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Using Placer's Return to Office report, we see that Miami continues to be the champion when it comes to returning to office. With a whopping 88% recovery rate, it is heads above the other cities, with NYC coming in at 73% for the month of June. Rounding out the top 5 recoveries are Southern cities like Atlanta (66%), Charlotte (64%), and Forth Worth (64%). These cities are all above the nationwide average for return-to-office, which is 63%.
By contrast, two of the major West Coast cities--San Francisco and Los Angeles lag below the nationwide return rate at 45% and 55%, respectively.
Other major cities in the Midwest, like Chicago and Detroit, are seeing similar rates of lagging return-to-office. In Chicago, 55% have returned compared to Jan 2020 and in Detroit, only 42%.
Moving over to the East Coast, Philadelphia and Washington DC--both at 57% RTO--are also below the nationwide average.
The good news for offices is that taken as a whole, we are seeing upward trends in employees returning to office, albeit perhaps slower than those in commercial real estate or the C-suite would like.
It’s often a good sign when Placer data reflects positive year-over-year growth and in the case of Bass Pro Shops, that’s exactly what we’re seeing for the months of June 2023-June 2024 (note April is down, but that is partially due to last year’s April having five weekends instead of four).
Bass Pro Shops skipped a slight beat immediately after COVID in spring 2020, but by early summer had already regained its store traffic as everyone took to the great outdoors in their quest for social distancing. Ever since, it’s been business as usual with similar peaks around Black Friday weekend and the week before Christmas.
Bass Pro Shop’s footprint is particularly strong in the eastern half of the US. They acquired Cabela’s a few years back and maintained the separate brands. This acquisition gave them an additional presence in the Pacific Northwest and Mountain states.
Both brands over index for the segments Blue Collar Suburbs, Upper Suburban Diverse Families, Suburban Boomers, and Wealthy Suburban Families per Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive. Small Town and Rural High Income also over index at Cabela’s.
RBI and Yum! Brands hold some of America’s favorite restaurants in their portfolios. How are these parent companies and their leading chains faring at the year’s midway point? We dove into the data to find out.
RBI shined in Q2 2024 – seeing a 1.7% increase in visits and a 2.2% increase in visits per location, YoY – due partly to expanding footprints across several of its brands.
Firehouse, Popeyes, and Tim Hortons’ growth likely played a part in overall visit gains to each chain during the quarter. And though Popeyes and Tim Hortons saw minor visit-per-location gaps emerge as the chains added new locations, the fact that this metric remained nearly on par with last year’s levels shows that the chains’ expansions are not diluting existing demand. Both Popeyes and Tim Hortons are likely to see YoY visits per location pick up as each of their new restaurants gains momentum.
Accounting for 69.3% of visits to RBI in Q2 2024, Burger King’s positive foot traffic during the period had a significant impact on its parent company’s success.
RBI management cited equipment upgrades, remodels and advertising as recent drivers of visit growth for Burger King – which despite the shuttering of dozens of underperforming restaurants over the past year, saw a 1.5% chain-wide YoY visit increase in Q2 2024.
And analyzing visit-per-location trends at Burger King shows that the chain’s rightsizing strategy is paying dividends: Since Q2 2023, YoY visits per location have been on a steady incline, closing out Q2 2024 with a 4.3% increase. This indicates that as individual Burger King locations have shut their doors, the remaining restaurants have gotten even busier.
Taco Bell, which accounted for 70.5% of visits to Yum! Brands' restaurants in Q2 2024, drove visits to Yum! in much the same way that Burger King gave a boost to RBI. During the quarter, visits to Taco Bell increased 5.0% YoY while visits per location rose 3.5%. And the taco chain propelled foot traffic growth for Yum! Brands as a whole – with YoY visits and visits per location up a respective 3.1% and 3.5% in Q2 2024.
Taco Bell is the leader in Yum! Brands’ portfolio for good reason. The chain is well-known as one of the world’s most innovative companies. And the taco leader appears to have done it again with “Taco Tuesday” specials. On the Tuesdays of March 26th, April 9th, and April 16th, 2024 the chain offered select menu-favorites for $1 for one hour. This promotion led into a separate $5 Dollar Taco Discovery Box deal, which was available on “Taco Tuesdays” between April 23rd and June 4th, 2024.
The data suggests that both of these promotions drove substantial foot traffic. Beginning on March 26th, Tuesday visits to Taco Bell rose significantly compared to the H1 2024 Tuesday average. And even after the promotions ended, “Taco Tuesdays” retained their draw – perhaps aided by the subsequent launch of a summer menu and the company’s formal entrance into the value meal wars with its much-vaunted Luxe Craving’s Box.
Led by their flagship restaurants, RBI and Yum! Brands appear to be on the right track. The strategic expansion of certain chains and the rightsizing of others has paid off in visit growth for RBI, while Yum! continues to strike it big with Taco Bell’s winning promotions.
For more dining updates, visit Placer.ai.
We dove into the latest data for java leaders Starbucks, Dutch Bros., and Dunkin’ – to discover how each brand drove visits in Q2 2024 and explore coffee consumer visit patterns heading into the summer.
Starbucks has been finding foot traffic success this summer with promotions that seem to be resonating with consumers. In May 2024, the chain launched 50% Off Fridays (beginning May 10th), special Monday Deal Drops (beginning May 13th), and limited-time only summer drinks. And in June, Starbucks’ promotions continued with a new Pairings Menu and a round of handcrafted iced beverages.
Since the week of May 6th, 2024, weekly traffic to Starbucks has been consistently elevated YoY – with visits up 2.3% YoY for Q2 2024 as a whole – indicating that Starbucks’ array of summer promotions are shoring up traffic to the chain.
Like Starbucks, Dutch Bros. ushered in the warm season with a special line-up of summer drinks in May 2024. But even before the launch of these seasonal promotions, the coffee powerhouse has been driving visits.
In Q2 2024, Dutch Bros.’ visits increased 15.0% YoY amidst ongoing fleet expansion. And throughout H1 2024, monthly visits-per-location increased YoY nearly across the board – surpassing the wider category average – indicating that Dutch Bros.’ growth is meeting robust demand.
In June 2024, Dutch Bros. saw 5.7% YoY visit-per-location growth, the chain’s largest increase of the year so far. With more planned expansions, an additional promotional drink release in July, and continued steps to advance mobile ordering and its rewards program, Dutch Bros. appears poised to drive growth in the back half of 2024 as well.
Though indisputably a coffee chain, Dunkin’ is still donut-obsessed and celebrates the doughy treat every year on National Donut Day (this year, June 7th). Among its many promotional events this summer, Dunkin’ treated customers to a free donut with the purchase of a beverage on the big day. And the milestone turned out to be Dunkin’s busiest day of the year so far – driving a 28.4% foot traffic increase compared to the daily year-to-date average (January 1st to July 20th, 2024).
Indeed, National Donut Day seems to have kickstarted Dunkin’s busy summer. Following several weeks of flagging YoY visit performance in May – likely attributable in part to the chain’s strong May 2023 performance – Dunkin’ saw a YoY visit boost of 4.5% during the week of June 3rd, 2024. And subsequent weeks have seen a continuation of this positive momentum, as the chain continues to promote its summer fare.
Starbucks, Dutch Bros., and Dunkin’ each do summer in their own way. But one thing all three chains have in common is an increase in evening visits during the summer months.
In Q3 2023, including the peak summer months of July and August, all three chains experienced significant upticks in evening visits (between 6:00 and 11:00 PM). During the winter months – Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 – the share of visits taking place in the evenings dropped for all three chains, before picking up again in Q2 2024.
A variety of factors may be behind this summer shift in coffee consumption. Consumers may be more likely to be out socializing during lazy summer evenings – when students are off and many Americans take vacation. Extended daylight hours in summer may also entice more consumers into an extra caffeine boost later in the day.
If last year’s Q3 evening coffee visit boost is any indication, Starbucks, Dunkin’, and Dutch Bros. may all be in for evening foot traffic increases as the summer wears on.
How will these coffee giants stay hot during the final stretch of summer and will they maintain their momentum going forward?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Summer is a time when many consumers are on the go – and vacationers moving between activities look to quick-service restaurants (QSR) and fast-casual chains to fill up and beat the heat.
We checked in with McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Wingstop, and Shake Shack to see how they are performing heading into the summer, and examined location analytics for McDonald’s latest concept – CosMc’s – to uncover emerging visitation trends for the new chain.
Popular wing and burger destinations Wingstop and Shake Shack are thriving this summer, as both chains double down on expansion plans. Shake Shack is on track to add dozens of new locations to its 300+ domestic shacks in 2024, and Wingstop’s hundreds of newly added locations bring its U.S. restaurant count to nearly 2000 venues.
These aggressive expansion strategies are playing a significant role in the chains’ respective visit growth. In June 2024, Wingstop’s visits were up 34.2% YoY, while Shake Shack’s were up 28.1%.
As the chains expand their footprints, both are taking steps to increase store efficiency and improve service. Wingstop recently adopted a new in-house transaction software, while Shack Shack continues to streamline the kiosk ordering experience.
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The experience at many eateries continues to change – as do the prices diners see on their menus. During the first months of 2024, inflation drove price increases across the QSR space. And as consumers took note of the higher prices, “the summer of value wars” got underway – with a long list of chains, including fast-food giants McDonald’s and Wendy’s, introducing low-cost meals and menus to reel in inflation-wary diners.
Despite price hikes felt by consumers, in Q2 2024, McDonald’s visits grew by 0.4% YoY and Wendy’s grew by 1.4%. And the late-June launch of McDonald’s and Wendy’s new limited-time $5 bundles – which are already making their impact felt on the ground – may drive further foot traffic growth for the two chains throughout the summer.
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While many fast-food diners are looking for value this summer, they’re also proving eager to try new culinary experiences. McDonald’s spin-off restaurant CosMc’s landed in late 2023, with throngs of eager diners lining up for a taste of the unique concept. Since the first location opened in Bolingbrook, IL, several new CosMc’s have emerged to heavy fanfare, including one in Watauga, TX and another in Dallas.
And although CosMc’s is still in its infancy, location analytics shows that the concept already drives traffic from more affluent consumers than the traditional McDonald’s chain.
In June 2024, for example, the median household income (HHI) in the captured market of the Bolingbrook, IL CosMc’s was $97.0K – significantly higher than that of McDonald’s in the Chicago metro area ($75.5K) or of McDonald’s nationwide ($65K).
A similar trend could be observed in the Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington CBSA – where the captured markets of local CosMc’s featured significantly higher median HHIs than those of McDonald’s.
As a beverage-led concept, CosMc’s may drive more traffic from higher-income consumers than a traditional McDonald’s – where simple soft drinks typically come as an inexpensive meal add-on. And as a result, the chain may help McDonald’s bring a new consumer cohort into the fold.
Summer 2024 is undoubtedly shaping up to be the “Summer of Value” and perhaps the “Summer of Fast Food” as well. Will favorable trends continue in the months ahead?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
The fast-casual space has been having a moment – with rising QSR prices leading many diners to embrace an upgraded experience. So with Q2 2024 in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with two fast-casual restaurant chains that have been doing particularly well: Chipotle and sweetgreen. How did their Q2 performance compare to that of the wider fast-casual segment? And what is it, exactly, that they are doing right?
We dove into the data to find out.
In the first quarter of 2024, Chipotle reported a 14.1% YoY increase in total revenue, and a 7.0% increase in comparable restaurant sales. And the chain isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. In Q2 2024, Chipotle saw YoY chain-wide foot traffic growth of 16.9%. And while some of this increase was undoubtedly due to the chain’s continued expansion – Chipotle added some 247 U.S. restaurants over the past year – the average number of visits to each of Chipotle’s restaurants also increased by an impressive 9.5%. By way of comparison, fast-casual restaurants experienced average quarterly YoY visit growth of just 4.2%, and visit-per-location growth of 2.9%.
One factor that appears to be contributing to Chipotle’s remarkable visit growth is its repeat customer base – which is growing more loyal with every passing year. Between Q2 2019 and Q2 2024, the share of visitors frequenting a Chipotle at least twice a month increased from 22.8% to 29.6%, while the share of visitors frequenting a Chipotle at least three times a month grew from 7.9% to 12.1%.
This rise in loyalty has taken place against the backdrop of Chipotle’s growing loyalty program – Chipotle Rewards – which launched in Q1 2019 and today boasts more than 40 million members. The program, which lets members earn points for every dollar spent, offers diners access to personalized deals and a range of special promotions – like free delivery on National Burrito Day. (Before you ask, foot traffic data shows that National Burrito Day, which fell on Thursday, April 4th, 2024 wasn’t just a day for ordering online: It was Chipotle’s busiest Thursday of the year so far, with visits up 19.7% compared to a regular Thursday). This April, Chipotle also partnered with Tekken 8 to offer diners in-game currency in exchange for orders – with special perks for Rewards members.
Another eatery that has been performing remarkably well in 2024 is sweetgreen – the fast-casual restaurant known for its healthy, fresh food. During Q2 2024, visits to sweetgreen were up a remarkable 19.9% YoY, a reflection of the chain’s growing footprint. But foot traffic data shows that there is more than enough demand to sustain sweetgreen’s accelerated expansion – over the analyzed period, the average number of visits to each sweetgreen location also increased by 5.9%.
A look at the hourly distribution of visits to sweetgreen shows that though the chain has made inroads into the dinner daypart, lunchtime remains its prime time to shine – especially on weekdays.
During the first half of 2024, 24.9% of weekday visits to sweetgreen took place between noon and 2:00 PM – compared to just 21.7% for the wider fast-casual category. But while sweetgreen, popular among the in-office crowd, drew a greater share of lunchtime visitors on weekdays, the fast-casual segment as a whole drew a greater share of lunchtime visitors on the weekends. Indeed, on Saturdays and Sundays, the share of lunchtime sweetgreen visitors dropped to 22.7%, while the share of fast-casual lunchtime visitors increased to 22.2%.
Still, suppertime is also a popular daypart for the salad chain on weekdays – with 20.0% of Monday - Friday visits taking place between 6:00 and 8:00 PM. As sweetgreen continues to lean into steaks and other dinner fare, it will be interesting to see if the restaurant begins to capture even more evening traffic.
Chipotle’s and sweetgreen’s strong quarter positions them well for further growth as the year wears on. Will Chipotle’s loyalty continue to increase? And will sweetgreen double down on dinner?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out.
During the pandemic and its aftermath, Americans were on the move. Millions left expensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt, while boomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with the influx of new residents.
That wave of relocation has since cooled, as return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage rates, and a shrinking affordability gap between coastal cities and many COVID-era hotspots have dampened the incentive to move. But even in a slower market, domestic migration remains one of the most powerful forces shaping local economies, housing markets, and consumer demand.
This report leverages AI-powered location analytics to examine the relocation patterns reshaping the United States in 2026 – where Americans are moving, the demographic and economic forces driving those decisions, and how retailers, investors, developers, and policymakers can respond to the opportunities and challenges created by these shifts.
Which major metros are attracting the most new residents? Which pandemic-era standouts have seen growth stall or reverse? And what factors best predict a large metro area's domestic migration growth potential in 2026?
The latest statewide migration data shows that the slower relocation pace observed in 2024 persisted into 2025. No state recorded net inflows or outflows exceeding 0.7% of its starting population. And while several smaller states continued to attract new residents at meaningful rates, none of the nation's six most populous states saw net in-migration exceed 0.2%.
Among those smaller states, South Carolina and Delaware led the nation with net in-migration equal to 0.7% of their populations, followed by Idaho (0.6%), Maine (0.5%), Tennessee (0.4%), and North Carolina (0.3%). For most of these states, migration accelerated relative to 2024, though Delaware's inflow rate moderated slightly and North Carolina held steady.
Despite their differences, these states tend to offer a similar mix of lifestyle amenities, relatively low congestion, and opportunities for growth. Many also benefit from business-friendly climates, favorable tax policies, or housing costs that remain attractive relative to the higher-cost markets from which they draw new residents.
At the other end of the spectrum was Vermont, which saw the nation’s largest net outflow as share of population in 2025, losing 0.4% of its population to domestic relocation. The decline deepens a reversal that first emerged in 2024, when the state swung to a net loss of 0.2%, after attracting inflows of 0.8% and 0.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Vermont's reversal likely reflects a combination of factors, including return-to-office mandates and the waning appeal of remote work. Housing undersupply in the state may have also contributed, illustrating how important infrastructure investments are to sustaining migration gains over time.
Among the nation's six most populous states, Florida was the only one to see accelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents equal to 0.2% of its starting population, up from 0.1% the year before. Texas, by contrast, slowed from 0.1% net in-migration in 2024 to essentially flat in 2025, highlighting the cooling of what was once one of the country's strongest pandemic-era migration magnets.
Meanwhile, the legacy "exodus" states continue to lose residents, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Illinois and California have seen their migration deficits steadily narrow, with further improvement in 2025. Between 2022 and 2025, Illinois moved from -0.8% → -0.2% → -0.2% → -0.1%, while California moved from -0.9% → -0.4% → -0.3% → -0.2%. And though New York has held steady at -0.2% over the past two years, this marks a significant moderation from 2022, when the state experienced net outmigration equal to 1.1% of its population.
Statewide trends reveal important shifts, but a closer look at the nation's ten largest metropolitan areas suggests that broader interstate averages increasingly mask diverging local realities. Several metros are attracting residents through interstate domestic migration even when their states as a whole are experiencing little or no net migration growth.
Phoenix (+0.3%), for example, stood out as the nation's top-performing large metro in 2025, despite Arizona's absence from the list of leading migration destinations – with the majority of its inflow coming from out of state.
Dallas (+0.2%) ranked second, continuing its rebound from -0.1% in 2023 even as Texas' statewide migration gains cooled. Like Phoenix, Dallas drew a majority of its new residents from outside the state, underscoring its growing appeal as a national migration destination. Houston, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, falling from 0.1% net in-migration in 2023 to -0.1% in 2025. While it is too early to call this a sustained reversal, the divergence between the two metros may reflect Dallas's growing pull as a corporate magnet alongside rising housing costs and weather-related challenges in Houston.
Metro-level data also suggests that the pandemic-era "big-city exodus" narrative is continuing to fade. Los Angeles improved from -0.8% in 2023 to -0.3% in 2025, while New York held steady at -0.3% after improving in 2024. Even Miami (-0.6%), which ranked last among major metros despite Florida's continued statewide gains, saw its outflows moderate from 2023 levels. And while Illinois continued to post net outmigration, Chicago (0.0%) reached migration neutrality in 2025 after recording losses in both 2023 and 2024.
Despite Miami's struggles – and Florida’s relatively modest 0.2% inflow – a look beyond the top 10 large metros reveals that the Sunshine State is home to six of the nation's eight fastest-growing large metros nationwide.
Those top-performing metros, defined as CBSAs with 500K+ residents that added at least 0.8% of their population through net domestic migration over the past year, share a similar profile: lower housing costs, retiree appeal, suburban density, and an easy drive to a larger economic hub.
Much of the growth of these Florida metro areas, however, is being fueled from within Florida itself. While major out-of-state metros such as New York (6.1%) and Chicago (2.0%) remained important sources of new residents, nearly half of the net migration into Florida's top destination metros came from elsewhere in the state. In 2025, Miami (22.5%), Orlando (13.0%), Tampa (5.8%), and Naples (4.2%) together accounted for 45.5% of the net positive migration feeding these fast-growing markets.
The migration flows feeding the nation’s fastest-growing large metros suggest that affordability remains a powerful driver of domestic relocation.
In 2025, seven of the eight top destination metros analyzed above had lower typical home values than their largest feeder markets. Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL, for example, had a typical home value of $313.4K in December 2024, compared with $404.9K in Orlando and $380.2K in Tampa – its two largest sources of net migration. Even North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL – the most expensive Florida metro in this group – drew its largest share of net migration from the New York metro area, where home values are substantially higher.
The lone exception was Charleston–North Charleston, SC, whose largest source of net migration was Baltimore – a market with lower typical home values than the destination. Even in Charleston, however, affordability appears to have played a role. New York, a significantly more expensive market, ranked a close second in 2025, accounting for 6.5% of net positive migration into Charleston, just behind Baltimore’s 6.8%.
While housing costs are only one factor influencing migration decisions, the data suggests that households continue to gravitate toward markets where homeownership is comparatively more attainable than in the places they leave behind.
Typical Home Values* in Top Feeder Markets to Destination Hubs, 2025
*Typical home value based on Zillow Research’s Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for Dec. 2024, immediately preceding the analyzed migration period (Jan.–Dec. 2025).
But as important as affordability is in explaining today’s domestic migration patterns, age appears to be an even stronger determinant of where people choose to relocate.
Among mid-sized and large metros (250K+ residents) experiencing significant population shifts – defined as gaining or losing at least 1.0% of their starting population through domestic migration over the past two years – households are increasingly moving toward older, more established communities.
The data reveals a clear negative relationship between migration performance and age differential – a metric calculated by subtracting the median age of the destination market from the weighted median age of its feeder markets. Negative values indicate movement toward older communities, while positive values indicate movement toward younger ones. In other words, the metros attracting the strongest migration inflows tend to be older than the markets sending them residents.
The data also shows a clear positive relationship between migration performance and retiree concentration. Metros with larger shares of residents aged 65 and older generally saw stronger migration gains over the past two years, while younger metros tended to attract fewer newcomers. This suggests that retiree-driven relocation has become an increasingly important driver of migration. At the same time, the influx of younger residents points to the broader appeal of these communities, which offer a mix of affordability, amenities, and lifestyle advantages.
Net Migration as Share of Starting Population, 2024–2025*
*Analysis includes metro areas with 250K+ residents and domestic migration gains or losses of at least 1.0% during the study period. Weighted Age Differential compares the destination market’s median age with the weighted median age of origin markets, with positive values indicating migration toward younger markets and negative values indicating migration toward older markets. Age data: Census ACS 2020–2024.
The pandemic-era urban exodus is giving way to a more nuanced migration landscape. Large urban markets are stabilizing, while growth is increasingly concentrated in smaller states, secondary metros, and intra-state corridors. Affordability remains a powerful pull, but retirees, lifestyle considerations, and local market dynamics are also playing an increasingly important role in where Americans choose to live.
To capitalize on these shifts in 2026, civic leaders, commercial real estate (CRE) investors, retailers, and developers should:
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
