.svg)
A common theme that spanned across the post-pandemic period of the retail industry has been resilience. Each time consumers throughout the United States faced adversity, they seemed to come back even stronger, often defying logic and expectations. Revenge spending often became the norm for many shoppers over the past six years, even as consumers accumulated mounting debts, utilized buy-now-pay-later services, and faced steep price increases due to tariffs and inflation. It has led to the question or if – or when – consumers might finally reach their breaking point.
The answer to that question might just be revealing itself to the retail industry in real time. In the face of rising prices across retail goods, services, and gasoline – particularly since the outbreak of the Iran War – consumers appear to be finally hitting the pause button on retail visitation in a stark way.
This coincides with another sobering statistic regarding consumer sentiment. According to the University of Michigan’s Monthly Survey of Consumers, which tracks consumer sentiment over time since the 1950’s, the May 2026 sentiment index fell to 44.8 – the lowest sentiment recorded since the inception of the survey. Consumers are feeling the pressure in all aspects of life, and their outlook is bleak on areas like the economy and their personal financial situations.
Despite the somewhat strong start to retail visitation in 2026, partially due to favorable comparable periods against early 2025, since mid-April there has been a noticeable change in retail traffic, both to discretionary and non-discretionary sectors. According to the same consumer sentiment index, April stood at 49.8, which was down 4 points from March.
While visitation to the Placer 100 Index, which includes 100 of largest retail chains across the U.S., and non-discretionary retail categories are still showing slight growth year-over-year, discretionary categories have declined. At the same time, it should be remembered that this period is being compared to last year’s pre-tariff rally among shoppers, which may also be impacting discretionary consumption.
Still, discretionary purchases are a logical place for the consumer to begin altering their consumption, especially for lower and middle-income shoppers who might be disproportionately impacted by rising fuel costs. Even with value-based options – like off-price retail – anything that is considered a “want” vs. a “need” are being reconsidered.
Waning consumer sentiment and increased economic uncertainty can both spur this change in behavior, and with sentiment at a record low, it’s clear that shoppers are trying to save instead of splurge right now.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
We recently attended the 2026 National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago, and the mood on the floor reflected an industry navigating a more complicated demand environment than it faced a year ago. With gas and grocery prices ticking higher over the past few months, consumers are once again tightening their belts and scrutinizing every dining decision, leaving operators to fight harder for share of stomach against a wider range of food retailers. Yet despite the headwinds, the show also surfaced plenty of bright spots: some chains are still driving traffic gains through new products, sharper value messaging, and operational improvements – from menu innovation to loyalty and tech-enabled efficiency – that are resonating with cautious diners. The takeaways below unpack where the pressure is greatest, who's breaking through anyway, and what it all signals for the back half of 2026.
Placer’s visitation trends reinforce this uncertain consumer environment. Below, we show weekly year-over-year visit trends for the QSR, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining categories. After a strong start to February – partly the result of lapping the macroeconomic uncertainty a year ago amid the initial tariff announcements – visitation trends for the QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments have generally fallen year-over-year (YoY) the past few months. Meanwhile, visits to fine dining restaurants have generally increased YoY, with affluent consumers feeling more confident about the macroeconomic environment given recent stock market highs.
Even as caution returned to the consumer, several chains showcased at and around the show stood out as clear traffic winners through Q1. In fast casual, CAVA continued to look like the category's runaway story, posting 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth driven by a striking 6.8% jump in guest traffic – outpacing peers including Chipotle, which has been working through a "Recipe for Growth" turnaround after stretches of negative comps.
In the burger and Mexican QSR space, Burger King delivered a 5.8% U.S. comp gain in Q1 – its biggest lift in years – fueled by family-friendly SpongeBob and Mandalorian tie-ins, while Taco Bell once again served as Yum! Brands' growth engine, leveraging sharp value pricing, steady menu innovation, and a deep digital loyalty program to broaden its appeal across income cohorts.
Coffee was also a frequent topic of conversation at the 2026 NRA Show. Dutch Bros has now strung together five-plus quarters of traffic-led same-store sales gains and is rolling out hot breakfast nationwide. Meanwhile, 7 Brew has emerged as the segment's hottest growth story – posting eye-popping traffic gains and on pace to add more than 400 units in 2026 alone – even as Starbucks continues to navigate a turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol.
Regional QSR burger favorites are pressing their advantage as well. In-N-Out is pushing into Tennessee, Washington, and other new markets, Whataburger continues to extend its footprint outside the Southeast, and Culver's is rolling out a series of menu, technology, and experience updates aimed at sustaining the cult-like loyalty that has long set these regional players apart. In fact, Culver’s might be the story of the QSR category right now, posting same-store visits that ranked among the upper echelon of QSR chains during the first quarter.
One of the most persistent themes at this year's show was that restaurants are no longer just competing with each other for share of stomach. Grocery stores, convenience chains, and warehouse clubs are rapidly upgrading their prepared food offerings, and in many cases capturing everyday meal occasions that restaurants once owned.
Grocery retailers are expanding prepared foods and meals-on-the-go and positioning them as a more affordable alternative to both home cooking and a drive-thru run, while c-stores like 7-Eleven, QuikTrip, and Wawa have invested heavily in made-to-order menus, full kitchens, and even branded QSR partnerships that increasingly rival traditional fast food. Warehouse clubs are pushing in the same direction – Sam's Club, for example, is rolling out fresh, ready-to-serve meals – leaving restaurant operators to defend their turf against a much broader, and noticeably hungrier, retail food ecosystem. YoY visit trends for the QSR category have underperformed other food-at-home categories like grocery stores and superstores over the past twelve months, underscoring this meaningful channel shift.
Taken together, the 2026 show painted a picture of an industry at an inflection point. The tailwinds of pent-up post-pandemic demand have given way to a more discerning consumer, a wider competitive set, and thinner margins for error. The chains that are winning share are doing so with a clear playbook: relevant menu innovation, disciplined value, sticky loyalty, and operational investments that make the experience faster and easier.
As we head into the back half of 2026, the gap between the operators executing on those fundamentals and those still searching for an answer is likely to widen further. The pressure on the industry is real, but so is the opportunity – and the brands willing to keep adapting to where the consumer is actually headed should remain well-positioned to come out ahead.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie dominated the 2026 box office and drove a massive spike in theater visits – but the real story goes beyond ticket sales.
Location analytics as well as audience survey data from The People's Platform reveal how the blockbuster reshaped who went to the movies, how they spent their time, and where they spent their money afterward. Families with children made up a larger share of theater audiences, with theater trade areas reflecting broader economic diversity than any Q1 2026 release. The film also fueled a surge in morning matinee attendance and contributed to shorter average theater dwell times thanks to its family-friendly runtime. And during the first two weeks of the movie's release, the data shows an increase in post-movie theater QSR visitation as families extended the outing beyond the screening itself.
For the full analysis, read the article here.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Iran conflict and resulting supply disruptions pushed average U.S. gas prices from $2.80 per gallon in early January to $4.49 by mid-May – a nearly 60% increase. And while consumers initially appeared willing to absorb higher fuel costs, recent traffic patterns suggest that sustained pressure at the pump may finally be impacting behavior.
When gas prices initially began rising in early March 2026, both retail and fuel demand remained relatively resilient. As the chart below shows, discretionary retail and gas station visits hovered near or above prior-year levels – indicating that consumers were largely maintaining their shopping and driving habits. Meanwhile, non-discretionary retail traffic continued to post modest year-over-year (YoY) gains, perhaps a product of ongoing macroeconomic instability and the overall strength of essentials-based retail.
The Easter calendar shift – with the holiday falling on April 20th in 2025 and April 5th in 2026 – even provided a temporary lift across all three categories, which may have masked some of the early effects of rising fuel prices. Non-discretionary retail saw the strongest Easter impact – visits rose 10.0% YoY during the week of March 30th, 2026 – as consumers prepared for holiday gatherings. Easter-related travel also appears to have supported gas station visits, which increased 1.3% and 2.2% YoY the weeks of March 30th and April 6th, respectively. Discretionary retail benefited from the calendar shift as well, with visits increasing 5.0% YoY the week of April 6th, and 5.8% YoY the week of April 13th – likely driven by a combination of post-Easter promotions and spring break travel.
Following a temporary Easter-related lift, location intelligence suggests that consumer behavior reached an inflection point in mid-April. The week of April 13th marked both the second consecutive week in which average gas prices exceeded $4.00 per gallon and the first week since the start of the supply disruption that gas station visits fell below year-ago levels. Since then, gas stations have experienced persistent YoY visitation declines, suggesting that consumers may be driving less or holding out between fill-ups.
Beginning the week of April 20th, discretionary retail traffic also slipped below prior-year levels – pointing to a potential pullback in non-essential shopping trips. Non-discretionary retail proved more resilient, remaining near or above the previous year’s levels from that week onward (a brief YoY visit gap the week of April 13th was likely due to the Easter calendar shift). And yet, even visits to essentials-based categories dipped below prior-year levels the week of May 18th, indicating that consumers may be shopping more deliberately or consolidating trips as transportation costs rise.
While consumers initially appeared willing to absorb higher fuel costs, recent foot traffic trends suggest that prolonged high prices at the pump have influenced fill-up and retail behavior across the board. However, if consumers continue to see some relief, that pressure could ease in the weeks ahead.
Want to stay informed on the latest consumer behavior trends? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Consumers aren’t shying away from testing out new hobbies, despite economic headwinds and changes in sentiment. Perhaps, it is actually a response to those factors that have consumers rushing to embrace new activities or socializing with others. Hobbies can act as a small indulgence for shoppers looking for ways to treat themselves at retail without a larger financial investment.
Typically small indulgences are often associated with categories like beauty or coffee chains, but hobby related retail traffic is also on the rise in areas like craft, books and paper. Consumers looking for activities and third places outside of their homes and offices to socialize have boosted games like Mahjong over the past year, which have prompted retailers to follow the trends and increase assortments that speak to these new interests.
Hobby related retailers have been steadily growing visits over the past year, particularly in the book and craft spaces.
Crafting activities like junk journaling, scrapbooking, needlepoint, and diamond art are all trending, leading to increased interest for chains like Michaels and Hobby Lobby to capture. Crafting retail has consolidated over the past few years with the loss of JOANN, but the demand has shifted to the remaining retailers.
The book category was a leader in 2025, and that momentum hasn’t slowed in 2026. The rise in book clubs as a socialization method has boosted the book industry as a hobby adjacent category. Barnes & Noble also has embraced retail as a third place through community events like storytimes and author events, as well as its cafe. Hobbies can be a catalyst for consumers to check out these retailers, but each of these chains has created reasons for shoppers to return frequently.
The paper category is one that hasn’t seen the same meteoric rise as crafts or books, but it is on the rebound. Paper Source has taken a few pages from its sister-brand Barnes & Noble on diversifying its assortment through areas like gifting and crafting. As consumers grapple with an increasingly digital existence, there does seem to still be a growing affinity for analogue activities and communication including invitations and thank-you notes. Retailers like Paper Source represent how small indulgences can show up for consumers in 2026; even with a smaller price tag, finding joy at retail is unmatched.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Just a few months after Allbirds announced it was pivoting to AI, another DTC darling has taken an unexpected turn. Everlane – the upscale, "radical transparency" sustainability brand – has just been bought by ultra-low-price fast-fashion giant Shein for a reported $100 million.
Much of the coverage has framed the deal as Shein buying a sustainability halo to shore up its credibility in the American market. But location analytics point to a more tangible, often overlooked, asset – direct access, through Everlane's brick-and-mortar footprint, to the high-income, urban consumers Shein has long coveted.
Everlane’s stores are concentrated in affluent neighborhoods. Over the past twelve months, the brand’s potential market posted a median household income (HHI) of $127.7K – 46.3% above the nationwide baseline and a full $39.5K higher than the broader traditional apparel segment.
But even within these wealthy trade areas, Everlane disproportionately attracts the highest-income consumers. During the analyzed period, its captured market registered a median HHI of $142.3K – 11.5% above the brand’s already-affluent trade area. Other traditional apparel chains, by contrast, tend to attract audiences that more closely mirror the demographics of their surrounding markets.
For Shein, the striking gap between Everlane’s captured and potential markets is a signal of the brand’s durable equity: Despite its recent struggles, Everlane still demonstrates a powerful ability to attract highly desirable consumers beyond what would be expected from its physical footprint alone.
Everlane's audience also lines up neatly with the hip, urban demographic Shein has been trying to reach. "Educated Urbanites" – young, well-educated singles in dense urban areas working relatively high-paying jobs – account for a remarkable 40.8% of Everlane's captured market, against just 3.6% nationwide. The brand also over-indexes on "Ultra Wealthy Families," at 18.4% of its captured audience versus a traditional apparel benchmark of 8.7%.
That profile mirrors the consumer Shein has pursued through temporary pop-ups – including in luxury malls – across major U.S. cities.
The sustainability narrative may dominate the headlines, but the strategic logic behind Shein’s Everlane acquisition also runs through the customer base itself.
For Shein, Everlane represents a shortcut into a consumer segment it has sought to penetrate more effectively: affluent, urban, brand-conscious shoppers who still value trend relevance. And for Everlane, that same demographic strength helped transform a distressed sale into a strategic acquisition target – while giving Shein a strong incentive to preserve the brand’s positioning going forward.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
During the pandemic and its aftermath, Americans were on the move. Millions left expensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt, while boomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with the influx of new residents.
That wave of relocation has since cooled, as return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage rates, and a shrinking affordability gap between coastal cities and many COVID-era hotspots have dampened the incentive to move. But even in a slower market, domestic migration remains one of the most powerful forces shaping local economies, housing markets, and consumer demand.
This report leverages AI-powered location analytics to examine the relocation patterns reshaping the United States in 2026 – where Americans are moving, the demographic and economic forces driving those decisions, and how retailers, investors, developers, and policymakers can respond to the opportunities and challenges created by these shifts.
Which major metros are attracting the most new residents? Which pandemic-era standouts have seen growth stall or reverse? And what factors best predict a large metro area's domestic migration growth potential in 2026?
The latest statewide migration data shows that the slower relocation pace observed in 2024 persisted into 2025. No state recorded net inflows or outflows exceeding 0.7% of its starting population. And while several smaller states continued to attract new residents at meaningful rates, none of the nation's six most populous states saw net in-migration exceed 0.2%.
Among those smaller states, South Carolina and Delaware led the nation with net in-migration equal to 0.7% of their populations, followed by Idaho (0.6%), Maine (0.5%), Tennessee (0.4%), and North Carolina (0.3%). For most of these states, migration accelerated relative to 2024, though Delaware's inflow rate moderated slightly and North Carolina held steady.
Despite their differences, these states tend to offer a similar mix of lifestyle amenities, relatively low congestion, and opportunities for growth. Many also benefit from business-friendly climates, favorable tax policies, or housing costs that remain attractive relative to the higher-cost markets from which they draw new residents.
At the other end of the spectrum was Vermont, which saw the nation’s largest net outflow as share of population in 2025, losing 0.4% of its population to domestic relocation. The decline deepens a reversal that first emerged in 2024, when the state swung to a net loss of 0.2%, after attracting inflows of 0.8% and 0.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Vermont's reversal likely reflects a combination of factors, including return-to-office mandates and the waning appeal of remote work. Housing undersupply in the state may have also contributed, illustrating how important infrastructure investments are to sustaining migration gains over time.
Among the nation's six most populous states, Florida was the only one to see accelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents equal to 0.2% of its starting population, up from 0.1% the year before. Texas, by contrast, slowed from 0.1% net in-migration in 2024 to essentially flat in 2025, highlighting the cooling of what was once one of the country's strongest pandemic-era migration magnets.
Meanwhile, the legacy "exodus" states continue to lose residents, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Illinois and California have seen their migration deficits steadily narrow, with further improvement in 2025. Between 2022 and 2025, Illinois moved from -0.8% → -0.2% → -0.2% → -0.1%, while California moved from -0.9% → -0.4% → -0.3% → -0.2%. And though New York has held steady at -0.2% over the past two years, this marks a significant moderation from 2022, when the state experienced net outmigration equal to 1.1% of its population.
Statewide trends reveal important shifts, but a closer look at the nation's ten largest metropolitan areas suggests that broader interstate averages increasingly mask diverging local realities. Several metros are attracting residents through interstate domestic migration even when their states as a whole are experiencing little or no net migration growth.
Phoenix (+0.3%), for example, stood out as the nation's top-performing large metro in 2025, despite Arizona's absence from the list of leading migration destinations – with the majority of its inflow coming from out of state.
Dallas (+0.2%) ranked second, continuing its rebound from -0.1% in 2023 even as Texas' statewide migration gains cooled. Like Phoenix, Dallas drew a majority of its new residents from outside the state, underscoring its growing appeal as a national migration destination. Houston, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, falling from 0.1% net in-migration in 2023 to -0.1% in 2025. While it is too early to call this a sustained reversal, the divergence between the two metros may reflect Dallas's growing pull as a corporate magnet alongside rising housing costs and weather-related challenges in Houston.
Metro-level data also suggests that the pandemic-era "big-city exodus" narrative is continuing to fade. Los Angeles improved from -0.8% in 2023 to -0.3% in 2025, while New York held steady at -0.3% after improving in 2024. Even Miami (-0.6%), which ranked last among major metros despite Florida's continued statewide gains, saw its outflows moderate from 2023 levels. And while Illinois continued to post net outmigration, Chicago (0.0%) reached migration neutrality in 2025 after recording losses in both 2023 and 2024.
Despite Miami's struggles – and Florida’s relatively modest 0.2% inflow – a look beyond the top 10 large metros reveals that the Sunshine State is home to six of the nation's eight fastest-growing large metros nationwide.
Those top-performing metros, defined as CBSAs with 500K+ residents that added at least 0.8% of their population through net domestic migration over the past year, share a similar profile: lower housing costs, retiree appeal, suburban density, and an easy drive to a larger economic hub.
Much of the growth of these Florida metro areas, however, is being fueled from within Florida itself. While major out-of-state metros such as New York (6.1%) and Chicago (2.0%) remained important sources of new residents, nearly half of the net migration into Florida's top destination metros came from elsewhere in the state. In 2025, Miami (22.5%), Orlando (13.0%), Tampa (5.8%), and Naples (4.2%) together accounted for 45.5% of the net positive migration feeding these fast-growing markets.
The migration flows feeding the nation’s fastest-growing large metros suggest that affordability remains a powerful driver of domestic relocation.
In 2025, seven of the eight top destination metros analyzed above had lower typical home values than their largest feeder markets. Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL, for example, had a typical home value of $313.4K in December 2024, compared with $404.9K in Orlando and $380.2K in Tampa – its two largest sources of net migration. Even North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL – the most expensive Florida metro in this group – drew its largest share of net migration from the New York metro area, where home values are substantially higher.
The lone exception was Charleston–North Charleston, SC, whose largest source of net migration was Baltimore – a market with lower typical home values than the destination. Even in Charleston, however, affordability appears to have played a role. New York, a significantly more expensive market, ranked a close second in 2025, accounting for 6.5% of net positive migration into Charleston, just behind Baltimore’s 6.8%.
While housing costs are only one factor influencing migration decisions, the data suggests that households continue to gravitate toward markets where homeownership is comparatively more attainable than in the places they leave behind.
Typical Home Values* in Top Feeder Markets to Destination Hubs, 2025
*Typical home value based on Zillow Research’s Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for Dec. 2024, immediately preceding the analyzed migration period (Jan.–Dec. 2025).
But as important as affordability is in explaining today’s domestic migration patterns, age appears to be an even stronger determinant of where people choose to relocate.
Among mid-sized and large metros (250K+ residents) experiencing significant population shifts – defined as gaining or losing at least 1.0% of their starting population through domestic migration over the past two years – households are increasingly moving toward older, more established communities.
The data reveals a clear negative relationship between migration performance and age differential – a metric calculated by subtracting the median age of the destination market from the weighted median age of its feeder markets. Negative values indicate movement toward older communities, while positive values indicate movement toward younger ones. In other words, the metros attracting the strongest migration inflows tend to be older than the markets sending them residents.
The data also shows a clear positive relationship between migration performance and retiree concentration. Metros with larger shares of residents aged 65 and older generally saw stronger migration gains over the past two years, while younger metros tended to attract fewer newcomers. This suggests that retiree-driven relocation has become an increasingly important driver of migration. At the same time, the influx of younger residents points to the broader appeal of these communities, which offer a mix of affordability, amenities, and lifestyle advantages.
Net Migration as Share of Starting Population, 2024–2025*
*Analysis includes metro areas with 250K+ residents and domestic migration gains or losses of at least 1.0% during the study period. Weighted Age Differential compares the destination market’s median age with the weighted median age of origin markets, with positive values indicating migration toward younger markets and negative values indicating migration toward older markets. Age data: Census ACS 2020–2024.
The pandemic-era urban exodus is giving way to a more nuanced migration landscape. Large urban markets are stabilizing, while growth is increasingly concentrated in smaller states, secondary metros, and intra-state corridors. Affordability remains a powerful pull, but retirees, lifestyle considerations, and local market dynamics are also playing an increasingly important role in where Americans choose to live.
To capitalize on these shifts in 2026, civic leaders, commercial real estate (CRE) investors, retailers, and developers should:
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
