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Last year was marked by inflation and consumer cutbacks as shoppers adjusted to price hikes across key retail and dining categories. But despite the challenges, many categories and retailers not only weathered the storm but positively thrived under the ongoing headwinds.
Now, with a new year offering fresh opportunities for growth, what are the retail and dining segments positioned for success in 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Last year’s high grocery prices led to a surge in foot traffic to affordable supermarket chains – but food-away-from-home inflation also seems to have driven visits to high-end grocers. Visits to chains such as New York-based Uncle Giuseppe’s, Illinois-based Cermak Fresh Market, and California-based Lazy Acres saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit increases as consumers sought specialty ingredients to recreate restaurant-quality dishes at home. Rising interest in sustainability, natural products, and organic ingredients – especially among Gen-Z – likely helped drive traffic growth as well.
But the success of specialty grocers isn’t just coming from singles willing to splurge on the latest influencer-backed food trend – trade area demographic data reveals that families with children are overrepresented in the captured market trade area of all three specialty grocers analyzed. With restaurant prices likely increasing slightly in 2024, consumers looking to feed their families tasty dishes without breaking the bank – or shoppers feeding the growing demand for natural food products – will likely keep visits to specialty grocers high in the coming year.
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Along with the rise in specialty grocers selling natural and organic ingredients, restaurants focusing on whole, healthy foods are also seeing a boost – and the segment is positioned for further growth in 2024. Consumers are flocking to concepts such as Mendocino Farms, honeygrow, and Crisp & Green that boast fresh ingredients and made-from-scratch dishes – and these chains are all expanding to meet the growing demand.
Visits to healthy dining concepts are no longer reserved for special occasions – weekday foot traffic is also on the rise, with all three dining brands analyzed seeing a YoY rise in the share of Monday to Friday visits. With employees slowly but surely returning to the office and looking to grab a nutritious lunch mid-day or meet up with friends for a balanced dinner on their way home, demand for health-focused dining concepts is likely to continue growing in 2024.
Dave’s Hot Chicken was one of 2023’s biggest dining success stories, and the chain was not the only fried chicken franchise attracting significant foot traffic. Raising Cane’s, which has been on a roll for several years, and Huey Magoo’s Chicken Tenders – which serves grilled chicken and other fare alongside its signature fried tenders – are also taking the country by storm.
Foot traffic to the chains surged in 2023, driven in part by aggressive expansions. But zooming into November 2023 data reveals that average visits per venue are also up YoY, despite all three brands’ much larger store fleets – indicating that the fried chicken boom is meeting a ready demand. It seems, then, that while some diners will favor healthy foods in the new year, other consumers are likely to continue driving visits to fried chicken chains in 2024.
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Fried chicken isn’t the only indulgence positioned to thrive in 2024. Other affordable luxuries raked in visits last year and are likely to continue seeing growth in the year ahead.
Although inflation appears to be cooling, prices across many goods and services still remain elevated, with some shoppers still putting off large purchases. But consumers are willing to splurge on small treats that won’t break the bank, and tasty snacks and food items – from craft doughnuts to gourmet deli sandwiches to specialty coffee concoctions – could provide the perfect affordable and guilt-free pick-me-up. Parlor Doughnuts, Pickleman’s Gourmet Cafe, and Dutch Bros. Coffee are some of the chains that benefited from this trend in 2023 and will likely continue to grow in the new year.
The trade areas of the three chains analyzed all include a larger-than-average share of “non-family households” – people living with unrelated individuals. As high housing costs continue to lead more U.S. adults to live with roommates, the number of consumers looking to escape their daily grind with an affordable indulgence is likely to increase in 2024 – and drive even larger visit surges to chains offering budget-friendly treats.
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Non-comestible affordable indulgence such as tanning salons, hair-removal parlors, and eyelash salons are also seeing a rise in visits that will likely continue in the coming year. Deka Lash, Tan Republic, Glo Tanning, and LaserAway are some of the chains that saw their YoY visits increase significantly in 2023, and the growth does not appear to be slowing down.
All four chains’ trade areas included a larger share of Gen-Z visitors (aged 18-24) than the share of 18-24 year olds nationwide. And since, despite inflation, younger shoppers tend to spend more than the average American on beauty and self care – and Gen Z’s spending power is only expected to grow in the coming year – personal grooming chains are well positioned to succeed even further in 2024.
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Another personal care-adjacent segment slated for growth in 2024 is themed fitness. Gyms and studios that focus on a particular type of activity or fitness regimen – such as climbing, yoga, pilates, or HIIT are seeing their visits skyrocket, with both the number of monthly visits and the average visit frequency on the rise YoY.
The rising popularity of themed fitness concepts may be aided by the sense of community fostered by many of these chains. Touchstone Climbing organizes meetup groups geared towards specific audiences, while F45 Training prides itself on facilitating a sense of purpose and belonging among its members. And yoga and pilates classes have long been recognized for their capacity for connection-building.
With loneliness on the rise and many consumers looking to incorporate a fun, social element into their fitness routines, the demand for themed fitness concepts will likely keep on growing in 2024.
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Cost-effectiveness does not necessarily mean cheap. And while some retail segments to watch in 2024 stand out for their low price points, other segments that offer consumers a particularly strong value proposition also appear well positioned to thrive in the coming year. Chains such as Theory, Anthropologie, and Marine Layer all saw YoY increases in monthly visits every month of 2023, perhaps aided by the “quiet luxury” trend that drove demand for high-quality, non-ostentatious fashion. And while these brands may not offer the cheapest price, the focus on good craftsmanship and premium fabrics may help consumers feel better about shelling out a little more for each item.
All three brands analyzed have a significant presence in California. Diving into their captured market in the Golden State reveals that visitors to these upscale apparel retailers tend to be wealthier and are more likely to live alone when compared to the average California resident. So even as many companies look to cater to the increasing share of budget-conscious consumers, other retailers willing to invest in quality materials and offer a premium customer experience can still thrive in 2024 by meeting the needs of more affluent audiences.
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From healthy foods to fried fare, and from affordable treats to higher-priced apparel, the diversity of retail and dining segments to watch in 2024 highlights the many opportunities for success in the coming year. Where will visits skyrocket? Which brands will hit it out of the park?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
Streets adorned in holiday lights, bustling Christmas stores and pop-ups, and local festivals all make the holiday season a truly magical time of year. So with Christmas in the rearview mirror, we dug into the data to explore some of the most beloved holiday spots throughout the country. Who visits Christmas stores? How do holiday events affect foot traffic to local hangouts? And what impact do annual parades have on major retail corridors like Chicago’s Mag Mile?
We dove into the data to find out.
Bronner’s Christmas Wonderland in Frankenmuth, MI is the biggest Christmas store in the country – nay, the world. Spanning some 27 acres, the store carries everything from personalized holiday ornaments to Christmas trees. And the venue, which is open 361 days a year, has emerged as a true destination, where visitors can enjoy a taste of the holiday spirit and load up on all their Christmas essentials.
People visit Bronner’s all year round – but foot traffic to the store really picks up during the holiday season: Between November 1st and December 21st, 2023, the holiday wonderland drew a stunning 438.0% more daily visits, on average, than it did between January and October of this year.
Drilling down deeper into the data shows that much of this visit bump is driven by locals, who flock to Bronner’s during the Christmas season. Throughout the year, Bronner’s draws tourists from all over the country – and in the summer, most visits to the shop are by shoppers living more than 100 miles away. Individuals living within 100 miles of Bronner’s tend to visit closer to Christmas, when the time comes to stock up on supplies for the holiday. And as the holiday approaches, the share of true locals in Bronner’s visitor base – i.e. those living less than 50 miles away from the store – increases significantly.
As the Yuletide season kicks into gear, special holiday-themed pop-ups and happenings also spring up throughout the country, with bars, malls, and restaurants all hosting special events filled with holiday cheer.
One venue that goes all out for the holidays is Mozart’s Coffee Roasters, the lakeside Austin, TX coffee shop that’s been a local landmark since 1993. With free wifi, expansive seating, and bottomless coffee, Mozart’s is the perfect place for remote employees to get some work done. And with hundreds of artists performing at the venue each year and a weekly open mic night, it’s also a great place to go out in the evenings. In the run-up to Christmas, Mozart’s hosts its famed annual holiday lights show, replete with a Bavarian Marketplace, a silent disco, and this year, an actual piece of Taylor Swift’s dance floor.
During the light show, Mozart’s is positively teeming with customers: Since the start of the event this year (November 9th), the coffee shop drew 104.3% more daily visitors, on average, than it did between January 7th (the end of last year’s show) and November 8th, 2023. And unsurprisingly, foot traffic data shows that most of this visit bump is driven by evening customers: During most of the year, the majority of visits to Mozart’s take place before 6:00 PM, with 24.4% concentrated in the morning hours. But when the festival kicks off, this pattern reverses – with 66.7% of visits taking place between 6:00 PM and midnight.
Local parades and festivals are another mainstay of the holiday season. From New York’s iconic Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade to the Hollywood Christmas Parade in Los Angeles, cities across America draw massive crowds to streets decked out with holiday cheer.
One of the nation’s most timeless Christmas celebrations is Chicago’s Wintrust Magnificent Mile Lights Festival – an all-day bonanza that features a slew of booths and activities, a televised parade, and an impressive fireworks display. The festival, which famously illuminates the city with a million lights, is one of the Mag Mile’s prime events of the year. And comparing November 18th, 2023 foot traffic to the popular Chicago retail corridor – the day of the big event – to a September 1st 2023 baseline, shows that the festivities generated a tremendous 179.5% visit spike.
And a look at the demographic characteristics of visitors to the Mag Mile during the Lights Festival reveals that the celebration draws a more economically diverse crowd, as well as a larger share of families with children. Throughout most of this year, the median household income (HHI) of the Magnificent Mile’s captured market was relatively high – $85.4K. At the same time, the share of parental households in the retail corridor’s captured market increased from 21.0% to 23.4%, highlighting the event’s special appeal for families.
Everybody needs some seasonal cheer – and the sheer variety of holiday-themed events and festivals means there’s something for everybody. How will Christmas stores fare as the retail environment continues to evolve? And how will shifting urban landscapes impact local events, parades, and festivals in the years to come?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail and civic analyses to find out.
College students make up a small percentage of the overall U.S. population. But they often have money to spend – and back-to-college shopping is a significant driver of retail sales. This year in particular, students heading back to school were expected to spend record amounts on dorm decor, clothing, and other campus essentials. And since today’s college students make up a large chunk of tomorrow’s affluent consumers, retailers across industries are eager to cement positive relationships with the segment.
So with fall semester just under way, we dove into the data to explore the spending habits of today’s undergraduate young adults. When do they shop? What do they like to buy? And what can retailers do to get their attention?
To get a sense of when collegians tend to do the most shopping, we analyzed the monthly share of college students in the captured markets of select retailers and segments, using audience segmentation data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive. And the analysis revealed that student consumer behavior follows a clear seasonal pattern.
In 2019, the share of college students in the captured markets of big box superstores like Target and Walmart peaked in August, and to a lesser extent in June, July, and September, as collegians enjoyed their summer vacations and did their back-to-school shopping. Additional upticks emerged in January, when many students were on winter break. But during regular school months, when midterms, finals, and homework likely kept many students hunkered down in the library, their share in the chains’ captured markets was much lower. While this pattern was disrupted in the wake of COVID, it returned in full force in 2022. Similar seasonality arose when looking at wider segments like apparel and off-price retail, as well as various dining categories.
In addition to seasonality, the above graphs also appear to indicate that despite their tight budgets, collegians don’t necessarily prioritize price over everything else. So to further explore the shopping preferences of college kids, we examined the share of the #College segment in the captured markets of popular chains across categories.
Trade area data seems to indicate that university students shop at Target, frequent non-off-price-apparel chains, eat at fast-casual restaurants – and make up smaller shares of the customer bases of less expensive alternatives. Indeed, as hard-up as they may be, undergrads know how to splurge and are willing to pay for high quality stuff. They can’t get enough Urban Outfitters and love mid to higher range brands like Madewell and lululemon athletica.
At the same time, college students are highly oriented to thrift shops – especially those like Buffalo Exchange and Plato’s Closet, where they can sell their old clothes and snag stylish, name-brand items for a steal.
Of course, the share of collegians in the captured market of any given retailer or segment can also be impacted by the behavior of other demographics. For example, if a particular chain attracts an extremely broad audience, a lower relative share of college students may indicate that their presence is being offset by other segments. Still, while a small share of collegians in a chain’s trade area may not necessarily mean that the chain does not appeal to this group, a disproportionate share of students in a chain’s captured market is a strong indication that the brand is embraced by this demographic.
And chains which see a smaller share of college students among their customer base may draw an outsize proportion of undergrads during peak season. Walmart’s captured market, for example, was just 14.0% over-indexed for the #College segment between September 2022 and August 2023, compared to a nationwide baseline. But looking just at August 2023 – peak college Back to School shopping season – the share of #College students in its captured market was 94.0% higher than the nationwide average. Walmart also enjoyed higher-than-average shares of collegians in September, June, July, January, and to a lesser extent – October. Dollar Tree, too, attracted an outsize share of collegians in the summer and in January.
Collegian shopping habits are shaped by the rhythms of campus life. And while students are budget-conscious, they place a high premium on quality and are willing to spend money on things that are important to them. Brands that can lean into college students’ seasonal groove – while providing the products they crave at price points that don’t break the bank – will be poised to win over this demographic, gaining customers that may stay with them for life.
How will college spending habits continue to evolve as the school year progresses? Which brands will stand out as collegian favorites?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven insights to find out.
Marriott International, Inc. has long been a dominant player on the U.S. hospitality scene. The company boasts a wide-ranging portfolio of some 31 brands, running the gamut from luxury chains like The Ritz Carlton to more budget-friendly options like Courtyard by Marriott. And with more than 8,500 locations worldwide, including some 5,700 in the U.S., the hotel giant is continuing to expand its footprint.
Against this backdrop, Marriott International’s decision last May to launch the hospitality industry’s first media network – leveraging visitor data to let external brands advertise to its customers – should come as no surprise. With millions of customers passing through its doors each year, Marriott is particularly well-placed to help relevant advertising partners reach new audiences. The network, powered by Yahoo, offers both online and offline marketing opportunities, including in-room television and digital-screen promotions.
To better understand the potential reach of Marriott’s advertising network, we dove into the data to explore the characteristics and preferences of the people that visit the hospitality leader’s various brands and locations. By layering foot traffic data with demographic and psychographic metrics from STI: Popstats, AGS Behavior & Attitudes, and Experian’s Mosaic, we examined Marriott’s different captured markets, gaining insight into the habits, interests, and profiles of its customer bases.
*A chain or venue’s captured market refers to the population residing in its trade area, weighted to reflect the actual share of visits from each Census Block Group comprising the trade area.
Marriott’s brands are divided into three tiers: Luxury, Premium, and Select. And with something for everyone, the company’s customer base encompasses a wide swath of society – from budget-conscious families looking for inexpensive accommodations, to affluent singles on the hunt for high-end, luxury getaways. Marriott also runs several extended-stay venues, including Residence Inn and TownePlace Suites.
A look at the profiles of visitors to four different Marriott chains shows that, as expected, wealthier patrons tend to frequent the company’s luxury hotels, while less affluent customers tend to visit its more budget-oriented Select brands. But even the company’s less pricey offerings – such as Four Points by Sheraton (acquired by Marriott in 2016) – attract consumers from relatively affluent areas. And certain Select tier destinations, like Marriott’s Millennial and GenZ-oriented Moxy Hotels, draw higher-HHI travelers than some Premium brands.
The household compositions and consumer preferences of visitors to Marriott’s various brands also differ. Four Points stands out as a prime destination for families with children, as well as older couples – while Moxy attracts an outsize share of “Young City Solos.” Moxy and Ritz Carlton guests are more likely to be museum goers and use ride share apps like Lyft and Uber. And visitors to Four Points and Westin locations are more apt to be into DIY home improvement.
One Marriott chain that has been doing particularly well in recent months is Moxy Hotels, a brand squarely targeted at the “young at heart.” Positioned as an experiential destination – a place to play, and not just stay – Moxy Hotels’ website exudes youthfulness, inviting travelers to “PLAY ON #ATTHEMOXY,” and touting the chain’s fun communal spaces. The rooms are relatively compact and affordable, and at some locations, guests can check in at the bar and claim a complimentary cocktail.
And the chain, which boasts some 120 properties across 23 countries (including more than 30 in the U.S.), experienced positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout H1 2023. While some of this growth is undoubtedly due to the chain’s continued expansion, the average number of visits to each Moxy Hotel also increased. The consumer quest for fun experiences, which has propelled experiential models in retail and dining, appears to be leaving its mark on the hotel industry as well.
Moxy Hotel’s highly targeted experiential vibe may make it particularly attractive for advertisers interested in reaching younger consumers. But while Moxy targets a pretty specific demographic, the profile of its customers is far from uniform. Visitors to Moxy’s New Orleans Hotel, for example, are more likely to have a lower HHI and to include families with children than visitors to its Washington, D.C. and East Village (New York) venues. And while more than 60.0% of visitors to the East Village Moxy in H1 2023 were locals hailing from less than 30 miles away, 81.5% of visitors to the New Orleans Moxy came from further away.
Buoyed by a post-COVID travel boom that has seen people flocking back to hotels and airlines, Marriott International – along with its media network – appears poised for further growth. While the network will undoubtedly harness Marriott’s own first-party data, including from its Bonvoy loyalty program, location intelligence can offer additional layers of insight into the actual audiences it is likely to reach.
For more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
Although many dining chains have been challenged by recent economic headwinds, others are finding success. Adding itself to the list of restaurant winners in 2023 is CAVA – a growing Mediterranean fast-casual chain that recently filed for an initial public offering (IPO). We dove into the location analytics for CAVA to take a closer look at how the company is thriving in a turbulent economic climate and what lies ahead for the chain in its next chapter.
CAVA has shown a remarkable ability to drive foot traffic over the past couple of years. Since 2019, CAVA’s baseline visit growth has outperformed the fast-casual restaurant space nearly every month – with visits really taking off in 2021. The brand has been able to capitalize on growing suburban markets – accounting for 80% of locations – which may be contributing to the chain’s visit growth.
Visits to CAVA have skyrocketed. And like other fast-casual success stories, CAVA has embraced drive-thrus and invested in a streamlined in-store experience, both of which are likely contributing to at least some of the brand’s recent strength.
In addition to impressive visit growth, CAVA recorded a 12.8% revenue increase in 2022 compared to 2021 – no small feat considering the impact of inflation on overall restaurant traffic.
Zooming into visits per venue showcases CAVA’s strength even more clearly. CAVA’s visits-per-venue seem to follow industry trends – as overall fast-casual visits-per-venue fell year-over-year (YoY) between January and April 2023, CAVA’s visit-per-venue growth slowed as well. But although the direction was similar, the actual performance differed substantially, with the company significantly outperforming the wider fast-casual category.
CAVA’s YoY monthly visits per venue have been up since January 2023 – a particularly impressive feat in light of the chain’s continued expansion, and an indication that new locations are driving traffic despite the current economic environment. So, while CAVA appears to be affected by broader restaurant trends, the brand remains far ahead of the fast-casual dining space.
CAVA’s bold brick-and-mortar strategy is part of the reason why it has been able to get ahead of the pack in the fast-casual category. The company acquired Zoës Kitchen in 2018 and has since rebranded almost all Zoës Kitchen locations as CAVA restaurants. Such a strategy is relatively rare in the restaurant industry, but location analytics show that the move has paid off.
Since Q1 2021, CAVA’s YoY visits per venue have consistently outperformed visits-per-venue at the remaining Zoës Kitchen locations. This not only validates CAVA’s decision to phase out the Zoës Kitchen brand but also suggests that CAVA resonates with Zoës Kitchen diners who continue to visit a location when it becomes a CAVA restaurant.
CAVA’s IPO announcement is a welcome next step for one of the fastest-growing fast-casual chains. With a focused expansion strategy and an eye on growing markets, there may be no telling how far the company can go.
For updates and more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
Our latest white paper, Who’s in the Stands? An In-Depth Look at Arena and Stadium Visits, uses location intelligence tools to uncover the demographic and psychographic characteristics of sporting events attendees – including Super Bowl fans. Below is a taste of our findings.
As the biggest game of the year, the Super Bowl usually brings a tourism boom to the host city. The heat map below depicts the origins of travelers to the past three Super Bowls (excluding Super Bowl LV in 2021 which was held under COVID restrictions). Year after year, the distribution of Super Bowl attendees is relatively similar to the country’s population distribution – which means, perhaps unsurprisingly, that the most densely populated regions are well-represented at the game.
But the data also reveals that many Super Bowl attendees travel from the regions where the competing teams are based, which indicates that die-hard fans are willing to make the trip to see their local team potentially win a championship. The map also shows that visitors from the Super Bowl’s host city and surrounding areas are heavily represented at the game, regardless of whether or not a local team is playing. It’s likely that a significant number of football fans who live nearby take advantage of the rare opportunity to see a Super Bowl close to home.
Super Bowl LVI in 2022, for example, was played at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, CA between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams. The event was heavily visited by fans from Southern California as the game was not only being played by the LA Rams, but also at their home stadium in Inglewood, CA. A greater contingent than previous years was also in attendance from Cincinnati, OH and its surrounding areas.
Many fans travel to the Super Bowl from the same regions every year, with the host city and the contending teams’ hometowns also providing significant factions of attendees. But analyzing Super Bowl crowds throughout the years also reveals an important demographic shift taking place among those traveling to the Super Bowl – the growing number of family-oriented visitors.
Since 2019, the True Trade Areas of the Super Bowl stadiums include increasingly greater shares of larger families. Last year’s Super Bowl LVI had an in-person audience that reflected a trade area in which 17.9% of residents came from families of five or more, up from 11.9% at the Super Bowl three years prior. Conversely, Super Bowl attendees in 2022 reflected a trade area in which 37.7% of residents were part of two-person households, a decrease from 47.8% in 2019.
The increase in attendees from areas with larger families could reflect the NFL’s initiatives to make football a more family-friendly sport, including rule and equipment changes aimed at increasing player safety and supporting youth football clubs. The trend towards an increase in attendees from larger families may also inform decisions about products to promote as well as amenities that will contribute to a family-friendly experience on game day.
Brands invest heavily in ads that air during the Super Bowl. But with the right insights, stadium advertising platforms have tremendous potential to reach target audiences in-person at the big game. While a large audience is part of the equation, in order to achieve maximum impact, an in-depth understanding of visitors is critical.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
