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After a weather-disrupted start to the year, March delivered a clear signal that the office recovery is once again moving forward. The latest data points to a seasonal rebound alongside tightening workplace policies translating into sustained return-to-office (RTO) gains.
March 2026 marked the busiest March for office visits since the onset of COVID, with traffic just 26.5% below 2019 levels.
Part of this strength was calendar-driven, as the month included 22 working days compared to 21 in both 2019 and 2025. But even after adjusting for this difference, the underlying trend remained firmly positive. Average visits per working day were 29.8% below 2019 levels and 6.4% higher than March 2025, pointing to real and continuing momentum in the market.
On a regional basis, substantive year-over-year (YoY) gains were seen across every major market but Washington, D.C., where adjusting for working days revealed a 3.4% YoY visit gap – possibly influenced by a mid-month severe storm event that may have kept some workers home in a region relatively unaccustomed to such disruptions.
Miami and New York remained at the top of the recovery curve, with office visits exceeding 90% of pre-COVID baselines.
But the more interesting story is unfolding on the West Coast, where some of the nation’s biggest recovery laggards are making steady progress. Los Angeles recorded the strongest YoY growth of any analyzed market, supported in part by the comparison to early 2025, when the city was still reeling from January’s wildfires. San Francisco, where an AI-driven recovery remains in full swing, also continued to build momentum, with visits up 15.4% YoY. The city is steadily climbing the post-pandemic recovery rankings – after avoiding the bottom spot since September 2025, it edged up to third from last for the second month in a row.
As hybrid policies continue to tighten and companies like Stellantis join the growing list of employers requiring five-day-a-week attendance, workplace behavior is shifting slowly but surely toward more in-person work. And While office attendance is unlikely to return to pre-COVID norms, additional mandates set to take effect later this year at organizations ranging from Home Depot to the California state government point to continued gains in office utilization in the months ahead.
For more data-driven RTO analyses, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
While artificial intelligence was the undeniable protagonist of Shoptalk Spring 2026, the discussions illuminated a landscape far more nuanced than simple automation. Retailers are currently navigating a perfect storm of behavioral shifts, ranging from the physiological impact of GLP-1 medications to the cultural resurgence of the mall driven by Gen Alpha. In response, the industry is moving away from rigid demand planning toward a model defined by extreme operational agility, where the lines between digital agents and physical storefronts are increasingly blurred – an evolution reflected in the four key takeaways from this year’s event.
The most significant evolution in the digital space is the transition from traditional e-commerce to Agentic Commerce, or "A-Commerce" (hat tip Shoptalk’s Joe Laszlo). As AI agents begin to autonomously manage discovery, price comparison, and purchasing for consumers, the retail industry must pivot to serve these non-human decision-makers. This shift has the potential to disrupt the long-standing trend of retail concentration. By lowering the cost of customer acquisition and brand formation, AI is effectively leveling the playing field, allowing niche brands to challenge established giants and potentially reversing a decade of market consolidation.
Consumer behavior is currently evolving faster than at any point in recent history. The widespread adoption of GLP-1 medications has created a "lifestyle domino effect" that stretches far beyond the pharmacy. Data shows these medications are not only shifting primary grocery destinations but are also triggering a chain reaction in discretionary spending. A significant weight loss often prompts a total wardrobe refresh, which in turn leads to increased spending on housewares as consumers feel a renewed desire to host social gatherings and showcase their updated personal aesthetic.
Simultaneously, Gen Alpha is coming of age and bringing a surprising nostalgia for the physical "mall hangout" culture. Brands are responding by leaning heavily into "recommerce" and resale markets to build long-term community engagement. In this environment, lifetime value is no longer just about the initial transaction but about fostering a continuous cycle of brand interaction through niche marketplaces and circular economies.
The physical store is not dying; it is being re-engineered to function like a high-end service environment. The industry is moving toward a "hotel check-in" model where computer vision and loyalty integrations allow retailers to identify customers the moment they cross the threshold. This level of tracking is part of a new value exchange: consumers grant access to their data in return for hyper-personalized in-store media and a frictionless shopping experience. This evolution notably aims to eliminate "security friction," such as locked display cabinets, by replacing them with seamless, background-monitoring technologies.
Behind these front-end changes lies a total re-engineering of the supply chain. The traditional discipline of demand planning, which relies on historical data, is being replaced by "demand sensing." This model uses real-time AI to create highly reactive inventory flows that can pivot instantly based on current market signals. Furthermore, the economics of fulfillment have reached a tipping point; micro-fulfillment centers are now financially viable at a threshold of just 500 orders per day. This democratization of automation allows a broader range of retailers to offer localized, rapid delivery that was once the exclusive domain of the industry's largest players.
The retail playbook is being aggressively rewritten in 2026 as the industry moves past the era of mere experimentation and into one of total operational integration. The convergence of autonomous "A-Commerce" agents, the physiological lifestyle shifts triggered by GLP-1 medications, and the unexpected cultural resurgence of the physical mall among Gen Alpha has rendered legacy forecasting models obsolete. Success in this new landscape now depends on a retailer’s ability to bridge the gap between high-tech digital convenience and hyper-personalized, frictionless physical experiences. Ultimately, the winners of this cycle will be those who replace static planning with real-time demand sensing, ensuring they remain as agile as the rapidly evolving consumers they serve.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty, year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic trends to brick and mortar retail chains has been generally positive all year, with only three out of the first fourteen weeks of the year posting visit declines.
During Easter week, visits rose 5.7% compared to the week of March 31 to April 4, 2025 – the second biggest YoY increase of the year so far, following Valentine's Day week. And while some of this lift likely reflects calendar shifts, as Easter fell later in April in 2025, it also underscores consumers’ continued willingness to shop – especially for special occasions – despite broader headwinds.
Indeed, AI-powered location intelligence also shows a 1.9% increase in traffic compared to Easter Week 2025, and a 7.4% lift compared to the year-to-date weekly retail traffic average – highlighting current consumer resilience.
Easter generated increases in retail foot traffic across most of the country, but the strongest lift was in the Southeast, as can be seen on the map below. The region’s outsized performance likely reflects a combination of factors, including stronger cultural emphasis on Easter-related gatherings and traditions, favorable spring weather that supports in-store shopping, and a higher reliance on brick-and-mortar retail formats.
Retail traffic data for Easter Week 2026 suggests that retail traffic in 2026 is being supported by stable underlying demand, with holidays like Easter acting as accelerators rather than compensating for weakness. At the same time, the Southeast’s outperformance reinforces the need for regionally tailored strategies, as the ability to convert seasonal demand into store visits varies significantly across markets.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Q1 2026 is in the books and there were some key elements that popped when we looked at the data.
While we’re all about location data, few things get us as excited as the glorious combination of behavioral location analytics with sentiment data. So, we ran a poll of retail industry professionals with our friends at ShopTalk, and the results were fascinating. But two answers really stood out.
First, only 30% of respondents felt that ‘inspiration’ was a key element of the store experience. This was shockingly low considering how powerful the ‘discover mode’ aspect of the shopper journey can be. It also speaks to the massive potential in better maximizing this component to drive product engagement, sales and retail media opportunities.
Second, while 44% of respondents expected Agentic AI to boost digital commerce and 22% expected to simply fragment digital’s current share, 34% felt it would be a tide that lifted all boats. This is hugely positive in that it indicates a growing recognition that the benefit of digitally native innovations is not limited to the digital environment.
In January, all mall formats in the Placer.ai Mall Index saw a boost. A nice start for malls, but maybe just a fluke?
The February data came in and showed that all mall formats once again saw a boost. This gives more evidence to the going hypothesis that top tier malls are in the midst of a significant and ongoing renaissance. While this clearly has huge ramifications for site selection and placemaking at these centers, it also speaks to an ongoing potential for a significant swath of lower tier malls to drive their own revolutions with a greater focus on driving complementary offerings and local audiences.
I’m hardly unbiased when it comes to Target, but since the week beginning January 26th through the week beginning March 23rd – the retailer has seen nothing but visit growth, with visits averaging a 7.8% year over year lift during that period.
Does this mean that every problem is solved? No. But it does show that while there were clearly challenges faced in recent years, there is a unique potential for Target because of their market positioning and brand. We called them out as one of the clear candidates for a major recovery in 2026 and they are showing early signs that validate that call.
In September of 2024 Costco raised the cost of membership. Did this deter potential members and limit visits? Nope.
Instead, Costco has seen continued growth and an expansion of its audience with new groups becoming a bigger part of its overall mix. The result is the latest sign that Costco’s growth could actually have many more levels to hit with just the expansion of its audience.
In a guest post for The Anchor dunnhumby’s Erich Kahner broke down the grocery segment and powerful positioning that two groups had. Savings-First grocers like Aldi or Lidl were well positioned to grab visits with a clear value offering that emphasized price, an especially powerful tool in a period of seemingly endless economic volatility. On the other hand, Quality-First grocers like Sprouts were leading with an emphasis, not on price, but on exceptional product quality. And while these two concepts may seem like obvious draws for consumers, the ability to so effectively center an offering around a core promise gives these brands a unique market position and the ability to effectively deliver on and prioritize this position.
But there is a third group – the unicorns. In this case, Kahner focused on brands like Trader Joe’s and H-E-B and their ability to leverage authenticity, ideal product mix and a powerful understanding of their audience to deliver an exceptional and targeted experience. And this is critical because it represents the latest example that the antidote to bifurcation – the push to exceptional quality and exceptional value across categories – is authenticity. The ability to create an experience and product offering that stands out and truly resonates for a core audience.
Yes, there are continued improvements in office visitation led largely by more dramatic year over year lifts in areas that took longer to recover like San Francisco. However, there is an overall sense that the current state of affairs in office is generally stable. And this is great for office real estate.
Hybrid work has absolutely changed behavior, but it didn’t stop professionals from coming to the office – or many businesses from demanding this return. But there are clear indications of what drives more office visits. Proximity, industry, and family status all present clear signals of how often an audience will visit the office during a specific period. The positive here is that it shows a clear rationale for why people don’t visit, and it is not because they don’t value the office.
The takeaway? Expect an office-centric version of hybrid work to continue setting the overall pace.
For more data-driven retail & CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Club Pilates’ journey since its acquisition by Xponential Fitness represents a rare and large-scale success in the boutique fitness space. Since 2019, the chain has increased its monthly visits by over 200%, largely by expanding aggressively and saturating existing markets.
But same-store data suggests that the brand, having built a dense and expansive studio footprint, may be hitting its first ceiling, and expansion alone may not be enough to sustain the momentum of the past couple of years. Instead, the chain will likely need to combine new location openings with unlocking the latent value within its existing network of 1,400+ studios – growing membership, driving more engagement, improving utilization, and deepening customer relationships.
To that end, Xponential is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy aimed at boosting unit-level economics, including improving member acquisition and investing in digital upgrades to enhance conversion and retention. The company is also testing pricing and packaging strategies alongside studio refreshes and new class formats to increase engagement and utilization with the goal of improving profitability across the existing studio base.
But even as Xponential Fitness works to improve performance at existing locations, expansion – which has been Club Pilates’ primary growth engine to date – will remain an important part of the strategy, with the company aiming to open locations in both "new and existing geographies."
AI-powered location analytics reveal that most Club Pilates visits come from local clients, a trend which has remained remarkably consistent throughout the chain's aggressive expansion. In 2025, around 70% of visits came from patrons travelling less than five miles to reach the studio and more than 85% originated within a 10-mile radius – underscoring the highly local nature of the business.
Because most customers come from nearby, opening additional studios allows the brand to reach new local audiences rather than relying on a single location to cover an entire market. When spaced appropriately, this can grow total demand with limited overlap, while marketing across the market helps reduce the cost of acquiring each new member. As a result, even if same-store visits begin to level off, the brand can continue to grow by expanding its footprint – capturing new pockets of local demand that existing studios do not fully serve.
As Club Pilates enters its next phase, growth will depend both on opening new studios and on optimizing its existing network – improving utilization, deepening engagement, and refining pricing. With strong local density and a loyal, routine-driven customer base, the brand is well positioned to increase member lifetime value through digital enhancements and more personalized experiences. If executed well, this shift from pure expansion to expansion and optimization could elevate Club Pilates from a fast-growing chain to a true fitness super-brand.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Traffic to malls increased in Q1 2026 across all three formats analyzed – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls – largely thanks to strong performances in the first two months of the year.
But March 2026 visits were more subdued, with indoor malls seeing a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline of 1.1% and outlet malls experiencing a steeper drop of 4.1% compared to March 2025. Open-air shopping centers were the only format to maintain growth, though their 3.2% YoY visit increase – though solid – was still more modest than the stronger gains seen by the format in January and February.
So what happened in March? Why did open-air shopping centers fare better than their peers? And how can malls return to growth across formats going into Q2?
Some of the dip may be due to calendar differences – March 2026 had one less Saturday than March 2025 – and since Saturdays are typically malls' busiest day, the shift likely impacted overall visits for the month.
But a closer look at daypart trends can shed additional light on both the strength earlier in the quarter and the slowdown in March. In Q1 overall, growth was concentrated at the edges of the day: traffic before 11 AM and after 8 PM saw the strongest gains, with additional support from the early evening (5 PM–8 PM). In contrast, midday traffic – the largest share of visits – was relatively flat for open-air centers and slightly negative for indoor and outlet malls. Still, robust edge growth was sufficient to offset this softness and drive overall quarterly gains.
But in March, growth in morning and evening hours slowed – particularly for indoor and outlet malls – while midday declines became more pronounced. This meant that the off-peak gains were no longer sufficient to offset weakness in the core of the day – leading to the YoY traffic declines for indoor and outlet malls.
But even as traffic to indoor and outlet malls declined, open-air shopping centers maintained growth momentum due to two key advantages. First, the format maintained most of its morning and evening gains, and its midday traffic trends ease from growth to stability rather than from stability to decline like for indoor and outlet malls – so the growth at the edges was still enough to offset the flat visits midday. Second, open-air centers are less dependent on midday visits, with around 77% of visits to open-air shopping centers occurring between 11 AM and 8 PM, compared to 83% to 84% for indoor and outlet malls. This means that open-air shopping centers are more resilient to dips in midday visits than the other two formats.
The softness seen in March at indoor and outlet malls does not negate the strong start to 2026, which drove overall YoY visit growth in Q1. However, it does highlight what will be required to sustain that momentum going forward.
The data points to two paths to more durable growth: reigniting demand during peak midday hours through programming, tenant mix, and convenience-driven visits or reducing reliance on that window by expanding traffic in the morning and evening. Open-air shopping centers provide a model for the latter, with a more balanced daypart mix – likely driven by their dining, entertainment, and extended-hour experiences – that has helped cushion midday softness. For indoor and outlet malls, long-term stability will likely depend on a combination of both – strengthening midday performance while also building consistent off-peak demand.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Malls have long acted as a gleaming symbol of American retail. Following the opening of the first indoor mall in 1956, and as the American middle class increasingly moved from the city to the suburbs, malls continued to open at a rapid rate. By 1960, some 4,500 shopping centers had opened nationwide, filling the growing demand for “third places” – spaces that allowed the newly suburban populations to gather, socialize, and create community. And while that role evolved over the years, it’s safe to say that malls have played a major part in shaping the American shopping culture.
But malls’ rapid expansion led to an oversaturated market – some estimates suggest that there are approximately 24 square feet of retail space per U.S. citizen, as compared to 4.6 for the U.K. and 2.8 for China. Many began to predict the demise and downfall of malls, and that narrative intensified as online shopping grew in popularity. The rise of big-box stores, a focus on “services, not things,” and COVID-19 only accelerated these trends.
A lot of the doom and gloom predictions tend to de-emphasize the mall's role as a modern incarnation of a bustling downtown shopping area.
But a lot of these doom and gloom predictions focus on malls only as a place to shop, and tend to de-emphasize their other role as the third place – a modern incarnation of a bustling downtown shopping area, replete with shops, services, and places to meet. And after two years of isolation and a new, pandemic-induced wave of suburban relocation, malls’ potential to bring people together is more prized than ever.
So although malls were hit hard during COVID-19, many of them are finding ways to reinvent themselves and stay relevant. Today, more than halfway through 2022, the challenges that malls face continue to evolve and change – but malls are evolving too. This white paper covers a few specific ways that some malls have found to thrive in the new normal. Some shopping centers are turning to entertainment to draw crowds into their doors. Others are focusing on offering a full visitor experience that extends beyond simply grabbing a new shirt or a burger at the food court. Still, more are embracing omnichannel options, offering an integrated on and offline experience to their shoppers. In the face of significant retail challenges, top-tier malls are turning to innovative solutions to stay ahead of the game.
The pandemic posed significant challenges to malls. Although foot traffic to the category rose back up in the summer of 2021, the Delta and subsequent Omicron waves brought visits down once more. And as visit gaps post-Omicron began to narrow, inflation and gas prices put the brakes on any return to normalcy. April and May 2022 saw visits beginning to trend up, though the unrelenting rise of inflation, the highest it’s been in the past 40 years, has slowed that recovery slightly.
Foot traffic data shows that malls are continuing to attract visitors, despite the challenges that seem to crop up weekly.
Still, foot traffic data shows that malls are continuing to attract visitors, despite the challenges that seem to crop up weekly. And while they may no longer play the central role they once did in Americans’ shopping routines, malls still serve as indoor community hubs where friends and family can come together for diverse food, shops, and entertainment options. This could explain why top-tier malls keep on coming back despite the seemingly constant obstacles.
Comparing monthly visits from January 2022 through July 2022 to the same period in 2019 highlights the significant difficulties facing the sector. Indoor malls, open-air lifestyle centers, and outlet malls alike saw marked lags in foot traffic as compared to three years ago.
Monthly year-over-three-year (Yo3Y) foot traffic comparisons also highlight mall resilience.
The monthly year-over-three-year (Yo3Y) foot traffic comparisons also highlight mall resilience. Following an Omicron-plagued January, the visit gaps narrowed in February 2022 to less than 5% for all the segments. And although the increase in gas prices and inflation brought visits down in March, malls quickly bounced back in April 2022, with indoor malls seeing only 1.8% fewer visits than in 2019 and open-air shopping centers down only 4.8% Yo3Y. Foot traffic fell again in May and June as consumers tightened their budgets in the face of rising prices, but consumers appear to have quickly made peace with the new economic reality. By July 2022, visits to indoor malls and open-air lifestyle centers were only 3.5% and 2.7% lower than they had been in July 2019.
COVID didn’t just impact visit numbers – since 2020, mall visits have also gotten shorter, likely a result of pandemic restrictions and a general desire not to congregate any longer than necessary. And although 2021 and 2022 saw a slight uptick in time spent at malls and shopping centers – from 60 minutes in 2020 to 62 minutes in 2021 and 2022 – the median dwell time is still significantly lower than the 70 minutes median dwell time of pre-COVID 2018 and 2019.
Shorter visits are not necessarily a bad thing – intent-driven shoppers may simply be doing more research ahead of time and less in-mall browsing.
Shorter visits are not necessarily a bad thing in and of themselves – consumers today are highly informed, so many intent-driven shoppers may simply be doing more research ahead of time and less in-mall browsing. But shorter (and fewer) visits do mean that malls must focus on giving shoppers a reason to visit. We explore some successful strategies below.
Malls have long integrated entertainment into their overall experience in the form of arcades, movie theaters, and even coin-operated animal rides. Some malls, however, are taking their entertainment offerings to the next level.
In August 2021, CBL Properties, a Tennessee-based property developer, announced the opening of the Hollywood Casino by Penn National Gaming in the York Galleria Mall in York, Pennsylvania. The 80,000 square foot casino, which boasts 500 slots and 24 live-action table games, opened in the mall’s lower level. The space was occupied by a now-closed Sears department store, and the entertainment venue now functions as a new anchor to draw customers in.
The casino’s opening has had a dramatic impact on the mall’s foot traffic. In a year-over-three-year (Yo3Y) comparison, July 2021 saw 2.4% fewer visitors than July 2018. But when the casino opened in August 2021, visits to the location jumped to 31.4% Yo3Y. This increase is all the more impressive considering that the casino opened on August 19th, with only 12 days left in the month.
The mall, which had seen negative Yo3Y visit numbers until the casino’s opening, has sustained the positive visit trend through July 2022 – a testament to the appeal of in-mall entertainment.
Another mall betting on indoor entertainment is the Pierre Bossier Mall in Bossier City, Louisiana. In April 2022, Surge Entertainment opened a child-friendly space, which includes zip-lining, bowling, laser tag and arcade games. The Surge Entertainment chain is co-owned by Drew Brees, the former New Orleans Saints quarterback, and has 15 locations around the country. The Pierre Bossier Mall branch is filling the space vacated by Virginia College, which closed its doors in 2018.
Since Surge Entertainment opened its Bossier City location, the mall has seen a dramatic increase in average dwell time.
Since Surge Entertainment opened its Bossier City location, the mall has seen a dramatic increase in average dwell time. Between July 2021 and March 2022, median dwell time hovered between 51 and 58 minutes. But following the center’s opening, median dwell time jumped to 78 minutes. Since then, the median dwell time has remained consistently elevated: In the four months since the Surge Entertainment opening, median dwell times did not drop below 75 minutes.
Brick-and-mortar retailers once viewed online shopping as a threat – but now, mall owners and operators are increasingly turning to digital channels to complement existing approaches. COVID-19 and the surge of online shopping further fueled malls’ digital progress. Over the past two years, large malls and suburban shopping centers across the country have been rolling out various online and social shopping options and adopting omnichannel strategies.
In September 2020, Centennial, a real estate investment firm with many malls and mixed-use entertainment centers in its portfolio, launched a chain-wide omnichannel platform called Shop Now!. The app allows consumers to shop across all Centennial malls the way someone would shop on Amazon.
The first phase of the program, which launched in October 2020, allowed users to browse an AI-powered search engine connected to the inventory of all of the stores operating in their mall of interest. In February 2022, Centennial debuted phase two of the program at its Santa Ana, CA based MainPlace Mall. It allows customers to consolidate orders from several stores into a single cart, get the order fulfilled by personal shoppers, and have the orders ready for same-day delivery or on-site pickup.
The e-commerce app could have detracted shoppers from physically going to the mall – but instead, the program increased both monthly and loyal visitors.
The app allows consumers to browse and shop from the comfort of their phones. It could have detracted shoppers from physically going to the mall – but instead, the program has increased both monthly and loyal visitors. In the months following the launch of the second phase, MainPlace Mall saw its loyal visits increase by 5% (from 46.2% in February ‘22 to 51.3% in June ‘22), while overall monthly visits in April ‘22 increased by 5.5% when compared to 2019. The digital investment also helped the mall make sales that could have been lost to other e-commerce platforms. The mall’s brick-and-mortar success following the addition of a digital channel highlights how malls can rise to the top by embracing an omnichannel strategy.
Continuing its innovative streak, the MainPlace Mall recently added an experiential component with the opening the American Ninja Warrior Adventure Park in July 2022 in the place of four former retail stores. During its first month of operation, the park drove the mall’s share of loyal visits up by 13.4% compared to the previous month while boosting Yo3Y monthly visits by 18.0%.
The difference in impact between the online platform launch and the opening of the American Ninja Warrior Adventure Park indicates that malls can enjoy both gradual gains over time as well as jumps in foot traffic and loyalty, depending on the strategy they adopt.
Omnichannel strategies can also revitalize food courts hit hard by the pandemic. Arundel Mills Mall, part of the Simon Property Group, began offering online orders in February 2022 via a platform called Snackpass, allowing users to use the app at various eateries around the mall. Snackpass, launched in 2017 as a food ordering app on the Yale campus, facilitates group ordering and includes various social features. Its current iteration allows customers to pre-order food, skip lines, collect rewards, and engage with friends. It also offers discounts on group orders, in an effort to promote social dining.
Since the beginning of the Snackpass partnership, the shopping center itself is seeing more visitors – many of whom are coming from farther away.
Since the beginning of the Snackpass partnership, the shopping center itself is seeing more visitors – many of whom are coming from farther away. In the five months following the app’s launch, Arundel Mills saw an overall increase of 15 square miles to its True Trade Area (TTA), and an increase of 29.5% in visits per sq. ft. – The consistent increase in TTA and visits per sq. ft. are a testament to the power of innovative dining partnerships to draw traffic to top-tier malls.
With many retailers reducing their on-mall presence, empty brick-and-mortar stores have attracted plenty of negative attention. But now, malls are increasingly repurposing vacated spaces in new, innovative ways that resonate with local communities and can fill their evolving needs.
At the Ocean County Mall in Toms River, NJ, Simon Property Group repurposed the huge space left by a former Sears store and turned it into a lifestyle center, with stores opening throughout 2020. The space is now being used by a number of highly popular chains such as LA Fitness, Ulta Beauty, HomeSense, and P.F. Chang’s and also includes a children's play area.
This pivot seems to be working. Median dwell time to the mall has increased from 53 minutes to 56 minutes, a significant change when considering that a majority of malls have recently seen their dwell times drop.
The center has also seen the median age for its trade area decrease from 40.5 years old in the first half of 2021 to 37.2 in the first half of 2022, a dramatic shift in visitor demographics. Yo3Y visits are strong as well – July 2022 were up by 17.1%.
In a similar tale of a closed Sears turning into a lifestyle center, the Northshore Mall in Peabody, MA turned the space vacated by the department store into a mixed-use center. The most significant anchor is now the high-end Life Time Fitness Center that offers cardio, weights, and functional training rooms, and includes yoga, pilates, and cycling studios, indoor and outdoor pools, basketball and pickleball courts, saunas, and a bistro.
As soon as the health club opened its doors in July 2021, visits to the mall increased – significantly outpacing the levels seen when Sears was still open.
As soon as the health club opened its doors in July 2021, visits to the mall increased – significantly outpacing the levels seen when Sears was still open. Both Yo3Y and year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) foot traffic numbers were impressive, with July 2022 seeing 17.2% more visitors than three years prior.
As visits to malls become more focussed, selecting the right tenant has never been more important – and that may mean looking at unconventional occupants to draw in customers.
In one example of tapping into local needs, the Westfield Oakridge shopping center in San Jose, CA, opened a specialty grocery store on its premises. 99 Ranch Market, one of the largest Asian supermarket chains in the U.S., began operating its first mall location in March 2022. The location includes classic grocery store items such as produce, meat, and seafood sections, and also boasts a dining hall, tea bar, and bakery.
Its opening day saw lines snaking out the door, as excited locals queued to sample the store’s delicacies. And the crowd-drawing hype seems to be more than a flash in the pan – the months following the opening were the mall’s strongest in the past year and a half. Yo3Y visits were up by 10.1% in July 2022 , with some shoppers reporting that the addition of the grocery store had turned Westfield Oakridge into their all-in-one stop shop.
Although the area was not lacking in grocery options, retail foot traffic data indicates that the new 99 Ranch Market at Westfield Oakridge Mall still filled a void.
Although the area was not lacking in grocery options, retail foot traffic data indicates that the new 99 Ranch Market at Westfield Oakridge Mall still filled a void – the new grocery store’s trade area has only minimal overlaps with the other trade areas of the nearby 99 Ranch Markets locations. This means that most of the new 99 Ranch Market’s customers were not being well-served by the existing locations of the chain.
Westfield Oakridge is not the only San Jose mall turning to food to attract the crowds. On June 16th 2022, following much hype and a pandemic-related delay, Eataly, the all-in-one Italian market, restaurant, and cooking school opened its first Northern California location at the Westfield Valley Fair in Santa Clara, CA.
Prior to the launch, the Westfield Valley Fair mall was already one of the more successful malls in the country – but the opening of Eataly seems to be driving even more foot traffic. Yo3Y visits to malls during Eataly’s opening week exceeded 20% for the first time in months and have since remained consistently elevated, with visits for the week of July 25th up 27.7% relative to the equivalent week in 2019.
In March 2022, regional department store Von Maur opened its doors at The Village of Rochester Hills, an open-air lifestyle center in Michigan. The retailer, which has 36 locations throughout the Midwest, took over the space left vacant by Carson’s, another Midwest-based department store.
What may be the first new department store in the Detroit metropolitan area in over a decade is driving visits to the shopping center.
What may be the first new department store in the Detroit metropolitan area in over a decade is driving visits to the shopping center. Von Maur’s March 2022 opening pushed Yo3Y visits up by 16.9% compared to the mere 4.3% Yo3Y increase the month before.
Part of the secret to Von Maur’s success lies in the psychographic characteristics of residents within the mall’s trade area. Using Spatial.ai’s GeoWeb data, a tool which tracks online engagement with various trends and topics by neighborhood, we found that the TTA surrounding The Village had an index of 131 for department store shoppers. In other words, people in the mall’s trade area exhibited heightened interest in department stores – they engaged with department-store-related content at a rate that was 1.3 times higher than the national average – which helps explain why Von Maur is thriving in this specific location. And in another testament to the strength of immersive retail experiences, Von Maur, which focuses on curating a unique shopper journey and features a pianist at all of its locations, has been ranked the top department store in America.
The addition of Von Maur is not the only change that The Village is implementing – the mall has continued adding new stores and will be opening more throughout the year. These, too, will likely boost foot traffic to the lifestyle center.
The mall’s ability to select tenants that cater to, and reflect the needs and behaviors of its consumers is likely to continue driving success. By drilling down into the nitty-gritty details of who comes to shop, where they come from, and what shops they enjoy frequenting, mall management can tailor the shopping center to meet the needs of its base.
The “death of the American mall” has been predicted for years. The reality, however, is much more nuanced than that – like many other sectors, malls are undergoing a shift to help them better serve evolving customer needs and survive and thrive in an ever-shifting retail landscape.
The malls featured in this white paper have found ways to consistently attract visitors despite the various obstacles faced by the category over the past two years. By understanding that the American mall must evolve along with the consumers, mall owners can successfully revitalize their retail spaces.
This report leverages location intelligence data to analyze the auto dealership market in the United States. By looking at visit trends to branded showrooms, used car lots, and mixed inventory dealerships – and analyzing the types of visitors that visit each category – this white paper sheds light on the state of car dealership space in 2023.
Prior to the pandemic and throughout most of 2020, visits to both car brand and used-only dealerships followed relatively similar trends. But the two categories began to diverge in early 2021.
Visits to car brand dealerships briefly returned to pre-pandemic levels in mid-2021, but traffic fell consistently in the second half of the year as supply-chain issues drove consistent price increases. So despite the brief mid-year bump, 2021 ended with overall new car sales – as well as overall foot traffic to car brand dealerships – below 2019 levels. Visits continued falling in 2022 as low inventory and high prices hampered growth.
Meanwhile, although the price for used cars rose even more (the average price for a new and used car was up 12.1% and 27.1% YoY, respectively, in September 2021), used cars still remained, on average, more affordable than new ones. So with rising demand for alternatives to public transportation – and with new cars now beyond the reach of many consumers – the used car market took off and visits to used car dealerships skyrocketed for much of 2021 and into 2022. But in the second half of last year, as gas prices remained elevated – tacking an additional cost onto operating a vehicle – visits to used car dealerships began falling dramatically.
Now, the price of both used and new cars has finally begun falling slightly. Foot traffic data indicates that the price drops appear to be impacting the two markets differently. So far this year, sales and visits to dealerships of pre-owned vehicles have slowed, while new car sales grew – perhaps due to the more significant pent-up demand in the new car market. The ongoing inflation, which has had a stronger impact on lower-income households, may also be somewhat inhibiting used-car dealership visit growth. At the same time, foot traffic to used car dealerships did remain close to or slightly above 2019 levels for most of 2023, while visits to branded dealerships were significantly lower year-over-four-years.
The situation remains dynamic – with some reports of prices creeping back up – so the auto dealership landscape may well continue to shift going into 2024.
With car prices soaring, the demand for pre-owned vehicles has grown substantially. Analyzing the trade area composition of leading dealerships that sell used cars reveals the wide spectrum of consumers in this market.
Dealerships carrying a mixed inventory of both new and used vehicles seem to attract relatively high-income consumers. Using the STI: Popstats 2022 data set to analyze the trade areas of Penske Automotive, AutoNation, and Lithia Auto Stores – which all sell used and new cars – reveals that the HHI in the three dealerships’ trade areas is higher than the nationwide median. Differences did emerge within the trade areas of the mixed inventory car dealerships, but the range was relatively narrow – between $77.5K to $84.5K trade area median HHI.
Meanwhile, the dealerships selling exclusively used cars – DriveTime, Carvana, and CarMax – exhibited a much wider range of trade area median HHIs. CarMax, the largest used-only car dealership in the United States, had a yearly median HHI of $75.9K in its trade area – just slightly below the median HHI for mixed inventory dealerships Lithia Auto Stores and AutoNation and above the nationwide median of $69.5K. Carvana, a used car dealership that operates according to a Buy Online, Pick Up in Store (BOPIS) model, served an audience with a median HHI of $69.1K – more or less in-line with the nationwide median. And DriveTime’s trade areas have a median HHI of $57.6K – significantly below the nationwide median.
The variance in HHI among the audiences of the different used-only car dealerships may reflect the wide variety of offerings within the used-car market – from virtually new luxury vehicles to basic sedans with 150k+ miles on the odometer.
Visits to car brands nationwide between January and September 2023 dipped 0.9% YoY, although several outliers reveal the potential for success in the space even during times of economic headwinds.
Visits to Tesla’s dealerships have skyrocketed recently, perhaps thanks to the company’s frequent price cuts over the past year – between September 2022 and 2023, the average price for a new Tesla fell by 24.7%. And with the company’s network of Superchargers gearing up to serve non-Tesla Electric Vehicles (EVs), Tesla is finding room for growth beyond its already successful core EV manufacturing business and positioning itself for a strong 2024.
Japan-based Mazda used the pandemic as an opportunity to strengthen its standing among U.S. consumers, and the company is now reaping the fruits of its labor as visits rise YoY. Porsche, the winner of U.S New & World Report Best Luxury Car Brand for 2023, also outperformed the wider car dealership sector. Kia – owned in part by Hyundai – and Hyundai both saw their foot traffic increase YoY as well, thanks in part to the popularity of their SUV models.
Analyzing dealerships on a national level can help car manufacturers make macro-level decisions on marketing, product design, and brick-and-mortar fleet configurations. But diving deeper into the unique characteristics of each dealership’s trade area on a state level reveals differences that can serve brands looking to optimize their offerings for their local audience.
For example, analyzing the share of households with children in the trade areas of four car brand dealership chains in four different states reveals significant variation across the regional markets.
Nationwide, Tesla served a larger share of households with children than Kia, Ford, or Land Rover. But focusing on California shows that in the Golden State, Kia’s trade area population included the largest share of this segment than the other three brands, while Land Rover led this segment in Illinois. Meanwhile, Ford served the smallest share of households with children on a nationwide basis – but although the trend held in Illinois and Pennsylvania, California Ford dealerships served more households with children than either Tesla or Land Rover.
Leveraging location intelligence to analyze car dealerships adds a layer of consumer insights to industry provided sales numbers. Visit patterns and audience demographics reveal how foot traffic to used-car lots, mixed inventory dealerships, and manufacturers’ showrooms change over time and who visits these businesses on a national or regional level. These insights allow auto industry stakeholders to assess current demand, predict future trends, and keep a finger on the pulse of car-purchasing habits in the United States.
