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Nike has recently pivoted away from its "Consumer Direct Acceleration" strategy in favor of a more multi-channel distribution approach. What does the data say about this shift? We dove into traffic numbers and audience composition metrics to find out.
In 2020, Nike introduced its "Consumer Direct Acceleration" strategy that had aimed to expedite the company's DTC pivot in an effort to regain control of the brand and own the customer relationship directly. But the emphasis on owned channels did not yield the desired results – in fact, the move away from wholesale may have helped smaller sneaker companies take over shelf space and market share from the legacy sportswear brand.
In mid-2023, Nike shifted to a more balanced, multi-channel approach, and by late 2023, Nike was once again selling its products through retail partners such as DSW and Macy's. More recently, in May 2025, Nike announced that it would be resuming direct sales on Amazon – a channel the brand exited in 2019 – in an effort to reach customers where they shop.
Diving into year-over-year monthly traffic numbers for Nike stores nationwide underscores the merits of the recent strategic shift. Visits to Nike stores have been trending negative for eight months straight, validating the recent company-wide pivot back towards a more holistic, multi-channel approach.
Using Spatial.ai PersonaLive data to compare the audience composition in Nike's captured market with the audience composition in some captured markets of some of its largest retail partners further highlights the advantages of Nike's new multi-channel approach.
The data shows that Nike already does a great job of reaching "Ultra Wealthy Families," "Young Professionals," and "Educated Urbanites" through its owned stores – the share of these segments in Nike's trade area is larger than in the trade areas of any of its main partners. But both DSW and DICK's Sporting Goods reach more suburban families than Nike, with a larger share of "Wealthy Suburban Families" and "Upper Suburban Diverse Families" in their trade areas than in Nike's. And Macy's and Foot Locker seem to be better positioned to reach "Near-Urban Diverse Families" and "Young Urban Singles".
The distinct audience composition of each retail partner suggests that a varied wholesale approach is necessary to achieve comprehensive market coverage, allowing Nike to reach a far broader spectrum of consumers than its own stores can capture alone.
Nike's return to a multi-channel approach suggests that achieving comprehensive market coverage requires a balanced strategy, leveraging partners to engage with a broader spectrum of consumers in addition to building out owned DTC channels.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
In today’s challenging dining market, restaurants are battling for consumer attention through special deals, limited time offers (LTOs), and pop-culture collaborations. We dove into the data to see how several special recent events at Chipotle, IHOP, and Jack in the Box helped drive visits to these chains.
Earlier this year, Chipotle leaned into the Stanley Cup excitement with an LTO designed especially for hockey fans. On Monday, April 21st, 2025 – just two days after the start of Round 1 playoffs – Chipotle offered one of its classic BOGO (buy one get one free) deals for anyone wearing a hockey jersey who dined at a participating location after 3:00 PM.
Nationwide, the promotion sparked a substantial 34.4% visit boost during the hours of the offer compared to an average Monday. But in Minneapolis-St. Paul, at the heart of the so-called “State of Hockey”, visits surged by an astonishing 77.3% – the most seen in any metro area throughout the U.S. – underscoring just how impactful relevant LTOs can be in the right market.
It’s no secret that everybody loves free stuff. But another recent LTO shows that people also embrace the chance to do good. On March 4th, 2025, hungry diners flocked to IHOP restaurants nationwide to snag free pancakes – no purchase required! – at participating locations. The promotion, part of the chain’s month-long charitable drive, encouraged guests to donate to Feeding America.
IHOP’s promotion spurred visit increases across the country. But it struck a particular chord in certain northeastern markets – especially in New Jersey, where a local franchise owner’s interviews about the event’s charitable aspect helped motivate a remarkable 142.5% visit spike. And on the West Coast, particularly in California, the promotion’s success was supported by the chain’s “20k for Pancake Day” event in Santa Monica, held on March 1, 2025 to raise money for Feeding America, which garnered substantial media coverage.
But freebies aren’t the only way to drive traffic. On May 29th, 2025, Jack in the Box created plenty of buzz with the launch of its late-night T-Pain Munchie Meal, available after 9:00 PM. By the week of June 2nd, hungry night owls were flocking to Jack in the Box in droves, driving substantial increases in late-night traffic.
The late-night offer increased the proportion of nighttime visits to 25.1% during the week of June 2nd, compared to a 12-month average of 23.0%. The largest nighttime visit increase came on Thursday, June 5th, likely due to excitement for T-Pain’s June 6 debut in “Jack Zone Wars,” a custom in-game Fortnite world built specifically for this collaboration. And with T-Pain’s June 26th live-stream Fortnite event still ahead, momentum will likely continue to build as the month wears on.
These recent promotions at Chipotle, IHOP, and Jack in the Box highlight the power of well-timed, relevant LTOs to create excitement and boost traffic. By tapping into local cultural trends, charitable causes, and pop-culture collaborations, restaurants can stay top of mind – even in a crowded dining market.
For more data-driven dining insights follow The Anchor.
Since its emergence from bankruptcy in late 2020, JCPenney has been on a slow and steady comeback trajectory. Last year, the company continued closing underperforming stores and revamped its loyalty program, which helped it achieve a year-over-year (YoY) visit gap of just 3.0% and a YoY gap in average visits per location of just 1.8% in Q4 2024.
Part of last year's success was likely also due to the company's investments in major promotional efforts – and now JCPenney is back in the advertising game with its new "Yes, JCPenney" national ad campaign. We dove into the data to see how these marketing efforts are bearing fruit.
Although JCPenney has been gradually improving its metrics, the chain generally underperformed the department store category for most of 2024 – until traffic turned around in October and November 2024, at the height of the brand's "Really Big Deals Reveals" campaign. Visits to JCPenney then declined below the category average again, with the chain underperforming the category between December 2024 and March 2025 – with the exception of February, when the chain's "Petite Power List" campaign may have temporarily boosted visits.
But recently, the company launched a major nationwide campaign titled "Yes, JCPenney," with the goal of challenging and overcoming outdated consumer perceptions of the brand. The ads started running in April 2025, and traffic to the chain picked up significantly – with year-over-year (YoY) visits to JCPenney up 0.7% and 3.0% in April and May 2025, respectively.
Diving into May 2025 YoY traffic to the chain by DMA indicates that the "Yes, JCPenney" has been met with broad success, with the chain seeing visit strength across the country. The visit increases were especially notable in the South and Midwest – with DMAs in South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas seeing major lifts – suggesting that the focus on style and value connected deeply with consumers in these regions.
Diving into the recent audience shifts at JCPenney suggests that part of the campaign's success may be attributed to its resonance with single shoppers. Using the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that nationwide, the share of "Singles and Starters" in JCPenney's captured market edged up slightly from 11.2% in May 2024 to 11.3% in May 2025, while the share of "Significant Singles" rose from 4.4% to 4.7%.
And though these nationwide shifts are relatively small ones, in some DMAs where JCPenney saw a particularly notable YoY visit increase, the share of singles in the chain’s trade area increased more significantly. For example, May YoY data shows that JCPenney visits in New York, NY, increased by 9.8%, while the share of "Significant Singles" grew from 22.7% to 26.1%. And in Tyler-Longview, TX, visits increased 18.0% YoY in May 2025 while the share of "Singles and Starters" rose from 12.8% to 14.0% in the same period.
JCPenney's success in increasing its resonance with single consumers – who are likely younger, and who may be less familiar with the legacy brand – suggests that the "Yes, JCPenney" campaign may be attracting a new generation of shoppers to the chain.
The initial surge in May 2025 foot traffic, particularly among younger, single shoppers, is quite promising. Will the company succeed in converting shoppers brought in through the "Yes, JCPenney" campaign into sustained visitors and loyal customers?
Keep up with The Anchor to find out.
Apparel retail has experienced significant setbacks in recent years, from the COVID-19 pandemic to supply chain disruptions to inflation – and now the emerging threat of tariffs. Yet, the sector continues to adapt. We took a look at the overall performance of the luxury apparel segment to see how things are holding up as the year's first half draws to a close.
The current economic climate has posed significant challenges to the apparel retail segment, and luxury retail has not been immune. The category saw its visits slow year-over-year throughout 2024, likely owing to the accumulated strain of inflation and rising prices. Yet, a surprising opportunity is now emerging, stemming from an unexpected catalyst: tariff concerns.
While apparel visits (excluding the off-price segment) generally slowed year-over-year, luxury apparel experienced only a single month of visit declines – in February '25 – likely owing to the comparison to a leap year and a longer February 2024. And more recently, luxury apparel has been performing especially well, with the segment seeing year-over-year (YoY) increases of 4.7% and 4.4% in April and May 2024, respectively – perhaps driven by the risk of price hikes and the uncertainty around the current tariff landscape.
Diving into the audience composition for nationwide luxury brands reveals that the category's current strength is likely driven in part by a more affluent and more suburban consumer base. Over the past four years, the median household income (HHI) in luxury chains' captured market has increased – rising from $101.9K in May 2025 to $108.0K in May 2025. During this period, the share of suburban consumers in the category's trade area also grew, from 39.1% in May 2022 to 41.9% in May 2025.
This suggests that the luxury sector's current resilience is being powered by an increasingly affluent and suburban clientele who are likely better insulated from broader economic pressures.
Despite operating in a challenging environment, luxury retail is finding ways to keep its visits up. Will the segment continue to rally?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Despite the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, overall retail traffic this year has remained generally on par with 2024 levels. Between January and May 2025, retail visits were 0.4% higher than for the equivalent period in 2024, with April and May 2025 visits up 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively.
Some of the recent strength may be attributed to a pull-forward of consumer demand as a response to potential price hikes and limited product availability. But the strongest year-over-year (YoY) visit increase in 2025 so far was actually in January – when visits were up 3.4% compared to January 2024 – highlighting the resilience of retail consumers in 2025 and boding well for the upcoming back to school season.
Diving into YoY May 2025 retail visit data by state suggests that back to school performance may be particularly strong in the West: Retail traffic in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana was 3.0% to 5.1% higher than in May 2024, while Utah's retail chains received a 5.0% YoY boost in traffic. Consumers in these states may be particularly primed to spend this summer.
Meanwhile, several Eastern states (Ohio, New York, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia) saw YoY declines in May 2025 retail visits, perhaps suggesting that consumer confidence in those states is slightly more muted. This may indicate that back to school retail traffic will be slightly weaker in these markets.
Last year, sportswear & athleisure and footwear retailers saw the largest back to school visit jumps, followed by office supplies and traditional apparel (excluding off-price, department stores, and sportswear & athleisure). These segments all saw slight visit increases in May 2025 and are likely to continue seeing sizable traffic spikes for back to school season this year.
But looking at the visit data from April and March reveals that the retail categories seeing the strongest visit trends currently are the segments that get a slightly smaller boost from back to school – including furniture & home furnishings, off-price retailers, and thrift stores. Some of this strength may be attributed to pull-forward of demand (as consumers could have bought larger ticket items like furniture in anticipation of price hikes) or to shoppers' value-orientation (driving visits up for off-price and thrift stores). But these categories' recent success may also suggest that home furnishings, off-price apparel, and thrift stores could see higher volumes of consumer traffic this year compared to 2024.
Ahead of the 2025 back to school season, retail traffic data paints the picture of a generally resilient consumer, despite the regional variability. And while last year's big back to school winners will likely perform well again in 2025, more secondary back to school categories – including home furnishings, off-price, and thrift stores – may be the ones to come out on top this year.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
The dining segment has faced no shortage of challenges in recent years. Rising food and labor costs, inflation, and shifting consumer habits have put pressure on many chains – but some are thriving.
We take a look at three dining chains – local favorites that have been expanding in recent years – to see what lies behind their surprising success.
Visits to the overall fast-casual segment remained flat year over year (YoY) in Q1 2025, highlighting the challenging state of the dining category. But three expanding local restaurant chains – Pura Vida Miami, Mendocino Farms, and P. Terry’s Burger Stand – all saw their foot traffic grow significantly in the same period.
Florida-based Pura Vida Miami, a cafe that specializes in health and wellness, saw the biggest jump in foot traffic, with visits growing by 58.5% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. The eatery, which opened its first location in 2012, and now boasts 35 locations across South Florida and New York has no plans to slow its rapid expansion. And fittingly, the average number of visits to each location of the chain also increased by 11.9% YoY – highlighting that its new venues are meeting strong demand.
California-based fast-casual restaurant Mendocino Farms also places a strong emphasis on healthy dining. Founded in 2005, the chain has grown to 75 locations – most of them in California – and continues to thrive, with visits up by 23.0% in Q1 2025 and visits per location rising by 12.9%. Austin, Texas favorite P. Terry’s Burger Stand, which opened in 2005, is also thriving. The chain grew its presence over the past year, adding new locations in Houston – and like the other analyzed brands, saw increases in both overall visits and average visits per location.
Location analytics show that each of the chains is finding success in its own way. Diving into hourly visitation patterns for Pura Vida Miami, for example, reveals a subtle but notable shift in its peak visit times, suggesting that as the chain expands, it is successfully positioning itself as a breakfast and lunchtime destination. Between Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, the share of visitors arriving between 7:00 and 11:00 AM, and 12:00 - 4:00 PM increased slightly, while the proportion of evening visitors declined.
To capitalize on this trend, Pura Vida could consider further developing its morning menu or, conversely, exploring opportunities to enhance its dinner menu to attract a cohort that seeks health-centric dinner items.
Mendocino Farms, for its part, appears to be deriving some of its success from the affluence of its customer base. The chain, which boasts over 60 of its 75 locations in California, has also established a presence in Washington, Texas, and Colorado. Mendocino Farms will be opening around 15 new locations throughout 2025, and will begin its eastward march, opening a location in Chicago in the coming months.
And a look at the chains’ two largest markets, California and Texas, shows that visitors to the Mendocino Farms in Q1 2025 were more likely to come from high-income trade areas, likely insulating them from the overall challenges facing the wider dining segment. For example, the median HHI of visitors to Mendocino Farms in California was $123.8K, compared to the California average of $96.7K. And in Texas, its second-largest market, visitors originated from trade areas with a median HHI of $105.8K – significantly higher than both the Texas ($76.5K) and nationwide ($78.9K) medians.
P. Terry’s Burger Stand is a Texas cult favorite. The chain, which has grown from a family-owned burger stand in 2005 to 34 locations in the Austin area is thriving, and recently began expanding into other cities in Texas.
Over the years, the chain has become something of a weekend destination, with 30.4% of its visitors coming on the weekends in Q1 2025 – up from 28.1% in Q1 2024. This suggests that, as the chain grows, more customers are incorporating P. Terry's into their weekend routines, likely drawn by its blend of quality and accessible price point. This increasing weekend popularity, coupled with its strategic expansion into new markets like Houston, bodes well for P. Terry's continued growth across Texas.
The three dining chains are proving that, even in challenging times, there’s plenty of space for local favorites to flourish.
Will these chains continue to thrive in the second half of 2025?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor to stay up-to-date with the latest data driving dining stores.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
