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In December 2023, Placer.ai released two white papers: How Physical Stores Help DNBs Thrive and East Coast Migration Hubs. Below is a taste of our findings. To read more data-driven consumer research, visit our library.
DNBs – Digitally Native Brands – refer to retailers that began their retail journey exclusively online, selling their product line direct-to-consumers through their owned digital channel. But although all these businesses start out as a pure e-commerce play, many DNBs eventually move offline, choosing to leverage the various benefits of brick-and-mortar channels to grow their business even further.
Analyzing year-over-year (YoY) data for Q3 2023 shows that, while many retailers struggled, DNB leaders such as Vuori, Allbirds, Everlane, and Warby Parker all saw significant growth in quarterly visits per venue. Many of these brands also underwent significant expansions, but the increase in visits per venue reveals that many of the DNBs are seeing more crowded stores despite the increase in number of overall venues. The success of these brands in operating stores that consumers want to keep visiting – even in times of economic headwinds – suggests that DNBs are particularly well positioned to take advantage of the diverse benefits of offline stores.
How Physical Stores Help DNBs Thrive uses location intelligence to reveal the different brick-and-mortar strategies helping DNBs broaden their reach, build their brand, and acquire new audiences. Several DNBs are building massive store fleets, while others focus on a couple well-placed stores – and some focus on temporary pop-ups to reap the benefits of physical stores without the long-term commitment.
Read the full report here to discover the diverse methods that digitally native brands are enlisting to to drive growth through brick-and-mortar expansion.
Much has been written about the recent population outflows from New York, Massachusetts, and other northeastern states. But many states on the East Coast – including Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, North and South Carolina, and Florida – are actually seeing influxes of newcomers.
Each of these states – and each of the metropolitan areas attracting relocators within them – offers its own set of benefits. But those willing to make the move often fit a similar profile – younger individuals or families looking for a more favorable housing market, better schools, or more job opportunities.
East Coast Migration Hubs looks at several states and metro areas on the East Coast to explore the factors driving migration to these emerging hubs. Using location data to understand who is moving, and harnessing Niche’s Neighborhood Grades dataset to identify differences between origin and destination areas, the report seeks to shed light on recent domestic migration trends in the Eastern United States.
Read the full report here to discover the factors driving domestic migration to several popular relocation destinations on the East Coast.
For more data-driven consumer research, visit our library.
Last year was marked by inflation and consumer cutbacks as shoppers adjusted to price hikes across key retail and dining categories. But despite the challenges, many categories and retailers not only weathered the storm but positively thrived under the ongoing headwinds.
Now, with a new year offering fresh opportunities for growth, what are the retail and dining segments positioned for success in 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Last year’s high grocery prices led to a surge in foot traffic to affordable supermarket chains – but food-away-from-home inflation also seems to have driven visits to high-end grocers. Visits to chains such as New York-based Uncle Giuseppe’s, Illinois-based Cermak Fresh Market, and California-based Lazy Acres saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit increases as consumers sought specialty ingredients to recreate restaurant-quality dishes at home. Rising interest in sustainability, natural products, and organic ingredients – especially among Gen-Z – likely helped drive traffic growth as well.
But the success of specialty grocers isn’t just coming from singles willing to splurge on the latest influencer-backed food trend – trade area demographic data reveals that families with children are overrepresented in the captured market trade area of all three specialty grocers analyzed. With restaurant prices likely increasing slightly in 2024, consumers looking to feed their families tasty dishes without breaking the bank – or shoppers feeding the growing demand for natural food products – will likely keep visits to specialty grocers high in the coming year.
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Along with the rise in specialty grocers selling natural and organic ingredients, restaurants focusing on whole, healthy foods are also seeing a boost – and the segment is positioned for further growth in 2024. Consumers are flocking to concepts such as Mendocino Farms, honeygrow, and Crisp & Green that boast fresh ingredients and made-from-scratch dishes – and these chains are all expanding to meet the growing demand.
Visits to healthy dining concepts are no longer reserved for special occasions – weekday foot traffic is also on the rise, with all three dining brands analyzed seeing a YoY rise in the share of Monday to Friday visits. With employees slowly but surely returning to the office and looking to grab a nutritious lunch mid-day or meet up with friends for a balanced dinner on their way home, demand for health-focused dining concepts is likely to continue growing in 2024.
Dave’s Hot Chicken was one of 2023’s biggest dining success stories, and the chain was not the only fried chicken franchise attracting significant foot traffic. Raising Cane’s, which has been on a roll for several years, and Huey Magoo’s Chicken Tenders – which serves grilled chicken and other fare alongside its signature fried tenders – are also taking the country by storm.
Foot traffic to the chains surged in 2023, driven in part by aggressive expansions. But zooming into November 2023 data reveals that average visits per venue are also up YoY, despite all three brands’ much larger store fleets – indicating that the fried chicken boom is meeting a ready demand. It seems, then, that while some diners will favor healthy foods in the new year, other consumers are likely to continue driving visits to fried chicken chains in 2024.
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Fried chicken isn’t the only indulgence positioned to thrive in 2024. Other affordable luxuries raked in visits last year and are likely to continue seeing growth in the year ahead.
Although inflation appears to be cooling, prices across many goods and services still remain elevated, with some shoppers still putting off large purchases. But consumers are willing to splurge on small treats that won’t break the bank, and tasty snacks and food items – from craft doughnuts to gourmet deli sandwiches to specialty coffee concoctions – could provide the perfect affordable and guilt-free pick-me-up. Parlor Doughnuts, Pickleman’s Gourmet Cafe, and Dutch Bros. Coffee are some of the chains that benefited from this trend in 2023 and will likely continue to grow in the new year.
The trade areas of the three chains analyzed all include a larger-than-average share of “non-family households” – people living with unrelated individuals. As high housing costs continue to lead more U.S. adults to live with roommates, the number of consumers looking to escape their daily grind with an affordable indulgence is likely to increase in 2024 – and drive even larger visit surges to chains offering budget-friendly treats.
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Non-comestible affordable indulgence such as tanning salons, hair-removal parlors, and eyelash salons are also seeing a rise in visits that will likely continue in the coming year. Deka Lash, Tan Republic, Glo Tanning, and LaserAway are some of the chains that saw their YoY visits increase significantly in 2023, and the growth does not appear to be slowing down.
All four chains’ trade areas included a larger share of Gen-Z visitors (aged 18-24) than the share of 18-24 year olds nationwide. And since, despite inflation, younger shoppers tend to spend more than the average American on beauty and self care – and Gen Z’s spending power is only expected to grow in the coming year – personal grooming chains are well positioned to succeed even further in 2024.
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Another personal care-adjacent segment slated for growth in 2024 is themed fitness. Gyms and studios that focus on a particular type of activity or fitness regimen – such as climbing, yoga, pilates, or HIIT are seeing their visits skyrocket, with both the number of monthly visits and the average visit frequency on the rise YoY.
The rising popularity of themed fitness concepts may be aided by the sense of community fostered by many of these chains. Touchstone Climbing organizes meetup groups geared towards specific audiences, while F45 Training prides itself on facilitating a sense of purpose and belonging among its members. And yoga and pilates classes have long been recognized for their capacity for connection-building.
With loneliness on the rise and many consumers looking to incorporate a fun, social element into their fitness routines, the demand for themed fitness concepts will likely keep on growing in 2024.
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Cost-effectiveness does not necessarily mean cheap. And while some retail segments to watch in 2024 stand out for their low price points, other segments that offer consumers a particularly strong value proposition also appear well positioned to thrive in the coming year. Chains such as Theory, Anthropologie, and Marine Layer all saw YoY increases in monthly visits every month of 2023, perhaps aided by the “quiet luxury” trend that drove demand for high-quality, non-ostentatious fashion. And while these brands may not offer the cheapest price, the focus on good craftsmanship and premium fabrics may help consumers feel better about shelling out a little more for each item.
All three brands analyzed have a significant presence in California. Diving into their captured market in the Golden State reveals that visitors to these upscale apparel retailers tend to be wealthier and are more likely to live alone when compared to the average California resident. So even as many companies look to cater to the increasing share of budget-conscious consumers, other retailers willing to invest in quality materials and offer a premium customer experience can still thrive in 2024 by meeting the needs of more affluent audiences.
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From healthy foods to fried fare, and from affordable treats to higher-priced apparel, the diversity of retail and dining segments to watch in 2024 highlights the many opportunities for success in the coming year. Where will visits skyrocket? Which brands will hit it out of the park?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
Streets adorned in holiday lights, bustling Christmas stores and pop-ups, and local festivals all make the holiday season a truly magical time of year. So with Christmas in the rearview mirror, we dug into the data to explore some of the most beloved holiday spots throughout the country. Who visits Christmas stores? How do holiday events affect foot traffic to local hangouts? And what impact do annual parades have on major retail corridors like Chicago’s Mag Mile?
We dove into the data to find out.
Bronner’s Christmas Wonderland in Frankenmuth, MI is the biggest Christmas store in the country – nay, the world. Spanning some 27 acres, the store carries everything from personalized holiday ornaments to Christmas trees. And the venue, which is open 361 days a year, has emerged as a true destination, where visitors can enjoy a taste of the holiday spirit and load up on all their Christmas essentials.
People visit Bronner’s all year round – but foot traffic to the store really picks up during the holiday season: Between November 1st and December 21st, 2023, the holiday wonderland drew a stunning 438.0% more daily visits, on average, than it did between January and October of this year.
Drilling down deeper into the data shows that much of this visit bump is driven by locals, who flock to Bronner’s during the Christmas season. Throughout the year, Bronner’s draws tourists from all over the country – and in the summer, most visits to the shop are by shoppers living more than 100 miles away. Individuals living within 100 miles of Bronner’s tend to visit closer to Christmas, when the time comes to stock up on supplies for the holiday. And as the holiday approaches, the share of true locals in Bronner’s visitor base – i.e. those living less than 50 miles away from the store – increases significantly.
As the Yuletide season kicks into gear, special holiday-themed pop-ups and happenings also spring up throughout the country, with bars, malls, and restaurants all hosting special events filled with holiday cheer.
One venue that goes all out for the holidays is Mozart’s Coffee Roasters, the lakeside Austin, TX coffee shop that’s been a local landmark since 1993. With free wifi, expansive seating, and bottomless coffee, Mozart’s is the perfect place for remote employees to get some work done. And with hundreds of artists performing at the venue each year and a weekly open mic night, it’s also a great place to go out in the evenings. In the run-up to Christmas, Mozart’s hosts its famed annual holiday lights show, replete with a Bavarian Marketplace, a silent disco, and this year, an actual piece of Taylor Swift’s dance floor.
During the light show, Mozart’s is positively teeming with customers: Since the start of the event this year (November 9th), the coffee shop drew 104.3% more daily visitors, on average, than it did between January 7th (the end of last year’s show) and November 8th, 2023. And unsurprisingly, foot traffic data shows that most of this visit bump is driven by evening customers: During most of the year, the majority of visits to Mozart’s take place before 6:00 PM, with 24.4% concentrated in the morning hours. But when the festival kicks off, this pattern reverses – with 66.7% of visits taking place between 6:00 PM and midnight.
Local parades and festivals are another mainstay of the holiday season. From New York’s iconic Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade to the Hollywood Christmas Parade in Los Angeles, cities across America draw massive crowds to streets decked out with holiday cheer.
One of the nation’s most timeless Christmas celebrations is Chicago’s Wintrust Magnificent Mile Lights Festival – an all-day bonanza that features a slew of booths and activities, a televised parade, and an impressive fireworks display. The festival, which famously illuminates the city with a million lights, is one of the Mag Mile’s prime events of the year. And comparing November 18th, 2023 foot traffic to the popular Chicago retail corridor – the day of the big event – to a September 1st 2023 baseline, shows that the festivities generated a tremendous 179.5% visit spike.
And a look at the demographic characteristics of visitors to the Mag Mile during the Lights Festival reveals that the celebration draws a more economically diverse crowd, as well as a larger share of families with children. Throughout most of this year, the median household income (HHI) of the Magnificent Mile’s captured market was relatively high – $85.4K. At the same time, the share of parental households in the retail corridor’s captured market increased from 21.0% to 23.4%, highlighting the event’s special appeal for families.
Everybody needs some seasonal cheer – and the sheer variety of holiday-themed events and festivals means there’s something for everybody. How will Christmas stores fare as the retail environment continues to evolve? And how will shifting urban landscapes impact local events, parades, and festivals in the years to come?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail and civic analyses to find out.
College students make up a small percentage of the overall U.S. population. But they often have money to spend – and back-to-college shopping is a significant driver of retail sales. This year in particular, students heading back to school were expected to spend record amounts on dorm decor, clothing, and other campus essentials. And since today’s college students make up a large chunk of tomorrow’s affluent consumers, retailers across industries are eager to cement positive relationships with the segment.
So with fall semester just under way, we dove into the data to explore the spending habits of today’s undergraduate young adults. When do they shop? What do they like to buy? And what can retailers do to get their attention?
To get a sense of when collegians tend to do the most shopping, we analyzed the monthly share of college students in the captured markets of select retailers and segments, using audience segmentation data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive. And the analysis revealed that student consumer behavior follows a clear seasonal pattern.
In 2019, the share of college students in the captured markets of big box superstores like Target and Walmart peaked in August, and to a lesser extent in June, July, and September, as collegians enjoyed their summer vacations and did their back-to-school shopping. Additional upticks emerged in January, when many students were on winter break. But during regular school months, when midterms, finals, and homework likely kept many students hunkered down in the library, their share in the chains’ captured markets was much lower. While this pattern was disrupted in the wake of COVID, it returned in full force in 2022. Similar seasonality arose when looking at wider segments like apparel and off-price retail, as well as various dining categories.
In addition to seasonality, the above graphs also appear to indicate that despite their tight budgets, collegians don’t necessarily prioritize price over everything else. So to further explore the shopping preferences of college kids, we examined the share of the #College segment in the captured markets of popular chains across categories.
Trade area data seems to indicate that university students shop at Target, frequent non-off-price-apparel chains, eat at fast-casual restaurants – and make up smaller shares of the customer bases of less expensive alternatives. Indeed, as hard-up as they may be, undergrads know how to splurge and are willing to pay for high quality stuff. They can’t get enough Urban Outfitters and love mid to higher range brands like Madewell and lululemon athletica.
At the same time, college students are highly oriented to thrift shops – especially those like Buffalo Exchange and Plato’s Closet, where they can sell their old clothes and snag stylish, name-brand items for a steal.
Of course, the share of collegians in the captured market of any given retailer or segment can also be impacted by the behavior of other demographics. For example, if a particular chain attracts an extremely broad audience, a lower relative share of college students may indicate that their presence is being offset by other segments. Still, while a small share of collegians in a chain’s trade area may not necessarily mean that the chain does not appeal to this group, a disproportionate share of students in a chain’s captured market is a strong indication that the brand is embraced by this demographic.
And chains which see a smaller share of college students among their customer base may draw an outsize proportion of undergrads during peak season. Walmart’s captured market, for example, was just 14.0% over-indexed for the #College segment between September 2022 and August 2023, compared to a nationwide baseline. But looking just at August 2023 – peak college Back to School shopping season – the share of #College students in its captured market was 94.0% higher than the nationwide average. Walmart also enjoyed higher-than-average shares of collegians in September, June, July, January, and to a lesser extent – October. Dollar Tree, too, attracted an outsize share of collegians in the summer and in January.
Collegian shopping habits are shaped by the rhythms of campus life. And while students are budget-conscious, they place a high premium on quality and are willing to spend money on things that are important to them. Brands that can lean into college students’ seasonal groove – while providing the products they crave at price points that don’t break the bank – will be poised to win over this demographic, gaining customers that may stay with them for life.
How will college spending habits continue to evolve as the school year progresses? Which brands will stand out as collegian favorites?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven insights to find out.
Marriott International, Inc. has long been a dominant player on the U.S. hospitality scene. The company boasts a wide-ranging portfolio of some 31 brands, running the gamut from luxury chains like The Ritz Carlton to more budget-friendly options like Courtyard by Marriott. And with more than 8,500 locations worldwide, including some 5,700 in the U.S., the hotel giant is continuing to expand its footprint.
Against this backdrop, Marriott International’s decision last May to launch the hospitality industry’s first media network – leveraging visitor data to let external brands advertise to its customers – should come as no surprise. With millions of customers passing through its doors each year, Marriott is particularly well-placed to help relevant advertising partners reach new audiences. The network, powered by Yahoo, offers both online and offline marketing opportunities, including in-room television and digital-screen promotions.
To better understand the potential reach of Marriott’s advertising network, we dove into the data to explore the characteristics and preferences of the people that visit the hospitality leader’s various brands and locations. By layering foot traffic data with demographic and psychographic metrics from STI: Popstats, AGS Behavior & Attitudes, and Experian’s Mosaic, we examined Marriott’s different captured markets, gaining insight into the habits, interests, and profiles of its customer bases.
*A chain or venue’s captured market refers to the population residing in its trade area, weighted to reflect the actual share of visits from each Census Block Group comprising the trade area.
Marriott’s brands are divided into three tiers: Luxury, Premium, and Select. And with something for everyone, the company’s customer base encompasses a wide swath of society – from budget-conscious families looking for inexpensive accommodations, to affluent singles on the hunt for high-end, luxury getaways. Marriott also runs several extended-stay venues, including Residence Inn and TownePlace Suites.
A look at the profiles of visitors to four different Marriott chains shows that, as expected, wealthier patrons tend to frequent the company’s luxury hotels, while less affluent customers tend to visit its more budget-oriented Select brands. But even the company’s less pricey offerings – such as Four Points by Sheraton (acquired by Marriott in 2016) – attract consumers from relatively affluent areas. And certain Select tier destinations, like Marriott’s Millennial and GenZ-oriented Moxy Hotels, draw higher-HHI travelers than some Premium brands.
The household compositions and consumer preferences of visitors to Marriott’s various brands also differ. Four Points stands out as a prime destination for families with children, as well as older couples – while Moxy attracts an outsize share of “Young City Solos.” Moxy and Ritz Carlton guests are more likely to be museum goers and use ride share apps like Lyft and Uber. And visitors to Four Points and Westin locations are more apt to be into DIY home improvement.
One Marriott chain that has been doing particularly well in recent months is Moxy Hotels, a brand squarely targeted at the “young at heart.” Positioned as an experiential destination – a place to play, and not just stay – Moxy Hotels’ website exudes youthfulness, inviting travelers to “PLAY ON #ATTHEMOXY,” and touting the chain’s fun communal spaces. The rooms are relatively compact and affordable, and at some locations, guests can check in at the bar and claim a complimentary cocktail.
And the chain, which boasts some 120 properties across 23 countries (including more than 30 in the U.S.), experienced positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout H1 2023. While some of this growth is undoubtedly due to the chain’s continued expansion, the average number of visits to each Moxy Hotel also increased. The consumer quest for fun experiences, which has propelled experiential models in retail and dining, appears to be leaving its mark on the hotel industry as well.
Moxy Hotel’s highly targeted experiential vibe may make it particularly attractive for advertisers interested in reaching younger consumers. But while Moxy targets a pretty specific demographic, the profile of its customers is far from uniform. Visitors to Moxy’s New Orleans Hotel, for example, are more likely to have a lower HHI and to include families with children than visitors to its Washington, D.C. and East Village (New York) venues. And while more than 60.0% of visitors to the East Village Moxy in H1 2023 were locals hailing from less than 30 miles away, 81.5% of visitors to the New Orleans Moxy came from further away.
Buoyed by a post-COVID travel boom that has seen people flocking back to hotels and airlines, Marriott International – along with its media network – appears poised for further growth. While the network will undoubtedly harness Marriott’s own first-party data, including from its Bonvoy loyalty program, location intelligence can offer additional layers of insight into the actual audiences it is likely to reach.
For more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
Although many dining chains have been challenged by recent economic headwinds, others are finding success. Adding itself to the list of restaurant winners in 2023 is CAVA – a growing Mediterranean fast-casual chain that recently filed for an initial public offering (IPO). We dove into the location analytics for CAVA to take a closer look at how the company is thriving in a turbulent economic climate and what lies ahead for the chain in its next chapter.
CAVA has shown a remarkable ability to drive foot traffic over the past couple of years. Since 2019, CAVA’s baseline visit growth has outperformed the fast-casual restaurant space nearly every month – with visits really taking off in 2021. The brand has been able to capitalize on growing suburban markets – accounting for 80% of locations – which may be contributing to the chain’s visit growth.
Visits to CAVA have skyrocketed. And like other fast-casual success stories, CAVA has embraced drive-thrus and invested in a streamlined in-store experience, both of which are likely contributing to at least some of the brand’s recent strength.
In addition to impressive visit growth, CAVA recorded a 12.8% revenue increase in 2022 compared to 2021 – no small feat considering the impact of inflation on overall restaurant traffic.
Zooming into visits per venue showcases CAVA’s strength even more clearly. CAVA’s visits-per-venue seem to follow industry trends – as overall fast-casual visits-per-venue fell year-over-year (YoY) between January and April 2023, CAVA’s visit-per-venue growth slowed as well. But although the direction was similar, the actual performance differed substantially, with the company significantly outperforming the wider fast-casual category.
CAVA’s YoY monthly visits per venue have been up since January 2023 – a particularly impressive feat in light of the chain’s continued expansion, and an indication that new locations are driving traffic despite the current economic environment. So, while CAVA appears to be affected by broader restaurant trends, the brand remains far ahead of the fast-casual dining space.
CAVA’s bold brick-and-mortar strategy is part of the reason why it has been able to get ahead of the pack in the fast-casual category. The company acquired Zoës Kitchen in 2018 and has since rebranded almost all Zoës Kitchen locations as CAVA restaurants. Such a strategy is relatively rare in the restaurant industry, but location analytics show that the move has paid off.
Since Q1 2021, CAVA’s YoY visits per venue have consistently outperformed visits-per-venue at the remaining Zoës Kitchen locations. This not only validates CAVA’s decision to phase out the Zoës Kitchen brand but also suggests that CAVA resonates with Zoës Kitchen diners who continue to visit a location when it becomes a CAVA restaurant.
CAVA’s IPO announcement is a welcome next step for one of the fastest-growing fast-casual chains. With a focused expansion strategy and an eye on growing markets, there may be no telling how far the company can go.
For updates and more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
