. Like Gap, the company’s February performance likely hurt its Q1 performance, with February traffic down 7.4% and average visits per venue down 10.7% compared to February 2024. But Ulta’s visit metrics improved in March 2025, with visits just 1.0% lower than in March 2024, and average visits per venue metrics narrowing to a 4.3% decline.
By April 2025, overall visits were up 0.4% YoY, and visits per venue down just 2.8% – suggesting that Ulta, like Gap, is now on a potential upward trajectory.
While Q1 2025 presented challenges for both Gap and Ulta, the rebound in April traffic offers a hopeful indication of strengthening consumer engagement. Will the companies maintain their momentum, or was the April rally the result of a temporary pull-forward of demand?
Keep up with The Anchor to find out.
In early May 2025, horse racing fans were treated to the 151st Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY, with thoroughbred Sovereignty coming out the winner. And while all eyes were on the horses, (and maybe the hats,) we dove into the location analytics and psychographic characteristics of visitors to find out who attends the Kentucky Derby.
Analysis of Churchill Downs’ captured trade area over the last twelve months reveals that the racetrack tends to drive traffic from an affluent visitor base. Between May 2024 and April 2025 the dominant trade area audience segment was “Ultra Wealthy Families” (13.2%) – the Spatial.ai: Personalive grouping for the nation’s wealthiest households. This share of this segment within the racetrack’s trade area was well above the nationwide benchmark, more so than any other leading segment.
But digging deeper reveals Churchill Downs’ trade area contained significant shares of several suburban and rural segments as well, highlighting the non-urban quality of the racetrack’s visitors. The presence of large shares of “Wealthy Suburban Families” (12.1%) and “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” (11.4%) segments reflects a significant affluent suburban audience, while above-average shares of the “Rural Average Income” (8.6%) and “Rural High Income” (7.4%) segments indicates robust visitation from rural households with a range of incomes.
But on Kentucky Derby raceday in 2025, Churchill Downs’ audience changed significantly. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” within the venue’s trade area jumped to 20.1%, indicating that the race drove traffic from an even more affluent audience than usual, likely due to the many celebrities and other affluent guests descending on the event. Meanwhile, the share of the “Young Professionals” segment – singles still in school or starting their careers in white-collar and technical jobs – also increased (from 6.0% to 10.3%), perhaps indicating that the Kentucky Derby succeeded in attracting younger urban audiences looking for recreation and a cultural experience.
Still, non-urbanized audience segments remained well-represented within the race’s trade area (only the share of “Rural Average Income” households slipped below the segment’s nationwide benchmark), indicating that the event maintained much of Churchill Down’s typical spectator base.
Analysis of the 2025 Kentucky Derby’s physical trade area, which reflects the regions from which Churchill Downs Racetrack received visitors on the day, provides further insight into the event’s attendees.
The map below shows that the event drew spectators from the country’s major metro areas – and from some of the wealthiest – including New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Miami. And some of these visitors may have come to Louisville for an extended stay – taking advantage of multiple Derby Week events and parties – contributing to a significant economic boost for the region.
Analyzing visitors’ area of origin also revealed robust visitation from Louisville and Lexington, KY, and both urban and non-urban areas in the East North Central region as a whole, as diverse local racing fans appeared to take advantage of their proximity to the most exciting two minutes in sports.
The Kentucky Derby is just the first event of thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, which continues with the fast approaching Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
What will audiences to these high-stakes races and other upcoming sporting events look like?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
In a year marked by shifting consumer habits and mounting challenges across the restaurant industry, Chili’s emerged as one of the breakout success stories of 2024 – and early signs suggest the momentum could continue into 2025.
Although many casual dining chains have struggled in recent years, Chili’s is standing out with strong year-over-year visitation growth, boosted by compelling value promotions, operational improvements, and a renewed focus on customer loyalty. The brand’s ability to balance affordability with innovation has resonated with price-conscious diners, helping it outperform both its casual dining peers and broader industry benchmarks. As economic uncertainty persists, Chili’s strategic approach may serve as a blueprint for how full-service restaurants can thrive in today’s competitive landscape.
According to our visitation data, Chili's share of the overall category has increased from approximately 6% to around 8%, a substantial jump. This growth is especially notable given that Chili’s U.S. restaurant count actually declined over the past year, from 1,230 locations in December 2023 to 1,209 as of December 2024.
Who is Chili’s taking visit share from? Essentially, everyone. Our data indicates that in Q1 2025, a meaningfully larger percentage of visitors from most leading quick-service and full-service chains also visited Chili’s, compared to Q1 2024. Admittedly, this increase in cross-visitation is partly because there are more Chili’s visitors than ever before – but the data also highlights Chili’s growing momentum, as the chain has succeeded in pulling traffic from both casual and quick-service competitors.
Chili's undeniably carved out a remarkable success story in 2024, and the compelling early 2025 data suggests the brand is strongly positioned to continue its impressive trajectory. The ability to significantly grow its market share and draw customers from a wide array of competitors speaks volumes about the effectiveness of its value promotions, operational improvements, and customer loyalty strategies.
Chili’s continues to demonstrate a potent combination of broad appeal and deepening customer engagement. While the full narrative of 2025 for the restaurant industry continues to unfold, Chili's appears to be on track to replicate its 2024 success and could very well solidify its status as the restaurant industry's standout performer for a second consecutive year.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
