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Traffic to Albertsons banners has increased steadily over the past couple of years, with visits still significantly higher (10.5%) than in pre-pandemic 2019. So while visits did dip slightly relative to 2023 (-1.1%) – likely due to stabilization following the robust growth of recent years – the minimal decline highlights Albertsons’ capacity to maintain strong foot traffic despite a challenging economic environment.
Zooming into quarterly-level data also highlights Albertsons’ strength. After narrowing its year-over-year (YoY) visit gap from -2.5% in Q2 2024 to -0.9% in Q3 and Q4 2024, Q1 2025 visits are now level with Q1 2024 traffic – suggesting that Albertsons’ visits have indeed stabilized, with the company holding on the gains of the past couple of years.
The company’s resilience in the face of the growing competition from discount & dollar stores is likely contributing to Albertsons’ strength.
Inflation and high prices have had a major impact on grocery shopping behavior in recent years, with discount stores emerging as significant players in the grocery market. Indeed, between 2019 and 2024, the share of visits to the discount & dollar category out of total grocery and discount & dollar store visits increased from 23.4% to 25.5% – likely due to some shoppers favoring more affordable grocery channels over traditional supermarkets. Meanwhile, grocery’s relative visit share decreased, with traffic to the grocery category (excluding Albertsons banners) falling from 67.8% in 2019 to 66.0% in 2024. But Albertsons’ relative visit share remained largely stable during this period – suggesting that, even as budget-conscious consumers gravitate towards discount stores, Albertsons has managed to retain its customer base.
Albertsons, like other grocery stores, has seen an increase in short visits in recent years, leading to shorter average dwell time. Between 2019 and 2024, the average length of stay across Albertsons brands dropped from 22.7 minutes to 21.6 minutes.
The drop in visit duration may be partially attributed to the growing segment of consumers who prefer the convenience of picking up their groceries via lockers or curbside, or who are supplementing their online orders with quick trips in-store. And as Albertsons has invested in curbside pickup, delivery, and online shopping options across a number of its banners, the company is well positioned to meet the demand for flexibility and efficiency in the grocery space.
Diving into some of Albertsons’ biggest brands reveals that visits to most banners stayed relatively close to 2023 levels, with YoY traffic trends ranging from -2.7% to +2.9%. While banners like Albertsons, Safeway, and VONS saw slightly fewer visits in 2024 compared to 2023, Jewel-Osco and Shaw's Supermarket enjoyed YoY visit growth.
Albertsons is making the best of a challenging economic environment, keeping visits close to previous levels and maintaining its share of the grocery visit pie.
Will the grocery banner see visit growth into 2025? Visit Placer.ai for more up-to-date grocery retail insights.
While the U.S. government has currently partially paused its consideration of reciprocal tariffs on global imports, retailers are still bracing for the possibility of future enactment and potential ripple effects across the industry of the tariffs still in place. From rising supply chain costs to shifts in consumer behavior, tariffs have the potential to impact everything from product pricing to in-store foot traffic. And in an environment where consumers remain highly price-sensitive and economic uncertainty persists, understanding how tariffs could influence retail visitation is critical. While we won’t know the full impact until the tariffs are implemented and impacted retailers adjust, Placer.ai visitation data can help evaluate how the proposed tariffs may be shaping consumer patterns and what that might mean for retailers moving forward.
When new regulations like tariffs are introduced, they often create both short-term and long-term effects. In the short term, consumers remain highly price-sensitive following prolonged inflation in key areas such as food, rent, and healthcare. As a result, our visitation data suggests that some consumers acted early to avoid potential price increases tied to tariff implementation. While visit trends for the week of March 24–30, 2025 were also influenced by the timing of Easter in 2024 (which fell on March 31), Placer.ai data indicates a possible pull forward in demand during the weeks leading up to the expected implementation of the latest tariffs—particularly at “stock-up” retailers like warehouse clubs. In fact, warehouse clubs recorded their strongest year-over-year visitation week of 2025 on the week of March 24-30th, while superstores and grocery stores saw declines, likely due to comparisons to strong performance during the same Easter week in the previous year.
Looking at more discretionary retail categories, we also see evidence that consumers were trying to get ahead of tariff implementation. Our data indicates that retailers selling products sourced from countries potentially facing higher tariffs experienced stronger year-over-year visitation trends. The timing of Easter 2024 likely contributed to this boost as well—many of these retailers were closed or operating with reduced hours during that week last year. Categories such as home improvement, electronics, luxury department stores, apparel and accessories, and clothing all saw notable year-over-year visitation increases for the week of March 24–30, 2025, as shown below.
While many uncertainties remain around tariff implementation, consumers are likely to increasingly gravitate toward retailers that offer bulk purchasing, strong private label alternatives, and everyday low prices—areas where warehouse clubs and discount grocers with robust private label assortments excel. Similarly, national restaurant chains with streamlined operations, diversified global supply chains, and the ability to scale value-driven promotions will hold a competitive edge. Off-price retailers and thrift stores offering secondhand and resale items may also benefit, appealing to deal-seeking consumers. These types of retailers are often better positioned to absorb rising costs and maintain affordability, making them attractive options in an increasingly inflation-sensitive environment.
Consumer electronics, apparel, luxury goods, and beverage alcohol retailers may be disproportionately affected by potential tariffs due to their heavy reliance on imported products and limited pricing flexibility. Many electronics, luxury, and apparel items are sourced from countries subject to implemented or potential tariffs, which could significantly increase costs in categories already operating with tight margins. For beverage alcohol retailers, tariffs on imported wine, spirits, and specialty ingredients could lead to supply chain disruptions and higher prices, particularly for premium or niche products. In these segments, passing additional costs on to consumers may be challenging in an environment where shoppers remain highly price-sensitive, potentially resulting in decreased demand, inventory issues, and increased reliance on promotional strategies.
As the U.S. moves closer to implementing new tariffs, retailers across categories must prepare for both immediate and long-term impacts. From early signs of stock-up behavior at warehouse clubs to shifting visitation patterns in discretionary categories like apparel and electronics, consumer response is already taking shape. While value-focused retailers and those with operational agility may be better positioned to weather the storm, others – particularly those reliant on imported goods – could face heightened challenges. In this evolving landscape, visitation data can help to assess consumer behavior in real time, helping retailers adapt strategies and remain competitive as the full effects of tariff policies unfold.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
A Minecraft Movie shattered box office predictions with a $162.75 million opening, as eager fans – some tossing popcorn or yelling “chicken jockey” – flocked to theaters nationwide.
On the weekend of A Minecraft Movie’s release (Friday, April 4th to Sunday, April 6th), leading cinema chains AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark enjoyed a 92.6% visit boost compared to an average weekend during the past 12 months. Only Moana 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine drew bigger crowds.
And examining daily cinema visit fluctuations this year shows that visits to cinemas peaked on Saturday, April 5th, when foot traffic surged 336.7% above the year-to-date daily average.
Already dubbed “the gamer version” of 1960’s cult film The Rocky Horror Picture Show, A Minecraft Movie has become Warner Bros.’ third-biggest opening of all time. But how long will the film keep drawing crowds?
Follow Placer.ai to find out.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include government buildings or mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
RTO mandates seem to be everywhere. Following the federal government’s example, local governments from the City of Atlanta to the State of Texas have introduced stricter in-office requirements. And an increasing number of corporations are demanding full-time in-person work – including firms like JPMorgan, which began enforcing a five-day RTO mandate in early March.
But what does ground-level data tell us about how these new policies are affecting office attendance in practice? Did the RTO slowdown observed in January and February continue into March? Or is a new resurgence underway?
The latest data from the Placer.ai Office Index suggests that nationwide office visits may be trending upwards once again. Although March 2025 office visit levels didn’t match the peaks of October and July 2024, visits last month were only 32.2% below March 2019 levels – an improvement over March 2024.
Significantly, among months with 21 or fewer working days, March 2025 ranked as the second-busiest in-office month since the pandemic, just slightly behind October 2023 (October and July 2024 both had 22 days). So while January and February’s declining numbers hinted at a stalled market, March’s uptick suggests that lower office attendance earlier in the year may have been due to temporary factors like weather – and that the RTO may still be gaining momentum.
Diving into the data for eleven major business hubs nationwide shows New York and Miami once again at the head of the office recovery pack. Visits to NYC office buildings in March 2025 were just 11.4% below pre-pandemic (March 2019) levels – while Miami trailed by 17.3%. Meanwhile, Atlanta (-29.3%), Washington, D.C. (-30.6%), Dallas (-30.7%), and Houston (-31.0%) all outperformed the nationwide average of -32.2%. San Francisco tied in last place with Chicago, with visits 44.6% below 2019 levels.
Turning to year-over-year (YoY) data, ten of the eleven analyzed cities experienced YoY office visit growth – led by Boston, with a 10.2% uptick. Washington, D.C. also recorded strong YoY gains (9.8%) – while San Francisco continued its recent positive momentum with a 9.6% increase. Los Angeles was the only city to see a minor (-2.2%) YoY visit lag – perhaps lingering fallout from the wildfires earlier this year.
Overall, the Placer.ai Office Index points to a renewed upswing in RTO momentum, likely driven by increasingly strict mandates from governments and corporations. Though persistent post-pandemic office visit gaps point to the continued prevalence of hybrid work, March’s noticeable uptick suggests that offices may be poised to make further gains in the coming months.
For more data-driven CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
With Q1 2025 just under our belts, we dove into the data to see how quick-service and fast-casual restaurants (QSRs) fared in the year’s early months. Which chains managed to weather the headwinds – both fiscal and meteorological – that have weighed on consumer traffic in recent months? And which brands emerged as top performers?
We dove into the data to find out.
QSRs faced a challenging environment in the first part of 2025, as harsh winter weather, economic uncertainty, and heightened value competition from fast-casual chains, full-service restaurants (Chili’s, anyone?), and even grocery stores drove visits down. Overall, QSR foot traffic declined by 1.6% year over year (YoY) in Q1, with much of the drop occurring in February – when a polar vortex and the comparison to a leap-year February 2024 led to a traffic dip. By March, however, visits began to stabilize, and the segment finished out the month with foot traffic levels essentially flat YoY (-0.3%).
Still, some QSRs stood out. Rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers, for example, saw YoY gains in both overall visits and average visits per location (12.3% and 3.7%, respectively). Known for quick, quality fare – the chain’s sauces have even inspired viral tik-tok videos – Raising Cane’s fleet growth is clearly meeting robust demand.
Taco Bell also emerged as a Q1 leader, with quarterly visits rising 3.7% YoY. The brand doubled down on value with its expanded selection of Luxe Cravings Boxes. And the tex-mex giant’s limited-time Crunchwrap Slider offering – launched in early 2025 to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Crunchwrap Supreme – generated plenty of buzz.
Meanwhile, McDonald’s, which launched its new McValue menu in January 2025, narrowed its visit gap to 1.0% in March – an encouraging sign as the year gets into full swing.
Fast-casual fared somewhat better, ending Q1 2025 with flat YoY visits (+0.0%). And though the segment mirrored QSR’s monthly pattern of gains in January, a dip in February, and stabilization in March, several major players posted positive Q1 results – including Chipotle (+4.6%), Panda Express (+3.8%), Jersey Mike’s Subs (+3.1%) and Qdoba Mexican Grill (+1.5%). While fleet expansion contributed to some of these increases, menu innovation – particularly well-chosen chicken and shrimp-focused limited-time offerings – likely also played a role.
In addition to these major chains, several smaller fast-casual brands enjoyed outsized visit performance in early 2025, driven by rapid expansion meeting strong demand. Dave’s Hot Chicken, capitalizing on consumers’ ongoing enthusiasm for chicken dishes, logged a remarkable 59.3% YoY visit surge in Q1 2025, and an 11.6% jump in average visits per location. Health-forward chains CAVA and sweetgreen also grew their footprints – and audiences – likely supported by the return-to-office trend and continued interest in wholesome, convenient dining options.
All told, QSR and fast-casual brands held their own in Q1 2025 – with some brands standing out through strategic value offerings, menu innovation, and expansion. How will QSRs and fast-casual chains continue to fare as 2025 wears on?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining analyses to find out.
About the Placer.ai Mall Index: The Placer.ai Mall Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
Mall visits largely rebounded in March following their February drop. Traffic to indoor malls grew 1.8% year-over-year while open-air shopping centers and outlet malls saw their YoY visit gaps narrow to 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively. The rebound may be driven by the slight increase in consumer confidence among younger consumers (under 35 years old) and consumers from households earning over $125K a year – since affluent households are overrepresented in the trade areas of all three mall formats.
Indoor malls’ March YoY visit growth is the latest manifestation of the format’s strength. Between Q2 2023 and Q1 2024, open-air shopping centers led the shopping center space as this format consistently outperformed the other two mall types on a YoY visit basis. But over the past year, indoor malls have led the pack, with YoY visit trends to indoor malls consistently stronger than visitation metrics for the other two formats.
Some of the strength of indoor malls could be attributed to a sort of “survival of the fittest.” Many indoor malls shuttered in recent years, so the malls that remain in operation – such as the top-tier malls in the Placer.ai Indoor Mall Index – may be receiving some of the traffic that may have previously gone to less successful malls. Indoor malls are likely also benefiting from a renewed demand for the indoor mall experience – which could explain the string of recent investments in class B malls – from Walmart’s purchase of the Monroeville mall to Simon’s redevelopment of the Smith Haven Mall.
March 2025 marked the five-year anniversary of the retail lockdowns. And although this past month marked an improvement in visitation trends on a YoY basis, zooming out in time reveals that the pandemic is still having a lingering impact on both the quantity and quality of mall visits across formats.
All three mall types received fewer, shorter visits in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2019, with outlet malls seeing the largest drop in both visit numbers and visit duration. Open-air shopping centers experienced the strongest recovery in terms of visit numbers – Q1 2025 traffic was just 2.0% lower than in Q1 2019 – while visit duration fell 4.4%. Indoor malls saw the strongest rebound in visit duration, with Q1 2025 visits only 2.9% shorter than pre-pandemic – but visit numbers were down 7.4%. So despite the resilience of open-air shopping centers and the recent visit gains of indoor malls, the shopping center industry still has a ways to go before visitation patterns return to pre-COVID levels across the board.
As the industry looks beyond the five-year mark, the future of malls will likely depend on adaptability. Operators who can balance digital integration, experiential offerings, and responding to shifting consumer preferences will be best positioned to thrive in a post-COVID retail environment.
While the positive March visit data offers a degree of optimism for the mall industry, it's crucial to acknowledge that the sector is still navigating the long-term effects of the pandemic, characterized by fewer and shorter visits compared to pre-2020. At the same time, the recent success of indoor malls suggests a potential shift in consumer preferences or a concentration of traffic in stronger locations, highlighting the ongoing evolution of the retail landscape. Moving forward, the resilience and future success of malls will likely hinge on their ability to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and integrate innovative strategies that enhance the overall shopping experience.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
