.svg)
U.S. consumer activity looked relatively stable in the first half of 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic (shown in the chart below) staying mostly positive or flat through May – aside from February, when extreme cold and leap year comparisons drove declines.
But momentum shifted in June, when both categories slipped into negative territory, and the softness persisted in July before worsening in August. The late-summer weakness suggests that what began as a temporary cooling may now be evolving into a broader consumer slowdown.
Looking at state-level data reveals that the pullback is not isolated to a few regions. Western states such as Idaho and Utah – where H1 2025 dining traffic rose 2.1% and 2.4% YoY, respectively – flattened out, with visits in July and August down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. And states that had already experienced flat visits or dining softness in H1 2025 saw their visit gaps grow further: YoY dining traffic in New York State declined from -1.2% to -2.3%, while California saw its visits swing from +0.3% in H1 2025 to -2.0% in July and August 2025. Only in Vermont and Rhode Island did YoY dining visits actually increase over the summer.
Statewide retail traffic trends also point to broad-based declines in consumer activity, as visits to retail chains nationwide fell compared to July-August 2024 – even in regions such as the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest that had experienced high consumer resilience in H1 2025. Vermont, joined this time by Delaware, once again stood out as an outlier.
A key driver of the slowdown is the widening gap between higher- and lower-income households. While wealthier consumers have continued to prop up overall spending, middle- and lower-income groups are scaling back. Even among high earners, international summer travel may have drawn dollars away from U.S. retail and dining, softening domestic foot traffic during the analyzed period. This dynamic highlights the risks of relying too heavily on affluent households to sustain consumer activity.
Tariffs have added another layer of complexity. Earlier in the year, many consumers rushed to make purchases ahead of anticipated price hikes. Now, the lingering financial impact of those spring splurges may still be weighing on budgets.
Looking ahead to the holiday season, discretionary fatigue looms large. Spending is expected to slow, led by a sharper cutback from Gen Z. Budget-conscious households may already be tightening their belts in preparation for holiday expenses, further dampening retail and dining performance.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
.avif)
With summer just behind us, we dove into the data to see how office visitation fared in August 2025. Did July’s impressive recovery momentum hold, or did seasonal factors slow the pace?
Visits to the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index registered a 34.3% decline in August 2025 compared to the same period in 2019 – a wider gap than that seen in August 2023, and an even more notable retreat from July's encouraging 21.8% deficit.
However, this apparent setback is largely due to calendar differences: August 2025 had only 21 working days, compared to 22 in both August 2024 and 2019, and 23 in August 2023. When normalized for average visits per workday, August 2025 actually outperformed August 2023.
Seasonal dynamics also likely played a crucial role. August represents peak vacation season, and just as employees often embrace remote work on Fridays to extend weekends, they likely embrace similar flexibility during the peak summer travel season. Organizations may also relax in-office requirements when substantial portions of their workforce are taking time off.
So rather than signaling a genuine return-to-office (RTO) reversal, August's softer performance likely reflects the intersection of compressed work calendars and seasonal vacation patterns, with the underlying recovery trajectory remaining fundamentally intact.
The August effect impacted major markets nationwide, including New York and Miami – both of which achieved full recovery in July yet posted year-over-six-year gaps in excess of 10.0% last month. But while gaps widened across most markets, San Francisco once again avoided last place, ranking ahead of Chicago in post-pandemic office recovery metrics. Despite still facing below-average office attendance relative to 2019 levels, the Bay Area market’s renewed momentum – bolstered by increased AI-sector leasing activity – continues drawing employees back to offices even amid summer distractions.
San Francisco also ranked among August's year-over-year (YoY) office visit recovery leaders, providing further evidence of the city’s robust recovery momentum. But it was Chicago that claimed the top spot with a 12.5% year-over-year (YoY) gain – encouraging progress for the Windy City, though it remains to be seen whether this signals the beginning of a lasting turnaround.
Meanwhile, Boston also exceeded the nationwide year-over-year average of 2.9% with a 3.1% increase, while Washington, D.C. lagged behind with a YoY decline of 3.9%.
As we noted in July, the office recovery path is anything but linear. Months of significant progress are often followed by more sluggish periods – and August 2025 exemplifies how seasonality and calendar differences can obscure underlying trends.
Will September 2025 set a new RTO record as kids return to school and employees refocus?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
Following modest gains to the Placer.ai Industrial Index in June and July, foot traffic to U.S. manufacturing facilities fell 5.6% year over year in August 2025. So even as order books improved in July, operators seem to have scaled back in-plant activity and nonessential visits to navigate cost and policy uncertainty.
Several national and regional gauges underscore the divergence in August. S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.0, its highest since May 2022, as firms built inventory amid worries over prices and supply constraints. Meanwhile, ISM's Production Index fell to 47.8% – 3.6 percentage points lower than July's 51.4% – pointing to weaker factory output, and demand for industrial space has fallen recently for the first time in 15 years. The Philadelphia Fed’s August 2025 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey also showed a decline in general activity as new orders dipped back into negative territory.
Together, these mixed signals mirror Placer.ai's foot-traffic trends: Underlying demand is stabilizing, but managers remain cautious with on-site labor and vendor engagement, with macro uncertainty continuing to translate into swings in on-the-ground activity. Looking ahead, September will reveal whether greater policy clarity and easing cost pressures can help stabilize factory visits after a turbulent summer.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
The same macroeconomic forces pressuring other retail sectors are fueling demand for auto parts: With the U.S. light vehicle fleet now averaging 12.8 years – up from 11.6 in 2019 – and many households delaying new car purchases, aftermarket maintenance has become more essential than ever. And while discretionary upgrades may be postponed, core failure and replacement parts continue to see robust demand. Though tariff-related uncertainty continues to loom, leading retailers report they have managed the impact effectively so far.
Against this backdrop, we dove into the data to check in with AutoZone, O’Reilly Auto Parts, and Advance Auto Parts. How did they fare in Q2 2025? And what awaits them the rest of the year?
AutoZone, the sector's largest chain, continues to expand while growing its customer base. Over the past six years, AutoZone has steadily increased its store count, leaning into growing demand without diluting location-level traffic. Year over year (YoY) too, the chain saw significant visit growth between March and May 2025 – and while June showed some softening, July and August visits remained essentially flat versus 2024, demonstrating stability during the chain’s busy summer maintenance season.
This robust foot traffic performance aligns with the company's recent financials. In its last reporting period (ending May 10, 2025), AutoZone posted a solid 5.0% year-over-year increase in U.S. comparable sales. Commercial performance was especially strong – Do-It-For-Me (DIFM) sales jumped 10.7%, while DIY sales grew 3.0% YoY. And management emphasized that tariff-related impacts have been minimal so far.
O'Reilly Auto Parts is also executing on an impressive expansion strategy. In Q2 2025, overall visits to O’Reilly climbed 4.6% YoY, with same store visits up 3.0%. Compared to 2019, both total and per-location foot traffic has steadily increased, demonstrating the company’s success in combining aggressive growth with operational efficiency.
And in its last reporting quarter, the company posted a 4.1% increase in comparable store sales, with robust performance across both DIY and professional channels. Total sales revenue reached a record $4.53 billion – a 6.0% increase versus last year. The company also noted a modest pricing lift tied to tariffs but emphasized that overall demand trends remain strong.
Advance Auto Parts, for its part, is restructuring to compete more effectively. During the quarter ending July 12th, 2025, net sales fell 7.7% year-over-year, partly due to planned store closures. Still, signs of stabilization are emerging: Comparable-store sales edged up 0.1%, indicating that core demand remains healthy.
And recent foot traffic provides further evidence that the company’s rightsizing strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Same-store traffic declines were narrower than the chain’s overall visit gap – just -1.5% YoY in July and -2.4% in August – suggesting that consolidation is helping shore up performance at remaining locations. At the same time, Advance is modernizing its supply chain to accelerate deliveries and strengthen its DIFM offerings – which, as with its peers, serves as a critical growth anchor for the chain. While it remains to be seen if these moves will drive sustained recovery amid shifting tariff pressures, Advance has restored profitability while implementing its strategic turnaround.
The auto parts sector remains robust, driven by an aging vehicle fleet and delayed new car purchases. And though tariff uncertainty remains, AutoZone, O’Reilly, and Advance are thus far navigating the new cost environment without major disruption. As 2025 unfolds, the second half of the year will show whether higher new-car prices push more consumers into aftermarket maintenance – and how customers, particularly in the DIY segment, respond if retailers need to pass through additional price increases.
For the most up-to-date retail visit data, check out Placer.ai's free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
This year has posed challenges for limited-service dining chains as inflation and higher prices continued to weigh on consumer traffic. We analyzed visitation trends in 2025 so far across major segments to better understand which categories are holding up – and which may need to adjust strategies.
This year brought significant challenges for the limited-service dining industry, as persistent price increases kept many would-be diners at home. Even industry giants like McDonald’s reported declines in same-store sales as lower- and middle-income consumers pulled back spending. Yet several categories, including the ever-impressive chicken segment, managed to buck the trend.
The chart below highlights the differences in YoY foot traffic for major limited service dining concepts in H1 2025. Pizza, burger, and sandwich chains experienced declines, while coffee, chicken, and Mexican-inspired concepts emerged as the growth drivers in terms of overall visit increases.
These segments were likely aided by aggressive unit expansion and consumer preferences shifting toward more affordable, customizable, and protein-forward options. Coffee continues to hold steady as a daily staple, while chicken and Mexican-inspired operators are capturing demand for protein-forward and customizable formats.
However, per-location data tempers this growth narrative. Visits per store declined across every major category – even those with overall visit increases – indicating that expansion may be outpacing underlying demand and pushing the segment toward potential oversaturation.
Recent summer data underscores the cautionary signals. Year-over-year traffic growth for coffee, chicken, and Mexican-inspired concepts was weaker in July than in the first half of the year. By August, declines had spread across nearly every category – with chicken chains in particular seeing a dip in traffic and an even steeper drop in average visits per location – leaving coffee as the only segment to sustain growth.
This broader slowdown in limited-service dining, combined with persistent economic uncertainty, suggests that consumers may be scaling back restaurant spending – even in categories traditionally viewed as more budget-friendly.
While 2025 has been marked by volatility, the underlying consumer appetite for convenient, protein-forward, and customizable dining is helping some limited-service segments stay ahead of the pack. Still, visit per location data suggests that expansion plans may need to be put on ice for the next few quarters.
Instead, operators that focus on menu innovation, building loyalty, and driving higher output per store stand to capture demand when economic pressures ease. As confidence rebounds, concepts that have expanded strategically may be especially well positioned to benefit from renewed consumer traffic.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
After a strong spring for mall traffic, momentum slowed over the summer. As the chart below shows, visits in June declined year-over-year across all three formats, while July and August traffic leveled off.
Yet, even in this softer environment, indoor malls stood out as the only format to register growth – albeit modest – in both July and August. At the same time, outlet malls managed to close their YoY visit gap, likely buoyed by families looking to save on back-to-school shopping. This trend also points to the potential for a rebound in the format, as consumers’ growing focus on value continues to shape shopping behaviors in new ways.
A softer Labor Day capped off the slower summer, with slight dips in visits across all three mall formats compared to Labor Day weekend 2024 (though indoor malls continued to lead with the smallest YoY visit gap). Outlet malls saw the biggest drop, which combined with their flat August performance, suggests that shoppers frequented outlets earlier in the month rather than holding off for Labor Day promotions.
Taken together, these trends indicate that the summer slowdown was not simply the result of consumers holding back for holiday sales. Instead, with sentiment weakening, shoppers appear to be reducing discretionary purchases that typically drive mall traffic, or looking for better value on a routine basis rather than waiting for special sales.
The decline in average mall visit length offers another indicator of softening consumer sentiment and a cutting back on discretionary purchases. Visit length plummeted over the pandemic as consumers tried to limit their time spent in enclosed spaces, but the average visit duration to malls rose in 2023 and again in 2024 – suggesting that malls were slowly regaining their role as destinations for leisure, dining, and extended shopping trips.
The drop in August 2025, however, signals a reversal of that momentum, perhaps reflecting heightened consumer caution and a renewed focus on efficiency and essentials over browsing and discretionary spending.
Malls’ strong visitation trends just a few months ago caution against drawing overly dire conclusions, and the softer summer may represent a temporary reset rather than a lasting shift. Seasonal headwinds, travel, and consumer caution likely weighed on recent performance, while the steady resilience of indoor malls points to enduring shopper demand for in-person experiences. Outlet malls' success in closing their visit gap also adds reason for optimism.
The upcoming holiday season offers malls a chance to regain momentum and recapture consumer attention. While recent trends highlight caution and shorter visit durations, they also underscore consumers’ growing appetite for value and convenience – dynamics that indoor and outlet malls are uniquely positioned to meet. By pairing value-driven promotions with engaging experiences and festive activations, malls can reassert their role as destinations not just for shopping, but for leisure and community during the holidays. This combination positions shopping centers to benefit from seasonal demand, even as consumers remain more selective with discretionary spending.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
.avif)
It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
.avif)
Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
