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Americans have a love affair with stuff, and one of the hallmarks of this is the enduring strength of self-storage units. Public Storage takes the lead in overall visits, with Extra Space Storage not far behind. Looking at the Public Storage visits data, we see a clear spike in visits near the end of the month. This is due be due to housing transitions that also tend to occur with this pattern, as people prepare to move out at month’s end or conversely to pick up items for move-in at the beginning of a month.
Compared to last year, visits are generally up across most of these chains (which is partly the result of the industry consolidation trend we examined last year). The highest variance is seen with Prime Storage, a company largely based on the East Coast, but with a presence in the Midwest as well. StorageMart bought Manhattan Mini Storage in 2021 and has over 250 locations now.
In just a few months, we will be coming on the 5-year anniversary of COVID-19. During that time, we hunkered down, bought tons of athleisure, and stared at our forlorn office clothing sitting unworn in our closets. Fast forward a few years to present day and much like bootcut jeans are back in style, the pendulum is starting to veer back towards a more tailored style. This time around, the suits may not be as constricting, but there is certainly more structure to fall’s fashion than the cozy comfy sweatpants and leggings that the whole world came to embrace upon working from home. Among locations that are not multi-story or in enclosed malls, we see that Ann Taylor increased traffic to its locations in March, June, and August compared to last year, and that Polo Ralph Lauren has also seen increases in the past few months. This particular grouping of brands all has at least 30 or more locations each tracked by Placer and tend to be ubiquitous at many malls or as standalone boutiques. A recent visit to Banana Republic indicated a merchandising assortment that appeared to be more than 50% office wear in the women’s section, with blazers and tailored pants, silky shirts, and dresses ready to be accessorized with heels and some statement jewelry.
However, we are seeing even larger increases in year-over-year traffic at some of the more specialized/high-end brands, particularly in women’s contemporary that offer sharp-looking items that look just as polished at the boardroom or the PTA meeting, like the blazers at Veronica Beard or the “Effortless Pant” from Aritzia that is a smash hit on social media. The majority of this next grouping of brands got their start at department stores or specialty retailers, but with increased success, many are launching their own brick-and-mortar boutiques. Clearly, having a holy grail item that is on the fashion editors’ favorites list gives a boost to store traffic. One of the trends we are seeing is the continuation of the love for comfort everyone adopted during Covid mixed with a slightly more structured but still understated minimalist but luxe aesthetic, like COS. Theory, a wardrobe staple with its neutral color palette and streamlined silhouettes, has been generating positive year-over-year traffic during the back-to-school and fall season. Vince, also featuring rather understated and neutral basics, also saw its traffic lift for the fall season. Eileen Fisher is another interesting brand. Once regarded as clothing adapted to your mom’s generation, Gen Z is also starting to embrace it for its softness and sustainability, and it is one of the more popular brands to buy secondhand. In April of this year, Guess and WHP Global completed the acquisition of rag & bone, which has long been hailed for their on-trend jeans and boots. Time will tell what direction they will take the brand, or if they will stick with its tried-and-true New York roots.
Another brand to keep an eye on that we’re already familiar with from prestige department stores like Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, and Saks Fifth Avenue is L’Agence. This brand goes seamlessly from day to night with classics like tweed blazers, satiny tank tops, and perfectly-fitting jeans. They’ve now expanded to more stand-alone stores, including Southern California shopping meccas like Malibu and Beverly Hills. While the Malibu one just opened in late fall 2023, its traffic has been growing steadily upwards, even overtaking that of the Beverly Hills outpost of late.
One interesting thing to note is that the Malibu location attracts a higher proportion of its audience during the morning hours, whereas the Beverly Hills location gets the evening crowd. This information would be useful for staffing purposes or for knowing when to hold events.
In a dining segment that has faced more than its fair share of headwinds, The Cheesecake Factory and BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse have emerged as bright spots. We took a closer look at how the two chains have performed over the past year, and dove into some of the factors driving their success.
The full-service dining segment has seen turbulence since the pandemic, with many consumers embracing lower-cost meal options and redirecting their discretionary dollars. But the Cheesecake Factory – marked as a chain to watch this year – is one FSR that’s been particularly adept at weathering the storm. During the third quarter of 2024, visits to the chain were up 2.0% YoY, even as the wider FSR segment experienced a minor visit decline. And by continuing to offer a consistent, high-quality dining experience – while investing in staff retention to keep customer satisfaction higher than ever – the brand appears poised to continue growing its customer base.
BJ’s Restaurant & Brewhouse is another FSR chain that has been outperforming the wider segment. Like its cheesecake counterpart, BJ’s offers an especially varied menu – including its famous Pizookie dessert and a massive selection of craft beers. And after seeing a minor 1.7% YoY visit decline in Q2 2024, the chain finished out Q3 with an impressive 4.2% YoY uptick.
What’s driving the resilience of these two chains while others in the category struggle? We explored two factors driving this foot traffic success.
One factor that may be helping The Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s Restaurant drive traffic is their ability to harness the power of annual dining milestones. Special calendar days can be powerful drivers of foot traffic at restaurants, offering chains a prime opportunity to grow visits – and sales.
But the two chains experience these milestones somewhat differently. For BJ’s Restaurant, the weeks of Mother’s Day (week of May 6th) and Father’s Day (week of June 10th) drew the most traffic during the last twelve months, with visits during these holidays rising 18.2% and 14.1%, respectively, compared to an October ‘23 - September ‘24 weekly visit average.
But for The Cheesecake Factory, it was the period right after Christmas that drew the biggest crowds. During the week of December 25th, 2023, visits were up 24.5% compared to the chain’s weekly average – likely driven in part by customers eager to redeem holiday gift cards. (Last year, the chain offered a special holiday gift card promotion, which went into effect in late November). Other calendar days, like Mother’s Day, Valentine’s Day, and National Cheesecake Day (week of July 29th), also provided the restaurant with substantial visit boosts.
Another factor that may be contributing to both brands’ better-than-average performance is their appeal among higher-income consumers. Using the Experian: Mosaic dataset to analyze The Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s trade areas reveals that both chains see higher shares of wealthy families in their captured markets than in their potential markets. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base.)
Between January and September 2024, the shares of “Flourishing Families” in the Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s captured markets stood at 9.5% and 10.9%, respectively – outpacing their potential market shares. Similarly, the “Booming with Confidence” segment – wealthy, established couples living in suburban areas – was overrepresented in both restaurants’ captured markets.
These metrics highlight the two chains' success in attracting high-income family segments – groups who may be more resilient to the impacts of rising prices. For this consumer group, these restaurants strike a balance between quality and cost-effectiveness, making them a compelling choice for dining out in an uncertain economic landscape.
The Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s have found ways to thrive in a challenging dining environment, keeping foot traffic up and tapping into a receptive customer base.
With the holiday season around the corner, can these two chains maintain their foot traffic growth? Will The Cheesecake Factory see another major holiday season visit spike?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up to date with the latest data-driven dining news.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
2024 has been a tough year for quick-service restaurants (QSRs), with rising costs, inflation, and changing consumer preferences putting pressure on the industry. And as if these challenges weren’t enough, incursions into the convenient meal space by c-stores, fast-casual restaurants, and even grocery chains have forced QSRs to contend with increased competition.
But visit data shows that despite these headwinds, fast food leaders like McDonald’s and Wendy’s are holding their ground. During the first three quarters of 2024, both McDonald’s and Wendy’s experienced visit levels generally on par with those seen last year, with minimal year-over-year (YoY) variation. Despite a minor dip for McDonald's in Q2, when visits dropped by 2.2% compared to 2023, the overall difference in visit levels for both chains was less than 1% across the remaining quarters.
This stability highlights the ability of both brands to retain a steady flow of traffic despite competitive pressures and economic challenges.
One strategy QSRs have successfully deployed to entice hungry customers has been the introduction of discounted limited-time offers (LTOs). And following summer LTOs that garnered plenty of excitement, McDonald’s and Wendy’s are back in the limited-time game. On October 8th, 2024, Wendy's launched its Krabby Patty Kollab, celebrating the 25th anniversary of SpongeBob SquarePants with two limited-time items. Meanwhile, McDonald’s introduced the Chicken Big Mac on October 10th, expanding its menu with an item that had already gained global recognition.
While both launches positively impacted visitation, Wendy's limited-time menu had a more pronounced effect. Wendy’s saw a dramatic surge in visits in the wake of the Kollab, with an increase of 26.4% on the Tuesday of the Krabby Patty launch, compared to a year-to-date (YTD) Tuesday average. The following Wednesday and Thursday also saw increases of 20.7% and 23.9%, respectively, compared to the YTD daily average for those days of the week.
And though the response to McDonald’s menu addition was somewhat more restrained, the limited-time chicken offering also generated a visit increase: On the Thursday of the launch, McDonald’s saw visits jump by 7.9% compared to the chain’s YTD Thursday visit average – showing the power of limited-time items to generate excitement and urgency among consumers.
In addition to new menu items, McDonald’s has placed a strong emphasis on its breakfast offerings – a strategic focus that has grown more pronounced throughout 2024. By expanding its breakfast menu, offering healthier alternatives, and promoting limited-time deals, McDonald’s has successfully driven morning traffic. The introduction of CosMc's, a new McCafé spinoff, further boosts the company’s breakfast and coffee offerings, appealing to a broader audience seeking affordable beverages and quick meals.
And McDonald’s breakfast strategy appears to be paying off. In 2024, 24.8% of McDonald’s daily visits occurred between 5:00 AM and 11:00 AM – compared to just 8.5% for Wendy’s. Wendy’s, for its part, had a stronger foothold in the lunchtime segment, with the 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM time slot accounting for 27.5% of visits, compared to 21.2% for McDonald’s.
Both McDonald’s and Wendy’s have displayed resilience in maintaining steady customer visits, with menu innovations and breakfast strategies playing a significant role in shaping their traffic patterns in 2024.
How will the two quick-service giants sign off this year?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Sprouts Farmers Market, the Phoenix, Arizona-based natural foods chain with some 419 locations across 23 states – up from 391 in July 2023 – is firmly in expansion mode. The chain reported a strong Q2 2024, including a 6.7% increase in comparable store sales.
But how did Sprouts perform in Q3? We dove into the data to find out.
Given its rapidly-growing footprint, Sprouts’ strong year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth – 8.1% in Q3 2024, far above the industry average of 1.6% – may seem unremarkable. After all, a bigger fleet means more locations to contribute to the chain’s overall visit count. But for Sprouts, expansion is just part of the story. Throughout Q3 and most of Q2, the average number of visits to each of Sprouts Farmers Market’s locations also increased YoY, showing that the chain’s growing store count is meeting robust demand. And though the wider grocery space also saw a YoY uptick in visits per location, the increase was significantly lower (1.0% in Q3 for the segment as a whole, compared to 2.6% for Sprouts).
What can Sprouts expect this holiday season? In the past, location analytics have shown that while Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is a major milestone for traditional grocery stores, specialty grocers like Trader Joe’s see smaller visit peaks on the big day.
But though Sprouts Farmers Market is certainly positioned as a specialty grocer, it is somewhat more akin to a traditional supermarket than key competitors like Trader Joe’s. For one thing, Sprouts boasts a wider array of merchandise than Trader Joe’s – including a huge selection of fresh, organic fruits and vegetables. And while Sprouts has been leaning heavily into its growing portfolio of private-label products, they still account for a minority of the chain’s revenue (In Q2 2024, just about 20% of Sprouts’ revenue came from private-label items – while at Trader Joe’s, some 80% of products sold are own-label.)
Perhaps as a result of these differences, consumers interact with Sprouts in some ways as they would with a traditional supermarket – including during the holidays. On November 22nd, 2023, for example (last year’s Turkey Wednesday), visits to Sprouts were up 61.3% compared to the chain’s daily average for the 12-month period ending September 30th, 2024 – making it Sprouts’ busiest day of the year by far. Though this jump was smaller than the 79.2% visit spike seen by the wider grocery store category, it was significantly larger than the 41.8% boost experienced by Trader Joe’s – which draws more traffic on the day before Mother’s Day. (December 23rd was the second-busiest day of the year for all three.)
Additionally, like traditional grocery stores, Sprouts Farmers Market attracts more parental households, and fewer singles, than Trader Joe’s – another reason, perhaps, why it’s so busy on Turkey Wednesday.
Over the past twelve months, the share of families with children in Sprouts’ captured market stood at 27.8% – higher than Trader Joe’s 25.4% and in line with the industry-wide average of 27.4%. On the flip side, the share of one-person households in Sprouts’ captured market was 26.2%, lower than Trader Joe’s 29.5%, and once again more closely aligned with the somewhat-higher 27.7% observed for the grocery category as a whole. As a family-friendly chain that caters to parents on the hunt for healthy food items, Sprouts will likely be a key destination this year for households seeking to load up on ingredients for the holidays.
*Captured market analysis weights each census block group (CBG) feeding visits to the chain according to its share in the chain’s overall foot traffic – thus reflecting the profile of the chain’s actual visitor base.
Sprouts Farmers Market is a specialty grocer– but one that is often treated like a traditional supermarket. With stellar YoY visit and visit-per-location performance under its belt, Sprouts appears poised to be a stand-out beneficiary of both Turkey Wednesday and the day before Christmas Eve (December 23rd) this year. What else lies in store for Sprouts this year?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Fast-casual dining chain CAVA has had a great few years. The restaurant chain, which serves up health and flavor-forward Mediterranean fare, has increased its footprint massively over the past few years, and shows no signs of slowing down.
We took a closer look at the location intelligence data to understand what is driving success for the fast-casual dining chain.
CAVA, which has been opening restaurants at a rapid clip, is firmly in expansion mode. The restaurant chain featured 341 restaurants at the end of Q2 2024 – up from roughly 300 at the end of 2023 – and has set its sights on operating 1,000 locations by 2032.
Partly as a result of its growing footprint, CAVA’s foot traffic – already elevated in 2023 – has continued to surge throughout 2024. The chain achieved double-digit year-over-year (YoY) visit growth during every month of the year so far, with September visits up 24.9% YoY. By comparison, the broader fast-casual dining sector – which is also thriving – saw more modest YoY visit growth over the same period, as well as some minor YoY declines in January and September.
Still, though much of CAVA’s YoY foot traffic growth may be attributed to its rapid expansion – after all, more restaurants mean more opportunities for diners to try a lemon chicken or harissa avocado bowl – CAVA’s individual locations are also drawing more traffic. In all but one month of 2024 – January, when inclement weather led to a retail slowdown nationwide – the average number of visits to each CAVA restaurant also rose significantly. And in August and September 2024, visits per location grew by 15.0% and 9.9% YoY, respectively.
These trends suggest that CAVA’s expansion strategy is leaning into robust demand – and has succeeded in generating excitement and visit growth in both new and existing markets.
One factor that may be helping CAVA drive traffic is the growing diversity of its customer base. Analyzing changes in CAVA’s captured market over time with demographics from STI: PopStats shows that the median household income (HHI) of the brand’s visitor base has dropped over the past few years. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each census block group (CBG) in its trade area according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of the business’ actual visitor base.) In Q3 2021, the median HHI of CAVA’s captured market was $107.5k – much higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. But as the chain has expanded, the median HHI of its visitor base has steadily declined, reaching $92.3K by Q3 2024.
Similarly, using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to look at the psychographic makeup of CAVA’s trade areas reveals that the share of “Ultra-Wealthy Families” in the chain’s captured market has also declined – from 22.9% 2021 to 17.1% in 2024. At the same time, the share of “Young Urban Singles” grew from 5.4% to 7.3%.
This shift suggests that as CAVA expands, it is welcoming a broader and more diverse customer base – positioning it for continued growth as it opens new locations.
CAVA continues to exceed expectations, opening stores at a rapid clip while maintaining visit numbers and appealing to an ever-growing range of customers.
What might the final quarter of the year hold in store for the fast-casual chain?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up to date with the latest data-driven dining insights.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
1. AI is raising the bar for physical retail as shoppers arrive more informed, more intentional, and less tolerant of friction – though the impact varies by category and format.
2. As discovery shifts upstream, stores increasingly serve as confirmation rather than discovery points where shoppers validate decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
3. AI-based tools can improve in-store performance by removing operational friction – shortening trips in efficiency-led formats and supporting deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
4. By embedding expertise directly into frontline workflows, AI helps retailers deliver consistent, high-quality service despite high turnover and limited training windows.
5. AI enables precise, location-specific marketing and execution, allowing retailers of any size to align assortments, staffing, and messaging with real local demand.
6. Retailers can also use AI to manage their store fleets with greater discipline and understand where to expand, where to avoid cannibalization, and where to rightsize based on observed demand rather than static assumptions.
7. AI is not a universal lever in physical retail; its value depends on the store format, and in discovery-driven models it should support operations behind the scenes rather than reshape the customer experience.
Physical retail has faced repeated claims of obsolescence, from the rise of e-commerce to the shock of COVID. Each time, analysts predicted a structural decline in brick-and-mortar. And each time, physical retail adapted.
AI has triggered a similar round of predictions. Much of the current discussion frames retail’s future as a binary outcome: either stores become heavily automated, or e-commerce becomes so optimized that physical locations lose relevance altogether.
But past disruptions point in a different direction. E-commerce changed how physical retail operated by raising expectations for omnichannel integration, speed, and clarity of purpose. Retailers that adjusted store formats, merchandising, and operations accordingly went on to drive sustained growth.
AI likely represents another inflection point for physical retail. As shoppers arrive with more information, clearer intent, and even less tolerance for friction than in the age of "old-fashioned" e-commerce, physical stores will remain – but the standards they are held to continue to rise.
This report presents four ways retailers are using AI to get – and stay – ahead as physical retail adapts to this next wave of disruption.
E-commerce moved discovery earlier in the shopping journey. Instead of beginning the process in-store, many shoppers now arrive at brick-and-mortar locations after having deeply researched products, comparing options, and narrowing choices online – entering the store to validate rather than initiate their purchasing decision.
AI-powered shopping accelerates this pattern. Conversational assistants, recommendation engines, and AI-driven discovery across search and social reduce the time and effort required to evaluate options – and this shift is changing consumers' expectations around the in-store experience.
Apple shows what it looks like when a physical store is built for well-informed shoppers. Given the prevalence of AI-powered search and assistants in high-consideration categories like consumer electronics, Apple customers likely arrive at the Apple Store with more preferences already shaped by AI-assisted research than other retail categories.
Apple Stores were designed for this kind of customer long before AI became widespread. The layout puts working products directly in customers’ hands, merchandising emphasizes live use over promotional signage, and associates are trained to answer detailed technical questions rather than walk shoppers through basic options.
That alignment is showing up in store behavior. Even as AI-powered shopping expands, Apple Stores continue to see rising foot traffic and longer visits thanks to the store's specific and curated role in the customer journey – a place where customers confirm decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
Some applications of AI extend trends that e-commerce has already introduced. Others address operational challenges that previously required manual coordination or tradeoffs.
AI can reduce friction and make store visits more predictable by improving staffing allocation, reducing checkout delays, optimizing inventory placement, and managing traffic flow. These changes reduce friction without altering the visible customer experience.
Sam's Club offers a clear, recent example of AI solving a specific in-store bottleneck. For years, customers completed checkout only to face a second line at the exit, where an employee manually scanned paper receipts and spot-checked carts.
In early 2024, Sam’s Club introduced computer vision-powered exit gates, allowing customers to exit the store without stopping as AI algorithms instantly captured images of the items in their carts and matched them against digital purchase data. Employees previously tasked with receipt checks could now shift their focus to member assistance and in-store support.
The impact was measurable. Sam’s Club reported that customers now exit stores 23% faster than under manual receipt checks, a result confirmed by a sustained nationwide decline in average dwell time. During the same period, in-store traffic increased 3.3% year-over-year – demonstrating how removing friction with AI can deliver tangible gains.
AI optimizes stores for different outcomes. At Sam’s Club, it shortens visits by removing friction from task-driven trips. At Apple, upstream research leads to longer visits focused on testing, questions, and decision validation. In both cases, AI aligns store execution with shopper intent – prioritizing speed and throughput in efficiency-led formats and deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
Beyond shaping store roles and streamlining operations, AI can also address a long-standing challenge in physical retail: delivering consistent, high-quality expertise on the sales floor despite high turnover and seasonal staffing. In the past, retailers relied on heavy training investments that often failed to pay off. AI can now embed that expertise directly into frontline workflows, allowing associates to deliver confident, informed service regardless of tenure and strengthening the in-store experience at scale.
In May 2025, Lowe’s rolled out a major in-store AI enhancement called Mylow Companion, an AI-powered assistant that equips frontline staff with real-time, expert support on product details, home improvement projects, inventory, and customer questions.
Mylow Companion is embedded directly into associates’ handheld devices, delivering instant guidance through natural, conversational interactions, including voice-to-text. This enables even newly hired employees to provide confident, expert-level advice from day one, while helping experienced associates upsell and cross-sell more effectively. The tool complements Mylow, a customer-facing AI advisor launched the same year to help shoppers plan projects and discover the right products, leading to increased customer satisfaction.
While AI alone cannot solve demand challenges—especially amid macroeconomic pressure on large-ticket discretionary spending—early signals suggest it may still play a meaningful role. Location analytics indicate narrowing year-over-year visit gaps at Lowe’s post-deployment, pointing to a potentially improved in-store experience. And Home Depot’s recent announcement of agentic AI tools developed with Google Cloud suggests that these technologies are becoming table stakes in this category.
As more retailers roll out similar capabilities, those that moved earlier are better positioned to help set the bar – and benefit as the market adapts.
Beyond improving the in-store experience, AI also gives retailers a powerful way to drive foot traffic through precision marketing. By processing large volumes of behavioral, location, and timing data, AI can help retailers decide who to reach, when to engage them, where to activate, and what message or assortment will resonate – shifting marketing from broad seasonal pushes to campaigns grounded in local demand.
Target offers an early example of this approach before AI became widespread. Stores near college campuses have long tailored assortments and messaging around the academic calendar, especially during the back-to-school season. In August, these locations emphasize dorm essentials, compact storage, bedding, tech accessories, and affordable décor – supported by campaigns aimed at students and parents preparing for move-in. That localized approach has been effective in driving in-store traffic to Target stores near college campuses, with these venues seeing consistent visit spikes every August and outperforming the national average across multiple back-to-school seasons from 2023 to 2025.
AI makes local execution repeatable at scale. By analyzing visit patterns, past performance, and timing signals across thousands of locations, retailers can decide which products to promote, how to staff stores, and when to run campaigns at each location. Marketing, merchandising, and store operations then act on the same demand signals instead of separate assumptions.
Crucially, AI makes this level of localization accessible to retailers of all sizes. What once required the resources and institutional knowledge of a big-box giant can now be achieved through precision marketing and demand forecasting tools, allowing brands to adapt each store’s messaging, assortment, and execution to the unique rhythms of its community.
Beyond improving performance at individual stores, AI can also give retailers a clearer view of how their entire store fleet is working – and where it should grow, contract, or change. By analyzing foot traffic patterns, trade areas, customer overlap, and visit frequency across locations, AI helps retailers identify which sites are truly reaching their target audiences and which are underperforming relative to local demand.
AI also plays a critical role in smarter expansion. Retailers can use it to identify markets and neighborhoods where demand is growing, customer overlap is low, and incremental visits are likely – reducing the risk of cannibalization when opening new stores. By modeling how shoppers move between existing locations, AI can flag when a proposed site will attract new customers versus simply shifting traffic from nearby stores, grounding expansion decisions in observed behavior rather than demographic proxies or intuition alone.
Equally important, AI helps retailers recognize when expansion no longer makes sense. By tracking total fleet traffic, visit growth, and trade-area saturation, retailers can assess whether new stores are adding net demand or diluting performance. The same signals can identify locations where demand has structurally declined, informing rightsizing decisions and store closures. In this way, AI supports a more disciplined approach to physical retail – one that treats the store fleet as a dynamic system to be optimized over time, rather than a footprint that only grows.
The impact of AI on physical retail will vary significantly by category and format. Not every successful store experience is built around efficiency, prediction, or pre-qualification. Retailers with clearly differentiated offline value don’t necessarily benefit from forcing AI into customer-facing experiences that dilute what makes their stores work.
“Treasure hunt” formats are a clear example. Off-price retailers like TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington continue to drive strong traffic by offering unpredictability, scarcity, and discovery that cannot be replicated – or meaningfully enhanced – through AI-driven search or recommendation. The appeal lies precisely in not knowing what you’ll find. For these retailers, heavy investment in AI-led personalization or pre-shopping guidance risks undermining the core experience rather than improving it.
Similar dynamics apply in other categories. Independent boutiques, vintage stores, resale shops, and certain specialty retailers succeed by offering curation, serendipity, and human taste rather than optimization. In these cases, AI may still play a role behind the scenes – supporting inventory planning, pricing, or site selection – but it should not reshape the customer-facing experience. AI is most valuable when it reinforces a retailer’s existing value proposition. Formats built around discovery, surprise, or experiential browsing should protect those strengths, even as other parts of the retail landscape move toward greater efficiency and intent-driven shopping.
AI is forcing physical retail to evolve with intention. By creating a supportive environment for customers who arrive with made-up minds, removing friction inside the store, offering the best in-store services, and orchestrating demand with greater precision, retailers are adapting to the new world standards set by AI. All five strategies focus on aligning stores with shopper intent – what customers want, how the store supports it, and when the interaction happens.
The retailers that win in this next era won’t be the ones that use AI to simply automate what already exists. They’ll be the ones that use it to sharpen the role of physical retail – turning stores into places that help shoppers validate decisions, deliver value beyond convenience, and show up at exactly the right moment in a customer’s journey.
In the age of AI, physical retail wins by becoming more intentional – designed around informed shoppers, optimized for the right outcome in each format, and activated at moments when demand is real.
If 2025 proved anything, it’s that the American consumer hasn’t stopped spending – they’ve just become incredibly selective about who earns their dollar. As we look toward 2026, success isn't just about weathering headwinds; it's about identifying the specific operational levers that drive traffic.
We analyzed the data to identify ten retail and dining standouts (presented in no particular order) that are especially well-positioned for the year ahead. From grocery icons mastering hyper-authenticity to fitness challengers proving that low price doesn't mean low quality, these companies have demonstrated a powerful understanding of their audience and the operational agility to meet them where they are.
Here – in no particular order – are the brands setting the pace for 2026.
When we pick retailers for our Ten Top list, there are some that rest on the edgier side and others that look fairly down the middle. Picking H-E-B, a grocer that has seen monthly visits up year over year (YoY) for all but one month since April of 2021, is clearly not one of the bolder claims. But consistent success shouldn’t preclude a retailer from receiving its well deserved kudos, and there are some unique reasons that H-E-B specifically needs to be included this year.
H-E-B exemplifies the single most important trend in retail: the need for a brand to have authenticity and a clear reason for being. The retailer understands its audience, and as a result, it’s able to optimize its merchandising, promotions, and experience to best serve that loyal customer base. This pops in the data when we see the loyalty H-E-B commands, especially when compared to the grocery average.
In addition, the chain has also embraced adjacent innovation, leveraging its existing fleet by adding True Texas BBQ to a growing number of locations. The offering not only helps maximize the revenue potential of each visit, it taps into the core identity of the brand, further deepening customer connection and authenticity. The strategy also signals H-E-B’s understanding of emerging consumer behaviors – particularly the increase in shoppers turning to grocery stores for affordable, restaurant-quality lunches. And this combination of expanding revenue channels while heightening H-E-B’s uniqueness should also carry over into the value and impact of its retail media network.
In short, H-E-B has not only identified a critical route to success, it continues to embrace channels that widen revenue potential while doubling down on foundational strengths.
In 2024, Michaels held nearly 32.0% of overall visit share among the top four retailers in the wider crafts and hobby space. By the second half of 2025, that number had skyrocketed to just over 40.0% – driven largely by the closures of key competitors JoAnn Fabrics and Party City.
And it isn’t just that the removal of competitors is increasing the share of overall visits; the rate of capture appears to be accelerating. In Q2 2025, visits rose 7.3% YoY as Michaels began absorbing traffic from Party City, which closed the bulk of its locations by March. Growth strengthened further in Q3, with visits up 13.1% YoY following the completion of JoAnn’s shutdown in May. But during the all-important Q4, traffic surged even higher YoY, suggesting that that consolidation alone doesn’t fully explain the gains.
While the tailwinds of competitor closures clearly help, there are other strategies that are helping the retailer maximize this wave. Whether it be NFL partnerships to boost the retailer’s Sunday role in American households, a push into the framing space with 10-minute custom framing, the addition of JoAnn’s branded merchandise to its offerings, or even a challenge to Etsy’s online dominance with a new marketplace – Michaels is making moves to take full advantage of their improved positioning. There is also an argument to be made that Michaels is the retailer best poised to benefit from the segment’s consolidation, given that it is also the most oriented to a higher income consumer among top players in the category. This could help unlock other more focused concepts and promotions, and better align with an audience now looking for a retail replacement.
Walmart is the dominant player in physical retail.
And they leverage this position to push forward new offerings that extend revenue potential while maximizing per-store impact. They are a pioneer in the retail media space and have been using their unique reach to push that side of the business forward. Add to that the fact that they have been among the savviest players in all of retail in identifying the ideal approach to omnichannel, utilizing their massive physical footprint to improve their reach via BOPIS and store-fulfilled e-commerce.
All good reasons for inclusion, right?
But, here’s the kicker - from a pure visit perspective, things are going from good to better. Between January and September 2025, Walmart visits were essentially flat year over year – a good position for a retailer with such a massive reach and such strength shown in recent years. Yet, since October, visits have actually been on the rise, with Q4 2025 showing a 2.5% YoY traffic increase and several weeks exceeding 4.0% YoY.
A retail giant with even more potential growth than we might have expected – and one that’s pushing the very strategies we believe are the key to future success? That’s certainly a reason for inclusion.
Including a department store again on this year’s list? It seems counterintuitive to many of the narratives that ran through 2025, especially as middle-class consumers continue to be squeezed financially. However, Dillard’s still appears to be an exception to the rule, with performance more closely aligned to that of luxury department store brands like Bloomingdales & Nordstrom than to its true competitive set.
In 2025, visitation to Dillard’s was essentially flat YoY – though the chain has consistently outperformed the wider department store category. Dillard’s stands at a unique point somewhere between a mid-tier and luxury department store, and that distinction may be its secret to success. The retailer continues to wow with strong private label offerings that rival and often exceed national brands, a diverse merchandise mix, and locations that often benefit from indoor mall traffic trends.
While Dillard’s lags behind the wider department store category, for example, in terms of repeat visitation and the share of wealthy visitors, these factors may actually create an advantage. Efforts by Dillard's to refresh its product mix through limited-edition capsule collections and new brand launches may be helping it attract a steady inflow of economically diverse new shoppers. And the ability to continually win over new segments without alienating a “core customer” could be a strength amid economic headwinds and waning consumer sentiment.
At the same time, a more diverse visitor profile means that Dillard’s can truly be the department store for many consumers, with a product range that strikes a chord with different shopper segments.
Department stores truly aren’t dead, and those who have found their reason to exist continue to garner attention with shoppers.
If the retail industry had a symbol for 2025, it was probably Labubu. The toy-and-collectible-turned–bag charm took consumers by storm in the second quarter of the year, and POP MART – the retailer responsible for bringing Labubus stateside – quickly became an overnight sensation. Visits to the chain surged over the summer at the height of the craze, while trade areas expanded as customers traveled significant distances to get their hands on a doll.
And although the frenzy cooled somewhat in early fall, visits to POP MART locations like the one in Tulalip, WA began trending upward once again in November 2025 as the holiday season approached, surging even higher in December. Trade area size also increased dramatically during the holiday shopping period, as consumers rushed to get their hands on the chain’s coveted line of festive blind boxes.
As demonstrated by the recent Starbucks Bearista craze, consumers are all-in on cool collectible items that make life more fun – a trend POP MART, strategically located in high-traffic malls popular with younger shoppers, is uniquely positioned to ride. During times of economic uncertainty, consumers crave small ways to indulge, and affordable collectibles that are cute, cuddly, and fun have worked their way into the American zeitgeist.
So, what is next for POP MART? Can it continue to sustain its momentum? It seems likely that Labubus are here to stay, at least for a little while longer, before the retailer hopefully strikes it big with the next “must have”.
When all is said and done, 2021-2025 will likely be viewed as a pivotal turning point for the U.S. coffee industry. As the country recovered from the pandemic, consumer interaction with coffee brands fundamentally shifted. With more employees working from home – bypassing the traditional pre-work coffee run – visit trends migrated to later in the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, industry-wide dwell times shortened as consumers renewed their focus on convenience.
This move away from the sit-down café experience placed significant pressure on industry leaders, accelerating the shift toward drive-thru and mobile order-and-pay options. This moment of friction also created space for drive-thru-centric challengers like Dutch Bros, which rapidly expanded on the strength of speed and menu innovation.
Among these challengers, 7 Brew stands out as a fast-rising powerhouse heading into 2026. Expanding outward from its Arkansas roots, 7 Brew has been strategic about market entry and site selection for its unique double-drive-thru format. And with a concept that resonates with younger demographics and a footprint adaptable to various geographies, the coffee chain has become a go-to destination for rural and small-town communities, while also maintaining solid reach among more traditional coffee segments like wealthy suburbanites and urban singles. Thanks in part to this broad appeal, 7 Brew is well-positioned for future growth, even as it faces stiffer competition in new markets.
It is no secret that most of the growth in the QSR space over the past two decades has been driven by chicken concepts. Chick-fil-A, rising from a regional chain to a national player throughout the late 1990s and 2000s, was the first to disrupt the burger’s stranglehold on QSR. Raising Cane’s followed in the 2010s with a model built on menu simplicity and operational excellence, earning its place as one of the largest chains in the category. More recently, hot chicken has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments – and Dave’s Hot Chicken is leading the charge.
No single factor accounts for Dave’s growth from a lone unit in Los Angeles to over 350 units today. Certainly, a wide assortment of sauces and flavor profiles has resonated with U.S. consumers who are increasingly seeking spicier products, while Dave’s 'rebel' brand positioning has successfully attracted younger audiences. And at a time when many QSR and fast-casual chains are abandoning urban locations in favor of suburban markets, Dave’s Hot Chicken continues to open predominantly in urban settings – a strategy that may prove advantageous as migration patterns shift back toward major cities this year.
With so much of the industry’s expansion driven by chicken concepts, it is natural to ask: Have we reached 'peak chicken'? While we are certainly seeing other categories gain traction – think CAVA – Dave’s unique product mix and edgier marketing should help it stand out, even amidst increased competition.
While many discretionary retail categories – including consumer electronics, sporting goods, home improvement, and furniture – are still waiting for post-pandemic demand to recover, housewares retailers have generally enjoyed solid visit trends in 2025. Although consumers may not be financially positioned for large-scale remodels, we are now five years past the pandemic, and many residents (many of whom still work from home) are looking to refresh their living spaces.
It may therefore come as no surprise that TJX Companies’ HomeGoods and Homesense brands had an exceptional 2025 and are well-positioned to repeat this success in 2026.
This year, we observed a behavioral shift among middle-income consumers, including a clear “trade down” from mid-tier department stores and other discretionary categories. In addition, accumulated housing wear-and-tear, the recent bankruptcies of value-oriented competitors such as Conn’s and At Home, and the enduring appeal of the treasure hunt retail model, have all reinforced the brands’ momentum. Taken together, these trends leave HomeGoods and Homesense poised for both continued unit growth and increased traffic in the year ahead.
With the heightened emphasis on health and wellness post-pandemic, fitness is proving to be a category with remarkable staying power well beyond New Year’s resolution season – even in an era of macroeconomic uncertainty. Whether it’s pumping iron, hitting the treadmill, or joining fitness classes, staying healthy no longer requires breaking the bank – for just a dollar a day or less, gymgoers can build strength and endurance, achieve their rep goals, and hit their mileage targets. And affordable fitness chains – those that charge less than $30 per month – are reaping the benefits, outperforming more expensive gyms for YoY visit growth.
Among this value-oriented fitness cohort, EōS saw outsized traffic growth in 2025, with both overall visits and average visits per location outpacing competitors as the chain expands its footprint. EōS’s motto, “High Value, Low Price,” appears to be resonating strongly – especially in a year when similar value propositions are driving momentum across off-price retailers, value grocers, and dollar stores. Longer-than-average dwell times at EōS provide another encouraging signal, suggesting that its amenities, including pools, saunas, basketball courts, and equipment assortments typically found in higher-priced gyms, are truly connecting with visitors. And since visitors who stay longer are more likely to return – and to renew their memberships – EōS is well-positioned to convert this year’s traffic gains into lasting market share.
Eating and entertainment are a match made in heaven — and by leaning into a subscription model that meets price-sensitive customers where they are, Chuck E. Cheese has solidified its position as a standout in the eatertainment category.
Nearly 50 years old, this evergreen children’s entertainment concept has stood the test of time and now boasts roughly 500 venues nationwide. Its perennial tagline – “where a kid can be a kid” – still resonates with today’s children and with the parents who grew up with the brand. After languishing for several years in the wake of COVID, the company turned things around with a revamped Summer Fun Pass launched on April 30th, 2024. The offer of unlimited play per month sparked a dramatic boost in customer loyalty, and the model proved so successful that the company extended it year-round with a family pass as low as $7.99 per month.
This strategy has helped sustain visit growth throughout 2025. Despite closing several locations during the year, visits to Chuck E. Cheese rose 8.3% YoY – well above the flat eatertainment average. And the company’s loyalty rates outpaced last year from August through November, indicating that the offering isn’t losing steam and that customers continue to respond enthusiastically.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlights that there is no single path to success in 2026.
H-E-B and Chuck E. Cheese demonstrate the power of deepening loyalty through authentic experiences and value-driven memberships. Michaels and HomeGoods show how savvy retailers can capitalize on competitor consolidation and changing consumer spending habits. Meanwhile, Walmart and 7 Brew prove that even in saturated markets, operational innovation can drive fresh momentum.
As we move deeper into 2026, the brands that win will be those that, like the ten profiled here, combine a clear understanding of their unique value proposition with the agility to execute on it.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
