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Dave’s Hot Chicken and Dutch Bros represent two stages of competitive maturity in the dining industry. Dave’s, the rookie powerhouse, is still in its breakout phase – driven by speed, excitement, and growth at any cost. Dutch Bros, on the other hand, is the seasoned veteran entering a more disciplined period of its career, focused on refinement, endurance, and strategic precision.
A snapshot of nationwide foot traffic data clearly shows the difference between the two brands. Between January and October 2025, Dave’s Hot Chicken recorded a remarkable 59.3% increase in total visits, driven by an aggressive pace of new openings. And the average number of visits to each individual store also rose 4.8%, signaling robust and growing demand.
Dutch Bros, meanwhile, experienced a more measured 13.1% growth in total visits, with visits per location holding steady at 0.2%. This stability suggests that while new units continue to perform, many established markets are reaching maturity – a hallmark of a seasoned brand transitioning from rapid expansion to optimization.
The contrast between the two brands becomes even more striking when analyzing major markets. While Dutch Bros’ visit growth reflects slower gains tied to market maturity, Dave’s is posting explosive per-location surges in major DMAs like Chicago (+18.4%), Orlando (+15.5%), and Houston (+15.0%). It’s the classic rookie hot streak – fast, fearless, and full of momentum.
Dutch Bros is now a massive operation with 1,080 locations in 24 states as of September 2025. Though much of the company's early growth was achieved through a franchise system, Dutch Bros stopped selling franchises to operators who didn’t grow up in the company in 2008 – and stopped franchising completely in 2017 to maintain consistency and preserve its distinctive brand and culture.
Today, only about 30% of Dutch Bros locations are franchise-operated. And as illustrated by the map below, while new stores are fueling growth, older markets – particularly in the Pacific Northwest – are reaching maturity. Dutch Bros is no longer just sprinting to open new stores; it’s managing endurance and refining its playbook – optimizing store placement, leveraging data analytics, and deepening engagement through its digital rewards program. This maturity mirrors what Starbucks went through two decades ago: fewer easy wins, but a much higher floor for long-term performance.
Then there’s Dave’s Hot Chicken – fast, fearless, and still in its hyper-growth phase. From a parking-lot pop-up in 2017 to around 300 locations today, Dave’s is scaling at a speed rarely seen in food service.
Like Dutch Bros in its early days, Dave’s still embraces a franchise-first approach. Backed by Roark Capital and celebrity investors including Drake, the brand is leveraging multi-unit operators to plant flags nationwide and abroad. The company aims to open 150 new locations a year and recently signed an 180-unit European deal with Azzurri Group – proof that the rookie’s winning streak is turning into a global phenomenon.
And the map below highlights how Dave’s Hot Chicken is playing offense with no signs of slowing down. The brand’s franchise-first model allows for rapid scaling with lower capital risk, while Roark Capital’s involvement brings big-league operational infrastructure. But like any breakout player, the challenge will be endurance – ensuring franchisees maintain consistency and profitability as the system races toward 1,000+ units.
For operators and investors, the Dutch Bros/Dave’s contrast is a roadmap to growth sequencing. Early-stage brands can learn from Dave’s: Invest in buzz, speed, and market saturation while consumer curiosity is high. Maturing chains, on the other hand, can look to Dutch Bros as proof that disciplined growth, data-led decisions, and cultural integrity are what sustain relevance once expansion slows.
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Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
How is lululemon performing in a challenging retail environment, and what does Black Friday data suggest about the holiday shopping season already under way? We dove into the data to find out.
Visits to lululemon were up 4.2% year over year (YoY) in Q3 2025 – a promising sign ahead of the holidays. And though monthly same-store visits trended slightly negative YoY, same-store traffic grew in October – a positive sign ahead of a critical holiday season.
Looking back at previous holiday seasons provides further room for optimism for lululemon. The retailer reliably sees late-year traffic spikes – on Black Friday and especially at the end of December, when its End-of-Year sale and Boxing Day discounts pull in last-minute and bargain-seeking shoppers.
Black Friday 2025 data shows that luluemon is already off to a strong start, with visits surpassing even last year's strong performance – the chain experienced a 350.8% increase in visits compared to its January to September 2025 daily visit average.
Looking ahead, this early momentum positions lululemon to reclaim share during what many retailers expect to be a tighter holiday season. Given macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer sentiment, early wins like this may be critical – strong traffic now could translate into outsized holiday-season revenue, reinforce customer loyalty, and help offset any softening in post-Black-Friday demand.
Lululemon is driving increased foot traffic despite visit softness earlier in the year and persistent consumer headwinds. With the all-important holiday season fast-approaching, will the chain continue to drive visit growth?
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Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Prior to Black Friday, mall visits across the three formats (indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls) were running comfortably ahead of 2024 levels. But during the week of Black Friday 2025, visits to indoor malls and open-air centers flattened or even dropped year over year – suggesting that many shoppers had moved their trips to earlier in November, when mall retailers had begun rolling out early Black Friday promotions.
A closer look at daily traffic across the Black Friday weekend reveals how this shift played out. Friday performed well across all formats, with indoor mall visits rising 3.1% year over year, open-air centers up 1.7%, and outlet malls essentially flat but still slightly positive. But Saturday and Sunday traffic declined YoY, weighing down on Friday's gains and pulling the whole week into negative YoY territory.
So Friday retained its status as the high-impact day, but the rest of the weekend showed signs of promotional fatigue – or simply that shoppers had already taken advantage of the deals they wanted.
If visit counts capture one dimension of consumer behavior, dwell time reveals another. The share of visits lasting more than an hour declined across all mall formats relative to last year, indicating a more mission-driven shopper – someone who arrives with a plan, moves efficiently, and heads on to the next task. The trend may also hint at a strategic shift: some consumers may have used earlier November visits to scout specific items or sizes, allowing them to streamline their Black Friday trips and focus on securing the best deals both inside and outside the mall.
Most importantly, a broader look at year-over-year monthly visits shows that the early surge in November traffic more than offset the softness during Black Friday week, ultimately providing November 2025 with an overall YoY traffic boost. This pattern suggests that the holiday season’s momentum is becoming less dependent on a single weekend and increasingly shaped by how effectively retailers engage shoppers throughout the month – and the longer holiday season as a whole.
Black Friday mall data suggests that consumers are still engaging deeply with physical retail, yet the cadence of that engagement is evolving. They are starting earlier, concentrating their in-person activity in shorter bursts, and reserving their longest visits for fewer occasions. For retailers, this dynamic underscores the importance of capturing Friday’s surge, aligning promotions with earlier November interest, and offering experiences compelling enough to draw shoppers back later in the weekend. For landlords, the data highlights opportunities to support purposeful shopping with frictionless navigation, efficient operations, and programming that encourages dwell at moments when the natural impulse may be to move quickly.
As December data comes into view – from Super Saturday to the final week before Christmas – the key question will be whether these patterns continue or whether late-season urgency reshapes the curve once again. For now, the early read is clear: shoppers are showing up, but on their own terms, and malls that adapt to this more intentional consumer are positioned to capture the strongest returns.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Black Friday 2025 offered an early look at how consumers are approaching a holiday season defined by tighter budgets and more deliberate spending. Foot traffic trends across regions and retail categories show that while the traditional Black Friday playbook still generates major surges for core retail segments, value-oriented formats and convenient, low-cost treats are playing a larger role in shaping how and where shoppers decide to spend. The data points to a consumer who is highly selective: willing to pursue standout deals, but just as focused on stretching their dollars and fitting purchases into packed holiday routines.
The map below shows retail visits on Black Friday (November 28, 2025) compared to each DMA’s year-to-date daily average. Purple areas indicate DMAs where Black Friday traffic rose more than the national average increase of 53.0%, while yellow areas represent markets where the surge fell below that benchmark.
Once again, the Midwest led the country in in-person Black Friday activity, far outpacing major coastal metros. The region’s strong turnout reflects how sharply Midwestern shoppers respond to clear, compelling value. For retailers and dining brands hoping to grow their footprint in the region, the takeaway is straightforward: transparent pricing, well-structured promotions, and messaging that reinforces everyday value can go a long way in capturing visits.
Several value-focused categories – thrift stores, wholesale clubs, off-price retailers, and discount & dollar stores – posted year-over-year (YoY) visit gains, even though their increases relative to typical daily traffic were relatively modest. This YoY growth on a day defined by aggressive discount-hunting suggests that these formats are becoming meaningful Black Friday destinations – and could indicate that more consumers are motivated by the final price they pay rather than the size of the advertised markdown.
Still, the data also makes clear that traditional Black Friday winners can draw crowds. Mid-tier department stores, beauty, sporting goods, and electronics all saw outsized visit spikes relative to their YTD averages, with department stores more than doubling typical weekend traffic.
Together, the data paints a picture of a holiday season defined by careful tradeoffs: Even amid macroeconomic pressure, mid-tier retailers can still draw high-intent shoppers – especially if offering the right discount. At the same time, value-focused formats are gaining traction among consumers watching their budgets more closely.
Consumers’ in-store behavior over Black Friday also reflected a strong focus on value. The share of longer visits (30+ minutes) increased across all four Black Friday mainstays – mid-tier department stores, beauty & self care, sporting goods, and electronics – reflecting a consumer base willing to invest more time to secure the right deal. Many shoppers likely used in-store browsing as a strategy to compare options, verify value, and assemble baskets made up of multiple smaller-ticket items rather than focusing their spend on a single high-priced purchase. The uptick in extended visits suggests that Black Friday is becoming as much about maximizing savings as it is about fulfilling gift lists – an approach aligned with shoppers’ heightened price sensitivity and the growing emphasis on strategic, mission-driven store trips.
Overall, the rise in longer visits also underscores that value – not just discounts – shaped the in-store experience this year, prompting consumers to slow down, evaluate options, and leave with fuller baskets.
Coffee chains were one of Black Friday’s most unexpected standouts, with visits to drive-thru forward formats in particular (Dutch Bros, 7 Brew Coffee, and Scooter's Coffee) surging 47.5% to 52.6% higher than their YTD daily average. These spikes show how strongly convenient, low-ticket beverages resonate on a day otherwise dominated by big purchases and aggressive deal-hunting.
The Black Friday visit boosts also reveal that, even as budgets tighten, consumers continue to make space for small, affordable indulgences – especially those that fit naturally into a day of errands and shopping. For coffee chains, this underscores the value of speed, seamless access, and timely seasonal offerings. For retailers, it highlights the role food-and-beverage stops play in the broader holiday journey, creating opportunities for cross-promotion and helping stabilize traffic around peak shopping windows.
As the holiday season continues, the trends emerging from Black Friday suggest retailers should prepare for a consumer defined by cautious but purposeful spending. Regions that respond most strongly to value, categories anchored in everyday affordability, and concepts that offer convenience and small indulgences all appear well positioned to capture incremental holiday visits. Retailers that adapt with localized value messaging, balanced promotional strategies, and partnerships or offerings that align with shoppers’ broader journeys stand to benefit as consumers prioritize both savings and ease.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Home-cooked meals may anchor the holidays, yet dining out remains a key part of the seasonal rhythm. Examining how visits trended last year helps illuminate which segments could gain the most traction this December and where holiday dining demand may concentrate.
While the holiday season is a major period for retail, some dining segments also experience a notable lift. Visits to the coffee category outperformed their 2024 weekly average in November, likely boosted by the appeal of leading chains' holiday menu and the popularity of Starbucks' Red Cup Day. The category saw another surge the week before Christmas, as shoppers sought out caffeine to power through last-minute errands.
Full-service restaurants tend to see visitation build towards the end of the holiday season – visits were 7.1% higher than average the week of December 16th, 2024, and remained elevated during the week of Christmas, even as other dining categories experienced slight dips. This likely reflects the shift from workday and errand-driven routines to family gatherings, out-of-town guests, and special-occasion meals. Meanwhile, categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to soften as commuting, shopping, and other everyday behaviors pause for the holiday.
Meanwhile, fast-casual and quick-service segments trended lower during holidays than they did during the rest of the year – though the week before Christmas bucked the trend, likely lifted by shoppers stopping for quick meals amid last-minute errands.
Within full-service dining, upscale and fine-dining concepts were the clear standouts of the season. The segment saw steady gains throughout December, culminating in a 33.7% jump the week of December 16th and remaining elevated into Christmas week – a pattern likely supported by companies and large groups booking higher-end restaurants for end-of-year celebrations.
Breakfast-first chains, by contrast, showed softer performance for most of the period and only saw meaningful lifts during family-focused holiday weeks, when out-of-town visitors and holiday traditions drove more morning and brunch outings.
Casual dining and eatertainment concepts also experienced holiday-related bumps, but in distinct ways. Casual dining saw a brief boost the week of November 11th, likely tied to Veterans Day promotions, and then a more meaningful lift the week before Christmas as consumers grabbed convenient meals while running last-minute errands. Eatertainment venues, on the other hand, peaked during Christmas week, benefiting from families seeking activity-based outings once holiday gatherings were underway. While neither category matched the sustained strength of upscale dining, each captured demand consistent with the role they play in the holiday dining cycle.
Looking ahead to this year’s holiday season, the year-over-year dining patterns point to a dining landscape led once again by upscale and fine dining. This segment is the only one showing consistent momentum heading into November, with steady gains that suggest another strong December for premium full-service concepts.
The rest of the full-service category is entering the season on more uneven footing. Breakfast-first chains, eatertainment venues, and casual dining brands are all tracking close to or below last year’s levels, with several weeks of declines and only brief periods of improvement. While the weeks of November 10th and 17th offer early signs of stabilization for some segments, the broader picture remains mixed.
Still, holiday dining behaviors typically shift sharply as Thanksgiving, Christmas travel, and family gatherings come into focus. If past patterns hold, all four segments may see meaningful late-season lifts – but upscale dining is the category best positioned to outperform as the holidays accelerate.
Upscale and fine dining, coffee, and breakfast-first chains demonstrated clear seasonal lifts last year. As December approaches, will these patterns re-emerge, or will consumer caution lead to wider pull-backs among the dining segment?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Thanksgiving brought a healthy rise in movie theater traffic while still trailing 2024’s exceptional highs. The gap points to a growing reality in the theatrical space: In 2025, audiences show up strongest when franchises – and preferably, multiple franchises at once – lead the way.
Thanksgiving reliably drives a surge in theater visits, as families seek shared holiday activities and studios lean into the demand by releasing family-friendly blockbusters. This year was no different, when the release of Wicked: For Good on November 21st and Zootopia 2 on November 26th – both installments in well-established franchises – helped fuel a holiday bump. Movie theater visits climbed 218% higher than the YTD average for a typical Wednesday on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, while Black Friday traffic rose 103.2% above the average Friday so far in 2025.
Still, movie theater traffic fell significantly short of 2024 levels, dropping 27.9% on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and 31.7% on Black Friday. These gaps underscore just how extraordinary last year’s slate was, when Wicked and Gladiator II opened the Friday before Thanksgiving, followed by Moana 2 the next Wednesday. These franchise titles – and, in the case of Wicked, a film backed by a major existing IP – produced unusually large attendance spikes throughout the 2024 holiday window.
Analyzing year-to-date traffic patterns at movie theaters reinforces just how dependent theaters have become on major franchise installments. Throughout 2025, nearly every pronounced traffic peak aligns with a franchise launch – from Captain America: Brave New World on Valentine’s Day to Minecraft in April, Jurassic World: Rebirth and Superman in July, and The Conjuring: Last Rites in September.
These weekends routinely spiked movie traffic over the release weekend – and the strongest releases produced multi-week periods of elevated visitation. As shown in the chart below, titles like Minecraft, Jurassic World, and the latest Mission: Impossible kept both weekday and weekend traffic meaningfully higher for two to four weeks – often until the next major blockbuster arrived.
The data suggests that moviegoing has shifted from a routine outing to an event-driven decision. Audiences aren’t heading to theaters just for the experience anymore – they go when a specific film feels worth the trip, typically a sequel or another piece of well-known IP. As a result, theaters no longer see steady week-to-week demand, though blockbusters can still drive weeks of elevated traffic.
As the holiday season continues, theaters have an opportunity to extend the strong, IP-driven momentum that has shaped 2025 so far. December brings a lineup of major sequels and family-friendly releases – including Avatar: Fire and Ash and The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, both arriving the Friday before Christmas. These titles are poised to draw large holiday audiences and, if recent patterns hold, generate multi-week lifts that support not only theaters but the broader mix of surrounding businesses.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
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1. Overall dining traffic is mostly flat, but growth is concentrated in specific areas.
While nationwide dining visits were nearly unchanged in early 2025, western states like Utah, Idaho, and Nevada showed moderate growth, while states in the Midwest and South, along with Washington D.C., saw declines.
2. Fine dining and coffee chains are growing through expansion, not just busier locations.
These two segments were the only ones to see an increase in total visits, but their visits-per-location actually decreased, indicating that opening new stores is the primary driver of their growth.
3. Higher-income diners are driving the growth in resilient categories.
The segments that saw visit growth—fine dining and coffee—also attracted customers with the highest median household incomes, suggesting that affluent consumers are still spending on dining despite economic headwinds.
4. Remote work continues to reshape dining habits.
The share of suburban customers at fine dining establishments has increased since 2019, while it has decreased for coffee chains. This reflects a shift towards "destination" dining closer to home and away from commute-based coffee runs.
5. Limited-service restaurants own the weekdays; full-service restaurants win the weekend.
QSR, fast casual, and coffee chains see the majority of their traffic from Monday to Friday, whereas casual and fine dining see a significant spike in visits on weekends.
6. Each dining segment dominates a specific time of day.
Consumer visits are highly predictable by the hour: coffee leads in the early morning, fast casual peaks at lunch, casual dining takes the afternoon, fine dining owns the dinner slot, and QSR captures the late-night crowd.
Overall dining visits held relatively steady in the first five months of 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) visits to the category down 0.5% for January to May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Most of the country saw slight declines (less than 2.0%), though some states and districts experienced larger drops: Washington, D.C, saw the largest visit gap (-3.6% YoY), followed by Kansas and North Dakota (-2.9%), Arkansas (-2.8%), Missouri and Kentucky (-2.6%), Oklahoma (-2.1%), and Louisiana (-2.0%).
Still, there were several pockets of moderate dining strength, specifically in the west of the United States. January to May 2025 dining visits in Utah, Idaho, and Nevada increased 1.8% to 2.4% YoY, while the coastal states saw traffic rise 0.6% (California) to 1.2% (Washington). Vermont also saw a slight increase in dining visits (+1.9%).
Diving into visit trends by dining segment shows that fine dining and coffee saw the strongest overall visit trends, with visits to the segments up 1.3% and 2.6% YoY, respectively, between January and May 2025. But visits per location trends were negative for both segments – a decline of 0.8% YoY for fine dining and 1.8% for coffee during the period – suggesting that much of the visit strength is due to expansions rather than more crowded restaurants and coffee shops.
In contrast, full-service casual dining saw overall visits decrease by 1.5%, while visits per location remained stable (+0.2%) YoY between January and May 2025. Several casual dining chains have rightsized in the past twelve months – including Red Lobster, TGI Fridays, and Outback Steakhouse – which impacted overall visit numbers. But the data seems to show that their rightsizing was effective, as the remaining locations successfully absorbed the traffic and maintained performance levels from the previous year. And the monthly data also provides much reason for optimism, with May traffic up both overall and on a visit per location basis – suggesting that the casual dining segment is well positioned for growth in the second half of 2025.
Meanwhile, QSR and fast casual chains saw similar minor visits per venue dips (-1.5% and -1.2%, respectively). At the same time, QSR also saw an overall visit dip (-0.8%) while traffic to fast casual chains increased slightly (+0.3%) – suggesting that the fast casual segment is expanding more aggressively than QSR. But the two segments decoupled somewhat in May, with overall traffic and visits per venue to fast casual chains up YoY while traffic remained flat and visits per venue fell slightly for QSR – perhaps due to the relatively greater affluence of fast casual's consumer base.
Analyzing the income levels of visitors to the various dining segments over time shows that each segment followed a slightly different trend – and the differences in visitor income may help explain some of the current traffic patterns.
The only three segments with YoY visit growth – casual dining, fine dining, and coffee – also had the highest captured market median household income (HHI). Although the median HHI in the captured market of upscale and fine dining chains fell after COVID, it has risen back steadily over time and now stands at $98.0K – slightly higher than the $97.1K median HHI between January to May 2019. This may explain the segment's resilience in the face of wider consumer headwinds. Meanwhile, the median HHI at fast casual and coffee chains has fallen slightly, perhaps due to aggressive expansions in the space – including Dave's Hot Chicken and Dutch Bros – which likely broadened the reach of the segments, driving visits up and trade area median HHI down.
Like fine dining, casual dining also saw its trade area median HHI increase slightly over time – but the segment has still been facing visit dips. This could mean that, even though consumers trading down to casual dining may have boosted the trade area median HHI for the segment, it still might not have been enough to make up for the customers lost to tighter budgets.
The QSR segment saw its trade area median HHI remain remarkably steady – and visits to the segment have also been quite consistent – staying between $70.6K and $70.9K between 2019 and 2025 – which may explain why the segment's visits remained relatively stable YoY.
Diving into the psychographic segmentation shows that, although the fine dining segment attracted visitors from the highest-income areas between January and May 2025, fast casual chains drew the highest share of visitors from suburban areas, followed by casual dining and coffee. QSR attracted the smallest share of suburban visitors, with just 30.5% of the category's captured market between January and May 2025 belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive suburban segments.
But looking at the data since 2019 reveals small but significant changes in the shares of suburban audiences in some categories' captured markets. And although the percentage changes are slight, these represent hundreds of thousands of diners every year.
The data shows that shares of suburban segments in the captured markets of fine dining chains have increased, while their share in the captured market of coffee chains has decreased. The shares of suburban visitors to QSR, fast casual, and casual chains have remained relatively steady.
This may suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent rise of remote and hybrid work models are still impacting consumer dining habits, benefiting destination-worthy experiences in suburban locales such as fine dining chains while reducing the necessity of daily coffee runs that were often tied to commuting and office work. Meanwhile, the stability in QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments could indicate that these categories continue to meet consistent suburban demand for convenience and everyday dining, largely unaffected by the redistribution seen in the fine dining and coffee sectors.
Although QSR, fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, and coffee all fall under the wider dining umbrella, the data shows distinct consumer behavior patterns regarding visits to these five categories.
Limited service segments, including QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to see higher shares of visits on weekdays, while full service segments – casual dining and fine dining – receive higher shares of weekend visits. Diving deeper shows that QSR has the largest share of weekday visits, with 72.3% of traffic coming in between Monday and Friday, followed by fast casual (69.8% of visits on weekdays) and coffee (69.4% of visits on weekdays.) Looking at trends within the work week shows that QSR receives a slightly larger visit share between Monday and Thursday compared to the other limited service segments. Meanwhile, coffee seems to receive the smallest share of Friday visits – 16.3% compared to 17.0% for fast casual and 17.2% for QSR.
On the full-service side, casual dining and fine dining chains have relatively similar shares of weekend visits (39.0% and 38.8%, respectively), but fine dining also sees an uptick of visits on Fridays (with 19.1% of weekly visits) as consumers choose to start the weekend on a festive note.
Hourly visit patterns also show variability between the segments. Coffee is the unsurprising leader of early visits, with 14.6% of visits taking place before 8 AM and, almost two-thirds (64.9%) of visits taking place before 2 PM. Fast casual leads the lunch rush (29.4% of visits between 11 AM and 2 PM), casual dining chains receive the largest share of afternoon (2 PM to 5 PM) visits, and fine dining chains receive the largest share of dinner visits, with almost 70% of visits taking place between 5 PM and 11 PM. QSR leads the late night visit share – 4.1% of visits take place between 11 PM and 5 AM – followed by casual dining chains (3.2% late night and overnight visit share), likely due to the popularity of 24-hour diners.
This suggests that each dining segment effectively "owns" a different part of the day, from the morning coffee ritual and the quick lunch break to the leisurely evening meal and late-night cravings.
An analysis of average visit duration also reveals a small but lasting shift in post-pandemic dining behavior. Between January and May 2025, the average dwell time for nearly every dining segment was shorter than during the same period in 2019. This efficiency trend is evident across limited-service categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee shops, suggesting a continued emphasis on speed and convenience.
The one notable exception to this trend is upscale and fine dining, where the average visit duration has actually increased compared to pre-COVID levels. This may suggest that, while visits to most segments have become more transactional, consumers are treating fine dining more as an extended, deliberate experience, reinforcing its position as a destination-worthy occasion.
1. The Midwest is the only region where Black Friday retail visits outpace Super Saturday.
But several major Midwestern markets, including Chicago and Detroit, actually see higher shopper turnout on Super Saturday.
2. Holiday season demographic shifts also vary across regions.
Nationwide, electronics stores see a slight uptick in median household income (HHI) in December – yet in certain markets, electronics retailers such as Best Buy see a drop in captured market median HHI during this period.
3. Back-to-school shopping starts earliest for clothing and office supplies retailers in the South Central region, likely tied to earlier school schedules.
But back-to-school visits surge higher for these retailers in the Northeast later in the season.
4. The share of college students among back-to-school shoppers varies by region.
In August 2024, “Collegians” made up the largest share of Target’s back-to-school shopping crowd in New England, and the smallest in the West.
5. Mother’s Day drives the biggest restaurant visit spikes in the Middle Atlantic Region, while Father’s Day sees its biggest boosts in the South Atlantic states.
Mother’s Day diners also tend to travel farther to celebrate, suggesting an extra effort to treat mom.
6. Western states proved particularly responsive to McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion.
During the week of A Minecraft Movie’s release, the promotion drove significantly higher visit spikes in the West than in the Eastern U.S.
Retailers rely on promotional events to fuel sales – from classics like Black Friday and back-to-school sales to unique limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture collaborations. Yet consumer preferences and behavior can vary significantly by region, making it critical to tailor campaigns to local markets.
This report dives into the data to reveal how consumers in 2025 are responding to major retail promotions, exploring both broad regional trends and more localized market-level nuances. Where is Black Friday most popular, and which areas see a bigger turnout on Super Saturday? Where are restaurants most packed on Mother’s Day, and where on Father’s Day? Which region kicks off back-to-school shopping – and where are August shoppers most likely to be college students? And also – which part of the country went all out on McDonald’s recent Minecraft LTO?
Read on to find out.
Promotions aimed at boosting foot traffic on key holiday season milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday are central to retailers’ strategies across industries. The day after Thanksgiving and the Saturday before Christmas typically rank among in-store retail’s busiest days, last year generating foot traffic surges of 50.1% and 56.3%, respectively, compared to a 12-month daily average. And
But a closer look at regional data shows that these promotions land differently across the country. In the Midwest, Black Friday outperformed Super Saturday last year, fueling the nation’s biggest post-Thanksgiving retail visit spike – a testament to the milestone’s strong local appeal. Meanwhile, in the Western U.S. Black Friday trailed well behind Super Saturday, though both milestones drove smaller upticks than in other regions. And in New England and the South Central states, Super Saturday achieved its biggest impact, suggesting that last-minute holiday specials may resonate especially well in that area.
Digging deeper into major Midwestern hubs shows that even within a single region, holiday promotions can produce widely different responses.
In St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, for example, consumers followed the broader Midwestern pattern, flocking to stores on Black Friday exhibiting less enthusiasm for Super Saturday deals. By contrast, Chicago and Detroit saw Super Saturday edge ahead, with Chicago’s Black Friday peak falling below the nationwide average of 50.1%. examples highlight the power of local preferences to shape holiday campaign results.
Holiday promotions don’t just drive visit spikes; they also spark subtle but significant changes in the demographic profiles of brick-and-mortar shoppers, expanding many retailers’ audiences during peak periods. And these shifts, too, can vary widely across regions.
Outlet malls, department stores, and beauty & self-care chains, for instance, which typically attract higher-income consumers, tend to see slight declines in the median household incomes (HHI) of their visitor bases in December. This dip may be due to promotions drawing in more mid- and lower-income shoppers during the peak holiday season. Electronics stores and superstores, on the other hand, which generally serve a less affluent base, see modest upticks in median HHI in the lead-up to Christmas.
But once again, drilling further down into regional chain-level data reveals more nuanced regional patterns. Take Best Buy, a leading holiday season electronics destination. In some of the chain’s biggest, more affluent markets – including New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago – the big-box retailer sees small dips in median HHI during December. But in Atlanta and Houston – also relatively affluent, but slightly less so – December saw a minor HHI uptick, hinting at a stronger holiday rush from higher-income shoppers in those cities.
Back-to-school promotions also play a pivotal role in the retail calendar, with superstores, apparel chains, office supply stores and others all vying for shopper attention. And though summer markdowns drive increased foot traffic nationwide, both the timing of these shifts and the composition of the back-to-school shopping crowd differ among regions.
Analyzing weekly fluctuations in regional foot traffic to clothing and office supplies stores shows, for example, that back-to-school shopping picks up earliest in the South Central region, likely due to earlier school start dates.
But the biggest visit peaks occur in the Northeast – with clothing retailer foot traffic surging in New England in late August, and office supplies stores seeing an even bigger surge in the Middle Atlantic region in early September. Retailers and advertisers can plan their back-to-school deals around these differences, targeting promotions to local trends.
Though K-12 families drive much of the back-to-school rush, college student shoppers also play a substantial role. And here, too, their participation varies by region.
For instance, the “Collegians” segment accounted for 2.2% of Target’s shopper base nationwide over the past year – rising to 3.0% in August 2024. But regionally, the share of “Collegians” soared as high as 4.0% in New England versus just 2.2% in the West. So while retailers in New England may choose to lean into the college vibe, those in Western states may place greater emphasis on families with children.
When it comes to dining, Mother’s Day and Father’s Day are the busiest days of the year for the full-service restaurant (FSR) category, as families treat their parents to a hassle-free meal out. And eateries nationwide capitalize on this trend by offering a variety of deals and promotions that add a little extra charm (and value) to the experience.
Nationwide, Mother’s Day drives more FSR foot traffic than Father’s Day – except in parts of the Pacific Northwest, where Father’s Day traditions run especially deep. Still, the size of these holiday boosts varies substantially by region.
This year, for instance, Mother’s Day (May 11, 2025) drove the largest FSR surge in the Middle Atlantic, with the South Atlantic and Midwest not far behind. Father’s Day, by contrast, saw its biggest lift in the South Atlantic. Mother’s Day proved least resonant in the West, whereas Father’s Day had its smallest impact in New England.
Dining behavior also differs between the two occasions. Mother’s Day celebrants display a slight preference for morning FSR visits and a bigger one for afternoon visits, while Father’s Day crowds favor evenings – perhaps reflecting a preference for sports bars and later dinners with dad. Another interesting nuance: On Mother’s Day, a larger share of FSR visits originate from between 3 and 50 miles away compared to Father’s Day, suggesting that families go the extra mile – sometimes literally – to celebrate mom.
While established dates like Black Friday or Mother’s Day naturally spur promotions, brands can also craft their own moments with limited-time offers (LTOs). And much like holiday campaigns, these retailer-led events can produce varied outcomes across different regions.
Fast food restaurants, for example, have leaned heavily on limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture tie-ins to fuel buzz in what remains a challenging overall market. And McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion, launched on April 1, 2025 to coincide with the April 3 release of A Minecraft Move, shows just how impactful the practice can be.
Nationally, the Minecraft promotion (featuring offerings for both kids and adults) drove a 6.9% lift in visits during the movie’s opening week. But the impact of the promotion was far from uniform across the U.S. Many of McDonald’s Western markets – including Utah, Idaho, Nevada, California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon – recorded visit lifts above 10.0%. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw a 2.1% dip, and several other Eastern states registered modest gains below 3.0%. The McDonald’s example illustrates the power of regional tastes to shape the success of even the most creative pop-culture collabs.
Whether it’s properly timing holiday and back-to-school discounts, recognizing where Mother’s Day or Father’s Day will resonate more, or pinpointing markets that respond best to pop-culture tie-ins, the data reveals that effective promotions depend heavily on local nuances. And by analyzing regional and DMA-level trends, retailers and advertisers can craft compelling, relevant campaigns that heighten engagement where it matters most.
