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McDonald's recent re-introduction of the snack wrap joins the recent wave of nostalgia-driven menu innovations – and initial data suggests that the fan-favorite is already driving up visits to the chain. On July 10th – the day of the launch – McDonald's traffic nationwide was up 15.0% compared to the 2025 YTD daily average and 11.4% higher than the YTD Thursday average, and visits remained high on Friday and Saturday as well.
The Snack Wrap's return comes at a critical time for McDonald's, as the chain continues to lean on menu innovations to turn around its recent traffic plateau plateau and sales dips.
Will the initial excitement translate into a sustained visit hike?
Visit placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining analysis.
Chipotle and McDonald’s are two major players in the fast-casual and quick-service dining scene. With the year's first half behind us, we take a look at how foot traffic to these dining giants performed – and what might lie ahead in the second half of the year.
The wider retail and dining world continues to work through the challenges of inflation and new tariff concerns. But McDonald is focusing on its future, with major expansion plans and menu changes in the works. The chain is bringing back fan favorites, introducing new products, and debuting a new beverage line inspired by its now-defunct CosMc chain.
And the data suggests that these changes are helping drive visits, with the chain outperforming the wider QSR segment in Q2 2025. With the chain continuing its menu innovations in H2 2025 and a major expansion on the horizon, the positive Q2 2025 trends may signal a strong H2 ahead.
McDonald's expansion strategy is ambitious, with plans to open 900 locations around the country by 2027. Where should the chain open these new restaurants to ensure they meet a ready demand?
Diving into YoY same-store visits by state in H1 2025 reveals that much of McDonald's same-store visit increases were concentrated in the western United States, with the Southwest standing out as a particularly strong locus of growth. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona in particular saw YoY same-store visit growths of 4.9%, 4.2%, and 3.4%, respectively – suggesting that diners in these states may be particularly receptive to new McDonald's restaurants.
Chipotle has been a dining powerhouse over the past few years, consistently expanding its presence while maintaining visit growth. Indeed, visits to the chain increased 0.7% YoY in Q2 2025, slightly outpacing the 0.5% increase in visits for the wider fast casual segment.
Meanwhile, visits per location trends tell a slightly different story – the average number of visits per venue fell in Q2 '25 even as visits per venue remained flat in the wider fast casual segment. Some of the dip is likely due to lapping the successful Chicken al Pastor launch and to the Easter calendar shift, which made for a difficult comparison. But the dip had narrowed to just -1.5% by June 2025, suggesting that the chain may be seeing the impacts of its latest menu additions.
But even as Chipotle's visits per location trends trail slightly behind the wider fast casual segment, the chain's overall visit growth has helped capture a growing share of fast-casual visits in recent years despite the rising competition in the segment. In Q2 2025, more than a quarter (26.0%) of fast casual visits went to the fast casual giant – a significant increase from its 20.3% relative visit share in Q1 2019.
And the chain has no plans of slowing, with a goal of opening between 315 and 345 new restaurants in 2025 – setting Chipotle up for continued growth within the dining sector.
Chipotle and McDonald’s continue to drive visit growth even as the wider dining space experiences challenges.
Will visits grow further in H2, or will economic headwinds slow down these upward trends?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining insights.
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Following years of volatility and multiple bankruptcies filings, JOANN – the 82-year-old fabric and craft retailer – shuttered its final stores in May 2025, with many stores already closing in April 2025. But diving into traffic trends for some of JOANN's competitors suggest that JOANN's bankruptcy and ultimate closure was not necessarily the result of lowered demand for crafting supplies.
Year-over-year (YoY) visit trends to JOANN stores were mostly stable prior to the closure announcements, and traffic skyrocketed as consumers descended on the bargain-priced fabrics and sewing supplies during the chain's liquidation sales. And since the closures, visits to other crafting retailers has skyrocketed, with traffic to Michael's – JOANN's main competitor that even bought chain's intellectual property – up 9.2% YoY in June 2025.
JOANN is not the only hobby and crafts chain to go bankrupt over the past twelve months – Party City, which had filed for bankruptcy in 2023, also shut its last remaining stores in February 2025. And though Party City's main focus may have been party supplies, the retailer also carried an assortment of arts and crafts supplies. This means that in H1 2025 two craft-forward legacy retailers permanently shut down.
So what brought JOANN and Party City down? While several factors contributed, one significant challenge faced by both companies was their size. Although JOANN had a loyal following in some circles, the retailer's brick-and-mortar footprint was relatively moderate – in 2024, JOANN received less than half as many visits as Michaels, due in part to its significantly smaller store fleet. Party City was even smaller, receiving less than half the visits going to Hobby Lobby last year.
This means that Party City and JOANN likely lacked the economies of scale and marketing dominance of the Hobby Lobby and Michaels – making it harder to stay afloat in an increasingly competitive market. And Party City and JOANN's mid-size brick-and-mortar footprint likely also made it more difficult to compete with mass merchants such as Walmart and Target.
But if the market consolidation forces of recent years drove JOANN and Party City out of business – what to make of the endurance of tiny Blick and its 0.3% visit share? The answer to that may lie in another trend. The bifurcation of consumer spending since COVID has sustained demand for premium, quality brands and products alongside significant growth for value-oriented retail chains. And looking at the trade area median household income for the five analyzed chains highlights Blick's affluent visitor base – and suggests that the chain has successfully positioned itself as a premium purveyor of quality arts supply.
This in turn allows Blick to operate in a wholly different field where it is not competing directly with the Hobby Lobbies (or Walmarts) of the world. Instead, it has carved out a defensible niche where the defining competitive metric isn't price, but the quality and curation of its products.
The divergent paths of JOANN and its competitors highlight the new realities of the craft retail market, where operating without the scale of a Michaels or the premium, defensible niche of a Blick can create a significant liability.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Retail media networks – advertising platforms enabling third parties to promote products and services on a retailer’s websites, digital apps, brick-and-mortar stores, or across partners’ digital properties – have firmly entered the mainstream. Major chains across industries now allow sellers direct access to consumers at the critical point of purchase. And since most shopping still takes place offline, retailers are increasingly expanding their in-store retail media offerings – through digital signage, in-store audio, sampling stations, and in-app features that appear when a customer is physically in the store.
But what do location analytics tell us about the relationship between online and offline retail in 2025 – and the potential role of brick-and-mortar retail media in driving consumer engagement? We dove into the data to find out.
A closer look at several chains that are heavily investing in brick-and-mortar retail media reveals how the in-store / online mix varies by both retailer and season. Unsurprisingly, Kroger’s unique physical visitors outpaced unique website visitors (desktop and mobile) during every quarter. In contrast, The Home Depot’s in-store visitors were closer to its online traffic – occasionally dropping below it in Q1 2025. Target, Lowe’s, and Walmart fell somewhere in between these two extremes.
Interestingly, all chains analyzed attracted more physical visitors in the spring and summer (Q2 and Q3) than in the fall and winter. For both retail media networks and their advertising partners, understanding the interplay between online and offline traffic is crucial for optimizing advertising strategies.
Walmart has emerged as a leader in brick-and-mortar retail media. Through Walmart Connect, the company provides partners with a variety of in-store advertising solutions, including digital screens, in-store radio, on-site demos, and sponsored events at Walmart locations. And non-endemic brands – ranging from restaurants to financial services – can also tap into both Walmart’s online and offline retail media networks.
And foot traffic data shows that the ratio of online to offline Walmart visitors differs greatly throughout the country. In the South Central region, including Texas, Walmart’s physical stores saw 85.0% more unique visitors in May 2025 than its website. But in the Northeast, the gap narrowed to just 8.4%. So advertisers may find cost-effective opportunities by tailoring campaigns to regional traffic tendencies.
The relative size of Walmart’s state-wide markets also varies by channel. In May 2025, Texas accounted for 10.2% of Walmart’s unique in-store visitors, making it the top regional brick-and-mortar market. Yet online, California took the lead at 12.1% of total website visitors. So advertisers aiming for the biggest in-store crowd might choose Texas, while those focused on digital reach could invest more in California. Florida, meanwhile, remained the third-largest market for both online and offline traffic, grabbing about 7.0% of each.
Though offline shopping continues to dominate, the numbers show that neither channel exists in a vacuum. And given how shopper preferences differ by region and season, brands that harness both online and offline data can craft more relevant, impactful campaigns.
For more data-driven retail and advertising analysis follow Placer.ai/anchor.
The grocery segment has never been more competitive, and Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and Lidl have consistently emerged as top players. The three chains share similarities: all offer a limited assortment of groceries and tend to operate at lower price points – however, each one is carving out its own distinct path to growth.
We take a closer look at their performance in H1 2025 to uncover what might be contributing to their continued success.
Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and Lidl have established themselves as formidable players in the grocery segment, consistently thriving despite a challenging market. And diving into H1 2025 underscores their impressive success.
The three grocery chains enjoyed consistently elevated visits in H1 2025, significantly outpacing the wider grocery segment. While overall grocery visits increased by 1.8% YoY, Aldi’s visits grew by 7.1%, Trader Joe’s by 11.9%, and Lidl posted growth of 4.9% during the analyzed period. The three chains also outpaced the wider industry in terms of average visit per location growth.
This strong H1 performance is extra impressive given how well the three chains have performed in recent years. And diving into individual metrics for each chain can further show how they are thriving – and what might lie behind their success.
Trader Joe’s, known for its whimsical and community-centric approach to grocery shopping, got its start in Pasadena, California. Since then, the chain has expanded to nearly 600 locations across the country – but California remains its most significant market. The company operates over 200 locations in the Golden State alone and recently announced plans to expand its footprint within its largest market.
Examining the visitor share among California’s top grocery chains, including major players like Safeway, Ralphs, and VONS, highlights just how well Trader Joe’s is performing in the state. While these chains maintained relatively stable visit shares over the past few years, Trader Joe’s saw its relative visit share grow from 13.2% in H1 2019 to 15.7% in H1 2025. This success underscores the value of investing in product and community – two areas where Trader Joe’s excels.
Aldi, the German grocery giant, derives much of its success from its impressive operational prowess. The chain is laser-focused on maximizing efficiency and streamlining operations in a bid to keep overhead low and customers coming through its doors. And its efforts seem to be paying off – the chain is one of the fastest-growing grocery chains in the nation. Over the past few years, Aldi has opened new stores at a rapid pace, acquiring smaller chains in pursuit of its goal of opening an additional 800 stores by 2028.
And crucially, even as Aldi expands its footprint, the chain continues to draw more average visits per location. Average visits per location were 1.6% higher than they were in 2024, 17.4% higher than in 2023, and 26.7% higher than in 2022. This signals that its new stores are being met by sustained and growing shopper interest instead of cannibalizing foot traffic from existing locations.
This model allows Aldi to grow its footprint and customer base simultaneously and demonstrates an impressive capacity to meet – and create – continued demand for its offerings.
Like Aldi, Lidl emigrated to the United States from Germany – and the chain offers a similar promise of limited-assortment products and lower prices. Diving into visitor demographics at the chain highlights where Lidl shines – and where it has room to grow. Between 2019 and 2025, the chain grew its share of suburban, wealthy, and older segments – but the share of visitors falling into the “Singles and Starters” demographic segment shrunk.
Lidl has been adding new stores in recent months, and while it has certainly leaned into its thriving suburban segment, new locations are also appearing in major cities. This push beyond its established wealthy, suburban roots suggests Lidl may be looking to broaden its appeal to a more diverse urban consumer base.
Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl continue to thrive despite a challenging retail environment – and while all chains are known for their great deals, the different price points, audiences, and focuses underscore that their success is rooted in strategies beyond their value propositions.
Will these chains continue to drive increased foot traffic in H2 2025? Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven grocery insights.
Summer often brings out the latest fashion trends as consumers head for coastal cities, the beach, summer vacations, and the pool. Sometimes we see new trends catch fire altogether, but summer also tends to signal to shoppers that it’s time to revitalize classic products or items already in their closets in new ways.
L.L.Bean, the outdoor lifestyle retailer and brand, has always been at the center of repeat trends. Its New England heritage lends itself to fashion moments centered around preppy or Americana dressing, and its staple products like the L.L.Bean Boot and Boat and Tote have become longstanding favorites.
Over the past few years, the Boat and Tote product specifically has had its own renaissance as consumers once again flocked to this classic style. Another trend that we can thank TikTok for, the bag became a viral sensation in 2022 as creators would embroider ironic sayings onto their bags instead of the traditional monogram offered. This year appears to be a reinvigoration of this trend, and with new inspirations coming into the fold, such as the “Boatkin”, there is plenty of runway left for the Boat & Tote to keep L.L.Bean top of mind for shoppers. The Boat & Tote also reflects the change in consumer behavior over the last few years relating to branded products and logos – consumers are opting for more subtle designs without logos that can be used for everyday activities.
L.L.Bean retail locations have certainly benefited from the virality of the Boat & Tote. Looking at 2025 traffic performance year-to-date, visits are up almost 15% compared to 2024. Against the backdrop of challenging traffic for many retail chains, this number is even more impressive.
L.L.Bean stores also fit the mold of the current formula that is working in retail – large format stores that offer a wide variety of experiences, assortments, and services that keep customers engaged for longer, with the average dwell time at 32 minutes. Related to the renaissance of the Boat and Tote in 2025, L.L.Bean stores recently added a bag charm bar to locations for consumers to adorn their bags in unique ways, leaning into current trends being seen across the accessories category. Concepts like the charm bar could make the difference in consumers choosing to shop in store instead of simply ordering online.
L.L.Bean’s focus on its iconic products despite the change in trends over time has served the brand in attracting new shoppers with each passing generation. The chain attracts visitors across suburban and rural families, Young Professionals as well as Sunset Boomers. Different generations of consumers have all found their way to L.L.Bean retail locations for different reasons, but the core products that remain have outlasted other trends.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
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As consumer sentiment hovers near historic lows and the cost of goods remains elevated, value has become a defining theme across the dining industry. Yet within the sector's diverse restaurant categories – and for individual brands – the question is no longer whether consumers are seeking value, but what value actually means. A closer look at chains across the industry suggests that, amid ongoing economic pressure, perceptions of value are evolving. For some consumers, value may be tied to affordability and promotions; for others, it may come from quality, convenience, or experience. The result is a market with multiple paths to winning consumer traffic.
After an uneven but largely resilient 2025, dining traffic in 2026 tipped into a sustained decline.
Monthly visits to the overall dining industry have trailed year-ago levels throughout 2026, with February standing as the lone exception. That month saw a 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) increase in visits, driven in part by comparisons to the period of initial tariff announcements in early 2025. But broader trends remained challenged, and May's 2.5% YoY decline marked the steepest monthly drop of the past twelve months as rising gas prices and weakening consumer sentiment appear to have added pressure to an industry already navigating a difficult environment.
These headwinds, though, have not landed evenly. Across the dining sector, some segments have faced more intense pressure than others, with much of the divide coming down to how consumers are perceiving value against experience.
Over the past several years, inflation and rising menu prices have gradually weakened a cost-based value proposition that has long been central to the QSR segment. More recently, elevated gas prices have added another deterrent, making a trip through the drive-thru a less compelling choice for some consumers.
Strong performance at grocery stores and superstores suggests that competition for share-of-stomach is increasingly extending beyond traditional restaurant rivals. With expanding selections of ready-to-eat and pre-prepared meals, these channels are offering consumers a combination of value, convenience, and quality that can increasingly match limited-service dining options. At the same time, ongoing pressure on household budgets appears to be driving more consumers toward lower-cost meals made at home, creating additional headwinds for the QSR segment.
Yet for many consumers, there is still a time and place for dining out, and in the face of mounting economic pressure, several dining formats have found foot traffic success. Fine dining has posted traffic growth in nearly every month of 2026, with March standing as the lone exception. That decline was likely influenced by a calendar shift, as March 2026 contained one fewer Saturday than March 2025 – a meaningful headwind for full-service restaurants given the outsized role weekends play in driving visits. The segment's sustained growth points to the resilience of higher-income consumers and the enduring appeal of premium, occasion-driven dining experiences.
Fast casual and casual dining have also proven relatively resilient. The fast casual category saw positive YoY foot traffic in every month of 2026 so far, while casual dining's performance has rebounded since the March calendar shift that likely weighed on YoY traffic. A second calendar shift in May 2026 led to an extra Saturday in the month, which likely helped the segment's overall trend. These trends suggest that both fast casual and casual dining occupy an increasingly attractive middle ground where value is defined as a combination of affordability and experience. At the same time, years of menu price hikes at QSR chains have altered the cost equation in fast casual and casual dining's favor, narrowing the price gap between fast food and more elevated dining formats. As that gap has narrowed, consumers may be placing greater emphasis on experience and quality when deciding where to dine.
The balance between price and elevated experience has made fast casual a favorite for value in the dining industry in 2026. A closer look at two of the segment's largest players, CAVA, a relatively young concept, and Chipotle, a legacy chain navigating operational challenges, shows how brands can deliver on that value proposition in different ways and win in today’s dining landscape.
Chipotle's traffic trends in 2026 have improved compared to 2025, with the brand offering a clear example of how fast casual brands can create value by pairing menu innovation with loyalty perks.
Chipotle outpaced the broader fast casual category in YoY visits nearly every week of 2026 so far. And the graph below shows that the chain's strongest traffic gains tended to coincide with major menu launches and loyalty initiatives – a key component of its ongoing "Recipe for Growth" strategy.
The return of fan-favorite Chicken al Pastor in the week of February 9, 2026 helped drive a 16.6% YoY increase in visits. Two months later, the launch of "Rewards on Repeat" – a refreshed loyalty program offering freebies upon sign-up – generated the period's largest weekly traffic gain, with visits rising 18.2% YoY. And the introduction of Honey Chicken on April 28 provided another boost, as the chain continued to rotate limited-time protein offerings and give customers reasons to return.
These performance peaks suggest that Chipotle has been particularly effective at pairing menu novelty with loyalty perks to reinforce a value proposition anchored by quality and experience.
Year-over-Year Change in Weekly Visits, Chipotle vs. Fast Casual, Jan.–Jun. 2026
Dashed lines mark key Chipotle promotional launch dates. Week-of dates shown; launches may have occurred mid-week.
If Chipotle illustrates the power of menu innovation and loyalty-driven engagement, CAVA highlights a different approach to creating value – one rooted in variety, customization, and a consistently differentiated dining experience.
CAVA's overall visits climbed well above 20% YoY in every month of 2026, a pace largely driven by aggressive unit expansion. Meanwhile, same-store visits, which measure traffic at locations open for at least twelve months, sustained positive YoY growth – evidence of genuine demand at existing restaurants alongside a rapidly growing footprint.
While Chipotle leans on limited-time offers, CAVA's growth rests on a consistent, customizable experience. A deep roster of proteins paired with a wide range of bases, dips, and toppings, gives the chain built-in variety that helps keep the concept feeling fresh. In addition, CAVA's Mediterranean-inspired menu offers flavors and combinations that are less easily replicated at home, helping the brand maintain a differentiated experiential value proposition and drive growth.
O Though Chipotle and CAVA are at different points in their evolution and have taken different paths to growth, both highlight the enduring appeal of fast casual's balance of value and quality. In a dining environment where consumers are increasingly weighing cost against experience, the segment's ability to deliver on both has helped make it one of the industry's strongest-performing formats.
Fast casual isn't the only dining segment benefiting from consumers' evolving perception of value. In 2026, several casual dining chains have found success by pairing accessible price points with the elevated experience of a sit-down meal.
Brands such as BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse, Chili's Grill & Bar, Bonefish Grill, Cicis, and The Cheesecake Factory all posted positive YoY visit growth in multiple months this year, demonstrating that even in a challenging economic environment, diners are motivated when they feel they are getting more in return. These results are particularly notable given the impact of calendar shifts, which weighed on March 2026 comparisons – and provided a tailwind to May performance.
Unlike many fast casual chains, these brands have not relied heavily on a steady stream of limited-time offers to drive traffic. While menu innovation remains part of the playbook, promotions often serve as ticket builders or engagement tools rather than primary traffic catalysts. Instead, these successful casual dining chains have focused on creating everyday value that diners can depend on, narrowing the price gap between limited-service restaurants and full-service dining.
The result is a value equation that encompasses table service, a more relaxed dining environment, and a place to socialize or celebrate an occasion. In an environment where consumers are increasingly weighing cost against overall experience, that combination appears to be helping several casual dining chains maintain positive traffic momentum.
Although dining traffic has softened in 2026, the industry's performance suggests that consumers have not stopped spending on restaurants altogether. Instead, they have become more selective about where they dine and what they expect in return.
Across segments, the strongest performers have found different ways to deliver value. For some brands, that means menu innovation, loyalty engagement, and differentiated experiences. For others, it means dependable affordability paired with the service and atmosphere of a sit-down meal. As economic pressures continue to shape consumer behavior, the data suggests that value is no longer defined by price alone, but by the balance of cost, convenience, quality, and experience.
During the pandemic and its aftermath, Americans were on the move. Millions left expensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt, while boomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with the influx of new residents.
That wave of relocation has since cooled, as return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage rates, and a shrinking affordability gap between coastal cities and many COVID-era hotspots have dampened the incentive to move. But even in a slower market, domestic migration remains one of the most powerful forces shaping local economies, housing markets, and consumer demand.
This report leverages AI-powered location analytics to examine the relocation patterns reshaping the United States in 2026 – where Americans are moving, the demographic and economic forces driving those decisions, and how retailers, investors, developers, and policymakers can respond to the opportunities and challenges created by these shifts.
Which major metros are attracting the most new residents? Which pandemic-era standouts have seen growth stall or reverse? And what factors best predict a large metro area's domestic migration growth potential in 2026?
The latest statewide migration data shows that the slower relocation pace observed in 2024 persisted into 2025. No state recorded net inflows or outflows exceeding 0.7% of its starting population. And while several smaller states continued to attract new residents at meaningful rates, none of the nation's six most populous states saw net in-migration exceed 0.2%.
Among those smaller states, South Carolina and Delaware led the nation with net in-migration equal to 0.7% of their populations, followed by Idaho (0.6%), Maine (0.5%), Tennessee (0.4%), and North Carolina (0.3%). For most of these states, migration accelerated relative to 2024, though Delaware's inflow rate moderated slightly and North Carolina held steady.
Despite their differences, these states tend to offer a similar mix of lifestyle amenities, relatively low congestion, and opportunities for growth. Many also benefit from business-friendly climates, favorable tax policies, or housing costs that remain attractive relative to the higher-cost markets from which they draw new residents.
At the other end of the spectrum was Vermont, which saw the nation’s largest net outflow as share of population in 2025, losing 0.4% of its population to domestic relocation. The decline deepens a reversal that first emerged in 2024, when the state swung to a net loss of 0.2%, after attracting inflows of 0.8% and 0.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Vermont's reversal likely reflects a combination of factors, including return-to-office mandates and the waning appeal of remote work. Housing undersupply in the state may have also contributed, illustrating how important infrastructure investments are to sustaining migration gains over time.
Among the nation's six most populous states, Florida was the only one to see accelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents equal to 0.2% of its starting population, up from 0.1% the year before. Texas, by contrast, slowed from 0.1% net in-migration in 2024 to essentially flat in 2025, highlighting the cooling of what was once one of the country's strongest pandemic-era migration magnets.
Meanwhile, the legacy "exodus" states continue to lose residents, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Illinois and California have seen their migration deficits steadily narrow, with further improvement in 2025. Between 2022 and 2025, Illinois moved from -0.8% → -0.2% → -0.2% → -0.1%, while California moved from -0.9% → -0.4% → -0.3% → -0.2%. And though New York has held steady at -0.2% over the past two years, this marks a significant moderation from 2022, when the state experienced net outmigration equal to 1.1% of its population.
Statewide trends reveal important shifts, but a closer look at the nation's ten largest metropolitan areas suggests that broader interstate averages increasingly mask diverging local realities. Several metros are attracting residents through interstate domestic migration even when their states as a whole are experiencing little or no net migration growth.
Phoenix (+0.3%), for example, stood out as the nation's top-performing large metro in 2025, despite Arizona's absence from the list of leading migration destinations – with the majority of its inflow coming from out of state.
Dallas (+0.2%) ranked second, continuing its rebound from -0.1% in 2023 even as Texas' statewide migration gains cooled. Like Phoenix, Dallas drew a majority of its new residents from outside the state, underscoring its growing appeal as a national migration destination. Houston, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, falling from 0.1% net in-migration in 2023 to -0.1% in 2025. While it is too early to call this a sustained reversal, the divergence between the two metros may reflect Dallas's growing pull as a corporate magnet alongside rising housing costs and weather-related challenges in Houston.
Metro-level data also suggests that the pandemic-era "big-city exodus" narrative is continuing to fade. Los Angeles improved from -0.8% in 2023 to -0.3% in 2025, while New York held steady at -0.3% after improving in 2024. Even Miami (-0.6%), which ranked last among major metros despite Florida's continued statewide gains, saw its outflows moderate from 2023 levels. And while Illinois continued to post net outmigration, Chicago (0.0%) reached migration neutrality in 2025 after recording losses in both 2023 and 2024.
Despite Miami's struggles – and Florida’s relatively modest 0.2% inflow – a look beyond the top 10 large metros reveals that the Sunshine State is home to six of the nation's eight fastest-growing large metros nationwide.
Those top-performing metros, defined as CBSAs with 500K+ residents that added at least 0.8% of their population through net domestic migration over the past year, share a similar profile: lower housing costs, retiree appeal, suburban density, and an easy drive to a larger economic hub.
Much of the growth of these Florida metro areas, however, is being fueled from within Florida itself. While major out-of-state metros such as New York (6.1%) and Chicago (2.0%) remained important sources of new residents, nearly half of the net migration into Florida's top destination metros came from elsewhere in the state. In 2025, Miami (22.5%), Orlando (13.0%), Tampa (5.8%), and Naples (4.2%) together accounted for 45.5% of the net positive migration feeding these fast-growing markets.
The migration flows feeding the nation’s fastest-growing large metros suggest that affordability remains a powerful driver of domestic relocation.
In 2025, seven of the eight top destination metros analyzed above had lower typical home values than their largest feeder markets. Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL, for example, had a typical home value of $313.4K in December 2024, compared with $404.9K in Orlando and $380.2K in Tampa – its two largest sources of net migration. Even North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL – the most expensive Florida metro in this group – drew its largest share of net migration from the New York metro area, where home values are substantially higher.
The lone exception was Charleston–North Charleston, SC, whose largest source of net migration was Baltimore – a market with lower typical home values than the destination. Even in Charleston, however, affordability appears to have played a role. New York, a significantly more expensive market, ranked a close second in 2025, accounting for 6.5% of net positive migration into Charleston, just behind Baltimore’s 6.8%.
While housing costs are only one factor influencing migration decisions, the data suggests that households continue to gravitate toward markets where homeownership is comparatively more attainable than in the places they leave behind.
Typical Home Values* in Top Feeder Markets to Destination Hubs, 2025
*Typical home value based on Zillow Research’s Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for Dec. 2024, immediately preceding the analyzed migration period (Jan.–Dec. 2025).
But as important as affordability is in explaining today’s domestic migration patterns, age appears to be an even stronger determinant of where people choose to relocate.
Among mid-sized and large metros (250K+ residents) experiencing significant population shifts – defined as gaining or losing at least 1.0% of their starting population through domestic migration over the past two years – households are increasingly moving toward older, more established communities.
The data reveals a clear negative relationship between migration performance and age differential – a metric calculated by subtracting the median age of the destination market from the weighted median age of its feeder markets. Negative values indicate movement toward older communities, while positive values indicate movement toward younger ones. In other words, the metros attracting the strongest migration inflows tend to be older than the markets sending them residents.
The data also shows a clear positive relationship between migration performance and retiree concentration. Metros with larger shares of residents aged 65 and older generally saw stronger migration gains over the past two years, while younger metros tended to attract fewer newcomers. This suggests that retiree-driven relocation has become an increasingly important driver of migration. At the same time, the influx of younger residents points to the broader appeal of these communities, which offer a mix of affordability, amenities, and lifestyle advantages.
Net Migration as Share of Starting Population, 2024–2025*
*Analysis includes metro areas with 250K+ residents and domestic migration gains or losses of at least 1.0% during the study period. Weighted Age Differential compares the destination market’s median age with the weighted median age of origin markets, with positive values indicating migration toward younger markets and negative values indicating migration toward older markets. Age data: Census ACS 2020–2024.
The pandemic-era urban exodus is giving way to a more nuanced migration landscape. Large urban markets are stabilizing, while growth is increasingly concentrated in smaller states, secondary metros, and intra-state corridors. Affordability remains a powerful pull, but retirees, lifestyle considerations, and local market dynamics are also playing an increasingly important role in where Americans choose to live.
To capitalize on these shifts in 2026, civic leaders, commercial real estate (CRE) investors, retailers, and developers should:
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
