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The multi-billion dollar beauty industry has proved to be one of the most resilient retail categories over the past few years – and Ulta Beauty has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend, reporting record growth and experiencing strong foot traffic to its stores.
We dove into the location intelligence data for Ulta to analyze recent foot traffic performance, explore seasonal trends, and better understand the chain’s visitor base.
The past few years have seen Ulta’s monthly foot traffic growing on a near-constant basis – and 2023 was no exception. Year-over-year (YoY) visits to the chain were up by double digits most months and Ulta consistently outperformed the wider Beauty & Spa segment. The company’s success appears poised to continue in 2024, with January 2024 visits up 4.9% relative to the already impressive January 2023, even as foot traffic to the wider Beauty & Spa category dipped.
The consistent foot traffic growth Ulta experienced in 2023 and early 2024 is particularly impressive given that 2022 was also a banner year for the brand – meaning that foot traffic has exceeded the previous years’ growth for two years straight. And the company seems to be capitalizing on its success by further enhancing its shopping experience, expanding its presence with new stores, and emphasizing wellness offerings at existing locations to keep its customers coming back.
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Charting the change in monthly foot traffic to Ulta helps visualize the chain’s seasonal visit patterns and highlight the company’s consistent upward climb since the 2021 retail reopening. The COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns led to a steep drop in foot traffic, but visits picked up – and stayed up – as soon as social-distancing restrictions eased. And though inflation replaced the pandemic as an economic concern, Ulta visits continued on their upward climb, highlighting the broad appeal the chain offers to shoppers of all economic levels.
Ulta also enjoys significantly elevated visits during the holiday season, with foot traffic surging every December. And visits to the chain, even without a holiday spike, continue to exhibit growth – January 2024’s visits were 43.3% higher than they were in January 2019.
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While December may be the month that Ulta sees the most visits, there are plenty of other minor holidays and retail opportunities that contribute to foot traffic spikes to the retailer. And although Valentine’s Day isn’t a holiday in the official sense of the word, Ulta still enjoyed a mid-week boost in visits on Wednesday, February 14th 2024.
Visits to Ulta grew 17.2% on Valentine’s Day compared to traffic of the previous six Wednesdays. February 14th 2024 also saw 10.5% more visitors to Ulta than the day did in 2023, signaling a continued, growing interest in the beauty retailer.
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Ulta has taken pains to carry products for consumers of all ages, genders, and backgrounds –and recently, one age group in particular has been making headlines for its interest in beauty and skincare. Teens and tweens have been flocking to their local malls to try out products from brands like Drunk Elephant, driven, in part, by the rise of #BeautyTok, where influencers on TikTok post their makeup and skincare routines.
And indeed, trade area data indicates that families of all types are overrepresented among Ulta’s visitor base: Analyzing the psychographic makeup of Ulta’s trade areas using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset revealed that the chain’s captured market* includes more family segments when compared to the chain’s potential market*. Specifically, the chain’s captured markets had higher rates of “Near-Urban Diverse Families”, “Upper Suburban Diverse Families”, and “Wealthy Suburban Families” relative to the chain’s potential market. On the flip side, “Young Urban Singles” saw a smaller share of visitors in Ulta’s captured market than in its potential market.
Ulta’s popularity with family segments may be due to the increased demand for skincare and makeup among the families’ younger generations. And by continuing to cater to these younger consumers – alongside the numerous other segment that shop at Ulta – the company can hope to foster long-term brand loyalty and continue driving sales and foot traffic to its stores.
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*A chain’s potential market refers to the population residing in a given trade area, where the Census Block Groups (CBGs) making up the trade area are weighted to reflect the number of households in each CBG.. A chain’s captured market weighs each CBG according to the actual number of visits originating to the chain from that CBG.
Ulta continues to impress, growing its sales and foot traffic even during a uniquely challenging period for the average consumer. By creating a shopping experience that is accessible to people across all ages and income levels, the company ensures that its visits can continue to grow.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
First Watch has been around for over 40 years and is famous for being open from morning to early afternoon and a revolving menu that leans into seasonal ingredients. In recent years, the casual cafe – which derives its name from the nautical term for the first shift of the day – has made significant waves. The chain went public in 2021 and continues to drive consistent revenue and foot traffic – despite a stormy economic climate. We dove into the data to take a closer look at the consumer behavior behind First Watch’s success and understand where the chain could be heading in 2024 and beyond.
The Early Advantage
At First Watch, brunch and lunch join breakfast as the most important meals of the day. And while some of the chain’s competitors are open all day – or even all night – sticking to limited business hours has not steered the brand off course. Analysis of First Watch’s H2 2023 foot traffic compared to the wider breakfast-first category shows that First Watch’s monthly year-over-year (YoY) visits consistently outperformed the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, and Dessert Shops space as a whole.
Some of the chain’s success is due to its expanding store fleet, with visits during the last five months of 2023 up by double digits compared to the equivalent months in 2022. And the chain is likely to rise even further in 2024 and beyond, with CEO Christopher Tomasso seeing continued expansion on the horizon.
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Indeed, looking at more recent data shows that First Watch’s growth is continuing even relative to the already strong 2023, with foot traffic to the chain up YoY and outperforming the wider Breakfast, Bakeries & Dessert Shops space every week of 2024 so far.
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The Next Voyage
C.E.O. Tomasso is determined to stay “true to who we are and what we’ve done regardless of how big we get.” And one way First Watch has stayed true to its identity is by being attentive to the preferences of its target audience. When customers wanted cocktails as a way to unwind with friends over brunch – First Watch delivered. And location intelligence can help identify the next consumer trend to drive the brand’s continued success.
Trade Area Analysis of First Watch in Q4 2023 using the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset revealed that “Food Label Readers”, “Organic Foodies”, and “Vegans” were overrepresented in the restaurant’s trade areas compared to the nationwide benchmark. This indicates that First Watch’s commitment to fresh ingredients resonates with clientele that prioritize a healthy diet. Meanwhile, the data also showed that these consumers were likely to be involved in various forms of exercise; “Fitness Fans”, “Joggers”, “Pilates People”, and “Weight Lifters” were also prevalent psychographic segments in First Watch’s trade area.
This suggests that First Watch might consider exploring uncharted waters by adding smoothies or post-workout shakes to its menu, or by opening smaller-format locations in fitness centers to better serve its health-conscious audience.
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Land Ho!
First Watch has enjoyed smooth sailing through a commitment to bringing diners a fresh take on breakfast, brunch, and lunch. As long as this ship stays anchored in its identity, First Watch should find that the wind is at its back for the foreseeable future.
For updates and more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Whether it’s an at-home yoga practice, a workout at the gym, or a sports league at the park, the biggest players in the sporting goods space – Hibbett Sports and DICK’s Sporting Goods – have the gear to keep a variety of consumers outfitted. Armed with the latest location intelligence data, we took a closer look at these retailers’ recent offline performance and analyzed some of the psychographic characteristics of visitors to DICK’s and Hibbett’s.
Last year started off strong for DICK’s Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports, with visits to both retailers up in Q1 2023 relative to the equivalent quarter in 2022. But ongoing inflation and tighter consumer budgets weighed on visits as the year progressed, and foot traffic to DICK’s and Hibbett dipped slightly year-over-year (YoY) in the second half of the year. Still, in spite of the challenges, both brands succeeded in keeping their visits close to 2022 levels and maintaining minimal visit gaps.
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The strong Q1 2023 combined with unusually cold weather were likely partially to blame for DICK’s and Hibbett’s sluggish early 2024 performance. But by the end of January, YoY visit gaps had narrowed for both brands – a promising sign for the year ahead.
Who is likely to visit these brands in 2024? We looked at the retailers’ trade area composition to find out.
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Analyzing DICK’s and Hibbett’s trade area using the Spatial.ai: Proximity dataset revealed that both brands were positioned to drive traffic from two significant fitness-related psychographic segments at the end of 2023.
In Q4 2023, “Yoga Advocates” as well as fans of “Functional Fitness” were overrepresented in DICK’s and Hibbett’s trade area relative to the nationwide average. And DICK’s and Hibbett are investing heavily in getting these consumers in the door. DICK’s debut of a new functional fabric and ad campaign for its CALIA clothing line and Hibbett’s new joint loyalty program with Nike could provide an extra foot traffic boost from fitness-forward consumers as 2024 progresses. As temperatures thaw and demand rebounds, these consumers are likely to play a part in a foot traffic resurgence for both brands.
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But while certain sporty audience segments seem to visit both brands, diving deeper into DICK’s and Hibbett’s trade areas using the Spatial.ai: Followgraph dataset also revealed differences between the two retailers’ offline consumer base.
For example, the share of “Hunting Enthusiasts” in DICK’s trade area was 8% smaller compared to the nationwide average, while Hibbett’s trade area included 20% more “Hunting Enthusiasts” than the prevalence of the segment nationwide. Meanwhile, the “Triathlon Participants'’ segment was overrepresented in DICK’s potential market – 4.0% above the national average – and underrepresented in Hibbet’s potential market (8.0% below). These differences suggest that the sporting goods space is big enough to accommodate multiple players at the top, with leading retailers each carving out their own slice of the market.
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So Much Potential
After a relatively rocky end to 2023, foot traffic appears to be on the upswing for both DICK’s and Hibbett early on in 2024. The prevalence of fitness-minded and sporting consumers in the trade areas of both brands could provide a continued foot traffic lift in the weeks and months ahead.
For updates and more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
In the U.S., one can find many different dishes that incorporate a range of culinary traditions: Kogi truck introduced us to the joy of putting short ribs and vinaigrette slaw in a corn tortilla, topped off with a distinctly Korean salsa made of Korean chiles, rice wine vinegar, and scallions; Banh mi po’ boys combine the best of Vietnamese and Louisianan tradition; Lime and jalapeno-topped yellowtail sashimi hearkens to both Japanese and Peruvian lineages.
In Los Angeles, the LA Times takes readers on a culinary journey to the world of Black Tacos, where lines can reach 3 hours at Worldwide Tacos as one chooses from unique protein options like lamb, salmon, crab, and duck and mouthwatering flavor combinations like jerk, curry, pina colada, blueberry with blue cheese and raspberry chipotle.
While often anchored with a traditional corn tortilla, Black tacos also incorporate flavors and techniques from soul food, such as versions that use barbeque sauce, yams with wild rice, ground turkey, pulled pork, or hot honey catfish.
Alta Adams has its own take on Black tacos with a jerk-spiced sweet plantain taco. Nestled within a homemade corn tortilla, one will find caramelized plantain, mango-habanero salsa and chopped onion and cilantro. In 2022, the Hollywood Reporter named this spot “Black Hollywood’s Top Restaurant for Power Dining.” This restaurant is a popular evening destination, as patrons sip their inventive cocktails well into the night and see if they might catch a glimpse of Jay-Z or John Legend.
At the Smithsonian’s National Museum of African American History and Culture, the entire month of February was dedicated to “African Americans and the Arts” and the impact of African Americans on visual arts, music, cultural movements, and more. From the BLM Movement to Harlem Hellfighters, Hip Hop and Rap to Musical Life at HBCUs, a rich cornucopia awaits. Per Spatial.ai PersonaLive, among those who visited in the past 6 months, when we look at those comprising 70% of visits, nearly 3 in 10 are Educated Urbanites, as well as a healthy dose of Young Professionals, Near-Urban Diverse Families, and Ultra Wealthy Families.
The museum also attracted a broad cross-section of different ethnicities.
Discount & Dollar stores thrived in 2022 and 2023, as inflation drove many shoppers to trade down and seek out cheaper retail alternatives. But how has the category continued to fare in the new year? Have stabilizing prices led shoppers away from discount chains? Or have dollar stores cemented their position as go-to retailers even when money isn’t quite as tight?
We dove into the data to find out.
Over the past two years, Discount & Dollar Stores have emerged as major disruptors, diversifying both their offerings and their price points – and the category leaders’ continued visit growth suggests that this strategy is helping the chains build significant strength. By investing in private label food items and stocking fresh produce at thousands of locations, Dollar General has established itself as a prime low-cost grocery destination. Family Dollar, owned by Dollar Tree, has also made strong inroads into the supermarket scene, with everything from fruits and veggies to cage-free eggs. Dollar Tree has also broadened its grocery selection to include an array of chilled and frozen foods.
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In January 2024, Discount & Dollar Stores saw a further increase in year-over-year (YoY) visits, building upon the category’s impressive post-COVID gains. Most of the analyzed category leaders also saw YoY visit jumps – no small feat given these retailers’ strong 2022 and 2023 performance.
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Zooming out on the longer-term visitation trajectories of leading discount chains shows just how well positioned the category remains for continued success. Compared to a January 2020 pre-COVID baseline, visits to Dollar General and Dollar Tree were up 24.3% and 14.0%, respectively, in January 2024. While these foot traffic increases were undoubtedly fueled in part by the continued expansion of the chains’ footprints, they highlight strong and growing demand for the category’s bargain fare.
The chains’ visit patterns also reveal clear seasonality in visitation patterns to leading Discount & Dollar Stores, with the chains emerging as holiday shopping destinations. Dollar Tree, which continues to price most items at $1.25, experiences more pronounced seasonal peaks, with visits spiking during the holiday season. And though Dollar General has firmly positioned itself as a year-round destination for essential goods, it too sees foot traffic spikes in December.
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The emergence of Discount & Dollar chains as affordable venues for much-needed necessities has been a major factor in the segment’s success. But the category’s strong positioning as a key holiday shopping player has also helped solidify its place in the nation’s retail landscape.
And looking at monthly fluctuations in the median household income (HHI) of Discount & Dollar Stores’ captured markets shows a subtle but distinct HHI spike during the peak holiday season – meaning that the category draws its audiences from slightly more affluent areas during this all-important time of the year. This trend may be a further indication of the mainstreaming of dollar stores – with higher-HHI consumers especially likely to seek out their bargain-priced quality merchandise in the runup to Christmas.
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Since COVID, Discount & Dollar Stores have solidified their position as mainstream shopping destinations for everything from basic food items to home goods and party supplies. And if January 2024 is any indication, you can bet your bottom dollar on the category’s continued strength heading into the new year.
Follow Placer.ai for more data-driven retail analyses.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The full-service dining segment has experienced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with pandemic-era closures, rising food and labor costs, and cutbacks in discretionary spending contributing to visit lags. In 2024, visits were down 0.2% year over year (YoY) and remained 8.4% below 2019 levels – a reflection of the significant number of venues that permanently closed over COVID and a testament to the industry's ongoing struggle to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Yet, even in a difficult environment, some full-service restaurant (FSR) chains are thriving. These brands aren’t waiting for the industry to rebound – they're becoming trendsetters in their own right, proving that stand-out strategy is everything in a challenging market.
This white paper explores brands that are harnessing three key differentiators – fixed-price value offerings, elevated social experiences, and a laser focus on product – to drive full-service dining success in 2025.
One of the most defining trends over the past few years has been the unrelenting march of price increases. And as consumers continue to seek out ways to save, some chains are staying ahead of the pack with fixed-price value offerings that help diners squeeze out the very best bang for their buck.
Golden Corral, the all-you-can-eat buffet chain that lets kids under three eat for free, is one FSR that is benefiting from consumers’ current value orientation. Despite closing several locations in 2024, overall visits to the chain still tracked closely with 2023 levels, declining by just 0.5% – while the average number visits to each Golden Corral restaurant grew 3.8% YoY.
Golden Corral’s value proposition is resonating strongly with budget-conscious Americans eager to enjoy a wide variety of comfort foods at an affordable price. The chain’s visitors tend to come from trade areas with lower median household incomes (HHIs) than traditional full-service restaurant (FSR) diners. And these patrons are willing to travel to enjoy the chain’s value buffet offerings, many of which are situated in rural areas and may require a longer drive. In 2024, 25.2% of Golden Corral’s diners came from over 30 miles away – compared to just 19.2% for the wider FSR segment.
Golden Corral’s continued flourishing proves that in an era of rising costs, diners are willing to go the extra mile (literally) for a restaurant that delivers both quality and affordability.
Children’s party space and eatertainment destination Chuck E. Cheese has had a transformative few years. Following the retirement of its iconic animatronic band, the chain shifted its focus to a new membership model, announcing a revamped Summer of Fun pass in May 2024 – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. The pass proved incredibly popular, with YoY visits surging by 15.6% in May 2024, when the offer launched – a sharp turnaround from the YoY visit declines of the previous months. Recognizing the strong demand, Chuck E. Cheese extended the program year-round – and the strategy has paid off as YoY visits remained positive through the end of 2024.
A closer look at the data suggests that parents are making full use of their unlimited passes: The share of weekday visits was higher in H2 2024 than in H2 2023, likely due to families using their passes for weekday entertainment rather than reserving visits for weekends and special occasions.
At the same time, the share of repeat visitors – those frequenting the chain at least twice a month – also grew. Although these repeat visitors may not purchase additional gameplay beyond the flat fee, their more frequent on-site presence likely translates into increased sales of pizza and other menu items.
While value has been a major motivator for restaurant-goers in recent years, low prices aren’t the only drivers of FSR success. Brands offering unique experiences aimed at maximizing social interaction are also seeing outsized gains.
Though many of these more innovative venues tend to be on the more expensive side, they draw enthusiastic crowds willing to pony up for concepts that combine good food with fun social occasions. And some of the more successful ones bolster perceived value through offerings like fixed-price menus or club memberships.
Korean cuisine has been on the rise in recent years, with restaurants like Bonchon Chicken and GEN Korean BBQ House making significant waves in the dining space. Another chain drawing attention is KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot, which began modestly in 2018 and has since expanded to over 150 locations nationwide.
Diners at KPOT can customize their meals by selecting from a variety of proteins, broths, sauces, and side dishes, known as banchan, while barbecuing or cooking in a hotpot at their table and sipping on the drinks from the menu’s extensive selection. And though pricier than Golden Corral, KPOT also offers an all-you-can-eat experience that lets customers squeeze the most value out of their indulgence.
Location intelligence shows that KPOT’s experiential dining model is resonating with customers: Since Q4 2019, the average number of visits to each KPOT location has risen steadily – even as the chain has grown its footprint – while the average dwell time has also increased. Indeed, rather than a quick dining stop, KPOT has become a destination for guests to linger, enjoying both food and drinks – and an interactive and social experience.
By positioning themselves as gathering places for fine wine aficionados, wine-club-focused concepts such as Postino WineCafe and Cooper’s Hawk Winery are also benefiting from today’s consumers’ emphasis on social experiences. The two upscale dining destinations offer club memberships that combine periodic wine releases with a variety of perks.
And the data suggests that the model is strongly resonating with diners. Both Postino and Cooper’s Hawk have grown their footprints over the past year, driving substantial YoY chain-wide visit increases while average visits per location grew as well – showing that the expansions and experiential offerings are meeting robust demand.
And analyzing the two chains’ captured markets shows that the wine club model enjoys broad appeal across a variety of audience segments.
Unsurprisingly, both wine clubs’ visitor bases include higher-than-average shares of affluent consumers with money to spend, including Experian: Mosaic’s “Power Elite”, “Booming with Confidence”, and “Flourishing Families” segments (the nation’s wealthiest families, as well as affluent suburban and middle-aged households). But the two chains also attract younger, more budget-conscious consumers – Postino, which has many downtown locations, is popular among “Singles and Starters”, while Cooper’s Hawk is popular among “Promising Families” - i.e. young couples with children.
The success of the two brands across various segments underscores the impact of a distinctive experience – especially when paired with a loyalty-boosting membership – in attracting today’s consumers.
Value offerings and unique experiences have the power to drive restaurant visits – but ultimately, a good meal in an inviting atmosphere is a draw in and of itself, as is shown by the success of First Watch and Firebirds Wood Fired Grill.
Breakfast-only restaurant First Watch excels at ambiance and menu innovation, changing up its offerings five times a year and striving to maintain a neighborhood feel at each of its locations.
First Watch has made a point of leaning into its strengths, eschewing discounts in favor of a consistently elevated dining experience and doubling down its strongest day part (weekend brunch), rather than trying to artificially drive up interest at other times.
And the strategy appears to be working: In 2024, visits to First Watch increased 6.6% YoY – with Saturdays and Sundays between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M. remaining its busiest dayparts by far. Visitors to First Watch also tend to linger over their meals more than at other breakfast chains – in 2024, the restaurant experienced an average dwell time of 54.9 minutes, significantly longer than the 48.7-minute average at other breakfast-focused restaurants.
By focusing on what matters most to its diners – innovative and exciting food and a welcoming atmosphere that allows patrons to enjoy their meals at a leisurely pace – First Watch is continuing to flourish.
Another chain that is growing its footprint and its audience on the strength of a menu and ambiance-focused approach is Firebirds Wood Fired Grill. The chain, known for its “polished casual” vibe and bold, unique flavors, added several new restaurants last year, leading to a 6.5% increase in overall visits. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Firebirds location held steady – showing that the new restaurants aren’t cannibalizing existing business.
The chain’s success may rest, in part, on its locating its venues in areas rife with enthusiastic foodies. Data from Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph shows that in 2024, Firebird’s trade areas had significantly higher shares of “BBQ Lovers”, “Gourmet Burger Lovers,” and “Foodies” than the nationwide average. This suggests that Firebirds is attracting diners who prioritize the experience of eating – key for a chain that prides itself on putting good food first. The chain is also known for its welcoming decor and design – another aspect that may lead to its strong visit success.
Necessity often serves as the mother of invention, and challenging economic periods continue to spark new trends and innovations in the dining scene. From a heightened focus on value – drawing families and lower-HHI consumers willing to travel for a good deal – to the growing appeal of social dining and the timeless draw of good food – new trends are emerging to meet changing consumer expectations.
Stadiums and arenas – and the communities they call home – have a stake in cultivating engaged team fanbases eager to participate in live events. And venues and teams can employ a variety of strategies to strengthen their connection with fans and draw crowds to the stands.
In this report, we leverage location analytics and audience segmentation to uncover some of the ways that sports franchises and venues are driving engagement – attracting visitors from farther away and appealing to fans more likely to splurge on stadium fare. How does the signing of a star athlete impact arena visitor profiles? What happens to stadium visitation trends when a team’s performance improves dramatically? And how can teams and venues tailor their offerings to more effectively cater to visitor preferences?
We dove into the data to find out.
In sports, the signing of a star athlete can have a ripple effect across the organization, hometown, and league. In addition to driving up overall attendance at games, star power can impact everything from visit frequency to audience profile – and the buying power of stadium attendees.
Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami CF after decades of European play brought a foot traffic boost to Chase Stadium (formerly DRV PNK Stadium). But it also shifted the demographics of stadium visitors and increased the distance they traveled to attend a game.
At Inter Miami’s 2022 and 2023 home openers without Messi (he joined the team mid-season in 2023), only 6.4% and 5.3% of visitors to Chase Stadium came from over 250 miles away. But for the 2024 home opener with Messi on the squad, 31.3% of stadium visitors traveled more than 250 miles to attend.
The demographics of visitors at the home opener also changed with Messi on the team. Trade area data combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset reveals that the 2024 home opener received a smaller share of households in the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” (11.2%) and “Young Urban Singles” (7.2%) segments than the two previous years. Meanwhile, shares of “Sunset Boomers” (13.0%) and “Ultra Wealthy Families” (20.1%) increased, indicating that Messi brought an older and more affluent demographic of visitors to the stadium compared to previous years. Messi’s arrival has generated increased revenue for Inter Miami CF, Major League Soccer, and Apple TV+, which has exclusive streaming rights for MLS games. And an influx of affluent out-of-town visitors also has the potential to drive positive outcomes for tourism and employment in the Miami area.
Caitlin Clark’s WNBA debut was another star-powered game changer – this time for women’s basketball. After dazzling the sports world during her college basketball career, Caitlin Clark was drafted first overall to the Indiana Fever before the 2024 WNBA season. The superstar’s arrival has had a staggering economic impact on the city of Indianapolis and the Fever franchise, highlighting the benefit of a top athlete within the local community. However, Clark’s stardom also had a far-reaching impact on the league as a whole, adding tremendous value to the WNBA. Trade area analysis reveals that several WNBA arenas saw an uptick in visitor affluence when hosting the Fever with Clark in the lineup – likely driven in part by the elevated ticket prices associated with her appearances.
When the Minnesota Lynx hosted the Fever on July 14th, 2024, for example, the median HHI of Target Center’s captured market shot up to just over $93K/year, well above the median HHIs for the games immediately before and after that event. (A venue’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the venue’s visitor base.) Similarly, the Fever’s away game against the Connecticut Sun on May 14th, 2024 at Mohegan Sun Arena drove a higher audience median HHI ($103.6K/year) than either of the Sun’s next two home games.
Having a superstar on the roster can drive positive outcomes locally and league-wide – but overall team success is the ultimate goal for any franchise. So it may come as no surprise that stadiums and arenas can drive engagement when their home teams perform well on the field or court. And teams that reverse their fortunes often spark even greater excitement, boosting visitor loyalty, visit duration, and other key metrics.
The Baltimore Orioles had one of the worst records in baseball just a few years ago. But since 2022, the team has flipped the script – stringing together winning seasons and postseason berths. And location intelligence shows that as the team finds success, fans are becoming more engaged with their hometown stadium.
During the 2019 regular season, one of the worst for the club in recent history, stadium attendance suffered, with only 8.3% of visitors to Oriole Park at Camden Yards visiting the stadium at least three times. But during the 2024 regular season, Oriole Park’s share of repeat visitors (those who visited at least three times) was almost double 2019 levels (16.3%) – consistent with a sharp increase in sales of multi-game ticket packages.
In addition to attending games more often, visitors to Oriole Park also appear to be spending more time at the ballpark. During the 2019 regular season, visitors spent an average of 150 minutes at the stadium, but in 2024, the average time at the park increased to 178 minutes – potentially boosting ancillary spending and in-stadium advertising exposure. The increased dwell time of visitors is particularly noteworthy when considering that MLB’s rule changes have significantly shortened average game time.
The more engaged fandom engendered by team success not only impacts stadium visitor behavior, but also has the potential to drive revenue. The Orioles added 20 new corporate sponsors before the 2024 season, likely due to the attention garnered by the well-performing club.
The NFL’s Detroit Lions provide another example of team success that has driven visitor engagement. As the franchise has improved its record in recent years, the trade area size of its stadium – Ford Field – has also increased, indicating elevated attendance from fans living further away.
The Lions finished the regular season with losing records from 2019 to 2021, but finished over .500 in 2022 (9-8), 2023 (12-5), and 2024 (15-2). And with the team’s increasing wins each consecutive season, the size of its stadium's trade area has also increased steadily – reaching 81.3% above 2019 levels in 2024.
This underscores just how much team success matters to fans, who may be more inclined to travel longer distances if they believe their team is likely to win. Ultimately, broader fan engagement across a wider trade area also increases a team’s growth potential beyond in-stadium attendance – driving merchandise sales, increasing viewership, and benefitting both the team and the league as a whole.
While stadium attendance and visitor behavior is often correlated to the performance of the sports teams that play in the arena, sporting venues can also drive fan engagement in ways that aren’t solely tied to team success or big-name athletes. By adapting their concessions and venue operations to visitor preferences, stadiums and arenas can better serve their audiences and strengthen their community presence.
Consumers have been feeling the pinch of rising food costs for quite some time, but at least one NBA team has responded to make concessions at the game more affordable for fans. In December 2024, the Phoenix Suns announced a $2 value menu for all home games at Footprint Center – delivering steep discounts on hot dogs, water, soda, and snacks.
Location analytics suggest that since the value menu launch, more fans who would have otherwise waited until after leaving the venue to grab a bite are now enjoying food and drinks inside the arena. Analysis of five Suns home games just before the value menu launch – between November 26th and December 15th, 2024 – reveals that between 7.0% and 9.3% of stadium visitors visited a dining establishment after leaving the arena. But following the value menu launch before the December 19th, 2024 home game, post-game dining decreased to under 6.0% through the end of the year.
Suns owner Mat Ishbia’s announcement of the new menu called out the need for affordable food options for families at Suns games. As the season progresses, the new menu may drive a larger share of family households to Suns games, which could provide opportunities for advertisers and other stadium partners.
Consumers in Washington – and especially Seattle – are known for their affinity for plant-based diets and environmentally-friendly lifestyles. And that goes for local football fans as well: Audience segmentation provided by the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset combined with trade area data reveals that during September to December 2024, households within Lumen Field’s potential visitor base were 36% more likely to be “Environmentally Conscious Buyers” and “Environmental Contributors” and 39% more likely to be “Vegans” compared to the nationwide average. By contrast, across all NFL stadiums, potential visiting households were 2%, 1%, and 3% less likely, respectively, to belong to these segments.
And Lumen Field has been actively catering to these consumer preferences. The stadium, which has been experimenting with plant-based culinary options for quite some time, was recently recognized as one of the most vegan-friendly stadiums in the NFL. And in December 2024, Lumen became the second stadium in the league to achieve TRUE precertification for its efforts to become a zero-waste venue.
By remaining aligned with its visitor base – including both football fans and people that visit the stadium for other events – Lumen Field encourages visitors to feel at home at their local stadium. And fans may be more connected to their team knowing the club shares their values and respects their lifestyle.
Stadiums and arenas can leverage a variety of strategies to engage visitors in attendance as well as wider audiences. Signing a star athlete, putting together a winning club, or adapting to local preferences are just some of the ways that sports franchises and athletic venues can find success.
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
