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From high prices to changing workplace attire (yes, soft pants are most definitely still a thing) – the fashion industry faced plenty of headwinds in 2023. But some segments, like off-price and thrift stores, reaped the benefits of trading down by consumers. And the category as a whole enjoyed a robust holiday season, helping to drive record holiday sales.
So with 2024 getting underway, we dove into the data to explore the evolving relationship between three major segments that comprise the fashion industry: non-off-price apparel chains, off-price retailers (such as T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, and Burlington), and thrift shops.* Which segment drew the most foot traffic in 2023? And how have the demographic profiles of visitors to the three sub-categories shifted in recent years?
*Analysis includes major thrift shop chains, including Goodwill, the Salvation Army, Buffalo Exchange, Plato’s Closet, and others.
Last year saw an acceleration of the redistribution of foot traffic between non-off-price apparel retailers, off-price apparel chains, and thrift shops – a trend which began even before COVID. Back in 2017, non-off-price apparel stores accounted for just over 50% of visits to these three segments – but in the years since, the sub-category’s visit share dwindled to 38.9%. Over the same period, off–price-apparel chains grew their visit share by 8.1 percentage points, from 39.3% to 47.4%, and the share of visits to thrift shops increased by 3.2%.
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Unsurprisingly, non-off-price apparel chains have traditionally attracted more affluent consumers than either off-price retailers or thrift stores. And throughout the analyzed period, the captured market of non-off-price apparel retailers continued to feature a median household income (HHI) that was significantly higher than the nationwide baseline, while the captured markets of off-price chains and thrift stores featured median HHIs below the nationwide median.
But the three segments were impacted differently by shifts in consumer behavior in the wake of the pandemic. In early 2020, all three sub-categories experienced significant dips in the affluence of their captured markets. But while thrift shops saw an immediate HHI rebound, non-off-price apparel chains – and even more so off-price retailers – have yet to see the affluence of their visitor bases return to 2019 levels.
Foot traffic data also reveals an interesting divide in the household composition of visitors to the three segments: While the income profiles of off-price apparel shoppers are more akin to those of thrifters, their household composition is closer to that of visitors to non-off-price apparel stores.
The potential markets of all three categories, for example, featured similar shares of one-person households in 2023. But their captured markets were quite different – with singles over-represented for thrift stores, and under-represented for off-price and non-off-price apparel stores. This indicates that thrifters hail disproportionately from Census Block Groups (CBGs) that feature higher-than-average shares of one-person households. And visitors to off-price and non-off-price retailers come from the CBGs within the trade areas of these chains that feature smaller-than-expected concentrations of one-person households. Given the special appeal thrift shops carry for demographics like college students, it may come as no surprise that singles are among their best customers.
For families with children, on the other hand, more traditional apparel retailers hold sway: Visitors to off-price and non-off-price apparel stores were more likely to come from areas with higher concentrations of families with children in 2023, while thrifters were more likely to come from areas with smaller ones.
Economic headwinds and evolving consumer preferences have left their mark on the shifting relationship between different sub-categories within the fashion industry. But what does 2024 have in store for the sector? Will cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence lead to an increase in visit share for non-off-price favorites? And will more parental households make the pivot to thrift stores?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
2023 was a challenging year for many restaurant operators as persistent inflation caused many would-be diners to rethink going out for a bite to eat. Today, we take a closer look at three fast-food and fast-casual dining chains – McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Panda Express – to see what – and who – is driving visits to these restaurants.
McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Panda Express each boast thousands of locations across the country. And a closer look at the three chains’ trade areas, analyzed using the STI: Popstats dataset, reveals differences in visitors across each dining chain. The median household income (HHI) of the three chains’ trade areas differed both on a nationwide average basis and when diving into individual states.
Chipotle consistently drew in visitors coming from higher-income trade areas – its nationwide median HHI stood at $75.9K/year. In contrast, Panda Express’ trade area had nationwide median HHIs of $68.2K/year, and McDonald’s, known for its affordability, had a trade area median $61.2K/year, respectively. And these trends persisted across all analyzed states, including New York, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida, with Chipotle drawing visitors from the highest-income areas, followed by Panda Express and then McDonald’s.
The past few years have seen consumers shifting their dining patterns as the pandemic with its more flexible schedules and drop in office attendance led many to adjust when, and where, they went out to eat. And though some pre-COVID habits have now returned, other consumer behaviors have proved to be stickier.
For example, McDonald’s saw a significant drop in its share of early morning and lunch visits between 2019 and 2021, likely a result of fewer workers heading into the office and grabbing a coffee or Big Mac for a pick-me-up. But 2023 saw breakfast visits ticking back up, growing from 15.9% to 16.7% YoY, perhaps driven by a gradual return to in-person work.
Meanwhile, Panda Express, which also saw lunchtime visits drop in 2021 – but visits between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM have steadily increased since and almost reached pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Midday visits also increased while dinnertime (7 PM to 10 PM) visits decreased slightly – perhaps thanks to the chain’s recent focus on building out its to-go options, which allows customers to pick up dinner on their way home instead of heading out to dine on-premises.
Like the other two chains, Chipotle also experienced a decline in lunchtime visits in 2021 – but unlike Panda Express, the lunchtime rush at Chipotle has yet to return in full force, with the share of visits between 11 AM and 2 PM just 36.2% in 2023 compared to 40.0% in 2019. At the same time, mid-afternoon (3 PM to 6 PM) visits picked up, which may be due to the chain’s relatively high prices compared to the other two chains leading some consumers to stick with lower-cost afternoon snacks instead of full meals. And evening visits have also increased since COVID, perhaps driven by the wider QSR trend towards more late-night visits and by some consumers choosing to visit Chipotle for their main meal of the day instead of splurging on an on-the-go lunch.
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McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Panda Express have managed to find their own niche within the crowded and competitive world of quick-service and fast-casual dining. Will their success continue into 2024?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
For grocery stores, last year held plenty of challenges – from high food-at-home prices to increased competition from non-traditional grocery players like dollar stores and superstores. But 2023 also offered the segment plenty of opportunities. Discount chains made a strong showing – and customers spent more time browsing grocery aisles, loading up on essentials and making every trip to the store count.
But which grocery brands were most popular in 2023? Did large national chains dominate the scene, or did regional and local banners also have a role to play? And what can foot traffic analytics tell us about some of the broader trends that shaped brick-and-mortar grocery shopping last year?
We dove into the data to find out.
The nation’s most-visited grocery banner in 2023 was Kroger, which captured almost 19% of annual foot traffic to the nation’s ten most-frequented grocery chains. Safeway, owned by Albertsons, also made the top ten list.
But significantly, several regional chains also garnered significant nationwide visit share – including Texas cult-favorite H-E-B, midwestern Meijer, and East Coast Food Lion and ShopRite. Aldi, the no-frills budget chain that keeps prices low by offering a limited inventory of mainly private-label products, emerged as the fourth most-visited grocery store in the country. And fan-favorite Trader Joe’s, also known for its high-quality own-label merchandise, drew 6.5% of visits to the top ten brands.
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And drilling down deeper into the data for each of the fifty states shows that each region of the country had its own local favorite. Kroger banners – including Kroger, Smith’s, King Soopers, Dillons, Fry’s Food Stores, Fred Meyer, and Pick n’ Save – topped the charts in 14 states. In one of these (Oregon), Kroger’s Fred Meyer was tied for first place with Safeway, an Albertsons banner. In addition to Oregon, Albertsons banners took the lead in nine more states, mainly in the Western region of the U.S., while Ahold Delhaize banners ranked first in seven Northeast and South Atlantic states. And a variety of more local chains held sway throughout much of the Midwest and parts of the South.
Who were the shoppers driving visits to brick-and-mortar grocery stores in 2023? Location intelligence shows that overall, visitors to grocery chains last year tended to come from areas with slightly higher median household incomes (HHIs) than the nationwide average. Less affluent consumers, perhaps, were more likely to seek out lower-cost grocery alternatives like dollar stores. At the same time, there remained significant HHI gaps between chains, likely reflective in part of regional differences.
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And comparing the overall median HHI of grocery chains’ captured markets to that of previous years reveals a small but distinct decline in the relative affluence of likely grocery visitors, from $76.2K in 2019 to $73.8K in 2023. Over the same period, the share of “Flourishing Families” in the chains’ captured markets (A psychographic segment encompassing affluent middle-aged families and couples) decreased slightly, while the share of “Singles and Starters” increased.
These shifts may be partially due to the more widespread adoption of online grocery shopping among certain audience segments in the wake of COVID. While ecommerce only accounted for an estimated 7.2% of grocery spending as of May 2023 – with high delivery fees continuing to deter many Americans from going the online route – higher-HHI consumers may be particularly willing to prioritize convenience over price.
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For grocery stores, 2023 was all about value – with many customers flocking to discount chains and going out of their way to maximize savings. Still, traditional mainstays like Kroger and Albertsons continued to capture the biggest pieces of the grocery pie.
What does 2024 have in store for the grocery space? Will shoppers place less emphasis on savings as inflation continues to ease? And which chains will emerge as nationwide and regional winners?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
While brutally cold weather blasts much of the continental U.S. this week--including the Midwest, Deep South, and Montana--one might just dream about moving to the balmy shores of Hawaii, where temperatures have been hovering in the high 70s of late. Besides being home to the Ala Moana Center, the most-visited open-air shopping center in the US over the holidays, there is also constant redevelopment and improvement occurring on the island of Oahu.
For instance, the International Market Place on Kalakaua Ave, once known for decades as a touristy collection of kiosks, has upped its game and now boasts a Tesla showroom and a Balenciaga store at its entrance. Were it not for the commanding Banyan Tree that has been preserved, one would hardly recognize this iteration of the shopping venue compared to 10 years ago. Since it re-opened in early 2017, traffic has steadily been climbing. Hawaii tourism was hit hard by COVID in Spring 2020, but by July 2021 we begin to see a marked increase, to be repeated and exceeded in subsequent Julys as well. The summer of 2023 boasts a record in traffic originating from domestic visitors for the International Market Place.
Just down the street is the Royal Hawaiian Center, which encompasses three separate buildings that are connected by skywalks. Since its opening in 1980, it too has seen numerous changes, though its commitment to sharing the spirit of Aloha remains the same. The food options are extensive and come from all corners of the globe, such as Wolfgang’s Steakhouse, Tsurutontan Udon Noodle, Tim Ho Wan dim sum, and Wicked Maine Lobster. There was a massive spike in visitation in July 2021, which has since decreased a bit, but is still above pre-COVID levels.
There are definitely some unique, only-in-Hawaii treats, such as the shaka waffle ice cream cone at Kokoro Cafe at the Royal Hawaiian Center.
The other notable shift at the Royal Hawaiian Center is the bountiful array of luxury shopping available. From Hermes to Fendi, Harry Winston to Tiffany, designer showcases beckon from the street as well as from the interior corridors.
When we last checked in on the home furnishing retail category, we noted that we had started to see a divergence among several of the various subcategories, with houseware retailers seeing great visits year-over-year relative to furniture retailers. At the time, we hypothesized that housewares were outperforming because of several reasons, including (1) consumers’ willingness to spend around holiday periods last year due to post-pandemic home entertaining trends; (2) the departure of Bed Bath & Beyond and other retailer from the market driving visits to other housewares retailers; and (3) urban residential migration trends among younger families increasing demand for houseware trends. The divergence in visitation trends continued through the back half of 2023, with housewares continuing to outperform through December.
One of the home furnishing subcategories that flew under the radar in 2023 is mattresses. As shown above, this retail category didn’t quite keep pace with houseware retail visit trends, but outperformed value and full-priced furniture. What’s behind this outperformance? For starters, our data indicates that migration trends may play a role. We reviewed visitation trends for pure-play mattress retailers across the top 25 CBSAs in the U.S. (ranked by population) during the Black Friday promotional period (early November 2023 to early December 2023) and found that several of the top performing markets–New York, San Francisco, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit–had seen total population declines since the pandemic (according to Placer's Migration Trends Report) but also experienced a rebound in population growth this past summer, creating increased demand for mattresses. However, population trends continued on a downward trajectory in the second half of 2023 in a number of these markets, indicating this demand may not be sustainable.
What should home furnishing retailers expect in 2024? From a year-over-year visitation standpoint, we expect the subcategories to remain roughly the same in terms of rankings through the first half of the year, with housewares continuing to lead, followed by mattresses, value furniture, and then full-priced furniture. Continued migration trends across the U.S.--especially smaller markets–should continue to stimulate demand for housewares and mattresses (although Temu and other online retailers will also compete for houseware spending in the year ahead). Migration trends should also create demand for value furniture retailers, as should new smaller-format and smaller-market store openings from IKEA and others. Full-priced furniture will continue to face headwinds in the form of elevated mortgage rates (compared to last year), sluggish new housing development trends, and stagnant housing turnover, suggesting that visitation trends could be challenged for much of 2024 (despite facing easier comparisons).
What does 2024 hold for malls and shopping centers? We dove into the data to unearth the trends likely to shape the space in the coming year.
The move towards greater tenant diversity in malls shaped the shopping center space in recent years, and the trend appears set to be taken to the next level in 2024. Placemaking – crafting public spaces that go beyond utilitarian needs to foster social interaction and exchange – is at the forefront of many urban development initiatives, and the trend is already boosting retail performance in successful placemaking projects.
Fenton, a mixed-use district in Cary, N.C., opened in June 2022. The project showcases the potential of placemaking to transform an underutilized space into a vibrant “live-work-play” community with something for individuals and families of all ages. The retail and entertainment village includes shops, restaurants, seasonal attractions, entertainment venues, and other diverse offerings that are establishing Fenton as a community hub and a prime destination for residents. Visits were up 53.2% between July and December 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, while median dwell time increased from 64 to 83 minutes.
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Across the country, in Phoenix, AZ, Park Central Mall – the state’s first open-air shopping center – was also redesigned as a mixed-use development Park Central. The complex includes restaurants, office space, medical facilities, and bioscience research labs, with more hospitality and housing under construction. And although the project first reopened in 2019, visits to the revitalized Park Central continue to grow – between 2022 and 2023, foot traffic to Park Central increased by 32.8% while median dwell time grew from 75 to 80 minutes.
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In 2023, malls attracted relatively high income shoppers – and as the trend is likely to continue in 2024, with high-income shoppers displaying significantly stronger consumer confidence than their middle- and low-income counterparts.
Households in the potential market trade areas of Indoor Malls, Open-Air Lifestyle Centers, and Outlet Malls tended to have higher incomes relative to the nationwide median – and the median HHI was even higher in the malls’ captured market trade area. This means that many of these malls are located within relatively affluent communities (hence the relatively high potential market median HHI) and attract the higher-income shoppers within those areas (as shown by the even higher captured market median HHI).
With middle-income shoppers expected to tighten their budgets in 2024, high-income consumers will likely remain a significant share of mall-goers in 2024 as well.
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Malls used to be the place for teens to hang out on weekends – and it looks like shopping centers are once again attracting younger generations of consumers. Between 2019 and 2023, the share of “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” in the captured market trade areas of Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls increased. At the same time, the share of older segments – “Suburban Boomers” and “Sunset Boomers” – decreased.
As Gen-Z shoppers rediscover physical stores and increasingly seek out the mall-going experience, the share of younger consumers visiting shopping centers may well grow larger in the upcoming year.
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Last year’s ongoing inflation brought a unique set of challenges to a brick-and-mortar space still recovering from the pandemic’s impact. But 2023 ended with a surge in consumer confidence, and 2024 may well bring a positive shift to malls and the wider retail landscape. And shopping centers – especially those that offer a diversity of experience and succeed in catering high-income and/or younger shoppers – can take advantage of the opportunities in the year ahead.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
