Guest Contributors

Q2 2025 is done and dusted - and analyst Chris Walton takes a look at the retail performance of chains including Starbucks and Target to see how his Q1 2025 predictions held up - and what might lie ahead for the next quarter of the year.

Coffee’s top chains show diverse paths in Q2 2025. Starbucks’ visits narrowed declines, Dunkin’ saw modest growth via value, and Dutch Bros continued rapid expansion. These distinct strategies shape the competitive market.

Shake Shack Q2 visits up 13.7% (per-venue -1.7%). Wingstop visits up 3.6% (per-venue -6.3%). These divergent paths show brand resilience. Shake Shack appeals to higher HHI. Wingstop's lower HHI family base faces budget pressure, impacting loyalty. Both brands adapt for future success.

Warby Parker sees visits up, though Q2 VPL dipped -2.7%. Allbirds' overall visits fell -12.5%, but Q2 VPL surged +18.2%. Both find unique success in their divergent brick-and-mortar strategies, proving different paths can move forward.

Movie theaters generally remain below 2019 visits, but Cinemark bucks this, nearing pre-pandemic levels (down 2.6% for flagship brand). Its success comes from targeting budget-conscious families with value memberships and child-friendly amenities, sustaining visits despite industry challenges.

July 2025 promotions primarily boosted weekday retail traffic, but overall in-store visits were down YoY. Walmart notably defied this trend with increased visits. Consumers focused on high-value purchases during the period.

McDonald's Snack Wrap re-launch on July 10 drove a significant visit surge, up 15.0% from the 2025 YTD daily average. This initial success highlights the power of nostalgia-driven menu innovation to boost traffic, crucial for McDonald's ongoing efforts to reverse recent sales and traffic plateaus

McDonald's and Chipotle show diverse paths in Q2 2025. McDonald's visits rebounded, driven by innovation. Chipotle's overall visits grew, but its per-location traffic saw a dip. Both companies are expanding aggressively, shaping the dining landscape and demonstrating resilience amidst market challenges.