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Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar – Bloomin’s most upscale concept – posted year-over-year visit growth in Q4 2025, while elevated-casual chain Bonefish Grill also sustained traffic gains. Both brands draw disproportionately from higher-income trade areas: Bonefish and Fleming’s captured market median household incomes are $88.0K and $102.6K, respectively, compared with a nationwide median of $79.6K, according to STI: Popstats 2024.
By contrast, Outback Steakhouse saw largely flat traffic in Q4 2025, while Carrabba’s Italian Grill recorded a 3.7% year-over-year decline in visits. These brands attract diners from trade areas with median household incomes closer to the national average – $79.7K for Outback and $82.9K for Carrabba’s.
The traffic trends combined with the trade-area income patterns suggest Bloomin’s brand performance mirrors broader industry dynamics. As consumers remain selective with discretionary spending – particularly on dining out – traffic is increasingly concentrated among higher-end destinations offering a clear “value-plus-experience” proposition or casual chains with a well-defined value proposition. Meanwhile, undifferentiated casual dining brands continue to lag.
Against this backdrop, Outback Steakhouse’s flat to slightly negative same-store traffic through much of H2 2025 reflects its positioning within the more challenged segment of casual dining rather than a lack of strategic focus. Management has outlined plans to sharpen the Outback's value proposition through improvements in food quality, guest experience, and operational consistency – steps designed to better position Outback with diners seeking greater value and differentiation in 2026.
Taken month by month, the data suggest that Bloomin’ Brands’ higher-end concepts benefited from both stronger underlying demand and greater flexibility in capturing discretionary spend. Meanwhile core casual brands remained more exposed to year-end pressure.
Bonefish Grill’s same-store traffic showed episodic strength – most notably in October – indicating periods of solid unit-level demand even as momentum softened into the holidays. Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, by contrast, delivered its strongest gains on an overall traffic basis, pointing to system-level growth and traffic concentration that helped offset more uneven same-store performance.
Meanwhile, Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s Italian Grill saw declines deepen into December across both metrics. This dip underscores the heightened vulnerability of traditional casual dining concepts during the holiday season, when increased competition for discretionary spending tends to pressure lower-differentiated dining occasions.
Looking ahead to 2026, Bloomin’ Brands appears positioned to benefit as stabilizing consumer conditions intersect with ongoing brand-level investments. With higher-end concepts demonstrating resilience and Outback’s repositioning efforts underway, the portfolio is better aligned to capture both experience-driven and value-oriented dining demand.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
What should restaurant operators expect in 2026? Like much of the consumer sector, 2025 was an up-and-down year for the industry. The year started out on a strong note, but visitation trends quickly turned volatile amid uncertainty over tariff news and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. With the threat of higher prices, it’s no surprise that consumers became hyper price sensitive as the year progressed, resulting in a clear bifurcation in trends among diners.
On one hand, affluent consumers – who generally take their spending cues from the health of the stock and housing market – continued to visit more upscale and fine dining chains. Meanwhile, lower and middle income consumers pulled back from QSR and fast casual restaurant chains that they perceived as expensive. This set up a challenging development for many restaurant operators, as consumers traded out of traditionally lower-priced restaurant channels for substitutes across other food retailers. This trend continued for much of the year until McDonald’s and others introduced more value-oriented promotions with pop-culture tie-ins (which we discussed here).
Heading into 2026, where does the restaurant category stand? We’ve highlighted three key trends that restaurant operators, executives, and investors should consider.
As mentioned above, traditionally lower-priced restaurant channels generally had a challenging 2025 headlined by increased competition with other food retailers like value grocers like Trader Joe’s and Aldi, food-forward convenience stores like Wawa, Sheetz, Buc-ee’s, and Casey’s, and warehouse clubs like Costco and Sam’s Club (which have increasingly attracted younger visitors in recent years). In fact, our data suggests a substantial increase in the percentage of QSR visitors also visiting Aldi – and while some of the increase may be attributed to Aldi's expansion, the rise in cross-visitation trends also underscores this competitive encroachment.
While certain players like Taco Bell were able to hold their ground against other food retail competitors, others – like McDonald’s – needed the boost from special promotions like the launch of its Extra Value Meal in September 2025 to win back value-focused consumers.
We’ve already covered some of the key ways that QSR chains plan to wield promotional strategies in 2026, including a focus on freebies, pop-culture tie-ins, sequencing, and storytelling. We’re already seeing some evidence of this with Taco Bell’s Luxe Value Menu featuring 10 menu items priced at $3 or less. However, with several key events taking place in 2026, including the Winter Olympics and World Cup, there will be more opportunities for QSR chains to amplify their value messaging. We may not quite see the return of the Value Wars of 2024 given ongoing input cost inflation pressures, but given the success that McDonald’s and Taco Bell have seen, it’s apparent that value messaging will be critical in 2026.
As macroeconomic and inflationary uncertainty increased throughout 2025, restaurants’ primary competition shifted from other chains to alternative food retail channels, including value grocers, convenience stores, warehouse clubs, and dollar stores. Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright noted this trend on the company’s Q3 2025 earnings conference call as well. While Chipotle noted pressure among customers under $100K in household income from July-September, our data also indicated a major shift in the behavior of fast casual restaurant consumers in trade areas between $100-$125K for much of the second half of 2025.
Where did these consumers go? Like for QSR chains, we believe visits were impacted by a combination of factors – including a shift to differentiated food retailers like Trader Joe’s. Below, we see the percentage of fast casual visitors that also visited Trader Joe’s has increased significantly over the past five years. Like for Aldi, some of this can be attributed to Trader Joe’s expansion plans, but we believe that some visitors have chosen to substitute some fast casual lunch visits for value grocers.
After years of outperforming the industry, these high-growth brands face a "convenience plateau." The price gap between fast-casual and casual dining narrowed to the point where consumers began questioning the value of a $16 bowl eaten at a counter versus a $20 sit-down meal. To win back these consumers in 2026, fast-casual brands must reinvest in the physical experience. This means moving away from "ghost kitchen" vibes and back toward inviting dining rooms, while simultaneously fixing the "mobile order friction" that has made many store lobbies feel chaotic and impersonal.
Both QSR and fast casual chains looking to win back middle-income visitors who have traded down to at-home dining will need to move beyond the $5 value meal. The winners in 2025 realized that value is a calculation of price combined with innovation. McDonald’s "Grinch Meal" and various "limited-time" spicy chicken iterations proved that consumers are willing to spend if the product feels like a unique event. In 2026, restaurants must continue this trend, using "innovation-led value" to justify the discretionary spend of a household that is increasingly selective.
One of the standout stories of 2025 was the continued strength of casual dining giants like Chili’s. Building on the momentum gained in 2024 with the "Big Smasher" burger and clear value messaging (like the "3 for Me" deal), Chili’s didn't just win new customers – it kept them. Data shows that same-store visits to Chili's were up every month of 2025 despite the tough comparison to an already strong 2024.
Observing Chili's successful resurrection through its aggressive "3 for Me" platform and direct antagonism toward fast-food pricing, rivals like Applebee's and Red Robin are frantically adopting the same playbook to win back budget-conscious diners. These chains have largely abandoned complex culinary innovations in favor of simplifying operations and launching hard-hitting tiered meal deals – often priced between $10 and $12 – designed to explicitly undercut the rising cost of a "Big Mac" combo.
By pivoting their marketing to highlight that a sit-down meal with unlimited sides now costs less than a drive-thru visit, competitors are validating Chili's core thesis: the new battleground for casual dining isn't service or ambiance, but proving they are the superior economic alternative to the quick-service sector.
Ultimately, 2026 will be defined by precision rather than broad-stroke expansion. The 'rising tide' era of post-pandemic growth is over; simply opening doors in high-growth Sunbelt markets or offering a generic discount is no longer enough to guarantee traffic. To succeed in this increasingly saturated and price-sensitive environment, operators must execute a delicate balancing act: aggressively defending their value proposition to fight off grocery competitors, while simultaneously reinvesting in the in-store experience to justify the visit. Whether it is through the tactical 'sequencing' of limited-time offers, the aggressive tiered pricing of casual dining, or the revitalization of physical dining rooms, the winners of 2026 will be the brands that give consumers a distinct, irrefutable reason to choose dining out over staying in.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The U.S. grocery sector is increasingly polarized. Traffic and growth are concentrating at the far ends of the quality-savings spectrum, where retailers with clear, disciplined value propositions are pulling ahead. Meanwhile, grocers that sit in the middle – or only weakly signal what they stand for – are struggling to keep pace.
This analysis builds on the insights from dunnhumby's U.S. Retailer Preference Index (RPI) for Grocery.
As the chart below illustrates, visit growth is diverging significantly across grocery formats, with success concentrated at both ends of the quality-price spectrum.
Savings-first retailers such as Aldi have been thriving consistently since 2023, with year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth generally outpacing that of the wider grocery category. Quality-first non-conventional chains like Sprouts Farmers Market have also done well, particularly in 2025 – though their performance lagged behind savings-first chains for much of 2023 and 2024.
But arguably the most consistently impressive performers – with slightly lower YoY growth most months but less volatility over time – have been the so-called “Unicorns”, including chains such as Trader Joe’s and H-E-B that defy grocery’s traditional quality-price tradeoff through extreme focus. By limiting assortments or going all-in on specific geographic areas, these retailers funnel profits back into innovation within their core missions, inspiring deep customer loyalty and creating a virtuous cycle that steadily improves the quality-savings equation.
Middle-of-the-road chains, by contrast, have consistently trailed the pack, struggling to gain traction in a market that increasingly rewards clear, decisive positioning.
But not every chain can be a Unicorn – hence the moniker. And between savings-first and quality-first chains, several indicators (beyond their more consistent YoY growth) suggest that savings-first grocers may be better positioned for long-term growth.
One such signal comes from cross-shopping behavior. In 2025, the share of visitors to Grocery Outlet Bargain Market who visited another grocery store either immediately before or after their trip declined YoY – indicating that more shoppers are treating the savings-first retailer as a primary grocery destination rather than a secondary or fill-in stop. A similar pattern emerged at Unicorn Trader Joe’s.
Quality-first chain Natural Grocers, by contrast, saw a higher and growing share of visitors arriving from another grocery store or heading to one directly afterward, suggesting it is more often part of a multi-stop shopping pattern rather than the first or only trip. As value-oriented chains become more complete grocery solutions, they are capturing a growing share of intentional, first-stop visits, reinforcing their role as everyday essentials rather than complementary alternatives.
Another indication of savings-first retailers’ special growth potential is the rising affluence of their customer base.
While savings-first grocery stores have not yet reached Unicorn status, their assortments have moved well beyond bare-bones essentials, and they are no longer fully trading quality for value. Expanded private-label offerings, improved fresh selections, and tighter SKU curation increasingly emphasize quality alongside cost. And as perceived quality gaps have narrowed, median household income in these retailers’ trade areas has increased – rising from $72.5K in 2022 to $73.1K in 2025. This shift suggests savings-first grocery chains are gaining access to higher-income shoppers who once defaulted to premium formats, expanding both their addressable market and runway for growth.
By contrast, quality-first grocery chains, which serve the most affluent consumers, have seen median household income in their trade areas fluctuate in recent years – rising between 2022 and 2023 before declining thereafter. While this softening could indicate some broadening of their customer base, these formats are built around narrowly defined, premium missions, which may limit the extent to which such broadening can translate into scalable growth. As a result, their path to expansion may be more constrained than savings-first retailers’ upward reach.
As price sensitivity rises and perceived quality differences narrow, the retailers winning today are those with the clearest answers to a simple question: Why shop here instead of anywhere else? And in today’s market, being essential beats being special – unless you can convincingly be both.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Economic pressures created a challenging backdrop for the QSR space in 2025. Many consumers adjusted their dining-out habits, leading to uneven foot traffic across the category. Within this environment, AI-powered location intelligence suggests that Yum! Brands – the parent company of Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill – has been comparatively well positioned. We dove into the data for a closer look at how Yum! and its portfolio performed in 2025 and the most recent Q4.
Although limited-service restaurants faced headwinds in 2025, Yum! Brands appeared to stay ahead of the pack. As a whole, the company's portfolio – QSRs plus the smaller Habit Burger & Grill – posted year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth in every quarter, outperforming the broader QSR category, which recorded YoY visit declines during much of the year.
Beyond value and compelling menu innovation, convenience and ease of experience remain central to why consumers choose limited-service chains. To reinforce its advantage, Yum! has spent the past year expanding its suite of AI-driven technology tools across its brands – platforms designed to optimize restaurant operations, delivery, and digital ordering. The company has even pointed to its proprietary software as an enabler of daily menu drops and viral promotions, reinforcing the other two critical motivations for limited-service diners: craveability and value. As these tools roll out to more locations, the data suggests Yum!’s competitive edge could continue.
An analysis of foot traffic across Yum! Brands’ portfolio highlights which concepts are driving the company’s visit gains. Pizza Hut and Habit Burger & Grill recorded YoY monthly overall visit and same-store visit growth in most of Q4 2025 – indicating that underlying demand remains intact despite heightened volatility in the current economic environment.
Of the four brands, however, Taco Bell remains Yum!’s primary driver of growth. The brand delivered the largest and most consistent YoY monthly overall visit and same-store visit growth throughout Q4 2025 – with National Taco Day promotions and the return of Cheesy Dipping Burritos likely contributing to elevated traffic.
Meanwhile, KFC experienced month-to-month visit gaps throughout Q4 2025 while mustering nearly flat same-store visits. This could suggest that while the brand has consolidated its footprint, existing locations see sufficient demand to support a broader turnaround strategy.
Even as economic pressures continue to reshape how consumers engage with limited-service dining, Yum! Brands appears well positioned to navigate ongoing uncertainty. A combination of operational investment and consumer-facing innovation suggests the company’s portfolio has built a durable foundation to support evolving market conditions.
Want more restaurant industry insights? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Saks Global’s Chapter 11 filing reflects a convergence of balance-sheet pressure and evolving consumer behavior rather than a sudden collapse of its brands or customer relevance. Following the acquisition of Neiman Marcus in late 2024, the company carried a significantly higher debt load, which reduced financial flexibility at a time when the broader luxury department store sector was facing uneven demand.
But while a missed interest payment was the immediate catalyst for the bankruptcy filing, traffic data suggests that the challenges facing Saks Global extended beyond balance-sheet constraints. AI-powered traffic data shows that Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus were underperforming most major department stores both on average visits per venue and on rates of repeat visitors already in H1 – before supplier relationships became more visibly strained. So even if inventory constraints and vendor caution likely amplified these trends in H2, the data suggests that softer consumer engagement with these chains was also due to earlier challenges in delivering an experience that consistently brought shoppers through the door.
(Kohl’s is a notable exception – while it underperformed Neiman Marcus on year-over-year visits per venue in H1, the banner still maintained the highest rate of repeat visitation by far, pointing to a more resilient customer base that can help cushion short-term traffic volatility).
Analyzing in-store behavior at Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus relative to other premium department stores is also revealing. Both banners skew more heavily toward midday and weekday visits than Nordstrom or Bloomingdale’s, a pattern that suggests a greater reliance on proximity- and convenience-driven traffic rather than by planned destination trips.
In contrast, Nordstrom and Bloomingdale's capture more visits during evenings, and weekends – times typically associated with browsing, social shopping, and occasions when shoppers are more willing to spend time in-store. These visit patterns reinforce the idea that Saks and Neiman Marcus are currently attracting more “pop-in” visits than experience-led ones.
Looking ahead, Saks Global’s path out of bankruptcy depends on repairing its balance sheet while rebuilding in-store experiences that support destination-driven shopping. To remain competitive, the company will need to restore consistent inventory, sharpen merchandising curation, and reinvest in service and experiences that encourage planned visits rather than incidental stop-ins.
At the same time, the data suggests a clear framework for rationalizing the footprint. Underperforming locations are likely those that skew heavily toward weekday, midday, and low-frequency visits, signaling reliance on proximity rather than loyalty or experience. These stores may struggle to justify continued investment, particularly if they sit in markets with limited repeat demand or weak engagement relative to peers. By using traffic trends, visit timing, and repeat behavior to guide closure or consolidation decisions, Saks Global can emerge from bankruptcy with a smaller but healthier store base – one aligned around markets where the brand can reclaim its role as a destination. In that sense, bankruptcy offers not just a financial reset, but a chance to refocus the business around the stores and experiences most likely to drive sustainable, long-term demand.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Rising travel, lodging, and theme park costs are reshaping how people spend their leisure time. Instead of long-distance or high-ticket trips, consumers are increasingly turning to local outdoor spaces – an option that is lower cost, flexible, and repeatable. What began as a pandemic-era adjustment has solidified into a durable behavioral shift, with meaningful implications for retailers, restaurants, real estate owners, and civic leaders.
Visits to local parks remain well above 2019 levels, signaling that outdoor spaces are no longer a temporary substitute for other leisure options but a primary destination in their own right.
Importantly, people are not just showing up more often – they are staying longer. The share of park visits lasting more than 30 minutes has increased meaningfully compared to pre-pandemic norms, indicating deeper engagement rather than quick, utilitarian stops.
This shift elevates parks from passive amenities to active drivers of surrounding economic activity. Longer visits create more opportunities for nearby food, retail, and service businesses to capture spend before and after park usage.
Visits to outdoor retailers also remain mostly above pre-pandemic levels throughout 2025, even as year-over-year performance versus 2024 fluctuates month to month. Stronger comparisons against 2019 – especially during spring and fall – suggest that outdoor retail demand is supported by a structurally larger base of outdoor participation rather than a short-lived rebound. This resilience reinforces outdoor retail as a downstream beneficiary of sustained, lifestyle-driven shifts toward local recreation.
Park visitation patterns have also shifted later in the day. Evening visits – particularly between 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM – now account for a larger share of total traffic than they did in 2019. This reflects broader changes in work schedules, hybrid work adoption, and how people structure leisure around daily routines.
For businesses and municipalities alike, this timing shift is critical. Demand is increasingly concentrated outside traditional daytime hours, which has implications for operating hours, staffing, safety, and programming decisions
The sustained shift toward local, outdoor leisure has broad implications across retail, dining, real estate, and the public sector.
For retailers, especially those tied to outdoor activities or convenience-driven purchases, increased park visitation and longer dwell times translate into more frequent, trip-based shopping opportunities. Proximity to parks, trails, and outdoor corridors matters more as consumers increasingly combine recreation with same-day retail needs.
Dining operators can benefit from the same dynamics. As park visits stretch later into the day, food demand increasingly overlaps with evening meal and snack occasions. Restaurants positioned near parks or along common access routes are well placed to capture post-activity traffic, particularly if hours and menus align with evening usage.
For commercial real estate owners and developers, park adjacency has become a tangible performance factor rather than a soft placemaking feature. Consistent, repeat visitation to nearby outdoor spaces can help stabilize foot traffic for retail and mixed-use assets, especially as consumers pull back from destination-oriented travel and entertainment.
Civic stakeholders also play a central role. Rising visitation – particularly in the evening – raises the importance of lighting, safety, maintenance, and programming that reflect how residents actually use parks today. Well-supported parks not only improve quality of life but also generate economic spillovers for surrounding businesses.
Organizations that align their locations, operating hours, and investment decisions with this reality are best positioned to capture value as leisure continues to localize.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
1. Shoppers are taking more, shorter trips to grocery stores. Over the past 12 months, grocery stores have experienced nearly uniform YoY visit growth. And since COVID, the segment has steadily increased both overall visits and average visits per location – even as average dwell times have consistently declined.
2. Grocery stores are holding ground against fierce competition. Despite growing inroads by discount and dollar stores, wholesale clubs, and general mass retailers like Walmart and Target, grocery stores have maintained their share of the overall food-at-home visit pie over the past several years.
3. Grocery visit share is most pronounced on the coasts. In Q1 2025, grocery stores claimed the majority of food-at-home visits on the West Coast, in parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Mountain Regions, and in Florida and Michigan.
4. Fresh-format, value, and ethnic grocery visit shares are growing at the expense of traditional chains. And in Q1 2025, fresh-format and value grocers outperformed the other sub-segments with positive YoY visit and average visit-per-location growth.
5. Hispanic markets are on the rise. Though the broader ethnic grocery sub-segment was essentially flat YoY in Q1 2025, Hispanic-focused stores recorded increases in both visits and visits per location – and have been steadily growing visits since 2021.
6. Smaller formats for the win. In Q1 2025, smaller-format grocery store locations outpaced mid-sized and larger-format ones, underscoring the power of compact spaces to deliver significant foot traffic gains.
Brick-and-mortar grocery stores face an uncertain market in 2025. Rising food-at-home prices (eggs, anyone?), declining consumer confidence, and increased competition from discounters, superstores, and online shopping channels all present the segment with significant headwinds. Yet even in the face of these challenges, the sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience – growing its foot traffic and holding onto visit share.
What strategies have helped the segment navigate today’s tough market? And how can industry stakeholders make the most of the opportunities in the current market? This report draws on the latest location intelligence to uncover the trends shaping grocery retail in early 2025 – highlighting insights to help key players make informed, data-driven decisions on store formats, product offerings, and more.
The grocery segment has experienced nearly uniform positive year-over-year (YoY) growth over the last 12 months. This sustained performance in the face of inflation and other headwinds highlights the underlying strength of the category.
What is driving this growth? Since 2022, the grocery segment has seen consistent overall visit growth that has outpaced increases in visits per location – a sign that chain expansion has played a key role in the category’s success. But the average number of visits to each grocery store has also been on the rise, indicating that the segment continues to expand without cannibalizing existing store traffic.
At the same time, visitor dwell times have been steadily dropping since 2021. This shift appears to reflect a trend towards multiple, shorter trips by inflation-wary consumers eager to avoid large, costly carts or cherry pick deals across various retailers. Many shoppers may also be placing more bulk orders online and supplementing those deliveries with brief in-store stops for additional items as needed.
The bottom line: Shoppers are taking more grocery trips overall each year, but spending less time in-store during each visit. Operators can respond to this trend by optimizing layouts and promoting “grab-and-go” areas for an even more efficient quick-trip experience.
Visit share data also shows that despite fierce competition from discount and dollar stores, wholesalers, and general mass retailers, the grocery segment has steadfastly preserved its share of the overall food-at-home visit pie.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2025, wholesale clubs and discount and dollar stores increased their share of total food-at-home visits, gains that have come primarily at the expense of Walmart and Target. Meanwhile, grocery outlets have held firm – despite some fluctuations over the years, their Q1 2019 visit share remained essentially unchanged in Q1 2025.
So even as consumers flock to alternative food purveyors in search of lower prices, grocery stores aren’t losing ground – and on a nationwide level, they remain the biggest player by far in the food-at-home shopping space.
Still, grocery store visit share varies significantly by region. On the West Coast, in parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Mountain regions, and in Florida and Michigan, grocery stores accounted for the majority of food-at-home visits in Q1 2025. Oregon (61.6%) and Washington (59.6%) led the pack, followed by Massachusetts (59.2%), Vermont (58.5%), and California (57.9%). Meanwhile, in West Virginia, Arkansas, South Dakota, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and Mississippi, less than 30% of food-at-home traffic went to grocery stores, with more shoppers in these regions turning to general mass retailers or discounters.
Grocery store operators in lower-grocery-share regions may choose to focus on price competitiveness and convenient store locations to capture more foot traffic from competitors in the space.
Which types of grocery stores are thriving the most? The grocery segment is diverse, encompassing traditional grocery chains like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B; budget-oriented value chains such as Aldi, WinCo Foods, Grocery Outlet Bargain Market, and Market Basket; fresh-format specialty brands like Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, and Sprouts Farmers Market; and numerous ethnic grocers.
Examining shifts in visit share among these various grocery store segments shows that traditional grocery still dominates, commanding over 70.0% of total grocery store foot traffic.
Still, over the past several years, traditional grocers have gradually ceded ground to other segments – especially value chains. Budget grocers saw a temporary surge in visits during the panic-buying days of early 2020 – and have been more gradually gaining visit share since Q1 2023. . Fresh-format banners, which lost ground in 2021 after a Q1 2020 bump, in the wake of COVID, have also been on the upswing and appear poised to capture additional visit share in the coming months and years. And though ethnic grocers still account for a relatively small portion of the overall market, they have slightly increased their visit share, reflecting heightened consumer interest in these specialized offerings.
Recent performance metrics point to a bifurcation in the grocery market similar to that observed in other retail categories. In Q1 2025, fresh-format and value retailers – which appeal, respectively, to the most and least affluent visitor bases – saw the greatest growth in both overall visits and average visits per location.
This trend highlights the power of both value and health-focused quality to motivate consumers in 2025. And grocery players that can meet these needs will be well-positioned for success in the months ahead.
One factor fueling fresh-format’s success may be its role as a convenient, relatively affordable midday lunch destination for the remote work crowd.
In Q1 2025, consumers working from home accounted for 20.2% of fresh-format grocery stores’ captured market – a significantly higher share than any other analyzed grocery segment. These stores also tended to be busier midday than the other segments. Remote workers may be stopping by to grab a quick bite – and some may be choosing to do their grocery shopping during their lunch break when stores are less crowded.
This finding suggests an opportunity for grocery operators across all segments to develop or enhance in-store salad bars and quick-serve sections to tap into the lunch rush. Likewise, CPG companies may benefit from developing more ready-made, nutritious meal options that align with these midday dining habits.
Though the broader ethnic grocery category remained essentially flat in Q1 2025, Hispanic-focused grocers emerged as a sub-segment to watch. Both overall visits and average visits per location to these stores have been on the rise since 2021.
This robust demand presents an opportunity for CPG brands and grocers across segments to expand Hispanic-focused offerings, capturing a slice of this growing market.
Finally, store size matters more than ever in 2025. During the first quarter of the year, smaller format grocery store locations (locations under 30K square feet, across different chains) outpaced larger stores with a 3.2% YoY jump in visits, showing that bigger isn’t always better in the grocery store space.
This pattern aligns with the decrease in dwell times noted above – shoppers may be making shorter trips to smaller, more convenient grocery store locations. These quick errands are ideal for picking up a few items to supplement online orders, shopping multiple deals, or sourcing specialty products unavailable at larger grocery destinations. And to lean into this trend, grocery operators might consider testing neighborhood “micro-store” concepts, focusing on curated selections, and offering convenient parking or pickup to match consumer preferences for targeted purchases and quicker trips.
Location intelligence reveals a growing, dynamic grocery landscape which is holding its ground in the face of increased competition. Shorter trips, busier lifestyles, and changing work routines are reshaping in-store experiences. And grocery players that refine their store formats, target both lunch and on-the-go shoppers, and adapt to shifting demographics can position themselves to thrive in this competitive sector. As the market continues to evolve, continuous attention to these changing patterns will be key to maintaining and expanding market share.
1. Elevated visitor frequency could mean that gym-goers are getting more value out of their memberships and are therefore more likely to stay signed up. Between January and March 2025, all of the gym chains analyzed had a higher share of frequent visitors (those who visited about once a week) than in the equivalent month of 2024.
2. Fitness chains at all price tiers need to be strategic about the value they offer and the amenities that can engage budget-conscious consumers. Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, the captured trade area median HHI increased for all fitness subsegments – value-priced, mid-range, and high-end – suggesting that consumers swapped pricier gym memberships for more affordable options.
3. Close attention should be paid to how long visitors spend at fitness chains in order to reduce crowding and bottlenecks. Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, the average visit length increased at value-priced, mid-range, and high-end gyms. Floorplan and equipment improvements could be considered, as well as having trainers available to help gym-goers streamline workouts.
4. Gyms can use hourly visit data to better serve their members or use promotions to stabilize facility usage throughout the day. In Q1 2025, high-end chains received a larger share of morning visits while value-priced and mid-range fitness chains received larger shares of evening visits.
Like many industries in recent years, the fitness sector has experienced significant shifts in consumer behavior. From the rise in home workouts during the pandemic to the strain of hyper-inflation, foot traffic trends to gyms and health clubs have been as dynamic as the consumers they serve.
This report leverages location analytics to explore the consumer trends driving visitation in the fitness space and provides actionable insights for industry stakeholders.
The pandemic drove several shifts in the fitness space. Widespread gym closures led consumers to embrace home-based workouts, while demand for all things fitness increased due to an emphasis on overall health and wellness. This subsequently drove a renewed interest in gym-based workouts as restrictions lifted – even as some consumers remained committed to their home workout routines.
In Q1 2023, visits to fitness chains surpassed Q1 2019 levels for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, a sign that consumers had recommitted to out-of-home fitness. And in Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, fitness chains saw further growth, climbing to 12.8% and 15.5% above the Q1 2019 baseline, respectively.
Several factors have likely driven consumers’ return to gyms and health clubs, including the desire for both social connection and professional-grade facilities difficult to replicate at home. The steep increase in cost of living has likely also played a role, since consumers cutting back on discretionary spending can enjoy multiple outings and a range of recreational activities at the gym for one monthly fee.
Zooming in on weekly visits to the fitness space in Q1 2025 reveals the industry’s exceptional strength and resilience in the early part of the year.
The fitness industry experienced YoY visit growth nearly every week of Q1 2025 (and 2.4% YoY visit growth overall) with only minor visit gaps the weeks of January 20th, 2025 and February 17th, 2025 – likely due to extreme weather that prevented many Americans from hitting the gym.
And the fitness industry’s weekly visit growth appeared to strengthen throughout the quarter, defying the typical waning of New Year's resolutions. This could indicate that gym visits haven't plateaued and that consumers are demonstrating greater commitment to their fitness routines compared to last year.
Diving into visitation patterns for leading fitness chains highlights how increased visitor frequency drove foot traffic growth in Q1 2025.
Fitness chains tend to receive the most visits during the first months of the year as consumers recommit to health and wellness in their post-holidays New Year’s resolutions. And not only do more people hit the gym – analyzing the data reveals that gym-goers also typically work out more frequently during this period. Zooming in on 2025 so far suggests that consumers are especially committed to their fitness routines this year: Leading gyms saw an increase in the proportion of frequent visitors (4+ times a month) in Q1 2025 compared to the already significant percentage of frequent visitors in the first quarter of 2024.
Elevated visitor frequency could mean that gym-goers are getting more value out of their memberships than last year, and are therefore more likely to stay signed up throughout the year.
At the same time, the data also reveals that – contrary to what may be expected – a fitness chain’s share of frequent visitors appears to be independent of the cost of membership associated with the club: Life Time, a high-end club, and EōS Fitness, a value-priced gym, had the highest shares of frequent visitors between January 2024 and March 2025. This suggests that factors other than cost, such as location convenience, class offerings, community, or individual motivation, might be more influential in driving frequent gym attendance.
Segmenting the fitness industry by membership price tiers – value-priced, mid-range, and high-end – can reveal further insights on current consumer behavior around out-of-home fitness.
In Q1 2025, the captured market* median household income (HHI) was higher than the nationwide median HHI ($79.6K/year) across all price tiers – suggesting that even value-priced fitness chains are attracting a relatively affluent audience. This could indicate that gym memberships are somewhat of a luxury and that consumers from lower-income households gave up their gym memberships altogether as they tightened their purse strings.
Analyzing the historical data since Q1 2022 also reveals that the captured market median HHI has risen consistently over the past couple of years with the largest median HHI increase observed in the captured trade areas of high-end fitness chains. This suggests that middle-income households – that are more sensitive to the rising cost of living – likely swapped pricier gym memberships for more affordable options in recent years.
These metrics indicate that fitness chains at all price tiers need to think strategically about the value they offer and the amenities that can engage budget-conscious consumers who are carefully weighing every expenditure.
*Captured trade area is obtained by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) from which the chain draws its visitors according to their share of visits to the chain and thus reflects the population that visits the chain in practice.
Fitness clubs of all types need to manage their capacity to ensure health and safety standards and a positive experience for members. And understanding the average amount of time visitors spend at the gym can help fitness chains at every price point keep their finger on the pulse of their facilities.
Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, the average visit length increased at value-priced, mid-range, and high-end gyms. Value-priced gyms experienced the largest increase in average visit length – from 72.4 minutes in Q1 2022 to 74.0 minutes in Q1 2025 – perhaps due to their relatively lower-income visitors spending more time enjoying club amenities after cutting back on other forms of recreation. Meanwhile, mid-range and high-end gyms experienced relatively modest increases in average visit length, which were higher to begin with – likely due to their ample class and spa offerings and overall inviting, upscale spaces.
Elevated average visit length could mean that visitors are well-engaged and less likely to cancel their memberships. But as overall gym visits are on the rise, fitness chains may want to pay close attention to how long visitors spend at the facility. Floorplan and equipment improvements could be considered in order to reduce bottlenecks, and having trainers available to instruct on equipment usage and workout technique could help gym-goers streamline workouts.
Along with average visit length, understanding the daypart in which they receive the most visits is another way that fitness chains can improve efficiency and prevent overcrowding. And analysis of the hourly visits to fitness sub-segments revealed that some fitness segments receive more morning visits while others are more popular in the evenings.
In Q1 2025, high-end chains received a larger share of visits between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. (19.7%) than value-priced and mid-range fitness chains (11.6% and 11.8%, respectively). Meanwhile, value-priced and mid-range fitness chains received larger shares of visits between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. (21.9% and 22.2%) than high-end chains (16.5%).
Gyms can leverage this data to better serve members, for instance by scheduling more classes during peak hours. Value-priced and mid-range gyms, which saw a larger disparity between shares of morning and evening visits in Q1 2025, might also consider incentivizing off-peak usage through discounted morning memberships or early-bird snack bar deals.
The fitness space appears to be in good shape in 2025. Visits have made a full recovery from the pandemic era and still continue to grow, indicating strong consumer demand for out-of-home workouts. And using location intelligence to analyze the behavior and demographics of visitors to gyms at different price points can help identify opportunities for driving even greater success.
1. Idaho and South Carolina have emerged as significant domestic migration magnets over the past four years. Between January 2021 and 2025, both states gained over 3.0% of their populations through domestic migration. Other Mountain and Sun Belt states – including Nevada, Montana, and Florida – also drew significant inflow, while California, New York, and Illinois experienced the greatest outmigration.
2. Interstate migration cooled noticeably in 2024. During the 12-month period ending January 2025, California, New York and Illinois saw their outflows slow dramatically, while domestic migration hotspots like Georgia, Texas, and Florida saw inflows flatten to zero. A similar cooling trend emerged on a CBSA level.
3. Still, some states continued to see notable relocation activity over the past year. In 2024, Idaho, South Carolina, and North Dakota drew the most relocators relative to their populations. And among the nation’s ten largest states, North Carolina led with an inflow of 0.4%.
4. Phoenix remained a rare bright spot among the nation’s ten largest metro areas. The CBSA was the only major analyzed hub to maintain positive net domestic migration through 2024.
Over the past several years, the United States has experienced significant domestic migration shifts, driven by factors like remote work, housing affordability, and regional economic opportunities. As some areas reap the benefits of population inflows, others grapple with outflows tied to higher living costs and evolving workplace dynamics.
This report dives into the location analytics to explore where Americans have moved since 2021 – and how these patterns began to change in 2024.
Since 2021, Americans have flocked toward warmer climates, expansive natural scenery, and more affordable housing options – particularly in the Mountain and Sun Belt states.
Between January 2021 and January 2025, South Carolina led the nation in positive net domestic migration – drawing an influx of newcomers equivalent to 3.6% of its January 2025 population. (This metric is referred to as a state’s “net migrated percent of population.”) Next in line was Idaho with a 3.4% net migrated percent of population, followed by Nevada, (2.8%), Montana (2.8%), Florida (2.1%), South Dakota (2.1%), Wyoming (2.0%), North Carolina (2.0%), and Tennessee (1.9%). Texas saw positive net migration of just 0.9% during the same period. However, the Lone Star State’s large overall population means a substantial number of newcomers in absolute terms.
Meanwhile, California (-2.2%), New York (-2.1%), and Illinois (-1.9%) experienced the greatest outflows relative to their populations. This exodus was driven largely by soaring housing costs and the rise of remote work, which lowered barriers to moving out of high-priced areas.
Between January 2024 and January 2025, many of the same broad patterns persisted, but at a more moderate clip – suggesting a stabilization of domestic migration nationwide. This leveling off could reflect factors such as rising mortgage interest rates, which dampened home buying and selling, as well as the increased push for employees to return to the office.
Still, South Carolina (+0.6%) and Idaho (+0.6%) remained among the top inflow states. The two hotspots were joined – and slightly surpassed – by North Dakota (+0.8%), where even modest waves of newcomers make a big impact due to the state’s lower population base. A wealth of affordable housing and a strong job market have positioned North Dakota as a particularly attractive destination for U.S. relocators in recent years. And Microsoft and Amazon’s establishment of major presences around Fargo has strengthened the region’s economy.
Meanwhile, California (-0.3%), New York (-0.2%), and Illinois (-0.1%) continued to post negative net migration, but at a markedly slower rate than in prior years. And notably, several states that had been struggling with outflow, such as Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Ohio, and Oregon, began showing minor positive inflow during the same 12-month window. As home affordability erodes in pandemic-era hot spots like the Mountain states and Sun Belt, these areas may emerge as new destinations for Americans seeking lower costs of living.
Zooming in on the ten most populous U.S. states offers an even clearer picture of how domestic migration patterns have stabilized over the past year. The graph below shows a side-by-side comparison of domestic migration patterns during the 36-month period ending January 2024 and the 12-month period ending January 2025.
California, New York, and Illinois saw population outflows slow dramatically during the 12 months ending January 2025 – while domestic migration magnets such as Georgia, Texas, and Florida saw inflow flatten to zero. Meanwhile, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania flipped from slightly negative to slightly positive net migration – incremental upticks that could signal a possible turnaround.
The only “Big Ten” pandemic-era migration magnet to maintain strong inflow in 2024 was North Carolina – which saw a 0.4% influx in 2024 as a result of interstate moves.
A closer look at the top four states receiving outmigration from California and New York (October 2020 to October 2024) reveals that residents leaving both states tended to settle in nearby areas or in Florida.
Among those leaving New York, 37.4% ended up in neighboring states – 21.1% moved to New Jersey, 9.2% to Pennsylvania, and 7.1% to Connecticut. But an astonishing 28.8% decamped all the way to the Sunshine State, trading the Northeast’s colder climate for Florida sunshine.
Similarly, 20.1% of California leavers chose to stay nearby, moving to Nevada (11.5%) or Arizona (8.6%). Another 19.1% moved to Texas, and 8.0% moved to Florida, making it the fourth-largest destination for Californians.
Zooming in on CBSA-level data – focusing on the nation’s ten largest metropolitan areas, all with over five million people – reveals a similar picture of slowing domestic migration over the last year.
Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. – four cities that experienced notable population outflows between January 2021 and January 2024 – saw those outflows flatten considerably. For these metros, this leveling-off may serve as a promising sign that the waves of departures seen in recent years may have begun to subside. Conversely, Houston and Dallas, which both welcomed positive net migration between January 2021 and January 2024, registered zero-net domestic migration in 2024. Atlanta, for its part, remained flat in both of the analyzed periods.
In Miami, however, outmigration persisted at a substantial rate. Despite Florida’s overall status as a domestic migration magnet, Miami lost 2.6% of its population to domestic net migration between January 2020 and January 2024 – and another 1.0% between January 2024 and January 2025. As one of Florida’s most expensive housing markets, Miami may be losing some residents to other parts of the state or elsewhere in the region. Meanwhile, Philadelphia, which lost 0.3% of its population to net domestic migration between January 2021 and January 2024, continued losing residents at a slightly faster pace in 2024 – another 0.3% just last year.
Of the ten biggest CBSAs nationwide, only Phoenix continued to see a net domestic migration gain through 2024 (+0.2%). This highlights the CBSA’s continued draw as a (relative) relocation hotspot even in 2024’s cooling market.
Who are the domestic relocators heading to Phoenix?
From October 2020 to October 2024, the top five metro areas sending residents to the Phoenix CBSA each registered median household incomes (HHIs) of $73K to $98K – surpassing Phoenix’s own median of $72K. This suggests that many of those moving in are arriving from wealthier, often more expensive metro areas – for whom even Phoenix’s high-priced market may offer more affordable living.
Overall, domestic migration patterns appear to have cooled in 2024, reflecting economic and societal trends that have slowed the rush from pricey coastal hubs to more affordable regions. Yet states like South Carolina, Idaho, and North Dakota – as well as metro areas like Phoenix – continue to attract new arrivals, paving the way for evolving regional demographics in the years to come.
