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In this blog, we dive into the latest location analytics and demographic data for luxury retailers and high-end department stores and take a closer look at consumer behavior in the upscale shopping space.
Over the past year, the Placer.ai Luxury Retail Index – including brands like Louis Vuitton, Tiffany & Co., and Chanel – saw year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth during crucial shopping seasons. May and June 2023 had significant increases in YoY visits, perhaps due to an influx of recreational shoppers on summer vacation, and July saw an uptick as well. YoY visits peaked again in November and December, likely reflecting the popularity of upscale retail corridors during the all-important holiday shopping season.
Some of this strength may be a result of affluent consumers refocusing their shopping on the U.S.: In 2022, many high-income shoppers chose to purchase big-ticket items abroad due to various economic benefits. But by 2023, demand for domestic luxury retail appeared to rebound, as some upscale retail clients “repatriated” their discretionary dollars.
To be sure, visit gaps re-emerged in some months of early 2024 – though these are partly attributable to factors like January’s unusually stormy weather and an April calendar shift. (April 2024 had one fewer Saturday than April 2023, providing less opportunity for visits in the highly discretionary category). But March 2024 also saw YoY visit growth. And given how well luxury retailers performed during their busiest months of year, the category may very well rally once again heading into the summer.
Recent location intelligence also offers encouraging signs from the high-end department store space.
Like luxury retailers, high-end department stores saw narrowing visit gaps during the peak holiday shopping season – with Saks Fifth Avenue seeing a YoY uptick in November 2024, and Neiman Marcus seeing one in December.
In March 2024, YoY traffic turned positive for Nordstrom (3.3%), Bloomingdale’s (3.1%), and Neiman Marcus (3.1%), while Saks Fifth Avenue had just a -0.6% visit gap. And although April 2024 was a challenging month for the retailers, perhaps due in part to the calendar shift mentioned above, all four upscale department stores outperformed the traditional apparel category – another indication that high-end department stores may be poised for a comeback.
Analyzing demographic changes in the captured markets of both luxury brands and high-end department stores indicates that increasingly affluent consumers are the main drivers of visits to the segment. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
Over the last four quarters, visitors to luxury retailers and high-end department stores came from areas with higher median household incomes (HHIs) than in previous years. For example, during the period between Q2 2023 and Q1 2024, the median HHI of Bloomingdale’s captured market was $122.1K, an increase from $119.7K between April 2022 and March 2023, and $117.3K from April 2021 to March 2022.
In the face of recent inflationary pressures, aspirational luxury shoppers (who tend to be slightly less affluent) are likely quicker to adjust their behavior and trade down to more affordable brands. Meanwhile, prestige luxury shoppers – those with the highest incomes – tend to be relatively resilient, and so are able to continue shopping at their favorite luxury brands, driving up the HHI in these retailers’ trade areas.
Luxury retailers and high-end department stores have had recent foot traffic successes, while their clientele has become increasingly affluent. Will these brands continue their upward visit trajectories – and how will they leverage affluent foot traffic going forward?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Discretionary retail has faced its fair share of headwinds over the past few years, from pandemic-related restrictions to inflation. And while prices have stabilized, subdued consumer confidence continues to weigh on non-essential segments. But even in this challenging environment, some companies, like Ulta Beauty, are continuing to see visit growth, while others, like Gap Inc. and its portfolio of apparel brands, are making a comeback.
With Q2 2024 well underway, we take a look at the foot traffic patterns for these companies to see how they are faring.
In 2020, Placer.ai predicted that Ulta Beauty would be an unstoppable force in beauty retail – and the chain has impressed ever since. Over the past several years, Ulta has been on a consistent upward visit trajectory, propelled by strong demand for affordable luxuries (the so-called “Lipstick Effect”), and consumer interest in self-care.
And though the pace of Ulta’s tremendous YoY visit growth has moderated somewhat in recent months, the beauty giant continues to thrive – drawing even more visitors in early 2024 than during the equivalent period of last year. Between January and April 2024, YoY visits to the beauty retailer remained consistently elevated, outperforming the wider Beauty & Wellness space.
The fashion segment has experienced rising prices and persistent inflation over the past few years, leading to a new era of discount and thrift shopping. And iconic apparel retailers like Gap Inc – operator of Gap, Old Navy, Athleta, and Banana Republic – have not been immune to the challenges facing the category.
But through a combination of high-profile hirings and revitalized branding efforts, Gap Inc. has been readying itself for a comeback. In Q4 2023, the retailer announced stronger-than-expected results, driven primarily by Gap and Old Navy. And recent foot traffic to the company’s largest brands provides further evidence that its turnaround efforts may be starting to bear fruit.
During the all-important November and December shopping season last year, Gap and Old Navy saw YoY visits hold steady or increase, outpacing the wider Apparel space. In January 2024, visits to the two chains declined in the wake of an Arctic blast that kept many shoppers at home. But in February, Gap enjoyed a 0.7% YoY visit bump, while Old Navy saw just a mild drop – less than that of the overall Apparel category. In March 2024, both Gap and Old Navy enjoyed strong YoY visit growth, far outperforming overall Apparel – likely driven by sales events held by each brand. And though April saw YoY visits decline once again, with the two chains falling behind Apparel, drilling down into weekly data offers a different perspective.
Both Gap and Old Navy started off April with lackluster YoY performance, perhaps due in part to the comparison to an early April 2023 that included Easter weekend. But towards the end of April and beginning of May, Gap and Old Navy’s’ visit gaps narrowed – with some weeks seeing positive YoY visit growth, and with the two chains once again either nearly on par with, or outperforming, overall Apparel.
Gap Inc. itself is bullish about what the next year holds in store, with big names like Zak Posen joining the Gap family in hopes of propelling the company forward. Though it may be premature to declare an end to the troubles that have plagued the clothier in recent years, early 2024 foot traffic provides further evidence that the company is heading in the right direction.
Ulta continues to experience visit growth, highlighting Beauty’s enduring appeal. Meanwhile, Gap and Old Navy are witnessing narrowed visit gaps and some weekly visit growth.
Is the Apparel segment making a comeback? Can the Beauty segment sustain its positive momentum indefinitely?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up to date with the latest retail developments.
We dove into the data to check in with specialty discount chains Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below. How did they fare in early 2024? And what can the two brands’ recent performance tell us about what lies in store for them in the months ahead?
A quest for bargains and the promise of unexpected finds have kept Discount & Dollar Store shoppers coming so far in 2024. Despite lapping a strong 2023, foot traffic to Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below remained consistently above last year’s levels between January and April 2024, partly due to the chains’ continued expansions.
Though both chains draw Easter shoppers with special seasonal offerings, Five Below’s primary focus on low-ticket recreational merchandise makes it a natural destination for shoppers eager to fill their baskets with candy and other inexpensive holiday items. And Q1 2024 foot traffic to the chain appeared to be shaped by Easter shopping patterns. The brand’s YoY visits increased significantly in February with the roll-out of holiday wares, and the Saturday before Easter (March 30th, 2024) saw a sizable foot traffic boost that was 38.7% above the chainwide average for Saturdays in Q1 2024 – contributing to the month’s elevated visits overall. This pull-forward in demand, together with the comparison to an April 2023 that included Easter Sunday, at least partially explains Five Below’s more modest visit growth in April.
For both Ollie’s and Five Below, strong traffic since the beginning of the year indicates continued YoY gains may be expected in the months ahead.
In addition to YoY visit growth in the early months of 2024, Ollie’s and Five Below are seeing elevated weekend visits and an increase in longer visits, indicative of a robust treasure-hunting culture that is driving demand.
In Q1 2024, 37.8% of visits to Ollie’s and 37.4% of Five Below’s visits occurred on weekends, while weekend visits accounted for only 32.8% of visits to the wider Discount & Dollar Store category. This is likely due to Ollie’s and Five Below’s growing notoriety as destinations for treasure hunting – a pastime perhaps preferred at the end of the work week when schedules are more flexible.
Meanwhile, the share of visits lasting over 30 minutes in Q1 2024 increased for both brands YoY, even as it slightly declined for the category as a whole. This indicates that shoppers drawn to Ollie’s and Five Below’s recreational vibes spent even more time browsing the aisles in Q1 2024 than they did last year. Ollie’s closeout buying model and shifting array of steeply discounted brand name merchandise is especially conducive to the thrill of the hunt – and the chain saw a remarkable 41.3% of visits lasting more than half an hour in Q1.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below continue to demonstrate their consumer appeal in 2024. As the brands expand, holidays prove to be retail highlights while a culture of treasure hunting has shown its capacity to drive consistent traffic.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
In the spirit of retail quarterly earnings season, it has been eye-opening to see the disparity in performances, especially among specialty retailers. This week, Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) reported first quarter earnings, with comparable dollar sales up 4.6%, a strong growth number compared to many in the industry. Urban Outfitters, Inc. benefitted from a diversified retail portfolio, with the growth stemming from its Anthropologie, Free People and Nuuly brands, both in-store and online, while its namesake brand continues to be challenged over the past few years. As far as specialty apparel retailers go, the company has done a fantastic job of creating retail experiences that are unique and irreplaceable for their customers, and finding true competitors of its brands proves difficult.
Looking at Q1 2024 traffic performance, Free People and Anthropologie led the way, echoing the earnings release. Free People visits, excluding FP Movement, grew 8% year-over-year and Anthropologie saw an increase in traffic of 5% year-over-year. Urban Outfitters, on the other hand, actually saw traffic levels beat sales performance, with traffic flat compared to Q1 2023.
Anthropologie, despite retail and economic headwinds, has tightened up its value proposition to consumers and has a clear vision of its target shopper. Using Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive segmentation (as shown below), Anthropologie attracted the most visits from Ultra Wealthy Families in Q1 2024, followed by Young Professionals and Sunset Boomers. Compared to the other portfolio brands, Anthropologie attracts a higher median income consumer and over indexes with more mature consumers, two groups that have higher levels of spending power in today’s economy and haven’t decidedly altered their retail habits as much as middle- and lower-income shoppers. Anthropologie has clearly benefited from the strength of its visitors, and its curated multi-category retail experience that has shielded the chain from the struggles of other home furnishing and apparel retailers. It will be interesting to watch if the brand is able to continue to maintain its success through the remainder of the year if economic conditions become further challenged.
Free People appeals to a consumer somewhat in the middle of both Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters, and has been able to capitalize on Anthropologie’s success and hedge against Urban Outfitters’ struggles. Free People’s design sense makes it a crowd-favorite but also a source for many “dupes” on other retail platforms; however, the influx of similar designs haven’t seen to slow their momentum. FP Movement, the brand’s athleisure line that also has stand alone retail locations, has been another lever for growth. Using Placer.ai to look at three FP movement locations compared to the Free People chain, FP movement grew visits faster than the parent brand, and also had a higher dwell time. Urban Outfitters, Inc. disclosed that dollar sales for Free People were up almost 18% in Q1 2024, but the company doesn't break out sales between FP Movement and Free People. There are some risks with the athleisure market, as brands face softening performance and consumers shift away from more discretionary apparel categories. FP movement has created core and in-demand silhouettes that drive traffic, but with fashion trends, that may not be enough to sustain long-term visit growth.
Finally, there’s the lackluster performance from the namesake brand. Younger adults have so many retail options at their fingertips that retailers who cater to these consumers can often be lost in the shuffle, especially with so much competition coming from online and offline retail. Urban Outfitters long curated a distinct look and feel, as well as a mix of national brands and private labels that differentiated it from competitors; with retailers in similar price bands like Abercrombie & Fitch staging a comeback, Urban Outfitters has lost its footing. Looking into the consumer segments using Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive, Educated Urbanites and Young Professionals top Urban Outfitters segmentation; price-sensitivity could be making younger shoppers more discerning in their apparel purchases. Off-price may also be a factor here and provide higher levels of competition for the customer base. Urban Outfitters holds a lot of brand value, and if the brand is able to right size assortments and value in the short term, there could be upside to bring it closer to its sister brands.
Compared to most of the specialty retail narratives out in the market, Urban Outfitters, Inc. has a lot of positive momentum with a few of its brands. Nuuly, its subscription rental service, was also called out as a positive highlight of the quarter, and learnings about consumer preferences through that service could help to inform the go-forward strategies at Anthropologie, Free People and Urban Outfitters. There is a lot to celebrate as it relates to its discretionary retail fleet, despite the challenges at the namesake brand, and proves that specialty retail that still feels “special” has consumers' lasting attention.
Earlier this week, we attended the National Restaurant Association show in Chicago and had the chance to speak with a wide range of restaurant owner/operators (large chains, small chains, independents, and franchisees) as well as their vendors, distributors, and other technology solutions. We’ve already seen some great recaps of the event (including one from Nation’s Restaurant News), but we thought we’d offer some of our own observations from the event.
Fierce Fight for Visits Amid New Sources of Competition
We discussed this during our trade show preview last week, but concerns about slowing foot traffic trends and increased competition with alternative food retail channels like grocery, dollar stores, and convenience stores was easily the number one topic of discussion at the event. Most operators we spoke with acknowledged flat or year-over-year declines in comparable visits, which is consistent with the year-to-date on most of the restaurant subcategories we monitor (below)
Most of the restaurant executives we spoke to at the event also noted the improvements of prepared food offerings in the grocery and c-store channels as a competitive headwind. One executive even told us that “C-stores have gone from copying QSR category innovations to setting the bar higher in many ways.” We’ve seen this in the channel shift taking place across the food retail category, which we touched upon last week.
As it pertains to competition in the months ahead, operators across all categories admitted that they were curious about the ripple effect of McDonald’s plans to launch a $5 value menu on June 25 (which will run for a month). We’re already starting to see competitors try to front-run McDonald’s $5 value menu, and there will likely be others who introduce similar promotions in the coming weeks. While these offers are likely to help QSR chains recapture some of the visits lost to other channels, these chains will likely need to continue with their value messaging in the back half of the year (especially with the rollbacks taking place at Walmart, Target, and other superstore chains) while also committing to more menu innovation than we’ve seen year-to-date.
Coffee’s Momentum Continues–With A Notable Outlier
One of the two subcategories that is seeing year-over-year increases is coffee. Some of this growth has been fueled by expansion plans of Dutch Bros, 7 Brew Coffee, 151 Coffee, Scooter’s Coffee, Philz Coffee, particularly in the South and Southeast U.S. (something we touched on late last year). Below, we’ve put together a custom chain of drive-thru focused chains versus the category average to put some context behind where the growth in the category is coming from (although the category itself as a whole continues to see healthy growth).
Starbucks–which reported a 7% decline in comparable transactions during its January-March 2024 quarter–is one of the key outliers from this category. Starbucks CEO Laxman Narasimhan called the company’s performance “disappointing” on its most recent update call. There have been no shortage of opinions on why the chain has underperformed, but our data continues to indicate that occasional visitors are the root of the softer visitation trends, much like they were last quarter. To reverse these trends, the company has already launched flavored pearls for a series of summer seasonal drinks and an improved blueberry muffin. Additionally, the company plans to launch more sugar-free customization options (including syrups) as well as a zero-to-low-calorie energy beverage.
Casual Dining’s Quiet Comeback
The other restaurant category posting seeing year-over-year growth may come as a surprise: casual-dining chains. After a slow start to the year due to weather, the category has generally seen low-single-digit growth on a year-over-year basis (something Placer’s blog team pointed out a few weeks ago). Several executives in the casual dining space we spoke with noted that they had started to see improving trends, with a few citing a narrowing price gap with QSR/fast casual chains (in other words, if consumers are going to pay the same price per entree, they’ll gravitate toward casual dining) as well as a continued propensity to spend for events/holidays (a theme we touched on repeatedly in the past).
Where is the growth coming from? There are a couple of expected categories, including steakhouses, breakfast-first concepts, and eatertainment. Asian concepts have also performed well this year, helped by growth from experiential concepts like Kura Sushi and GEN Korean BBQ.
On the other end of the spectrum, we see weakness in Mexican and Seafood concepts. Seafood should not come as a surprise given that one of other notable development in the restaurant industry this week was Red Lobster’s bankruptcy announcement. The company's Endless Shrimp promotion has been widely blamed for the company's bankruptcy filing--and our visitation data does show a spike in visits coinciding with the promotion--but there were certainly other factors such as unfavorable lease terms that played a part.
It’s been nicknamed the “Superbowl for Dealmakers” and this year’s packed ICSC Las Vegas conference paved the way for tons of pipelines. All had comfy shoes on, phones ready to scan badges, and everyone was eager to learn and network.
Based on the buzz in the booths, it’s clear that dealmakers were happy to be able to meet face-to-face. High-demand retail locations are staying strong and able to command higher rents. However, there are also landlords in areas with less demand willing to negotiate and toss in reduced rent or concessions. With higher costs for construction and borrowing and limited supply in hot areas, both landlord and tenants are getting creative with solutions. Some are carving up vacant anchors for non-traditional tenants or experimenting with smaller footprints and more curated merchandise. Kroger is launching new concepts within the ethnic grocery space. Meanwhile others are taking advantage of large spaces to create experiential flagships, as we noted in the panel on “Shifting Store Formats” that Placer participated in, along with Kohl’s, CBRE, and Colliers. Other fascinating panels included understanding the impact of influencer marketing and innovations that are revolutionizing the shopping experience.
In a panel on “The Office - The Effect of Flexible Work Models on Foot Traffic,” a panel including Avison Young, CBRE, and Placer discussed how shoppers are shifting their times and locations for shopping, dining, fitness, and entertainment as a result of migration and varying remote and hybrid work schedules.
Over the course of the conference, one city kept popping up in conversation and that city was Miami. Whether it was cocktail party conversation, pub crawl chit chat, or booth banter, people kept lauding how this city barely missed a beat during COVID, new residents kept flocking in, its vibrant and cosmopolitan feel, and the opportunity for new concepts and store openings here. Let’s unpack some of the things happening in Miami.
Migration
Using Placer’s Migration Dashboard and honing on our Migration Draw tool, we see that Miami’s coastal areas are extremely attractive to residents.
Some of the factors that most affect Miami’s desirability include weather, being pedestrian-friendly, and superior access to restaurants and nightlife.
There are of course some trade-offs as well, such as higher housing costs and overall cost of living than many transplants’ original locales.
Nightlife
If you want to party in the city where the heat is on, Miami's the place for you. Taking a look at the time period of 6pm- midnight, nightlife visits in Miami outnumber those in East Williamsburg, Capitol Hill, or Deep Ellum.
Return to Office
In an interesting twist, Miami also leads in having the highest rate of return-to-office. How do they manage to do that if they’ve been out partying? It’s likely a work hard/play harder mentality. Or, like many at ICSC mentioned, Miami never really closed down as much as other cities during Covid, hence there is less to recover from. Placer's Office Dashboard notes that Miami is in the lead with the highest recovery rate.
Shopping and Entertainment
For those who love all things retail, there are plenty of shopping centers and shopping areas to choose from. Brickell City Centre has seen some of the largest year-over-year increases. Meanwhile, Aventura’s April visits are up considerably compared to last year. The Miami Design District, which the Anchor has written about previously, has also been showing consistent year-over-year growth this year.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
