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After a strong spring for mall traffic, momentum slowed over the summer. As the chart below shows, visits in June declined year-over-year across all three formats, while July and August traffic leveled off.
Yet, even in this softer environment, indoor malls stood out as the only format to register growth – albeit modest – in both July and August. At the same time, outlet malls managed to close their YoY visit gap, likely buoyed by families looking to save on back-to-school shopping. This trend also points to the potential for a rebound in the format, as consumers’ growing focus on value continues to shape shopping behaviors in new ways.
A softer Labor Day capped off the slower summer, with slight dips in visits across all three mall formats compared to Labor Day weekend 2024 (though indoor malls continued to lead with the smallest YoY visit gap). Outlet malls saw the biggest drop, which combined with their flat August performance, suggests that shoppers frequented outlets earlier in the month rather than holding off for Labor Day promotions.
Taken together, these trends indicate that the summer slowdown was not simply the result of consumers holding back for holiday sales. Instead, with sentiment weakening, shoppers appear to be reducing discretionary purchases that typically drive mall traffic, or looking for better value on a routine basis rather than waiting for special sales.
The decline in average mall visit length offers another indicator of softening consumer sentiment and a cutting back on discretionary purchases. Visit length plummeted over the pandemic as consumers tried to limit their time spent in enclosed spaces, but the average visit duration to malls rose in 2023 and again in 2024 – suggesting that malls were slowly regaining their role as destinations for leisure, dining, and extended shopping trips.
The drop in August 2025, however, signals a reversal of that momentum, perhaps reflecting heightened consumer caution and a renewed focus on efficiency and essentials over browsing and discretionary spending.
Malls’ strong visitation trends just a few months ago caution against drawing overly dire conclusions, and the softer summer may represent a temporary reset rather than a lasting shift. Seasonal headwinds, travel, and consumer caution likely weighed on recent performance, while the steady resilience of indoor malls points to enduring shopper demand for in-person experiences. Outlet malls' success in closing their visit gap also adds reason for optimism.
The upcoming holiday season offers malls a chance to regain momentum and recapture consumer attention. While recent trends highlight caution and shorter visit durations, they also underscore consumers’ growing appetite for value and convenience – dynamics that indoor and outlet malls are uniquely positioned to meet. By pairing value-driven promotions with engaging experiences and festive activations, malls can reassert their role as destinations not just for shopping, but for leisure and community during the holidays. This combination positions shopping centers to benefit from seasonal demand, even as consumers remain more selective with discretionary spending.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
After a period of robust growth following COVID, the eatertainment sector has slowed. Rising prices and economic uncertainty have led many consumers to tighten their budgets, cutting back on discretionary activities. But Q2 2025 data points to an emerging trend that could reshape the industry's trajectory: unlimited-play subscription models that drive repeat visits to major chains.
Eatertainment’s leading brands have followed very different trajectories since 2019. Topgolf and Dave & Buster’s expanded significantly after COVID, driving overall visits above 2019 levels and outperforming the broader full-service restaurant (FSR) segment. By Q2 2025, Topgolf’s systemwide foot traffic was up 59.2% compared to the same period in 2019, while Dave & Buster’s overall visits rose 7.1%. However, both chains began to slow at the unit level in 2022 as inflation weighed on household budgets.
Chuck E. Cheese, meanwhile, shuttered dozens of locations after its 2020 bankruptcy. But in mid-2024, the brand’s systemwide and per-location visits began rebounding significantly, surpassing even the broader FSR segment by Q1 2025.
Chuck E. Cheese’s resurgence can be traced to a revamped Summer Fun Pass program launched in the summer of 2024. By offering unlimited play, the company drove a dramatic increase in repeat visits – and the model proved so successful that the company extended it year-round, fueling sustained visit growth that continued into 2025.
Between March and May 2025, per-location visits to Chuck E. Cheese surged 17.6% to 23.0% year over year (YoY), before stabilizing in June and July as the chain began lapping its extraordinary 2024 performance. Importantly, this plateau doesn’t indicate decline – instead, it highlights Chuck E. Cheese’s ability to maintain traffic levels that seemed unimaginable just two years ago.
Chuck E. Cheese’s loyalty surge also shows no signs of abating. In June 2024 12.0% of visitors came in at least twice during the month – up from 7.2% to 8.0% the previous summer. And although repeat visitation dipped somewhat when school resumed in the fall, it remained elevated YoY and rebounded again this summer.
Topgolf has long relied on expansion to drive growth. But even as overall foot traffic has continued surging past pre-COVID benchmarks, visits per location began declining in 2022.
Recent data, however, suggests this dynamic is shifting. Since May, the chain has posted high single-digit per-location YoY growth – a clear indicator of unit-level recovery. And though same-venue sales still fell 6.0% last quarter, the company raised its guidance, signaling an improved outlook.
Here too, loyalty metrics point to the central role of Topgolf’s revived Summer Fun Pass in reigniting traffic by offering value-conscious consumers more affordable access to its premium experience. Though the gains are smaller than those seen by Chuck E. Cheese’s, they still mark a meaningful step in Topgolf’s recovery.
Dave & Buster’s flagship chain continues to lag peers on YoY visitation, with Q2 2025 traffic below 2024 levels. Still, visit data for May to July 2025 points to an improving trend, aligning with the company’s recent report of better comp sales in June.
Once again, progress appears tied to a new subscription model – Dave & Buster’s first-ever Summer Season Pass. Priced similarly to last year’s new Winter Pass, but timed to coincide with school and college vacations, the summer program significantly boosted repeat visits and strengthened customer engagement. And although per-location traffic at Dave & Buster’s remains a challenge, the brand’s growing loyalty base and expanding footprint give it a foundation for steady, sustainable growth.
Much like gym memberships, affordable flat fees for gameplay at eatertainment venues allow budget-conscious consumers to stretch their dollars by visiting more often. And these subscription-based models appear to be resonating with consumers in 2025.
But the model comes with its own challenges. For Chuck E. Cheese, Topgolf, and Dave & Buster’s, the key test will be turning higher visitation into greater spend. Converting traffic gains into food, beverage, and event revenue – without eroding margins – will ultimately determine whether subscription-driven loyalty can deliver sustainable long-term growth.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Starbucks launched its latest fall menu on August 26th, 2025, which included the fan-favorite Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL). How did the return of the anticipated beverage impact visits this year? We dove into the data to find out.
The fall menu launch and PSL return drove significant visit spikes to Starbucks, as shown in the chart below. And traffic on this year's PSL launch was nearly identical to 2024 levels – highlighting the remarkable consistency of the seasonal offering that has now become a cultural staple. The ability of the PSL to drive traffic at scale – even after two decades – underscores its unique role in Starbucks' playbook.
While the PSL's appeal is coast-to-coast, enthusiasm varies geographically.
The map below plots the increase in Starbucks visits on the launch of the fall menu compared to each state's pre-fall menu launch daily average. The Mountain region emerged as this year's PSL epicenter: Utah led the nation with a traffic surge of over 40% above its daily average, with neighboring states like Colorado, Idaho, and Nevada also showing exceptional gains. The Midwest and Appalachia, including West Virginia and Kentucky, followed with their own impressive double-digit increases.
By contrast, increases were more muted in the Northeast and Southeast, with single-digit visit growth in Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Together, these patterns reveal both the universal draw of Starbucks’ seasonal offerings and the regional nuances that shape consumer response.
While competitors like Dunkin' and Dutch Bros. also leverage seasonal menus to attract customers, their launch-day boosts don't match the scale of the PSL phenomenon, as shown in the chart below. Starbucks has successfully transformed a menu update into a highly anticipated cultural moment that competitors struggle to replicate.
This data suggests that Starbucks' fall launch doesn't just boost its own traffic – it sets the benchmark for the entire industry. The brand’s ability to blend product innovation with cultural relevance reinforces its position as the undisputed leader in the seasonal beverage market.
The data from the 2025 fall menu launch suggests that the Pumpkin Spice Latte is far more than a seasonal beverage; it is one of Starbucks' most reliable and defensible strategic assets. The popular LTO provides a predictable traffic and revenue anchor, transforming the fall menu and the PSL at its center into a reliable financial instrument that widens the company's competitive advantage.
Ultimately, the enduring success of the PSL highlights Starbucks' mastery in transforming a product into a cultural tradition, proving that the most powerful driver of consumer behavior isn't just the product itself, but the anticipation and ritual built around it.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Secondhand shopping has emerged as a major storyline this season amid potential tariff-driven apparel price hikes – but foot traffic data shows that thrifting's move into the mainstream has been years in the making. We dove into the data to assess the state of the thrift store segment in 2025 and explore what’s driving its continued momentum.
Thrift store foot traffic has been on an impressive upward trajectory since COVID. In Q2 2025, visits were up 39.5% compared to Q2 2019 – far exceeding the 9.5% growth seen across the broader clothing industry.
This visit growth advantage reflects a mix of factors, including heightened economic pressures and sustainability concerns. In addition, while much apparel shopping has shifted online – and digital resale platforms like ThredUp are gaining traction – thrifting remains inherently experiential and in-person.
Thrifting’s unique seasonality also highlights its important role in the consumer shopping cycle. As the chart below illustrates, conventional apparel peaks during the holiday shopping season (Q4) while thrift stores hit their stride in summer (Q3) – likely buoyed by warm-weather wardrobe refreshes and back-to-school shopping.
A closer look at year-over-year (YoY) trends show industry-wide thrift store visit increases outpacing per-location gains, suggesting that the segment’s growth is partly driven by store openings. Yet established locations are thriving too, with average visits per location continuing to rise even against last year’s strong benchmarks.
This dual pattern – new stores bringing in additional shoppers while established locations continue to grow – shows that thrifting’s momentum reflects true market expansion rather than merely a redistribution of demand.
Demographic data also points to thrifting’s ongoing move into the mainstream. The median household income of areas feeding visits to thrift stores has risen steadily since 2019, signaling a significant broadening of these stores' customer base beyond their traditional lower-income demographic.
Geographically, thrift shopping has also expanded beyond its urban roots. The share of visits from rural, semi-rural, and suburban communities has climbed consistently over the past six years, making secondhand shopping a fixture of consumer culture across regions and income levels.
With potential tariffs threatening to raise the cost of imported clothing, continued economic pressures, and rising demand for sustainable alternatives, thrift stores appear poised to thrive well into the future. Will secondhand visits climb to new highs this summer?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Whether it’s a family picnic, a romantic stroll, or a casual jog, local parks have long been woven into the fabric of American life. In recent years, however, when and how people use these green spaces has shifted in important ways.
Using Placer.ai’s index of 3,000 local parks (i.e., smaller parks within cities, towns, and suburbs and excluding national and state parks), we analyzed visitation patterns over the past year and compared them to pre-COVID baselines. The results reveal not only a steady rise in park traffic, but also meaningful changes in how Americans engage with these public spaces.
Visits to local parks have steadily increased since 2019 as shown in the graph below – reflecting a sustained post-pandemic shift toward outdoor activities.
But the data also shows an interesting seasonal shift. Unsurprisingly, park visits tend to peak in spring and summer (Q2 and Q3), and drop in winter. But whereas in 2019 and 2021, Q3 slightly outperformed Q2, this trend began to reverse in 2022 – and over the past three years, spring and early summer have consistently outpaced the July to September period. Additionally, while Q2 visits have grown year after year, Q3 visits began to decline in 2024 – and July 2025 data suggests the trend may be continuing.
The shift, though subtle, may be tied to extreme summer heat waves in recent years – but it remains to be seen if this pattern will hold long-term.
Beyond sheer numbers, how people use parks is also changing. Since 2019, the share of visits lasting under 30 minutes has dropped, while visits over 30 minutes have increased – pointing to more intentional, extended outings that may include picnics, sports, or social gatherings.
At the same time, the share of weekday and early-day visits have declined, while weekend and evening visits have grown. This suggests that park trips are increasingly seen as dedicated leisure activities – part of people’s weekend plans rather than casual, quick visits.
Meanwhile, analyzing parks' trade areas indicates a subtle but significant shift in the demographic profiles of park-goers.
In both 2018/9 and 2024/5, park visitors tended to come from relatively affluent areas, with median household incomes (HHIs) above the nationwide average of $79.6K. But the analyzed period saw a modest but significant decline in the median HHI of parks’ trade areas. indicating a broadening of the audience making use of these spaces.
This shift was accompanied by an increase in the participation of families with children – further evidence of the emergence of local parks as communal, family-oriented spaces.
The growth in visitation along with the shifts in timing, duration, and demography carry important implications for local governments and park planners – and understanding these trends can help cities serve their communities and allocate relevant resources more effectively.
For example, with weekend visitation on the rise, cities could plan more park events on Saturdays and Sundays to maximize attendance and community engagement. In addition, more weekend visitors may require expanded parking, public transport options, or bike access to accommodate higher demand.
The growth in later and longer park visits may also suggest a greater need for improved evening amenities, such as better lighting for safety and extended hours for public facilities. Longer visits could also mean higher demand for seating, shaded areas, restrooms, and refreshment vendors. And more families with children could drive demand for enhanced playground equipment, family-friendly programming, and child safety features.
By aligning park services with these evolving patterns, local governments can better serve residents, attract more visitors, and make the most of the growing enthusiasm for outdoor public spaces.
For more up-to-date insights into population movement and civic trends, explore our free migration tool.
Las Vegas has long been a tourism mecca, attracting domestic and international travelers eager to partake of the city’s iconic offerings. However, as economic uncertainty weighs heavily on many would-be vacationers' minds, visits to the city have slowed. We examined H1 2025 data for the city and its legendary Las Vegas Strip (just outside the city limits) to see how domestic tourism slowdowns are impacting the city.
Las Vegas, with its iconic vistas, casinos, entertainment options, and convention centers, has long been a favorite domestic tourism destination. But travel patterns have slowed nationwide, and the downturn hasn’t spared the Entertainment Capital of the World. Foot traffic data for out-of-market domestic visitors to Vegas – defined here as those coming from at least 50 miles away – shows a notable decline in tourist visits to the city.
Visits to the city of Las Vegas have dropped consistently since the pandemic, hitting a low in Q1 2025 when out-of-market traffic fell 4.0% YoY. The Las Vegas Strip, which hosts most of the area’s marquee attractions and drives substantial revenue, fared even worse with a 10.6% YoY decline in Q1.
Still, visits to both the city and the Strip picked up somewhat in Las Vegas’ traditionally stronger Q2, a positive sign for the city and perhaps an indication of better things to come.
Economic uncertainties are likely one of the main reasons for the slowing visits to Las Vegas. And analyzing median household income (HHI) data for the areas supplying out-of-market visitors to the city highlights the economic pressures at play.
In Q2 2019, both the city of Las Vegas and the Strip drew visitors from areas with median HHIs of about $83.0K, with only a slight gap in favor of the Strip. But since then, median HHI trends have shifted, with Las Vegas seeing a subtle but steady rise in median HHI to $88.8K, and the Strip seeing a much more substantial increase to $99.4K.
The steeper climb in median HHI for the Strip’s visits, coupled with its larger visit gaps, suggests that as prices for tourist attractions climb, more budget-conscious visitors may be opting to explore beyond the Strip. Hotel and casino operators, seeing spending on leisure activities soften, are now offering steep discounts to attract additional travel. For local stakeholders, this poses both opportunities and potential downsides: While higher-income visitors may spend more, opening up ample opportunities for operators and retailers, middle-income-focused properties and storefronts face mounting risks. Developing “on-ramps” for value-conscious travelers will be critical to maintaining wide-ranging appeal and driving continued tourism growth.
The shifting profile of visitors presents Las Vegas with both challenges and opportunities. City leaders and industry stakeholders must juggle catering to a more affluent crowd while remaining accessible to budget-minded travelers. Ultimately, the city’s resilience will hinge on a balanced approach – welcoming high-rollers while ensuring that Las Vegas remains a destination for everyone.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven travel & leisure insights.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
