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Grocery stores have been on an upward foot traffic trajectory as of late, and Trader Joe’s – with its cult-like following – is often near the top of the pack.
We dove into the location analytics for the chain, exploring its nationwide performance and visitor trends in its home state of California, to uncover what’s behind the grocer’s ongoing success.
Despite positive signs that food-at-home inflation is stabilizing, many consumers are still feeling the pinch of high grocery costs. And with the help of its wide range of premium-quality, private-label products, Trader Joe’s offers an upscale experience at prices that are attractive to value-conscious grocery shoppers.
Perhaps bolstered in part by several new locations, Trader Joe’s year-over-year (YoY) visit growth has outperformed the wider grocery category every month of 2024 so far. And the chain appears to be doubling down on its expansion strategy, with two dozen new stores planned through the end of 2024.
By continuing to meet consumer demand for value and quality, and through the ongoing expansion of its fleet, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain foot traffic growth in the near future.
In addition to competitive pricing and a growing real estate footprint, examining visitor dynamics in California – Trader Joe’s largest market by far – suggests that the chain may be driving success by becoming more shoppers’ principal grocery destination.
Between January and August 2024, California Trader Joe’s experienced YoY visit growth ranging from 3.2% to 11.1% – while YoY foot traffic to the wider grocery segment ranged from -2.7% to 4.6%. And over the same period, the share of Trader Joe’s visitors that also frequented other leading California grocery chains decreased significantly – indicating that TJ’s is making inroads with some of its toughest competition in the state.
Between January and August 2023, for example, 50.1% of visitors to a California Trader Joe’s also visited Ralphs – a share that dropped to 47.1% during the equivalent period of 2024. Similar patterns could be observed for VONS, Sprouts Farmers Market, and even California’s grocery visit leader, Safeway.
This suggests that a growing percentage of Trader Joe’s shoppers may be relying on the chain for more of their essentials – rather than visiting TJ’s in addition to a traditional grocery store.
Diving deeper into the demographic characteristics of visitors to California Trader Joe’s provides further insight into the consumers driving the chain’s statewide YoY visit gains. Analyzing California TJ’s trade areas with data from STI: PopStats reveals that Trader Joe’s drives an outsized share of visits from singles – living on their own or with roommates.
Between January and August 2024, 26.5% of residents in Trader Joe’s California captured market lived in one-person households – compared to a statewide average of 22.9%. Meanwhile, 10.0% of the trade area residents were from non-family households – well above the state average of 8.0%.
This could be partially due to Trader Joe’s ongoing investment in college town locations, as well as its fail-safe frozen food selection – a winner with novice cooks pressed for time or space for meal-prep. Plus, Trader Joe’s boasts cheerfully-themed, seasonal products that change every few months, which may be particularly likely to resonate with college students that follow seasonal rhythms of their own.
Trader Joe’s continues to shine in the grocery space in part due to ongoing consumer demand for value and the chain’s expansion. And in California, a loyal and disproportionately single audience is a significant driver of foot traffic.
For updates and more grocery foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Bowlero Corporation operates more than 350 bowling alleys nationwide, under a portfolio of brands that includes Bowlero and AMF – the company’s two largest chains. How have the bowling alleys performed this year?
We dove into the data to find out.
A look at year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends shows that after a January weather-induced slump and a lackluster three months between February and April 2024, YoY visits to both Bowlero and AMF Bowling Centers picked up major steam. Beginning in May, the two chains saw consistent monthly YoY visit growth ranging from 8.4% to 21.9%.
Fleet expansions undoubtedly contributed to the chains’ summer traffic jumps – but the visit increases were likely also driven by the reintroduction of Bowlero’s popular summer season pass – redeemable across the company’s portfolio of brands – which entitles customers to two free games daily at a center of their choosing. (A premium version can be used at any of the company’s locations.) The pass, which was valid from May 24th to September 2nd, proved to be such a runaway success this year that the company decided to launch a similar promotion for fall. This year’s record-breaking heat may have also contributed to the bowling alleys’ visit boosts – as consumers sought to cool down with indoor activities.
Bowlero and AMF are owned by the same company, but customers seem to interact with each brand slightly differently. Between January and August 2024, AMF attracted a higher share of frequent visitors than Bowlero – perhaps indicating the brand’s positioning as a destination for more serious bowlers and league participants.
On average, 21.4% of AMF’s visitors frequented the chain at least twice a month during the analyzed period – and 8.4% visited at least four times a month. Meanwhile, Bowlero, which touts itself as a “bowling/dining/nightlife experience,” drew smaller shares of frequent visitors – though 16.5% of Bowlero visitors turned out 2+ times a month on average during the analyzed period, and 5.7% visited at least four times a month.
Bowlero, which attracts more casual bowlers than AMF, is also a destination for families. Between January and August 2024, Bowlero’s captured market featured a higher-than-average share of households with children – 28.5%, compared to 26.5% for AMF and a nationwide baseline of 26.9%.
AMF, for its part, was more popular among singles: During the analyzed period, 28.6% of its captured market was made up of one-person households – more than both the nationwide baseline and that of Bowlero (26.7%).
Still, though Bowlero and AMF attract somewhat different audiences, drilling down further into the psychographic segmentation of their captured markets shows that bowling really is an all-American favorite pastime.
During the analyzed period, Bowlero’s was more likely to attract “Young Professionals” and “Near-Urban Diverse Families” – middle-class families living in and around cities – while AMF was more likely to attract upper-middle class, suburban families (“Upper-Suburban Diverse Families”) and households from “Blue Collar Suburbs”. But despite these differences, both chains attracted consumers from a variety of communities, highlighting their broad appeal.
Will consumers continue frequenting bowling alleys as the weather cools down – and will Bowlero’s autumn season pass be as successful as its summer one?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Recreational retailers – from hobby shops to arts and crafts retailers and bookstores – can play a role in fostering creativity and community.
We took a closer look at several players in the space – including Barnes & Noble, Half Price Books, Hobby Lobby, and Michaes – to see how they are faring as 2024 draws to a close.
One of the biggest challenges traditional brick-and-mortar retailers have faced in recent decades is the rise of online shopping, especially from Amazon – ironically, a company that started as a book retailer. Yet, in 2024, brick-and-mortar bookstores are defying expectations and thriving. Nearly every month this year, chains like Barnes & Noble and Half Price Books have seen more foot traffic at their stores than in 2023.
Despite closing several locations over the past year, Half Price Books experienced significant YoY visit increases between May and August 2024 – with only July seeing a YoY lag likely reflective of the chain’s substantial July 2023 seasonal uptick. Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble – which has been expanding its fleet – saw YoY foot traffic increases ranging from 8.0% to 17.2% throughout the analyzed period. Both chains finished off the summer with impressive 14.3% (Barnes & Noble) and 10.3% (Half Price Books) YoY boosts.
Analyzing monthly fluctuations in visits to the two chains relative to a January 1, 2021 baseline shows just how important both the summer and holiday seasons are for the two bookstores. As brands that cater to both families and college students (see below), Barnes & Noble and Half Price Books see significant annual summer visit upticks in July and August – likely boosted by back-to-school shopping. But particularly for Barnes & Noble, the real magic happens during the holiday season, when people flock to the chain in search of gifts for loved ones.
Bookstores’ strong performance shows that consumers are voting with their feet – embracing the special – and irreplaceable –reading and browsing experience provided by brick-and-mortar stores. And with a strong summer under their belts, Barnes & Noble and Half Price books have every reason to expect a highly successful Q4 2024.
Diving into trade area demographics shows that both Barnes & Noble and Half Price Books appeal to diverse audiences – outperforming nationwide baselines for everything from “Wealthy Suburban Families” to “Young Professionals” (a segment group that includes college students) and “Blue Collar Suburbs”. Still, there are differences between the two chains – offering opportunities for the retailers to tailor their marketing strategies to align with their respective visitors.
Barnes & Noble’s captured market trade area, for example, features a higher share of the middle-class “Near Urban Diverse Families” segment group – while that of Half Price Books features higher shares of the other analyzed segments. The chains’ different audiences can help them strategically curate their book assortments and offer a more tailored experience for their customers – a strategy that Barnes & Noble has placed at the center of its blueprint for growth.
While bookstores have thrived in 2024, craft stores have faced a more mixed performance. Hobby Lobby and Michaels both experienced varying YoY foot traffic trends, with monthly visits tracking closely with 2023’s. Still, August 2024 visits were elevated by 7.9% and 6.0% at Hobby Lobby and Michaels, proving the significance of the back-to-school season.
Weekly visit data further highlights the significant impact of the back-to-school season on craft retailers – which offer both classroom decor and school supplies. As the shopping season kicked in, Hobby Lobby and Michaels both experienced notable increases in foot traffic compared to their year-to-date (YTD) averages.
The week of September 2, 2024 in particular was a strong one across both chains, with visits surging to their highest levels relative to the YTD average. Hobby Lobby experienced an 18.3% surge in visits and Michaels grew by 15.9%. This data emphasizes the critical role seasonality plays in driving traffic to craft retailers, particularly during key periods like back-to-school, when customers are stocking up on supplies. And since the category usually sees its biggest monthly spike during the holiday season (December 2023 visits to Hobby Lobby were 57.7% higher than the 2023 monthly visit average and 52.1% higher at Michaels), the chains seem poised to see more visitors in the coming months. October visits will also likely rise for the two chains, as customers go on the hunt for fall decor.
Hobby and recreational stores have shown resilience and adaptability in 2024, with strong seasonal peaks and diverse customer bases fueling their visits. With the holiday season fast approaching, these companies seem set to continue experiencing foot traffic boosts for the rest of the year.
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
In September 2024, Placer.ai released two white papers: The Healthcare Opportunity in Grocery and Pricing Strategies Driving Restaurant Visits in 2024. Below is a taste of our findings from The Healthcare Opportunity in Grocery – which dove into the data to explore the impact that wellness offerings can have on grocery store visitation patterns.
Today, many grocery stores offer a range of services – from primary and urgent care to dental and mental health care. In addition to providing an important community service, in-store clinics can boost foot traffic at chains, help health providers reach more patients, and allow shoppers to manage their health and home needs in one convenient trip.
Analyzing foot traffic to grocery stores with and without in-store clinics shows that across chains, locations with on-site healthcare offerings drew more visits in H1 2024 than their chain-wide averages.
The Kroger Co., for example, has been a leader in in-store healthcare services since the early aughts. The company introduced its in-store medical center, The Little Clinic in 2003 – and today operates over 225 Little Clinic locations across its Kroger banner, as well as regional chains Dillons, Jay C Food Stores, Fry’s, and King Soopers.
And in H1 2024, the eight Dillons locations with clinics saw, on average, 93.0% more visits per location than the chain’s banner-wide average. Jay C, which offers two in-store clinics, also saw visits to these venues outpace the H1 2024 banner-wide average by 92.9%. For both chains, relatively small overall footprints may contribute to their outsize visit differences: Indiana-focused Jay C operates just 22 locations, all in the Hoosier State, while Kansas-based Dillons has some 64 locations.
But similar patterns, if somewhat less pronounced, could be observed at Kroger (43.0%), Fry’s (19.2%), and King Soopers (16.5%) – as well as at H-E-B (14.5%), which boasts its own expanding network of in-store clinics.
An analysis of household compositions across the potential and captured markets of Kroger-owned stores with and without Little Clinic offerings suggests that families with children are extremely receptive to these services.
In H1 2024, Kroger, King Soopers, Fry’s, Jay C, and Dillons all featured captured markets with higher shares of STI: PopStats’ “Households With Children” segment than their potential ones – highlighting the chains’ appeal for families. But the share of parental households in those stores with Little Clinics jumped significantly higher for all five banners.
The share of families with children in King Soopers’ overall captured market stood at 28.3% in H1 2024, higher than the 27.2% in its potential one. But the households with children in the captured markets of King Soopers locations with Little Clinics was significantly higher – 30.6% – and similar patterns emerged at Jay C, Dillons, Kroger, and Fry’s.
This special draw is likely linked to the clinics' focus on family health services like physicals, nutrition plans, and vaccines. The convenience of being able to take care of healthcare, grocery shopping, and pharmacy needs all in one go makes these stores particularly attractive to parents. And this jump in foot traffic shows the strategic advantage of incorporating healthcare services into the retail environment.
Read the full report here to learn more about the impact of healthcare services on grocery visits and customer loyalty. Are shoppers more or less likely to make repeat visits to grocery stores with healthcare services? And how does the addition of a clinic affect the demographic profile of a grocery store’s captured market?
For more data-driven consumer research, visit our resource library.
2024 has been a good year for fast-casual restaurants. Limited-time offers notwithstanding, rising QSR prices have narrowed the price gap between fast food and the more premium offerings of chains like Chipotle and sweetgreen. And with many fast-casual restaurants upping their convenience games with drive-thrus and other innovations, the distinction between the two segments has become increasingly muddied.
So with summer winding down, we dove into the data to explore segment-level consumer behavior at quick-service and fast-casual restaurants. How are they performing this year? And do consumers still interact differently with the two categories?
We dove into the data to find out.
During the first half of 2024, fast-casual restaurants experienced 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, while QSR held steady with a minor 0.4% uptick. As QSR favorites have gotten pricier, some budget-conscious diners have responded by trading up – embracing elevated fast-casual experiences that hit the sweet spot between quality and affordability.
Drilling down deeper into the data, however, paints a more nuanced picture. On weekends, both QSRs and fast-casual chains experienced positive YoY visit growth (2.1% and 4.0%, respectively) – a significant difference, but not a tremendous one. On their days off, it seems, Americans are opting for a variety of value-oriented indulgences, and both segments are benefiting.
But on weekdays, fast-casual foot traffic grew by 2.8%, while QSR visits declined slightly by 0.2%. As the return-to-office (RTO) continues apace, more affluent office workers may be driving a weekday fast-casual renaissance.
A look at driving distances to QSR and fast-casual restaurants provides further evidence that commuters may be contributing to fast-casual’s weekday YoY visit growth.
In H1 2024, a higher share of QSR visits came from customers hailing from CBGs less than two miles away from the restaurants – suggesting that QSR visitors were more likely to frequent local, neighborhood venues. Meanwhile, a significantly higher percentage of fast-casual visits (63.6%) originated from CBGs between two and 30 miles away, compared to just 56.8% for QSR. These less-local visitors may be stopping by a fast-casual establishment during their lunch break or after work, on days when they commute to the office.
Interestingly, QSRs and fast-casual restaurants drew similar shares of visitors from CBGs more than 30 miles away – perhaps suggesting that when traveling, consumers enjoy frequenting both segments.
Given fast-casual’s higher-quality offerings, it may come as no surprise that these chains tend to attract a more affluent clientele than their QSR counterparts. During the first half of 2024, the Census Block Groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to QSRs (i.e. their captured market) had a weighted median household income (HHI) of $65.7K – compared to $78.0K for fast-casual chains.
But medians only tell a part of the story – and a closer look at the segments’ visitor bases reveals a striking similarity between them: In H1 2024, the two categories’ captured markets featured nearly equal shares of a key demographic – households earning between $75K and $100K per year. This group includes both average-income families and those with a bit more money to spend. (According to STI:PopStats, the nationwide median HHI stands at $76.1K). And the ability of both quick-service restaurants and fast-casual chains to attract these consumers shows that despite their differences, the two segments do overlap – and both have plenty to offer today’s consumers.
Despite still-high prices, consumers are finding room in their budgets for affordable splurges – and fast-casual restaurants and QSRs (at least on weekends) are benefiting. How will the two segments continue to fare in the upcoming holiday season? And will their demographic middle ground expand as the line between the two categories continues to blur?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Walmart-owned Sam’s Club has been investing in its own independent retail media network (RMN) – Sam’s Club Members Access Platform (MAP) – for quite some time. This past summer, the RMN launched opt-in display ads in the “Scan & Go” self-checkout feature on the Sam’s Club mobile app, turning any mobile device into an in-club media channel for the chain.
We dove into the latest location analytics for Sam’s Club to understand how in-store foot traffic could drive the success of Scan & Go ads in the chain’s largest markets.
Scan & Go aims to enhance the shopping experience by suggesting product pairings for already-scanned items. The feature’s high adoption rate and frequent usage among Sam’s Club members contributes to its potential as a highly successful advertising channel. And location data indicates that the feature has the ability to attract a growing number of eyeballs.
Nationwide, Sam’s Club drew 5.1% more unique visitors during the first eight months of 2024, and 6.2% more overall visits, than in the equivalent period of 2023. In Texas, the state with the most Sam’s Club locations, the chain saw even more impressive year-over-year (YoY) unique visitor (6.9%) and visit (7.9%) growth – which could add to the appeal of advertising through Scan & Go in the Lone Star State. Meanwhile, Florida – Sam’s Club’s second-biggest market – saw YoY visit and unique visitor growth slightly below the nationwide baseline. But in the Sunshine State, too, the chain saw significant YoY jumps in visits and unique visitors – and experienced longer average dwell time than the chain’s nationwide average.
Diving into the audience segmentation of Sam’s Club’s trade areas in Texas and Florida reveals how each state offers a unique advertising opportunity to the brand’s retail media partners.
Between September 2023 and August 2024, the Sam’s Club’s Texas captured market had a higher share of families with children (31.1%) than its Florida one (24.7%), highlighting the chain’s greater reach among this demographic in the Lone Star State. But parental households are generally more common in Texas than Florida – and while Sam’s Club’s Texas markets were under-indexed for this demographic compared to the statewide baseline, the chain’s Florida markets were over-indexed for it compared to the Sunshine State’s lower baseline. So for advertisers seeking to reach Florida households with children, Sam’s Club offers a particularly enticing opportunity to do so.
Meanwhile, Sam’s Club’s Texas captured market featured a higher share of “Near-Urban Diverse Families” (8.6%) than the statewide baseline of 6.2%, while the brand’s Florida market had a slightly smaller share of the segment (6.2%) than the statewide baseline (7.3%). Texas Sam’s Club locations, it seems, offer more focused access to this demographic – both in absolute terms, and in relation to statewide baselines.
Looking closely at weekly visitation patterns to Sam’s Club in Texas and Florida provides further insight into the ideal timing for engagement with the brand’s RMN.
Between September 2023 and August 2024, the busiest days at Sam’s Club in both Florida and Texas were Saturdays and Sundays. However, Texas locations had a greater share of its weekend visits between 4:00 PM and 6:00 PM, while Florida saw a greater share of its weekend traffic between 10:00 AM and 1:00 PM.
An understanding of these patterns could help advertisers and Sam’s Club predict the potential for Scan & Go usership at specific times – offering insight into strategies and pricing methods that account for peak visitation times.
At present, Scan & Go display ads are available at all Sam’s Club’s stores, but only to select members – which means the potential engagement and revenue streams driven by the new feature have yet to be fully realized. And as Scan & Go display ads achieve success, the chain may explore additional enhancements to its multi-channel RMN.
For updates and more retail foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
The full-service dining segment has experienced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with pandemic-era closures, rising food and labor costs, and cutbacks in discretionary spending contributing to visit lags. In 2024, visits were down 0.2% year over year (YoY) and remained 8.4% below 2019 levels – a reflection of the significant number of venues that permanently closed over COVID and a testament to the industry's ongoing struggle to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Yet, even in a difficult environment, some full-service restaurant (FSR) chains are thriving. These brands aren’t waiting for the industry to rebound – they're becoming trendsetters in their own right, proving that stand-out strategy is everything in a challenging market.
This white paper explores brands that are harnessing three key differentiators – fixed-price value offerings, elevated social experiences, and a laser focus on product – to drive full-service dining success in 2025.
One of the most defining trends over the past few years has been the unrelenting march of price increases. And as consumers continue to seek out ways to save, some chains are staying ahead of the pack with fixed-price value offerings that help diners squeeze out the very best bang for their buck.
Golden Corral, the all-you-can-eat buffet chain that lets kids under three eat for free, is one FSR that is benefiting from consumers’ current value orientation. Despite closing several locations in 2024, overall visits to the chain still tracked closely with 2023 levels, declining by just 0.5% – while the average number visits to each Golden Corral restaurant grew 3.8% YoY.
Golden Corral’s value proposition is resonating strongly with budget-conscious Americans eager to enjoy a wide variety of comfort foods at an affordable price. The chain’s visitors tend to come from trade areas with lower median household incomes (HHIs) than traditional full-service restaurant (FSR) diners. And these patrons are willing to travel to enjoy the chain’s value buffet offerings, many of which are situated in rural areas and may require a longer drive. In 2024, 25.2% of Golden Corral’s diners came from over 30 miles away – compared to just 19.2% for the wider FSR segment.
Golden Corral’s continued flourishing proves that in an era of rising costs, diners are willing to go the extra mile (literally) for a restaurant that delivers both quality and affordability.
Children’s party space and eatertainment destination Chuck E. Cheese has had a transformative few years. Following the retirement of its iconic animatronic band, the chain shifted its focus to a new membership model, announcing a revamped Summer of Fun pass in May 2024 – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. The pass proved incredibly popular, with YoY visits surging by 15.6% in May 2024, when the offer launched – a sharp turnaround from the YoY visit declines of the previous months. Recognizing the strong demand, Chuck E. Cheese extended the program year-round – and the strategy has paid off as YoY visits remained positive through the end of 2024.
A closer look at the data suggests that parents are making full use of their unlimited passes: The share of weekday visits was higher in H2 2024 than in H2 2023, likely due to families using their passes for weekday entertainment rather than reserving visits for weekends and special occasions.
At the same time, the share of repeat visitors – those frequenting the chain at least twice a month – also grew. Although these repeat visitors may not purchase additional gameplay beyond the flat fee, their more frequent on-site presence likely translates into increased sales of pizza and other menu items.
While value has been a major motivator for restaurant-goers in recent years, low prices aren’t the only drivers of FSR success. Brands offering unique experiences aimed at maximizing social interaction are also seeing outsized gains.
Though many of these more innovative venues tend to be on the more expensive side, they draw enthusiastic crowds willing to pony up for concepts that combine good food with fun social occasions. And some of the more successful ones bolster perceived value through offerings like fixed-price menus or club memberships.
Korean cuisine has been on the rise in recent years, with restaurants like Bonchon Chicken and GEN Korean BBQ House making significant waves in the dining space. Another chain drawing attention is KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot, which began modestly in 2018 and has since expanded to over 150 locations nationwide.
Diners at KPOT can customize their meals by selecting from a variety of proteins, broths, sauces, and side dishes, known as banchan, while barbecuing or cooking in a hotpot at their table and sipping on the drinks from the menu’s extensive selection. And though pricier than Golden Corral, KPOT also offers an all-you-can-eat experience that lets customers squeeze the most value out of their indulgence.
Location intelligence shows that KPOT’s experiential dining model is resonating with customers: Since Q4 2019, the average number of visits to each KPOT location has risen steadily – even as the chain has grown its footprint – while the average dwell time has also increased. Indeed, rather than a quick dining stop, KPOT has become a destination for guests to linger, enjoying both food and drinks – and an interactive and social experience.
By positioning themselves as gathering places for fine wine aficionados, wine-club-focused concepts such as Postino WineCafe and Cooper’s Hawk Winery are also benefiting from today’s consumers’ emphasis on social experiences. The two upscale dining destinations offer club memberships that combine periodic wine releases with a variety of perks.
And the data suggests that the model is strongly resonating with diners. Both Postino and Cooper’s Hawk have grown their footprints over the past year, driving substantial YoY chain-wide visit increases while average visits per location grew as well – showing that the expansions and experiential offerings are meeting robust demand.
And analyzing the two chains’ captured markets shows that the wine club model enjoys broad appeal across a variety of audience segments.
Unsurprisingly, both wine clubs’ visitor bases include higher-than-average shares of affluent consumers with money to spend, including Experian: Mosaic’s “Power Elite”, “Booming with Confidence”, and “Flourishing Families” segments (the nation’s wealthiest families, as well as affluent suburban and middle-aged households). But the two chains also attract younger, more budget-conscious consumers – Postino, which has many downtown locations, is popular among “Singles and Starters”, while Cooper’s Hawk is popular among “Promising Families” - i.e. young couples with children.
The success of the two brands across various segments underscores the impact of a distinctive experience – especially when paired with a loyalty-boosting membership – in attracting today’s consumers.
Value offerings and unique experiences have the power to drive restaurant visits – but ultimately, a good meal in an inviting atmosphere is a draw in and of itself, as is shown by the success of First Watch and Firebirds Wood Fired Grill.
Breakfast-only restaurant First Watch excels at ambiance and menu innovation, changing up its offerings five times a year and striving to maintain a neighborhood feel at each of its locations.
First Watch has made a point of leaning into its strengths, eschewing discounts in favor of a consistently elevated dining experience and doubling down its strongest day part (weekend brunch), rather than trying to artificially drive up interest at other times.
And the strategy appears to be working: In 2024, visits to First Watch increased 6.6% YoY – with Saturdays and Sundays between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M. remaining its busiest dayparts by far. Visitors to First Watch also tend to linger over their meals more than at other breakfast chains – in 2024, the restaurant experienced an average dwell time of 54.9 minutes, significantly longer than the 48.7-minute average at other breakfast-focused restaurants.
By focusing on what matters most to its diners – innovative and exciting food and a welcoming atmosphere that allows patrons to enjoy their meals at a leisurely pace – First Watch is continuing to flourish.
Another chain that is growing its footprint and its audience on the strength of a menu and ambiance-focused approach is Firebirds Wood Fired Grill. The chain, known for its “polished casual” vibe and bold, unique flavors, added several new restaurants last year, leading to a 6.5% increase in overall visits. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Firebirds location held steady – showing that the new restaurants aren’t cannibalizing existing business.
The chain’s success may rest, in part, on its locating its venues in areas rife with enthusiastic foodies. Data from Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph shows that in 2024, Firebird’s trade areas had significantly higher shares of “BBQ Lovers”, “Gourmet Burger Lovers,” and “Foodies” than the nationwide average. This suggests that Firebirds is attracting diners who prioritize the experience of eating – key for a chain that prides itself on putting good food first. The chain is also known for its welcoming decor and design – another aspect that may lead to its strong visit success.
Necessity often serves as the mother of invention, and challenging economic periods continue to spark new trends and innovations in the dining scene. From a heightened focus on value – drawing families and lower-HHI consumers willing to travel for a good deal – to the growing appeal of social dining and the timeless draw of good food – new trends are emerging to meet changing consumer expectations.
Stadiums and arenas – and the communities they call home – have a stake in cultivating engaged team fanbases eager to participate in live events. And venues and teams can employ a variety of strategies to strengthen their connection with fans and draw crowds to the stands.
In this report, we leverage location analytics and audience segmentation to uncover some of the ways that sports franchises and venues are driving engagement – attracting visitors from farther away and appealing to fans more likely to splurge on stadium fare. How does the signing of a star athlete impact arena visitor profiles? What happens to stadium visitation trends when a team’s performance improves dramatically? And how can teams and venues tailor their offerings to more effectively cater to visitor preferences?
We dove into the data to find out.
In sports, the signing of a star athlete can have a ripple effect across the organization, hometown, and league. In addition to driving up overall attendance at games, star power can impact everything from visit frequency to audience profile – and the buying power of stadium attendees.
Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami CF after decades of European play brought a foot traffic boost to Chase Stadium (formerly DRV PNK Stadium). But it also shifted the demographics of stadium visitors and increased the distance they traveled to attend a game.
At Inter Miami’s 2022 and 2023 home openers without Messi (he joined the team mid-season in 2023), only 6.4% and 5.3% of visitors to Chase Stadium came from over 250 miles away. But for the 2024 home opener with Messi on the squad, 31.3% of stadium visitors traveled more than 250 miles to attend.
The demographics of visitors at the home opener also changed with Messi on the team. Trade area data combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset reveals that the 2024 home opener received a smaller share of households in the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” (11.2%) and “Young Urban Singles” (7.2%) segments than the two previous years. Meanwhile, shares of “Sunset Boomers” (13.0%) and “Ultra Wealthy Families” (20.1%) increased, indicating that Messi brought an older and more affluent demographic of visitors to the stadium compared to previous years. Messi’s arrival has generated increased revenue for Inter Miami CF, Major League Soccer, and Apple TV+, which has exclusive streaming rights for MLS games. And an influx of affluent out-of-town visitors also has the potential to drive positive outcomes for tourism and employment in the Miami area.
Caitlin Clark’s WNBA debut was another star-powered game changer – this time for women’s basketball. After dazzling the sports world during her college basketball career, Caitlin Clark was drafted first overall to the Indiana Fever before the 2024 WNBA season. The superstar’s arrival has had a staggering economic impact on the city of Indianapolis and the Fever franchise, highlighting the benefit of a top athlete within the local community. However, Clark’s stardom also had a far-reaching impact on the league as a whole, adding tremendous value to the WNBA. Trade area analysis reveals that several WNBA arenas saw an uptick in visitor affluence when hosting the Fever with Clark in the lineup – likely driven in part by the elevated ticket prices associated with her appearances.
When the Minnesota Lynx hosted the Fever on July 14th, 2024, for example, the median HHI of Target Center’s captured market shot up to just over $93K/year, well above the median HHIs for the games immediately before and after that event. (A venue’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the venue’s visitor base.) Similarly, the Fever’s away game against the Connecticut Sun on May 14th, 2024 at Mohegan Sun Arena drove a higher audience median HHI ($103.6K/year) than either of the Sun’s next two home games.
Having a superstar on the roster can drive positive outcomes locally and league-wide – but overall team success is the ultimate goal for any franchise. So it may come as no surprise that stadiums and arenas can drive engagement when their home teams perform well on the field or court. And teams that reverse their fortunes often spark even greater excitement, boosting visitor loyalty, visit duration, and other key metrics.
The Baltimore Orioles had one of the worst records in baseball just a few years ago. But since 2022, the team has flipped the script – stringing together winning seasons and postseason berths. And location intelligence shows that as the team finds success, fans are becoming more engaged with their hometown stadium.
During the 2019 regular season, one of the worst for the club in recent history, stadium attendance suffered, with only 8.3% of visitors to Oriole Park at Camden Yards visiting the stadium at least three times. But during the 2024 regular season, Oriole Park’s share of repeat visitors (those who visited at least three times) was almost double 2019 levels (16.3%) – consistent with a sharp increase in sales of multi-game ticket packages.
In addition to attending games more often, visitors to Oriole Park also appear to be spending more time at the ballpark. During the 2019 regular season, visitors spent an average of 150 minutes at the stadium, but in 2024, the average time at the park increased to 178 minutes – potentially boosting ancillary spending and in-stadium advertising exposure. The increased dwell time of visitors is particularly noteworthy when considering that MLB’s rule changes have significantly shortened average game time.
The more engaged fandom engendered by team success not only impacts stadium visitor behavior, but also has the potential to drive revenue. The Orioles added 20 new corporate sponsors before the 2024 season, likely due to the attention garnered by the well-performing club.
The NFL’s Detroit Lions provide another example of team success that has driven visitor engagement. As the franchise has improved its record in recent years, the trade area size of its stadium – Ford Field – has also increased, indicating elevated attendance from fans living further away.
The Lions finished the regular season with losing records from 2019 to 2021, but finished over .500 in 2022 (9-8), 2023 (12-5), and 2024 (15-2). And with the team’s increasing wins each consecutive season, the size of its stadium's trade area has also increased steadily – reaching 81.3% above 2019 levels in 2024.
This underscores just how much team success matters to fans, who may be more inclined to travel longer distances if they believe their team is likely to win. Ultimately, broader fan engagement across a wider trade area also increases a team’s growth potential beyond in-stadium attendance – driving merchandise sales, increasing viewership, and benefitting both the team and the league as a whole.
While stadium attendance and visitor behavior is often correlated to the performance of the sports teams that play in the arena, sporting venues can also drive fan engagement in ways that aren’t solely tied to team success or big-name athletes. By adapting their concessions and venue operations to visitor preferences, stadiums and arenas can better serve their audiences and strengthen their community presence.
Consumers have been feeling the pinch of rising food costs for quite some time, but at least one NBA team has responded to make concessions at the game more affordable for fans. In December 2024, the Phoenix Suns announced a $2 value menu for all home games at Footprint Center – delivering steep discounts on hot dogs, water, soda, and snacks.
Location analytics suggest that since the value menu launch, more fans who would have otherwise waited until after leaving the venue to grab a bite are now enjoying food and drinks inside the arena. Analysis of five Suns home games just before the value menu launch – between November 26th and December 15th, 2024 – reveals that between 7.0% and 9.3% of stadium visitors visited a dining establishment after leaving the arena. But following the value menu launch before the December 19th, 2024 home game, post-game dining decreased to under 6.0% through the end of the year.
Suns owner Mat Ishbia’s announcement of the new menu called out the need for affordable food options for families at Suns games. As the season progresses, the new menu may drive a larger share of family households to Suns games, which could provide opportunities for advertisers and other stadium partners.
Consumers in Washington – and especially Seattle – are known for their affinity for plant-based diets and environmentally-friendly lifestyles. And that goes for local football fans as well: Audience segmentation provided by the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset combined with trade area data reveals that during September to December 2024, households within Lumen Field’s potential visitor base were 36% more likely to be “Environmentally Conscious Buyers” and “Environmental Contributors” and 39% more likely to be “Vegans” compared to the nationwide average. By contrast, across all NFL stadiums, potential visiting households were 2%, 1%, and 3% less likely, respectively, to belong to these segments.
And Lumen Field has been actively catering to these consumer preferences. The stadium, which has been experimenting with plant-based culinary options for quite some time, was recently recognized as one of the most vegan-friendly stadiums in the NFL. And in December 2024, Lumen became the second stadium in the league to achieve TRUE precertification for its efforts to become a zero-waste venue.
By remaining aligned with its visitor base – including both football fans and people that visit the stadium for other events – Lumen Field encourages visitors to feel at home at their local stadium. And fans may be more connected to their team knowing the club shares their values and respects their lifestyle.
Stadiums and arenas can leverage a variety of strategies to engage visitors in attendance as well as wider audiences. Signing a star athlete, putting together a winning club, or adapting to local preferences are just some of the ways that sports franchises and athletic venues can find success.
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
